Myanmar Mobile Telecoms Market: forecasts 2013-2027 and consumer and SME survey

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013

Myanmar mobile telecoms market:

forecasts 2013–2027 and consumer and SME survey

Analysys Mason report

Tom Mowat, Tom Rebbeck and Nuno Afonso

June 2013


List of figures [1]

General background on the Myanmar market

Myanmar’s GDP nominal annual and per capita (PPP)

Myanmar’s total population by age and urban residents

Average monthly household income (2012)

Map of Myanmar and major cities

Share of total exports by sector (2011)

Telecommunication services’ subscribers and penetration

Deployed base transceiver stations by mid 2012

Payment method for mobile services by user type

Postpaid penetration by monthly household income

Overview of results

Implied mobile penetration in Myanmar

Implied mobile penetration from the survey results

Current adoption of mobile services

Urban mobile penetration by gender

Average monthly income per household by number of SIMs used

Average monthly income per household by number of SIMs used by city

Urban mobile users penetration by age

Outgoing minutes (% of respondents)

VAS, data usage and SMS usage (% of respondents)

VAS usage by age

Mobile services usage by business size

2

Interest in mobile services

Residential consumers for whom a mobile phone would fulfil a need

Likelihood that respondent would start using a mobile phone in the next year

Residential consumers for whom a mobile phone would fulfil a need by

income

Likelihood that respondent would start using a mobile phone in the next

year by income

Business consumers for whom a mobile phone would fulfil a need or

solve a business problem

Likelihood that respondent would start using a mobile phone in the next year

Business consumers for whom a mobile phone would fulfil a need or

solve a business problem by business size

Likelihood that respondent would start using a mobile phone in the next

year by business size

Drivers and barriers for adoption of mobile services

Factors considered when selecting a mobile operator (% respondents)

Reasons for not purchasing a mobile phone

Factors considered when selecting a mobile operator (% of respondents)

Market forecast

Mobile subscribers and population penetration (2012-2027)

Comparison of our forecast for penetration in Myanmar and growth in

similar markets

Service revenue in USD by consumer type (2012-2027)

Monthly ARPU in USD by consumer type (2012-2027)

Service revenue in USD by location (2012-2027)

Monthly ARPU in USD by location (2012-2027)


List of figures [2]

Competitive landscape: Residential

Current satisfaction level (% of respondents)

Most important reason to churn (% of respondents)

Current satisfaction level by age

Churn among very and somewhat dissatisfied users by age

Distribution of spend per month on mobile services of existing users

Distribution of expected spend per month on mobile services of non-users

Price paid per device, users (% of respondents)

Expected price per device, non-users

Price paid per SIM, users

Expected paid per SIM, non-users

Price per minute (% of respondents)

Price per SMS (% of respondents)

Where mobile users bought the SIM and mobile handset (% of respondents)

Competitive landscape: Business

Current satisfaction level (% of respondents)

Most important reason to churn (% of respondents)

Current satisfaction level by number of employees

Most important reason to churn by number of employees

Average spend per month, per employee/mobile connection

Average expected spend per month, per employee/mobile connection

Price paid per SIM, users

Expected paid per SIM, non-users

3

Annex: Market forecast assumptions

India’s ARPU and penetration comparison

Population split by location (2012)

Assumptions for estimation of mobile spend

Van Westendorp price sensitivity: illustration of intersections


The average monthly household income in urban areas is three times the

value in rural areas

▪ The income values for urban areas are based on the survey

results

– Our sample size per city was:

▪ Mandalay - 200 respondents

▪ Mawlamyne - 200 respondents

▪ Taunggyi - 200 respondents

▪ Yangon – 400 respondents

▪ The estimate for the income in rural areas assumed a value

of USD270 for the country

▪ In this report we provide further detail on how the income

levels vary within urban and rural areas

– Urban population: using mobile services and not using

– Rural population: living in the borders and living inside the

country

10

Average monthly household income (2012)

Background

476

270

161

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Urban Country Rural

US

D


The results in our survey provide a reasonable representation of mobile

phone users in urban areas

▪ The penetration implied by our survey is in line with mobile

penetration figures we have seen, providing comfort that the

sample is reasonably representative

▪ Our survey implies a mobile penetration figure of around 11-

13%

– The survey questioned adults between the age of 18 and

65 years old in urban areas

– Of these, 49% indicated they own a mobile phone (or

around 11% of the population)

– In rural areas, mobile coverage is almost non-existent. We

assume that mobile penetration in these rural areas is

close to zero

– Mobile penetration of people under 18 and over 65 will not

be zero, but can be assumed to be low.

19 Results

Implied mobile penetration in Myanmar

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

% o

f p

op

ula

tio

n

Rural population

Urban population(not surveyed as<18 or >65 yrs)

Urban populationwith no mobilephone

Urban populationwith a mobilephone


About the authors

Tom Mowat (Principal Analyst) Tom is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Asia–Pacific research programme and

is based in our Singapore office. Tom recently rejoined Analysys Mason from PwC, where he was a Manager in the

TMT Consulting team. He has extensive expertise in fixed and mobile broadband services, strategy and forecasting,

regulatory issues, cost-modelling and the particular issues affecting telecoms markets in developing regions. His

previous role at Analysys Mason was within the Custom Research team, developing project-based analysis for key

industry clients. Tom's experience includes leading numerous projects for telecoms service providers, vendors, and

regulatory and industry bodies, as an analyst and consultant. Tom has degrees in mathematical and particle physics

from the University of Nottingham and the University of Durham.

Tom Rebbeck (Head of Custom Research) leads Analysys Mason’s Custom Research team, drawing on his more

than 12 years of experience in the telecoms sector. He rejoined Analysys Mason from Telefónica, where he was a

Global Project Manager in the Mobile Data Group. In this role, Tom was involved in the launch of a number of

principal services across Telefónica’s worldwide footprint, including Telefónica-branded applications, application

stores and mobile advertising. Prior to this, he was a Principal Analyst for Analysys Mason, involved in numerous

strategic projects for clients.

Nuno Afonso (Consultant, Custom Research) joined Analysys Mason in 2010, having participated in a wide variety

of projects across different areas. These included mobile backhaul, dark fibre, spectrum, telecoms software and

CSPs' operational efficiency. As part of the project scope, Nuno conducted market analysis, market sizing and

forecast as well as benchmarks. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Nuno led numerous projects with an international

scope, including the optimisation of performance management methods for a leading financial services provider in

Belgium; the assessment of market entry strategy in Latin America for a key player in the water and waste

management sector; and strategic planning for an organisation in the FMCG sector. Nuno has a Business

Administration degree from Universidade Nova de Lisboa and an MBA from Manchester Business School.

65


About Analysys Mason

Knowing what’s going on is one thing. Understanding how to take advantage of events is quite another. Our ability to understand the

complex workings of telecoms, media and technology (TMT) industries and draw practical conclusions, based on the specialist

knowledge of our people, is what sets Analysys Mason apart. We deliver our key services via two channels: consulting and research.

66

Consulting

Our focus is exclusively on TMT.

We support multi-billion dollar investments, advise clients on

regulatory matters, provide spectrum valuation and auction support,

and advise on operational performance, business planning and strategy.

We have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver tangible

results for clients around the world.

For more information, please visit www.analysysmason.com/consulting.

Research

We analyse, track and forecast the different services accessed by

consumers and enterprises, as well as the software, infrastructure

and technology delivering those services.

Research clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence in

addition to direct access to our team of expert analysts.

Our dedicated Custom Research team undertakes specialised and

bespoke projects for clients.

For more information, please visit www.analysysmason.com/research.


Research from Analysys Mason

We provide dedicated coverage of developments in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors,

through a range of research programmes that focus on different services and regions of the world.

67

Alongside our standardised suite of research programmes, our Custom Research team undertakes specialised, bespoke research

projects for clients. The dedicated team offers tailored investigations and answers complex questions on markets, competitors and

services with customised industry intelligence and insights.

To find out more, please visit www.analysysmason.com/research.


Consulting from Analysys Mason

For more than 25 years, our consultants have

been bringing the benefits of applied intelligence

to enable clients around the world to make

the most of their opportunities.

68

Our clients in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT)

sectors operate in dynamic markets where change is

constant. We help shape their understanding of the future

so they can thrive in these demanding conditions. To do

that, we have developed rigorous methodologies that

deliver real results for clients around the world.

Our focus is exclusively on TMT. We advise clients on

regulatory matters, help shape spectrum policy and develop

spectrum strategy, support multi-billion dollar investments,

advise on operational performance and develop new

business strategies. Such projects result in a depth of

knowledge and a range of expertise that sets us apart.

We help clients solve their most pressing problems,

enabling them to go farther, faster and achieve their

commercial objectives.

To find out more, please visit

www.analysysmason.com/consulting.


Published by Analysys Mason Limited • Bush House • North West Wing • Aldwych • London • WC2B 4PJ • UK

Tel: +44 (0)845 600 5244 • Fax: +44 (0)845 528 0760 • Email: [email protected] • www.analysysmason.com/research • Registered in England No. 5177472

© Analysys Mason Limited 2013. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical,

photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior written permission of the publisher.

Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any client-

specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only.

Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK

publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark.

Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or

damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party.

Myanmar Mobile Telecoms Market: forecasts 2013-2027 and consumer and SME survey

Business

Transcript of Myanmar Mobile Telecoms Market: forecasts 2013-2027 and consumer and SME survey