“Myanmar economic prospects and risks” presentation at 14 th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon,...
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By Adam McCarty ([email protected] “Myanmar economic prospects and risks” presentation at 14 th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon, Myanmar (13 September, 2012) www.mekongeconomics.com
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Transcript of “Myanmar economic prospects and risks” presentation at 14 th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon,...
LOCAL CONCERNS GLOBAL APPROACHES
By Adam McCarty ([email protected])
“Myanmar economic prospects and risks”
presentation at 14th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon, Myanmar (13 September, 2012)
www.mekongeconomics.com
Contents
1. Perspective: development path (Gapminder) – slower but not stagnant; need to reindustrialise.
2. Key data
3. Macroeconomics and trade
4. Themes to understand
5. SWOT and Business Opportunities
Poorest in ASEAN
GDP: Roll a dice
Country Data source 2007/2008 2008/2009
2000 to
2008 GDI/GDP ICOR
Myanmar Official 11.9 10.7 12.6 12.4 1.0
ESCAP 5.5 2.0
IMF 5.5 4.5 4.6
ADB 5.5 3.6 6.0
(2012)
The Economist 3.4 0.9
China 11.4 10.0 9.3 39.3 4.2
Vietnam 8.5 7.0 7.1 34.1 4.8
Other indicative and key data
• Electricity sales grew 4.5% p.a. 2002-2009• Cement sales grew 1.8% p.a. 2004-2009• Poverty 26% (IHLCS 2010)• 26% of households have grid electricity• Adult literacy 92% (?)• Infant mortality rate 50/1,000• Life expectancy 62 years• 13 million (of 60 million) aged 15-28 years
Macroeconomic management a concern
IMF: Kyat 30-40% over-valued (expect depreciation)Exchange rate unified March 2012
Deficits widen and few export items
68% of exports
are gas, logs,
and legumes.
Clothing
and footwear
are only 8%
of exports.
Themes to understand
Public Investment: small total; central projects; locals rely on own-funds (WB PEFA). Tax revenue 3% of GDP.
Administrative capacities/systems (FDI in manufacturing, hotels and tourism totalled $53.6m during 2005-2010)
Tertiary education: generational variance
Logistics performance and infrastructure: Marginally worst in ASEAN
Business Opportunities
• SHORT TERM:– Tourism– Extractives: oil, gas, mining– Licences (e.g. telecoms)
• LONG TERM:– 2015 elections are market entry trigger.
LOCAL CONCERNS GLOBAL APPROACHES
By Adam McCarty ([email protected]),
www.mekongeconomics.com
QUESTIONS?
“Myanmar economic prospects and risks”
presentation at 14th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon, Myanmar (13 September, 2012)
