An Honors Thesis (HONORS 499) By Matthew John Gauen Thesis ...
My Honors Thesis Presentation
Transcript of My Honors Thesis Presentation
WHAT, WHY, HOWEMPIRICAL, ETHICAL, AND POLITICAL APPROACHES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
ELKIN ISAAC SYMPOSIUM
APRIL 23, 2009
NATHAN DE WINKLE
THE QUESTIONS
• WHAT are the effects of CO2 emissions, and the global trends?
• WHY is this an issue we need to be faced?
• HOW can the world and its governments do to address the problem?
THE TREND
THE EFFECTS
• Seasonal shifts
• Flooding
• Crop failure
• A new ice age
THE ASSESSMENT
• “Taken as a whole, the range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time.” (IPCC 2007)
WILL IT CHANGE
• CO2 is emitted by nearly every human activity
• Environmental protection is a normal good
– SO2 in the United States
• The Environmental Kuznets Curve
ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE (EKC)
• Original theory was by Simon Kuznets in 1955
• Adapted for the environment by Thomas Panayotou in 1993
• Predicts an “inverted-u” relationship between GDP and level of a polutant
RESULTS: GERMANY2
2.5
33
.54
pce
mit
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
GOAL OF RESEARCH
• Test the EKC as it relates to CO2 emissions.
• See if any nation has begun to lower their emissions.
• Determine if there is a global GDP threshold for an emissions turning point
[
PREVIOUS RESEARCH
• Arrow, et al; Stern, 1998; Stern & Common, 2001– Need to take policy decisions into account for
CO2
• Schalesse, 1998– There is evidence for EKC with CO2
• Moomaw, 1997; Cole, 2003– “No Income Determinism for CO2 Emissions”
– Thus EKCs have little predictive power
THEORETICAL MODEL
• CO2= f (GDP)
• CO2t = B1 + B2(GDPt) + B3(GDPt2)
+B4(GDPt3) …+By(GDPt
n)
EMPIRICAL MODEL
• Add indicator variables to control for historical events
– E.g. US presidential administrations
– The reform and opening up in China
DATA
• 5 countries– US, Germany, India, Brazil, China
• Left hand side variable– Per Capita Emissions: 1950-2004
• From Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center at Oak Ridge National Laboratory
• Right hand side variable– Per Capita GDP: 1950-2004
• From the Penn World Table v. 6.2
10
15
20
25
30
35
pcg
dp
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
ADJUSTMENTS
• Need to be preformed to avoid auto-correlation:
• So applied a first differencing model
RESULTS
Country EKC?
GDP level for
Peak Emissions Reached?
United States Yes $42,912.00 No
Germany Yes $22,186.00 Yes
Brazil Yes $6,468.00 Yes
China No - -
India No - -
INDICATOR VARIABLES• US
– Presidential administrations• Carter (76-80)• Reagan/ G. H.W. Bush (81-92)• Clinton (93-00)• G. W. Bush (01-04)
• Germany– Reunification (1991)
• China– Political/ Economic changes
• Economic Reform & opening up (1980)• WTO membership
• Brazil– Switch to Ethanol (1975)
• India– The first trans-pacific fiber optic line (1994)
IMPROVED EXPLANITORY POWER
COUNTRY EXPLANATORYPOWER: ORIGINAL
EXPLANATORY POWER: INDICATOR
United States 48.94% 59.89%
Germany 21.94% 44.24%
Brazil 8.23% 15.71%
China 47.50% 52.73%
India 4.31% 6.84%
US4
4.5
55
.56
pce
mit
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
CARTER
REAGAN BUSH I
CLINTON
BUSH II
GERMANY2
2.5
33
.54
pce
mit
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
REUNIFCATION
CHINA-.
1
-8.9
4e
-09
.1.2
.3.4
dp
cem
it/d
pcg
dp
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
dpcemit dpcgdp
REFORM & OPENING UP
WTO MEMBERSHIP
INDIA0
.1.2
.3.4
pce
mit/
Fitt
ed
va
lue
s
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000pcgdp
pcemit Fitted values
CONCLUSIONS FROM STATS
• While CO2, does follow the path of an EKC there is no simple casual relationship between GDP and emission levels.
• However, political and other historical events explain a countries emission pattern
WHY SHOULD I CARE
• The harm principle
• Polluting a Global Commons
• We are responsible for the problem
WHAT MUST BE DONE
• Realize that there is a problem, and take ownership of the caused harm
• This international problem requires an international conclusion
– Problems with Kyoto
• We need a true cap on emissions, and penalties for non compliance
WHAT DOES THIS LOOK LIKE?
• Cap and Trade, on local and international level
• Taxes
• Acting locally, know where your energy is coming from and what harms you are causing
“Think Globally and Act Locally”-Bill McKibben
THANK YOU
Special thanks to:Dr. Jahn HakesDr. Gene ClineMy parentsMy friends All of you