My experience on travel and research – Summer 2012

7/31/2019 My experience on travel and research Summer 2012

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My experience on travel and research Summer 2012Hoa Hoang

Intern

From

Los Banos

To


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About me

PhD student, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics,

University of Missouri-Columbia

Master, Social and Applied Economics, Wright State University,

Ohio

Married Home town: Hanoi, Vietnam

Experience with IRRI: internships, summer 2011 and 2012


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Part 1: Travel


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Get out of yourOFFICE!!!

TRAVEL

MORE

But IRRIdoesnt pay for

me

Randy Barker


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This might be your solution!


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Indonesia

Ask Training

Center forNurul?

NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

PLANNING AGENCY

Bureau of Statistics

Ministry of Agriculture


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Thought #1:

There is something wrong with

RICE served at IRRI cafeteria


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Sukamandi


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A breeder is like a matchmaker Dr. Glenn


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Drought-stricken rice fields, some parts also suffer from

salinity and submergence simultaneously


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Thought #2:

From Research to Reality, there is abig G---A---P


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Thailand

Justin

Adam

Dr. Rasame

Rice Department

Ms. Apinporn


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Thailands rice economy

will be a disaster if the

government insists on

their price pledging

scheme Dr. Somporn

Smart farmers use these


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Thought #3:

Farmers adaptability: sometimes

Less is More


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Part 2: Research


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Farmers Coping Mechanism to Natural Disaster:

A Study on Rice Farmers in the Coastal Area of

BangladeshKhondoker A. Mottaleb, Samarendu Mohanty, Hoa T. K. Hoang and Roderick M. Rejesus

Paper presented at the International Seminar, Indonesia Center for Rice Research, Sukamandi, Indonesia,

July 2012

Rice technology innovation for increasing production and conserving

environment under global climate change


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Cyclone Aila,

May 2009

190 people were

killed, more than

3.9 million peoplewere affected

(IFRCRC, 2010 )


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500,000 people were

homeless throughout

Bangladesh

Dams broken, houses

submerged and

destroyed

How did farmerschange theirexpenditure

behaviors to copewith the situation?


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Year Barisal and Khulna(Aila-affected districts)

Chittagong(Not affected

districts)

Total

1960-1980 2 11 13

1981-1998 7 13 20

1999-2010 10 2 12

Total 19 26 45

Table 1: Major cyclonic storms from 1960-2010 that causedsignificant losses of lives and properties

Source: BBS: Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh, 2001 and 2010

A Natural Experiment Setting


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Table 2: Average crop/rice production and income of a sampled household

Note. Values are computed in terms of real BDT using general price index 1995-96=100 .Source: BBS, Households Income and Expenditure Survey, 2000, 2005 & 2010.

AILA affected districts

Not or partly affected

districts

Unit 2000 2005 2010 2000 2005 2010

Cropland acre 3.72 2.48 1.69 3.43 1.99 1.44

Rice farmland acre 2.60 2.05 1.37 2.40 1.85 1.34

Value of total crop produced BDT, 000 16.71 16.12 14.17 15.12 14.32 16.61

Paddy production KG, 000 2.60 1.99 1.34 2.44 1.94 1.81Value of paddy produced BDT, 000 13.26 10.57 9.03 12.36 10.23 12.22

Paddy sold KG, 000 0.54 0.46 0.41 0.54 0.26 0.37

Value of paddy sold BDT, 000 3.16 2.32 2.84 2.67 1.47 2.52

Paddy consumed KG, 000 1.20 0.84 0.68 1.37 1.30 1.15

Value of paddy consumed BDT, 000 5.90 4.39 4.56 6.95 6.79 7.83


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Table 3: AILA affected districts

DivisionSeverely damaged

districts

(treatment group)

No. of affected

people (000) aNo. of affected

Family (000) b

Barisal Barguna 390 60.45

Barisal 357 63.20

Bhola 128 89.87

Jhalokati 302 69.42

Patuakhali 293 139.33

Pirojpur 359 66.55

Khulna Bagerhat 480 56.61

Khulna 363 92.66

Satkhira 170 114.17

Chittagon Noakhal116 49.24

Partly or not affected districts

(control group)

Chittagong Comilla 390 --

Chandpur 480 272.1

Feni 357 860.0

Laksmipur 137 262.8

Chittagong -- 406.6

Coxs Bazar -- 587.4

Sources:

a.Collected from Information Technology for HumanitarianAssistance Corporation and Action (ITHACA). May 27, 2009.

Online:

http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/FAA

DD2B8FAD44CA0C12575C4004229E3-map.pdf, accessed

on June 10, 2012.

b.International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent

Societies, June 2, 2009. Bangladesh: Cyclone AILA. Online:

http://www.ifrc.org/docs/appeals/09/MDRBD004_OU2.pdf

, accessed on June 11, 2012.

DATA

Sampling from Household Incomeand Expenditure Survey Data:

consider only farm households inflood-affected divisions (Barisal,Khulna, and Chittagong)

Total number of observations:2,891

Total number of districts: 323

Year: 2000, 2005 (before thecyclone) and 2010 (after thecyclone)

5
http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/FAADD2B8FAD44CA0C12575C4004229E3-map.pdfhttp://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/FAADD2B8FAD44CA0C12575C4004229E3-map.pdfhttp://www.ifrc.org/docs/appeals/09/MDRBD004_OU2.pdfhttp://www.ifrc.org/docs/appeals/09/MDRBD004_OU2.pdfhttp://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/FAADD2B8FAD44CA0C12575C4004229E3-map.pdfhttp://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/FAADD2B8FAD44CA0C12575C4004229E3-map.pdfhttp://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/FAADD2B8FAD44CA0C12575C4004229E3-map.pdfhttp://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/FAADD2B8FAD44CA0C12575C4004229E3-map.pdf


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Difference-in-Difference Model

itii

it

ZdummyYearAD

dummyYearADADdummyYeardummyYearY

)()2010*(

)2005*()()2010()2005(

5

43210

Y:dependent variables (crop income, paddy area, paddy income, value of paddy sold andconsumed, non-food and food expenditures, education and health)

AD: equals 1 if a district is affected, 0 otherwise

Z: demographic variables

T: year

5

5 : the effect of the cyclone in the cyclone-affected districts comparedto other districts (the difference in the effect of cyclone AILA on Ybetween treatment and control groups)

Random-Effect Tobit, Pooled OLS, Fixed-Effect OLS


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Dependent variables Cropincome

Paddy

incomeValue of

paddy

consumed

Value of

paddy soldRice land

(acres)

Year 2005 dummy (=1) 0.23 -0.69 -0.23 -1.66 -0.17

-0.1 (-0.31) (-0.19) (-0.86) (-0.37)

Year 2010 dummy (=1) 3.35 1.39 1.2 0.63 -0.88*

-1.35 -0.61 -0.98 -0.33 (-1.89)A dummy for cyclone affected

district (=1)

4.48* 1.75 -1.38 3.23* 0.17

-1.86 -0.79 (-1.14) -1.74 -0.38

Cyclone affected district X Year

2005 dummy-1.74 -3.24 -1.58 -1.59 -0.61

(-0.53) (-1.09) (-0.97) (-0.63) (-0.98)

Cyclone affected district X Year

2010 dummy

-5.09* -7.16** -3.12* -2.57 -0.74

(-1.58) (-2.41) (-1.92) (-1.03) (-1.21)

Likelihood-ratio test of sigma_u=0:

chibar2(01)

116.67 159.96 180.35 131.96 75.13

p-value 0 0 0 0 0

Note. Values are computed in terms of real BDT using general price index 1995-96=100 . Numbers in parentheses are

z-statistics. * Significant at the 10% level.** Significant at the 5% level.*** Significant at the 1% level.

Table 4: Differences in crop income, rice farm land, paddy production and consumptionof a household (results on demographic variables are omitted)

Radom-Effect Tobit Regression Results


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Dependent variables Non-foodexp.

Total foodexp.

Admissionexp.

Educationexp.

Health exp.

Year 2005 dummy (=1) -0.77 -0.07 0.06 0.1 -0.67***

(-0.35) (-0.92) -0.92 -0.2 (-2.73)

Year 2010 dummy (=1) 9.17*** 0.34*** 0.34*** 2.70*** -0.82***

-4.12 -4.4 -5.21 -5.09 (-3.27)

A dummy for cyclone

affected district (=1)

-4.48** -0.25*** 0.05 0.2 -0.97***

(-2.08) (-3.31) -0.84 -0.39 (-3.97)

Cyclone affected district

X Year 2005 dummy5.11* 0.07 -0.11 -0.56 -0.28

-1.73 -0.65 (-1.25) (-0.79) (-0.83)

Cyclone affected district

X Year 2010 dummy

-2.5 0.27*** -0.14* -1.41** 1.29***

(-0.86) -2.6 (-1.64) (-2.04) -3.92

Likelihood-ratio test of

sigma_u=0: chibar2(01)

19.1 471.77 55.09 33.8 87.93

p-value 0 0 0 0 0

Table 5: Differences in annual non-food, 14 days food, and annual education and monthlyhealth expenditures by a household (results on demographic variables are omitted)

Note. Values are computed in terms of real BDT using general price index 1995-96=100 . Numbers in parentheses are

z-statistics. * Significant at the 10% level.** Significant at the 5% level.*** Significant at the 1% level.


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Conclusion

On average, a household in the cyclone-affected area had lower paddyincome as well as paddy consumption than a household in the non-affectedarea

Cyclone-affected households spent more on food and health expenditurecompared to the unaffected households.

More importantly, cyclone affected households spent less on their childrensschool admission and schooling. This is socially undesirable.

Policy implications:

Disaster loans Educational loans and support for farm households


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Continue

AIDS models (Vietnam, Philippines,Bangladesh)

IRRI Global Rice Model

Dissertation


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Many THANKS &

See you all again soon!

My experience on travel and research – Summer 2012

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