Mutual Investment Opportunity for Croatian and Chinese Businessmen Dr. Hongjun Zhao Professor of...
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Transcript of Mutual Investment Opportunity for Croatian and Chinese Businessmen Dr. Hongjun Zhao Professor of...
Mutual Investment Opportunity for Mutual Investment Opportunity for Croatian and Chinese Businessmen Croatian and Chinese Businessmen Mutual Investment Opportunity for Mutual Investment Opportunity for
Croatian and Chinese Businessmen Croatian and Chinese Businessmen
Dr. Hongjun Zhao Professor of Economics,
Shanghai University of International Business and Economics
May 12, 2013
Topics
• The Industrial Comparative Advantages for Croatia and China in the past 20 years– Industrial GDP– Sector Growth trend– Trade relation
• Mutual Investment opportunity in the coming 5-10 years
2
I. Industrial Comparative Advantage of both countries in past 20 years
Agricultural value added, as a share of GDP
3
Industry value added as a share of GDP
4
Service value added as a share of GDP
5
Conclusion 1 in terms of national level
• Agricultural share goes down, service share goes up while industry share is fluctuating
• This is in accordance with the industrial revolution law
• Agriculture and industry are stronger in China while Croatian service sector is stronger than that of China
6
The growth rate of Agriculture value added
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
ChinaCroatia
7
The growth rate of Industrial value added
- 15
- 10
- 5
0
5
10
15
20
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Chi naCroat i a
8
Service value added annual growth rate
- 10
- 5
0
5
10
15
20Chi naCroat i a
9
Conclusion 2 in terms of sector trend
• The growth rate of agriculture, industry and service sector in China is more stable in China than that of in Croatia
• The growth rate of them in Croatia is more fluctuating
• Why?– government in China plays a stronger role in pushing up
and stablizing economic development
– International capital plays a more important role in Croatia
10
Croatia China trade relation
• Croatia imports much more from China 2011-12
11
Croatia import from China 2012
Commodity Value KG
Parts for household laundry machines $19,185 592
Way-type unit head machine $3,606 369
Refrigerating/freezing chests (other than household-type), cabinets, display counters, showcases & similar refrigerating/freezing furniture
$599,573 100,202
Air-conditioning machines comprising a motor-driven fan and elements for changing the temperature & humidity, window/wall-types, self-contained/"split-system"
$19,386,121 2,654,281
Built-in jacking systems of a type used in garages $157,389 67,625
Other continuous-action elevators & conveyors, belt-type $236,408 8,900
Injection-/compression-types of moulds for rubber/plastics $87,226 7,395
Video-recording/reproducing apparatus, whether/not incorporating a video tuner, magnetic tape-type
$14,105 426
Fixed carbon resistors, composition-/film-type $2,192 39
Household-type refrigerators and food freezers (electrical and other) $5,296,675 1,186,368
Refrigerators, household-type (electric/other), whether/not containing a deep-freeze compartment
$4,710,372 1,027,960
Commodities and transactions not classified elsewhere in the SITC $10,652 N/A
12
Croatia and world business relation
• Export less and import more from the world
13
Travel service as a share of service export
14
Information and communication technology export as a share of service export
15
Conclusion 3
• In merchandise industry and trade, it seems that Croatia is weaker compared to China and other industrial countries
• In service industry and trade, Travel service is one of the strongest advantages in Croatia, why not do more in this field?
16
II. Mutual Investment Opportunity in the coming 5-10 years
• For Croatia, travel will be one of the best strategy absorbing Chinese Tourists– Every year, 47.66 million people go abroad to travel, covering
139 countries and regions, and this number keep growing at 4.6%
17
Croatian Investment Opportunity for China
• For Croatia, welcome Chinese investment in manufacturing industry, energy and transport, communication infrastructure is one of the best strategies in the coming 5-10 years
– Similar historical and cultural background in 1940-1980
– CEE countries suffered a lot from 2009-2011 debt crisis
– 1991-2000, China doesn’t catch up the first round of FDI in central and east Europe
– 2009-2015 will be the second round of FDI
18
Chinese investment in Central and east Europe in 2003-2010, still very low, more potential
19
Croatian’s attractiveness for FDI
20
• We should take use of the platform of Confucius institute to facilitate mutual cultural, business exchange
21