Mutual Fund Review - ICICI Directcontent.icicidirect.com/...MonthlyMFReport_Sept14.pdf · Mutual...

Mutual FundReview

October 20 2009 | Mutual Fund October 20 2009 | Mutual Fund October 20 2009 | Mutual Fund

November 19, 2009 | Mutual Fund Mutual Fund Review

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research

Note: Whenever, returns for the scheme are shown in the report, they are for the growth option of the scheme.

Mutual Fund Review

Equity Markets ..................................................................................................... 2

Debt Markets ........................................................................................................ 3

MF industry synopsis.......................................................................................... 4

MF Category Analysis ......................................................................................... 5

Equity funds ...................................................................................................... 5 Equity diversified funds ..................................................................................... 6 Equity Infrastructure fund ................................................................................ 7 Equity Banking Funds ......................................................................................... 7 Equity FMCG ......................................................................................................... 7 Equity Pharma Funds .......................................................................................... 8 Equity Technology Funds................................................................................... 8

Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) ...................................................................... 9 Balanced Funds............................................................................................... 10 Monthly Income Plans (MIP) ........................................................................ 10 Arbitrage Funds .............................................................................................. 11 Debt funds ....................................................................................................... 12

Union Budget 2014: Change in debt funds taxation .................................13 Liquid Funds ....................................................................................................... 14 Income funds ...................................................................................................... 15 Gilt Funds ..................................................................... 16 Gold ETFs: International prices maintain negative bias......................17

Model Portfolios ................................................................................................ 18

Equity funds model portfolio ...................................................................... 18 Debt funds model portfolio ......................................................................... 19

I direct Top Picks .............................................................................................. 20

September 22, 2014


Page 2

Equity Markets Update

Indian equity markets continue to scale new highs and crossed 27000 levels on the S&P BSE Sensex (CNX Nifty: 8150) in September 2014 on the back of continued optimism on an economic recovery in the coming months and also factoring in a sharp fall in global crude oil prices

Global markets were also supportive and gained momentum on continued easy monetary policy support from US Federal Reserve and the ECB

On the ground, economic indicators (GDP, current account, IIP, vehicle sales) and anecdotal evidence (urban job creation, business sentiments) indicate the growth momentum is slowly building up

The external backdrop was mixed with divergent trends in key countries. While the US seems to be on a recovery path, concerns have re-emerged about the eurozone, which could lead to a more accommodative policy by the ECB. One of the positive developments for India is softening global crude oil prices

The auto sector continue to outperform while the IT and healthcare sectors also bounced back as investors booked some profit in high beta sectors like banking and capital goods and invested it back into defensive sectors

Small cap and midcaps continued their outperformance as investors continue to search for high growth investment opportunities in lower market cap companies

Outlook

Various macroeconomic data points have improved both on the domestic as well as external fronts. Q1FY15 GDP at 5.7% YoY was highest in the last nine quarter. IIP for June, although growing slower at 3.4%, has improved in the last three months. Cement volume growth continues to remain robust in the first four months of FY15 while overall auto sales have seen a sharp recovery in FY15 with around 13% growth vs. 4% in FY14. Although monsoons have been erratic, drought related concerns have receded. The current account deficit has improved significantly in the last year while fiscal deficit concerns have also receded to the margins with expectations of lower oil subsidy burden and higher receipts from RBI and disinvestment. Global crude oil prices have declined to the lowest level in the last 16 months on easing geo-political tensions and favourable demand supply. The Indian currency has remained stable at around | 60/US$ despite volatility in other currency markets

Reversal of policy paralysis in the government has led to increased optimism with respect to increased capital spending by the private sector, going forward

The expectations of corporate earnings growth have improved as the market is betting on increased profitability, going forward, once the topline growth recovers fully to previous higher levels due to operational efficiency achieved by companies in the downturn in recent years. We have also increased our FY16 Sensex EPS from 1835 to 1880

As there has been an improvement in most economic data points and expectations of an upgrade in earnings growth in the next two or three years, investors should remain overweight on equities within their overall asset allocation

CNX Nifty: Earnings determine path…

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

Sep-

13

Oct-1

3

Nov

-13

Dec-

13

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr-1

4

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug-

14

Sep-

14

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Small cap stocks outshine

7.8

5.6

2.4

1.3

0.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

BSESmall Cap

BSEMidcap

BSE 500 BSE 100 BSESensex

Retu

rn (%

)

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research Returns : 1M (Aug 18 - Sep 17, 2014)

Results expectations reflected in price movement!

8.0

6.9

5.6

5.4

3.0

2.7

1.9

0.9

-1.5

-6.8

-7.0

-1.7

-10

-5

0

5

10

Heal

thca

re

Auto

Con.

Dura IT

FMCG

Bank

ing

Cap.

Good

s

Sens

ex

Oil &

Gas

PSU

Real

ity

Met

al

Retu

rn (%

)

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research Returns : 1M (Aug 18 - Sep 17, 2014)

Analyst’s name

Sachin Jain [email protected] Sheetal Ashar [email protected]


Page 3

Debt Markets Update

Overall positive sentiments (especially on the higher duration) due to moderating inflation, receding drought related concerns, improvement in external trade balance, falling global crude oil prices and better liquidity situation have failed to bring down G-Sec yields due to the hawkish policy stance of RBI. However, RBI’s policy stance provides more comfort in terms of commitment to address CPI inflation and also anchor inflationary expectations. This may entail a near term prolonged pause in policy rates but provides a sound footing to revive growth in a non-inflationary manner with macroeconomic stability

FIIs have been significant net buyers in the Indian debt markets due to a stable currency and an improved outlook on a strong pro-reform government. So far, FIIs have bought a record US$19.5 billion in the current calendar year

CPI for August 2014 came in line with market expectations at 7.8%, marginally lower than 7.96% in July 2014. WPI inflation eased considerably to 3.74% at its five-year low dragged down by softening of primary articles inflation to 3.89% and fuel inflation to 4.5%

Although CPI inflation has been moderating with the last two number prints coming below RBI’s first target of 8% by January 2015, the next target of achieving 6% CPI inflation by January 2016 looks difficult. The same is concerning market participants who are otherwise more comforted on the downward trajectory of the inflation

The revised liquidity management framework announced by the RBI should lead to overnight rates remaining better aligned with the policy rate once regular auctioning of government cash balances is operationalised, given that frictional liquidity pressures have largely been on account of a build-up of government balances

Outlook

The recent trend in macroeconomic data points towards early signs of a recovery in the economy. Industrial growth has picked up, exports have been rising at double digits while CPI inflation has slowed to a 30 month low

In the near term, G-Sec yields are likely to trade in a narrow range given RBI’s tough inflation targeting stance. However, RBI’s stance is positive in the medium to long term for longer duration yields as structural and more balanced downward trajectory of inflation will ultimately lead to lower yields with low volatility

The corporate bond market segment continues to be attractive over a medium-term especially with expectations of an improvement in corporate profitability and an improved economic outlook. Credit opportunity funds are also better placed due to stable returns and a change in taxation warranting minimum holding period of three years to avail indexation benefits

We continue to remain positive on corporate bonds and the shorter end of the curve currently. Exposure to longer-dated gilt/bond strategies could be suitable for investors with a relatively higher risk profile with a longer investment horizon

G-Sec yield lower as inflation cools off

7.8

8.2

8.6

9.0

9.4

Aug-

13

Sep-

13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Yiel

d (%

)


Reduced weekly auction amount by | 2000 crore Month Gross

BorrowingRedemption Net Borrowing

PreviousAugust 70,000 0 70,000September 42,000 0 42,000Total H1FY15 368,000 87,096 280,904Revised August 66,000 0 70,000September 36,000 0 42,000Total H1FY15 360,000 87,096 272,904 Source: RBI, ICICIdirect.com Research, Figures are in | crore

G-Sec yield curve flattens but remains high

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

1yr 3yr 5yr 10yr

Yiel

d (%

)

17-Sep-14 15-Aug-14


Corporate bond yield curve moves lower

8.88.99.09.19.29.39.4

1yr 3yr 5yr 10 yr

Yiel

d (%

)

16-Sep-14 14-Aug-14



Page 4

MF industry synopsis Assets under management (AUM) of all schemes put together increased

32% to over | 10 trillion as equity funds AUM jumps up 42% YTD Change in debt funds taxation led to outflows from income fund for last

two consecutive months Exhibit 1: AUM over | 10 trillion registering 32% YoY and 23% YTD growth

7661

03

7459

69

8339

61

8899

52

8258

60

9032

55

9163

93

9453

21

1011

102

9747

15

7608

33

8253

30

1006

452

1012

824

4%2%

4%

9%12%

9% 9%13%

18%15%

16%20%

32% 32%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jul-1

3

Aug-

13

Sep-

13

Oct-1

3

Nov

-13

Dec-

13

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr-1

4

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug-

14

| Cr

ore

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

Total AUM (RHS) Growth (YoY)

Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 2: Equity AUM share improves to 26% as on August 31, 2014 from 20%(April 2014)

Equity, 266742, 26%

Balanced, 17293, 2%

Other ETFs, 6349, 1%

FOF(Overseas), 3180, 0%

Income, 461114, 45%

Money Market, 245035, 24%

Gilt, 5450, 1%Gold ETFs , 7661,

1%

Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research; Figures in % indicate share in total AUM

Top three AMCs manage over | 1 trillion of assets. ICICI Prudential AMC has gained market share to get ahead of Reliance AMC

Exhibit 3: HDFC AMC has highest AAUM…Reliance & ICICI Prudential competing for second

1300

36

1129

14

1180

56

9855

6

7944

1

6921

3

5098

7

3552

1

3311

3

4369

4

1049

77

9777

1

9169

5

7976

1

7470

7

5916

3

4172

2

3720

3

3304

1

3893

8

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

HDFC

MF

Relia

nce

MF

Ipru

MF

Birla

Sunl

ife M

F

UTI M

F

SBI M

F

Fran

klin

Tem

pelto

nKo

tak

Mah

indr

aDS

PBl

ackR

ock

IDFC

MF

| Cr

Jun-14 Jun-13


Exhibit 4: …Top 10 AMCs manage ~80% of industry AAUM

13.1

7

11.4

3

11.9

5

9.98

8.04

7.01

5.16

3.60

3.35 4.42

21.8

8

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

HDFC

MF

Relia

nce

MF

Ipru

MF

Birla

Sunl

ife M

F

UTI M

F

SBI M

F

Fran

klin

Tem

pelto

nKo

tak

Mah

indr

aDS

PBl

ackR

ock

IDFC

MF

Rest

all

%

Market share



Page 5

MF Category Analysis

Equity funds In the year so far, the formation of a new stable government at the

Centre has improved the growth outlook for banking and infrastructure stocks leading to stocks zooming to 52-week highs. Among diversified funds, midcap funds have outperformed the large cap funds. Majority of capital goods and infrastructure stocks have seen a stellar rally contributing to the returns of the midcap funds

Exhibit 5: Export oriented funds ruled in past three – five years posting ~20% annualised return

50.9

20.5

44.9

46.0

54.6

44.6

37.6

35.8

12.5 16

.0

12.0

21.1

10.1 15

.1

13.9 19

.3

10.2

1 15.8

1

7.88

17.3

7

4.46

10.5

3

9.19 12

.07

06

121824303642485460

Banking FMCG Mid cap Pharma Infrastructure Diversified Large Cap Technology

Retu

rns

(%)

1year 3 Year 5year

Source: Crisil Fund Analyser, ICICIdirect.com Research ; Returns over one year are compounded annualised returns

Exhibit 6: Three consecutive months of healthier inflows in equity funds

458

-2231-3542

699 857 427 582

-1935-160

2022

7153

10845

5364

-4500-2500-50015003500550075009500

1150013500

Aug-

13

Sep-

13

Oct-1

3

Nov

-13

Dec-

13

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr-1

4

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug-

14

Net

Inflo

w (

| Cr

)

Net inflow (Equity + ELSS)


Exhibit 7: Equity AUM soars post record inflows and marker rally

1569

04

1624

50

1734

53

1751

28

1826

82

1754

21

1811

27

1911

97

1922

46

2172

34

2410

24

2516

30

2667

42

150000

200000

250000

300000

Aug-

13

Sep-

13

Oct-1

3

Nov

-13

Dec-

13

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr-1

4

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug-

14

| Cr

ore

Equity +ELSS


Exhibit 8: \Deployment of equity funds (July 2014)

Allocation Banks Software Pharma Finance AutoConsumer

Non Durables

Petroleum

Construction Projects

Indusrial capitla goods

Indusrial Products

| crore 56625 29668 19393 15116 17754 13245 13266 11477 10352 10113

% of total 21.4 10.6 6.9 5.4 6.3 4.7 4.7 4.1 3.8 3.6

Source: Sebi, ICICIdirect.com Research , Sector Classification (as per Amfi)

The widespread anticipation among market experts about an economic turnaround after the Bharatiya Janata Party’s decisive election victory has led money to be shifted from defensives to cyclicals and industrials

Exposure to auto stocks has increased to | 17754 crore vs. | 14440 crore in July 2014. Similarly, exposure to petroleum stocks, oil and cement companies has increased while that to engineering & construction companies has been scaled down


Page 6

Equity diversified funds

Equity diversified funds be they large cap funds, midcap funds or multi caps all posted healthy returns in the last year and rewarded investors who stayed patient

Formation of a Narendra Modi-led single party majority government has fuelled hopes that the policy logjam will be undone and growth will get back on track. It has acted as a catalyst for increased hope of earnings revival and consequent multiple expansion for most stocks

We expect the BSE Sensex EPS to grow 16.7% and 15.2% in FY15E and FY16E, respectively, to 1880 in FY16E. Even after the recent rally, the BSE Sensex is currently trading at a price to earning multiple of ~14x FY16 EPS of 1835. We expect the Sensex to get further re-rated and trade at 16.5x FY16E at 30300 by December 2015 with the Nifty reaching 9050

With hopes of a strong macroeconomic recovery, FII investments may continue to be strong and further imbibe positive sentiments

We believe midcap and small cap funds will deliver better returns as the pro-growth government at the Centre augurs well for midcap companies to enter a high growth phase and see multiple re ratings

For long term SIPs, diversified funds can be preferred as they invest in both growth as well as value stocks

Though things have already started to look up for market participants, there is a risk of expectations not being met by the new government. A critical evaluation of the government's performance may lead to volatility in the markets

Recommended funds

Large cap

Axis Equity Birla Sunlife Frontline Equity ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity UTI Opportunities Fund

Diversified

Franklin India Prima Plus Fund ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan Reliance Equity Opportunities

Midcap

HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund ICICI Prudential Discovery Fund Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund SBI Magnum Global Fund

Smallcap

DSPBR Micro Cap Reliance Small Cap SBI Small & Midcap

(Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)

View Short term: Positive Long-term: Positive


Page 7

Equity Infrastructure fund After a clear mandate, the government unveiled its 10 year agenda to

focus on infrastructure, especially in road & railway like the dedicated freight corridor (US$80 billion), Diamond Quadrilateral (Mumbai Ahmedabad bullet train preliminary cost pegged at | 65,000 crore) and Sagar Mala project (| 1 lakh crore project). This lends comfort there will be tangible opportunities in the long run for infrastructure players

Secondly, the government progress towards speeding up the decision making process towards low hanging fruits/stuck project worth | 15-20 lakh crore would not only lead to better execution but also improve the liquidity of various infrastructure projects

Thirdly, the dovish tone from the RBI towards interest rate would also lead to better liquidity and saving on interest outgo for infrastructure

Fourthly, with RBI's recent action allowing banks to issue long term bonds for infrastructure with benefits such as relaxation of CRR & SLR norms and longer duration of bonds, we believe the pressure to fund infrastructure projects on developers would ease. Hence, cost of funds and strain on cash flow is likely to reduce, going ahead. While the valuation for the infrastructure sector has moved from distressed to reasonable, we still see significant scope for a re-rating of the sector

Though there has been a sharp run in prices, we believe any correction in stocks should be used as an opportunity to accumulate stocks

Recommended funds

Franklin Build India Fund HDFC Infrastructure Fund ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund

Refer to www.icicidirect.com

for details of the fund

Equity Banking Funds A turnaround in sentiment for the banking sector on hopes of an

improvement in the economy has resulted in a sharp appreciation in stock prices. Though the NPA cycle will take a while to recover multiples may continue to expand early

Credit and deposit growth are expected to improve from the current 13-15% range with an increase in capex

We remain positive on the sector with a long term bias Recommended funds

ICICI Prudential Banking & Financial Services Reliance Banking Fund UTI Thematic - Banking Sector Fund



Equity FMCG With the visible demand slowdown in the FMCG industry, volume

growth has been muted in the last year Though rainfall deficit recovered to an extent in July, the possibility of

weaker monsoons on a full year basis may result in further demand deterioration, mainly from the rural side

Considering the visible slowdown and expensive valuation multiples, we believe FMCG stocks may not be in flavour in the next quarter. Our stance remains neutral on the FMCG sector

Recommended funds

ICICI Prudential FMCG Fund SBI FMCG Fund



View Short-term: Positive Long-term: Positive


View Short-term: Neutral Long-term: Neutral


Page 8

Equity Pharma Funds The addition of 108 formulations to the National List of Essential

Medicines (NLEM) as per the new NPPA notification has certainly sounded alarm bells for the future. Although the impact remains marginal, any new addition may impact the industry severely

We expect some tapering in the expected Indian pharma growth rate (8-10%). Overall, during the reported period, the BSEHC outperformed the broader indices for the second month in a row, driven by fresh buying in frontline pharma stocks

However, with a slew of positive announcements in the Union Budget for old economy stocks, we expect buying to resume in these stocks. We maintain our neutral view on the sector vis-à-vis the broader markets

Recommended funds

Reliance Pharma Fund SBI Pharma Fund UTI-Pharma & Healthcare



Equity Technology Funds

Technology funds, after putting up a stupendous performance, may see some profit booking in the near term

Dollar revenue growth for tier-Is picked up in the June quarter with TCS and Infosys reporting 5.5% and 2% sequential growth, respectively. This reflects healthy acceleration relative to the average 1.8% QoQ (tier-I) growth reported in Q4FY14. From an FY15E perspective, companies that reported Q1 earnings, emphasised on a demand uptick in the US, UK and Europe led by infrastructure services and banking vertical. Companies also saw project starts and a modest improvement in the budget spend patterns

Though growth has accelerated and valuations have moderated at ~15.6x blended one-year forward for tier-Is (~10% premium to Sensex), upsides are capped as valuations likely capture a majority of rupee tailwinds. Although long term growth prospects of the sector are intact, an appreciating rupee may impact margins and earnings in FY15E, FY16E

Recommended funds

ICICI Prudential Technology Fund DSPBR Technology fund






Page 9

Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) In India, there are three kinds of ETFs available: Equity Index ETFs,

liquid ETFs and gold ETFs

An equity index ETF tracks a particular equity index such as the BSE Sensex, NSE Nifty, Nifty Junior, etc

An equity index ETF scores higher than index funds on several grounds. The expense of investing in ETFs is relatively less by 0.50-1.00% in comparison to an index fund. The expense ratio for ETFs is in the range of 0.50-0.75% excluding brokerage while for index funds the expense ratio varies in the range of 1.0-1.5%. However, brokerage (which varies) is applicable on ETFs while there are no entry loads now on index funds

The tracking error, which explains the extent of deviation of returns from the underlying index, is usually low in ETFs as it tracks the equity index on a real time basis whereas it is done only once in a day for index funds

ETFs also provide liquidity as they are traded on stock exchanges and investors may subscribe or redeem them even on an intra-day basis. This is unavailable in index funds, which are subscribed/redeemed only on a closing NAV basis

There are over 400 ETFs traded globally. ETFs are transparent and cost efficient. The decision on which ETF to buy should be largely governed by the decision on getting exposure in that asset class

Volumes are higher only in the Goldman Sachs Benchmark ETFs and tracking error is also lowest at 0.01%. Therefore, it is our top pick for investors wanting Nifty-linked returns

CPSE ETF is a new entry in the Goldman Sachs ETF offering. The ETF invests in selective 10 PSU stocks and is listed on the exchange since April. IT has delivered healthy 45% return since its launch. Also, bonus units at end of the year will provide additional benefit too.

Exhibit 9: CPSE ETF leads to higher inflows and outflows

-1

-26

5 31

-80 -19

3087

-1213

576

-133

211 51

-1500-1000-500

0500

100015002000250030003500

Sep-

13

Oct-1

3

Nov

-13

Dec-

13

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr-1

4

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug-

14

Net

Inflo

w (

| Cr

)


Exhibit 10: AUM also sees jump

1359

1392

1436

1437

1489

1371

1378

4528

3704

4829 5048

5083

5239

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Aug-

13

Sep-

13

Oct-1

3

Nov

-13

Dec-

13

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr-1

4

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug-

14

| Cr

ore

Other ETFs


Traded volumes should be the major criterion that is used while deciding on investment in ETFs. Higher volumes ensure lower spread and better pricing to investors...

Tracking error, though it should be considered, is not the deciding factor as variation among funds is not huge...


Page 10

Balanced Funds Balanced funds are hybrid funds. More than 65% of the overall portfolio

is invested in equities. Hence, as per provisions of the Income Tax Act, 1961, any capital gains over one year become tax free. Also, dividends declared by funds are tax free

In case you separately invest 35% of your investible corpus in a debt fund, the same will be subject to higher taxation. However, if the whole of the corpus is invested in balanced funds, 100% shall have lower taxation applicable as mentioned above

After a sharp rally in equity markets, the funds can be a preferred investment avenue as the debt proportion serves to protect on intermediate relief rallies or the downturn while providing 65% participation on further upsides

Exhibit 11: Marginally better inflow

-17

-289

-440

-270

25-116

-1

-402

-83

348448

-108185

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Aug-

13

Sep-

13

Oct-1

3

Nov

-13

Dec-

13

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr-1

4

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug-

14

Net

Inflo

w (

| Cr

)


Exhibit 12: Equity led AUM growth…

1460

7

1521

8 1614

1

1613

5

1681

3

1604

7

1619

5

1679

3

1337

0 1472

8 1591

4

1621

7 1729

3

13000

14000

15000

16000

17000

18000

Aug-

13

Sep-

13

Oct-1

3

Nov

-13

Dec-

13

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr-1

4

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug-

14

| Cr

ore

Balanced


Recommended funds

ICICI Prudential Balanced - Advantage Fund

HDFC Balanced Fund

Tata Balanced Fund


Monthly Income Plans (MIP) An MIP offers investors an option to invest in debt with some

participation in equity, approximately 10-25% of the portfolio. They are suitable for investors who seek higher return from a debt portfolio and are comfortable taking nominal risk. The debt corpus of the portfolio provides regular income while the equity portion of the fund provides alpha. However, returns can also get eroded by a fall in equities

MIPs can be classified into aggressive MIP and conservative MIP based on its equity allocation. Risk averse investors should invest in MIPs with lower equity allocation to avoid capital erosion

Change in taxation announced in the Union Budget 2014, shall be applicable to MIP funds (refer to debt funds section for details)

Recommended funds

Birla Sun Life MIP II - Savings 5 Plan

ICICI Prudential MIP 25

DSPBR MIP Fund


Investors with a limited investible surplus and a lower risk appetite but with a willingness to invest in equities can look to invest in these funds



MIP should be a preferred debt investment for funds that need to be parked for over two years


Page 11

Arbitrage Funds Arbitrage funds seek to exploit market inefficiencies that get manifested

as mispricing in the cash (stock) and derivative markets

Availability of arbitrage positions depends very much on the market scenario. A directional movement in the broader index attracts speculators in the market and cost of funding makes futures positions biased

Arbitrage funds are classified as equity funds as they invest into equity share and equity derivative instruments. Since these are classified as equity funds for taxation, dividends declared by the funds are tax free. No capital gains will be applicable if they are sold after a year

These funds can be looked upon as an alternative to liquid funds. However, for these funds, returns totally depend on arbitrage opportunities available at a particular point of time and investors should consider reviewing the same before investing. Returns of arbitrage funds are non-linear and, therefore, unsuitable for investors who want consistent return across time period

Arbitrage funds should be used as a liquid investment and should not be a major part of the investor’s portfolio

Availability of arbitrage positions depends very much on the market scenario. Directional movement in the broader index attracts speculators in the market while cost of funding makes futures positions biased

In case of positive movement, long build-up in futures puts pricing in an upward bias and creates a window for direct arbitrage positions

On the other hand, negative bias attracts fresh sellers in the market and speculators try to sell the stock much cheaper than theoretical prices. In such situations, reverse arbitrage opportunities arise

On the other hand, a range bound market does not give ample room to create arbitrage positions

Recommended funds

ICICI Prudential Equity - Arbitrage Fund – Regular IDFC Arbitrage Fund - (Regular) Kotak Equity Arbitrage Fund SBI Arbitrage Opportunities Fund




Page 12

Debt funds Exhibit 13: Long term funds delivered better returns

9.3

8.9

7.8

9.7

8.8

7.98.

6

8.3

7.2

8.5

8.0

6.5

8.8

8.7

7.6

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1 year 3year 5 year%

Income UST Income ST Income LT Gilt Funds Liquid

Source: Crisil Fund Analyser ICICIdirect.com Research Note : Returns as on September 16, 2014; Returns over one year are compounded annualised returns

Exhibit 14: Deployment of funds : August 2014

CP Bank CD

Bank CD

Bank CD

Corporate Debt

0

5000

0

1000

00

1500

00

2000

00

2500

00

3000

00

3500

00

4000

00

4500

00

Less than 90 days

90 days to 182days

182 days to 1 year

1 year and above

Government Securities

CP

Bank CD

Treasury Bills

CBLO

Other Money MarketInvestmentsCorporate Debt

PSU Bonds

Securitised Debt

Bank FD Source: SEBI, ICICIdirect.com Research Note : Holding as percentage of total AUM

Exhibit 15: G-Sec yield curve

7.5

7.7

7.9

8.1

8.3

8.5

8.7

8.9

1yr 3yr 5yr 10yr

Yiel

d (%

)

18-Jul-14 18-Jun-14


Exhibit 16: Corporate bond curve

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.4

1yr 3yr 5yr 10 yr

Yield

(%)

17-Jul-14 18-Jun-14


Short term (credit opportunities) fund deliver better returns over a longer period


Page 13

Union Budget 2014: Change in debt funds taxation Key Changes:

Change in holding period from 12 months to 36 months The choice of paying taxes at 10% without indexation on LTCG is

no longer available Dividend distribution tax (DDT) will be applied on the gross amount

distributed For debt funds to be considered as long term asset, the holding period has been increased from 12 months to 36 months. Hence, any capital gains arising on redemption prior to the end of 36 months from the date of investment will be treated as short-term capital gain and be subject to tax at the marginal rate of tax of the investor (nil, 10%, 20% or 30% as the case may be, plus applicable surcharge and cess). Also, the choice of paying taxes at 10% without indexation on long term capital gains (LTCG) is no longer available. Hence, for any gains arising on redemption beyond the holding period of 36 months, investors will have to pay tax @ 20% (plus surcharge and cess) with indexation. Earlier, for debt funds to be considered as long term capital asset, the holding period was one year. Any redemption from a debt mutual fund beyond the holding period of a year, an investor had the choice to pay tax at a lower rate of 10% without indexation or 20% with indexation. We believe the benefit of lower taxation enjoyed by debt mutual funds has been removed. They have been brought at par with fixed deposits for investments up to three years. Beyond three years, debt mutual funds continue to be a better option Earlier, DDT @ 28.33% (25% DDT + cess + surcharge) was applied on the net amount. Hence, the effective DDT deducted was lower. Now DDT will be deducted on the gross amount. Hence, if | 100 is the dividend declared, DDT deducted will be 28.33 while the balance will be distributed. Earlier After the effective date Amount of Dividend | 100 100 Rate of DDT 28.33% 28.33% Pay out to Investor | 77.92 71.67 Amount of Tax Payout | 22.08 28.33 Effective Rate of DDT 22.08% 28.33%

Apart from capital gains taxation, we believe this move may have implications on the overall debt markets as mutual funds are major participants in the corporate bond markets and major subscribers of certificate of deposit and commercial papers that are needed to meet short-term fund requirements.


Page 14

Liquid Funds Liquidity in the system has improved considerably on account of

movements in the cash balances of the government maintained with the RBI. While the system’s recourse to liquidity from the LAF and regular and additional term repos has been around 1% of the NDTL of banks, access to the MSF has been minimal and temporary

The three months and six months certificate of deposit and commercial paper rates eased ~20 bps to 9%. Liquid funds are major investors in these papers

Changes in taxation rules announced in Union Budget 2014 are applicable to liquid funds also, which may make them vulnerable to redemption pressures, as post tax returns in less than three year period get reduced for individuals falling in the higher tax bracket (30% tax slab) and corporate

For less than a year, individuals in the higher tax bracket should opt for dividend option as the dividend distribution tax @ 28.325% is marginally lower. Also, though the tax arbitrage has been reduced, they still have the potential to earn better pre-tax returns over savings and current accounts of banks

Exhibit 17: Call rates near MSF rate

6789

1011121314

Apr

-13

May

-13

Jun-

13Ju

l-13

Aug

-13

Sep-

13Oc

t-13

Nov

-13

Dec-

13Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

%

Call rate


Exhibit 18: …CP/CD yields range bound

7.08.09.0

10.011.012.013.0

Apr

-13

May

-13

Jun-

13Ju

l-13

Aug

-13

Sep-

13Oc

t-13

Nov

-13

Dec-

13Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4Se

p-14

%

3M CD 3M CP


Exhibit 19: Redemption may take place on increase in holding period

6751

5

5143

6

-663

13

7749

4

-962

9

-117

354

1238

75

2201

0

-676

97

25,5

89

-280

19 -5,8

64

-200000-160000-120000-80000-40000

04000080000

120000160000

Sep-

13

Oct-1

3

Nov

-13

Dec-

13

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr-1

4

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug-

14

Net

Inflo

w (

| Cr

)


Exhibit 20: AUM above | 2 trillion but may see drop next month

1498

80

1221

42 1891

49 2464

01

1812

38

2589

80

2508

22

1332

80

2593

10

2827

00

2159

95

2442

20

2450

35

80000

130000

180000

230000

280000

330000

Aug-

13

Sep-

13

Oct-1

3

Nov

-13

Dec-

13

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr-1

4

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug-

14

| Cr

ore

Money Market


Recommended funds

HDFC Cash Management Fund - Savings Plan SBI Magnum InstaCash Reliance Liquid Fund - Treasury Plan


View Neutral

The RBI announced a revision to its liquidity management framework on August 26. According to the latest framework, The RBI would continue infusing liquidity through

fixed overnight repo operation at 0.25% of bank-wise NDTL and through 14-day variable term repo auctions at 0.75% of system-wide NDTL.

From September 5, 2014 the RBI would conduct 14-day variable repo auction four times during a reporting fortnight, i.e. on every Tuesday and Friday for an amount equivalent to one-fourth of 0.75% of NDTL in each auction. The aim is to ensure that the access to liquidity under these term repos remains equivalent to 0.75% of NDTL at all times.

The RBI would also look to infuse liquidity through

overnight variable repo auctions depending on the assessment of the liquidity conditions as well as Government cash balances available for auction for the day.

Similarly, overnight variable reverse repo auctions

would be conducted based on an assessment of the liquidity conditions and would be conducted on days when it is considered necessary.

The overnight fixed rate reverse repo operation

would continue without any restriction on the amount. The liquidity infusion through Marginal Standing Facility for individual banks would be equivalent up to excess SLR plus 2% below SLR and, through export credit refinance as per the existing limits


Page 15

Income funds The structural positive outlook for the debt market remains intact with

the pro-growth government expected to make structural changes in the economy to manage inflation and fiscal deficit. Some of the macroeconomic variables like current account deficit and currency volatility and inflation have already started showing an improvement

Yields at the longer end of the yield curve may drift lower eventually on the back of improving macroeconomic data and some signs of action by the government on some major structural reforms. Near term, second half borrowing calendar may provide some trigger

Among income funds, ultra short-term debt funds remain better suited with the potential to earn better pre-tax return over that earned on short-term bank fixed deposits apart from having the liquidity advantage. Long term income funds will be less attractive now as a longer holding period (more than three years) will neutralise any capital gains in the near term on account of relatively lower accrual income

Investors who want to invest into short-term debt funds should consider accrual funds or credit opportunities fund as they will be less volatile in nature. The tax advantage for more than three year investment horizon stays while for less than three year taxation is now at par with other bank deposits

Exhibit 21: Higher yield attracts strong inflows

-450

1

-265

7

-927

4

-163

4

3123

-333

3

-895

4

5905

1295

5

7838

-992

7

1009

6

1307

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

Jun-

13

Jul-1

3

Aug-

13

Sep-

13

Oct-1

3

Nov

-13

Dec-

13

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr-1

4

May

-14

Jun-

14

Net

Inflo

ws

(| .C

r)


Exhibit 22: AUM steady

4413

11

4317

33

4202

66

4245

96

4339

70

4310

50

4244

45

4319

44

4471

81

4606

71

4580

09

4738

87

4789

82

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000Ju

n-13

Jul-1

3

Aug-

13

Sep-

13

Oct-1

3

Nov

-13

Dec-

13

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr-1

4

May

-14

Jun-

14

| Cr

ore

Income


Recommended funds

Ultra Short Term Funds Birla Sun Life Savings Fund Franklin India Ultra Short Term Bond Fund ICICI Prudential Flexible income

Short Term Funds Birla Sunlife short term fund HDFC Short Term Opportunities Fund ICICI Pru Short Term Plan

Short Term Funds – Credit opportunities Birla Sunlife Medium term Franklin India Short term Plan HDFC Corporate debt opportunities ICICI Prudential Regular Savings

Long term/Dynamic Birla Sunlife income plus ICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond Fund IDFC dynamic bond fund


View Ultra-short term: Positive

Short-term: Positive Long-term: Positive

Ultra-short-term fund returns are attractive on risk adjusted basis Short-term funds will benefit as short-term yields are likely to decline first compared to long-term yields. Credit opportunities funds earn the highest accrual and are the best in the category Dynamic bond funds are suitable for all types of investors and for longer duration. They can take exposure to all durations as per the interest rate outlook and switch between G secs and corporate bonds


Page 16

Gilt Funds With a strong government in place, decisions around credible fiscal

compression, which were difficult in a coalition, can now potentially be made. Supply side measures that can ease input cost inflation and improve the potential growth rate can also help the disinflation process

The government has stuck to the fiscal deficit target of 4.1% for FY15 and has guided for 3.6% in FY16 and 3% in FY17. The gross borrowing for the current financial year remains almost same at | 6 lakh crore against market expectation of increased borrowing. The guidance for lower fiscal deficit in the next three years is positive for debt markets in the medium term in terms of G-sec supply

G-Sec funds will be less attractive now as the longer holding period (more than three years) will neutralise any capital gains in the near term because of lower accrual income

Recommended funds

Birla Sun Life Gilt Plus - PF Plan - Regular ICICI Prudential LT Gilt Fund - PF Option - Regular




Page 17

Gold ETFs: International prices maintain negative bias International gold prices fell to an eight-month low to ~ US$1215/ounce

on the outlook for higher US interest rates that strengthened the dollar and receding geo-political tensions in the Ukraine-Russia conflict

Indian gold prices also fell close to a one year low to just above | 26000 per 10 gram tracking global prices

The outlook for Indian gold prices remains subdued due to the following reasons a Improving US economy: The improvement in the US and global

economy has led to a shift in demand, which was generated at the time when the US economy was in doldrums and investors had no choice but to resort to gold. Investors were worried that the US government may default and started selling the US dollar to buy gold as a safe haven

b Import restrictions: Indian gold prices remain resilient even as global prices corrected from all-time highs as the UPA government had imposed import restrictions to bring down India's current account deficit and stem the rupee decline. We have already witnessed a sharp correction when there was an announcement of easing of restriction on gold imports by the Reserve Bank of India. A further correction is not ruled out if the new government decides to further remove import restrictions

c Currency volatility: One of the reasons for gold prices remaining high in India despite weak international prices was a sharp depreciation of the Indian rupee, which fell to a low of | 68.70 per dollar last August. Oil imports, FII outflows and an appreciating US dollar had kept the Indian currency under pressure. However, the rupee strengthened following measures by the previous Finance Minister and RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan. It bounced back to | 60 per dollar. Recent inflows in the Indian market on hopes of a stable government have strengthened the rupee further. The Indian currency is likely to be more stable with an appreciating bias and the same may keep Indian gold prices under pressure

d Better returns in equities: While gold has failed to give positive returns in the last year, investors are slowly moving back to equities after a five-year lull for better returns. While Indian equity markets hit all-time high levels and witnessed renewed buying interest, gold has delivered negative returns

Exhibit 23: Gold ETF AUM declines

1182

8

1041

5

9894

9325

8784 8996 93

30

8676

8527

7781

7943

7773

7661

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

Aug-

13

Sep-

13

Oct-1

3

Nov

-13

Dec-

13

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr-1

4

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug-

14

| Cr

ore

Gold ETFs

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Gold($/Ounce)

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr-1

4

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug-

14

Sep-

14

Price ($/Ounce)


Gold (INR spot)

25000260002700028000290003000031000320003300034000

Apr-1

3

Jun-

13

Aug-

13

Oct-1

3

Dec-

13

Feb-

14

Apr-1

4

Jun-

14

Aug-

14

|

Price (|/10 grams)


5

Profit booking in gold ETFs

-588

-294

-288

-131

-157

-165

-178 -149

-146

-341 -2

27 -105

-112

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

Aug-

13Se

p-13

Oct-1

3N

ov-1

3De

c-13

Jan-

14Fe

b-14

Mar

-14

Apr-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4Au

g-14

Net

Inflo

w (

| Cr

)



Page 18

Model Portfolios

Equity funds model portfolio Investors who are wary of investing directly into equities can still get returns almost as good as equity markets through the mutual fund route. We have designed three mutual fund model portfolios, namely, conservative, moderate and aggressive mutual fund portfolios. These portfolios have been designed keeping in mind various key parameters like investment horizon, investment objective, scheme ratings, and fund management. We have changed the mutual funds portfolio in July, to include midcap funds as we believe an improvement in the growth scenario may generate better alpha in midcap stocks over large cap stocks Exhibit 24: Equity model portfolio Particu lars Ag g ressive Mod erate C onservativeR eview In terval Monthly Monthly Q uarterlyR isk R etu rn H igh R isk- H igh

R eturnMedium R isk -

Medium R eturnL ow R isk - L ow

R eturn

F und s Allocation

F ranklin India P rima P lus 20 20 20B irla S unlife F rontline E quity 20 20 20IC IC I P rudentia l D ynamic P lan - - 20U T I O pportunites - 20 20R e liance L ong T erm E quity 20 - -IC IC I P rudentia l V a lue D iscovery 20 20 20H D F C Midcap O pportunites 20 20 -

% Allocation

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 25: Compounded annualised return (since inception)

20.9019.57 19.72

15.94

0

5

10

15

20

25

Aggressive Moderate Conservative BSE 100

(%)

Returns

Source: Crisil Fund Analyser, ICICIdirect.com Research Portfolio inception date : April 15, 2009)

Changes to model portfolio Fund Aggressive Previous CurrentFranklin India Prima Plus 25Birla Sunlife Frontline Equity 25ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan 20UTI Opportunites 25 20Reliance Long Term Equity 20ICICI Prudential Value Discovery 20HDFC Midcap Opportunites 20ICICI Prudential Focussed Blue-Chip 25Moderate Previous CurrentFranklin India Prima Plus 25 20Birla Sunlife Frontline Equity 25 20ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan 25 20UTI Opportunites 25ICICI Prudential Value Discovery 20HDFC Midcap Opportunites 20Conservative Previous CurrentFranklin India Prima Plus 25 20Birla Sunlife Frontline Equity 25 20ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan 25 20UTI Opportunites 25 20HDFC Midcap Opportunites 20

Allocation (%)


Page 19

Debt funds model portfolio We have designed three different mutual fund model portfolios for different investment duration namely less than six months, six months to one year and above one year. These portfolios have been designed keeping in mind various key parameters like investment horizon, interest rate scenarios, credit quality of the portfolio and fund management, etc.

Exhibit 26: Debt funds model portfolio

Particulars

0 – 6 months 6months - 1 Year Above 1 Year

Objective LiquidityLiquidity with

moderate returnAbove FD

Review Interval Monthly Monthly Quarterly

Risk ReturnVery Low Risk - Nominal Return

Medium Risk - Medium Return

Low Risk - HighReturn

Funds Allocation

Ultra Short term FundsBirla SL Savings Fund 20 - -Franklin India Ultra Short Bond Fund 20 - -ICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan 20 - -Short Term Debt FundsBirla Sunlife Medium Term Plan 20Birla Sunlife Short Term Fund 20 20 -Birla Sunlife Short Term Opportunites Fund

- 20Franklin India Short Term Income Fund - - 20HDFC Medium Term Opportunities Fund 20HDFC Short Term Opportunities Fund 20 20 -ICICI Prudential Regular Savings - - 20ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund - 20 -IDFC SSI Short Term - -Sundaram Select Debt - 20UTI Short Term Fund - -Long Term/Dynamic Debt FundsIDFC Dynamic Bond fund - - 20Total 100 100 100

Time Horizon

% Allocation

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 27: Model portfolio performance : CY14 YTD Aug 31, 2014

5.76 6.12 6.525.94

6.51

7.88

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

0-6 Months 6Months - 1Year Above 1yr

%

Portfolio Index

Source: Crisil Fund Analyser, , ICICIdirect.com Research

*Index: 0-6 month’s portfolio – Crisil Liquid Fund Index; 6 months-1 year – Crisil Short term Index Above 1 year: Crisil Composite Bond Index


Page 20

Top Picks: September 2014 Exhibit 28: Category wise top picks

Category Top Picks

Short Term Long Term

Largecaps Positive Positive Axis Equity Fund

Birla Sunlife Frontline equity Fund

ICICI Pru Focussed Bluechip Equity Fund

UTI opportunites Fund

Midcaps Positive Positive HDFC Midcap Opportunities Fund

ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund

Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund

SBI Magnum Global Fund

Diversified Positive Positive Franklin India Prima Plus

ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan

Reliance Equity Opportunites

ELSS Positive Positve Axis Long Term Equity

ICICI Prudential Tax Plan

Franklin India Tax shield

Debt

Category View Top Picks

Liquid Funds Positive HDFC Cash Mgmnt Saving Plan

ICIC Pru Liquid Plan

Reliance Liquid Treasury Plan

Ultra Short Term Positve Birla Sunlife Savings Fund

Franklin India Ultra Short Term Bond Fund

ICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan

Short Term Positive Birla Sunlife Short Term FundHDFC Short Term Opportunities Fund

ICICI Pru Short Term Plan

Credit Opportunities Fund Positive Birla Sunlife Medium Term Plan

Franklin India Short term Plan

ICICI Prudential Regular Savings

Income Funds Neutral ICICI Prudenti Dynamic Bond Fund

Birla Sun Life Income Plus - Regular Plan

IDFC Dynamic Bond Fund

Gilts Funds Neutral ICICI Pru Gilt Inv. PF Plan

Birla Sunlife Gilt Plus

MIP Positive Birla Sunlife Savings 5

View

Equity

Recommendation: September 2014

(Refer www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)


Page 21

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]

Disclaimer ICICI Securities Ltd. - AMFI Regn. No.: ARN-0845. Registered office of I-Sec is at ICICI Securities Ltd. - ICICI Centre, H. T. Parekh Marg, Churchgate, Mumbai - 400020, India. The selection of the Mutual Funds for the purpose of including in the indicative portfolio does not in any way constitute any recommendation by ICICI Securities Limited (hereinafter referred to as ICICI Securities) with respect to the prospects or performance of these Mutual Funds. The same should also not be considered as solicitation of offer to buy or sell these securities/units. The investor has the discretion to buy all or any of the Mutual Fund units forming part of any of the indicative portfolios on icicidirect.com. Before placing an order to buy the securities/units forming part of the indicative portfolio, the investor has the discretion to deselect any of the securities/units, which he does not wish to buy. Nothing in the indicative portfolio constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to the investor's specific circumstances. The details included in the indicative portfolio are based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. The securities included in the indicative portfolio may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgement by any investor. The investor should independently evaluate the investment risks. ICICI Securities and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this indicative portfolio. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. ICICI Securities may be holding all or any of the securities/units included in the indicative portfolio from time to time. ICICI Securities Limited is not providing the service of Portfolio Management Services (Discretionary or Non Discretionary) to its clients. Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. The information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities Limited. The contents of this mail are solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments or any other product. While due care has been taken in preparing this mail, I-Sec and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of any inaccurate, delayed or incomplete information nor for any actions taken in reliance thereon. This mail/report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject I-Sec and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.

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