Mutual Cooperation for Energy Issues in Northeast · PDF fileMutual Cooperation for Energy...
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Mutual Cooperation for Energy Issues in Northeast Asia
Northeast Asia Petroleum Forum 2005September 21, 2005
Fumiaki WatariChairman of the Board
NIPPON OIL CORPORATION
AGENDA
1. Regional Energy Issues
2. National Energy Policy of Japan
3. Regional Cooperation for Energy Issues
1
Regional Oil Supply and Demand Outlook• Economic growth: 2.9% / year (2000 - 10)• Increase in oil demand: 2.2% / year (2005 - 10)• Dependence on oil supply from outside the region: 75%(2005) →79%(2010)
Dependence on Imported Crude Oilin Northeast Asia
3,620 3,400
10,75012,660
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
2005 2010
K BD
ImportImportShare+4%
Production
79%75%
Dependence on ImportedCrude Oil in Northeast AsiaOil Demand Growth by Country
6,750
5,410
8,500
2,440
5,120
2,210
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
China Korea Japan
K BD
+1,750 K BDAverage +4.7%/y
2005 2010 2005 2010 2005 2010 China Korea Japan
+230 K BDAverage +2.0%/y
-290 K BDAverage -1.1%/y
<Source> 2005: IEA Monthly Report 2010: Estimate by Nippon Oil Research Institute
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
1990 2000 2010
Korea
China
from 1990 to 2010+1,255 million
tonnes
Japan
OtherAsia1,975
2,669
1,414
Korea
Japan4%
Korea8%
China48%
OtherAsia
40%
Three Major Issues to be Addressed
• CO2 emission in Asia will bedoubled from 1990 to 2010.
• Northeast Asia accounts for60% of the increase.
1. Threatened energy security
3. Constraints for sustainable economic growth
2. Increasing CO2 emission
CO2 emission trends in Asia
<Source> IEEJ Asia/world energy outlook
• Fierce competition for energyresources
• Insufficient oil stockpile
• Hovering high crude oil price• Importance of energy-saving efforts
China
KoreaJapan
OtherAsia
million tonnescarbon equivalent
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National Energy Policy of Japan
1.Objectives of the national energy policy of Japan
EnvironmentalHarmony
EEnvironmentalHarmony
EnergySecurityEEnergySecurity
Efficiency/EconomyEEfficiency/Economy
3E2.Measures taken to achieve the objectives
• Diversification of energy sources• Building of oil stockpile• Energy conservation efforts
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5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1973 1990 2000 2010 2030
77%
16%
41410%10%
57%
17%
520
15%
14%
45%
19%
604
13%
13%
50%
18%
608
18%
15%
42%
17%
6075%
million KLcrude oil equivalent
3%
Oil (incl. LPG)
Coal
LNG
Nuclear
Hydropower &Geothermal energy
Renewables etc
• Share of oil in primary energy mix: 77% (1973) → 50% (2000)• Share of oil in power generation: 71% (1973) → 10% (2004)• Oil is projected to be a major energy source: approx. 40% in 2030
Primary Energy Supply in Japan
Diversification of Energy Sources
<Source> METI Comprehensive energy statistics
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Amount of Oil Stockpile
5681 94 94
76 79 74 79
88 9185
6953
267
0
170
1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2005/6
days equivalent
Private sector
Government
Building of Oil Stockpile
<Source> Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
• Stockpiling on the private sector (from 1972)• Government stockpiling (from 1978)• Current level: 170 days of forward demand (Private and Government)• Mainstay of the energy security measures
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Energy Conservation Efforts(1)“Top Runner Standard” under the Energy Conservation Law
Adoption of the highest efficiency levels achieved by the “top runner”appliance/machinery manufacturers as a legal obligation for energy conservation.
12.3 12.112.4
12.913.2
13.514.0
14.6 14.715.0
11
12
13
14
15
16
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(FY)
km/L
BaseYear
453
358 329 301237
411504
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(FY)
kWh/y
Base Year
22%Improvement
Power Consumption of Refrigerator Gasoline Mileage (Passenger Vehicle)
48%Reduction
*Average power consumption of a typical class per year<Source> The Energy Conservation Center, Japan
*Weighted average of all gasoline passenger vehicles newly soldin each year <Source> Survey by METI and MLIT
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Energy Conservation Efforts (2)Outcomes of Energy Conservation Efforts• Primary energy consumption per GDP: approx. 30% reduction (1973 to 2002)• Outstanding energy-saving performance among peer countries
1.0 1.62.8 3.3 3.7 4.4
7.3
9.3
18.2
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Japan EU USA Korea Canada ASEAN MiddleEast
China Russia
Energy consumption in tonnes oil equivalentGDP in thousand US$
Primary Energy Consumption per GDP (Japan) Comparison by Country (in 2002)
*Calculated by the following formula
105
93.990.5
94.391.8 90.3
124
80
90
100
110
120
130
1973 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002
tonnes per thousand US$
*Calculated by the same method as the left graph(Japan=1.0)
<Source> EDMC Energy economics statistics outline
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Kyoto Protocol Target
1,331 1,311
1,237
-6%
1990 2002 2010 2010(actual) (actual) (forecast) (target)
BASELINE (=1990FY actual)
TARGET LEVEL
(=1990FY-6%)
1,163
+6%+7.6%
Total -12.0
-1.6
-1.7
-3.9
-4.8CO2 emissionfrom energyconsumption
HCFC, Methane
Forestabsorption
CDM etc
• Higher capacity utilization of nuclear power plants• Tighter control on Top Runner standards
Concrete Measures
Greenhouse Gas Emission Trend
-12%
Accounts for 1.1% CO2 reductionin Japan (approx. 14 million tonnes / year)
Measures taken by the petroleum Industry• Reduction of energy consumption at refineries• 100% shift to sulfur-free fuels
(gasoline & diesel oil, from January 2005)• Introduction of biomass fuels (under feasible study)
unit: million tonnes
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Blueprint for the Future• Regionally integrated economy⇒ Interdependent economies⇒ Global trend of regionalism
(e.g. NAFTA, EU)
• Cooperative framework for CO2reduction⇒ Cross-border influences caused
by environmental issues
Unilateral approach of individual country is not adequate.
Key factor for resolving regional energy issues in Northeast Asia:
Regional cooperation among China, Korea and Japan
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Mutual Cooperation for Energy Issuesin Northeast Asia
Areas of Cooperation:
EnergySecurityEnergySecurity
Efficiency/Economy
Efficiency/Economy
EnvironmentalHarmony
EnvironmentalHarmony
1. Reinforcement of oil stockpiling• Japan :170days, Korea:106days, China: - (2005∼) • Transfer of oil stockpiling know-how accumulatedin Korea and Japan
• Effectiveness of environmental protection measuresimplemented by the Japanese petroleum industrye.g. sulfur-free fuels, IGCC*, energy-saving measures
at refineries
2. Technological cooperation in environmentalprotection
*Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle power generation using heavy oil residue
3. Utilization of surplus refining capacity• Deficit of product supply in China• Regional optimization through products trading
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ConclusionFor achieving 3E in Northeast Asia
• Regional Cooperation is a key factor.
• Participation in the worldwide efforts to tackle global warmingis recommended. (i.e. the post-Kyoto Protocol regime)
Our sense of “one region”
• Awareness that energy is finite and valuable should befurther developed.
Our actions as a “global citizen”
Our awareness of “finite energy resources”and last but not least...
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