Muntaseer Billah, Satoru Chatani and Kengo Sudo Department of Earth and Environmental Science...
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![Page 1: Muntaseer Billah, Satoru Chatani and Kengo Sudo Department of Earth and Environmental Science Graduate School of Environmental Studies Nagoya University,](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081506/56649e3a5503460f94b2bb0c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Muntaseer Billah, Satoru Chatani and Kengo Sudo
Department of Earth and Environmental Science Graduate School of Environmental Studies
Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan
Presented at the 8th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 19-21, 2009
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Bangladesh
Location: 20°34´ and 26°38´ N 88°01´ and 92°41´ E
Area: 147, 570 sq kmPopulation: 158.6 millionsPopulation density: 1045/ sq km Population growth: 1.8%Urban population: 27%Major cities: Dhaka (12 millions), Chittagong (7 millions), Khulna (3.5millions)
Rajshahi (3 millions)Climate: Tropical monsoon climate, with a hot and rainy summer and a dry winter
Average Winter temp. (Max. 26°c Min. 11°c)Average Summer temp. (Max. 36°c Min. 21°c)
Bangladesh: at a glance
Source: World Bank
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Background Air pollution is the major environmental threat in Bangladesh,
particularly big cities e.g., Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, Rajshahi… Air pollution cause annually ~15000 deaths (~5000 in Dhaka) ~million cases of sickness requiring medical treatment ~850 million of minor illness Economic cost of air pollution in four major cities around US$200-
$800 million per year Equivalent to 0.7%-3% of country’s GDP per year
Construction work Vehicle emission
Brick kiln emission
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Air Quality Status in Dhaka
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1-hour ozone standard
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PM10 PM2.5
65 µg/m3 24 Hour Standard for PM2.5150 µg/m3 24 Hour Standard for PM10
Monthly average of PM10 and PM2.5
Dhaka experiences winter peak ozone
Real time gas monitors
USEPA certified PM samplers
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ObjectiveSurrounded by India which is a
significant air pollutants emitter in Asia
During high pollution episodes, Bangladesh receives most air masses from India.
During low pollution episode, Bangladesh receives air masses from Bay of Bengal
Regional sources of air pollution may be significant for Bangladesh
Both local and regional contribution of air pollution need to be identified
Main ObjectiveTo identify and quantify the local and regional source
contribution of air pollution in Bangladesh
Average wind field generated by MCIP for
January 2004
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Modeling Tools Meteorological Model: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) version 3.1 Met Data: NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data (1˚× 1˚) Air Quality Model: Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) version 4.7 Emission Data: REAS emission inventory developed by Frontier Research
Center for Global Change.
Physics option
Scheme
Microphysics WRF Single-Moment 3-class scheme
Long wave radiation
RRTM scheme
Short wave radiation
Dudhia scheme
Surface layer MM5 similarity
Land surface Noah Land Surface Model
Planetary Boundary Layer
Yonsei University Scheme
Cumulus Parameterization
Grell 3d ensemble cumulus scheme
Mechanism Option
Chemical mechanism
Statewide Air Pollution Research Center mechanism (SAPRC99)
Aerosol module aero4
WRF CMAQ
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Domain Setup
Domain-1 Domain-2
Area 3600 km2 1200 km2
WRF Grids 81 ×81×27 79 ×79×27
CMAQ Grids 69 ×69×27 67 ×67×27
Grid Size 45 km 15 km
Horizontal Co-ordinate
Lambert conformal
Lambert conformal
Geographical Co-ordinate
6°N to 40° N 70°E to 110°E
18°N to 28°N 84°E to 96°E
Dhaka City
Model Configuration
Study Area
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January 2004
Episode Selection
Month-long episodes have been chosen for this sensitivity study to represent typical peak pollution episode in Bangladesh
Monthly average PM10 and PM2.5Air pollution in
Bangladesh has distinct seasonal variation
High pollution episode observed during dry winter season
Relatively cleaner atmosphere during wet summer season
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Emission Database and Sensitivity Cases
Case Emission sensitivity
Case-1(Base case)
Original REAS emission
Case-2 Shut-off emission in Region-1 (Inside Bangladesh)
Case-3 5-times increase of emission in Region-1 (Inside Bangladesh)
Case-4 Shut-off emission in Region-2 (West Bengal)
Case-5 Shut-off emission in Region-3 (North India)
Case-6 Shut-off emission in Region-2 (West Bengal) and Region-3 (North India)Potential emission source
region
Region-1
Region-2
Region-3
Sensitivity Cases
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With Original REAS emissionCASE-1
CMAQ can capture 24-hour average PM2.5 trends but underestimate.CMAQ can not capture hourly variation of gaseous pollutants and largely underestimate.
Possible Reasons:Same emission input was used for both domain.Seasonal variation of emission is not considered in REAS inventory.Biomass burning is not included in REAS inventory.
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Comparison of NO2 with satellite NO2 column data
CASE-1Original REAS emission
SCIAMACHYCMAQ
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Shut-off emission in Region-1 (Inside Bangladesh)CASE-2
0.2 ppm to 0.5 ppm CO
20 to 40 µg/m3 PM2.5
40 to 45 ppb O3
CMAQ Result – Monthly Average for January 2004
O3
PM2.5
CO
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5-times increase of emission in Region-1 (Inside Bangladesh)
CASE-3Domain-1: Monthly Average
Domain-2: Comparison with hourly observation
CO O3 PM2.5
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Shut-off emission in Region-2 (West Bengal)CASE-4
Difference between Case1 and Case4
CO O3 PM2.5
Avg: 3 ppb Max: 9 ppb
Avg: 0.04 ppm Max: 0.2
ppm
Avg: 7 µg/m3 Max: 23
µg/m3
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CASE-5Shut-off emission in Region-3 (North India)
Difference between Case1 and Case5
CO O3 PM2.5
Avg: 0.04 ppm Max: 0.1
ppm
Avg: 4 ppb Max: 8 ppb
Avg: 7 µg/m3 Max: 13
µg/m3
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Contribution of West Bengal (Region-2) and North India (Region-3) in %
CASE-4 vs CASE-5
West Bengal
North India
CO O3 PM2.5
CO O3 PM2.5
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Shut-off emission in Region-2 (West Bengal) and Region-3 (North India)
CASE-6
Contribution in %
PM2.5O3CO
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Estimated Transboundary Contribution
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WRF was able to generate required meteorological inputs for CMAQ model for this region.
CMAQ captured the PM2.5 trends well Concentrations of gaseous pollutant were largely
underestimated by CMAQ. These discrepancies were heavily depended on emission input of CMAQ model.
CMAQ was highly sensitive to emission input which revealed the underestimation of REAS emission in this region by factor of 3~5.
Significant contributions of transboundary transport of pollution were found inside Bangladesh.
Conclusions
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Performance evaluation for Kolkata City (24-h average air quality data is available for 2007-2008).
Use of another emission inventory for this region e.g., Streets et al. (2003)
Development and use of own emission inventory.
Future Direction of Study
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Thank You