Municipality ofChatham-Kent

Municipal Comprehensive Review –

Phase 1

Council Presentation

March 6, 2012

W. Scott Morgan & Associates LimitedW. Scott Morgan & Associates Limited

In 2009, Watson & Associates completed a long-term population, housing and employment forecast for the Municipality of Chatham-Kent.

Among the key findings of this study for population and households were the following:

Chatham-Kent’s population is forecast to increase modestly from 112,000 in 2006 to approximately 118,000 by 2031.

The Chatham-Kent population forecast is based on an average of 188 new housing units per year between 2011 and 2031.

Introduction

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2011 Census, released February 8, 2012, shows a decline of approx. 4,500 population and 400 total dwelling units for Chatham-Kent over the 2006-2011 period.

According to the Census: The majority of the decline in total dwellings is concentrated in the community of Chatham. The population decline is more broadly dispersed across Chatham-Kent as a whole.

2011 Census Review

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2011 Census Review

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Source: Derived from 2011 and 2006 Census Profile Dissemination Area Level data by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.Note: Total Private Dwelling Figures exclude the Moravian 47 Indian Reserve1. Private Dwelling totals by Primary Urban Area based on Dissemination Area which roughly coincide with Primary Urban Settlement Area boundaries. In many cases, DA’s included also encompass rural lands located outside of Primary Urban Settlements.

Municipality of Chatham-KentTotal Private Dwellings, 2006-2011

2006 2011 Change 2006-11Rate of Change,

2006-2011Blenheim 2,874 2,921 47 1.6%Chatham 21,310 20,829 (481) -2.3%Dresden 1,467 1,459 (8) -0.5%Ridgetown 1,512 1,467 (45) -3.0%Tilbury 2,165 2,142 (23) -1.1%Wallaceburg 5,142 5,195 53 1.0%Wheatley 1,378 1,411 33 2.4%Other 10,766 10,785 19 0.2%Total 46,614 46,209 (405) -0.2%

Total Private DwellingsPrimary Urban

Settlement1

2011 Census Review

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Municipality of Chatham-KentPopulation, 2006-2011

Source: Derived from 2011 and 2006 Census Profile Dissemination Area Level data by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.Note: Population Figures exclude the Moravian 47 Indian Reserve1. Population totals by Primary Urban Area based on Dissemination Area which roughly coincide with Primary Urban Settlement Area boundaries. In many cases, DA’s included also encompass rural lands located outside of Primary Urban Settlements.

2006 2011 Change 2006-11Rate of Change,

2006-2011Blenheim 6,481 6,331 (150) -2.3%Chatham 48,606 46,805 (1,801) -3.7%Dresden 3,559 3,525 (34) -1.0%Ridgetown 3,357 3,232 (125) -3.7%Tilbury 5,336 5,166 (170) -3.2%Wallaceburg 11,842 11,275 (567) -4.8%Wheatley 3,589 3,614 25 0.7%Other 25,407 23,723 (1,684) -6.6%Total 108,177 103,671 (4,506) -4.2%

PopulationPrimary Urban

Settlement1

When considering the decline in total dwellings, the following factors must also be considered:

Chatham-Kent has issued approx. 790 residential building permits over the past five years.

Building permits for new dwellings have significantly outpaced demolitions.

Consistent with residential building permit activity, MPAC data also shows a positive increase in total dwellings between 2006 and 2011.

2011 Census Review (Housing)

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Impacts of 2011 Census on Chatham-Kent Housing Forecast and Land Needs

In light of these trends, the 2011 Census has not altered our forecast of annual housing construction (average of 188 units per year) over the 2011 to 2031 forecast period.

2011 Census Review (Housing)

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Chatham-Kent Historical vs. Forecast Housing Development

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Over the past 20 years, average residential building permit activity has averaged approximately 225 units per year (new units only).

Residential building permit activity declined post 2008, largely as a result of the global financial crisis, but rebounded modestly in 2010.

295

262 263270

303

235

264 264

285275

245

207

173 172187

242

209 203

158

96

123

162

205 205 205 205215 215 215 215 215

180 180 180 180 180

160 160 160 160 160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ho

us

ing

Un

its

Years

Historical Low Density Medium Density High Density Historical Average

Source: Historical building permits (1990-1998) provided by Statistics Canada Publication 64-001-XIB. Historical building permits (1999-2010) provided by the Municipality of Chatham-Kent Building Development. Forecast provided by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Impacts of 2011 Census on Chatham-Kent Population Forecast

2011 Census shows a decline of 4,500 population for Chatham-Kent over the 2006-2011 period. This is partially a result of a greater decrease in the average number of persons per unit (PPU) from 2006 to 2011 than estimated.

The 2006 to 2011 Census population decline will require a downward adjustment to the 2011 to 2031 population forecast in the Phase 1 report which will be revised.

   

2011 Census Review (Population)

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Based on our review of historical residential building activity and MCAP data, the 2009 housing forecast has been maintained.

Accordingly, we do not anticipate that the 2011 Census will have any impact on the residential land needs analysis identified in the Phase 1 Comprehensive Review Report.

Impacts of 2011 Census on Findings of Phase 1 Comprehensive Review

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Employment The 2009 Growth Analysis Study forecasts that Chatham-Kent’s

employment base (i.e. jobs) will reach approximately 48,900 by 2031.

Based on our review of recent non-residential building activity, plant closures and trends in industrial building vacancy, Chatham-Kent’s 2011 job base is approximately 400 employees higher than previously forecast in 2009.

In accordance with our current 2011 employment estimate of 46,100, this represents an increase of approximately 2,800 jobs between 2011 and 2031.

The 2009 long-term employment forecast remains as a reasonable 2031 long-term employment outlook for the municipality.

2009 Chatham-Kent Growth Analysis Study - Employment

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Phase 1 Comprehensive Review

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Population Growth by Geographic Area, 2011-2031

85 % of Chatham-Kent’s forecast total population growth from 2011 to 2031 has been allocated to Primary Urban Centres, including Blenheim, Chatham, Dresden, Ridgetown, Tilbury, Wallaceburg and Wheatley.

Of the total population forecast to the Primary Urban Centres, 71% has been allocated to Chatham.

Allocation of Population Growth

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Total Primary Urban Centres

85%

Total Secondary Urban Centres

3%

Rural Area12%

Employment Growth by Geographic Area, 2011-2031

66 % of Chatham-Kent’s forecast total employment growth from 2011 to 2031 has been allocated to Primary Urban Centres.

Of the total employment forecast to the Primary Urban Centres and the Bloomfield Business Park, 63% has been allocated to community of Chatham.

Allocation of Employment Growth

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Total Primary Urban Centres

66%

Total Secondary Urban Centres

2%

Bloomfield Business Park

18%

Rural Area14%

Residential Land Needs The Provincial Policy Statement (PPS) requires municipalities to

provide sufficient land available through intensification and redevelopment and, if necessary, designated growth areas, to accommodate an appropriate range and mix of employment opportunities, housing and other land uses to meet projected needs for a time horizon of up to 20 years.

The PPS also requires municipalities near buildout to: Maintain at all times the ability to accommodate residential

growth for a minimum of 10 years on designated residential lands (including intensification and redevelopment); and

To provide at least a 3-year supply of residential units available in registered and draft approved and registered plans (including intensification and redevelopment).

Residential Land Needs

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Residential Land Needs

All of Chatham-Kent’s Primary Urban Centres meet the three-year, ten-year and up to 20-year housing requirement of the PPS.

Short-term housing supply is more limited in the Secondary Urban Centres.

For several Primary Urban Centres, a significant over-supply of designated residential land has been identified.

Residential Land Needs (cont’d)

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Industrial Land Needs Based on available supply of net developable industrial lands in

Chatham-Kent and forecast industrial land demand, a municipal-wide surplus of 121 net ha (298 net acres) has been identified.

Notwithstanding this municipal-wide industrial over-supply, there are significant mismatches in industrial supply and demand within Chatham-Kent.

Each of the industrial areas in Chatham-Kent attract different industrial markets given their location, access, proximity to labour, proximity to urban amenities, price of land, permitted uses, proximity to surrounding employment markets and related employment clusters, character of the employment area and surrounding non-industrial uses.

Industrial Land Needs

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Industrial Land Needs (Cont’d)

Based on the results of the Phase 1 Comprehensive Review, industrial land shortfalls have been identified in the following geographic areas by 2031:

Gross Hectares Wallaceburg 14 Bloomfield Business Park 11 Total Secondary Urban Centres 10 Remaining Rural Areas 5

Total 40

Industrial Land Needs (cont’d)

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Commercial and Institutional Land Needs Demand for commercial lands is forecast to be minimal outside

the Chatham Urban Centre, given the nominal levels of forecast population growth forecast across the remaining Primary and Secondary Urban Centres.

Based on existing commercial land supply and forecast demand, a total commercial land surplus of approximately 18 ha (45 acres) has been forecast for the Chatham Urban Centre by 2031.

Institutional land needs are forecast to be minimal for Chatham-Kent over the next 20 years as a result of modest forecast employment growth within this sector.

Commercial and Institutional Land Needs

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Questions ???