Municipal Water District of Orange County 2015 Water Supply Report February 10, 2015.
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Transcript of Municipal Water District of Orange County 2015 Water Supply Report February 10, 2015.
Municipal Water District of Orange County
2015 Water Supply Report
February 10, 2015
Local Precipitation – FY to Date
*As of 2/09/2015 Precipitation was 3 inches below our average for End of February
1969-70
1970-71
1971-72
1972-73
1973-74
1974-75
1975-76
1976-77
1977-78
1978-79
1979-80
1980-81
1981-82
1982-83
1983-84
1984-85
1985-86
1986-87
1987-88
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2014-15, 6.13 Inches
Average 9.6 Inches
Fiscal Year to Date Rainfall in Orange County, Ca Vs Previous YearsSanta Ana Civic Center Gauge #121
PRECIPITATION
Cumulative Year-to-Date 15 yr. Average Annual Rainfall: 13.74” Average: 6.70” 3.5-Year Deficit: 22.79” (2011-12 to Present)2014-15: 6.13”
Annual Precipitation
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-150
5
10
15
20
25
30
8.06
14.87
3.82
14.57
8.41
29.06
8.51
2.19
9.46 9.88
16.82
21.39
8.27
6.36
4.37
6.13
Average Rainfall 13.74 inches
Drought
Annual Precipitation Statistics
Rain
fall
(Inch
es)
Rainfall Comparison (5 Years)
* Overall December rainfall was above average but January and February have been very dry so far resulting in below average precipitation for the year.
October November December January February March April May June July August September0
5
10
15
20
25
Historical Average
2014-15
2013-14
2010-11 El Nino
2011-122012-13
Santa Ana Rainfall Historical Comparison
Rain
fall
(inch
es)
Rainfall Outlook (As Early February)
October November December January February March April May June July August September0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2014-15 Actual
If Normal Conditions Persist (Historical Monthly Averages)
If Dry Conditions Persist (*Repeat of 2013-14 Condi-
tions)
If Extremely Wet Conditions Persist (*Max Monthly Rainfall
going back to 97-98)
Santa Ana Rainfall 2014-15 Outlook
Rain
fall
(inch
es)
2015 vs. 2014 Temperatures
• Monthly temperatures in 2014 were hotter than average with January, May, September and October being the highest. ~2015 has started off very warm.
• Orange County in 2014: 2.4 degrees above 15 year average at John Wayne Airport
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95Extremely Warm in 2014
and 2015Very Warm Spring in 2014
Warm Fall months in 2014
75
7174
77
8280
85 8689
84
78
69
7477
Monthly Average Maximum Temperatures
Normal 2014 Actual 2015
Tem
pera
ture
(oF)
Sierra Nevada Accumulated Precipitation
1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep0
10
20
30
40
50Accumulated Precipitation (8-Station Precip Index)
Historical Average Water Year14-15
INCH
ES
102% of Normal29.9 Inches
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP02468
10121416
3.7 3.9
15.2
0.3
6.7
Monthly Precipitation (8 Station Precip Index)
Historical Average Monthly Total
INCH
ES
7 Inch Sur-plus -9 Inch Deficit
Statewide Reservoir ElevationsAs of February 9, 2015
~Both Oroville and San Luis Reservoirs have more water this time of year compared to last year at the same time.
- 500.0
1,000.0 1,500.0 2,000.0 2,500.0 3,000.0 3,500.0 4,000.0 Lake Oroville
Historical Average Daily Storage
-
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
San Luis Reservior
Historical Average Daily Storage
70% of Normal38% of normal Last
Year
Colorado River Basin Snowpack
10/110
/1410
/27 11/911
/22 12/512
/1812
/31 1/13
1/26 2/8 2/2
1 3/6 3/19 4/1 4/1
44/2
75/1
05/2
3 6/5 6/18 7/1 7/1
47/2
7 8/9 8/22 9/4 9/1
79/3
00
5
10
15
20
25
Snowpack Water Equivalent
Average Actual
Inch
es
80% of Avg
April Historical Peak
Colorado River Colorado River Reservoir ElevationsAs of Early February 2015
Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-163,5003,5253,5503,5753,6003,6253,650Lake Powell
Feet
Historical Projection
Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-161,0601,0701,0801,0901,1001,1101,1201,1301,1401,1501,1601,1701,180
Lake Mead
Feet
Surplus Trigger (1,145)
Shortage Trigger (1,075)
1,088 Feet
Projection
Historical
RESERVOIR STORAGE – February 2015
State Water Project “Table A” Allocation
2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
25%
60%
30%
5%10%
80%
65%
35%
5%
15 %
Initial AllocationFinal Allocation
National Weather Service 3 Month Weather Outlook (Feb-Apr)
50%-30% chance of above average Temperature for
California
40%- 30% chance of above average rainfall for Southern California
* NOAA is predicting greater chances of warm and wet weather for the rest of the 2015 winter
Current Drought Conditions
*As of Early February 2015 Extreme and Exceptional Drought Condition remain through most of California
Exceptional Drought
Extreme Drought
Severe Drought
Drought Conditions for CaliforniaDecember 2011 June 2012 December 2012 June 2013
December 2013 June 2014 December 2014 January 27th 2015
Category Description
D-0Abnormally
Dry
D-1Moderate Drought
D-2Severe Drought
D-3Extreme Drought
D-4Exceptional
Drought
February 3rd, 2015
Winter Drought Outlook
*Drought Conditions look to remain but improve in Southern California by April 30th 2015
*Drought Conditions look to persist or intensify in Northern California by April 30th 2015
Normal SWP Below Normal Dry SWP40% Allocation 20% Allocation 20% Allocation
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
CRA 1.0 MAF CRA 1.0 MAF CRA 1.0 MAF
SWP 1.0 MAFSWP 0.8 MAF
SWP 0.4 MAF
Shortage of 0.2 MAF
Shortage of 0.6 MAF
MAF
Expected MET Demand Level
Chances of Allocations in 2015
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