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GLOBAL warming i already ak-

ing i oll. In Darur, where ev-

eral hundred houand people

have died in recen year rom he

inernal confic, climae change ha exacer-

baed waer and land horage (becaue o growing deericaion), undermined agri-

culure, and ueled confic over hee carce

reource among he poor. On he oppoie

ide o he globe, many Pacic iland (and

he Maldive) ha are oen only cenimeer

above ea level are hreaened wih inunda-

ion by riing ea. In he dian norh, mel-

ing o he ea ice i aecing polar wildlie and

undermining he already precariou liveli-

hood o naive people.

thee grim harbinger o climae change

underline he need o beer underand

he phenomenon and addre he con-

equence. the lae repor o he UN’

Inergovernmenal Panel on Climae Change

(IPCC) ay ha global warming i a real-

iy and ha almo cerainly been caued by 

recen human aciviie ha have increaed

greenhoue ga (GHG) emiion. I alo

indicae ha climae change (characerized

by emperaure increae, ea level rie, and

precipiaion change) will coninue ino he

oreeeable uure and ineniy (ee Box 1),

wih poenially diarou conequence or

he plane and i inhabian.

the mo vulnerable group will be he

poor, he elderly, and children, including hoe

living in rich counrie. the mo aeced

region will be he Arcic, ub-saharan Arica,

mall iland, and Aian megadela. High rik

will be aociaed wih low-lying coaal area,waer reource in dry ropic and ubropic,

agriculure in low-laiude region, key ecoy-

em (uch a coral ree), and human healh

in poor area. Moreover, exreme weaher

even will woren, epecially ropical cyclone

and hea wave. the reul i ha propec or

achieving many o he eigh 2015 Millennium

Developmen Goal—which include povery 

reducion, beer healh and educaion, gender

equaliy, and aving he environmen—will

become even more remoe.

How can hi derucive cycle be broken?

the be hope lie in craing raegie ha

addre climae change and uainable devel-

opmen imulaneouly. thi i becaue he

wo iue are highly inerconneced: climae

change aec developmen propec and

developmen pah deermine he uure cli-

mae. A he global level, counrie need o

ac in a concered ahion o rehape human

aciviie on an unprecedened cale alhough,

adly, curren rend are no a all promiing

(ee Box 2). A he naional level, however, he

oulook migh be more hopeul, given ha

pracical mehod now exi or inegraing

Making

development

more

sustainable will

help address

climate change

Finance & Development March 2008 37

 A dry lake bed in Hubei Province, China.Mohan Munasinghe 

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climae change repone ino uainable developmen rae-

gie. Indeed, he exience o hee ool hould help o dipel

he concern o many policymaker ha ackling climae change

migh diver reource ha are orely needed o deal wih more

immediae developmen problem, uch a growh, povery,

ood ecuriy, ill healh, unemploymen, and inlaion.

How humans can cope

the wo pecic way ha human can repond o climae

change are hrough adapaion and miigaion. Adapaion

rie o reduce he vulnerabiliy o human and naural y-

em o he ree o climae change, wherea miigaion

aim o lower, or even remove, GHG emiion.  Adaptation responses.  Adapaion eor need o be

epped up, given ha long-erm, unmiigaed climae change

i likely o exceed he adapive capaciy o naural, managed

(agriculural), and human yem. Naural organim and

ecoyem end o adap auonomouly (or example, migra-

ion o animal a habia change, and growh-cycle change

in plan), bu many may no urvive i he rae o empera-ure rie i oo rapid. Human are capable o preplanned (or

anicipaory) adapaion, alhough reacive meaure are

oen neceary. Proven adapaion mehod exi—including

building dike again ea level rie, developing emperaure-

or drough-reian crop, and widening hazard inurance

coverage—bu hey need o be dieminaed more widely and

implemened by governmen, buinee, and civil ociey.

take coaal area hreaened by looding and orm a em-

peraure rie. Wih conan expendiure on coaal proec-

ion, abou 55–90 million people will be aeced annually by 

a 2°C warming. However, hee number may be draically 

cu (o 2–10 million) by marginally raiing annual coaal

proecion pending o mach GDP growh rae.

 Mitigation responses. Curren miigaion eor—primarily,

reducing he emiion ineniy o energy ue and increaing

carbon dioxide aborpion by planing ore—imilarly need

o improve. the reul would be lower GHG concenraion,

along wih oher benei, uch a beer healh, lower energy demand leading o greaer energy ecuriy, and greaer energy 

availabiliy or poor and rural area. A hi poin, we know he

echnological and policy opion ha could abilize GHG con-

cenraion in he range o 450–550 par per million by volume

(ppmv) wihin he nex 100 year. the eimaed median co

o miigaion meaure o achieve 550 ppmv migh amoun

o abou 1.3 percen o world GDP by 2050 (equivalen o an

annual reducion of GDP of le han 0.1 percen a year up o

2050), alhough he co of abilizaion a he 450 ppmv level

may exceed 3 percen of 2050 GDP.

38 Finance & Development March 2008

Box 1

The scientifc acts

For decade, he public debae over global warming boiled

down o a lile cience and a lo o conjecure. Bu in recen

 year, he world’ cieni have ound heir voice, and in he

2007 Fourth Assessment Report o he Inergovernmenal Panel

on Climae Change (IPCC)—which wa ounded 20 year ago

by he UN o provide an auhoriaive review o climae change

inormaion—many o he world’ leading cieni poke

wih one voice. their meage wa a grim one.

What we know. For more han 10,000 year, carbon diox-

ide concenraion in he amophere were able a abou280 par per million by volume (ppmv), bu, ollowing he

indurial revoluion, hee concenraion roe rapidly and

now exceed 380 ppmv. A a reul—and wih he help o oher

minor greenhoue gae (GHG), uch a mehane and nirou

oxide—over he pa 100 year, he plane’ urace ha warmed

by an average o 0.75°C, and he rae i acceleraing. Oher evi-

dence o global climae change include a yemaic rie in he

mean ea level (abou 16 cenimeer during he pa cenury),

he meling o ice in polar area and glacier, increaed dam-

age caued by exreme weaher even, le precipiaion in dry 

area and more precipiaion in we area, and igniican hi

in ecological cycle and animal behavior.

the IPCC predic ha in he abence o a eriou eor o

curb emiion, by 2100 carbon dioxide concenraion will

be abou wice he preindurial level (550 ppmv), he average

global emperaure will increae by abou 3°C above curren

level (he range being 1.1–6.4°C), and he mean ea level will

rie 35–40 cenimeer. Exreme o climae and precipiaion

will woren, and he meling o ice will accelerae becaue o 

he greaer warming o polar region. Even i emiion were

harply curbed, he IPCC eimae ha emperaure would

rie a lea 1.5°C more by 2100.

What we don’t know. the IPCC i coninuing o work onome imporan gap in knowledge. For example, he level

a which GHG concenraion are dangerou i no cienii-

cally cerain, alhough he European Union ha made a value

  judgmen ha 2°C (correponding o 450–500 ppmv) i he

olerable rik hrehold. One key parameer, o be deermined

more accuraely, i he eniiviy o climae o GHG con-

cenraion. the accuracy o he economic co o impac

alo need o be increaed, epecially ince many o hem will

occur in he dian uure. Becaue o ime lag, oen involv-

ing decade or even cenurie, caarophic oucome uch a

he meling o polar ice or change in oceanic circulaion are

hard o predic.

“Although per capita emissions

 will remain ar lower in developing 

nations than in industrial countries

or the oreseeable uture, total

emissions in the more populous

countries will become increasingly 

signifcant.”

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How would hi miigaion ake place? A key way i

hrough he lexibiliy mechanim in he 1997 Kyoo treay 

o comba global warming—uch a he Clean Developmen

Mechanim, Join Implemenaion, and Emiion trading—

which permi indurial counrie o raner par o heir

Kyoo emiion-reducion obligaion o oher naion

in exchange or paymen. Conider a Clean DevelopmenMechanim projec implemened in a developing counry,

where he incremenal co o planing a ore o aborb car-

bon would be only $10 a on o carbon. the aborbed carbon

would be credied o an indurial counry and e o again

he indurial counry’ miigaion obligaion under he

Kyoo Proocol—which migh oherwie have involved rero-

iing an exiing power plan a a co o $50 a on o carbon.

thi proce would be eicien becaue miigaion i done a

he lowe co. Furher, he money raner rom a rich o a

poor counry would be equiable, provided he developing

counry received more han he minimum paymen o $10

a on (o cover co)—ha i, i hared he $40 co aving.

Recen compenaion level have ranged rom $5 o $10 a onin developing counrie o abou $50 in Europe.

O coure, hee miigaion and adapaion eor raie

ough queion abou equiy and burden haring, which

oen dominae global debae. to dae, he bulk o greenhoue

gae—chiely carbon dioxide rom he burning o oil uel

and deoreaion—have been emied by he rich counrie (in

2004, average per capia GHG emiion in indurial counrie

were our ime greaer han hoe in developing counrie).Bu a he year progre, developing counrie will need

o boo heir energy ue (oen relying heavily on coal) o

alleviae povery and promoe developmen. Alhough per

capia emiion will remain ar lower in developing naion

han in indurial counrie or he oreeeable uure, oal

emiion in he more populou counrie will become

increaingly igniican. the Inernaional Energy Agency 

eimae ha by 2015, China will ake over rom he Unied

sae a he world’ op carbon dioxide emier, and India

will move up rom ih o hird place. And, urher compli-

caing maer, he poor counrie will be he one harde

hi by climae change. For now, developing counrie hould

ocu on adapaion, epecially o proec heir poor, wherearich counrie (which are beer endowed inancially and

echnically) hould lead he miigaion eor and alo ai

poorer counrie in boh heir adapaion and miigaion

work. Meanwhile middle-income counrie need o join he

miigaion eor over ime a hey become richer.

A ramework or action

Wha will i ake for global warming o grab he aenion of pol-

icymaker, who are invariably preoccupied wih he problem of 

oday? the anwer lie in convincing hem o inegrae climae

change policie ino each counry’ naional uainable develop-

men raegy. And he good new i ha many pracical way odo ju ha have been developed and ued over he pa 15 year.

One promiing framework—known a “uainomic”—offer

ome iniial pracical ep o help make he raniion from

he riky buine-a-uual cenario o a afer and more u-

ainable fuure. I draw on hree baic principle:

• Fir, he main goal mu be o make developmen more

uainable. thi ep-by-ep approach i more pracical and

permi u o addre urgen prioriie wihou delay, becaue

many unuainable aciviie are eaier o recognize and imple-

men (for example, conerving energy). suainable develop-

men i defined here a a proce (raher han an end poin).

• second, he hree elemen (or verice) o he uain-

able developmen riangle need o be given balanced rea-men. tha mean weighing social (incluion, empowermen,

and governance), economic (growh, eiciency, and abiliy),

and environmental (biodiveriy, naural reource, and pol-

luion) dimenion.

• third, deliberaion hould rancend radiional

boundarie (involving academic dicipline, pace, ime, and

akeholder). trandiciplinary analyi i eenial, becaue

iue and oluion cu acro convenional dicipline.

Problem uch a climae change alo pan he plane, play 

ou over cenurie, and concern every human being.

thee principle could help guide policymaker rying o

hape a long-erm conenu on reconciling miigaion co

Finance & Development March 2008 39

Box 2

A snapshot o global eorts

the 1992 UN Framework Convenion on Climae Change

(UNFCCC), acceped by 190 counrie, i he guiding docu-

men or inernaional acion. I eek “abilizaion o green-

houe ga concenraion in he amophere a a level ha

would preven dangerou anhropogenic inererence wih he

climae yem” . . . “on he bai o equiy and in accordance

wih [naion’] common bu diereniaed reponibiliie

and repecive capabiliie.” I noe ha developed coun-rie “hould ake he lead in combaing climae change” and

recognize “he peciic need and pecial circumance” o 

developing counrie. While acceping he “righ o promoe

uainable developmen,” he UNFCCC invoke he precau-

ionary principle ha “where here are hrea o eriou or

irreverible damage, lack o ull cieniic cerainy hould no

be ued a a reaon” or poponing meaure o preven cli-

mae change.

In an eor o implemen he UNFCCC, paricipaing

counrie agreed in lae 1997 on he Kyoo Proocol, which

came ino orce in February 2005. I peciie ha, by 2012,

Annex I (indurial) counrie will collecively reduce heir

emiion by 5 percen relaive o 1990 level, and Non-Annex I (developing) counrie are exemp rom mandaory 

emiion reducion. Currenly, 174 counrie have rai-

ied hi agreemen, alhough he Unied sae (he large

greenhoue ga (GHG) emier) ha rejeced i.

Neverhele, global GHG emiion roe by more han

70 percen rom 1970 o 2004, wih major increae ince

Kyoo. the road map agreed a he UNFCCC Bali meeing

in December 2007 e ou he agenda and imeable o cra a

po-Kyoo miigaion agreemen—along wih helping poor

counrie adap o climae change (wih improved inancial

and echnical help)—bu paricipan ailed o agree on pe-

ciic miigaion arge, mainly becaue o U.s. relucance.