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Transcript of Multiple Interactions Between Food and Water Security, Developing and Agenda for Action in South...
Multiple Interactions Between Food and
Water Security
Developing an Agenda For Action in
South Asia
Uma Lele
Manmohan Agarwal
Sambuddha Goswami
Definition of Food Security
Food security: All people, at all times, have
physical, social and economic access to
sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets
their dietary needs and food preferences for an
active and healthy life.
(World Food Summit, 1996).
Availability, Access, Stability and Utilization.
Definition of Water Security
The availability of an acceptable quantity and quality
of water for health, livelihoods, ecosystems and
production, coupled with an acceptable level of water-
related risks to people, environments and economies.
----- D. Grey and C. Sadoff. ―Sink or Swim? Water security for growth and development‖. Water Policy
9(2007): 545-57.
Availability, Quality, Health, Livelihoods, Production, Acceptable
Levels of Risks? Environmental Sustainability
Destructive Nature of Water—floods and droughts
Despite Rapid Economic Growth
Largest Number of the world’s
hungry in South Asia
Largest Share of World’s
Undernourishment in 2010, by
Region (Millions)
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,0
350,0
400,0
Source: FAO STATISTICS DIVISION
Number of Undernourished Person (Millions)
Northern Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America and theCaribbean
Eastern Asia
Eastern Asia (withoutChina)
South Asia
South Asia (withoutIndia)
South-Eastern Asia
Western Asia
Rest of East Asia and Pacific
12%
Europe and Central Asia
0%
Latin America and the
Caribbean 3%
Middle East and North Africa
1%
Rest of South Asia 7%
Sub-Saharan Africa 11%
China 44%
India 22%
1981 Population living below $ 1.25 a
day=1899.83 mil
Rest of East Asia and Pacific
10%
Europe and Central Asia
0%
Latin America and the
Caribbean 3%
Middle East and North
Africa 1%
Rest of South Asia 8%
Sub-Saharan Africa 16%
China 38%
India 24%
1990 Population living below $ 1.25 a
day=1818.45 mil
Rest of East Asia and Pacific
8%
Europe and Central Asia 1%
Latin America and the Caribbean
3%
Middle East and North Africa
1% Rest of South Asia 11%
Sub-Saharan Africa 28%
China 15%
India 33%
2005 Population living below $ 1.25 a
day=1373.7mil
Data Source: http://go.worldbank.org/NT2A1XUW
P0 (PovcalNet) GFAR Paper/ GAT Report
Foot Note: The survey years for all
the regions except India are 1981,
1990 and 2005 but for India the
survey years are 1977.5, 1987.5
and 2004.5.
South Asia 44% and SS Africa 28%
of Global Poverty In 2005
China’s Poverty Share was the largest of A Much Larger Poverty Incidence in 1981
Malnourishment worsened by Rising Prices
On Track for Poverty Reduction by 2015 But Off
Track on Food Security?
On Track on Water Access but Way Off Track on Sanitation
Lowest Per Capita Cultivated Land and Declining
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2007 1980-2007
Source: FAOSTAT
Annual Growth Rates of Agricultural Population in Developing Region
(1980-2007)
EAP(DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESONLY--20)
LAC(DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESONLY--29)
MENA(DEVELOPING COUNTRIESONLY--12)
SA(8 COUNTRIES)
SSA(DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESONLY--45)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1990 2000 2007
Source: FAOSTAT
Acute Agricultural Land Pressure
EAP(DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES ONLY--20)
LAC(DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES ONLY--29)
MENA(DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES ONLY--12)
SA(DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES ONLY--8)
SSA(DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES ONLY--45)
EASTERN EUROPE
ROW(DEVELOPEDREGION)
By 2050 Growing Urban and Agricultural Population
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1961 2008 2030 2050
Source: FAOSTAT 2011
Total Urban Population, by Region (Est. & Proj. 2008)
(1000)
LAC (South America+ CentralAmerica+ Caribbean)(Developing Region)
SSA (Middle+ Eastern+Southern+ Western Africa)(Developing Region)
MENA (Middle East Asia+Northern Africa) (DevelopingRegion)
Eastern Asia (ExcludingJapan) and Oceania(Excluding Australia+ NewZealand) (Developing Region)
Central Asia+ Western Asia(Excluding Middle East AsianCountries)
South Asia ( 8 Countriesonly)(Developing Region)
South-Eastern Asia(Developing Region)
Eastern Europe (DevelopedRegion)
Rest of Europe (DevelopedRegion)
Other Developed Region(Australia+ Canada+ Japan+New Zealand+ USA)
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1980 2008 2020
Source: FAOSTAT 2011
Total Agricultural Population, by Region (Est. & Proj. 2008)
(1000)
LAC (South America+Central America+ Caribbean)(Developing Region)
SSA (Middle+ Eastern+Southern+ Western Africa)(Developing Region)
MENA (Middle East Asia+Northern Africa) (DevelopingRegion)
Eastern Asia (ExcludingJapan) and Oceania(Excluding Australia+ NewZealand) (DevelopingRegion)Central Asia+ Western Asia(Excluding Middle East AsianCountries)
South Asia ( 8 Countriesonly)(Developing Region)
South-Eastern Asia(Developing Region)
Eastern Europe (DevelopedRegion)
Rest of Europe (DevelopedRegion)
Other Developed Region(Australia+ Canada+ Japan+New Zealand+ USA)
Situation worse by 2050
Slower TFP Growth in South Asia than South East Asia
NOTE: Source of TFP Indexes figures is Fuglie, K. 2010. Total factor productivity in the global agricultural economy:
Evidence from FAO data, in The Shifting Patterns of Agricultural Production and Productivity Worldwide. Eds. Julian
Alston, Bruce Babcock, Philip Pardey. Ames, Iowa: Midwest Agribusiness Trade and Research Information Center,
pp 63-95.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Ba
se
Ye
ar
19
61
=1
00
* Data for Maldives are not available
Agricultural TFP Indexes (1961-2007)
[South Asia--7 Countries Only] Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Bhutan
India
Nepal
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
North-EastAsia
South-EastAsia
Large Yield Gap Between East Asia and South Asia
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Base Y
ear
1961=
100
Source: FAOSTAT 2011
South Asia and East Asia Region: Yield Growth of Total Cereal (Hg/Ha)
(1961-2009)
East Asia
South Asia
Note: South Asia Region (8 countries only) --- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
East Asia Region (5 countries only)—China, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Japan, Mongolia, Republic of Korea.
0
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
300000000
350000000
400000000
450000000
Source: FAOSTAT 2011
South Asia Region: Principal Cereal Production (Tonnes)
(1961-2009)
Wheat
Rice, paddy
Sorghum
Millet
Maize
Barley
Buckwheat
Rapid Growth of Wheat and Rice Production Slow
Growth in Rainfed Food Crops
SA’s High Vulnerability to Climate Change
Extreme Weather
Already 750 million people affected by a natural disasters
in past two decades.
230,000 deaths
US$45 billion in damages
Melting of Glaciers in the Himalayas
Sea-level Rise Affecting cities with high populations
Higher Temperatures
Variable Rainfall
Overall 2% Loss of GDP of India by some models
Likely Impacts
• Greatly Increased Risk and Uncertainty
• Yield declines—Maize, vs. Rice and Wheat
• Greater Crop and livestock losses
• Change in the World Agricultural Production and Trade
• Biofuels
16
85 to 95 Percent of Water Use in Agriculture?
WATER-FOOD SECURITY-CLIMATE CHANGE
NEXUS—M. Aiti Kadi
WATER
AGRICULTURE CLIMATE
CHANGE
FS IW
RM
M.AITKADI
FAO. 2009. The State of Food Insecurity in the World:
Economic Crises – Impacts and Lessons Learned.
Rome: FAO.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1982-90 1991-2000 2001-05 2007
Source: WDR & WDI
Aid Flows as % of GDP, by Region
1982-2007
EAP
LAC
SA
SSA
Agarwal and Lele, Forthcoming
Declining Net Aid and Falling Shares of
Agriculture in Aid
Focus Workshop on Needed Policies, Investment
Choices and Institutions
Is treatment of climate- water- interactions in national plans adequate? –
E.g. Treatment of Increased Risks and Uncertainty in Research and
Development
Are investment choices right in Policies and Infrastructure development?
E.g. Surface Irrigation vs Ground Water Development vs.
conjunctive use?
Is there a Ground Water Development Policy/Strategy?
Are Energy subsidies/shortages leading to over exploitation of water?
Are Water Related Institutions (both Government and Community Level
from national to local) Effective in addressing issues of efficiency, equity
and sustainability
Large Scope to Increase Inter-Regional
and Global-National Cooperation
• An Effective Web based Communication • GIS Data and Just in Time Distribution • Investment in Knowledge Generation to Promote Multisectoral
planning • Demand Management of Water and Crops • More and Better M and E • Rapid Translation of Lessons into Action