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Transcript of Multi-technology Approach to Vehicle Integration With the Grid Bill Reinert Advanced Technology...
Multi-technology Approachto
Vehicle Integration With the Grid
Multi-technology Approachto
Vehicle Integration With the Grid
Bill Reinert
Advanced Technology Group,
Toyota Motor Sales, USA, INC
October 25, 2010
Bill Reinert
Advanced Technology Group,
Toyota Motor Sales, USA, INC
October 25, 2010
IEEE Communications Society
24th Annual Computer Communications Workshop
Lake Arrowhead, CA
IEEE Communications Society
24th Annual Computer Communications Workshop
Lake Arrowhead, CA
AgendaAgenda
Future Energy
Future Vehicles
Future Society
Today – 2Today – 2 4 Additional by 20504 Additional by 2050
New York, NY18.65M
Los Angeles, CA12.22M
2006 citymayors.com
Atlanta, GA
Miami, FLDallas – Fort Worth, TX
Chicago, IL
On One Hand: Growing Megacities (>10M)On One Hand: Growing Megacities (>10M)
Urban Mass Transport SolutionsUrban Mass Transport Solutions
Personal Rapid TransitLight Rail
Developing Solutions For The Last Mile ProblemDeveloping Solutions For The Last Mile ProblemiReal
Winglet
CityCar
On the Other Hand: Populations are SpreadingOn the Other Hand: Populations are Spreading
2/3 of US jobs, 3/4 economic output, are within 35 mi of 98 largest central business districts (CBD). Increasingly, they are moving to a ring 10-35 mi from CBD. (Brookings Inst.)
Geographic Distribution of Job Share 98 Metro Areas, 1998 - 2006
Most Commutes Are Suburb to SuburbMost Commutes Are Suburb to Suburb
Metropolitan Flow Map (Millions of Commuters)
Source Brookings Inst.
Unique US Urbanization and Transportation TrendsUnique US Urbanization and Transportation Trends
Fifty-year US Travel and Economic Trends
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Per
cen
t (%
) C
han
ge
sin
ce 1
960
GDP: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, chained 2000 dollars; VMT: “Highway Statistics 2007” Table VMT-421, FHWA; Population: US Census;
Gas Price: “Short Term Energy Outlook-October 2009” US Energy Information Administration, annual prices scaled by US CPI in 2008
• US Vehicle Miles Traveled grows with US economy
• Jobs and housing are decentralizing (despite efforts to do the opposite)
• Commute distance increasing (often between suburbs of metro area)
• Highway car remains critically important to US
National Highway Travel Survey 2001, US Bureau of Transportation Statistics Omnibus Household Survey 2003, ABC News/Time
magazine/Washington Post poll 2005
One-way Commute Distance
0
5
10
15
20
1981 1991 2001Pe
rso
n T
rip
Le
ng
th (
mile
s)
Personal Income (2000 $)
Vehicle Miles Traveled
Gas $/Gal CPI Adj.
Population
AgendaAgenda
Future Energy
Future Vehicles
Future Society
Oil Prices Strongly Influenced by Excess CapacityOil Prices Strongly Influenced by Excess Capacity
Source: Neftex (Dr. Peter Wells)
Excess Capacity PriceExcess
Capacity
Platform Platform DesignDesign
Cheap Oil
Expensive Oil
Scarce Oil
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
b/d
Non Opec
Opec
Spare capacity
NGLs
Canadian tar sands
BiofuelsCTL
GTL
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
b/d
Non Opec
Opec
Spare capacity
NGLs
Canadian tar sands
BiofuelsCTL
GTL
Oil Production Forecast Oil Price Forecast
2020
Finding replacements part 1Finding replacements part 1
Heavy crude
lb per MMBTU of fuel
BTU input per BTU of fuel
per MMBTU of
fuel
per gallon of fuel
MMBTUe of fuel per
acre
gallons of fuel per
acre
Fraction of U.S.
croplandAcresb
Transportation energy
displacement
Fuelsource
CO2
emissionsa
Energy ratio
Water use (gallons)Land use
240,000c50%
120,000c25%Tar sands ~180~0.25 ~38~5 ~350,000~3 Mlow
48,000c10%
37,000c50%
19,000c25%In situ
oil shale~240~0.15 ~45~6~65,000~20 Mvery low
7,500c10%
~200 ~0.25~80~10--very lowa few
thousand0-100%
~150~0.1 d~10dn/a--very lowa few
thousand 0-100%CNG
20,60050%
10,30025% ~380~0.5243~500,000~4.4 Mvery low
4,10010%
Coal-to-liquid
1750.088010--very lowa few
thousand 0-100%Conventional
diesel
1750.05455--very lowa few
thousand 0-100%Conventional
gasoline
Source: Kreider and Associates
Finding replacements part 2Finding replacements part 2
lb per MMBTU of fuel
BTU input per BTU of fuel
per MMBTU of
fuel
per gallon of fuel
MMBTUe of fuel per
acre
gallons of fuel per
acre
Fraction of U.S.
croplandAcresb
Transportation energy
displacementFuel
source
CO2
emissionsa
Energy ratio
Water use (gallons)Land use
~1050.6655--very lowtens of
thousands 0-100%MSW-based
ethanol
0.24005080060004 %13 M50%
0.24005080060002%6.5 M25%absorbs CO2
waste
0.2400508006000< 1%2.5 M10%
Algaculture
2400.766900900757390%1.2 B50%
2400.766900900757120%380 M25%
2400.76690090075780%253 M10%Soybean
biodiesel fuel
3300.9219001493951072%228 M50%
3300.9219001463951535%112 M25%
3300.9219001463951515%46 M10%Cellulosic
ethanol
3500.98290022028360103%337 M50%
3500.9823001802837051%160 M25%
3500.9822001702837020%65 M10%Corn-based
ethanol
1750.088010--very lowa few
thousand 0-100%Conventional
diesel
1750.05455--very lowa few
thousand 0-100%Conventional
gasoline
Source: Kreider and Associates
AgendaAgenda
Future Energy
Future Vehicles
Future Society
0 60 12020 100
50
100
40 80 140
Source: 1990 Nationwide personal transportation survey
(%)Cumulative percentage of personal automobile trips
Cumulative percentage oftravel distance energy
Approx. 20%
Average Daily Travel Distance per Vehicle (miles)
U.S. Driving Patterns
PHV Role: EV Mode For Short Distance HV Mode for Longer TripsPHV Role: EV Mode For Short Distance HV Mode for Longer Trips
Approx. 35%
80% Trips
Toyota’s PHV Development
Operation SpecificationsOperation Specifications
Electric Vehicle Charger Assembly
Engine
Electric Motor Electric Vehicle Charger Cable Assembly
HV Battery
AC 110 V to 220 V
Household Outlet
Max. OutputMax. OutputEngineEngine 98 HP (73 kW)98 HP (73 kW)
MG2MG2 80 HP (60 kW)80 HP (60 kW)
In EV Driving In EV Driving ModeMode
Max. SpeedMax. Speed Approx. 62 mph (100 km/h)Approx. 62 mph (100 km/h)
RangeRange Approx. 13 miles (21 km )Approx. 13 miles (21 km )
Power SourcePower Source Household Electrical OutletsHousehold Electrical Outlets
Charging TimeCharging Time Approximately 3 hrs (110 V)Approximately 3 hrs (110 V)
HV Battery CoolingHV Battery Cooling
Additional fansAdditional fans New ductworkNew ductwork 42 Temperature Sensors42 Temperature Sensors
Additional fansAdditional fans New ductworkNew ductwork 42 Temperature Sensors42 Temperature Sensors
Intake Air Ducts
HV Battery Cooling Blowers
HV Battery Temperature Sensors (for HV Battery Pack)
HV Battery Temperature Sensors (for Intake Air Duct)
Sub 2 Main Sub1
DC/DC Converter Cooling Blower
‘10 ‘09 ‘08‘07
Accumulate Field data
Small demo
Test car Field Data
NiMH Li Li (Revised)Battery
Accumulate Field data
Step by Step approach, dependent on Battery Development
Li (Adv)
Understand market potentialUnderstand market potential
Field Test Phase
Mediumvolume
Mass volume
Toyota’s PHV Introduction ScenarioToyota’s PHV Introduction Scenario
(10)(10)
(150)(150)
(~25K)(~25K)
Last Century Urban Mobility ProjectsLast Century Urban Mobility Projects
Toyota e-Com Toyota e-Com shared-use ‘community’ EVsshared-use ‘community’ EVsfor employeesfor employees
Toyota e-Com Toyota e-Com shared-use ‘community’ EVsshared-use ‘community’ EVsfor employeesfor employees
Crayon SystemCrayon Systempay-as-you-go public EV pay-as-you-go public EV rentalsrentals
New Urban Mobility – EV ConceptNew Urban Mobility – EV Concept
Range: 50 miles
Charge Time:
~ 2.5hr/7.5hr (220V/110V)
2012
Transition in Personal MobilityTransition in Personal Mobility
Mobility based on Personal
Automobile
Mobility based on Multiple Modes
• Car Sharing
• Personal Rapid Transit
• Mass Rapid TransitTransition will require:
1. Real-time Communication from Vehiclea) to customer (web portal, Smart Phone)b) to utilities
2. Shift to other modes of personal transportation
3. Partnerships
Technology Enables New PossibilitiesTechnology Enables New Possibilities
Wireless Technology Promotes Wireless Technology Promotes Modal DiversityModal Diversity
ConvergenceConvergence of: of:
• Wireless ComputingWireless Computing• Consumer ElectronicsConsumer Electronics• TransportationTransportation• Energy ManagementEnergy Management• Eco-impact MetricsEco-impact Metrics
Recommend Recommend optimal modeoptimal mode to minimize price minimize price &
travel timetravel time
Eco Technology Conserves Eco Technology Conserves Energy, Reduces COEnergy, Reduces CO22
Locate
Charge Station
Locate Mass Transit
Zipcar Available? Smarter
Charging Stations
Vehicle to
Grid
Smart Grid
PEV ENABLERSPEV ENABLERS
MonitorMonitor
Charge StatusCharge Status
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Fox Business 2008 (70 Campuses); Innovative Mobility Research 2007 (current members), CNW Research 2008 (8 million forecast)
Members (000s)
200k+ 200k+ CurrentCurrent
MembersMembers
U.S. Car Sharing Growth ForecastU.S. Car Sharing Growth Forecast
8 mm 8 mm PotentialPotential
2007 ~2020
Currently at 70+ U.S. college Currently at 70+ U.S. college campusescampuses
Car Sharing is GrowingCar Sharing is Growing
For Plug-in Cars To be Successful Key Infrastructure Issues RemainFor Plug-in Cars To be Successful Key Infrastructure Issues Remain
Vehicle to Grid Communications
Electric Utilities have excess electricity generation capacity during off-peak hours – typically at night
Even during off-peak times, however, there is insufficient electricity distribution capacity for many PEVs to charge at the same time
Communication between vehicle and “grid” is necessary to avoid negative impacts to distribution system (such as local outages)
Level 2 Charging Equipment The majority of customers, particularly larger-capacity BEVs (50+ miles), will
need/want L2 (220V) charging at home and business
The installation of L2 charging equipment is extremely challenging: high cost, lengthy time period, complex interactions among City, Utilities, Contractor, Customer, OEM and Dealer
Resolving L2 installation issues will be critical for EV market adoption
Last Mile Grid System not Developed Old Transformers Cannot Accommodate Multiple EVs Charging in One
Neighborhood
Night Time Charging Limits Charging Hours
Public Charging Not Assured
“What the Market will Bear”“What the Market will Bear”
Prius
PriusPHV
Mass Market
Source: PIN
2008 Midsize Car Prices
0 -- 2500
5000 -- 7500
10,000 -- 12,500
15,000 -- 17,500
20,000 -- 22,500
25,000 -- 27,500
30,000 -- 32,500
35,000 -- 37,500
40,000 -- 42,500
45,000 -- 47,500
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
The U.S. market is primed for light PHVs . . . . .The U.S. market is primed for light PHVs . . . . .
if oil prices play along
Source: Lux Research
The Obama administration has made EVs an agenda item…The Obama administration has made EVs an agenda item…
Congress passed energy Congress passed energy legislation in 2009 to reduce U.S. legislation in 2009 to reduce U.S. emissions below 2005 levels emissions below 2005 levels (Senate has not voted on (Senate has not voted on legislation)legislation) 17% reduction by 202017% reduction by 2020 83% reduction by 205083% reduction by 2050
American Recovery and American Recovery and Reinvestment Act included $2.4 Reinvestment Act included $2.4 billion in funding for battery billion in funding for battery development and electric vehicle development and electric vehicle componentcomponent
Congress passed energy Congress passed energy legislation in 2009 to reduce U.S. legislation in 2009 to reduce U.S. emissions below 2005 levels emissions below 2005 levels (Senate has not voted on (Senate has not voted on legislation)legislation) 17% reduction by 202017% reduction by 2020 83% reduction by 205083% reduction by 2050
American Recovery and American Recovery and Reinvestment Act included $2.4 Reinvestment Act included $2.4 billion in funding for battery billion in funding for battery development and electric vehicle development and electric vehicle componentcomponent
Energy Plan from Campaign - Key Points Progress vs. Campaign Promises
Put 1 million plug-in hybrid Put 1 million plug-in hybrid and/or electric vehicles on the and/or electric vehicles on the road by 2015road by 2015
Ensure 10% of energy comes Ensure 10% of energy comes from renewable sources by 2012 from renewable sources by 2012 and 25% by 2025and 25% by 2025
Implement economy-wide cap-Implement economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80% greenhouse gas emissions 80% from 1990 levels by 2050from 1990 levels by 2050
…backed by significant financial commitments…backed by significant financial commitments
25,000
4650
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
1,6361,636
TeslTeslaa
NissaNissan NAn NA
AVMIP AVMIP FundiFundi
ngng
FiskFiskerer
ForFordd
16,54516,545
2424529529
TennecTennecoo
Not Not DistribuDistribu
tedted
5,8015,801
Advanced Tech Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program
Measured in USD Millions
2,410
1,247
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
OtOtherher
8181
ToTotaltal
Not Not DistriDistributedbuted
3535
Adv Adv Veh Veh & &
Trans Trans ElectElect
rr
347347
Elec Elec Drive Drive
CompoComponentnent
465465
Adv Adv Batt Batt Supp Supp MfgMfg
235235
Cell, Cell, Batt, Batt, and and Mtls Mtls MfgMfg
American Reinvestment & Recovery Act AwardsMeasured in USD Millions
Source: U.S. Department of Energy
ATVM provides loans for the cost of re-equipping, expanding, or establishing
manufacturing facilities in the United States to produce advanced technology vehicles or
qualified components, and for associated engineering integration costs
ARRA provides funding for U.S.-based manufacturers to:
• Produce batteries and components• Produce electric drive components
such as electric motors and power electronics
However, past presidential agenda items such as solar power have struggled once funding was cut
However, past presidential agenda items such as solar power have struggled once funding was cut
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
USD USD MillionsMillions
Estimated Department of Energy Solar FundingMeasured in 2007 Dollars
Source: Sissine, “Federal Spending for Solar Energy”, Congressional Research Service July 11, 2008; EIA “Solar Thermal Collector Shipments by Type, Price, and Trade 1974 - 2007
ConcentrationConcentrationPhotovoltaicPhotovoltaic
Shipments of Solar Thermal CollectorsMeasured in Millions of Square Feet
88
22
2020
1616
44
1818
1414
66
00199199
00
6.26.2
3.63.6
2.52.5
19819888
4.14.1
3.33.3
0.70.7
19819866
4.94.9
3.83.8
1.11.1
19819844
16.416.4
4.54.5
11.911.9
19819822
18.618.6
7.57.5
11.111.1
19819800
19.419.4
12.212.2
7.27.2
19719788
10.910.9
Square FeetSquare Feet
(Millions)(Millions)
5.05.0
19719766
5.85.8
3.93.9
1.91.9
5.95.91.31.3
1.11.10.10.1
1212
1010
19719744
Low-TempLow-TempMedium-TempMedium-Temp1977 - 1979: President Carter makes multiplespeeches touting solar power and installspanels on roof of White House
President Reagan cuts funding for solar development
20%
40%
5%10%
20%
30%25%
50% 50%
30%
20%
95%90%
72%
35%
20%
10%
35%
10%2%1%
10%5%3%
15%
97%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040-2050
PHEV BEV/ FCV Conv HEV Conv Gas
Strong Regulatory Push: Reduce CO2Strong Regulatory Push: Reduce CO2
CARB expects BEV/FCV sales volume to surpass conventional gas by 2035 and reach 30% of mix by 2040
However, the above vision does not achieve the 80% reduction in GHG emissions from 1990 levels by 2050; ZEVs will need to reach 100% of vehicle sales by 2040, to meet the 80% goal
CARB 2050 Vision
Sources: California Air Resources Board; “[ZEV] White Paper”
CARB Assumptions: Retail Price Increase Versus 2035 Hybrid
2035 Plug-in Hybrid (30 mile AER) $3,400
2035 Battery Electric (100 mile range) $5,500
2035 Fuel Cell $2,800
EV Costs vs CO2 ReductionEV Costs vs CO2 Reduction
Duke University, Plug-in and regular hybrids: A national and regional comparison of costs and CO2 emissions.
Outside Voices: Evaluation of PHVs, Duke UniversityOutside Voices: Evaluation of PHVs, Duke University
Comparison of Vehicle Powertrain TechnologiesComparison of Vehicle Powertrain Technologies
Lifetime emissionsLifetime
energy use
CO2 equiv SOx NOx Hg
lb lb lb lb MMBTU
Gasoline (30mpg Sentra) 140,000 150 160 0.00084 721
EV-40 (Current US Grid) 110,000 430 210 0.00190 339
PHEV-20 (Reduced Volt) 100,000 270 160 0.00120 409
HEV (2010 Prius) 97,000 140 120 0.00071 472
Fuel Cell (70mi/kg) 76,000 4,100 53 0.00047 626
Comparison of Vehicle Powertrain TechnologiesComparison of Vehicle Powertrain Technologies
Lifetime energy use breakdown
FC HEV PHEV-20 EV-40 Gas
Material production 17% 17% 20% 25% 11%
Vehicle assembly 3% 3% 4% 5% 2%
Fuel production / transport 10% 10% 9% 5% 12%
Vehicle operation 63% 63% 59% 54% 71%
Vehicle maintenance 3% 3% 3% 4% 2%
Vehicle disposal 4% 4% 5% 7% 3%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Electricity HydrogenGasoline, Diesel, Biofuel, etc
Public transportPublic transportPrivate usePrivate use
i-seriesi-series
BicycleBicycleElectric
welfare vehicle
Med/Large vehiclesMed/Large vehicles
ScooterScooter
Light vehicleLight vehicle
MicrobusMicrobus
City busCity bus
Delivery truckDelivery truck
Delivery Delivery vehicle vehicle
WingletWingletPMRPMR
High-Speed,High-Speed,Long-Distance DrivingLong-Distance Driving
Lower-Speed,Lower-Speed,Short-Distance DrivingShort-Distance Driving
Highway drivingHighway drivingbetween citiesbetween cities
Low-Speed,Low-Speed,Inter-City DrivingInter-City Driving
Med-to-High Speed,Med-to-High Speed,Med-Distance DrivingMed-Distance Driving
Large truckLarge truckVehicle SizeVehicle Size
FCV FCV SectorSectorFCV FCV
SectorSector
EV EV sectorsector
EV EV sectorsector
Driving distance
ICE HV & PHV SectorICE HV &
PHV Sector
EV commuterEV commuter
Mobility-basedMobility-based Vehicle-basedVehicle-based
PHEVPHEV
HVHV
Roles of EV/PHEV/FCVRoles of EV/PHEV/FCV
Apply existing technologies in new waysApply existing technologies in new ways
Most of the technologies mentioned already exist, Most of the technologies mentioned already exist, just not yet in the mobility spacejust not yet in the mobility space
For now smaller battery approaches are more For now smaller battery approaches are more cost effectivecost effective
Implies multiple charge periods throughout the dayImplies multiple charge periods throughout the day
At the end of the day, customer is kingAt the end of the day, customer is king
All solutions must solve customers problems without All solutions must solve customers problems without creating new onescreating new ones
Charging solutions to manage the grid may be at Charging solutions to manage the grid may be at odds with customer expectations.odds with customer expectations.
SummarySummary