Multi-scale predictions of right whale (Eubalaena japonica) habitat in the North Pacific and Bering...
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Transcript of Multi-scale predictions of right whale (Eubalaena japonica) habitat in the North Pacific and Bering...
Multi-scale predictions of right whale (Eubalaena japonica) habitat
in the North Pacific and Bering Sea
Edward Gregr, SciTech Consulting, Vancouver BC
John Ford, DFO, Nanaimo, BC
Randall Reeves, Okapi Wildlife Associates, St. Anne, PQ
Robert Brownell Jr., SWFSC, Monterey, CA
Phil Clapham, AFSC, Seattle WA
Anchorage, January 24, 2007
Objectives
• Analysis of historic whaling records to identify potential hotspots for right whales in NP/BS
• Describe oceanographic processes that effect distribution and abundance of right whale prey
• Predict distribution of right whale foraging habitat
Objectives
• Analysis of historic whaling records to identify potential hotspots for right whales in NP/BS
• Describe oceanographic processes that effect distribution and abundance of right whale prey
• Predict distribution of right whale foraging habitat
Historic whaling records
Townsend (1935) data
N = 7606
Data courtesy Wildlife Conservation Society
Independent variables?
• RW data are 150 years old … predictors need to have remained relatively constant
• Bathymetry and derivatives• Large scale ocean features (Alaskan gyre,
transition zone, Bering Sea fronts)• Coarse scale study:
– 50 x 50 km– seasonal
Large scale ocean features
i.e., wind speed
Yi Chao, unpublished data
50 x 50 km ROMS circulation model• 1950 to 2004• Seasonal climatologies = long term averages
Whaling record analysis
• Presence-only correlation analysis
• Predictions of suitable habitat
• Depends critically on selection of independent variables
• The first scale in the multi-scale analysis
Objectives
• Analysis of historic whaling records to identify potential hotspots for right whales in NP/BS
• Describe oceanographic processes that effect distribution and abundance of right whale prey
• Predict distribution of right whale foraging habitat
Right whale prey
• Skim feeding copepod specialist, though also feeds at bottom boundary layer
• NA and NP right whale very similar animals, but do they have similar feeding habits?
Mackas and Coyle, 2005
Shelf vs. open ocean
Zooplankton community composition and species differences in size may require
different foraging strategies.
Shelf vs. open ocean
Mackas and Coyle, 2005
Processes – an example
Crawford et al. 2005
• Meso-scale eddies are now understood to be an important component of oceanic production
Mean [Chl-a] within eddy waters (blue) compared to non-eddy waters (green)
Processes - eddies
Crawford et al. 2005
Objectives
• Analysis of historic whaling records to identify potential hotspots for right whales in NP/BS
• Describe oceanographic processes that effect distribution and abundance of right whale prey
• Predict distribution of right whale foraging habitat
Multi-scale analysis
1st scale:- NP; 50 km; seasonal- Yankee whaling data- bathymetry; long-term
oceanography
2nd scale:- BS/NEP; 10 km; monthly- 20th century sightings- bathymetry; monthly
oceanography
3rd scale:- regional; 1 km; weekly- 21st century zooplankton- RS data
Deliverables
• Identify and describe areas of high historic abundance (i.e., hotspots)
• Extensive GIS-compatible bio-physical data
• Mechanistic description of concentration and retention processes in the North Pacific and Bering Sea
• Predictions of contemporary foraging habitat for right whales
Proposed Critical Habitat forNorth Pacific right whales
Acknowledgements
• Funded by the North Pacific Research Board• Phil Clapham and Bob Brownell for the groundwork• Dave Mackas, Lisa Eisner, and Jeff Napp for support
with plankton component• Yi Chao, Al Hermann, Georgina Gibson for support
with physical oceanography
Photo: Marilyn Marx
Questions, comments:[email protected]
BASIS Stations
Courtesy Lisa Eisner, NMFS
Sampled 2000 - 2006
IOS/OSAP Plankton data
calanoid copepodsabundance/m3