Multi-Index Drought Monitoring: A Global Drought...

Multi-Index Drought Monitoring:

A Global Drought GeoServer

Amir AghaKouchak, Zengchao Hao, and

Navid Nakhjiri

University of California, Irvine

Multi-Index Drought Monitoring

Different drought indices based on different climate variables (e.g.,

Precipitation, soil moisture):

• Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

• Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI)

• Standardized runoff Index (SRI)

• Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

SPI 2012-1

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SSI 2012-1

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

PSI 2012-1

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SPI 2012-2

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SSI 2012-2

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

PSI 2012-2

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SPI 2012-3

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SSI 2012-3

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

PSI 2012-3

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SPI 2012-4

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SSI 2012-4

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

PSI 2012-4

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

Multi-Index Drought Monitoring SPI 2007-1

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SSI 2007-1

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

MSDI 2007-1

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SPI 2007-2

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SSI 2007-2

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

MSDI 2007-2

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SPI 2007-3

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SSI 2007-3

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

MSDI 2007-3

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SPI 2007-4

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SSI 2007-4

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

MSDI 2007-4

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45


3-, 6- and 12-month drought conditions based on Standardized Precipitation

Index (SPI) and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) for Climate Division 3 in

California.


A Multi-Index Approach Using a Joint Distribution Function

),( yYxXPp

)(),( YGXFCp

C is the copula and F(X) and G(Y) are the marginal cumulative distribution

functions of precipitation (X) and soil moisture (Y), respectively

Multi-Index Standardized Drought Index (MSDI)

pMSDI 1

where ɸ is the standard normal distribution function.


Deriving the Joint Distribution of Precipitation and Soil Moisture

)(),( YGXFCp

Non-Parametric Models Yue et al., 1999

where n is the length of the observations; and mk is the number of the pair (xi, yi) for xi ≤ xk and yi ≤ yk

112.044.0),(

nmyxP kkk


3-month SPI, SSI, MSDI

for Climate Division 3 in

California.

Monthly precipitation

and soil moisture from

1/1932 to 12/2010

Precipitation : NCDC

Soil Moisture: CPC

1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Year

3--Month

SPI SSI JDI

1990 1992

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

1988

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

1976

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

MSDI


3-month SPI, SSI, MSDI

for Climate Division 5 in

California.

Monthly precipitation

and soil moisture from

1/1932 to 12/2010

Precipitation : NCDC

Soil Moisture: CPC

1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Year

3--Month

SPI SSI JDI

1976 1978

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

1988 1990 1992

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

MSDI


SPI 2007-1

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SSI 2007-1

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

MSDI 2007-1

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SPI 2007-2

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SSI 2007-2

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

MSDI 2007-2

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SPI 2007-3

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SSI 2007-3

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

MSDI 2007-3

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SPI 2007-4

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

SSI 2007-4

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

MSDI 2007-4

-120 -100 -80

30

35

40

45

1-Month SPI and SSI Derived

Using NASA MERRA-LAND

Precipitation and soil moisture

Data.


1-Month SPI and SSI Derived

Using NASA MERRA-LAND

Precipitation and soil moisture

Data.

SPI 2012-1

a30354045

SSI 2012-1 MSDI 2012-1

SPI 2012-2

b30354045

SSI 2012-2 MSDI 2012-2

SPI 2012-3

c30354045

SSI 2012-3 MSDI 2012-3

SPI 2012-4

d

-120 -100 -80

30354045

SSI 2012-4

-120 -100 -80

MSDI 2012-4

-120 -100 -80

0

2

4

SPI 2012-1

a30354045

SSI 2012-1 MSDI 2012-1

SPI 2012-2

b30354045

SSI 2012-2 MSDI 2012-2

SPI 2012-3

c30354045

SSI 2012-3 MSDI 2012-3

SPI 2012-4

d

-120 -100 -80

30354045

SSI 2012-4

-120 -100 -80

MSDI 2012-4

-120 -100 -80

0

2

4


Probability of detection (POD) of drought using 1-month SPI, SSI and MSDI

Month

PO

D

SPI 2012-1

a30354045

SSI 2012-1 MSDI 2012-1

SPI 2012-2

b30354045

SSI 2012-2 MSDI 2012-2

SPI 2012-3

c30354045

SSI 2012-3 MSDI 2012-3

SPI 2012-4

d

-120 -100 -80

30354045

SSI 2012-4

-120 -100 -80

MSDI 2012-4

-120 -100 -80

0

2

4

SPI 2012-1

a30354045

SSI 2012-1 MSDI 2012-1

SPI 2012-2

b30354045

SSI 2012-2 MSDI 2012-2

SPI 2012-3

c30354045

SSI 2012-3 MSDI 2012-3

SPI 2012-4

d

-120 -100 -80

30354045

SSI 2012-4

-120 -100 -80

MSDI 2012-4

-120 -100 -80

0

2

4

SPI 2012-1

a30354045

SSI 2012-1 MSDI 2012-1

SPI 2012-2

b30354045

SSI 2012-2 MSDI 2012-2

SPI 2012-3

c30354045

SSI 2012-3 MSDI 2012-3

SPI 2012-4

d

-120 -100 -80

30354045

SSI 2012-4

-120 -100 -80

MSDI 2012-4

-120 -100 -80

0

2

4

SPI 2012-04 SSI 2012-04 MSDI 2012-04

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

a

SPI SSI MSDI

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Month

b

SPI SSI MSDI



Month

PO

D

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

a

SPI SSI MSDI

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Month

b

SPI SSI MSDI


Month

PO

D

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

a

SPI SSI MSDI

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Month

b

SPI SSI MSDI


http://drought.eng.uci.edu/index.html


Soil Moisture

Precipitation

Soil Moisture & Precipitation


http://drought.eng.uci.edu/index.html

3-, 6

-Mon

th Forecast

~ 30 Years Satellite-Based Rainfall Data

1979 NOW

9-18

Mon

ths Re

al-Tim

e


http://amir.eng.uci.edu/publications/12_RG_Drought_CDR_ERL.pdf

Short-term forecasts of

Drought Likelihood

based on CFSv2

simulations

Thank You for

Your Attention

Multi-Index Drought Monitoring: A Global Drought...

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