IMPORTANCE OF INLAND WATERS, LAKES AND MARINE FISH SPECIES AND THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THESE. ALSO, THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISHING AND THE HOW IT ALL AFFECTS THE LOCAL COMMUNITIESMuhammad Moazzam Khan

PRESENTATION CONTENTS Importance of:

Inland waters and lakes Marine fish species

Impact of climate change on these. Impact of climate change:

on fishing and how it all affects the local communities

FISHERIES RESOURCES

Inland Fisheries Marine Fisheries Aquaculture

STREAM/RIVERS

LARGE RIVERS

R I VE R

INDUS

RESERVOIRS

DAMS

NATURAL LAKES

AQUACULTURE

INLAND RESOURCESInland (million hectare)

Rivers 3.19 Dams/Canals 0.15 Lakes 3.14 Indus Delta 0.38 Flood area 1.00 Farms 0.06 Total 7.92

FRESHWATER FISHERIES Dominated by Cyprinids

Indian major carps Exotic carps

Other species include catfish, snakeheads, spiny eels,

Sindh has most surface water bodies including natural lakes, dhands, seepage areas, therefore, has high production.

FRESHWATER FISH: LOCAL SPECIES

Rohu: Labeo rohita

Thaila: Catla catla

Morakhi: Cirrihinus mrigala

FRESHWATER FISH: LOCAL SPECIES

Catfish: Mystus seenghala

Wallago: Wallago attu

Catfish: Rita macracanthus

Snakehead: Channa marulius

Spiny eel: Mastacembelus armatusFeatherback: Chitala chitala

FRESHWATER FISH: EXOTIC SPECIES

Grass carp: Ctenopharyngodon idella

Silver carp: Hypophthalmichthys molitrix

Common carp: Cyprinus carpio

Nile tilapia: Oreochromis niloticus

FISH PRODUCTION (INLAND)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

SINDH PUNJAB Khyber Pakhtoon Khwa, Gilgit Baltistan DAMS

FISH PRODUCTION (INLAND)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Khyber Pakhtoon Khwa, Gilgit Baltistan DAMS

DELTA/ESTUARY

ARABIAN SEA

PAKISTAN’S COAST LINE

EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE

EEZ – 200 NM240,000 SQ KM

EXTENDED EEZTOTAL >300,000 SQ KM

21

MARINE FISHERIES Dominated by pelagic (surface dwelling) and demersal

(bottom dwelling) and shellfishes Demersal are most common food fishes Pelagic includes large and small pelagic Large pelagic

Tuna, mackerel, billfish Small pelagics

Sardinellas, anchovies, scads Shellfish includes shrimp, crabs, lobsters, squids, cuttlefish,

jellyfish

MARINE FISHING ZONES Zone I - 0 -12 n. miles-Provincial

jurisdiction (Reserved for traditional small scale fishermen of Sindh and Balochistan Province)

Zone-II (Buffer Zone) 12-20 n. miles Federal Jurisdiction No restriction on fishing by traditional small scale fishermen

Zone III - 20- 200 n.miles Federal Jurisdiction (exploited by deep sea fishing vessels, stern trawlers, and tuna long liners) No restriction on fishing by traditional small scale fishermen

COMMERCIALLY IMPORTANT MARINE FISHES OF PAKISTAN

COMMERCIALLY IMPORTANT SHELLFISHES OF PAKISTAN

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

MARINE INLAND TOTAL

FISH PRODUCTION OF PAKISTAN

MARINE FISH PRODUCTION

1947194

9195

1195

3195

5195

7195

9196

1196

3196

5196

7196

9197

1197

3197

5197

7197

9198

1198

3198

5198

7198

9199

1199

3199

5199

7199

9200

1200

3200

5200

7200

9201

10

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

SINDH BALOCHISTAN E.E.Z

EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISH

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISH

When the surrounding water warms up, metabolism speeds up

Digest food more rapidly, Grow more quickly Have more energy to reproduce. But fish need more food and more oxygen

to support this higher metabolism. Warmer fish tend to mature more quickly, This speedy lifestyle is often a smaller

body size and a smaller brood.

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HABITATS OF FISH

Expansion and/or contraction of suitable habitats

Shifts in the distribution of fish stocks through

Changes in migratory circuits that connect life stages

Affecting successful completion of the life cycle

Affecting successful recruitment

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISHERIES

Climate is now recognized as a major factor affecting the productivity of key species in world fisheries.

Following changes in commercially and ecologically important marine fish species at organismal-level & population-level

Growth reproductive success Mortality Habitat

IMPACTS OF DECLINE OF FISH STOCKS ON OTHER IMPORTANT MATTERS

Declines in fisheries will have massive impacts on Commercial fishing, Tourism Biodiversity.

POSSIBLE ADAPTATIONS OF FISH DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE WARMING The extent of climate-driven changes will be

mediated by the capacity for individual species (or populations) to adapt to changes in important abiotic and biotic factors.

Adaptations could include changes in the important life history events

(e.g., migration, spawning) and/or

physiological changes (e.g., thermal reaction norms of key traits such as growth, increased tolerance to lowered pH/ocean acidification).

OTHER IMPACTS As global warming continues, the pressure on

fish populations will increase due to following Overfishing Pollution habitat loss

Although slightly warmer water could be tolerated by man, its effect on fish and aquatic ecosystems, and ultimately on the global food supply and economic stability, could be severe.

CLIMATE CHANGE PUTS FISH ON THE RUN Many fish that cannot find a local

solution are already heading towards the poles as the water becomes too warm.

Naturally, when fish find themselves in hot water, they head out in search of cooler locales.

As global temperatures rise, some fish may be able to shift locally – by moving deeper or by heading upriver towards cool headwaters.

PROBLEMS FACED BY FISH DUE TO MIGRATION TO WARM WATERS

Fish that can tolerate heat will become much more common.

The fish that stay around will also have to deal with new species that enter in to their niche

HOW WILL FISHERIES CHANGE?

Fisheries resources may become less predictable as extreme weather hits more often.

Events like the El Niño might cause a greater impact on warm water fisheries and reef fisheries.

Many fisheries resources will permanently shift location as water temperatures rise.

Large, commercial fleets that can follow the fisheries may not be as strongly affected as local, small-scale fishermen,

Small scale fishermen will have to adapt their gear and methods, travel further, and fish longer to continue providing enough food for their families and local markets.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND COASTAL COMMUNITIES

The ozone layer, which protects us

from harmful

radiation, is part of the stratospher

e.

The Layers of the Atmosphere

Diagrams adapted from: http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/science/faq/page5.html

Natural greenhouse effect Enhanced greenhouse effect

The Greenhouse Effect

CLIMATE CHANGE: CAUSESARTH’S CLIMATE TO CHANGE?• Changes in the atmosphere• Natural processes

– Volcanoes – Tectonic plate movement– Changes in the sun

• Human activities – any activity that releases “greenhouse gases” into the atmosphere

Global Climate Change

44

Combined annual land-surface air and sea surface temperature anomalies (C°) 1861 to 2000 relative to 1961 and 1990. Two standard error uncertainties are shown as bars on the annual number.

Global Mean Temperature(140 year record)

45

1,000 Year Temperature and Instrumental Data

Year

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1 .0

Nor

ther

n H

emis

pher

e an

omal

y (°

C)Re

lati

ve t

o 19

61 t

o 19

90 m

ean

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

CLIMATE CHANGE• Global warming refers to the gradual increase of the

Earth’s temperature because of energy trapped by the Earth’s atmosphere

• The retention of the heat by the atmosphere is called the greenhouse effect.

• Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are increasing• GHGs affect the climate system• World average temperature has risen relatively fast

over the past 30 years• Sea-level rise is gradually accelerating• Many temperature-sensitive systems/processes have

changed over the past two decades

HOW THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT WORKS• Heat, in the form of short wave infrared

radiation is received by the Earth from the sun

• This heat is reflected back out into space in the form of long-wave infrared radiation.

• As long as this energy input-output exchange is in equilibrium, we stay the same temperature (globally)

• If something alters it, we either heat up or cool down.

PERMANENT GASES Permanent gases in the atmosphere by percent are:

Nitrogen 78.1% Oxygen 20.9% (Note that these two permanent gases together comprise

99% of the atmosphere) Other permanent gases:

Argon 0.9% Neon 0.002% Helium 0.0005% Krypton 0.0001% Hydrogen 0.00005%

VARIABLE GASES IN THE ATMOSPHERE

Variable gases in the atmosphere and typical percentage values are: Water vapor 0 to 4% Carbon Dioxide 0.035% Methane 0.0002% Ozone 0.000004% CFC’s (not naturally occurring)

GREENHOUSE GASES Several gases act as heat sinks in the

atmosphere CO2 CFCs Methane Water vapor

WHAT ARE GREENHOUSE GASES?

Gases that cause the “greenhouse effect!”

Global Climate ChangeDavid D. Houghton

52

Indicators of the Human Influence on the

Atmosphere During the Industrial Era

(a) Global atmospheric concentrations of three well mixed greenhouse gases

(b) Sulphate aerosols deposited in Greenland ice

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous oxideSulphur

RELATIVE CONCERNS OVER GREENHOUSE GASES

CO2 is the largest concern, being the largest constituent of the atmosphere

Methane holds more heat, but because it is chemically more active, its atmospheric duration is about 10 years

CFC’s hold much more heat, and last a very long time, but still are a smaller portion Also being reduced due to Montreal

protocol

ATMOSPHERIC CO2

Atmospheric CO2 is believed to have been about 280 ppm (parts per million) in the pre-industrial age.

This figure is based on estimates of carbon sinks and flux, along with the geological record. (ice core samples, bubbles in amber, etc)

CO2

The most plentiful greenhouse gas Results from

Combustion of fossil fuels Gas best fuel Oil medium Coal worst

Based on ratio of carbon to hydrogen in the molecules

Burning of vegetation/deforestation Reduced uptake in plants/deforestation

MAUNA LOA CO2 OBSERVATIONS The data on atmospheric CO2 collected

by Keeling at the Mauna Loa observatory is said to be the most widely seen data set in the world.

It was started in 1955 CO2 was at 313ppm then It is at 375ppm now (2002), an increase of

16.5% in 47 years

THE KEELING CO2 DATA

METHANE Sources

Coal mining Oil production Organic decomposition Animal digestion

Resident in atmosphere about 10 years

CFCS Nasty little gases – only anthropogenic

CFCs do not occur in nature – the Fluorine bond is to strong to break naturally.

CFCs come from Refrigerants Styrofoam, foaming agents Cleaning electronics Spray propellants

WATER VAPOR

Hug

o Ah

leni

us, U

NEP

/GRI

D-A

rend

al

ICE CAPAT

ARCTIC CIRCLE

2000

1970

ICE ON KILIMANJARO

Global average temperature

Global average sea level

Northern hemispheresnow cover

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Temperature rise Precipitation Soil Moisture Changing Habitats Sea Level Rise

TEMPERATURE RISE Estimates are in the 1.5° to 4.5° C Every degree C is equal to about 100 miles of

latitude. Rising temperature means rising AC usage,

which means rising CO2 consumption, accelerating greenhouse effect

CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION Changing Patterns of rainfall/drought Extreme Precipitation events

Droughts Storms - flooding Snowfall Hurricanes

In a warmer world, more hurricanes, longer season, and more powerful storms

SOIL MOISTURE Increased temperature means a

decreased spoil moisture unless precipitation increases

CHANGING HABITATS Changes in habitat Migration patterns Ecosystem changes

Changes in species populations can ripple through an ecosystem.

SEA LEVEL RISE Thermal expansion of water Arctic Ice pack Glaciers Western Antarctic

THERMAL EXPANSION OF WATER Water molecules get larger as they get

warmer. Sea level rises about 1cm per .1° C Hence sea level has risen about 10cm

since 1900, along with a global mean sea level temp rise of about 1°

Thus sea level may rise by 15-45cm due to thermal expansion

GLACIERS Almost all glaciers have receded in last

century Possible that increased precipitation

may cause increased glaciations on South poleGlacial Retreat: Thinning of

the tongue during the 1990s accelerated and as of 2001 a lake started to form in front of it (right image). The ice became buoyant and rapid break-up of the snout is now underway

COMPUTER MODELS

WHY SHOULD WE CARE?

Sea-level rise projections : a few inches to a few feet

•2 ft: U.S. would lose 10,000 square miles•3 ft: Would inundate Miami•Affects erosion, loss of wetlands, freshwater supplies•Half of the world’s population lives along coasts

SEA-LEVEL RISE OVER COMING CENTURIES FOLLOWING 70 YEARS OF EXCESS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

200 400 600 800 Time from start (years)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Sea-

leve

l ris

e (m

) Total sea level rise

Ocean Expansion

Ice-melt

Greenhouse gas emissions (“super-Kyoto” action)

IPCC 2001

Sea-Level Rise, over the coming millennium

Peaking in 2050

SEA LEVEL RISE RISKS TO SMALL ISLAND-STATES

Coastal flooding Amplified storm surges Damaged coastal infrastructure (roads, etc.) Salination of island fresh-water (esp.

subterranean cells) Impaired crop production Population displacement: diverse health

risks (nutrition, infection, mental health)

MEAN SEA LEVEL RISE AT ARABIAN SEA

TIDAL LINK DRAIN

SHAH SAMANDO CREEK

JATI DRAIN

CHOLARI DHAND

SANHRO DHAND

WATER BODYWATER BODY

HIGH WATER LINE

VEGETATION

Saltwater intrusion in the estuaries

    Area Affected by Sea IntrusionDISTRICT

/AREA (ha)

TALUKA (ha) Fully Eroded

Partially Eroded

Total Not Eroded

Thatta 1,324,606

348,093

186,400 534,493 790,113

Shah Bundar 297,707 205,940 35,055 240,995 56,712

Ghora Bari 94,686 2,986 9,867 12,853 81,833

Kharo Chan 192,902 39,147 8,944 48,091 144,811

Mirpur Sakro 300,629 4,503 20,057 24,560 276,069

Jati 357,215 49,411 112,069 161,480 195,735

Keti Bundar 81,467 46,106 408 46,514 34,953

Badin 323,749 14,595 17,978 32,573 291,176Golarchi 179,798 2,764 9,736 12,500 167,298

Badin 143,951 11,831 8,242 20,073 123,878

Total 1,648,355

392,688

204,378 597,066 1,051,289

JHABO WETLAND KARO-GHANGRO DRAIN

Nematalosa nasusSardinella longicepsSardinella sindensisStrongylura strongyluraCociella crocodilaTerapon jarbuaSillago sihamaLeiognathus splendensPomadasys commersonni Pomadasys maculatesAcanthopagrus latusLiza subviridisLiza vaigiensis

Labeo bogaMystus gulioGlossogobius giurisChanna punctataOreochromis mossambica

10 km

Keti Bandar

Shah Bandar

Keti Bandar, looking towards the Arabian Sea.

SEA LEVEL RISE

Sea level Rise-Damb

Tippun; Hajamro creek Hardly a few centimeter above high

water mark

LOSS OF HUMAN LIFE & PROPERTY

Migration; Mero Dablo Village

Homeless; Phirth village

THANKS