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Work the Switches before Federal Election

Germany’s political landscape is fragmenting

An era of relative stability in Germany’s political landscape is coming to an end. For some

time, traditional party ties have been weakening, especially in Germany’s eastern states –

but increasingly also in the old west. The right-wing populist party AfD (Alternative for

Germany) is benefitting most from this – especially on the back of the refugee crisis. The

ongoing feud between the CDU and its Bavarian sister party CSU over Angela Merkel’s

liberal refugee policy has further played into the AfD’s hands. Weaker party ties have also

led the Greens to unforeseen heights (30.3 percent) in the traditionally CDU-dominated

state of Baden-Württemberg. Here, as well as in Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony-Anhalt,

the changed electoral landscapes have forced political parties to form unprecedented, or

highly unusual, coalitions.

Political certainties are also evaporating at the federal level: Recent polls show that the

federal election in autumn 2017 will see major changes in the Bundestag. Having dropped

out four years ago, the liberal FDP is about to re-enter the federal parliament, while the

AfD is likely to leap above the five-percent threshold for the first time. Meanwhile, the two

larger parties -- CDU/CSU and SPD -- will see losses, so that traditional coalitions

(CDU/CSU and FDP or SPD and Greens) will fall short of majorities of their own. A repeat

of the current grand coalition also seems unlikely: The SPD in particular will be in no

mood for another coalition with the CDU and CSU. Weak as never before, the social

democrats have little appetite to see their support dwindle even further. But conservatives

are also weary of another grand coalition. Recent events in Austria, where a string of grand

coalitions have left the larger parties permanently weakened, serve as a potent warning.

Instead, the first ever black-green coalition at federal level, made up of CDU, CSU and the

Greens, is looming large on the horizon. Leading politicians on both sides have been busy

preparing for it – not only in Baden-Württemberg where the first green-black coalition just

got underway. The electorate seem to be ready to test unchartered black-green waters as

well: According to a recent survey, 48 percent of Germans would support the alliance at

federal level, with only 39 percent opting for other potential coalitions.

Meanwhile, it is highly likely that Angela Merkel will lead the CDU into the election as the

party’s front-runner again. The same is true for the CSU’s veteran-leader Horst Seehofer

and the FDP’s young party chairman Christian Lindner, who has managed to stabilize the

party following its existential crisis in 2013. However, things are much less clear with

regard to the SPD, Greens and AfD. Within the SPD, nobody seems keen to take on Angela

Merkel. Sigmar Gabriel, party leader and deputy chancellor, would be the obvious

candidate, but is unpopular among the electorate and not much liked in his own party. A

number of alternative candidates such as Olaf Scholz, Mayor of Hamburg, have already

ruled themselves out. The Greens will ballot party members to nominate their two front-

runners early next year. Cem Özdemir, one of the two party leaders, is among the hopefuls,

but Green party ballots tend to be unpredictable. Finally, the AfD could be in for a messy

and protracted nomination process, with party leader Frauke Petry increasingly unpopular

and warring factions continuing to fight over the direction of the party.

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Window of opportunity is closing

Only one year left until political machinery will start stuttering

In roughly a year’s time, the entire political machinery will switch into campaign mode,

and the legislative process will de facto come to a rest. Therefore, anyone wishing the

government to pay attention to a certain issue will need to act now. In particular, this

applies to those issues facing a tough stand should the Greens enter government next

year, such as consumer protection, energy and environmental issues.

Two phases determine next government’s political program

The party manifestos for the election campaigns are being laid in the course of the next

twelve months. It is vital to make one’s positions heard during this time as much as later

on when parties hammer out a coalition agreement after the election. Why? Because the

party manifestos will form the basis for the coalition negotiations. Only starting to

communicate political positions during the negotiations themselves will make it much

harder to get through as one will have to compete with a loud and chaotic chorus of

lobbyists.

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MSL Germany well-prepared to guide through the political fog

MSL Germany is among the most successful communications consultancies in the

German market. Our Berlin office is well-known for its profound public affairs expertise

and we have been ranked No. 1 in a current ranking of German public affairs agencies

(Pfeffers-Agentur-Ranking 2016).

We are passionate about political communication and see through the fog of Germany’s

diverse and de-centralized regulatory and media landscapes. Benefitting from an

outstanding close-knit political network, we know what makes German policy-makers tick

– offering our clients access to formal and informal decision-making processes.

MSL Germany belongs to MSLGROUP, the world’s fifth largest PR network and Publicis

Groupe’s strategic communications and engagement outfit with a strong public affairs

profile in all global political capitals.

MSL Germany’s senior public affairs team

Axel Wallrabenstein provides strategic consultancy to several of

MSL Germany’s most important public affairs clients. As former

secretary-general of the CDU’s youth wing, Axel has a broad network

across all parliamentary parties and to key civil servants. Axel co-

founded the agency in 1999.

Dr. Wigan Salazar has more than a decade’s experience in consulting

especially international companies on their specific needs vis-à-vis

German politics and media. As a former board member of the largest

state organization of the CDU’s youth wing, Wigan has a particularly

strong network within CDU and CSU and moreover has intense ties

to politicians and operatives from the Greens and the Liberals (FDP).

Christoph Moosbauer is one of the most respected public affairs

advisors in Germany. A former member of the Bundestag for the SPD,

Christoph has more than a decade’s experience in providing high -

level advice for clients across a broad range of industries. Christoph

joined MSL Germany in 2015. Prior to this, Christoph worked for the

consultancy Concilius, which he co-founded.