Msim european equities sept12 gstaad
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1Page
European Equities Alpha Funds
Switzerland, September 2012
Morgan Stanley Investment Funds (“MS INVF”)
2Page119165
Experienced and stable investment Team
Jonathan DayPortfolio Manager
Experience: 15 years, MSIM, SocGen,MS QuilterBias: Oil & Gas,Industrials and Utilities
Riccardo BindiPortfolio Manager
Experience: 18 years,MSIM, SocGen,Lombard OdierBias: Technology,Media and Telecommunications
Jaymeen PatelPortfolio Manager
Experience: 15 years, MSIM, State Street,Salomon Brothers, FidelityBias: Telecommunications and Consumers
Luca ArmandolaPortfolio Specialist
Experience: 10 years, MSIM sales, Invesco Italy
Matthew LeemanLead Portfolio Manager
Experience: 18 years, MSIM, SocGen, MontBlanc, Lombard OdierBias: Financials and Pharmaceuticals
Experience, trust and alignment of interest
Team has been together for over 8 years
3Page
High quality investment team with a time-tested inv estment process
• An experienced, stable and well-resourced team • Style agnostic, active, bottom up, fundamental stock picking• Efficient risk / return profile
Consistent Performance
• Stable and strong outperformance• Top quartile peer group ranking
Excellent Working Relationship
• Best in class client service• Part of Morgan Stanley, one of the world’s leading financial institutions
Why invest with the MSIM European Equity team?
Experience, trust and alignment of interest
4Page
Our goal and philosophy
Objective
• Provide long term stable and consistent outperformance
Philosophy
• Exploit market inefficiencies
• Style agnostic, active, bottom up, fundamental stock picking
Differentiated portfolios
• Concentrated (30–50 holdings)
• Conviction (active position between 100 and 300bps)
• Invest for the long term (annual turnover between 25-35%)
• Efficient risk / return profile (high information ratio and low volatility)
What we do
5Page
Consistent long term out-performance
MS European Equity Alpha Representative Account 3,4
11.1
17.7
8.09.7
2.7
-2.1
7.2
11.4
15.9
6.17.1
1.0
-3.8
7.1
-5
0
5
10
15
20
YTD 1 Year 2 Year Ann 3 Year Ann 4 Year Ann 5 Year Ann Since InceptionAnn
%
MS INVF European Equity Alpha Fund MSCI Europe Net Index
Fund performance compared to its benchmark 1,2 at 31st August 2012
1.MSIM, Net of fees2.This fund received a windfall compensation payment in connection with Prudential Equity Group's settlement with the US SEC relating to market timing
charges. Consequently, the net cash injection received in March 2010 and the related withholding tax, accrued in September 2010, have increased the fund’s AUM by €5,437,850 and €2,455,464 , respectively, enhancing the 2010 fund’s performance by 297bps in total. The inception of the fund is March 1991
3.Mercer, SocGen Pan European Concentrated Composite performance is provided for informational purposes only. The European Equity team joined MSIM in December 2006. Performance information is provided as an indication of the European Equity team’s actual track record in managing various pan-European equity portfolios when working together with Société Générale Asset Management and may not be an indication of how MSIM’s European Equity portfolios may perform in the future
4.Ranking: Mercer MPA. Data as of December 2011. This is a representative account of the European Equity Alpha Strategy. Each portfolio may differ due to specific investment restrictions and guidelines. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Inception date for the representative account is March 1991
Consistency of long term performance in different market conditions
1
38/154
2010
4
137/156
2009
1
26/146
2008
MSIM Track Record
1
35/160
2007
2111Quartile
SocGen Track Record
18/125
2005
27/125
2006 (until June)
37/129
20112004
Rank 10/124
6Page
-55%
-45%
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
-55% -45% -35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55%
MSCI Europe Net Index Returns
Eur
opea
n E
quity
Alp
ha C
ompo
site
Ret
urns
Rolling 1 Year Periods Since August 2008 through Ju ne 30, 2012
Monthly Data
Rolling 1 Year Returns vs. MSCI Europe Morgan Stanley European Equity Alpha Composite1 – Euro
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited. Returns are shown gross of figures
Feb 2010Portfolio 37.84
Index 45.89
Jan 10Portfolio 24.56
Index 32.48
Mar 2010Portfolio 48.98
Index 53.17
Dec 2009Portfolio 25.76
Index 31.60
Nov 09Portfolio 15.52
Index 19.03
7Page
Efficient risk / return profile
Source Mercer MPA, GROSS of fees. Period June 2007 – June 2012
Despite the concentrated nature of our portfolios, risk is well diversified and our portfolios are characterised by low and stable tracking errors and volatility which is no higher than the market
8Page
YTD performance attribution
YTD as of June 30, 2012 1
Top Five Contributors:
• Amadeus +43 bps
• Rolls-Royce +31 bps
• Accor +29 bps
• MAN +28 bps
• Prudential +28 bps
Top Five Detractors:
• Wm Morrison -31 bps
• Xstrata -28 bps
• GDF Suez -27 bps
• BBVA -25 bps
• Anheuser-Busch (no exposure) -20 bps
(0.19)0.04(0.23)8.6014.237.1515.47Consumer Staples
0.70(0.03)0.746.0718.5010.7517.48Financials
(0.24)0.00(0.23)3.174.68(18.81)1.24Utilities
0.700.030.675.3310.7911.0312.85Industrials
(0.01)(0.15)0.14(3.01)11.99(2.17)14.08Energy
0.530.030.502.082.9534.651.72Information Technology
0.490.270.22(0.81)6.484.894.36Telecommunication Services
(0.44)0.06(0.50)1.449.89(5.91)7.89Materials
(0.25)(0.01)(0.24)12.258.669.358.13Consumer Discretionary
0.210.080.138.1711.838.9614.66Health Care
0.93(0.27)1.204.75100.005.67100.00Total
(0.24)(0.24)0.000.000.001.302.16Cash
(0.34)(0.34)0.000.000.00(1.72)(0.04)Currency Forward
TotalAllocation
Attribution Analysis - %
SelectionTotal
ReturnAverageweight
MSCI Europe - %
TotalReturn
Average weight
MS European Equity Alpha Rep Account - %
1. In Euro, gross of fees
MS INVF European Equity Alpha Fund
9Page
YTD 2012 main transactions
GalpPortugalEnergy
ArcelorMittalNetherlands
MANGermany
BBVASpain
MetroGermany
SESFrance
Consumer Discretionary
NovartisSwitzerlandPharmaceuticals
RocheSwitzerland
GDF SuezFranceUtilities
Millicom IntlSwedenTelecommunications
Anglo AmericanUnited KingdomMaterials
CarphoneWarehouse
United Kingdom
SiemensGermany
ExperianUnited KingdomIndustrials
BarclaysUnited Kingdom
Financials SocGenSocGenFrance
Final SalesDecreaseIncreaseInitial PurchaseCountrySector
MS INVF European Equity Alpha Fund1
1. Data as of June 30, 2012. Subject to change daily. Provided for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy the securities mentioned or securities in the industries shown above. Morgan Stanley is a full-service securities firm engaged in securities trading and brokerage activities, investment banking, research and analysis, financing and financial advisory services.
Companies in bold and italic represent activitiesin 2Q2012
10Page
What are we looking for
We look for:
• A strong track record of cash generation
• Better than average ROE / ROCE
• High earnings visibility and predictability
• Strong balance sheets
• Dominant or differentiated market positioning
• Proven management teams
We look for:
• Valuation and pricing anomalies
• Stocks trading at a discount to fair value
• Catalysts to unlock a company’s value
• Favourable risk / reward profile
ValuationQuality
We look for opportunities to
deliver high returns over the long term
We look for low risk companies
with strong track records
We also evaluate the market environment to identify factors
driving long term structural change
Macro context
European Equity Alpha/Eurozone Equity Alpha
Concentrated: 30 – 50 holdingsConviction: minimum 100bps active weightLong term: average turnover 25-35%Efficient risk / reward profile: high information ratio, low volatility
11Page
Quality and Valuation: examples
Nestle
• Low cyclicality and good pricing power
• Solid growth from developed markets and increasing EM penetration
• High returns
• Low net debt / equity
• Double digit dividend growth over the last 10 years
KONE
• Third biggest global producer of lifts and escalator
• Strong position in emerging markets (30% earnings)
• Strong and stable cash flow generation thanks to maintenance (60% earnings)
• Consistent track record of margin progression
• Robust balance sheet
Provided for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy the securities mentioned or securities in the industries shown above. Morgan Stanley is a full-service securities firm engaged in securities trading and brokerage activities, investment banking, research and analysis, financing and financial advisory services.
12Page
Case Study: Imperial Tobacco GroupInvestment process in action
Provided for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy the securities mentioned or securities in the industries shown above. Morgan Stanley is a full-service securities firm engaged in securities trading and brokerage activities, investment banking, research and analysis, financing and financial advisory services.
222583
Ongoing contactContinuous reassessment
High and stable margins, good free cash flowHistorically strong return on capital employedAttractive on P/E and FCF yield
Management meetingsMaterial discount to intrinsic valueFavourable risk / reward profile
Portfolio Construction
European Universe:
600 Stocks
Attractive Ideas:
300 Stocks
Best Ideas:
100 Stocks
Final Portfolio:
30–50Stocks
Fundamental Analysis
Filtering and Screening
Research
Imperial Tobacco screens well on valuationIn a consolidated industry with pricing power
13Page
Portfolio Construction
• Stocks with attractive individual risk reward profiles are combined
• Awareness of broader macro context
• Consideration to both the consolidated risk profile of the portfolio and risk relative to the benchmark
Characteristics
• Active position between 100 and 300bps
• Sector weight: unconstrained (ordinarily up to 7% active)
• Country weight: unconstrained (ordinarily up to 10% active)
• Diversified and well balanced portfolio (30 – 50 holdings)
• Invest for the long term (annual turnover between 25-35%)
• Portfolio fully invested
14Page
Selling is as important as buying
We continuously review our investments and aren’t afraid to adjust our holdings if our conviction changes or new ideas emerge
• We believe that successful investing is as much about being good at selling as it is being good at buying
• We will typically sell or trim our position in a stock if:
– Original prospects deteriorate
– Valuation relative to peers / sector becomes less attractive
– Risk management parameters are challenged
– We identify more compelling alternatives
222584
15Page
Managing the risks that matter
Stock Level
• Management risk
• Financial risk
• Business risk
• Valuation risk
Portfolio Level
• Stock weightings
• Inter-correlations
• Historical scenario analysis
• Diversification
• Stable tracking error
Also monitored by:Global Risk and Analysis team
Equity CIO function Compliance department
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3 years 1 - 12m Rolling Standard Deviation - MS INVF European Equity Alpha Fund vs. MSCI Europe
3 years 1 - 12m Rolling Tracking Error - MS INVF European Equity Alpha Fund
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12MS INVF European Equity Alpha FundMSCI Europe Net Index
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12
MS INVF European Equity Alpha Fund
1. Data as of June 2012
16Page
15.6
14.0
12.6
16.0
17.6
5.7
2.0
6.9
6.9
0.0
12.4
11.7
10.7
15.0
18.3
6.5
2.8
8.6
9.4
4.6
Health Care
Energy
Industrials
Consumer Staples
Financials
Telecommunication Services
Information Technology
Consumer Discretionary
Materials
Utilities
MS INVF European Equity Alpha Fund MSCI Europe Index
Largest Portfolio Holdings Within Each Sector (%) 1
Sector Weightings
1. Data as of June 30, 2012. Subject to change daily. Provided for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy the securities mentioned or securities in the industries shown above. Morgan Stanley is a full-service securities firm engaged in securities trading and brokerage activities, investment banking, research and analysis, financing and financial advisory services. Applications for shares in any Morgan Stanley Investment Fund should not be made without first consulting the current Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus, Annual Report and Semi-Annual Report or other documents available in your local jurisdiction which are available free of charge from MSIM.
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited
Morgan Stanley INVF European Equity Alpha Fund
Daimler, Reed Elsevier
HSBC, Zurich Financial Services, Prudential
Siemens, Rolls-Royce Holdings, Experian
Royal Dutch Shell, BG, BP
Anglo American, Umicore, Xstrata
Novartis, GlaxoSmithKline
Vodafone, Millicom International Cellular
Nestlé, British American Tobacco, Imperial Tobacco
Amadeus IT
17Page
This is why MSIM
• Part of Morgan Stanley, one of the world leading financial institutions
• An experienced and stable investment team built on trust and respect
• High conviction and concentrated portfolios
• Efficient risk / return profile
• Compelling and steady performance versus benchmark and peers
18Page
Our MS INVF European Equity Alpha FundSection 2
19Page
(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)
(1.5)(1.5)
(1.6)1.91.9
2.12.12.12.12.1
2.22.2
2.5
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
DiageoBASF
Rio TintoAnheuser-Busch
BSCHBhp Billiton
Novo NordiskRoyal Dutch Shell
Sanofi-AventisTotal
Amadeus It HoldingPrudential
BGNestle
Royal Dutch Shell Fresenius Vodafone
Imperial TobaccoBritish American Tobacco
Rolls-Royce
Difference to MSCI Europe (%)
We believe that to deliver long term outperformance, our holdings should be different to the benchmark with no neutral weightings and no long tail of stocks with low conviction
As a result, we only invest in our highest conviction stocks and seek to maintain a minimum active weight of 1% in each
The only reason we are underweight in any stock is because we don’t hold it
This creates a highly efficient portfolio
1. Data as of June 30, 2012. Subject to change daily. Provided for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy the securities mentioned or securities in the industries shown above. Morgan Stanley is a full-service securities firm engaged in securities trading and brokerage activities, investment banking, research and analysis, financing and financial advisory services. Applications for shares in any Morgan Stanley Investment Fund should not be made without first consulting the current Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus, Annual Report and Semi-Annual Report or other documents available in your local jurisdiction which are available free of charge from MSIM.
A high conviction approachMS INVF European Equity Alpha Fund
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited
222585
Top Ten Over and Underweights 1
We typically maintain a minimum active weight of 1%
in each of our holdings
We have zero exposure to these stocks and therefore
by definition are underweight relative to the benchmark
Top 10 underweights
Top 10 overweights
20Page
MS INVF European Equity Alpha Fund
1. Data as of June 30, 2012. All information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy or sell the securities mentioned or any securities from the Industries mentioned above. Applications for shares in any Morgan Stanley Investment Fund should not be made without first consulting the current Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus, Annual Report and Semi-Annual Report or other documents available in your local jurisdiction which are available free of charge from MSIM.
2. Relative to the MSCI Europe Net Index.
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited
222590
2.0 4.1 United KingdomOil, Gas & Consumable FuelsRoyal Dutch Shell
3.2 5.3 SwitzerlandFood ProductsNestle
1.1 3.3 United KingdomOil, Gas & Consumable FuelsBG
1.6 3.8 United KingdomTobaccoBritish American Tobacco
0.6 2.8 United KingdomTobaccoImperial Tobacco
0.4 2.9 United KingdomAerospace & DefenceRolls-Royce
2.3 4.4 United KingdomWireless Telecommunication ServicesVodafone
0.2 2.3 GermanyHealth Care Providers & ServicesFresenius
0.1 2.0 SpainIt ServicesAmadeus It Holding
0.5 2.4 United KingdomInsurancePrudential
Index 2
(%)
MS INVF European Equity Alpha Fund
(%)CountryIndustrySecurity
1.0 0.0SpainCommercial BanksBSCH
1.0 0.0BelgiumBeveragesAnheuser-Busch
1.0 0.0 United KingdomMetals & MiningRio Tinto
1.0 0.0 GermanyChemicalsBASF
1.0 0.0 United KingdomBeveragesDiageo
1.5 0.0 FrancePharmaceuticalsSanofi-Aventis
1.5 0.0United KingdomOil, Gas & Consumable FuelsRoyal Dutch Shell
1.0 0.0United KingdomMetals & MiningBhp Billiton
1.6 0.0 FranceOil, Gas & Consumable FuelsTotal
1.0 0.0DenmarkPharmaceuticalsNovo Nordisk
Index 2
(%)
MS INVF European Equity Alpha Fund
(%)CountryIndustrySecurity
A high conviction approach
21Page
1. Data as of June 30, 2012. Subject to change daily. Provided for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy the securities mentioned or securities in the industries shown above. Morgan Stanley is a full-service securities firm engaged in securities trading and brokerage activities, investment banking, research and analysis, financing and financial advisory services. Applications for shares in any Morgan Stanley Investment Fund should not be made without first consulting the current Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus, Annual Report and Semi-Annual Report or other documents available in your local jurisdiction which are available free of charge from MSIM
2. Société Générale Equity Research. December 2008
Our investment process and philosophy results in a highly concentrated, yet diversified portfolio
Our portfolio typically averages between 30–50 stocks, whereas the average European Equitymutual fund typically has over 80 holdings2
Our portfolio is concentrated, with the top ten stocks accounting for 40% of assets
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3.5 SwitzerlandPharmaceuticalsRoche
3.5 United KingdomOil, Gas & Consumable FuelsBP
3.6 United KingdomPharmaceuticalsGlaxosmithkline
3.8 SwitzerlandPharmaceuticalsNovartis
4.4 United KingdomCommercial BanksHSBC
3.8 United KingdomTobaccoBritish American Tobacco
4.4 United KingdomWireless Telecommunication ServicesVodafone
3.3 United KingdomOil, Gas & Consumable FuelsBG
4.1 United KingdomOil, Gas & Consumable FuelsRoyal Dutch Shell
5.3 SwitzerlandFood ProductsNestle
39.7Total
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited
(%)CountryIndustrySecurity Name
Top Ten Holdings 1
A well balanced and diversified portfolioMS INVF European Equity Alpha Fund
22Page
(4.6)
(2.5)
(1.7)
(0.8)
(0.8)
(0.7)
1.0
1.9
2.3
3.2
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Utilities
Materials
Consumer Discretionary
Telecommunication Services
Information Technology
Financials
Consumer Staples
Industrials
Energy
Health Care
Difference to MSCI Europe (%)
Different from the benchmarkMS INVF European Equity Alpha Fund
We are not constrained by sector weightings – we make investment decisions based on the attractiveness and value of individual companies
1. Data as of June 30, 2012. Subject to change daily. Provided informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy the securities mentioned or securities in the industries shown above. Morgan Stanley is a full-service securities firm engaged in securities trading and brokerage activities, investment banking, research and analysis, financing and financial advisory services. Applications for shares in any Morgan Stanley Investment Fund should not be made without first consulting the current Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus, Annual Report and Semi-Annual Report or other documents available in your local jurisdiction which are available free of charge from MSIM
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited
OverweightUnderweight
Sector weighting compared to benchmark 1
222587
23Page
Portfolio Characteristics1
Market Capitalisation Weights
1.Data as of June 30, 2012. Figures are from the Morgan Stanley INVF European Equity Alpha Fund. Applications for shares in any Morgan Stanley Investment Fund should not be made without first consulting the current Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus, Annual Report and Semi-Annual Report or other documents available in your local jurisdiction which are available free of charge from MSIM. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and 5 years data is available upon request
MS INVF European Equity Alpha Fund
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4046Mega Cap > $50 bn
5050Large Cap $5-50 bn
104Mid Cap $1-5 bn
00Small Cap <$1bn
$52.3$68.9Weighted Average Market Cap $bn
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited, MSCI and FactSet
MSCI Europe Index(%)
MS INVF European Equity Alpha Fund(%)
Valuation RatiosQuality Ratios
7.2
13.9
1.3
4.3
9.4
7.4
13.5
1.4
4.1
11.5
Dividend Yield (%)
Price/Book (x)
Price/Earnings (x)
Price/Free Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow Yield (%)
22.3
24.6
3.9
20.1
20.1
4.0
ROCE
ROE
Past 5 yrsearnings growth
MS INVF European Equity Alpha Fund MSCI Europe Index
24Page
MS INVF European Equity Alpha FundGeographic allocations1
1. Data as of June 30, 2012. Subject to change daily. Provided informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy the securities mentioned or securities in the industries shown above. Morgan Stanley is a full-service securities firm engaged in securities trading and brokerage activities, investment banking, research and analysis, financing and financial advisory services. Applications for shares in any Morgan Stanley Investment Fund should not be made without first consulting the current Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus, Annual Report and Semi-Annual Report or other documents available in your local jurisdiction which are available free of charge from MSIM. Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Management
1.120.271.39Societe Generale
1.200.051.25Galp Energia SGPS
1.380.551.93Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A.1.920.112.03Amadeus IT Holdings S.A.
(0.27)4.223.96Spain
1.460.411.87Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG
1.510.972.48Bayer AG
1.581.122.70Siemens AG
2.090.212.30Fresenius SE
1.730.131.85Reed Elsevier N.V.1.100.231.34ArcelorMittal S.A.
1.300.071.37MAN SE
1.250.601.85BNP Paribas S.A.
1.310.081.38Accor S.A.
1.380.471.85Schneider Electric S.A.
1.490.662.15Daimler AG
1.000.251.25Portugal(1.45)1.450.00Norway
1.630.151.78Kone Oyj
1.420.111.53SES S.A.
(0.47)0.470.00Ireland
0.661.131.78Finland(1.79)1.790.00Denmark
(0.08)0.080.00Greece
(0.77)3.963.19Netherlands(3.39)3.390.00Italy
0.3712.5112.88Germany
(6.09)14.108.00France
1.660.091.75Umicore S.A.0.001.751.75Belgium
(0.43)Active
0.43Benchmark
0.00Portfolio
AustriaCompany
1.280.101.38Millicom International Cellular S.A.
1.400.161.56Wm. Morrison Supermarkets plc
1.430.712.14Anglo American plc
1.472.043.51BP plc
1.711.863.58GlaxoSmithKline plc
1.840.572.40Reckitt Benckiser Group plc
2.092.284.37Vodafone Group plc
2.141.133.26BG Group plc
2.161.633.79British American Tobacco plc
2.210.632.84Imperial Tobacco Group plc
2.480.412.89Rolls-Royce Group plc
1.702.093.79Novartis AG
1.770.232.00Experian plc
1.832.584.41HSBC Holdings plc
1.900.482.38Prudential plc
1.660.542.20Zurich Financial Services AG
2.102.014.11Royal Dutch Shell plc (CL A)
1.550.341.89Tullow Oil plc
ActiveBenchmarkPortfolioCompany
2.123.215.32Nestlé S.A.
1.491.973.46Roche Holdings AG
1.270.421.69Xstrata plc
1.090.481.57Barclays plc2.660.002.66Cash
(3.51)4.881.38Sweden
12.1036.2948.39UK
0.00100.00100.00TOTAL
1.4513.3214.77Switzerland
25Page
Our MS INVF Eurozone Equity Alpha FundSection 3
26Page
12.414.4
4.7 5.3
0.2
(4.4)(1.7)
10.1 9.6
1.2 0.9
(3.9)
(7.5)
(2.2)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
YTD 1 Year 2 Year Ann 3 Year Ann 4 Year Ann 5 Year Ann Since Inception
%
MS INVF Eurozone Equity Alpha Fund MSCI EMU/ MSCI Europe
Consistent long-term performanceMS INVF Eurozone Equity Alpha Fund
Fund performance compared to its benchmark 1, 2 at 31st August 2012
1. MSIM, Net of fees2. This fund received a windfall compensation payment in connection with Prudential Equity Group's settlement with the US SEC relating to market timing charges. Consequently, the net cash injection received in March 2010 and the related withholding tax, accrued in September 2010, have increased the fund’s AUM by €2,106,232 and €947,197, respectively, enhancing the overall 2010 fund’s performance by 458bps. The inception date of the fund is March 20003. Mercer, SocGen Pan European Concentrated Composite performance is provided for informational purposes only. The European Equity team joinedMSIM in December 2006. Performance information is provided as an indication of the European Equity team’s actual track record in managing various pan-European equity portfolios when working together with Société Générale Asset Management and may not be an indication of how MSIM’s European Equity portfolios may perform in the future4. Ranking: Mercer MPA. Data as of December 2011. This is a representative account of the European Equity Alpha Strategy. Each portfolio may differ due to specific investment restrictions and guidelines. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Inception date for the representative account is March 1991
MS European Equity Alpha Representative Account 3,4
1
38/154
2010
4
137/156
2009
1
26/146
2008
MSIM Track Record
1
35/160
2007
2111Quartile
SocGen Track Record
18/125
2005
27/125
2006 (until June)
37/129
20112004
Rank 10/124
27Page
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
MSCI EMU Index Returns
Eur
ozon
e E
quity
Alp
ha R
etur
ns
Rolling 1 Year Periods Since August 2008 through Ju ne 30, 2012Monthly Data
Rolling 1 Year Returns vs. MSCI EMUMorgan Stanley Eurozone Equity Alpha Composite1 – Euro
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited. Returns are shown gross of figures
Feb 10Portfolio 38.03
Index 43.44
Mar 10Portfolio 53.43
Index 48.78
Jan 10Portfolio 26.10
Index 30.19
28Page
Our risk / return profile
Source Mercer MPA, GROSS of fees. Period June 2007 – June 2012
Despite the concentrated nature of our portfolios, risk is well diversified and our portfolios are characterised by low and stable tracking errors and volatility which is no higher than the market
29Page
YTD performance attribution
Top Five Contributors:
• Amadeus +66 bps
• Azimut +64 bps
• Safran +54 bps
• MAN +47 bps
• Total (no exposure) +44 bps
Top Five Detractors:
• Anheuser-Busch (no exposure) -51 bps
• Ansaldo -50 bps
• Faurecia -37 bps
• GDF Suez -36 bps
• BBVA -34 bps
YTD as of June 30, 2012 1
0.53(0.06)0.58(5.87)8.380.569.05Energy
0.040.19(0.15)(3.71)7.17(18.81)2.22Utilities
0.65(0.02)0.675.195.0234.652.54Information Technology
0.300.070.234.1912.885.6718.83Industrials
0.13(0.10)0.2314.077.8217.436.88Health Care
0.130.42(0.29)(8.91)7.11(17.57)3.50Telecommunication Services
2.02(0.01)2.03(0.66)18.989.8920.57Financials
(0.28)0.13(0.41)9.8711.147.0715.78Consumer Staples
(0.08)0.04(0.12)4.219.622.087.37Materials
(0.38)(0.18)(0.19)11.0911.879.2010.83Consumer Discretionary
3.070.492.582.85100.005.93100.00Total
0.010.010.000.000.000.272.43Cash
TotalAllocation
Attribution Analysis - %
SelectionTotal
ReturnAverageweight
MSCI EMU - %
TotalReturn
Average weight
MS Eurozone Equity Alpha Rep Account - %
1. In Euro, gross of fees
MS INVF Eurozone Equity Alpha Fund
30Page
(1.4)
(1.4)
(1.5)
(1.5)
(2.1)
(2.4)
(2.4)
(2.5)
(3.5)
(3.7)
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Groupe Danone
Air Liquide
E.ON
Lvmh
SAP
Anheuser-Busch Inbev
BSCH
BASF
Sanofi-Aventis
Total
Royal Ahold
ENI
Siemens
Imperial Tobacco
Kone
Royal Dutch Shell
Unilever
Pernod Ricard
Safran
Fresenius
Difference to MSCI EMU (%)
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited
Top 10 Overweight
Top 10 Underweight
222674
We have zero exposure to these stocks and
therefore by definition are underweight relative to
the benchmark
We typically maintain a minimum active weight of 1% in each of our holdings
We believe that to deliver long term outperformance, our holdings should be different to the benchmark with no neutral weightings and no long tail of stocks with low conviction
As a result, we only invest in our highest conviction stocks and seek to maintain a minimum active weight of 1% in each
The only reason we are underweight in any stock is because we don’t hold it
This creates a highly efficient portfolio
Top Ten Over and Underweights 1
1. Data as of June 30, 2012. Subject to change daily. Provided for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy the securities mentioned or securities in the industries shown above. Morgan Stanley is a full-service securities firm engaged in securities trading and brokerage activities, investment banking, research and analysis, financing and financial advisory services. Applications for shares in any Morgan Stanley Investment Fund should not be made without first consulting the current Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus, Annual Report and Semi-Annual Report or other documents available in your local jurisdiction which are available free of charge from MSIM.
A high conviction approachMorgan Stanley INVF Eurozone Equity Alpha Fund1
31Page144116
1. Data as of June 30, 2012. Morgan Stanley INVF Eurozone Equity Alpha Fund. All information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy or sell the securities mentioned or any securities from the Industries mentioned above. Applications for shares in any Morgan Stanley Investment Fund should not be made without first consulting the current Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus, Annual Report and Semi-Annual Report or other documents available in your local jurisdiction which are available free of charge from MSIM.2. Relative to the MSCI EMU Index.
2.0 4.4 ItalyOil, Gas & Consumable FuelsENI
2.7 5.0 GermanyIndustrial ConglomeratesSiemens
0.4 2.8 FinlandMachineryKone
0.9 3.6 FranceBeveragesPernod Ricard
0.3 3.0 FranceAerospace & DefenceSafran
0.5 3.2 GermanyHealth Care Providers & ServicesFresenius
0.5 2.9 NetherlandsFood & Staples RetailingRoyal Ahold
0.0 2.6 United KingdomOil, Gas & Consumable FuelsRoyal Dutch Shell
0.0 2.5 United KingdomTobaccoImperial Tobacco
2.1 4.8 NetherlandsFood ProductsUnilever
Index 2
(%)MS INVF Eurozone Equity
Alpha Fund (%)CountryIndustrySecurity
1.4 0.0 FranceChemicalsAir Liquide
1.5 0.0 FranceTextiles, Apparel & Luxury GoodsLvmh
2.4 0.0 SpainCommercial BanksBSCH
1.4 0.0 FranceFood ProductsGroupe Danone
3.7 0.0 FranceOil, Gas & Consumable FuelsTotal
3.5 0.0 FrancePharmaceuticalsSanofi-Aventis
2.1 0.0 GermanySoftware SAP
1.5 0.0 GermanyElectric UtilitiesE.ON
2.4 0.0 BelgiumBeveragesAnheuser-Busch Inbev
Index 2
(%)MS INVF Eurozone Equity
Alpha Fund (%)CountryIndustrySecurity
2.5 0.0 GermanyChemicalsBASF
A high conviction approachTop Ten Over and Underweights 1
32Page
Our investment process and philosophy results in a highly concentrated, yet diversified portfolio
Our portfolio typically averages between 30–50 stocks, whereas the average European Equitymutual fund typically has over 80 holdings2
Our portfolio is concentrated, with the top ten stocks accounting for 40% of assets
222673
1. Data as of June 30, 2012. Subject to change daily. Provided for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy the securities mentioned or securities in the industries shown above. Morgan Stanley is a full-service securities firm engaged in securities trading and brokerage activities, investment banking, research and analysis, financing and financial advisory services. Applications for shares in any Morgan Stanley Investment Fund should not be made without first consulting the current Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus, Annual Report and Semi-Annual Report or other documents available in your local jurisdiction which are available free of charge from MSIM2. Société Générale Equity Research. December 2008
Morgan Stanley INVF Eurozone Equity Alpha Fund1
3.5 SpainCommercial BanksBanco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria
3.6 FranceBeveragesPernod Ricard
3.7 GermanyInsuranceAllianz
4.4 ItalyOil, Gas & Consumable FuelsENI
4.8 NetherlandsFood ProductsUnilever
4.4 GermanyPharmaceuticalsBayer
3.4 FranceCommercial BanksBNP Paribas
3.5 GermanyAutomobilesDaimlerchrysler
5.0 GermanyIndustrial ConglomeratesSiemens
3.3 GermanyInsuranceMuenchener Reuckversicherungsem
39.6Total
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited
(%)CountryIndustrySecurity Name
A well balanced and diversified portfolio
Top Ten Holdings 1
33Page
19.2
16.6
21.0
9.0
11.7
7.5
6.9
2.5
3.2
0.0
12.9
11.9
18.6
8.0
11.6
8.8
9.2
4.9
7.0
7.1
Industrials
Consumer Staples
Financials
Energy
Consumer Discretionary
Health Care
Materials
Information Technology
Telecommunication Services
Utilities
MS INVF Eurozone Equity Alpha Fund MSCI EMU Index
Largest Portfolio Holdings Within Each Sector (%) 1
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Management
144114
Sector WeightingsMorgan Stanley INVF Eurozone Equity Alpha Fund
1. Data as of June 30, 2012. Subject to change daily. Provided for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy the securities mentioned or securities in the industries shown above. Morgan Stanley is a full-service securities firm engaged in securities trading and brokerage activities, investment banking, research and analysis, financing and financial advisory services. Applications for shares in any Morgan Stanley Investment Fund should not be made without first consulting the current Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus, Annual Report and Semi-Annual Report or other documents available in your local jurisdiction which are available free of charge from MSIM.
BNP Paribas, BBVA, Allianz
ArcelorMittal, Umicore, CRH
Royal Dutch Shell, ENI, Galp Energia
Amadeus IT
Siemens, Schneider Electric, Safran
Unilever, Ahold, Pernod Ricard
Bayer, Fresenius
Telefonica
Daimler, SES, Reed Elsevier
34Page
(7.1)
(3.8)
(2.4)
(2.3)
(1.3)
0.1
1.0
2.4
4.7
6.3
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Utilities
Telecommunication Services
Information Technology
Materials
Health Care
Consumer Discretionary
Energy
Financials
Consumer Staples
Industrials
Difference to MSCI EMU (%)
We are not constrained by sector weightings – we make investment decisions based on the attractiveness and value of individual companies
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited
OverweightUnderweight
Sector weighting compared to benchmark 1
222674
1. Data as of June 30, 2012. Subject to change daily. Provided informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy the securities mentioned or securities in the industries shown above. Morgan Stanley is a full-service securities firm engaged in securities trading and brokerage activities, investment banking, research and analysis, financing and financial advisory services. Applications for shares in any Morgan Stanley Investment Fund should not be made without first consulting the current Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus, Annual Report and Semi-Annual Report or other documents available in your local jurisdiction which are available free of charge from MSIMSee benchmark weightings in the appendix.
Morgan Stanley INVF Eurozone Equity Alpha FundDifferent from the benchmark
35Page 144113
Portfolio Characteristics
Market Cap Weights 1
Morgan Stanley INVF Eurozone Equity Alpha Fund
1.Data as of June 30, 2012. Figures are from the Morgan Stanley INVF Eurozone Equity Alpha Fund. Applications for shares in any Morgan Stanley Investment Fund should not be made without first consulting the current Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus, Annual Report and Semi-Annual Report or other documents available in your local jurisdiction which are available free of charge from MSIM. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and 5 years data is available upon request
05Small Cap < 1 bn
2823Mega Cap > $50 bn
5863Large Cap $5–50 bn
149Mid Cap $1–5 bn
$31.7bn$27.4bnWeighted Average Market Cap $bn
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Management, MSCI and FactSet
MSCI EMU Index(%)
MS INVF Eurozone Equity Alpha Fund(%)
Valuation RatiosQuality Ratios
8.1
7.3
1.3
4.2
11.5
8.2
5.8
1.1
4.6
11.6
Dividend Yield (%)
Price/Book (x)
Price/Earnings (x)
Price/Free Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow Yield (%)
16.1
20.8
11.5
13.2
15.6
11.6
ROCE
ROE
Past 5 yrsearnings growth
MS INVF Eurozone Equity Alpha Fund MSCI EMU Index
36Page
Geographic Allocations1
Morgan Stanley INVF Eurozone Equity Alpha Fund
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited
1. Data as of June 30, 2012. Subject to change daily. Provided informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy the securities mentioned or securities in the industries shown above. Morgan Stanley is a full-service securities firm engaged in securities trading and brokerage activities, investment banking, research and analysis, financing and financial advisory services. Applications for shares in any Morgan Stanley Investment Fund should not be made without first consulting the current Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus, Annual Report and Semi-Annual Report or other documents available in your local jurisdiction which are available free of charge from MSIM.
2.30.32.6SES S.A.
1.50.01.5Faurecia
2.12.34.4Bayer AG
2.70.63.2Fresenius SE
1.91.83.7Allianz SE
2.01.63.5Daimler AG
2.30.52.7Henkel AG
2.01.13.1Schneider Electric S.A.
1.60.01.6Hamburger Hafen und Ligistik AG
2.41.03.3Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG
1.80.22.0Accor S.A.
1.91.43.4BNP Paribas S.A.
2.70.33.0Safran S.A.
2.42.75.0Siemens AG
2.70.93.6Pernod Ricard S.A.
2.10.93.0AXA S.A.
1.90.22.0MAN SE
1.10.61.8Societe Generale S.A.
2.50.42.8Kone Oyj0.12.72.8Finland
(0.1)29.629.5Germany
(9.5)33.323.8France
1.90.22.1Umicore S.A.(2.0)4.12.1Belgium(1.0)
Active1.0
Benchmark0.00
PortfolioAustriaCompany
2.60.02.6Royal Dutch Shell Plc (CL A)
2.40.52.9Royal Ahold N.V.
1.90.32.2Reed Elsevier N.V.
2.30.32.5Amadeus IT Holdings
2.50.02.5Imperial Tobacco Group Plc
1.60.62.1ArcelorMittal S.A.
2.30.02.3Azimut Holding
2.21.33.5Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A.
1.60.01.6Ansaldo STS
1.12.13.2Telefonica S.A.
2.42.04.4ENI S.p.A.
2.72.14.8Unilever N.V.
1.80.11.9Galp Energia SGPS
(0.2)0.20.00Greece1.61.12.7Ireland2.20.52.7CRH Plc0.38.08.3Italy
2,79.412.1Netherlands
1.30.61.9Portugal
2.40.002.4Cash
5.20.005.2UK
0.00100.00100.00TOTAL
(0.8)
Active
10.0
Benchmark
9.2
Portfolio
Spain
Company
37Page
Additional informationAppendix 1
38Page
Key characteristics1
We look for strong cash flows and better than average ROE / ROCE
Our investment process is designed to identify European companies which meet our clear quality and value criteria
We believe that companies which are able to deliver superior ROE and are generating high free cash flows are able to deliver superior returns over the long term
• We look for better than average ROE / ROCE among th e companies we invest in
• We invest in companies which typically generate a h igh level of free cash flow
Valuation
We look for opportunities
to deliver high returns
over the long term
Quality
We look for low risk companies
with strong track records
1.Period April 2007 – June 2012. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and 5 years data is available upon request.
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited
222671
Return on Capital Employed Free Cash Flow Yield
13
17
21
25
Apr-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jan-11 Oct-11
Per
cent
(%
)
MS INVF European Equity FundMSCI Europe Net Index
2
4
6
8
10
Apr-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jan-11 Oct-11
Per
cent
(%
)
MS INVF European Equity Alpha Fund
MSCI Europe Net Index
39Page119174
Filtering and ScreeningOur high level financial analysis seeks to identify potentially attractive investment ideas
We perform initial filtering and screening to identify potentially attractive investment ideas worthy of more detailed analysis
We focus on high level financial analysis to evaluate the performance and characteristics of individual stocks
• From the European universe, identify quality stocks with pricing and valuation anomalies which could present attractive investment ideas
Objective
• We employ a series of high level financial filters, using a range of external screens
– At this stage, our analysis focuses on valuation and earnings trends, revisions and inflexion points
• We also complement this by bringing to bear the team’s experience and knowledge of the European landscape
Approach
• 300 potentially attractive investment ideas
• Typical characteristics include:
– Attractive valuations
– Track record of performance
– Strong cash flow generation
– High returns on investment
– Strong balance sheet
– High and sustainable margins vs peers in the sector
Output
European Universe
40Page
ResearchTo identify our best ideas we perform deeper research and qualitative analysis
During the research stage, we perform more detailed financial analysis on the 300 potentially attractive investment ideas identified during our filtering and screening process
We also leverage our experience of the European market to perform more qualitative analysis, taking into account broader macro drivers which could influence a stock’s long term value potential
• Narrow down our 300 attractive investment ideas to the best 100 ideasObjective
• Perform broader and deeper research and qualitative analysis, leveraging MSIM equity and fixed income teams, external research and Morgan Stanley resources
• Analysis typically includes:
– Performing financial analysis
– Conducting key value driver analysis
– Enhancing our understanding of the company’s business model
– Evaluating corporate risk profiles
– Building an understanding of the management team’s vision, strategy and execution track record
– Leveraging our extensive network of local brokers and contacts cultivated over many years to obtain primary insights
• We also evaluate stocks in light of their market and competitive position and any sector trends or emerging structural themes which could impact attractiveness
Approach
• A watch list of the team’s view on the 100 best stock ideas
• The fundamental analysis requiredOutput
222581
41Page
Fundamental analysisThe final stage of the process is focused on identifying our highest conviction stocks
Finally, we conduct rigorous fundamental analysis on our 100 best ideas to identify the few stocks which we believe present the best long term opportunitiesto add value
We will only invest if we have high conviction and confidence in a stock’s upside potential
• Select the stocks to create the final portfolioObjective
• Recommendations including:
– Rationale for selection and anticipated upside potential
– Risk / return analysis
– Fit with, or implications on, the existing portfolio and client guidelines
– A funding strategy and trade timeline
• Final portfolio which:
– Is concentrated and comprised of our highest conviction stocks (typically 30–50 stocks)
– Has no benchmark neutral weightings (minimum active stock weight typically +1%)
– Does not have a long tail
– Is typically fully invested
Output
• During this stage we conduct detailed scenario and sensitivity analysis oneach stock’s financials
• We conduct:
– Rigorous analysis on the company’s forecasts (e.g. sales, margins, capital expenditures and cash flow)
– Discounted cash flow and sum of the parts analysis to determine fair value(other techniques are also used)
– Focused meetings with the management team to better challenge its strategy and forecasts, validate our assumptions and gain true insight into their capability
• We develop concise research notes with recommendations for each stock
• We then conduct a relative assessment of the recommendations at theteam’s weekly investment meeting
Approach
European Universe
222582
42Page
The top chart shows how many equally weighted stocks are required to achieve a market return profile
The lower chart illustrates how non-market risk is eliminated as the number of stocks increases
30-40 stocks is the threshold above which portfolios become diversified
Diversification – How Many Stocks ?Evidence suggests that diversification is achieved by holding around 30-40 stocks
43Page
Non-investment grade rallies Rallies are sharp but short
We prefer to invest in quality stocks for the long term
Non-Investment Grade Stocks Based on S&P Senior Deb t Rating: Relative Annual ReturnsCap Weighted Returns
As of Month-End, December 2011
(40%)
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
44Page
Market OutlookSection 4
45Page
• Austerity programmes continue and are working slowly and painfully
• The European summit in early July represents important steps in the right direction
• Draghi will do ‘whatever it takes’ to support the Euro
• Following the ECB meeting this has substance
• Objective: “…to repair monetary policy transmission channels which today are hampered and to recreate a single monetary policy framework”
• The ECB remains open to further non standard monetary measures
• Sovereigns will be able to fund themselves at sustainable rates
• More visibility on policy front should sustain a re-rating of European Equities
Europe is making progress…
European Summit:
- Work towards closer financial /banking union, ECB the single regulator-Breaking the link between banks and sovereigns (EFSF/ESM funding for banking sector bail-outs)
ECB:
Outright Monetary Transactions programme with guidance about terms, conditionality, maturity, and seniority (pari passu)
46Page
… supporting already attractive European Equities
• Euro weakness favours European exporters
• Europe is leveraged to global recovery
• European company finances are healthy
• Expectations for European Equities are at historical lows
• European earnings are at historically depressed levels vs. US
• Europe is cheap and investors are underweight
47Page
Europe is moving in the right direction
Spread to German 2 years Government Bond Yield (bps )
Source: DataStream, MSCI, JP Morgan Research September 2012
48Page
Source: 2012 April WEO, International Monetary Fund
Outlook improving in the years ahead
Debt ratio to peak earlier and at lower levels than other economies
Fiscal consolidation is largely frontloaded
49Page
Source: Ecofin 2012, Spring Forecast, June 2012
Improving fiscal position for Euro Area
External rebalancing is moving on
50Page
Strengthening USD has implied better European Equities
MSCI Europe vs. US and EUR/USD
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, JP Morgan, September 2012
51Page
Source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan, September 2012
EURO provides a boost …
Trade-weighted Euro
The trade-weighted Euro is at the lowest level since 2003
52Page
… for the Eurozone economy
Eurozone export share of GDP
Source: Eurostat, JP Morgan, August 2012
A weaker Euro could boost European exports and competitiveness, positively impacting GDP growth
53Page
Strong international exposure by EU companies
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates, September 2012
MS GDP forecasts weighted by geographical revenue e xposure
54Page
Lower economic growth does not necessarily mean weaker equity markets
European Equities can outperform US Equities when EUR weakens vs the USD
Source: JP Morgan Research, Datastream, MSCI, January 2012
Periods of European Equities outperformance over US Equities
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
MSCI Europe relativ e to US MSCI Europe relativ e to US
-11%-2.0%Dec 04 to Mar 06
-7%0.3%Jun 99 to Feb 00
-26%-3.5%Aug 92 to Jan 94
-10%0.0%Jan 88 to Mar 89
-30%-8.9%Dec 80 to Apr 86
-2%-3.1%Oct 76 to Oct 77
EUR/USDEuropean relative to US GDP growthPeriod
55Page
European corporates remain healthy …
Source: IBES, MSCI, Datastream, Morgan Stanley Research, September 2012. Note: data excludes financials sector.
e = IBES estimates
European companies – EBITDA Margins %
European non-financials at cycle low debt ratios - %
56Page
Eurozone non financials Dividend Yield is above its Credit Yield
Source: Datastream, STOXX, IBOXX, Morgan Stanley Research, September 2012
Euro Stoxx ex Financials Dividend Yield vs. IBoxx Eur Non-Financials Credit Yield
57Page
Equities attractive vs. Bonds
Source: MSCI, Global Financial Data, Morgan Stanley Research, September 2012
MSCI Europe – Dividend Yield to Bond Yield
58Page
Market implies negative real earnings growth annual ly for 20 yearsAssuming a 3.5% ERP
The demise of growth expectations
Source: Goldman Sachs Research, August 2012
59Page
Market-wide undervaluation in Europe
Source: MSCI, DataStream, Morgan Stanley Research, September 2012
Upside to fair value for sectors based on 20-yrs av erage ROE and P/E assumptions
60Page
Trough valuationsEuropean Trend P/E
Source: MSCI, Morgan Stanley Research, Mirabaud Securities, September 2012
MSCI Europe – P/BV
61Page
Europe looks cheap relative to global markets
Source: Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse Research, August 2012
European Shiller P/E relative to global
Continental Europe non-financials P/B relative to W orld
62Page
MSCI Europe TR Index vs MSCI USA
Europe at 30-yr total return low vs US
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, July 2012
63Page
What are the chances of that? odds of particular return when Buying European market in the current P/E band (since 1973)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
< -20% -20% to -10% -10% to 0% 0% to +10% +10% to +20% > +20%
1-year 3-year 5-yearSubsequent compound return, by returns band
% of months that saw a particular return
Source: Absolute Return Strategies, June 2012
64Page
Investment Team BiographiesAppendix 2
65Page
The Team
Matthew LeemanManaging Director
Riccardo Bindi
[email protected] is a portfolio manager for the European Equity team. He joined Morgan Stanley in 2006 and has 18 years investment experience. Prior to joining the firm, Riccardo was a European equity portfolio manager at Société GénéraleAsset Management. Prior to that, Riccardo was at Lombard Odier DarierHentsch where he was responsible for European small/mid cap equities. Riccardo received a B.Sc. in economics from University of Bath and an M.Sc. in economics from University of London. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and is a member of UKSIP and the CFA Institute.
Executive Director Executive Director
Jonathan Day
[email protected] is a portfolio manager for the European Equity team. He joined Morgan Stanley in 2006 and has 15 years of investment experience. Prior to joining the firm, Jonathan was a European equity portfolio manager at Société GénéraleAsset Management. Prior to that, he was a fund manager on the European desk at Morgan Stanley Quilter, responsible for Europe ex-U.K. and U.K. balanced accounts. Jonathan holds the ASIP designation and is an associate member of the CFA Institute.
105780
[email protected] is head of the European Equity team. He joined Morgan Stanley in 2006 and has 18 years investment experience. Prior to joining the firm, Matthew was a director at Société Générale Asset Management where he managed Pan European, Europe Ex-U.K. and Eurozoneequity strategies. Previously, Matthew was a partner in Mont Blanc, a European hedge fund. Before that, he was a senior fund manager on the European desk at Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch where he was responsible for their largest institutional clients. Matthew received a B.A. in modern languages (French and German) from King’s College, London, and an M.A. in European Management from Cranfield Business School.
66Page
The Team
Jaymeen PatelExecutive Director
[email protected] is a portfolio manager for the European Equity team. He joined Morgan Stanley in 1998 and has 15 years of industry experience. Prior to joining the firm, he held positions at Fidelity Investments, State Street Bank and Trust Company and Salomon Brothers Asset Management. Jaymeen received a double honors B.Eng. and B.Comm. with language from the University of Birmingham, and an M.B.A. from the University of Warwick.
142502
Luca ArmandolaVice President
[email protected] is a portfolio specialist for the European Equity team. He joined Morgan Stanley in 2003 and has 10 years industry experience. Prior to this, Luca was a member of the Italian sales team at MSIM. Prior to joining the firm, Luca worked in sales at INVESCO Italia. Luca received a Laurea in business administration from Universita degli Studi di Pavia, Italy and a M.A. in corporate finance at University California Berkeley. Luca holds the Investment Management Certificate (IMC) and he is member of the CFA UK Institute
67Page
Compliance Disclosure
For Business and Professional Investors Only and Not To Be Used With The General Public
This financial promotion was issued and approved in the UK by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited, 25 Cabot Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 4QA, authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, for distribution to Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties only and must not be relied upon or acted upon by Retail Clients (each as defined in the UK Financial Services Authority’s rules). This communication is only intended for and will be only distributed to persons resident in jurisdictions where such distribution or availability would not be contrary to local laws or regulations. Applications for shares in any Morgan Stanley INVF fund should not be made without first consulting the current Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus, Annual Report and Semi-Annual Report (“Offering Documents”), or other documents available in your local jurisdiction which are available free of charge at the address above. The document has been prepared solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The material contained herein has not been based on a consideration of any individual client circumstances and is not investment advice, nor should it be construed in any way as tax, accounting, legal or regulatory advice. To that end, investors should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice as to tax consequences, before making any investment decision. Except as otherwise indicated herein, the views and opinions expressed herein are those of Morgan Stanley Investment Management Growth Team, are based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that subsequently becomes available or circumstances existing, or changes occurring, after the date hereof. This communication is a marketing communication. It is not a product of Morgan Stanley’s Research Department and should not be regarded as a research recommendation.
Any index referred to herein is the intellectual property (including registered trademarks) of the applicable licensor. Any product based on an index is in no way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by the applicable licensor and it shall not have any liability with respect thereto. All information contained herein is proprietary and is protected under copyright law.
Risk Considerations:
There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline and that the value of portfolio shares may therefore be less than what you paid for them. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in this portfolio. Please be aware that this portfolio is subject to certain additional risks. Equity. In general equity securities values also fluctuate in response to activities specific to a company. Foreign and emerging markets. Investments in foreign markets entail special risks such as currency, political, economic, and market risks. The risks of investing in emerging-market countries are greater than the risks generally associated with foreign investments. Small- and mid-cap stocks. Stocks of small- and medium-sized companies entail special risks, such as limited product lines, markets, and financial resources, and greater market volatility than securities of larger, more- established companies. Nondiversification. Nondiversified Portfolios often invest in a more limited number of issuers. Assuch, changes in the financial condition or market value of a single issuer may cause greater volatility.
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