[Ms. Schippa] What We Can Learn From Measuring Peace

www.economicsandpeace.org

What We Can Learn From Measuring Peace

Camilla SchippaInstitute for Economics and Peace

Global Peace ConventionKuala Lumpur, 6 December 2013


What do we know about PEACE?


Why Measure Peace?

Never been done before

Peace is poorly understood

Peace should and can be measured

Through measuring peace its texture can be analysed

Without measurement, it is hard to know whether our actions are helping or hindering us in achieving our goals


Defining Peace

Peace is more than the absence of war

Defined peace as the “Absence of Violence”

This definition allows for measurements of both internal and external peacefulness

“Positive Peace” is uncovered via the correlation of other data sets and indexes


The Global Peace Index

Now in its seventh year

Ranks 162 nations (up from 121 in 2007)

According to their relative states of peace

Using 22 indicators weighted on a 1-5 scale

Developed by the Institute for Economics & Peace

Guided and overseen by a Panel of International Experts

With data collected and collated by the Economist Intelligence Unit


22 Indicators

5 measures of ongoing domestic and international conflict such as: number of conflicts fought and number of deaths from organised conflict

10 measures of societal safety and security including: number of displaced people, terrorist activity, number of homicides, number of jailed population

7 measures of militarisation such as: military expenditure, number of armed service personnel, ease of access to small weapons

Overall score weighted 60% for internal peace & 40% for external peace.


GPI MAP

Global Peace Index 2013


Six-Year Trends 2008 - 2013

Publication Year

GPI average Score

Countries whose peace increased

Countries whose peace decreased

Countries with no score change

2008 1.958

2009 1.995 52 84 2

2010 2.025 58 83 2

2011 2.038 79 69 0

2012 2.046 73 80 0

2013 2.057 73 73 121 being peaceful, 5 being un-peaceful

The GPI score deteriorated by 5% over the period


2008 compared to 2013

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

GPI scorings bands

% o

f G

PI co

untr

ies

wit

h s

core

in t

hat

band

Longer and bigger tail= less peaceful bottom ten

Split = unequal distribution of peace

The bottom ten nations have become less peaceful, Afghanistan less peaceful in 2013 than Iraq in 2008

--- 2008 --- 2013


The fall in global peacefulness is largely driven by changes in internal peacefulness

External

Overall

Internal

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18

Global Peace Index Score - 2008 to 2013, increases in score reflect decrease in peace


Number of deaths from organised internal conflict have significantly increased

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

World Total Number of Deaths from Internal Conflict

37,269 114,705 112,999 96,009 128,178 178,287

Source: IISS Armed Conflict Database; EIU data,


The Pillars of Peace

“The attitudes, institutions and structures that encourage and sustain a peaceful society”


The Pillars of PeaceThe attitudes, institutions and structures that sustain a peaceful society

Analysed over 4,700 variables covering:

o The macro-economy; o Social relationships and attitudes; o Economic and social development; o Economic and social integration; o The functioning and structure of government.


The Pillars of Peace


Positive Peace Index Indicators

INSERT MAP

Positive Peace 2013


Negative Peace versus Positive Peace


Weak Pillars = Greater Vulnerability

Big fallers with positive peace deficits in 2008:

Syria RwandaMadagascarEgypt


IEP has developed a methodology to calculate the:

- Global Cost of Violence Containment

The economic activity that is related to the consequences or prevention of violence where the violence is directed against people or property.

Global Monetary Value of Peace


Estimated to be US$9.46 trillion or 11% of Gross World Product in 2012

US$25 billion per day

US$1,300 per person, per year

Global Monetary Value of Peace


Violence Containment is larger than…


Virtuous Cycle of Reducing Violence and Violence Containment Spending

[Ms. Schippa] What We Can Learn From Measuring Peace

Spiritual

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