MR Summit 2015: Predicting the future for the FCA
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Transcript of MR Summit 2015: Predicting the future for the FCA
MR SUMMIT:PREDICTING THE FUTURE FOR THE FCA
JAMES HOPKINS, CRITICAL RESEARCHEMMA ROBERTS, FINANCIAL CONDUCT AUTHORITY
MR SUMMIT: PREDICTING THE FUTURE FOR THE FCA
CONSUMER CREDITRegulated by the Office of Fair Trading until 2014
An estimated 80,000 had consumer credit licences
FCA took over on 01 April 2014
Who are these firms?
Sizing - how many of them are there?
Comms - what do they already know about the
change?
MR SUMMIT: PREDICTING THE FUTURE FOR THE FCA
A HIGHLY DIVERSE POPULATIONMoney lenders Banks Credit unions Pawnbrokers
Non financial firms Furniture shops Golf clubs Dentists Car dealersBrokers Financial advisers
MR SUMMIT: PREDICTING THE FUTURE FOR THE FCA
RESOURCE PLANNING
How many firms could the FCA expect to be regulating from 01 April 2014?
MR SUMMIT: PREDICTING THE FUTURE FOR THE FCA
WELL BRIEFED INTERVIEWERS
Provided feedback on questions and flow
Vital for establishing underlying views
Inconsistencies identified
Call-backs to establish real intentions
WHAT WAS OUR APPROACH
GOOD QUESTIONNAIRE DESIGN
Designed to cater for the diversity of firms
Included sufficient background to educate
Enough days timetabled to allow iterations
THOROUGH PILOT FEEDBACK
Ensured the two objectives did not conflict
Follow up interviews to check understanding
Best question sequence and flow assessed
On the face of it, a very typical telephone research methodology …
MR SUMMIT: PREDICTING THE FUTURE FOR THE FCA
ESTIMATING A NEW POPULATIONThree additional steps, first to establish a new population, then to ensure we had valid
dataINVESTIGATIVE
CALLS
Calls to firms with a valid phone number
Results combined with desk research
“Probability of trading” calculated
Overall trading population of 62,000
DESK RESEARCH
Paid-for company checking services
Were the uncontactable firms trading or not
VALIDITY CHECKING
Used OFT licence retention data
Profiled for interviewed and refused
Recalibration for non-response errors
MR SUMMIT: PREDICTING THE FUTURE FOR THE FCA
Initial forecast Final forecast Actual outcome40000
42000
44000
46000
48000
50000
52000
51000
49700 49400
A FINAL ADJUSTMENT
Very 95%
Quite 90%
Not very 0%
Not at all 0%
Adjustment algorithm
+0.6%
MR SUMMIT: PREDICTING THE FUTURE FOR THE FCA
CLEAR MARKETING OBJECTIVES
Knowing we had c.50,000 firms to target drove many of the budget
decisions
We knew now the scale of the marketing required:
Communicate effectively with 50,000 firms
Reach all corners of a very diverse audience
Raise awareness of registering with the new regulator
Explain the severe consequence of inaction
Encourage a spread of response over time
MR SUMMIT: PREDICTING THE FUTURE FOR THE FCA
NEW STRATEGY FOR THE FCAMoving away from literature heavy marketing Engaging with trade bodies and trade press Radio advertising National press Direct mail campaign Regular reminder emails
Behavioural nudges alongside traditional brand building
Discount period to encourage early applications
MR SUMMIT: PREDICTING THE FUTURE FOR THE FCA
SOME GROUPS NOT ENGAGED
Some unaware of the consequences of missing the deadline
Others were leaving it to the last minute
Assumption that the transfer was only aimed at financial services firms
FINE TUNING THE CAMPAIGNFurther research showed the campaign was working well, but needed fine-tuning …
SECOND WAVE CONDUCTED
Urgency of language increased
Trade press engaged to target specific sectors such as estate agents, builders, motor trader
FCA WAS MAIN INFO SOURCE
Further research showed the FCA was the primary source of information
By the end of the campaign, awareness of the need to act had risen from 21% to 98%
21%
98%