Mr Hazrat MirChief Meteorologist PMD

PMD is extensively involved in meteringand modeling the water resource

Since Meteorology is the fundamentalbasis of Integrated Water ResourcesManagement, PMD is implementing toolsand technologies for effective use ofGEOSS data in water sector

Rationale

In line with GOALS of GEOSS-AWCI,new projects have been initiated incooperation with internationalagencies to improve predictability,and interpret the informationapplicable to various waterenvironments in Pakistan

The outcomes are contributing tomitigate water-related disastersthrough effective Early Warnings.

Rationale

4

Projects related to Water Sector

IFAS Project Phase I

IFAS Project Phase II

GLOF Project Phase I

GLOF Project Phase II

Specialized Medium Range Forecasting Center (SMRFC) Project

Drought Monitoring & Early Warning Project

Pak Flood Hazard Map

Flood 2010Flood 2011Flood 2012Flood 2013Flood 2014Floods 2010-2014

Cumulative Flood ExtentFlood Vulnerability

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Analysis Hydrological Condition/Parameter

Rainfall data from PMD stationsRainfall, Discharge data, WAPDA, Irrigation, PCIWRim Station and below Rim Station data of all rivers(Hydrological Form)Out put of FEWS & CLS ModelOut put of PMD developed ModelGFS ModelLatest  all Wx/Doppler Radar DataLatest Satellite Imagery

Further TechniqueStatistical Technique & Empirical Technique

Conference

Group discussion of 6‐7 Meteorologist and Hydrologist

Analysis of Meteorological Condition

Analysis of different Wx Charts,(Surface, upper, 0000UTC to onwardas desire)Study analyzed Wx charts and different models through their websitesStudy the HRM Model products(PMD website)Study the GFS Model & other models

Issuance of Flood Forecast Bulletins

Bulletin A & Bulletin B (For next 24‐hours)Early Warning: different Significant Warning/Advisory as and when required for a particular area

DisseminationDissemination Through

Uploaded on website5‐fax machinesPMD’s website (Click Flood Update)Most concerned persons informed on telephonesSMS to very ConcernsLive beeper on Television and RadioIn Camera interview on TV etcDaily Press ConferenceAttended meeting with local Govt. on Critical Situations

Concerned AgenciesFFC (Federal Flood Commission)NDMA(National Disaster Management Authority)Prime Minister/President ReliefCommissionerIrrigation DepartmentWAPDAPak. ArmyAll Provincial Govt. etc and 300 agencies

Media for Public & Concerned Authorities also•Electronic MediaPrint MediaRadio

Preparation and Dissemination of Flood Forecast(15th June to 15th October)

6

World largest contiguous Irrigation System(US$ 300 Million); (RIVERS OF PAKISTAN)

EASTERN RIVERS

Population 180   MCultivable Area 73   MaIrrigated Area 36   MaMajor Storage Reservoirs        3Barrages 19Main Canals 45Link Canals 12Small Dams (approx 3 MAF)   140

WESTERN RIVERS

Pak GLOF Hazard Map

GLOF Vulnerability

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Drought/Environment Monitoring & Early Warning Centre

Regional Drought Centre

National Centre for Drought/ Environment Monitoring

Project Components

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Pak Drought Hazard Map

Drought Vulnerability

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12

Satellite Products being used for Drought Monitoring

Global Climate Impact on Pakistan

Variable Intensity Inconsistent  Behaviour of Monsoon

Melting Glaciers

Extreme Climate Events

Heavy Downpours

Societal Impacts

Northern Areas

Summers are Becoming Hotter

High Intensity Rains in Short Duration

Displacements

Annual Mean Temperatures (°C) Trends 

16

17

18

19

1901

1904

1907

1910

1913

1916

1919

1922

1925

1928

1931

1934

1937

1940

1943

1946

1949

1952

1955

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

Tempe

rature

Years

Pakistan

Rate of Change = 0.10°C per Decade

• 1901‐2014

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Climate Change Trends over Pakistan

• The slope of the mean annual temperature over Pakistanduring the 48‐year period 1960‐2007 was found as:

1901‐2000 0.06 °C per decade1960‐2007 0.24 °C per decade

• The rate of increase is higher than the rate of increaseobserved globally

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y (o C)

Area Weighted Anomaly 10Years Moving Average

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.019

01

1905

1909

1913

1917

1921

1925

1929

1933

1937

1941

1945

1949

1953

1957

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

2009

Pakistan_Average Annual Rainfall (1901-2010)

All_Pakistan_Rainfall_Annual 1901-1954 1955-2010 10 区間移動平均 (All_Pakistan_Rainfall_Annual)

y = 0.011x - 0.7871

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.519

0119

0419

0719

1019

1319

1619

1919

2219

2519

2819

3119

3419

3719

4019

4319

4619

4919

5219

5519

5819

6119

6419

6719

7019

7319

7619

7919

8219

8519

8819

9119

9419

9720

0020

0320

0620

09

Ave

_Tem

pera

ture

Average Temperature of Northern Areas of Pakistan (1901-2009) based on Climate Research Unit (CRU data

Total Change in 109 yrs = 1.1 °C

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1981‐85 1986‐90 1991‐95 1996‐00 2001‐05 2006‐10

Freq

uency

Period

Max Temp. >40 °C

6 days 5 days

6 days

8 days

10 days

9 days

Emissions – where Pakistan Stands on the climate front?

One of the lowest per capita emitters

Impacts–Pakistan Vulnerabilities analysis in the context  of climate impacts

Yet one of the worst victims of climate change 

& best examples of climate injusticeMaplecroft vulnerability index places us in High/Extreme category /Columbia Univ indx does the same (http://ciesin.columbia.edu/data/climate)

Water Security• Water Sector: Current Status and Vulnerability

– Pakistan is extremely short of fresh water resources.

– Water‐stressed country water availability headingtowards less than 1000 cubic meter/y by 2035 (WB2006).

– Pakistan’s primary sources of water are rainfall (50maf ) by monsoon and westerly winds and riverinflows (141 maf) in the Indus River System fed byglaciers and snowmelt from the Hindukush‐Karakoram‐Himalayas.

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Water Security (Con)– The shares of main contributing rivers to the IRS in Pakistan are:1. Indus: 44%,2. Chenab: 19%,3. Jhelum: 16%,4. Kabul: 16% and Others: 5%.

• The per capita availability of river water, which was 5,650 cubic meter/y in 1951

• and 1000 cubic meter/y in 2010, is expected to decline further to 800 cubic meter/y till 2026.

Condition of Per Capita Availability with expected increased Rainfall by 2025

Source: WWF

Eastern Rivers Ravi and Sutlej component at Balloki and Sulamanki

R2 = 0.56

0

7

14

21

28

35

42

1961

-62

1963

-64

1965

-66

1967

-68

1969

-70

1971

-72

1973

-74

1975

-76

1977

-78

1979

-80

1981

-82

1983

-84

1985

-86

1987

-88

1989

-90

1991

-92

1993

-94

1995

-96

1997

-98

1999

-00

2001

-02

2003

-04

Ann

ual f

low

s in

maf

Ravi + Sutlej

Decrease of Eastern Inflow from India – as a result of Indus Water Treaty  

Water Security• Pakistan’s rivers are predominantly  fed by Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalyanglaciers. These  are receding due to climate change

Pakistan’s Cryospheric AssetsNumberof Glaciers

Area of Glaciers (km2)

Volume of Ice (km3)

Ranges

7259 11780 2066 HimalayaKarakoramHindukush

Response of Glacial Resources to Climate 

Change

Siachen Glacier has retreated about 2 Km in 23 years

LANDSAT

14‐07‐2013

LANDSAT

15‐07‐1979

LANDSAT

13‐09‐2015

Satellite image and resent studies show 2.9 Km damage to ice Stream on the Batura

glacier in 37 yrs.

PMD

Planning and Design

Construction

Management

Role of PMD in Water Sector Development & Management

ISSUES

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• Existing Capability? Weather prediction capability limited due to lack of met-data and

advanced technology for aviation services (wind profilers)• Hydrological Data? Lack of real time hydrological data (Radars, AWS, Telemetric…). Trans-boundary data for eastern rivers not available. Lack of GLOF monitoring & Flash Flood Warning System• Seismic Network? Lacking in Tsunami warning system & Seismic monitoring network• Human Resource? Limited Career Progression & Retention of qualified staff (PhD) No capacity development with new & advanced technology No incentives (SPS & Research Allowance) for Scientists and field

force at remote areas• Awareness? Lack of awareness due to dissemination system (TV, Radio,

Cell...)• Cost-Benefit Ratio? Climate Change - Investment of One dime in advance can save

36 dime.

Pakistan Meteorological Department

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SN Description Remarks

Radars •12 New•5 Replacement

Provinces

Met Data

(Observation Network)

• 40 New, 430 AWS•10 Agro-met•8 Wind Profilers (Aviation)

Federal Govt

Flood Warning Centers

Regional Centers

GLOF

Flash Flood WC

• 5 Centers (Provincial)

• 20 Stations in GB & Chitral

• 8 Vulnerable Sites (Hill Torrents)

Federal Govt

Seismic Data 10 Stations(Tsunami & Micro-seismicity)

Federal Govt

Awareness TV/FM Radio/Cell Federal Govt

Technology HPCC (High Power Computer Clustered)

Federal Govt

Capacity Development Scientists skill according to new & advanced technology

Federal Govt

Rs. MillionSummary of RequiremenPakistan Meteorological Department

Thank you!

UNDERSTAND the Climate Risk

COMMUNICATE the Climate Risk