MPR 2009 February 11-02-2009. Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly...
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Transcript of MPR 2009 February 11-02-2009. Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly...
MPR 2009 February
11-02-2009
Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
790%75%50%Repo rate
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
590%75%50%CPI
Source: Sweden statistics and the Riksbank
Figure 3. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
90%75%50%GDP
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 4 Economic indicators in the Euro area
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
-10-8-6-4-202468
10121416
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10667074788286909498102106110114118
OECD Composite Leading Indicators (left scale)
European Commission Economics Sentiment (right scale)
Sources: European Commission and OECD
Figure 5. Consumer confidence in the USAUniversity of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, index
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115Consumer confidence
Mean 1952-2009
Sources: European Commission and OECD
6. Liquidation and redundancy notices in SwedenThousands
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 080
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22Liquidation (right scale)Redundancy notices
Sources: ITPS and Statistics Sweden
Figure 7. Companies' new borrowing from Swedish banks
Billion SEK respective annual percentage change
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
jul-06 jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 8. Policy rates Per cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8SwedenUSAUnited KingdomNorwayEuro area
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 9. GDP abroadTCW-weighted, annual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Source: ConsensusNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 10. Consensus and the Riksbank’s forecasts for GDP growth in 2009
Annual percentage change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
08jan 08mar 08maj 08jul 08sep 08nov 09jan-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Japan Euro areaUSA AsiaEastern Europe Latin America
Source: Consensus
Figure 11. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel, future price
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Oil price, outcome
Futures. average up to and including 4 February
Futures December
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank
Figure 12. Commodity pricesUSD, index, year 2000=100
100
150
200
250
300
350
04 05 06 07 08 09100
150
200
250
300
350Food
Metals
Other agricultural products
Total
Source: The Economist
Figure 13. GDP for the USA and the euro area
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8USA forecast
Euro area forecast
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 14. Comparison of recovery following various recessions, GDP USA
Level, Index=100 in the quarter preceding the beginning of the recession
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1694
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
1122008 Q 1
2001 Q4
1990 Q3
1973 Q4
Mean (from 1947)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research and the Riksbank
Figure 15. Comparison of recovery following various recessions, GDP Euro
areaLevel, Index=100 in the quarter preceding the beginning
of the recession
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1694
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
1101974 Q3
1980 Q1
1992 Q1
2008 Q2
1980
Source: Eurostat, OECD and the Riksbank
Seasonally-adjusted data and net figures
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0940
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
JapanChinaRussiaIndiaSouth Korea (right scale)
Sources: NTC Economics and the Federation of Korean Industries
Figure 17. Exports and new export ordersAnnual percentage changes, seasonally-adjusted data
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Orders received, export marketExports
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Three-month moving average.
Figure 18. GDP Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised
terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8DecemberFebruary
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 19. Consensus and the Riksbank’s forecasts for GDP growth in Sweden 2009
at different points in time Annual percentage change
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan 08 Mar 08 May 08 Jul 08 Sep 08 Nov 08 Jan 09-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0TheRiksbankConsensus
Sources: Consensus and the Riksbank
Figure 20. Development of GDP in different regions
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
07 08 09 10 11 12-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
SwedenUSAEuro areaTCW
Note. TCW entails weighted GDP for Sweden's main trading partners.
Figure 21. Comparison of recovery following various recessions, GDP SwedenLevel, Index=100 in the quarter preceding the beginning
of the recession
90
95
100
105
110
115
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1690
95
100
105
110
1152008 Q12000 Q31996 Q11990 Q2
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 22. TCW exchange rate Index, 18.192=100
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12120
125
130
135
140
145
150TCW-index
TCW-forecast February
TCW-forecast December
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 23. ExportsQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised
terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20DecemberFebruary
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 24. Household’s disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio
Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16Consumption (left scale)Disposable income (left scale)Saving ratio (right scale)
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 25. Labour force and number of employed
Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 123800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000Labour force 15-74 year
Labour force 16-64 year
Employed 15-74 year
Employed 16-64 year
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 26. Employment rateEmployment as a percentage of the population, 16-64
year, seasonally-adjusted data
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
80 85 90 95 00 05 10 1570
72
74
76
78
80
82
84Employment rate
December
February
Source: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 27. UnemployedPercentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 120
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Unemployment 16-64 year
Unemployment 15-74 year
February
December
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 28. Actual and trend productivity growth in the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5HP-trendForecast, DecemberForecast, February
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 29. Unit labour costs for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7Labour costs per hourProductivityUnit labour costs
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 30. Estimated gapsPercentage deviation from the HP trend
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5GDP
Hours worked
Employment
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 31. CPI, CPIF and CPIXAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5CPICPIFCPIF excl. energy
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 32. Repo rate forecasts on different assumptions
Per cent, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
1
2
3
4
5February
December
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 33. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4Real repo rate
February
December
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 34. CPIAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
590%
75%
50%
February
December
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 35. CPIFAnnual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
1
2
3
4February
December
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 36. Repo rate assumptionsPer cent, quarterly averages
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0Main scenario
Higher repo rate
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 37. GDPAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Higher repo rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 38. CPIAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5Higher repo rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 39. Production gap (GDP)Percentage deviation from the HP trend
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Higher repo rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 40. Labour market gap (hours worked)
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Higher repo rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 41. GDP abroadTCW-weighted, annual percentage change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Main scenarioWeaker growthStronger growth
Sources: National sources and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 42. GDPAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Weaker growthStronger growthMain scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 43. Production gap (GDP)Percentage deviation from the HP trend
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Weaker growthStronger growthMain scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 44. Labour market gap (hours worked)
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Weaker growth
Stronger growth
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 45. CPIAnnual percentage change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Weaker growthStronger growthMain scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 46. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0Main scenarioWeaker growthStronger growth
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 47. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Main scenarioWeaker growth
Stronger growth
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 48. TCW-weighted exchange rateIndex, 1992-11-18=100
120
125
130
135
140
145
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12120
125
130
135
140
145Weaker growthStronger growthMain scenario
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 49. TCW-weighted exchange rateIndex, 1992-11-18=100
120
125
130
135
140
145
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12120
125
130
135
140
145Higher cost pressures
Main scenario
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 50. GDPAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5Higher cost pressures
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Productivity Annual percentage change
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0Higher cost pressures
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 52. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0Main scenario
Higher cost pressures
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 53. CPIAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5Higher cost pressures
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 54. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0Main scenario
Higher cost pressures
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 55. Long-term interest ratesPer cent
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
04 05 06 07 08 090.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Sweden
Euro area (Germany)
USA
Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
Figure 56. Difference between interbank rates and government bond rates (TED
spread)Basis points
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
jan 07 apr 07 jul 07 okt 07 jan 08 apr 08 jul 08 okt 08 jan 090
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500Euro area
USA
United Kingdom
Sweden
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank.
Figure 57. Difference between interbank rates and expected monetary policy
(Basis- spread)Basis points
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
jan 07 apr 07 jul 07 okt 07 jan 08 apr 08 jul 08 okt 08 jan 090
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400Sweden
Euro area
USA
United Kingdom
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank.
Figure 58. Monetary policy in the Euro area and the USA
Per cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
1
2
3
4
5
6ECBECB 2009-02-04ECB 2008-12-01FEDFED 2009-02-04FED 2008-12-01
Sources: ECB and Federal reserve
Figure 59. Monetary policy expectations in Sweden according to money market
participantsPer cent
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Repo rate
Forward rate 4 February
Forward rate 28 November
Survey, Prospera averages, 14January 2009-02-06
Sources: Retuers EcoWin, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank
Figure 60. Stock market movementsIndex, 04.01.99=100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220Euro area (Euro Stoxx)
Sweden (OMXS)
USA (S&P 500)
Sources: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 61. Interest rates in SwedenPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
jan 07 apr 07 jul 07 okt 07 jan 08 apr 08 jul 08 okt 08 jan 090
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Interbank rate
Repo rate
Mortgages – average of listed rates
Mortgages – rate according to financial market statistics
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, SBAB, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 62. Long-term interest rate Per cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
04 05 06 07 08 090
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
SBAB 5 years
Mortgage bond 5 years
Mortgage rate 5 years
Government bond 5 years
Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. Mortgage institution rate for over 5 years, new contracts
Figure 63. Housing pricesAnnual percentage change
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16House prices
P/T-value
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 64. Lending to Swedish households and non-financial companies
Annual percentage change
-5
0
5
10
15
20
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10-5
0
5
10
15
20Households
Non-financial companies
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Lending from monetary financial institutions
Figure 65. Money SupplyAnnual percentage change
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09-5
0
5
10
15
20
25M0M2M3
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Different definitions of monetary baseBillion SEK
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
jan-08 apr-08 jul-08 okt-08 jan-090
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400The banks' holdings of Riksbank certificates
The banks' deposit at the Riksbank
Banknotes and coins in circulation
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 67. Exchange ratesSEK per Euro and dollar
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
jan 06 jul 06 jan 07 jul 07 jan 08 jul 08 jan 095
6
7
8
9
10
11
12SEK/EUR
SEK/USD
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 68. Transport costs indicator (Baltic Dry Index)
Index, 1995=1000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
85 90 95 00 05
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Baltic Dry Index
Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. The Baltic Dry Index measures the price of transporting commodities by sea.
Figure 69. World Trade IndexIndex
0
50
100
150
200
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090
50
100
150
200
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Figure 70. Exports (current prices)USD, index January 2007=100
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
jan07
apr07
jul07
okt07
jan08
apr08
jul08
okt08
jan09
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160ChinaGermanyUSA (import)France
Figure 71. Purchasing managers’ index, export orders in manufacturing sector
Net figures, seasonally-adjusted
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0920
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
GermanyEuro areaFranceItaly
Source: NTC Economics
Figure 72. Employment and private consumption in the United States
Annual percentage change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Private consumption
Employment
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of commerce
Figure 73. Capacity utilisation in the manufacturing industry
Per cent
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 0974
76
78
80
82
84
86
Source: DG Ecfin
Figure 74. Purchasing managers’ index in the industry and the service sector in the
euro area Net figures
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0930
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Industry
Service sector
Source: NTC Economics
Figure 75. Lending to companies and households in the euro area
Annual percentage change
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16Households
Non-financial companies
Source: ECB
Figure 76. Government bonds in various euro countries (difference compared to
Germany)Percentage points
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0Sweden Italy
Greece Ireland
Spain UK
Source: Reuters EcoWinNote: Government bonds with approximately ten years left to maturity.
Figure 77. Consumer pricesAnnual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6USAOECDEuro area
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and OECD
Figure 78. CPI excluding energy and foodAnnual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090
1
2
3
4
USAOECDEuro area
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and OECD
Figure 79. HICP for the Euro areaAnnual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090
1
2
3
4
5Excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco
Excluding energy, food and unprocessed food
Total
Source: Eurostat
Figure 80. Economic Tendency Indicator
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0960
70
80
90
100
110
120
Economic Tendency Indicator
Mean (+/- one standard deviation)
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 81. Confidence indicators in the business sector
Seasonally adjusted net figures, monthly observations
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Manufacturing industryConstruction industryRetail tradePrivate service industries
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 82. Retail sales and household consumption
Annual percentage change
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Households’ total consumptionHouseholds’ consumption of retail goodsRetail sales
Source: Statistics SwedenNote. Non-calendar-adjusted data.
Figure 83. Household financial wealth and saving
Per cent of disposable income
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14Net assets (left)
Financial saving (right)
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 84. Households expectation for the future
Net figures
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Confidence indicator
Unemployment
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 85. Gross fixed capital formationAnnual percentage change
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
HousingBusiness sector excluding housingPublic authorities
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 86. Capital utilisation in industryPer cent, seasonally adjusted data
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 1075
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95Statistics Sweden, actual capacity utilisationNIER, current capacity utilisation
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) and Statistics Sweden
Figure 87. Foreign trade with goods in fixed prices
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20ImportExport
Source: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Three-month moving averages.
Figure 88. New export ordersNet figures and annual percentage change
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Orders, NIER (Net figures)
Orders, Statistics Sweden (Annual percentage change)
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) and Statistics Sweden
Figure 89. General government net lending
Per cent of GDP
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Striped bars represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 90. New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy notices
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 100
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24New vacancies (left scale)
Unfilled vacancies (left scale)
Redundancy notices (rightscale)
Source: Employment service
Figure 91. Hiring plans and number of employed in the business sector
Balance and annual percentage change
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30Expectations
Outcome
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 92. Proportion of firms reporting a shortage of labour
Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80Manufacturing industry
Retail trade
Private sector industries
Business sector
Construction sector
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 93. Full utilisation of companies’ resources, private service industries
Proportion of companies
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
04 05 06 07 08 090
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 94. Wages in the business sectorAnnual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 080
1
2
3
4
5
6
IndustryService sectorsConstruction sectors
Sources: National Mediation Office and the RiksbankNote. Three-month moving average.
Diagram 95. Expectations of inflation one year ahead
Annual percentage change
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0Households (NIER)
Companies (NIER)
Prospera (all)
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Prospera Research AB
Figure 96. All agents’ expectations of inflation one, two and three years ahead
Annual percentage change
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.51 year
2 year
5 year
Source: Prospera Research AB
Figure 97. Food, energy and mortgage costs in the CPI
Annual percentage change
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Mortgage costs (4.5 %)Energy (8.9 %)Food (16.8 %)
Source: Statistics SwedenNote: The weight of CPI of the respective components is given in brackets.
Figure 98. Prices of goods and services in the CPI
Annual percentage change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4Services (43.5 %)
Goods excluding energy and food (26.3 %)
Source: Statistics Sweden Note: The weight in the CPI of the respective components is given in brackets.
Figure 99. Different measures of underlying inflationAnnual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09-1
0
1
2
3
4
5TRIM85CPIFCPIF excluding energyUND24CPIX
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B1. International comparison between central banks' balance sheet
totalsIndex, January 2007=100
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
jan 07 apr 07 jul 07 okt 07 jan 08 apr 08 jul 08 okt 08 jan 0950
100
150
200
250
300
350
400ECB
Bank of England
Fed
The Riksbank
Sources: The respective central banks
Figure B2. Central banks' balance sheet totals as per cent of GDP
Per cent
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
jan-07 apr-07 jul-07 okt-07 jan-08 apr-08 jul-08 okt-08 jan-090
5
10
15
20
25
30ECB
Bank of England
Fed
The Riksbank
Sources: National sources, Statistics Sweden and the respective central banks
Figure B3. New lending to households and companies
Annual percentage change
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
jul-06
okt-06
jan-07
apr-07
jul-07
okt-07
jan-08
apr-08
jul-08
okt-08
jan-09
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90Households
Companies
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure B4. Trade-weighted exchange rates (daily listings)
Index, 01.07.2007=100
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
Jul 07 Sep 07 Nov 07 Jan 08 Mar 08 May 08 Jul 08 Sep 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 090.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
NZD
NOK
AUD
SEK
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure B5. Implicit volatility in US shares, VIX (volatility index)
Per cent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure B6. TED spreads in the USA, the Euro area and in Sweden
Basis points
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
The Euro area(Germany)
Sweden
USA
Sources: Bloomberg and Reuters EcoWin
Figure B7. The spread between corporate bonds in the USA and corresponding US
government ratesBasis points
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2100
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2100
Aaa Bbb High Yield
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure B8. Unweighted average of development of AUD, NZD, NOK and SEK during various crises
Monthly data, t=0 when the crisis broke out, index=1 when t-1 by respective crisis
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
T=-2 T=0 T=2 T=4 T=6 T=8 T=10 T=12 T=14 T=16 T=18 T=20 T=22 T=24
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
Russia/LTCM crisis
The IT crash
11 September
Present crisis
Source: Reuters EcoWinNote: Index based on trade weighted exchange rates for respective currency.
Figure B9. Development of TCW during various crises and forecast from MPR09:1
Monthly data, t=0 when the crisis broke out, index=1 when t-1 by respective crisis. The broken line represent the Riksbank's
forecast.
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
T=-2 T=0 T=2 T=4 T=6 T=8 T=10 T=12 T=14 T=16 T=18 T=20 T=22 T=24
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
Russia/LTCM crisis
The IT crash
11 September
Present crisis
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Table 1. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
2008 2009 2010 2011
CPI 3.4 (3.5) -0.5 (1.2) 1.6 (1.5) 3.2 (2.1)
CPIX 2.7 (2.7) 1.6 (1.7) 1.6 (1.4) 1.8 (1.7)
CPIX excl. energy 2.0 (2.0) 2.2 (2.1) 1.8 (1.6) 1.7 (1.4)
CPIF 2.5 (2.5) 1.3 (1.3) 1.2 (1.1) 1.5 (1.4)
Table 2. Inflation, 12-month
average Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Mar-08 Mar -09 Mar -10 Mar -11 Mar -12
CPI 3.4 -0.1 (1.8) 1.4 (1.4) 2.9 (2.0) 3.3 CPIX 2.6 1.9 (2.0) 1.7 (1.4) 1.8 (1.7) 1.9
CPIX excl. energy 2.2 2.0 (2.1) 1.9 (1.7) 1.7 (1.6) 1.9
CPIF 2.3 1.6 (1.6) 1.3 (1.1) 1.5 (1.4) 1.6
Table 3. Key figures, annual averageAnnual percentage change unless otherwise specified
Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
* Percentage of labor force
2008 2009 2010 2011
GDP, world 3.4(3.5) 0.4(1.9) 2.6 (3.2) 3.9
Crude oil price Brent, USD/barrel 97 (98) 50 (60) 59 (71) 63 (77) Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100
127.2 (127.2)
140.0 (134.3)
134.5 (128.8)
131.9 (126.9)
Repo rate, per cent 4.1 (4.1) 1.0 (2.0) 0.9 (2.3) 2.2 (2.9)
General government net lending, percentage of GDP 2.3 (2.7) -1.7 (-0.2) -2.6 (-0.8) -1.3 (-0.1) GDP 0.7 (0.9) -1.6 (-0.5) 1.7 (2.2) 3.2 (3.0) GDP, calender-adjusted 0.4 (0.6) -1.4 (-0.4) 1.4 (1.9) 3.2 (3.0)
No. of employed, 15-74 years 1.2 (1.2) -2.0 (-1.3) -1.6 (-1.3) 0.0 (0.2)
Unemployement* 6.2 (6.2) 8.0 (7.4) 9.1 (8.4) 9.0 (8.2)
Hourly wage in economy as a whole 4.3 (4.2) 3.5 (3.6) 2.9 (3.2) 3.1 (3.4)
Table 4. Repo rate forecastPer cent, quarterly averages
Source: The Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Q4 2008 Q 1 2009 Q 2 2009 Q 1 2010 Q 1 2011 Q 1 2012
Repo rate 3.6 1.5 (2.0) 0.9 (1.9) 0.8 (2.1) 1.6 (2.6) 3.2
Table A1. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change
2008 2009 2010 2011
CPI 3.4 (3.5) -0.5 (1.2) 1.6 (1.5) 3.2 (2.1)
CPIF 2.7 (2.7) 1.6 (1.7) 1.6 (1.4) 1.8 (1.7)
CPIF excl. energy 2.0 (2.0) 2.2 (2.1) 1.8 (1.6) 1.7 (1.4)
CPI 2.5 (2.5) 1.3 (1.3) 1.2 (1.1) 1.5 (1.4)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Table A2. Inflation, 12-month average Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Mar -09 Mar -10 Mar -11 Mar -12
CPI 3.4 -0.1 (1.8) 1.4 (1.4) 2.9 (2.0) CPIX 2.6 1.9 (2.0) 1.7 (1.4) 1.8 (1.7)
CPIX excl. energy 2.2 2.0 (2.1) 1.9 (1.7) 1.7 (1.6)
CPIF 2.3 1.4 (1.6) 1.3 (1.1) 1.5 (1.4)
Table A3. Summary of financial forecasts, annual averagePer cent, unless otherwise specified
2008 2009 2010 2011
Repo rate 4.1 (4.1) 1.0 (2.0) 0.9 (2.3) 2.2 (2.9)
10-year rate 3.9 (3.9) 2.9 (3.3) 3.6 (3.7) 4.1 (4.1) Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100
127.2 (127.2) 140.0 (134.3) 134.5
(128.8) 131.9 (126.9)
General government net lending* 2.3 (2.7) -1.7 (-0.2) -2.6 (-0.8) -1.3 (-0.1)
* Per cent of GDP
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Table A4. International conditionsAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
GDP 2008 2009 2010 2011
USA 1.3 (1.3) -2.0 (-0.7) 1.0 (1.9) 3.2 (3.6)
Japan 0.0 (0.6) -2.3 (-0.1) 0.2 (0.7) 1.6 (1.6)
Euro area 0.8 (1.0) -2.0 (-0.8) 0.4 (1.1) 1.7 (2.1)
OECD 1.1 (1.3) -1.9 (-0.3) 0.9 (1.6) 2.5 (2.9)
TCW-weighted 0.9 (1.2) -1.8 (-0.6) 0.6 (1.3) 2.0 (2.3)
World 3.4 (3.5) 0.4 (1.9) 2.6 (3.2) 3.9 (4.1)
CPI 2008 2009 2010 2011
USA 3.8 (4.1) -0.5 (0.8) 1.8 (2.2) 2.2 (2.2) Japan 1.4 (1.6) 0.0 (0.6) 0.5 (0.8) 1.0 (1.0) Euro area (HICP) 3.3 (3.4) 0.8 (1.5) 1.4 (1.8) 1.8 (2.1) OECD 3.6 (3.7) 0.8 (1.6) 1.7 (2.1) 2.0 (2.2)
TCW-weighted 3.2 (3.3) 0.8 (1.4) 1.5 (1.8) 1.8 (2.0)
2008 2009 2010 2011
Crude oil price, USD/barrel Brent 97 (98) 50 (60) 59 (71) 63 (77)
Swedish export market growth 1.7 (1.8) -3.0 (-0.3) 1.6 (3.2) 5.4 (6.3)
Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Table A5. GDP by expenditureAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified 2008 2009 2010 2011
Private consumption 0.8 (0.8) -0.6 (-0.7) 1.9 (2.2) 2.5 (2.6) Public consumption 0.9 (0.9) 0.7 (0.7) 0.8 (1.3) 0.8 (1.0) Gross fixed capital formation 3.9 (4.1) -5.4 (-3.5) -1.2 (1.8) 4.2 (3.7) Inventory investment* -0.2 (-0.4) 0.2 (-0.3) -0.2 (0.0) 0.1 (0.1) Exports 2.0 (3.2) -6.0 (-0.7) 3.2 (3.1) 6.4 (6.0) Imports 3.3 (4.1) -5.6 (-2.3) 1.4 (2.6) 5.3 (5.4) GDP 0.7 (0.9) -1.6 (-0.5) 1.7 (2.2) 3.2 (3.0) GDP, calender-adjusted 0.4 (0.6) -1.4 (-0.4) 1.4 (1.9) 3.2 (3.0)
*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Table A6. Production and employmentAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
2008 2009 2010 2011
Population, aged 16-64 0.8 (0.8) 0.5 (0.4) 0.2 (0.2) 0.0 (0.0) GDP, calendar-adjusted 0.4 (0.6) -1.4 (-0.4) 1.4 (1.9) 3.2 (3.0) Number of hours worked, calendar-adjusted 1.2 (1.2) -2.1 (-1.6) -1.5 (-1.0) 0.4 (0.7) Employed (EU-definition) 1.2 (1.2) -2.0 (-1.3) -1.6 (-1.3) 0.0 (0.2) Labour force (EU-definition) 1.3 (1.2) -0.1 (-0.1) -0.5 (-0.2) 0.0 (0.0) Unemployment aged 15-74(EU-definition) * 6.2 (6.2) 8.0 (7.4) 9.1 (8.4) 9.0 (8.2) Labour market programmes* 1.5 (1.5) 2.2 (1.9) 2.4 (1.9) 2.0 (1.9)
* Per cent of labour force
Source: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Table A7. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, calendar-adjusted data
2008 2009 2010 2011
Hourly wage, NM 4.3 (4.2) 3.5 (3.6) 2.9 (3.2) 3.1 (3.4) Hourly wage, NA 4.9 (4.8) 3.6 (3.8) 3.0 (3.5) 3.4 (3.7) Employer’s contributions* -1.0 (-1.0) -0.1 (-0.1) 0.1 (0.1) 0.1 (0.1) Hourly labour cost, NA 3.9 (3.8) 3.5 (3.7) 3.1 (3.6) 3.4 (3.8)
Productivity -0.8 (-0.7) 0.6 (1.3) 2.9 (2.9) 2.7 (2.4)
Unit labour cost 4.7 (4.5) 2.8 (2.4) 0.1 (0.6) 0.7 (1.4)
* Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2008 is stated in parenthesis.
Table A8. Scenario with higher repo rate, annual averageAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
2008 2009 2010 2011 GDP 0.4 (0.4) -1.9 (-1.4) 0.4 (1.4) 2.8 (3.2) CPI 3.4 (3.4) -0.8 (-0.5) 0.0 (1.6) 0.8 (3.2) Repo rate, per cent 4.1 (4.1) 2.0 (1.0) 2.3 (0.9) 2.9 (2.2) Real repo rate, per cent 2.0 (2.0) 2.0 (-0.7) 1.7 (-1.9) Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100 127.2 (127.2) 137.7 (140.0) 127.4 (134.5) 122.4 (131.9)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets.
Table A9. Scenario with weaker growth, annual averageAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
2008 2009 2010 2011 GDP 0.4 (0.4) -2.4 (-1.4) 0.0 (1.4) 3.0 (3.2) CPI 3.4 (3.4) -1.1 (-0.5) -0.5 (1.6) 1.7 (3.2) Repo rate, per cent 4.1 (4.1) 0.5 (1.0) 0.0 (0.9) 0.5 (2.2) Real repo rate, per cent 2.0 (2.0) 0.4 (-0.7) -1.7 (-1.9) Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100 127.2 (127.2) 139.9 (140.0) 130.1 (134.5) 125.3 (131.9)
TCW-weighted interest rate, per cent 3.8 (3.8) 0.7 (1.2) 0.1 (1.8) 1.1 (3.0) TCW- weighted CPI 3.2 (3.2) 0.5 (0.8) 1.1 (1.5) 1.4 (1.8)
TCW- weighted GDP 0.9 (0.9) -2.2 (-1.8) -1.2 (0.6) 1.2 (2.0)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets.
Table A10. Scenario with stronger growth, annual averageAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
2008 2009 2010 2011 GDP 0.4 (0.4) -1.2 (-1.4) 2.2 (1.4) 3.8 (3.2) CPI 3.4 (3.4) -0.2 (-0.5) 3.0 (1.6) 5.0 (3.2) Repo rate, per cent 4.1 (4.1) 1.2 (1.0) 1.9 (0.9) 3.6 (2.2) Real repo rate, per cent 2.0 (2.0) -1.4 (-0.7) -2.5 (-1.9) Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100 127.2 (127.2) 140.9 (140.0) 138.5 (134.5) 138.0 (131.9)
TCW-weighted interest rate, per cent 3.8 (3.8) 1.5 (1.2) 3.2 (1.8) 5.2 (3.0) TCW- weighted CPI 3.2 (3.2) 0.8 (0.8) 1.9 (1.5) 2.4 (1.8) TCW- weighted GDP 0.9 (0.9) -1.0 (-1.8) 1.8 (0.6) 2.4 (2.0)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets.
Table A11. Scenario with higher cost pressures, annual averageAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets.
2008 2009 2010 2011 GDP 0.4 (0.4) -0.6 (-1.4) 1.7 (1.4) 1.9 (3.2) CPI 3.4 (3.4) 0.7 (-0.5) 3.0 (1.6) 2.8 (3.2) Repo rate, per cent 4.1 (4.1) 1.8 (1.0) 2.3 (0.9) 3.0 (2.2) Real repo rate, per cent 2.0 (2.0) -0.7 (-0.7) -0.2 (-1.9) Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100 127.2 (127.2) 142.8 (140.0) 138.0 (134.5) 135.3 (131.9)
Productivity -0.8 (-0.8) 0.6 (0.6) 1.5 (2.9) 1.8 (2.7) Number of hours worked 1.2 (1.2) -1.2 (-2.1) 0.3 (-1.5) 0.2 (0.4)
