Mozammel DevComm Edit
-
Upload
willisdsouza -
Category
Documents
-
view
218 -
download
0
Transcript of Mozammel DevComm Edit
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
1/29
Latest Findings onDevelopment Effectiveness:Lessons Learned
Presentation by Ajay Chhibber, Director andPatrick G. Grasso, Adviser, Independent Evaluation Group,World BankDCF-Vienna High Level Symposium
April 19-20, 2007Vienna, Austria
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
2/29
2
Three Core Questions onDevelopment Effectiveness andPoverty Reduction
I. How effectively has economic growthtranslated into poverty reduction? Whatfactors have affected these results?
II. What factors have led to high-quality resultsin sectors that deliver services to the poor?
III. What measures have helped raise theaccountability of public institutions
responsible for delivering and sustainingresults?
IV. What is happening to Aid Flows and Aid
Coordination?
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
3/29
3
between OECD and developingcountries
-2
-2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Middle-income Low-income Sub-Saharan Africa
Average annual per capita income growth
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2001/6
Source: World Bank
OECD average1980-2006
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
4/29
4
u ere s rong ross-country Variability In GrowthPerformance
Growth has improved in most Bank borrowingcountries over the past five years, butachieving sustained growth remains achallenge.
Source: ARDE 2006
2 22 22 22 22
more than %2
%- %2 2
. - %222
- . %222
% to %2 2
less than %2Averageannualg
ro
rateofGDPperc
a
Number of Countries
-22222222 -22222222
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
5/29
5
Growth is a Major Factor inPoverty Reduction
-22
-22
2
22
22
22
22
22
E. Asia & Pacific S. Asia M. East & N.
Africa
Latin America &
the Caribbean
Europe & C. Asia
Poverty(%o
fP
opulation)
-2
-2
2
2
2
2
2
Growth(%P
e
rAnnum)
Population Living on Less Than $ a Day ( )2 2222
Population Living on Less Than $ a Day ( )2 2222
Real Per Capita GDP Growth ( - )22222222
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
6/29
6
There Are Still Over 1 BillionPeople Living In ExtremePoverty
Number of People Living on Less Than $ /Day 2
2
222
222
2222
2222
East Asia
and
Pacific
China Europe
and
Central
Asia
Latin
America
and
Caribbean
Middle
East and
North
Africa
South
Asia
Sub-
Saharan
Africa
World World
Excluding
China
2222
2222
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
7/29
7
Poverty Reduction Remains ASignificant Challenge Even InCountries With Positive Growth Rates
Positive Per Capita Income Growth between the mid-1990sand early-2000s did not always lead to Poverty Reduction in25 countries reviewed by IEG
Note: High growth=average annual per capita GDP growth rate of >2.5%, moderate growth=average annual per capita GDP growth of0%-2.5%, low growth= average annual per capita GDP growth
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
8/29
8
Income Distribution HasAffected Poverty Reduction (1)
Growth was an important driver of poverty reduction,but even small changes in income distribution eitherdampened or reinforced growths effects on poverty in25 countries reviewed by IEG.
change in poverty due to change in household income/consumption change in poverty due to change in distribution
Positive growth effect reinforced by improvements
in distribution
-22
-22
-22
-22
-22-
22
-2
-2
-2
-2
2
Mo
ldova
Cameroon
Burk
ina
Faso
Ukra
ine
Armen
ia
Nigeria
Negative growth effect reinforced by
worsening distribution
2
2
2
2
2
22
22
22
22
Hon
duras
Bo
liv
ia
Georg
ia
Ma
dagascar
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
9/29
9
Income Distribution HasAffected Poverty Reduction (2)
change in poverty due to change in household income/consumption
change in poverty due to change in household income/consumption change in poverty due to change in distribution
Positive growth effect dampened by worsening
distribution
-22-2-2-2-2
2
2
2
2
2
22
22
Senegal
China-Urban
China-Rural
Albania
Peru
SriLanka
Lithuania
Jordan
Romania
Dom
inicanRepublic
Turkey
Negative growth effect mitigated by
improvements in distribution
-2
-2
-2
2
2
2
2
2
22
Braz
il
Za
mbia
Uru
guay
Pakistan
P t d ti i
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
10/29
10
Poverty reduction requiresattention to both growth andopportunities for the poor
literacy
health infrastructure,
environment initial income inequality
Growth is necessary but not sufficient for povertyreduction. Extent to which the poor participate in growthdepends upon
Burkina Faso: Modest annual growth deliveredimpressive poverty reduction based mainlyon increases in farm production
Strategies need to take account of:
where the poor live and how they earn their incomewhat constrains growth in those areas and sectorsconstraints to inter-sectoral mobility such as low skills or
lack of access to capital, infrastructure or markets
job creation access to
credit
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
11/29
11
Rural Poverty ReductionRequires More Attention
Rural poverty remains more pervasive thanurban poverty in many countries.
.222
.222
.222
.222
.222
.2222
.2222
RatioofRuraltoUrb
anP
II Wh t f t h l d t
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
12/29
12
II. What factors have led tobetter service delivery to thepoor
1. Improve the policy environment
2. Integrate complementary actions fromdifferent sectors
3. Adapt to political and capacity realities
4. Combine short- and long-termobjectives
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
13/29
13
1. Good policies and successfulprojects go together
The 18 countries with the best overall policies had 82%
of projects rated satisfactory Sector policies matter, as well as the overall policy
framework. Individual projects have more impact ifanchored in an appropriate and country-owned sectorstrategy.
%2
%22
%22
%22
%22
%22
%22
%22
%22
%22
Above .22 Between & .2 22 Below 2
CPIA Rating2222
Percentsatisfactoryoutcome
-
222222
2
IDA countries22
IDA countries22
IDA countries22
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
14/29
14
2. Integrate complementaryactions
Achieving the MDGs requires multiple actions aimed at
the targeted outcomes
Improvements in one sector often require removingconstraints in another sector
Bangladesh: girls secondary schooling and ruralelectrification contributed to reductions in childmortality
Vietnam: trade liberalization and infrastructure
investments helped fuel agricultural growth thatreduced rural poverty
Poverty Reduction Strategies are designed to integrateactions for both physical and human capital. Asimplemented they need to put more emphasis oninfrastructure and rural development.
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
15/29
15
3. Adapt to political andcapacity realities
Reforming public sector institutions requires broadpolitical support.
Bolivia and Yemen: Technocratic civil servicereforms couldnt overcome traditions of politicalpatronage
If broad support is lacking, an incremental approach canget results.
Senegal: Successful reforms in telecoms and waterbuilt on politically acceptable intermediate solutions.But planned reforms in power and urban transport
were too all-encompassing, and failed
Modernization and reform efforts must matchimplementation capacity.
Malawi: a health service pilot operation with modest
objectives has achieved more than an ambitiouspublic sector overhaul program
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
16/29
16
Making global programs MoreEffective
Most have been donor-driven; thevoice of developing countries in theirestablishment and governance has so far
been limitedMost are advocacy/technical
assistance programs supportingnational public goods although global
public goods programs still command themajor share of expenditures
Global-country linkages have beenweak; incentives to foster such linkagesare insufficient
Donors need to develop a
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
17/29
17
Donors need to develop astronger approach to support ofregional programs Regional programs are few in numberyet equally
successful (above 80%) in meeting their objectives assingle-country programs
A regional hydropower project in the Senegal River Basinhas succeeded in providing efficiently produced electricityfor Mali, Mauritania, and Senegal
Donors and countries have overlooked opportunities forregional cooperation in country development strategies
They need greater peripheral vision to address such issuesas water management, power, transport, and diseasecontrol.
Successful support of regional programs requiresattention to three key issues
The achievement of equitably apportioned costs andbenefits among all countries
Reliance for program coordination on broad regional
institutions vs customized arrangements for specific topics Accommodation of the need for performance-based aid
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
18/29
18
4. Combine short- and long-term objectives
Need long term engagement to get results
Cambodia: IDA projects helped build the HealthMinistry from weak bystander to effectiveimplementer of AIDS control programs.
Reform requires consensus-building. Combiningshort-term outputs with a long-term reformprogram helps deliver results
Ghana: IDA Support for education combinedpolicy reforms with funding for schoolbuildings and teaching materials over 15years. Physical improvements helped buildsupport for difficult systemic reforms.
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
19/29
19
III. Strengthening Public SectorAccountability
Efforts to strengthen the accountability of publicsector institutions have led to better governmentprocesses in some countries, but they have not yetresulted in improvements in the perceived qualityof governance.
35 Countries with Bank Assistance for Public SectorReform
Government Process Quality GovernancePerception
Notes: Quality of Government Process Indicators: CPIA for budget and financial management, and for public administration 1999-2005.Governance Indicators are Kaufmann, Kraay, Mastruzzi Indicators for 1996-2004.Sample includes all countries for which IEG carried out a CAE or CASCRR in FY03-06, where the Bank provided support for public sector and governance reforms and for which CPIA and KKM indicatorswere available.Source: ARDE 2006
22
22
22
2
2
2222
2
2
2
2
22
22
22
22
22
22
G o v e r n m e n t
Ef f ec t i veness
C o n t ro l o f
C o r r u p t i o n
R e g u l a to r y Q u a li ty R u l e o f l a w
NumberofCountries
De t e r io ra t io n Im p ro ve m e nt No C han ge
22
2
2
2
2
2
2
22
22
22
Qual i ty o f Budgetary and Financia l
M a n a g e m e n t
Qual i ty o f Pub l i c A dminst ra t ion
NumberofCountries
De t e r io ra t io n Im p ro ve m e n t No C ha n ge
Governance Reforms Need
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
20/29
20
Governance Reforms NeedPolitical Backing To DeliverResults
Three factors attenuated theeffectiveness of governance reformsthrough large-scale administrativereforms:
1.Reform initiatives have not always beenaligned with political realities:
Civil service reform in Bulgariadelivered results because it hadstrong political backing (prospects ofEU accession), but civil service
reforms in Yemen and Bolivia
Three Factors Attenuated
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
21/29
21
Three Factors AttenuatedEffectiveness Of GovernanceReforms
2.The focus has been on adoption oflegislation and establishment ofinstitutions, but enforcement
capacity has received insufficientattention.
Anticorruption agencies, forexample, have only limited impactwhen they and their staff are notfully independent of those whosebehavior they monitor.
Three Factors Attenuated
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
22/29
22
Three Factors AttenuatedEffectiveness Of GovernanceReforms
3.Governance reforms have tended toinsufficiently address the intersectionbetween the public sector and private
sector, even though regulatory reformshave often been effective againstcorruption.
Establishment of an independentregulator for electricity in Turkeyenabled direct contracting betweenbuyers and sellers of electricity andsharply limited opportunities for kick-
There Is Improvement In The
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
23/29
23
There Is Improvement In TheTransparency Of GovernmentProcesses
Budget transparency: Turkey brought extra-budgetary funds that
undermined fiscal discipline into the budget,subjecting them to budget and parliamentaryscrutiny.
Public expenditure tracking surveys in Ugandadrastically increased the share of spending thatactually reaches schools.
Public procurement:
Civil society representatives observe publictendering in the Philippines.
Uganda posts results of procurement audits,contract awards etc. on the web.
Customs administration: The South East European Trade and Transport
Implications Basing Go ernance
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
24/29
24
Implications: Basing GovernanceReforms On A Realistic AssessmentOf The Political Economy
Reforms to improve the accountabilityof public sector institutions requirebroad-based political support.
When such support is absent, anincremental approach that allowsmomentum for reforms to build canhelp achieve results.
Governance Reforms Need A
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
25/29
25
Governance Reforms Need ARealistic Assessment Of ThePolitical Economy
Thorough exploitation of sector-specificopportunities to improve governancebrings results, even when anti-corruption is not the primary objective.
Reforms can be enhanced with effortsto foster local demand for accountabilitythrough increased transparency of
government processes and resourceutilization.
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
26/29
26
IV. Aid flows are not reachingscaling up commitments
Source: OECD/DAC Database on Aid Activities
Real ODA, -22222222(Adjusted for inflation and exchange rate changes)
2
22
22
22
22
222
222
2222 2222 2222 2222 2222 2222 2222 2222 *2222
BillionUS$(Cons
tant
.222
.222
.222
.222
.222
.222
.222
.222
.222
%
ofG
Africa, exc. debt relief Other regions, exc. debt relief Debt relief ODA / GNI
Note: * Regional breakdown not yet available for 2006.
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
27/29
27
Aid flows are not reaching scalingup commitments
Source: OECD/DAC Database on Aid Activities
Number of Donors per Recipient Country
%2
%22
%22
%22
%22
%222
s2222 s2222 s2222 s2222 s2222
Decade
%o
fRecipientCountries
Over22
to22 22
Less than 2
Source: OECD/DAC Database on Aid Activities
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
28/29
28
Summing up
Independent Evaluation finds thatdevelopment effectiveness improveswhen it:
Focuses on the nature of growth Integrates activities across sectors and
sustains them over time
Supports and fosters a good policy
framework in each country Recognizes each countrys political and
capacity realities and builds on deepcountry knowledge
Aid volumes and fragmentation: source of
-
8/4/2019 Mozammel DevComm Edit
29/29
29
ARDE 2006 Website
http://www.worldbank.org/ieg/arde2006