Moving Markets: A Washington Update - CFA Institute Calendar... · Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) ... Tampa...
-
Upload
truongdung -
Category
Documents
-
view
212 -
download
0
Transcript of Moving Markets: A Washington Update - CFA Institute Calendar... · Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) ... Tampa...
Moving Markets: A Washington UpdateCFA Society of Nebraska
September 27, 2017
2squirepattonboggs.com
Overview
Federal Policies and Markets Where are the Votes? The Trump Effect A Resurgent Congress Personnel is Policy Debt and Taxes America First: NAFTA and DACA A Grab Bag: Other Pending Policy Issues
3squirepattonboggs.com
Federal Policies and Markets
A View from the C-Suite: “Regulatory risk is my greatest risk.”
Federal Policies and Markets–Some Examples: Housing
• FHA, VA, Rural Housing, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, mortgage interest deduction
Health care• Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare
Banking• FDIC, Fed, OCC, CFPB
4squirepattonboggs.com
Where are the Votes: The U.S. House of Representatives
• 240 Republicans (31 in House Freedom Caucus)• 194 Democrats• 1 vacancy• Bills need at least 218 votes to pass (22 vote margin for Republicans)
5squirepattonboggs.com
Where are the Votes: The U.S. Senate
• 52 Republicans• 46 Democrats• 2 Independents (Caucus with Democrats)• No Filibuster-Proof Majority
6squirepattonboggs.com
Where are the Votes: Congressional Leadership
Speaker of the House: Paul Ryan (R-WI)
Minority Leader: Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
Majority Leader:Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)
Minority Whip:Steny Hoyer (D-MD)
Leadership Senate
Leadership House
7squirepattonboggs.com
Where are the Votes: Committee Leadership
Senate Finance Committee
Senate Banking Committee
House Ways and Means Committee
Housing Financial Services Committee
Chairman:Orrin Hatch (R-UT)
Ranking Member:Ron Wyden (D-OR)
Chairman:Mike Crapo (R-ID)
Ranking Member:Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
Chairman:Kevin Brady (R-TX)
Ranking Member:Richard Neal (D-MA)
Chairman:Jeb Hensarling (R-TX)
Ranking Member:Maxine Waters (D-CA)
8squirepattonboggs.com
Where are the Votes: Senate Races to Watch in 2018
Dean Heller (R-NV) Low poll numbers
Jeff Flake (R- AZ) Trump supporting primary opponent
Claire McCaskill (D-MO) Trump carried Missouri by 19 point
Joe Donnelly (D-IN) Trump carried Indiana by 19 points
Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) Trump carried North Dakota by 36 points
Joe Manchin (D-WV) Trump carried West Virginia by 42 points
Jon Tester (D-MT) Trump carried Montana by 20 points
9squirepattonboggs.com
The Trump Effect
Market Impact S&P 500 is up ~17% since Election Day
Twitter Boeing Lockheed Martin General Motors Amazon NFL
Key Players Gary Cohn, National Economic Council (NEC) Director Steven Mnuchin, Treasury Secretary Wilbur Ross, Commerce Secretary Robert Lighthizer, United States Trade Representative (USTR) Steve Bannon, White House Chief Strategist
10squirepattonboggs.com
A Resurgent Congress
Congressional Review Act 14 Obama-era rules disapproved (e.g., an SEC rule relating
to disclosure of payments by mining companies; an Interior Department rule known as the “steam protection rule”)
Senate action pending on CFPB arbitration rule
Russia Sanctions Bill Limits President’s authority to independently life sanctions
11squirepattonboggs.com
Personnel is Policy
Presidential Appointments Are Lagging 1,200 positions that require Senate approval As of Sept. 18, President Trump had submitted 347
nominations and only 141 have been approved In comparison, at the same point in President Obama’s
administration he had submitted 455 nominations and 324 had been approved
12squirepattonboggs.com
Personnel is Policy: The Federal Financial Regulatory Agencies
Federal Reserve Board Three current vacancies and Vice Chairman Fischer leaving in October Chairman Yellen’s term as Chair expires on February 3, 2018 Nomination of Randy Quarles to be Vice Chairman for Supervision
pending in Senate
CFPB Director Cordray’s term expires on July 16, 2018
FDIC One current vacancy Chairman Gruenberg’s term expires on November 15, 2017 Vice Chairman Hoenig’s term expires on April 16, 2018
OCC Acting Comptroller Noreika Joseph Otting nomination pending in Senate
13squirepattonboggs.com
Personnel is Policy: The Federal Financial Regulatory Agencies
SEC Chairman Jay Clayton confirmed Two vacancies Commissioner Stein’s term expired on June 5, 2017 (she can
serve 18 months after term expires, if not replaced) Commissioner Piwowar’s term expires in June 2018
CFTC Chairman Giancarlo confirmed One vacancy Commissioner Bowen’s term expires in 2019 Commissioners Quintenz confirmed through 2020 Commissioner Behnam confirmed through 2021
14squirepattonboggs.com
Debt and Taxes
Tax Reform The Politics
• A must pass bill for Republicans• President Trump will sign
The Process• Budget reconciliation would permit the Senate to approve
the bill with just 51 votes• 10 year deficit neutrality requirement • Plan B
15squirepattonboggs.com
Debt and Taxes
Tax Reform The Timing
• Framework this week• Budget resolution in October• Ways and Means and Senate Finance in November
The Substance• Cuts in corporate and individual rates• Deduction for state and local tax is on the table• Deductibility of interest expense?• Repatriation of foreign income
16squirepattonboggs.com
Debt and Taxes
Debt Ceiling Extraordinary measures push the limit into March 2018
Federal Budget Disaster relief bills and supplemental budget requests December 8th deadline Adjustments to sequester
17squirepattonboggs.com
America First: NAFTA and DACA
DACA March 5th deadline Immigration deal?
NAFTA Round three ends today
• Dispute settlement mechanics• Rules of origin• Sunset
Politics• Mexican election July 2018• US mid-term elections Nov. 2018
18squirepattonboggs.com
Other Policy Issues
Health Care September 30 budget deadline
• Graham/Cassidy bill• CHIP Reauthorization
GSE Reform A 2018/2019 legislative issue Recap and Release Receivership
Dodd-Frank Reform The CHOICE Act Community bank relief
19squirepattonboggs.com
Other Policy Issues
AML Reform A broken system House Republicans interested in reform
CECL Regional banks mounting effort to study Incorporating ALLL in Tier 1 capital
DOL Fiduciary Rule 18 month delay Litigation still pending Rewrite with SEC
20squirepattonboggs.com
Other Policy Issues
Flood Insurance Reauthorization Dec. 8 deadline Additional extension likely
Cybersecurity Equifax breach National data breach standard
21squirepattonboggs.com
Other Policy Issues
Treasury Studies Capital Markets Asset managers and insurance Fintech Nonbank designations OLA
The Fed’s Great Unwinding $4.2 trillion in mortgage and Treasury securities
22squirepattonboggs.com
James C. Sivon
James C. Sivon specializes in representing financial institutions before the U.S. Congress and federal regulatory agencies.He is a former senior vice president and general counsel for the Association of Bank Holding Companies (1983-1985), and he served as the staff director for the Republican members of the US House Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs from 1980 to 1983. James is a frequent speaker on the regulation of financial services firms, and is the author of various publications including The New CRA, published by the American Bankers Association, Insurance Activities: A Legal Guide for Banks, published by A.S. Pratt & Sons, and is a co-author of Understanding Fintech and Banking Law: A Practical Guide, published by Thomson Reuters. He also serves as the co-editor of the Fintech Law Report published by Thomson Reuters. James is a member of the Executive Council of the Federal Bar Association’s Banking Law Committee and the Exchequer Club.
James C. SivonOf Counsel
Squire Patton Boggs (US) [email protected]
T +1 202 262 4271
Abu Dhabi
Beijing
Berlin
Birmingham
Böblingen
Bratislava
Brussels
Budapest
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Columbus
Dallas
Darwin
Denver
Doha
Dubai
Frankfurt
Hong Kong
Houston
Kyiv
Leeds
London
Los Angeles
Madrid
Manchester
Miami
Moscow
Newark
New York
Northern Virginia
Palo Alto
Paris
Perth
Phoenix
Prague
Riyadh
Israel
Italy
Mexico
Panamá
Peru
Turkey
Venezuela
Global Coverage
Africa
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Cuba
India
Office locations
Regional desks and strategic alliances
San Francisco
Santo Domingo
Seoul
Shanghai
Singapore
Sydney
Tampa
Tokyo
Warsaw
Washington DC
West Palm Beach
23squirepattonboggs.com
24squirepattonboggs.com
LOCAL CONNECTIONS.GLOBAL INFLUENCE.