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7/31/2019 Most Imp Report
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DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. U.S.Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
25 April 2011
Asia Pacific/India
Equity Research
Computer Services & IT Consulting (IT Services) / OVERWEIGHT
Tata Consultancy Services(TCS.BO / TCS IN)
DOWNGRADE RATING
All positives priced in
TCS reported in line March 2011 quarter results. Revenue grew 4.7%
QoQ in dollar terms. Management indicated that excluding the Indian
business, growth was 5.5% QoQ in dollar terms. The company reported flat
margins despite a 200 bp fall in utilisation, benefiting from currency. PAT
was 2.5% ahead of estimates due to higher other income.
We believe demand environment is good but not extraordinary. Though
leading Indian IT companies continue to point at the good demand
environment, the March 2011 quarter was weaker than expectations at thebeginning of the quarter. We thus believe the environment is good but not
extraordinary. Taking a reality check on our estimates, we now build a
27%/26% YoY revenue growth in FY12/13 (USD-based, earlier 30%/28%).
Strong performance with respect to peers is priced in. Over the past two
years, TCS has delivered the best performance among the large Indian IT
companies. This is also reflected in the share performance and the stock
now trades at a P/E premium of 11% to Infosys and 20% to Wipro.
Downgrade to NEUTRAL. Post results, due to reduction in our revenue
estimates, our EPS numbers decline by 5%/8% for FY12/13 leading to the
new target price of Rs1,275 (earlier: Rs1,325, DCF based). With a high
overweight in investor portfolio and signs of strain on consensus upgrades,
we believe the risk-reward is no more in our favour. With hardly a 7% upsideto our target price, we downgrade the stock to NEUTRAL. We would be
more positive on the stock closer to Rs1,025 and less so around our target
price of Rs1,275.
Share price performance
200
700
1200
Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10
0100200300400
Price (LH S) R eb ased Rel ( RH S)
The price relative chart measures performance against the
BOMBAY SE 30 SHARE SENSITIVE index which closed at
19602.23 on 21/04/11
On 21/04/11 the spot exchange rate was Rs44.38/US$1
Performance over 1M 3M 12MAbsolute (%) 11.3 -1.7 51.9Relative (%) 1.3 -4.7 35.4
Financial and valuation metrics
Year 3/11A 3/12E 3/13E 3/14ERevenue (Rs mn) 373,245.1 463,239.6 581,861.7 713,375.6EBITDA (Rs mn) 111,893.7 135,476.8 170,064.3 204,805.7EBIT (Rs mn) 103,903.7 124,962.9 157,450.3 190,091.7Net income (Rs mn) 86,829.3 100,076.9 124,781.9 152,796.5EPS (CS adj.) (Rs) 44.36 51.13 63.75 78.07Change from previous EPS (%) n.a. -4.6 -7.8Consensus EPS (Rs) n.a. 52.3 61.8 59.5EPS growth (%) 26.3 15.3 24.7 22.5P/E (x) 26.9 23.3 18.7 15.3Dividend yield (%) 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.9P/B (x) 9.2 8.1 6.5 5.1ROE 37.6 37.2 38.6 37.2Net debt/equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cashSource: Company data, Thomson Financial Datastream, Credit Suisse estimates
Rating (from Outperform)NEUTRAL*Price (22 Apr 11, Rs) 1,191.65Target price (Rs) (from 1,325.00) 1,275.00Chg to TP (%) 7.0Market cap. (Rs mn) 2,332,322 (US$ 52,553)Enterprise value (Rs mn) 2,266,899Number of shares (mn) 1,957.22Free float (%) 25.9952-week price range 1238.00 - 699.10*Stock ratings are relative to the relevant country benchmark.
Target price is for 12 months.
Research Analysts
Bhuvnesh Singh
65 6212 3006
Sunil Tirumalai
9122 6777 [email protected]
Sagar Rastogi
91 22 6777 3851
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Focus charts and tablesFigure 1: TCS March 2011 quarter results(Rs mn) 4Q10 3Q11 4Q11 QoQ (%) YoY (%) CS Est Difference (%)
Net sales 77,365 96,634 101,575 5.1 31.3 101,381 0.2
EBIT 21,280 27,132 28,457 4.9 33.7 28,269 0.7
EBIT margins (%) 27.5 28.1 28.027.9Net Income 19,312 23,302 24,021 3.1 24.4 23,439 2.5
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Figure 2: TCS versus Infosys operating metrics comparison (March 2011)QoQ YoY
TCS Infosys TCS Infosys
Volume growth % 2.9 (1.4) 30.7 17.2
Blended realisation change % (CC) 0.8 2.1
$-revenue growth (%) 4.7 1.1 33.1 23.6
Utilisation incl. trainees (bp increase) (200) (498) 80 (144)
Headcount growth (%) 6.3 2.4 23.8 15.0
LTM attrition rate (bp increase) - (50) 260 356
EBIT margin change (bp) (6) (122) 51 (132)
Note: 1) Infosys volume and pricing are for only IT services, 2) blended realisation change incorporatesimpact of mix change of onsite/offshore.Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Figure 3: TCS 12-month fwd P/E based on consensus Figure 4: TCS versus Infosys P/E based on consensus
5
10
15
20
25
30
Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Company data Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Company data
Figure 5: Indian IT valuationsCMP Mkt cap TP P/E EV/EBITDA EV/sales
Ticker Rs (US$ mn) Rating (Rs) FY3/12 FY3/13 FY3/12 FY3/13 FY3/12 FY3/13
Tata Consultancy TCS.BO 1,192 52,565 N 1,275 23.3 18.7 16.7 13.0 4.9 3.8
Infosys Technologies INFY.BO 2,909 37,830 N 3,400 21.2 16.9 14.9 11.7 4.5 3.6
Wipro WIPR.BO 463 25,618 O 575 17.0 13.6 12.9 10.3 2.8 2.3
HCL Technologies HCLT.BO 519 8,016 O 640 14.8 11.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mindtree MINT.BO 391 353 U 360 9.7 9.2 4.9 3.9 0.7 0.6
Infotech Enterprises INFE.BO 154 386 U 140 11.8 10.0 6.1 4.9 0.9 0.8Hexaware HEXT.BO 69 454 U 50 13.8 11.9 9.2 7.9 1.1 1.0
Mphasis MBFL.BO 453 2,145 N 550 10.5 8.8 7.0 6.0 1.5 1.4
Persistent Systems PERS.BO 392 353 O 450 11.2 8.8 5.5 4.2 1.2 0.9
Average 18.6 14.8 12.2 9.7 3.3 2.7
Note: Closing prices as of 21 April 2011: Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates, Datastream
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Figure 8: TCS reported the weakest volume growth in eight quarters
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11
Volume growth QoQ
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Good performance versus Infosys
TCS volume growth of 2.9% QoQ was unexciting. However, Infosys performance at QoQ
volume decline of 1.4% was even worse. Thus, despite an in-line performance, relative
comparison makes TCS seems good.
Figure 9: TCS versus Infosys operating metrics comparison (March 2011)QoQ YoY
TCS Infosys TCS Infosys
Volume growth % 2.9 (1.4) 30.7 17.2
Blended realisation change % (CC) 0.8 2.1
$-revenue growth (%) 4.7 1.1 33.1 23.6
Utilisation incl. trainees (bp increase) (200) (498) 80 (144)
Headcount growth (%) 6.3 2.4 23.8 15.0
LTM attrition rate (bp increase) - (50) 260 356
EBIT margin change (bp) (6) (122) 51 (132)
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Figure 10: TCS and Infosys revenue growth performance Figure 11: TCS and Infosys margin performance
QoQ US$ revenue growth
0%
2%4%
6%
8%
10%
12%14%
Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10
TCS Infosys
EBIT m argins
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11
TCS Infosys
Source: Company data Source: Company data
Margins sustained
TCS reported an EBIT margin drop of just 6 basis points during the quarter despite a dropin utilisation of 200 basis points. The factors behind margin movement during the quarter
were:
(1) currency (+58 bp); (2) pricing (1 bp); and (3) provisions for doubtful debts (28 bp) and
other SG&A expenses (19 bp).
Write back of bad loans resulted in a margin movement of negative 20 basis points QoQ.
Currency helped offsetimpact of other factors
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Figure 12: Impact of various costs on margins
Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11
Revenues (Rs mn) 71,718 72,070 74,351 76,503 77,365 82,173 92,864 96,634 101,575
Costs as % of sales:
Cost of services 52.1% 50.8% 51.7% 51.2% 50.8% 53.0% 51.5% 52.0% 51.7%
Employee costs 44.4% 43.7% 45.0% 44.1% 44.1% 45.4% 44.9% 44.4% 44.4%
Depreciation 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%Travel 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8%
Communication 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0%
Rent 1.8% 1.9% 1.6% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 0.8% 1.3% 1.5%
other costs 2.4% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 1.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% 2.4%
Cost of equipment and software licenses 2.5% 3.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9%
SG&A expenses 21.7% 20.7% 19.5% 19.2% 19.3% 17.5% 16.8% 16.9% 17.4%
Employee costs 12.5% 12.6% 11.8% 11.7% 10.9% 11.4% 11.4% 11.2% 11.3%
Depreciation 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7%
Provision of doubtful debts and advances 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.8% -0.1% -0.3% -0.3% -0.1%
Rent 1.5% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9%
Travel 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8%
Communication 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Recruitment and training 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%
Professional fees 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
Research and development 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Other costs 3.5% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8%
Source: Company data
Customers continue to spend
Management stated that while it continued to monitor the macro-environment, customers
continued to spend on IT to improve efficiency or growth. It was seeing strong traction in
enterprise solutions (up 18% QoQ in dollar terms), which indicated a return of discretionary
spend.
All verticals except telecommunications grew in the quarter. Going forward, management
expects the vertical to grow, albeit at a slower pace compared to the rest of the company.
Transportation and hi-tech verticals posted double-digit growth in the quarter in dollar
terms.
Enterprise solutions spend
up 18% QoQ in dollar terms
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Figure 13: TCS quarterly operating metrics
Mar 09 Jun 09 Sep 09 Dec 09 Mar 10 Jun 10 Sep 10 Dec 10 Dec 08
Employee metrics
Total (incl. Indian subsidiary) 143,761 141,642 141,962 149,654 160,429 163,700 174,417 186,914 198,614
Total (excl. Indian subsidiary) 126,150 123,404 123,092 130,509 140,619 142,939 153,168 163,995 175,373
Gross addition (excl. Indian subsidiary) 3,522 2,828 5,530 11,377 14,640 8,464 17,121 16,847 19,324
Net addition (excl. Indian subsidiary) 521 (2,119) 320 7,417 10,110 2,320 10,229 10,827 11,700
Attrition (%) 11.4% 11.5% 11.4% 11.5% 11.8% 13.1% 14.1% 14.4% 14.4%Attrition no. of people 3,001 4,947 5,210 3,960 4,530 6,144 6,892 6,020 7,624
Utilisation (%)
Blended with trainees 69.4% 71.3% 73.6% 77.2% 74.3% 74.8% 77.7% 77.1% 75.1%
Blended without trainees 79.7% 79.2% 79.5% 81.1% 81.8% 82.6% 83.8% 83.8% 82.4%
Client metrics
Revenue concentration
Top client (%) 4.7% 5.7% 6.8% 8.1% 8.2% 8.1% 8.0% 7.7% 7.4%
Top 5 clients (%) 18.6% 19.4% 20.5% 21.5% 21.8% 22.0% 22.1% 21.9% 21.4%
Top 10 clients (%) 26.9% 28.0% 28.9% 29.9% 30.2% 30.5% 30.1% 30.1% 29.6%
Active clients 985 933 896 917 917 930 936 959 969
New clients 36 26 30 32 39 36 30 35 39
Repeat business (%) 95.6% 99.7% 98.2% 96.5% 95.7% 98.4% 98.3% 97.6% 97.1%
Project type break-up of revenues
Fixed price (%) 47.1% 47.4% 47.2% 48.0% 48.7% 49.1% 49.0% 49.7% 49.5%
Time & Material (%) 52.9% 52.6% 52.8% 52.0% 51.3% 50.9% 51.0% 50.3% 50.5%
Revenue break-up by delivery location
Onsite (%) 48.2% 44.4% 42.7% 42.5% 43.6% 43.6% 43.9% 43.7% 44.7%
Offshore (%) 4.1% 5.2% 6.2% 6.2% 5.4% 5.2% 5.0% 4.9% 5.0%
GDC (%) 47.7% 50.4% 51.1% 51.3% 51.0% 51.2% 51.1% 51.4% 50.3%
Key industry break up of revenues
Financial Services (%) 42.8% 43.9% 45.0% 45.0% 44.4% 44.7% 44.0% 44.6% 44.0%
Manufacturing (%) 9.8% 9.2% 8.7% 8.3% 8.3% 7.4% 7.4% 7.2% 7.5%
Telecom (%) 13.1% 12.6% 12.0% 12.1% 12.1% 12.7% 12.8% 11.9% 11.0%
Retail and distribution (%) 12.0% 12.2% 12.0% 12.0% 12.3% 11.0% 10.9% 10.9% 11.2%
Key geographical break-up of revenues
Americas (%) 52.4% 52.3% 53.4% 52.5% 54.0% 55.0% 53.7% 53.5% 53.4%
UK (%) 17.9% 16.9% 16.5% 16.0% 15.2% 15.1% 15.3% 16.0% 15.5%
Europe (%) 10.8% 11.0% 10.6% 10.4% 10.0% 8.9% 9.1% 9.3% 9.9%
India (%) 8.2% 9.1% 7.3% 8.5% 8.9% 8.8% 9.9% 9.2% 8.8%
Source: Company data
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Outlook remains positiveIn line with positive commentary from Infosys management, TCS also maintained that the
environment remains strong. The company has guided to total gross hires of 60,000 in
FY3/12. In our view, there is substantial scope for upward revision to this number. Margins
could largely sustain at current levels.
Weak volume growth by both Infosys and TCS indicates that while the demandenvironment is good, it is not extraordinary. Taking a reality check on our estimates, we
reduce our EPS estimates by 5%/8% for FY12/13.
Positive management commentary
In line with positive commentary from Infosys management, TCS also maintained that the
environment remains strong. The deal pipeline is better than it was 12 months ago, pricing
could improve and nearly all verticals (except telecommunications) are exhibiting good
traction.
Conservative hiring guidance
The company has guided to making total gross hires of 60,000 personnel in FY3/12. In our
view, there is substantial scope for an upward revision to this number given that utilisation(including trainees) is fairly high at 75%.
Management indicated that it would aim for a fresher:lateral hiring ratio of 50:50 in FY13/12
versus the 45:55 ratio in FY3/11.
Margins could sustain at current level
The company plans to award wage hikes of 12-14% to its offshore employees and 2-4% to
its onsite employees. Management hopes to offset the impact by price increases, operating
leverage, utilisation increase (82-84% versus 77-78% historic) and improving efficiency.
Taking a reality check on estimates
Post results, we downgrade our revenue growth estimates to 27% and 26% over the nexttwo years. This, coupled with a slight change in our margin estimates, leads to a reduction
of 5%/8% in our EPS estimates.
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Figure 14: TCS changes to consolidated estimatesOld estimates New estimates % change
FY3/12E FY3/13E FY3/12E FY3/13E FY3/12E FY3/13E
Rs/US$ 44.7 44.7 44.5 44.5 -0.5% -0.5%
Revenues ($ mn) 10,649 13,630 10,410 13,076 -2.2% -4.1%
YoY growth ($) 29.8% 28.0% 27.2% 25.6%
Rs mn
Revenues (Rs mn) 476,119 609,396 463,240 581,862 -2.7% -4.5%YoY growth (Rs) 27.6% 28.0% 24.1% 25.6%
Gross profit 210,691 271,306 213,456 268,512 1.3% -1.0%
Gross margins 44.3% 44.5% 46.1% 46.1%
EBIT (Rs mn) 132,171 171,937 124,963 157,450 -5.5% -8.4%
EBIT margins 27.8% 28.2% 27.0% 27.1%
EBITDA 142,685 184,551 135,477 170,064 -5.1% -7.8%
EBITDA margins 30.0% 30.3% 29.2% 29.2%
PBT 135,540 178,004 129,431 164,278 -4.5% -7.7%
PAT 104,911 135,366 100,077 124,782 -4.6% -7.8%
Net margins 22.0% 22.2% 21.6% 21.4%
EPS (Rs/share) 53.60 69.16 51.13 63.75 -4.6% -7.8%
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
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the stock now trades at a P/E premium of 11% to Infosys and 20% to Wipro (FY12
estimates).
Figure 18: TCS versus Infosys 12M fwd P/E (consensus) Figure 19: TCS versus Wipro 12M fwd P/E (consensus)
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%20%
30%
40%
Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Company data Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Company data
Downgrade to NEUTRAL
Given strong share price performance, and high overweight in the investor portfolio, we
believe that the risk-reward is no more in our favour. With hardly 7% upside to our targetprice, we downgrade shares to NEUTRAL. We would be more positive on the stock closer
to Rs1,025 and less so around our target price of Rs1,275.
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FinancialsFigure 20: TCS summary financial estimatesYear-end 31 Mar (Rs mn) FY09A FY10A FY11A FY12E FY13E FY14E
Income statement
Net sales 278,129 300,289 373,245 463,240 581,862 713,376
Gross profit123,738 138,660 167,853 213,456 268,512 328,639Gross margins (%) 44.5% 46.2% 45.0% 46.1% 46.1% 46.1%
EBIT 66,044 79,591 103,904 124,963 157,450 190,092
EBIT margins (%) 23.7% 26.5% 27.8% 27.0% 27.1% 26.6%
Depreciation 5,766 7,208 7,990 10,514 12,614 14,714
EBITDA 71,810 86,799 111,894 135,477 170,064 204,806
EBITDA margins (%) 25.8% 28.9% 30.0% 29.2% 29.2% 28.7%
Total non-oper. income (4,673) 2,256 5,247 4,468 6,827 10,983
Pre-tax income 61,372 81,846 109,151 129,431 164,278 201,075
Income tax exp/(gains) 9,013 12,088 21,203 27,984 37,920 46,467
Net income 52,359 69,758 87,948 101,447 126,357 154,608
Net income after extra-ordinaries and minorities 51,746 68,729 86,829 100,077 124,782 152,797
EPS (Rs) 26.44 35.12 44.36 51.13 63.75 78.07
Balance sheetTotal current assets 121,941 138,149 171,948 230,512 318,130 438,063
Cash and short-term investments 14,839 46,774 47,401 73,448 122,152 199,233
Receivables and other current assets 107,102 91,376 124,547 157,064 195,978 238,830
Net fixed assets 37,490 41,706 52,340 60,479 67,865 73,151
Gross fixed assets 64,023 75,447 94,072 112,633 132,633 152,633
Less : depreciation 26,533 33,741 41,731 52,154 64,768 79,482
Capital work in progress - - - - - -
Other assets 50,989 58,518 89,929 74,969 74,969 74,969
Associates and long term investments 17,271 37,839 18,390 20,522 20,522 20,522
Total assets 227,691 276,213 332,608 386,481 481,485 606,704
Total current liabilities 61,433 56,197 64,837 87,769 109,515 133,461
Total LT liabilities 6,580 6,843 10,718 8,025 8,025 8,025
Total equity 156,545 209,404 252,389 286,319 359,577 460,849
Minority interest 3,133 3,768 4,663 4,368 4,368 4,368
Total liabilities 227,691 276,213 332,608 386,481 481,485 606,704
Cash flow statement
Net income 51,746 68,729 86,829 100,077 124,782 152,797Add : Depreciation 5,766 7,208 7,990 10,514 12,614 14,714Total gross cash flows 57,512 75,937 94,819 110,591 137,396 167,510Change in working capital (2,847) 10,491 (24,531) (9,584) (17,168) (18,906)Cash flow from operation 54,666 86,427 70,288 101,006 120,228 148,605Change in LT investments-share of profit (17,081) (20,568) 19,449 (2,132) - -Change in fixed asset (13,042) (11,424) (18,624) (18,653) (20,000) (20,000)Change in other asset (27,216) (7,529) (31,411) 14,961 - -Cash flow from investing (57,339) (39,522) (30,586) (5,824) (20,000) (20,000)Equity dividend (16,036) (45,779) (32,013) (51,524) (51,524) (51,524)Change in debt and liabilities (131) 898 4,770 (2,988) - -Change in equity (2,985) 29,910 (11,831) (14,624) 0 (0)Cash flow from financing (19,152) (14,971) (39,074) (69,135) (51,524) (51,524)Change in cash (21,826) 31,935 628 26,047 48,704 77,081
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
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Companies Mentioned (Price as of 22 Apr 11)HCL Technologies (HCLT.BO, Rs518.65, OUTPERFORM, TP Rs640.00)Hexaware Technologies (HEXT.BO, Rs69.35, UNDERPERFORM [V], TP Rs50.00)Infosys Technologies Ltd. (INFY.BO, Rs2909.25, NEUTRAL, TP Rs3400.00)Infotech Enterprises Ltd (INFE.BO, Rs153.80, UNDERPERFORM [V], TP Rs140.00, MARKET WEIGHT)Mindtree Ltd (MINT.BO, Rs391.00, UNDERPERFORM [V], TP Rs525.00)Mphasis Ltd (MBFL.BO, Rs453.25, NEUTRAL, TP Rs550.00, MARKET WEIGHT)Persistent Systems (PERS.BO, Rs395.75, OUTPERFORM, TP Rs450.00)
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS.BO, Rs1191.65, NEUTRAL, TP Rs1275.00)Wipro Ltd. (WIPR.BO, Rs463.20, OUTPERFORM, TP Rs575.00)
Disclosure AppendixImportant Global Disclosures
I, Bhuvnesh Singh, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about all of the subject companies andsecurities and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed inthis report.
See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names.
3-Year Price, Target Price and Rating Change History Chart for INFY.BO
INFY.BO Closing
Price
Target
Price Initiation/
Date (Rs) (Rs) Rating Assumption
23-Jun-08 1,847.5 2150
14-Jul-08 1,556.1 2050
24-Sep-08 1,523.7 1800 N
13-Oct-08 1,319.65 1400
24-Nov-08 1,196.2 1650 O
18-May-09 1,769.85 1825
13-Jul-09 1,767.95 1950
2-Sep-09 2,165.2 2550
11-Dec-09 2,454.75 2900
14-Apr-10 2,782.35 3150
18-Oct-10 3107 3575
11-Jan-11 3,329.25 4050
18-Apr-11 2,905.2 3400 N
21502050
1800
1400
16501825
1950
2550
2900
3150
3575
4050
3400
N
O
N
1101
1601
2101
2601
3101
3601
24-Apr
-08
24-Jun
-08
24-Aug
-08
24-Oct-
08
24-Dec
-08
24-Feb
-09
24-Apr
-09
24-Jun
-09
24-Aug
-09
24-Oct-
09
24-Dec
-09
24-Feb
-10
24-Apr
-10
24-Jun-10
24-Aug
-10
24-Oct-
10
24-Dec
-10
24-Feb
-11
Closing Price Target Price Initiation/Assumption Rating
Rs
O=Outperform; N=Neutral; U=Underperform; R=Restricted; NR=Not Rated; NC=Not Covered
3-Year Price, Target Price and Rating Change History Chart for TCS.BO
TCS.BO Closing
Price
Target
Price Initiation/
Date (Rs) (Rs) Rating Assumption
23-Jun-08 429.525 550
25-Jun-08 438.875 O
7-Jul-08 425 537.5
17-Jul-08 391 487.5
24-Sep-08 361.375 375 U
23-Oct-08 266 312.5
24-Nov-08 258.675 362.5 O
21-Apr-09 272.95 325
18-May-09 371.925 362.5
20-Jul-09 500.6 500
2-Sep-09 536.6 625
19-Oct-09 607.5 650
12-Jan-10 748 810
18-Jan-10 800.6 900
20-Apr-10 789 940
22-Oct-10 1038 1175
11-Jan-11 1108 1325
550538488
375313
363325
363
500
625 650
810
900940
1175
1325
O
UO
222
422
622
822
1022
1222
24-Apr
-08
24-Jun
-08
24-Aug
-08
24-Oct-
08
24-Dec
-08
24-Feb
-09
24-Apr
-09
24-Jun
-09
24-Aug
-09
24-Oct-
09
24-Dec
-09
24-Feb
-10
24-Apr
-10
24-Jun-10
24-Aug
-10
24-Oct-
10
24-Dec
-10
24-Feb
-11
Closing Price Target Price Initiation/Assumption Rating
Rs
O=Outperform; N=Neutral; U=Underperform; R=Restricted; NR=Not Rated; NC=Not Covered
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Tata Consultancy Services
(TCS.BO / TCS IN) 14
3-Year Price, Target Price and Rating Change History Chart for WIPR.BO
WIPR.BO Closing
Price
Target
Price Initiation/
Date (Rs) (Rs) Rating Assumption
23-Jun-08 287.73 318
7-Jul-08 264 300
21-Jul-08 223.59 240 U
24-Sep-08 222.45 216
23-Oct-08 163.35 19824-Nov-08 140.19 204 O
18-May-09 254.79 240 N
23-Jul-09 273.75 270
2-Sep-09 332.73 360 O
28-Oct-09 374.07 408
12-Jan-10 416.73 474
21-Jan-10 425.49 489
25-Oct-10 430.3 475 N
24-Jan-11 444.35 515
21-Feb-11 450.25 575 O
318300
240216
198204
240 270
360
408
474489 475
515
575
ON
O
N
O
U
120
170
220270
320
370
420
470
520
570
24-Apr
-08
24-Jun
-08
24-Aug
-08
24-Oct-
08
24-Dec
-08
24-Feb
-09
24-Apr
-09
24-Jun
-09
24-Aug
-09
24-Oct-
09
24-Dec
-09
24-Feb
-10
24-Apr
-10
24-Jun-10
24-Aug
-10
24-Oct
-10
24-Dec
-10
24-Feb
-11
Closing Price Target Price Initiation/Assumption Rating
Rs
O=Out erform; N=Neutral; U=Under erform; R=Restricted; NR=Not Rated; NC=Not Covered
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's totalrevenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities.Analysts stock ratings are defined as follows:Outperform (O): The stocks total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark* by at least 10-15% (or more, depending on perceived
risk) over the next 12 months.Neutral (N): The stocks total return is expected to be in line with the relevant benchmark* (range of 10-15%) over the next 12 months.Underperform (U): The stocks total return is expected to underperform the relevant benchmark* by 10-15% or more over the next 12 months.*Relevant benchmark by region: As of 29th May 2009, Australia, New Zealand, U.S. and Canadian ratings are based on (1) a stocks absolute totalreturn potential to its current share price and (2) the relative attractiveness of a stocks total return potential within an analysts coverage universe**,with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities.Some U.S. and Canadian ratings may fall outside the absolute total return ranges defined above, depending on market conditions and industryfactors. For Latin American, Japanese, and non-Japan Asia stocks, ratings are based on a stocks total return relative to the average total return ofthe relevant country or regional benchmark; for European stocks, ratings are based on a stocks total return relative to the analyst's coverageuniverse**. For Australian and New Zealand stocks a 22% and a 12% threshold replace the 10-15% level in the Outperform and Underperform stockrating definitions, respectively, subject to analysts perceived risk. The 22% and 12% thresholds replace the +10-15% and -10-15% levels in theNeutral stock rating definition, respectively, subject to analysts perceived risk.**An analyst's coverage universe consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector.Restricted (R): In certain circumstances, Credit Suisse policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain types of communications,
including an investment recommendation, during the course of Credit Suisse's engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain othercircumstances.
Volatility Indicator [V]: A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has moved up or down by 20% or more in a month in at least 8 of the past 24months or the analyst expects significant volatility going forward.
Analysts coverage universe weightings are distinct from analysts stock ratings and are based on the expectedperformance of an analysts coverage universe* versus the relevant broad market benchmark**:Overweight: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.Market Weight: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.Underweight: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.*An analysts coverage universe consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector.**The broad market benchmark is based on the expected return of the local market index (e.g., the S&P 500 in the U.S.) over the next 12 months.
Credit Suisses distribution of stock ratings (and banking clients) is:
Global Ratings DistributionOutperform/Buy* 47% (62% banking clients)Neutral/Hold* 41% (58% banking clients)Underperform/Sell* 11% (51% banking clients)Restricted 2%
*For purposes of the NYSE and NASD ratings distribution disclosure requirements, our stock ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform most closely correspond to Buy,Hold, and Sell, respectively; however, the meanings are not the same, as our stock ratings are determined on a re lative basis. (Please refer to definitions above.) An investor'sdecision to buy or sell a security should be based on investment objectives, current holdings, and other individual factors.
Credit Suisses policy is to update research reports as it deems appropriate, based on developments with the subject company, the sector or themarket that may have a material impact on the research views or opinions stated herein.
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Tata Consultancy Services
(TCS.BO / TCS IN) 15
Credit Suisse's policy is only to publish investment research that is impartial, independent, clear, fair and not misleading. For more detail please refer to CreditSuisse's Policies for Managing Conflicts of Interest in connection with Investment Research:http://www.csfb.com/research-and-analytics/disclaimer/managing_conflicts_disclaimer.html
Credit Suisse does not provide any tax advice. Any statement herein regarding any US federal tax is not intended or written to be used, and cannotbe used, by any taxpayer for the purposes of avoiding any penalties.
See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names.Price Target: (12 months) for (INFY.BO)
Method: Our target price of Rs3,400 for Infosys is based on discounted cash flow (DCF) method. We assume a 22% near-term growth rate, 21%medium-term growth and 5% terminal growth. We use a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 14.5% to arrive at our target price.Risks: Risks to our Rs3,400 target price for Infosys Technologies include: 1) a weaker economic environment in the US leading to slower IT servicesspending; 2) stronger competition by global vendors in the offshore arena; 3) large clients of the company shifting a greater proportion of their workto their in-house centres; 4) greater-than-expected wage inflation; and 5) adverse currency movements.Price Target: (12 months) for (TCS.BO)Method: Our target price of Rs1,275 for TCS is based on discounted cash flow (DCF) method. We assume a 24% near-term growth rate, 19%medium-term growth and 3% terminal growth. We use a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 14.5% to arrive at our target price.Risks: Potential risks to our target price of Rs1275 for Tata Consultancy include 1) a slowdown in the US economy, which could lead to a slowdownin revenues, 2) Better margins that we expect, 3) Sharp appreciation or depreciation in the Rs vs. the $Price Target: (12 months) for (WIPR.BO)Method: Our target price of Rs575 for Wipro is based on discounted cash flow (DCF) method. We assume a 21% near-term growth rate, 19%medium-term growth and 3% terminal growth. We use a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 14.5% to arrive at our target price.Risks: Risks to our Rs575 target price for Wipro include: 1) a weaker economic environment in the US leading to slower IT services; 2) greater-than
expected wage inflation; 3) adverse currency movements on the downside and revenue and margin outperformance vs. peers on the upsidePlease refer to the firm's disclosure website at www.credit-suisse.com/researchdisclosures for the definitions of abbreviations typically used in thetarget price method and risk sections.
See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names.The subject company (INFY.BO, TCS.BO, WIPR.BO) currently is, or was during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of this report,a client of Credit Suisse.Credit Suisse provided investment banking services to the subject company (INFY.BO, TCS.BO, WIPR.BO) within the past 12 months.Credit Suisse expects to receive or intends to seek investment banking related compensation from the subject company (INFY.BO, TCS.BO,WIPR.BO) within the next 3 months.As of the date of this report, Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC makes a market in the securities of the subject company (INFY.BO).
Important Regional Disclosures
Singapore recipients should contact a Singapore financial adviser for any matters arising from this research report.
An analyst involved in the preparation of this report has visited certain material operations of the subject company (INFY.BO) within the past 12
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To the extent this is a report authored in whole or in part by a non-U.S. analyst and is made available in the U.S., the following are importantdisclosures regarding any non-U.S. analyst contributors:The non-U.S. research analysts listed below (if any) are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. The non-U.S. research analystslisted below may not be associated persons of CSSU and therefore may not be subject to the NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Bhuvnesh Singh, non-U.S. analyst, is a research analyst employed by Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch. Sunil Tirumalai, non-U.S. analyst, is a research analyst employed by Credit Suisse Securities (India) Private Limited. Sagar Rastogi, non-U.S. analyst, is a research analyst employed by Credit Suisse Securities (India) Private Limited.Taiwanese Disclosures: Reports written by Taiwan-based analysts on non-Taiwan listed companies are not considered recommendations to buy orsell securities under Taiwan Stock Exchange Operational Regulations Governing Securities Firms Recommending Trades in Securities toCustomers.
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Equity Research
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