Moscow, 20 November 2014 Moscow Conference 1

Russian RUB FX spot & derivatives markets in 2014

Dmitry Piskulov, Ph.D. (econ.)

Chairman of NFEA Board;

Member of Monetary Policy Council

of Association of regional banks ”Russia”

Current trends in RUB markets1. Continued RUB depreciation against USD

2. CBR monetary policy: inflation targeting is fully in force by 2015. BKT-RUB corridor abandoned

3. CBR increased Key rate from 5.5 to 9.5% - higher RUB %%

4. High capital outflow in the country: $120 bln. est. in 2014

5. RUB FX market volumes generally in decline

6. Declining RUB liquidity and volumes in domestic MM

7. Looming Banking crisis (capital adequacy down)

8. New refinancing from the CB: ccy repo,reverse FX swap

9. RUB increased use in CIS (prospects in BRICS)

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Positive trends• Improved current trade& C/A balance (reduction of

import)

• Government budget fulfilled because of increased energy export revenues in Ruble terms

• Sanctions bad = sanctions good : create incentives for replacing import with local productions

• Facing eastwards: stronger ties with Asian partners (China, Vietnam, Hong Kong, North Korea) – may use Ruble as foreign trade payment currency

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RUB FX trading volumes• Key features:• On-shore: Declining volumes of RUB on-shore FX due to

lower interbank trading, lower energy prices• Off-shore (London) RUB volumes fluctuate:

– Increased in April 2014– But may go down again in Oct 2014

• Increased volatility looming after 2015

• Draft Federal Law on regulation of retail Forex dealers (brokers) should pass second reading at State Duma – may potentially result in increased client FX flows to banks, require banks to create FX dealer subsMoscow, 20 November 2014 Moscow Conference 4

Average Daily Turnover of global FX market in 1986-2013

U$ Bln. 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2013

Net turnover

$355 $820 $1,527 $1,934 $3,971 $5,345

FX spot 212 394 568 631 1,488 2,046

Forwards143

58 128 209 475 680

FX swaps 324 734 954 1,759 2,228

FX options

CCY swaps

n.a.

n.a.

87

10

119

21

207

43

337

54

Moscow, 20 November 2014

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CCYshares in global FX 2007-2013Rank Currency Share % 2007 Share % 2010 Share % 2013

1 USD (US Dollar) 86.3 84.9 87.0

2 EUR (Euro) 37.0 39.1 33.4

3 JPY (Japanese yen) 16.5 19.0 23.0

4 GBP (Pound sterling) 15.0 12.9 11.8

5 AUD (Australian dollar) 6.7 7.6 8.6

6 CHF (Swiss frank) 6.8 6.4 5.2

7 CAD (Canadian dollar) 4.2 5.3 4.6

8 MXN (Mexican peso) 1.3 1.3 2.5

9 CNY, CNH 0.5 (22-th) 0.9 (17-th) 2.2

… ………………………

12 RUB (Russian Ruble) 0.8 (17-th) 0.9 (16-th) 1.6

19 BRL (Braz. real) 0.5 0.7 1.1

20 INR (Indian rupee) 0.7 0.9 1.0 6Moscow, 20 November 2014

Moscow Conference

Largest on-shore FX mkt 2007,2013Rank

Country 2007 ADT, $ bln.

2007 Share global %

2013 ADT, $ bln.

2013 Share global %

1 UK 1,359 34.1 % 2,726 40.9%

2 USA 664 16.6 % 1,263 18.2%

3 Singapore 231 5.8 % 383 5.7%

4 Japan 238 6.0 % 374 5.6%

5 Hong Kong 175 4.4 % 274 4.1%

6 Switzerland 242 6.1 % 216 3.2%

7 France 120 3.0 % 190 2.8%

8 Australia 170 4.2 % 182 2.7%

9 Netherlands! 25 0.6 % 112 1.7%

10 Germany 99 2.5 % 111 1.7%

11 Denmark 86 2.2 % 103 1.5%

12 Canada 60 1.5 % 65 1.0%

13 Russia 50 1.3 % 61 0.9% 7

Largest USD/CCY pairs in global FX

2010 2013

EUR/USD 28% 24.1%

USD/JPY 14% 18.3%

GBP/USD 9% 8.8%

USD/AUD 6% 6.8%

USD/others 11.2% 4.0%

USD/CAD 5% 3.7%

USD/CHF 4% 3.4%

USD/RUB … 1.5% (11-th)Moscow Conference 8Moscow, 20 November 2014

Global derivatives amounts• Notional principal amounts outstanding, trln.US$

By underlying asset June 2012 OTC Exchanges*

June 2014 OTC Exchanges*

Foreign exchange 66.7 0.33 74.8 + 0.38 +

Interest rate contracts 496.2 48.5 563.2 + 65.6 +

Equity linked contracts 5.3 5.2 6.9+ 7.5 +

Commodity contracts 3.0 2.2 - n.a

Credit default swap 26.9 n.a. 19.5 - n.a

Other 42.2 n.a. 24.8 n.a

Total contracts 641.3 691.5+

*Data for Exchange traded derivatives (futures&options) on Dec 2012 and Jun 2014 respectively Moscow, 20 Nov 2014 9

Russian domestic cash & derivatives markets 2014

• In 2013 CBR stopped provision of monthly statistics of volumes of FX and IR instruments, resumed in 2014 on short-tailed basis

US$ bln. (ADT) Cash (underlying) DerivativesOTC Exchange

FX instruments $50-68 bln. $2-3 $2-3 bln.

Interest Rate instruments

$10-11 bln.(IBL)

$10.5 (Repo)

$0.3-0.6 $0.06

Equity $15-18 bln. $0.1-0.2 $3-4 bln.

Commodity n.a. n.a. $0.2-0.5 bln

Credit derivatives n.a. 0.01 -

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Domestic FX market volumes 2003-2014 (all ccy vs USD/RUB)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

all CCY

USD/RUB2

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Moscow, 20 November 2014 Moscow Conference 12

Russian domestic FX spot market volumes (ADT) 2008-2014

Source: CBR, Moscow Exchange, NFEA

Month FX market ADT(hi,low),all currencies

MOEX

Jul 2008 $ 104.2 bln. $10.5 bln.

Oct 2009 $ 54.2 bln. $10.6 bln

Oct 2010 $ 66.7 bln. $11.3 bln

Oct 2011 $ 74.8 bln $13.9 bln.

Jan-Dec 2012 $ 56-74 bln $16.6 bln.

Jan-Dec 2013 $ 57-72 bln. $17.8 bln.

Jan-Oct 2014 $ 49-68 bln. $25.7 bn !

On-shore OTC FX volumes 2014

ADT bln.US$

FX spot* FX derivatives

2014 Q1 $66.2 bln. $2.8 bn.

2014 Q2 $57.4 bln $2.4 bln.

2014 Q3 $53.8 bln $2.3 bln.

2014 Q4

(October)

$51.2 bln. $3.9 bln.

Moscow, 20 Nov 201413

On-shore vs Off shore FX market 2008-13

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Apr 08 Oct 08 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14

Total FX on-shore

London RUB FX

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RUB markets outside RussiaTrading volumes(ADT) reported off-shore:

• FX instruments: $ 28-30 bln.

• Money market instruments: $ 1.0-2.0 bln.

• Interest rate derivatives: $ 0.3-0.5 bln.

• RUB bonds trading: $ 1-2 bln.

Total (FX,MM,Derivat.): $30 - 35 bln. daily

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Volumes of USD/RUB FX in London

Instrument Oct 2009 Apr 13 Oct 13 Apr 14

FX spot $1.9 bln $14.3 $10.7 $13.9

NDF $1.2 bln $4.2 $2.3 $2.1

Outrights $0.3 bln. $5.1 $1.3 $2.4

FX swaps $4.3 bln $8.7 $7.9 $8.0

Ccy swaps $0.1 bln $0.4 $0.2 $0.2

FX options $1.2 bln $1.7 $0.9 $1.9

Total: $9.0 bln $34.4 bln. $23.3 bln. $28.5 bln.Moscow, 20 November 2014 Moscow Conference 16

Bank of England UK FXJSC: ADT in 2009-14

Russian initiatives to promote

Ruble settlements for export• 24 April: meeting at First Vice-premier I.Shuvalov: MinFin

and MinEconomy were tasked to elaborate measures to increase Ruble payments avoid use of USD in export

• May: V.Putin adopted legislation enabling Russian exporters receive Rubles as export proceeds.

• August: Gazpromneft pioneer contract in Rub• September: I.Shuvalov “We need to reduce USD payments

with Asia. New export contracts should be in Rubles”

• THIS MAY INCREASE FX MARKET

TURNOVER in long-run

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RUB prospects as reserve CCY Rank

byshare

Currency CurrencyShare % 2013

Global GDP %In 2013

Rank by GDP

Share in COFFER (IMF)

Q4-13

1 USD (US Dollar) 87.0 22,7% (0) 61.2% (1)

2 EUR (Euro) 33.4 23,5% (1) 24,5% (2)

3 JPY (Japanese yen) 23.0 6.6% (3) 3,9% (4)

4 GBP (Pound sterling) 11.8 3.4% (6) 4.0% (3)

5 AUD (Australian dollar) 8.6 2,0% (12) 1,6% (6)

6 CHF (Swiss frank) 5.2 0.9% (20) 0,2%

7 CAD (Canadian dollar) 4.6 2,5% (11) 1,7% (5)

8 MXN (Mexican peso) 2.5 1,8% (14) ….

9 CNY, CNH 2.2 12,4% (2)

… ……………………… Others 2.9%

12 RUB (Russian Ruble) 1.6 2,9% (8-th)

19 BRL 1.1 3.0%

20 INR 1.0 2.5%

18

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About NFEA• Established: October 1999 in Moscow • Membership: institutional (local and global banks and brokers) operating in

Russian spot/forward foreign exchange , money markets and derivatives;• Management: the Board (28 market practitioners), 4 co-chairmen, 3 Committees

(on Market Indices; for Professionalism, Ethics & Education; on Legal Affairs) • Projects up to date:

– 1999-2001, 2006: Elaboration of Standards (Code of Conduct and Rules to Conduct Operations (Committee for Professionalism, Ethics & Education),

– Market indices: MosPrime Rate (2005, RUB money market reference rate), NFEA FX SWAP RATE – new index for USD/RUB and EUR/RUB forwards

- Standard Documentation for Russian OTC derivative transactions (Russian ISDA Agreement) – completed in 2009, new version in 2011 (approved FFMS)

- RUONIA – Russian analogue of EONIA, SONIA (since Sept 2010)- ROISFIX – OIS interest rates index (since April 2012)- CLS Bank: inclusion of Rub into CLS clearable currencies (since end 2011)

NFEA will merge with NSMA by end of 2015

Moscow, 20 November 2014

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Contact Details

12 Bolshaya Nikitskaya st, Moscow, 125009, Russia, Tel.+7 (495) 629-9510, 629-9709www.nva.ru, www.nfea.ru; www.ruonia.ru

@ The Copyright National Foreign Exchange Association, 2012 All rights reserved. Any reproduction is only permitted with prior consent of NFEA.