©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. MODULE 12 Negative Messages.
MORTGAGEMONITOR...2004-12 2005-12 2006-12 2007-12 2008-12 2009-12 2010-12 20 1 1-12 2012-12 2013-12...
Transcript of MORTGAGEMONITOR...2004-12 2005-12 2006-12 2007-12 2008-12 2009-12 2010-12 20 1 1-12 2012-12 2013-12...
JUNE 2015 REPORT
MONITORMORTGAGE
June 2015MONITORMORTGAGE
Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate.
© 2015 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
CONTENTS
1 | JUNE 2015 OVERVIEW
2 | JUNE FIRST LOOK FINDINGS
3 | YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE TRENDS
4 | NEGATIVE EQUITY ANALYSIS
5 | NON-MORTGAGE RELATED DEBT ANALYSIS
6 | APPENDIX
7 | DISCLOSURES
June 2015MONITORMORTGAGE
Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate.
© 2015 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
JUNE 2015 OVERVIEW
Each month, the Black Knight Mortgage Monitor looks at a variety of issues related to the mortgage and financial services industry.
This month, as always, Black Knight takes a closer look at the high-level mortgage performance statistics as reported in the company’s most recent First Look report. From there, the report examines several key mortgage performance metrics year-to-date, looking specifically at rates of improvement and how they compare to historical trends.
Next, leveraging data from the Black Knight Home Price Index, the Mortgage Monitor revisits the current state of negative equity among the active mortgage universe, finding significant improvement there. It also looks at how the negative equity situation is playing out on both geographic and home price tier levels.
Finally, by merging loan level data from the company’s industry leading McDash mortgage performance database with Equifax ABS CRI Servicing data via the McDash Credit Module, Black Knight analyzes U.S. mortgage holders’ levels of non-mortgage related debt. The report looks at the issue both in terms of the types of debt being carried as well as how that debt is distributed among different mortgage investor categories.
In producing the Mortgage Monitor, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services aggregates, analyzes and reports upon the most recently available mortgage performance data from the company’s McDash loan-level database. For more information on McDash or Black Knight Data & Analytics in general, please call 844-474-2537 or email [email protected].
June 2015MONITORMORTGAGE
Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate.
© 2015 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
JUNE FIRST LOOKFINDINGS
Here we have an overview of findings from Black Knight’s ‘First Look’ at June mortgage performance data. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s McDash loan-level mortgage performance database. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.
Jun-15Month-over-
month changeYear-over-year
change
4.82% -2.90% -15.53%
1.46% -2.11% -22.55%
79,000 -3.54% -10.53%
1.40% 3.58% 46.55%
1.91% -4.89% 10.76%
2,444,000 -69,000 -439,000
895,000 -27,000 -260,000
739,000 -15,000 -212,000
3,183,000 -85,000 -651,000
Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure:
Number of properties that are 90 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure:
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:
Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure:
Total U.S. foreclosure starts:
Monthly Prepayment Rate (SMM):
Foreclosure Sales as % of 90+:
Total U.S. foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate:
12 Month Trend
Total U.S. loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure):
» In Black Knight’s ‘First Look’ report, a high-level view at the month’s mortgage performance data, we saw delinquencies decrease by nearly 3 percent from May, bringing the national rate down to 4.82 percent
» The national foreclosure inventory rate continued its long term trend of improvement, falling 2.11 percent to 1.46 percent of mortgages being in active foreclosure
» Foreclosure starts fell as well, declining 3.54 percent for a total of 79K starts in June
» Prepayment rates (Single Month Mortality) rose in June, increasing 3.58 percent for the month, and up over 46 percent from last year
» Total non-current inventory (everything 30 or more days past due, or in foreclosure) declined by 85K, nearly reversing May’s increase and bringing the total to 3,183,000
June 2015MONITORMORTGAGE
Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate.
© 2015 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE TRENDS
-13.7% -14.6%
-2.3% -2.9%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2006-06 2007-06 2008-06 2009-06 2010-06 2011-06 2012-06 2013-06 2014-06 2015-06
Per
cen
tag
e C
han
ge
in D
elin
qu
ency
Rat
e
Historical Delinquency Rate Changes for June
6-Month 1-Month
June M/M DQ rate improvements only seen twice in the past 10 years; both followed Sunday/
Holiday month-ends
2015 delinquency rate improvement: Best first half in over 10 years
» Here we look at historical delinquency rate changes for the month of June, where we see that month-over-month improvements have only been seen twice in the past ten years
» Both occurrences of June improvements in delinquency rates followed Mays that ended on either Sundays or holidays
» 2015 has seen the best 6 month start with regard to delinquency rate improvement in over 10 years
» Looking at year-over-year improvement, June’s decline of 15.5 percent is the highest rate of improvement since March 2014, and the second highest since 2011
Here we examine several key mortgage performance metrics year-to-date, looking specifically at rates of improvement and how they compare to historical trends. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s McDash loan-level mortgage performance database. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.
June 2015MONITORMORTGAGE
Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate.
© 2015 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
» Foreclosure inventory reduction has slowed to -22.6% year-over-year; this is the lowest level seen since early 2013
» As foreclosure starts as a percent of remaining inventory rise, increasing the inflow side of the equation, the rate of improvement in foreclosure inventory slows
» Still, the national inventory of loans in foreclosure is down by over 210K since this time last year
-8%
0%
8%
16%
24%
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
2006
-06
2007
-06
2008
-06
2009
-06
2010
-06
2011
-06
2012
-06
2013
-06
2014
-06
2015
-06
Fo
recl
osu
re S
tart
s as
% o
f 90
+ D
Q In
ven
tory
Per
cen
tag
e C
han
ge
in D
elin
qu
ency
Rat
e
90+ Day Delinquencies
Year-over-Year Change in 90+ DQ Rate (Left Axis) Foreclosure Starts as % of 90+ DQ (Right Axis)
90+ DQ inventory declining at fastest rate since 2011
Foreclosure start rate up to 8.5% in the first 6 months of 2015 vs. 7.3% last year
-22.8%
YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE TRENDS
» At a nearly 23 percent reduction, the current rate of year-over-year improvement in serious delinquencies (those loans 90 or more days past due, but not yet in foreclosure) is the highest seen in four years
» There are now over 260K fewer seriously delinquent borrowers than one year ago, and we are seeing the lowest rate of new seriously delinquent inflow in over 10 years
» The rate of foreclosure starts as a percentage of 90+ day delinquent inventory is up slightly from last year
» We have also seen elevated rates of loans curing to current status from 90+ days delinquent in early 2015
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
2006
-06
2007
-06
2008
-06
2009
-06
2010
-06
2011
-06
2012
-06
2013
-06
2014
-06
2015
-06
Per
cen
tag
e C
han
ge
in F
ore
clo
sure
Inve
nto
ry
Rat
e
Year-over-Year Change in Pre-Sale Foreclosure Inventory Rate
Foreclosure inventory reduction has slowed to -22.6% YoY; lowest level since early 2013
June 2015MONITORMORTGAGE
Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate.
© 2015 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE TRENDS
» Even with increased inflow as a percent of remaining inventory (see previous chart), foreclosure outflow remains steady, even on aged inventory
» Looking at a series of 6-month static pool analysis of active foreclosure inventory, we see that 23 percent of all active foreclosures entering 2015 have gone to sale or been liquidated over the past 6 months
» An additional 7 percent of loans that began 2015 in active foreclosure have reverted to current status, and are now performing mortgages
» This 30 percent aggregate (loans either liquidated or returned to performing status) is near a post-crisis high
» 22 percent of severely delinquent loans (two years or more past due) that entered 2015 in active foreclosure have gone to sale or been liquidated over the past 6 months – the highest outflow seen since 2009
7%
23%
3%
22%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2005
-12
2006
-06
2006
-12
2007
-06
2007
-12
2008
-06
2008
-12
2009
-06
2009
-12
2010
-06
2010
-12
2011
-06
2011
-12
2012
-06
2012
-12
2013
-06
2013
-12
2014
-06
2014
-12
Sh
are
of
Sta
rtin
g F
ore
clo
sure
Inve
nto
ry
Start Date of 6-Month Roll Observation
6-Month Rolls of Active Foreclosure Inventory (By Days DQ)
Now Current (All) FC Sale/Liquidated (All) Now Current (>2 Years DQ) FC Sale/Liquidated (>2 Years DQ)
23% of all active foreclosures entering 2015 have gone to sale or been liquidated over the past 6
months; an additional 7% are now performing on their mortgage
June 2015MONITORMORTGAGE
Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate.
© 2015 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
» In just the first five months of 2015, the population of borrowers in negative equity positions has dropped by 26 percent to 6.1 percent of active mortgages. This year’s improvement outpaces the 20 percent reduction seen during the same time span last year.
» There are one million fewer underwater borrowers than there were at the start of the year
» Though roughly 3 million borrowers remain underwater on their mortgages, this represents a 79 percent improvement from the 15 million who were in negative equity positions at the peak in 2010
0.29 MM .7%
15.03 MM 28.9%
4.15 MM 8.2% 3.09 MM
6.1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
MM
2MM
4MM
6MM
8MM
10MM
12MM
14MM
16MM
18MM
2004
-12
2005
-12
2006
-12
2007
-12
2008
-12
2009
-12
2010
-12
2011
-12
2012
-12
2013
-12
2014
-12
2015
-05
Neg
ativ
e E
qu
ity
Rat
e
Nu
mb
er o
f B
orr
ow
ers
Negative Equity Over Time
Number of Borrowers Negative Equity Rate (Right Axis)
Underwater inventory has dropped by 26% year-to-date
NEGATIVE EQUITY ANALYSIS
Here, we leverage data from the Black Knight Home Price Index to revisit the state of negative equity among the active mortgage universe, while looking at how the situation is playing out on both geographic and home price tier levels. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.
June 2015MONITORMORTGAGE
Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate.
© 2015 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
NEGATIVE EQUITY ANALYSIS
» Reductions in negative equity populations have been seen in all 50 states year-to-date; here we look at the top five states by reduction in underwater inventory so far in 2015
» California saw the largest reduction in volume, with 158K fewer borrowers (a 34% reduction) underwater than at the start of the year; likewise, California’s home price appreciation (HPA) rate has been 6.3 percent since December, as compared to the national average of 4.1 percent
» Florida saw the second largest volume reduction at 142K, but that equates to only a 22 percent reduction in the state’s population of underwater borrowers; this slower rate of reduction has been driven in large part by the state’s HPA of 3.2 percent since December which is below the national average
» In Michigan – which saw HPA of 5.8 percent since December – only 66K borrowers moved out of negative equity positions, but this number represented 40 percent of the state’s starting underwater population
» These five states account for nearly half of the overall national reduction in underwater borrowers from the start of 2015
3.9% 11.9% 10.4% 7.1% 11.0%310,000 498,000 260,000 100,000 136,000
10% 16% 8% 3% 4%
Remaining Rate, Volume, and Share of Negative Equity Inventory
0%
20%
40%
0K
50K
100K
150K
CA FL IL MI MD P
erce
nt
Red
uct
ion
Red
uct
ion
in V
olu
me
Year-to-Date Negative Equity Reduction (Top 5 States by Volume)
158k 142k
90k66k 50k
34%22% 26%
40%27%
June 2015MONITORMORTGAGE
Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate.
© 2015 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
NEGATIVE EQUITY ANALYSIS
» Nevada and New Jersey have the highest remaining rates, with 13.7 and 12 percent of borrowers underwater in those states, respectively, while Florida has highest volume at nearly 500K
» Though Nevada ranks highest by negative equity rate, with 80K underwater borrowers, the state is 13th by volume; Florida has over 6X the negative equity inventory of Nevada
» Other states in the top 5 by volume are California (310K) Illinois (260K), OH (187K), and New Jersey (183k); together with Florida, these five make up 47 percent of the nation’s underwater population
» New Jersey stands out in this analysis as the state has seen only a 17 percent reduction in negative equity population year-to-date vs. the national average of 26 percent, helping it to surpass Florida as number 2 by rate
Negative Equity Rates and Volumes
* Figures as of May Month-End
June 2015MONITORMORTGAGE
Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate.
© 2015 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
NEGATIVE EQUITY ANALYSIS
» Looking at home price tiers broken out at the Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) level, we see that lower value homes (bottom 20%) have seen the largest decrease in negative equity volume, but the lowest reduction rate
» Though 406K Tier 1 properties came out of negative equity since the start of the year, that represented just a 20 percent reduction in the overall number of underwater properties in that price tier
» Nationally, Tier 1 properties still have a 14.8 percent negative equity rate - nearly 2.5X the national average of 6.1 percent, and are over 8X more likely to be underwater than Tier 5 (top 20%) properties
» The 1.6 million underwater borrowers in Tier 1 properties represent 51 percent of the nation’s remaining negative equity population, and that share is growing
14.8% 6.4% 4.2% 2.9% 1.7%1,579,000 645,000 412,000 280,000 178,000
51% 21% 13% 9% 6%
Remaining Rate, Volume, and Share of Negative Equity Inventory
Tier 1 (Bottom 20%) Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5 (Top 20%) 0%
10%
20%
30%
0K
100K
200K
300K
400K
Per
cen
t R
edu
ctio
n
Red
uct
ion
in V
olu
me
Negative Equity Reduction by Price Tier
*Price tiers identified at the CBSA level
406k271k
182k 126k 75k
20%30% 31% 31% 30%
June 2015MONITORMORTGAGE
Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate.
© 2015 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
» Taking into account real estate agent commissions and seller-paid costs (roughly 8 percent of sale price on average), some homeowners may still be ‘locked out’ of selling their homes due to their current equity positions
» This chart looks at borrowers with less than 8 percent equity in their homes over time
» While down significantly from the roughly 20 million homeowners who were ‘locked out’ of selling their homes from 2010-2011, today some 5.7 million homeowners lack the 8 percent equity necessary
» The 8 percent figure isn’t a hard number, but an estimate; homeowners can reduce those costs in a variety of ways (e.g., For Sale By Owner, negotiating down real estate agent fees, etc.)
2.8M
3.4M
6.0M
12.0
M 18
.1M
19.6
M
20.2
M
20.1
M
15.4
M
9.4M
7.4M
5.7M
0M
5M
10M
15M
20M
25M
2004
-12
2005
-12
2006
-12
2007
-12
2008
-12
2009
-12
2010
-12
2011
-12
2012
-12
2013
-12
2014
-12
2015
-05
Vo
lum
e o
f F
irst
Lie
n M
ort
gag
e H
old
ers
Number of Borrowers with Less than 8 Percent Equity
*Includes borrowers in a negative equity position
NEGATIVE EQUITY ANALYSIS
June 2015MONITORMORTGAGE
Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate.
© 2015 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
» U.S. mortgage holders are carrying the highest level of non-mortgage related debt in over 10 years
» Americans with mortgages are carrying $1,400 more non-mortgage related debt on average than they were one year ago, and nearly $2,600 more than in 2011
» Non-mortgage debt is a key component of home affordability - the more total debt and the higher monthly non-mortgage payments borrowers have, the less money is available to put toward a new home purchase, to qualify for refinancing or, potentially, to meet current mortgage obligations
$22,
817
$23,
297
$24,
304
$24,
261
$22,
992
$22,
230
$22,
412
$22,
759
$23,
412 $2
4,82
5
$21K
$21K
$22K
$22K
$23K
$23K
$24K
$24K
$25K
$25K
$26K
2006-04 2007-04 2008-04 2009-04 2010-04 2011-04 2012-04 2013-04 2014-04 2015-04
Avg
No
n-M
ort
gae
Rel
ated
Deb
t o
n A
ctiv
e F
irst
Lie
n
Mtg
s
Average Non-Mortgage Debt of U.S. Mortgage Holders
U.S mortgage holders are carrying $1,400 more non-mortgage related debt on average than one
year ago; nearly $2,600 more than in 2011
*Data set is limited to originations up to Q2-2014. Source: McDash merged with Equifax ABS CRI Servicing loan level data
NON-MORTGAGE RELATED DEBT ANALYSIS
Here, merging loan level data from the Black Knight’s industry leading McDash mortgage performance database with Equifax ABS CRI Servicing data via the McDash Credit Module, we examine U.S. mortgage holders’ levels of non-mortgage related debt. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.
» By far, the largest driver has been the rise in automobile debt, which accounted for 81 percent of the overall non-mortgage debt increase over the past four years
» Of the nearly $2,600 increase in overall non-mortgage related debt since 2011, auto debt has accounted for $2,094
» The share of mortgage holders carrying auto debt has risen from 43.4 percent to 48 percent over the past four years, marking a 10 percent increase
*Data set is limited to originations up to Q2-2014. Source: McDash merged with Equifax ABS CRI Servicing loan level data
$9,4
01
$9,0
96
$8,9
20
$8,2
68
$7,7
22
$7,6
54
$8,0
35
$8,2
41
$8,9
24
$9,7
49 $1
9,25
9
$18,
594
$18,
518
$17,
775
$17,
229
$17,
627
$18,
161
$18,
483
$19,
191
$20,
237
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
$K
$5K
$10K
$15K
$20K
$25K
2006-04 2007-04 2008-04 2009-04 2010-04 2011-04 2012-04 2013-04 2014-04 2015-04
% o
f B
orr
ow
ers
wit
h A
uto
Deb
t
Ave
rag
e A
uto
Deb
t
Auto Debt of Mortgage Holders
Avg Auto Debt (Incl $0 Balances) Avg Auto Debt (Excl $0 Balances) % of Borrowers with Auto Debt
Of the nearly $2,600 increase in non-mortgage related debt since 2011, auto debt has accounted for $2,094 (81%)
June 2015MONITORMORTGAGE
Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate.
© 2015 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
*Data set is limited to originations up to Q2-2014.Source: McDash merged with Equifax ABS CRI Servicing loan level data
$2,3
56
$2,8
18
$3,2
03
$3,6
50
$4,0
16
$4,3
18
$4,4
36
$4,9
00
$5,0
23
$5,2
83
$22,
484
$24,
529
$26,
164
$27,
608
$28,
682
$29,
757
$30,
647
$32,
048
$33,
232
$34,
968
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
$K
$5K
$10K
$15K
$20K
$25K
$30K
$35K
$40K
2006-04 2007-04 2008-04 2009-04 2010-04 2011-04 2012-04 2013-04 2014-04 2015-04 % o
f B
orr
ow
ers
wit
h S
tud
ent
Lo
an D
ebt
Ave
rag
e S
tud
ent
Lo
an D
ebt
Student Loan Debt of Mortgage Holders
Avg Student Debt (Incl $0 Balances) Avg Student Debt (Excl $0 Balances) % of Borrowers with Student Debt
15% of mortgage holders are carrying student loan debt, with average balances of nearly $35,000
» Student loan debt among U.S. mortgage holders is at all time high; 15 percent of mortgage holders are carrying student loan debt, with average balances of nearly $35,000
» In 2006, just 10 percent of mortgage holders were carrying student loan debt, marking a 44 percent increase over that 9-year span
» Average student loan debt (of borrowers carrying student loan debt) has increased by roughly 56 percent (from $22,500) during that same time frame
» Average student loan debt of all active mortgages (including those not carrying student loan debt) has more than doubled over the past 9 years
NON-MORTGAGE RELATED DEBT ANALYSIS
» Here we look at active, post-crisis originations (Q12009-Q22014) by investor category
» FHA’s market share of post-crisis mortgages with student loan debt (39 percent) is nearly twice that of those without (21 percent)
» Roughly one quarter of all active FHA loans carry student loan debt, as compared to just 13 percent of GSE loans
65% 51%
21% 39%
15% 10%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Without Student Loan Debt With Student Loan Debt
Sh
are
of
Act
ive
Fir
st L
ien
Mo
rtg
ages
Share of Active Post-Crisis Originations by Investor
GSE FHA/VA Private/Portfolio
FHA/VA loans make up 39% of active
post-crisis originations with
student loan debt, compared to 21% or mortgages without student loan debt
*Data set is limited to originations from Q1-2009 to Q2-2014. Source: McDash merged with Equifax ABS CRI Servicing loan level data
June 2015MONITORMORTGAGE
Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate.
© 2015 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
NON-MORTGAGE RELATED DEBT ANALYSIS
» Credit card balances of U.S. mortgage holders remain near post crisis lows, while the share of borrowers carrying credit card debt is up slightly up from 2013, but down from more than 86 percent in 2006 to below 83 percent today
» Average credit card debt among mortgage holders is up slightly ($200-$250) from last year, but relatively flat over the long term
» It appears that borrowers took on additional credit card debt during recession years (2008-2010), but balances have since been reduced (down ~$1600/borrower from 2009)
$7,2
05
$7,5
47
$8,3
91
$8,7
62
$8,0
24
$7,3
67
$7,1
78
$7,1
27
$6,9
67
$7,1
70
$8,3
49
$8,8
33
$9,7
88
$10,
294
$9,6
19
$8,9
16
$8,7
10
$8,7
25
$8,4
27
$8,6
84
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
$K
$2K
$4K
$6K
$8K
$10K
$12K
2006-04 2007-04 2008-04 2009-04 2010-04 2011-04 2012-04 2013-04 2014-04 2015-04
% o
f B
orr
ow
ers
wit
h C
red
it C
ard
Bal
ance
s
Ave
rag
e C
red
it C
ard
Bal
ance
Credit Card Debt of Mortgage Holders
Avg Balance (Incl $0 Balances) Avg Balance (Excl $0 Balances) % of Borrowers Carrying Balances
Bubble from 2008-2010 suggests that borrowers took on additional credit card debt during the recession.
Data set is limited to originations up to Q2-2014.Includes both Bank and Retail card accountsSource: McDash merged with Equifax ABS CRI Servicing loan level data
June 2015MONITORMORTGAGE
Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate.
© 2015 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
» Borrowers with FHA/VA loans currently carry the highest levels of non-mortgage related debt among the four groups shown, while at the same time having the lowest original loan amounts
» FHA borrowers carry the highest student loan and auto debt amounts, as well as highest total non-mortgage related debt, but carry the least credit card debt on average
» GSE borrowers, on the other hand, carry 24 percent lower overall non-mortgage debt than FHA loans, the lowest non-mortgage debt level of investor category
$8,1
71
$5,7
78
$5,6
55
$4,1
20
$6,2
09
$8,0
19
$7,8
67
$7,1
80
$12,
302
$10,
247
$9,8
46
$8,7
60
$29,
415
$27,
178
$26,
595
$22,
414
$K
$5K
$10K
$15K
$20K
$25K
$30K
FHA/VA Portfolio Private GSE
Ave
rag
e B
alan
ce (
Incl
ud
ing
$0
Bal
ance
s)
Non-Mortgage Related Debt by Investor
Avg Student Loan Debt Avg Credit Card Debt Avg Auto Debt Avg Total Non-Mortgage Debt
*Data set is limited to originations up to Q2-2014. Source: McDash merged with Equifax ABS CRI Servicing loan level data
» There is a clear correlation seen between non-mortgage debt, mortgage inquires and prepayments
» Borrowers with a recent mortgage inquiry on their credit report carry nearly $10K (40 percent) more debt on average than borrowers without
» Of those borrowers with a recent mortgage inquiry on their credit report, those who paid their loan in full in the month of observation carried $4,000 less non-mortgage related debt than those who did not
Based on April 2015 data; limited to loans originated prior to Q3-2014. “Mtg Inquiry” identified as any loan with a mortgage related inquiry reported within the past 4 months Source: McDash merged with Equifax ABS CRI Servicing loan level data
$23,951
$33,586 $33,923 $29,806
$10K
$15K
$20K
$25K
$30K
$35K
$40K
No Mtg Inquiry Mtg Inquiry Mtg Inquiry - Still Active Mtg Inquiry - Paid-in-Full
Ave
rag
e N
on
-Mo
rtg
age
Rel
ated
Deb
t
Non-Mortgage Related Debt by Mortgage Inquiry
Borrowers with a recent mortgage inquiry on their credit report carry nearly $10K (40%) more debt on
average than borrowers not inquiring about a new mortgage
Of those with an inquiry; loans that paid in full in April carried $4,000 less
debt than those that remain active
NON-MORTGAGE RELATED DEBT ANALYSIS
June 2015MONITORMORTGAGE
Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate.
© 2015 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
» Loan counts and average days delinquentMonth
TOTAL ACTIVE COUNT 30 DAYS 60 DAYS 90+ DAYS FC
Total Non-Current FC Starts
Average Days Delinquent for
90+
Average Days Delinquent for
FCRatio of
90+ to FC1/31/05 46,665,529 1,176,231 330,190 440,668 264,483 2,211,573 48,144 240 320 166.6%1/31/06 49,818,159 1,222,411 377,859 523,003 252,572 2,375,846 75,113 202 298 207.1%1/31/07 52,662,640 1,402,095 460,218 541,717 390,488 2,794,518 114,773 198 261 138.7%1/31/08 54,094,282 1,701,163 664,956 940,832 817,948 4,124,899 197,210 189 255 115.0%1/31/09 54,267,187 1,945,997 909,744 1,817,809 1,318,840 5,992,391 249,655 191 321 137.8%1/31/10 53,476,523 1,897,603 882,089 2,870,204 2,031,020 7,680,916 282,601 252 417 141.3%1/31/11 52,138,710 1,682,266 715,350 1,988,781 2,162,601 6,548,999 261,272 332 528 92.0%1/31/12 51,111,780 1,531,458 627,874 1,758,894 2,163,659 6,081,884 219,750 397 668 81.3%1/31/13 49,896,142 1,407,343 567,022 1,531,216 1,702,715 5,208,297 147,593 468 814 89.9%1/31/14 50,044,899 1,318,673 532,548 1,288,573 1,175,470 4,315,263 94,075 481 943 109.6%2/28/14 50,118,665 1,267,410 482,140 1,241,878 1,114,985 4,106,413 91,993 481 956 111.4%3/31/14 50,211,856 1,135,658 435,521 1,198,907 1,069,791 3,839,877 88,113 496 966 112.1%4/30/14 50,211,885 1,197,193 436,813 1,187,019 1,016,287 3,837,312 78,796 495 985 116.8%5/31/14 50,541,174 1,222,390 447,930 1,168,971 966,062 3,805,353 86,258 501 993 121.0%6/30/14 50,530,807 1,261,502 466,039 1,155,114 951,384 3,834,039 88,314 502 997 121.4%7/31/14 50,521,130 1,239,298 473,983 1,136,139 935,460 3,784,879 90,690 501 1,001 121.5%8/31/14 50,721,908 1,356,047 495,387 1,143,222 912,898 3,907,555 81,612 493 1,010 125.2%9/30/14 50,721,358 1,271,486 488,967 1,117,525 892,796 3,770,773 91,038 492 1,014 125.2%
10/31/14 50,727,094 1,191,454 466,798 1,100,801 857,824 3,616,877 81,437 490 1,024 128.3%11/30/14 50,783,150 1,422,073 503,548 1,162,841 828,682 3,917,144 73,862 507 1,016 140.3%12/31/14 50,819,278 1,251,925 483,525 1,132,301 820,177 3,687,928 89,357 515 1,010 138.1%1/31/15 50,567,011 1,227,669 473,772 1,111,816 814,513 3,627,770 94,347 515 1,009 136.5%2/28/15 50,628,011 1,210,788 434,339 1,067,411 799,956 3,512,494 79,740 531 1,004 133.4%3/31/15 50,574,334 1,019,050 389,680 970,782 782,155 3,161,667 94,138 542 1,003 124.1%4/30/15 50,601,281 1,074,851 388,123 952,481 763,531 3,178,986 73,547 544 1,011 124.7%5/31/15 50,648,417 1,184,139 407,107 922,072 754,422 3,267,740 81,944 535 1,013 122.2%6/30/15 50,715,136 1,136,795 412,260 894,692 739,498 3,183,244 79,018 533 1,012 121.0%
APPENDIX
» June 2015 Data SummaryJun-15
Monthly Change
YTD Change
Yearly Change
Delinquencies 4.82% -2.90% -13.39% -15.53%Foreclosure 1.46% -2.11% -9.47% -22.55%Foreclosure Starts 79,000 -3.54% -16.22% -10.53%
Seriously Delinquent (90+) or in Foreclosure 3.22% -2.65% -15.41% -22.70%New Originations (data as of May-15) 563K -8.4% 9.7% 15.3%
Jun-15 May-15 Apr-15 Mar-15 Feb-15 Jan-15 Dec-14 Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14Delinquencies 4.82% 4.96% 4.77% 4.70% 5.36% 5.56% 5.64% 6.08% 5.44% 5.67% 5.90% 5.64% 5.70%Foreclosure 1.46% 1.49% 1.51% 1.55% 1.58% 1.61% 1.61% 1.63% 1.69% 1.76% 1.80% 1.85% 1.88%Foreclosure Starts 79,000 81,900 73,500 94,100 79,700 94,300 89,400 73,900 81,400 91,000 81,600 90,700 88,300
Seriously Delinquent (90+) or in Foreclosure 3.22% 3.31% 3.39% 3.47% 3.69% 3.81% 3.84% 3.92% 3.86% 3.96% 4.05% 4.10% 4.17%New Originations 563K 615K 646K 507K 412K 514K 439K 506K 490K 503K 517K 523K
5.70
%
5.64
%
5.90
%
5.67
%
5.44
%
6.08
%
5.64
%
5.56
%
5.36
%
4.70
%
4.77
%
4.96
%
4.82
%
Total Delinquencies
523K
517K
503K
490K
506K
439K
514K
412K
507K
646K
615K
563K
New Originations
June 2015MONITORMORTGAGE
Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate.
© 2015 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
APPENDIX
» State-by-state rankings by non-current loan population
State Del % FC % Non-Curr %
Yr/Yr Change in
NC%
State Del % FC % Non-Curr %
Yr/Yr Change in
NC%
State Del % FC % Non-Curr %
Yr/Yr Change in
NC%National 4.8% 1.5% 6.3% -17.3% National 4.8% 1.5% 6.3% -17.3% National 4.8% 1.5% 6.3% -17.3%
MS 11.1% 1.6% 12.7% -9.4% OH 5.6% 1.7% 7.3% -17.3% DC 3.1% 2.1% 5.3% -21.6%NJ 5.6% 4.9% 10.6% -16.3% SC 5.6% 1.6% 7.3% -14.1% IA 3.7% 1.3% 5.1% -15.6%LA 8.4% 1.5% 9.9% -8.8% GA 6.4% 0.8% 7.2% -14.1% VA 4.2% 0.6% 4.7% -12.2%ME 6.2% 3.0% 9.1% -13.1% MA 5.2% 1.8% 6.9% -16.7% UT 4.0% 0.6% 4.6% -17.8%NY 5.2% 3.9% 9.1% -16.4% HI 3.6% 3.3% 6.9% -16.1% WA 3.1% 1.4% 4.5% -21.0%RI 7.1% 1.8% 8.8% -14.6% NM 4.4% 2.3% 6.6% -10.7% OR 3.0% 1.5% 4.5% -21.8%AL 7.8% 0.9% 8.8% -11.9% NV 4.5% 2.0% 6.5% -21.2% NE 3.8% 0.6% 4.4% -12.7%WV 7.1% 1.1% 8.2% -12.1% IL 4.6% 1.8% 6.4% -23.2% ID 3.1% 1.0% 4.1% -17.7%IN 6.3% 1.7% 8.0% -13.8% NC 5.4% 0.9% 6.3% -14.1% WY 3.3% 0.7% 4.0% -6.8%AR 6.6% 1.3% 8.0% -11.9% TX 5.8% 0.6% 6.3% -11.4% AZ 3.3% 0.6% 3.9% -14.0%FL 5.2% 2.8% 8.0% -28.8% KY 4.9% 1.4% 6.3% -16.1% CA 3.1% 0.5% 3.7% -18.7%DE 5.7% 2.2% 7.9% -12.7% VT 4.1% 2.0% 6.1% -15.1% AK 3.1% 0.4% 3.5% -15.5%PA 5.9% 1.9% 7.8% -15.3% MO 5.2% 0.8% 6.0% -13.3% MT 2.7% 0.7% 3.4% -13.6%TN 6.9% 0.8% 7.7% -12.9% KS 4.7% 1.1% 5.8% -10.6% SD 2.7% 0.7% 3.4% -6.0%MD 5.7% 1.8% 7.5% -17.7% WI 4.5% 1.3% 5.7% -15.6% MN 2.8% 0.5% 3.3% -18.9%CT 5.3% 2.2% 7.5% -18.7% NH 4.7% 0.9% 5.6% -17.0% CO 2.7% 0.4% 3.1% -20.2%OK 5.5% 1.9% 7.4% -10.0% MI 4.8% 0.6% 5.3% -20.1% ND 1.7% 0.5% 2.2% -14.6%
June 2015MONITORMORTGAGE
Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade SecretTM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate.
© 2015 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
DISCLOSURESPlease refer to the links below for specific disclosures relating to Product Definitions, Metrics Definitions and Extrapolation Methodology.
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