MORTGAGE MONITOR · 36 minutes ago · MORTGAGE MONITOR JUNE 2020 | 2 This month, as always, we...

JUNE 2020 REPORT

MORTGAGE MONITOR

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Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 2Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

This month, as always, we begin with a review of some of the high-level mortgage performance statistics reported in our most recent First Look report, with an update on delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment trends. Next, we take a deeper dive into select June performance highlights, with a focus on delinquency rates and how these trends compare to natural disasters, forbearance activity improvements, and the status of COVID-19-related forbearance plans.

Next, we take a closer look at July’s record low interest rate environment, including a breakdown of refinance numbers and soaring prepayment rates. Finally, we provide a geographical analysis on home affordability, including markets having affordability rates not seen since before the Great Recession and how this has increased buyer power.

In producing the Mortgage Monitor, Black Knight’s Data & Analytics division aggregates, analyzes and reports upon the most recently available data from the company’s vast mortgage and housing related data assets. Information is gathered from the McDash loan-level mortgage performance dataset, the Black Knight HPI and the company’s robust public property records database covering 99.9% of the U.S. population. For more information on gaining access to Black Knight’s data assets, please call 844-474-2537 or email [email protected].

JUNE 2020 OVERVIEW

MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE FIRST LOOK RELEASE

JUNE MORTGAGE PERFORMANCE

REFINANCE INCENTIVE & PREPAY ACTIVITY

AFFORDABILITY AND HOME PRICE TRENDS

APPENDIX

DISCLOSURES

DEFINITIONS

3

4

10

14

19

22

23

CONTENTS




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MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 3

Here we have an overview of findings from Black Knight’s ‘First Look’ at June mortgage performance data. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s McDash loan-level mortgage performance database. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.

The number of serious delinquencies rose sharply in June as the initial wave of borrowers financially impacted by COVID-19 missed their third mortgage payment.

JUNE OVERVIEW STATS

CHANGE IN DELINQUENCY RATE

The national delinquency rate improved for the first time in five

months, falling to 7.6%”

While total past due mortgages fell by 98,000, serious delinquencies

rose by 1.2 million

FORECLOSURE INVENTORY

At 192,000, June’s active foreclosure inventory was the lowest on record

dating back to 2000

Active foreclosure inventory is dwindling as federal foreclosure

moratoriums remain in place

PREPAYMENT RATE

Prepayment activity hit its highest level in 16 years

The growth was fueled by falling 30-year rates and surging refinance incentives

2.25% 4.21% 15.93%

JUNE 2020 FIRST LOOK RELEASE



https://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/BKI_MM_Jun2020_Chart01.pdf

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MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 4

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

2019

-07

2019

-08

2019

-09

2019

-10

2019

-11

2019

-12

2020

-01

2020

-02

2020

-03

2020

-04

2020

-05

2020

-06

MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES BY SEVERITY30 Days DQ 60 Days DQ 90+ Days DQ Total Delinquent

Here, we take a deeper dive into select June performance highlights, with a focus on the first drop in the national delinquency rate in five months, 90-day delinquencies reaching their highest levels since 2011, forbearance plan activity and how these numbers can be compared to past impacts from natural disasters. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s McDash loan-level mortgage performance database. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.

JUNE 2020 MORTGAGE PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS

» The national delinquency rate fell in June for the first time since January, as initial impacts of COVID-19 on mortgage performance began to crest

» Nearly 7.6% of mortgage holders remain delinquent, up from a record low 3.2% at the beginning of the year

» The number of borrowers 90 or more days past due surged in June to 1.87 million, the largest volume since 2011

» 90-day delinquencies could rise even higher in July given the secondary volume of new delinquencies seen in May and resulting elevated levels of 60-day delinquencies in June

» The number of early-stage delinquencies has mostly normalized, with 30-day delinquencies nearly back to their pre-COVID levels

» Delinquency numbers will be important to watch in August and September, especially if expanded unemployment benefits decline or expire

7.59%

4.39%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

11.00%

2000

-06

2001

-06

2002

-06

2003

-06

2004

-06

2005

-06

2006

-06

2007

-06

2008

-06

2009

-06

2010

-06

2011

-06

2012

-06

2013

-06

2014

-06

2015

-06

2016

-06

2017

-06

2018

-06

2019

-06

2020

-06

NATIONAL DELINQUENCY RATE – FIRST LIEN MORTGAGESDelinquency Rate 2000-2005 Average Record Low

NATIONAL DELINQUENCY RATE – FIRST LIEN MORTGAGES MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES BY SEVERITY







MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 5


» Delinquency trends seen so far for COVID-19 have largely followed the timing and magnitude of those seen after hurricanes Harvey and Irma in 2017

» Delinquencies peaked in the second month post-impact following hurricanes Harvey (+5.6%) and Irma (+5.6), as well as Katrina (+26.3%) in 2005

» Placing the “impact” date of COVID-19 in March, when wide-spread lockdowns were initially rolled out, delinquencies appear to have peaked in the second month “post-impact” during COVID-19 at +4.5%

» Serious delinquency (90+ day DQ) rates peaked in month three post-impact for Irma (+3.2%), and month four for Harvey (+3.4%) and Katrina (+13.9%)

» Likewise, serious delinquency rates spiked in June — the third month “post-impact” from COVID-19 — to 2.8% above pre-pandemic levels

» Following each of these major hurricane events, it took 11-18 months for delinquency rates to return to pre-disaster levels and 14-18 months for serious delinquencies to normalize

» If the COVID-19 recovery trajectory resembles that of recent hurricanes, which may be seen by some as an optimistic scenario, the mortgage and housing industries could be dealing with the pandemic fallout into 2022, or perhaps longer

-1%

0%

+1%

+2%

+3%

+4%

+5%

+6%

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Number of Months Since Event

DELINQUENCY RATE FOLLOWING NATURAL DISASTERS(DIFFERENCE IN DELINQUENCY RATE VS. 1-MONTH PRIOR TO THE EVENT)

Hurricane Harvey (2017) Hurricane Irma (2017) COVID-19

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Number of Months Since Event

90+ DAY DQ RATE FOLLOWING NATURAL DISASTERS(DIFFERENCE IN 90+ DAY DQ RATE VS. 1-MONTH PRIOR TO THE EVENT)

Hurricane Harvey (2017) Hurricane Irma (2017) COVID-19

DELINQUENCY RATE FOLLOWING NATURAL DISASTERS(DIFFERENCE IN DELINQUENCY RATE VS. 1-MONTH PRIOR TO THE EVENT)

90+ DAY DQ RATE FOLLOWING NATURAL DISASTERS(DIFFERENCE IN 90+ DAY DQ RATE VS. 1-MONTH PRIOR TO THE EVENT)






MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 6

» July payment activity is showing further month-over-month improvements on top of those seen in June

» If this trend holds true through the end of the month, we could see another decline in the national delinquency rate when July month-end data is reported

» While July payment activity still lags April, the overall improvement can still be viewed as a positive step towards recovery

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Day of Month

CUMULATIVE SHARE OF MORTGAGE PAYMENTS RECEIVEDApril 2020 May 2020 June 2020 July 2020 Black Knight’s Payment Tracker — which

provides daily insights into mortgage payment activity — sheds some positive news around July mortgage payment trends as well

CUMULATIVE SHARE OF MORTGAGE PAYMENTS RECEIVED






MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 7

» Overall forbearance activity continues to improve, though more slowly in recent weeks

» After seeing active forbearances fall by 435,000 in the first week of July, they only declined by an aggregate 25,000 over the following two weeks

» There are an estimated 4.1M homeowners in active COVID-19 forbearance plans, representing 7.8% of all active mortgages, as of July 21

» Despite challenges in reopening the economy, new forbearance plan volumes have remained relatively stable

» While new plan volumes increased by 20% week-over-week for the week ending July 21, they were flat from the month prior

» New plan volumes have averaged 78,000 per week through the first 3 weeks of July, slightly below June’s weekly average of 81,300

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Mar-24

Mar-31

Apr-07

Apr-14

Apr-21

Apr-28

May-05

May-12

May-19

May-26

Jun-02

Jun-09

Jun-16

Jun-23

Jun-30

Jul-07

Jul-14

Jul-21

Week Ending

NEW FORBEARANCE PLANS – BY WEEK

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

4500000

5000000

5500000

Mar

-24

Mar

-31

Apr

-07

Apr

-14

Apr

-21

Apr

-28

May

-05

May

-12

May

-19

May

-26

Jun-

02

Jun-

09

Jun-

16

Jun-

23

Jun-

30

Jul-0

7

Jul-1

4

Jul-2

1

Week Ending

ACTIVE COVID-19 FORBEARANCE PLANS Fannie/Freddie FHA/VA Other Total

ACTIVE COVID-19 FORBEARANCE PLANS NEW FORBEARANCE PLANS – BY WEEK







MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 8

» Mortgage servicers continue to process the initial wave of forbearance expirations, which were primarily scheduled to take place in June and July

» Entering June, nearly 2.5 million active forbearance plans were set to expire within the month, meaning June was the last forborne payment, with another 1.3 million scheduled to expire in July

» Nearly 1.8 million forbearance extensions have taken place over the last four weeks, with another 890,000 loans removed from forbearance , representing a 2:1 extension to removal ratio

» With the bulk of forbearance extensions being for an additional three months, an ‘echo wave’ of forbearance expirations has been generated

» With nearly 2.2 million active forbearance plans set to expire in September, another wave of forbearance extensions and removals may very well be seen in late September/early October

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

June July August September October November December

SCHEDULED FORBEARANCE EXPIRATIONS(LAST MONTH COVERED UNDER FORBEARANCE PLAN)

Entering June 2020 As of July 21st 2020

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

Mar

-24

Mar

-31

Apr

-07

Apr

-14

Apr

-21

Apr

-28

May

-05

May

-12

May

-19

May

-26

Jun-

02

Jun-

09

Jun-

16

Jun-

23

Jun-

30

Jul-0

7

Jul-1

4

Jul-2

1

Week Ending

FORBEARANCE PLAN EXTENSIONS & REMOVALS – BY WEEKForbearance Plan Removals Forbearance Plan Extensions

FORBEARANCE PLAN EXTENSIONS & REMOVALS – BY WEEK SCHEDULED FORBEARANCE EXPIRATIONS(LAST MONTH COVERED UNDER FORBEARANCE PLAN)







MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 9

» To date, an estimated 5.7 million homeowners have entered into COVID-19-related forbearance plans

» The gap has widened in July between those that have been in forbearance plans, and those that remain in active plans

» As of July 21, 28% of homeowners (1.6 million) that had at one time been in a COVID-19-related forbearance plan, no longer are

» Of that group, 3% have paid off their mortgage, 21% had their forbearance removed/expired and remain current on mortgage payments, while 4% had their plan removed/expire and are currently past due on their mortgage

» Of the remaining loans still on active forbearance plans, 2.6 million have had the term of their plan extended, while 1.5 million are still in their initial term

Removed/Expired -Performing1,223,000

21%

Removed/Expired -Delinquent

205,000 4%

Paid Off182,000

3%

Still in Forbearance -Original Term

1,531,000 27%

Still in Forbearance -Term Extended

2,588,000 45%

CURRENT STATUS OF COVID-19 RELATED FORBEARANCES(STATUS AS OF JULY 21 2020)

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

3/17/20

3/24/20

3/31/20

4/7/20

4/14/20

4/21/20

4/28/20

5/5/20

5/12/20

5/19/20

5/26/20

6/2/206/9/20

6/16/20

6/23/20

6/30/20

7/7/20

7/14/20

7/21/20

NUMBER OF FORBEARANCE PLANS OVER TIMEEver in COVID-19 Forbearance Active COVID-19 Forbearance

NUMBER OF FORBEARANCE PLANS OVER TIME CURRENT STATUS OF COVID-19 RELATED FORBEARANCES(STATUS AS OF JULY 21 2020)







MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 10

Here, we take a closer look at the impacts of record low interest rates in recent months including a breakdown of the number of refinance candidates that could benefit from today’s low interest rate environment. We also dig into soaring prepayment rates with market analysis by vintage. This information has been compiled from the company’s McDash loan-level mortgage performance database. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.

JUNE 2020 REFINANCE INCENTIVE & PREPAY ACTIVITY

20.9

M

19.5

M

17.8

M

15.6

M

12.9

M

11.3

M

9.8M

8.1M

6.8M

5.6M

4.7M

3.9M

3.0M

2.6M

2.4M

2.1M

1.8M

1.6M

1.5M

1.3M

1.0M

.9M

.8M

2.75

0%

2.87

5%

3.00

0%

3.12

5%

3.25

0%

3.37

5%

3.50

0%

3.62

5%

3.75

0%

3.87

5%

4.00

0%

4.12

5%

4.25

0%

4.37

5%

4.50

0%

4.62

5%

4.75

0%

4.87

5%

5.00

0%

5.12

5%

5.25

0%

5.37

5%

5.50

0%

NUMBER OF REFINANCE CANDIDATES UNDER DIFFERENT 30-YEAR FIXED RATE SCENARIOS

(BASED ON FIRST LIEN MARKET MAKE-UP AS OF JUNE 2020)

.0M

2.0M

4.0M

6.0M

8.0M

10.0M

12.0M

14.0M

16.0M

18.0M

20.0M

2.75%

3.00%

3.25%

3.50%

3.75%

4.00%

4.25%

4.50%

24.Jan 14.Mar 02.May 20.Jun 08.Aug 26.Sep 14.Nov 02.Jan 20.Feb 09.Apr 28.May 23.Jul

REFINANCE CANDIDATES BY WEEK VS. 30-YEAR FIXED RATESRefinance Candidates (Right Axis) 30-Year Fixed Rate Freddie PMMS (Left Axis)

REFINANCE CANDIDATES BY WEEK VS. 30-YEAR FIXED RATES NUMBER OF REFINANCE CANDIDATES UNDER DIFFERENT 30-YEAR FIXED RATE SCENARIOS

(BASED ON FIRST LIEN MARKET MAKE-UP AS OF JUNE 2020)

» After 30-year rates fell below 3% in mid-July for the first time on record, providing refinance incentive to a record 18.1 million homeowners, rates edged up slightly in the third week of July

» Despite the increase, some 15.6 million refinance candidates still meet broad based underwriting criteria and could also reduce their 30-year interest rate by at least 0.75% through refinance

» The average savings for those candidates is $289/mo., for an aggregate monthly savings of over $4.5 billion if all candidates were to refinance

» Removing underwriting criteria, 52% of mortgage holders have a current interest rate 0.75% or more above the going 30-year rate in the market

» In assessing the potential impact of sub-3% interest rates, we see that if rates fall to 2.875%, it would result in 19.5 million candidates — shattering July’s record — while rates of 2.75% would add another 7%, bringing the number of homeowners that could benefit from a refi to 20.9 million







MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 11

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

2004

-06

2005

-06

2006

-06

2007

-06

2008

-06

2009

-06

2010

-06

2011

-06

2012

-06

2013

-06

2014

-06

2015

-06

2016

-06

2017

-06

2018

-06

2019

-06

2020

-06

PREPAYMENT RATE (SMM) BY INVESTOR / PRODUCTGSE FHA/VA Portfolio Private Securities Total Market


» The largest monthly increase in June was seen among FHA/VA loans, which rose by 21%

» The largest increase since January as been seen among GSE loans, which are now up 136% from the year’s start

» Prepays among GSE and portfolio held mortgages both hit their highest levels since 2004, while GNMA prepays hit their highest level since 2009

Driven by falling 30-year rates, prepayment activity is now up 111% from January

PREPAYMENT RATE (SMM) BY INVESTOR / PRODUCT





MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 12

1.3%

1.2% 1.2%

1.3%

2.0% 2.

3%

2.3%

2.2%

2.3%

3.2%

3.2%

2.7%

3.8%

5.1%

3.2%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Vintage

PREPAYMENT SPEEDS (SMM) BY VINTAGEJanuary 2020 June 2020


» When analyzing by vintage, the prepayment rate for loans originated in June 2018 was 5.1%, the highest prepayment rate of any vintage in a single month since the Great Recession

» Each of the most recent 11 vintages have seen a 65% or more increase in prepayment activity over the past five months

» The largest percentage increase has been seen among 2019 vintage loans, which are up 214% over that span

Each of the past eight vintages have seen prepayment speeds more than double over the past five months

PREPAYMENT SPEEDS (SMM) BY VINTAGE





MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 13

-

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Jan-2

3

Jan-3

0

Feb-06

Feb-13

Feb-20

Feb-27

Mar-05

Mar-12

Mar-19

Mar-26

Apr-02

Apr-09

Apr-16

Apr-23

Apr-30

May-07

May-14

May-21

May-28

Jun-0

4

Jun-1

1

Jun-1

8

Jun-2

5Ju

l-02

Jul-0

9Ju

l-16

2.75%

3.00%

3.25%

3.50%

3.75%

4.00%

4.25%

REFINANCE RATE LOCKS VS. 30-YEAR INTEREST RATES(REFINANCE RATE LOCKS INDEXED TO 2020 PEAK)

Conv 30-Year Average Note Rate (Right Axis) Refinance Locks (Indexed 7-Day Average)

» Refinance rate lock activity has seen modest growth in July, while purchase lending activity has surged

» Refinance rate locks have picked up over the past three weeks with locks in the third week of July up more than 60% from the first week of the month

» That said, overall refinance lock activity through the first 3 weeks of July is only up 2% from the month prior and down 10% from the first three weeks of May

» After seeing purchase origination volumes fall by 33% from March to April, during the heart of the pandemic, and remain below March's levels in May, we've seen a noticeable rebound in purchase lending with surges in lock activity as 30-year rates fall

» Over the first three weeks of July, purchase lock activity is up 12% month-over-month and up 71% from March’s pre-pandemic level


REFINANCE RATE LOCKS VS. 30-YEAR INTEREST RATES(REFINANCE RATE LOCKS INDEXED TO 2020 PEAK)

2.75%

3.00%

3.25%

3.50%

3.75%

4.00%

4.25%

-

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Jan-0

9

Jan-1

6

Jan-2

3

Jan-3

0

Feb-06

Feb-13

Feb-20

Feb-27

Mar-05

Mar-12

Mar-19

Mar-26

Apr-02

Apr-09

Apr-16

Apr-23

Apr-30

May-07

May-14

May-21

May-28

Jun-0

4

Jun-1

1

Jun-1

8

Jun-2

5Ju

l-02

Jul-0

9Ju

l-16

PURCHASE ORIGINATION INTEREST RATE LOCKS(7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE INDEXED TO 2020 PEAK)

Purchase Locks (Indexed 7-Day Average) Conv 30-Year Average Note Rate (Right Axis)

PURCHASE ORIGINATION INTEREST RATE LOCKS(7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE INDEXED TO 2020 PEAK)






MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 14

34.4%

23.4%

19.8%

2.98%2.5%

4.0%

5.5%

7.0%

8.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1997-0

7

1998-0

7

1999-0

7

2000-0

7

2001-0

7

2002-0

7

2003-0

7

2004-0

7

2005-0

7

2006-0

7

2007-0

7

2008-0

7

2009-0

7

2010-0

7

2011-0

7

2012-0

7

2013-0

7

2014-0

7

2015-0

7

2016-0

7

2017-0

7

2018-0

7

2019-0

7

2020-0

7

Fred

die

30-Y

ear F

ixed

Rat

e

Paym

ent t

o In

com

e Ra

tio

NATIONAL PAYMENT TO INCOME RATIO*Payment to Income Ratio (left Axis) Freddie 30-Year Fixed Interest Rate (right axis)

*The National Payment to Income Ratio is the share of median income needed to make the monthly principal and interest paymenton the purchase of the median priced home using a 20% down 30-year fixed rate mortgage at the prevailing interest rate

*The National Payment to Income Ratio is the share of median income needed to make the monthly principal and interest paymenton the purchase of the median priced home using a 20% down 30-year fixed rate mortgage at the prevailing interest rate

» Purchasing the average priced home, for the average family, is now the most affordable it’s been since 2016

» As of mid-July, it required only 19.8% of median monthly income to make the monthly payment on the average priced home purchase (assuming 20% down and a 30-year mortgage) — that’s more than 5% below the 1995–2003 average

» The monthly payment on the average priced home purchase is $66 less per month than it was at the same time last year, despite average home values increasing more than $12,000

» Buying power is up 10% YoY, allowing the average home buyer to afford nearly $32,000 more home than they could at the same time last year, while keeping their monthly payment the same

Record low 30-year rates have had significant impacts on home affordability

NATIONAL PAYMENT TO INCOME RATIO*

JUNE 2020 AFFORDABILITY AND HOME PRICE TRENDSHere, we look at how record low mortgage interest rates and the COVID-19 pandemic have impacted home affordability. We also provide a geographic breakdown on affordability shifts, including markets that are having affordability levels not seen since before the Great Recession. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s McDash loan-level mortgage performance database. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.






MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 15

LAST TIME HOUSING WAS THIS AFFORDABLE – BY STATE

January2018

September2019

October2017

October2015

February2016

January2017

January2018 January

2018 December2017

December2016

January2018

January2015

April2015

November2016

December2012

January2017

Pre1995

December2015

February2013

Pre1995

December2012

November2016 Pre

1995

October2016

December2017

January2018

January2018

Pre1995

January2018

December2017

November2016

February2017

February2016

September2016

January2018January

2018

December2016

December2012

December2012

January2018

February2013November

2016

November2016

April2015

October2016

January2017

January2013

Pre1995

Pre1995

LAST TIME HOUSING WAS THIS AFFORDABLE – BY STATE

» Six states — Maryland, West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky, Iowa and Louisiana — are experiencing affordability levels not seen for more than 25 years

While falling interest rates have pushed housing affordability to multi-year highs across U.S., s ome areas are experiencing housing affordability levels not seen since before the Great Recession

JUNE 2020 AFFORDABILITY AND HOME PRICE TRENDS





MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 16

Size Rank Geography (CBSA) Most Affordable Since20 Baltimore, MD Before 20055 Houston, TX April 20153 Chicago, IL March 20161 New York-Newark, NY-NJ October 20166 Philadelphia, PA October 20167 Washington, DC October 20168 Miami, FL October 201611 San Francisco, CA October 201624 Portland, OR October 20162 Los Angeles, CA January 20174 Dallas, TX January 201712 Riverside, CA January 201717 San Diego, CA January 201719 St. Louis, MO January 201722 Pittsburgh, PA January 201715 Seattle, WA February 201721 Denver, CO February 201725 San Antonio, TX September 20179 Atlanta, GA January 201810 Boston, MA January 201814 Detroit, MI January 201816 Minneapolis, MN January 201818 Tampa, FL January 201823 Charlotte, NC January 201813 Phoenix, AZ February 2018

25 Largest Markets (CBSAs)

» Expanding the criteria to the 100 largest markets, Virginia Beach, Va.; Hartford, Conn.; Baton Rouge, La.; Jackson, Miss.; and Scranton, Pa. are also seeing the strongest affordability levels in a decade and a half

» Each of the top 25 largest markets is seeing the strongest affordability in over two years, with falling 30-year rates elevating buying power across the country

» Record job loss levels are still impacting the housing market and economy, but for prospective homebuyers, their buying power is trending up

» Only California is now less affordable than its long-term benchmark, after seeing nine states cross that threshold in late 2018

Among the 25 largest markets, Baltimore stands out, with affordability levels not seen in more than 15 years dating back before the Great Recession






MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 17

$200

$220

$240

$260

$280

$300

$320

$340

$360

1/1/20 2/1/20 3/1/20 4/1/20 5/1/20 6/1/20 7/1/20

Dol

lars

Per

Squ

are

Foot

NEW YORK METRO – DAILY SINGLE FAMILY MEDIAN NEW LIST AND SOLD PRICE PER SQAURE FOOT

List Price (per sq ft) Sold Price (per sq ft)


NEW YORK METRO – DAILY SINGLE FAMILY MEDIANNEW LIST AND SOLD PRICE PER SQAURE FOOT

» During the initial peak of the pandemic in mid-March and April, New York City found itself as the epicenter, negatively impacting the metro area’s real estate market

» Single-family list prices, which had previously averaged five percent higher than the corresponding sales prices, began to fall

» During the pandemic’s peak in New York City, median list prices ran even — and at times below — median sale prices in the metro area

» Aided by improved affordability, median list prices in the New York City metro area began to recover by the end of April, and stabilized to pre-pandemic levels by May

» Sales prices have correspondingly rebounded, rising to new calendar year highs by mid-July

Despite the pandemic’s continued impacts on global economies, the U.S. real estate market has shown resilience thus far and continues to perform well





MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 18

$90

$95

$100

$105

$110

$115

$120

Jan-2020 Feb-2020 Mar-2020 Apr-2020 May-2020 Jun-2020

Inde

x (J

anua

ry 2

020=

100)

MEDIAN SINGLE FAMILY PRICE PER LIVING AREA – BY CBSA

Dallas, TX

Seattle, WA

Las Vegas, NV

Charlotte, NC

Cleveland, OH

Boston, MA

Houston, TX

Portland, OR

Chicago, IL

Salt Lake City, UT

San Diego, CA

Atlanta, GA

Los Angeles, CA

New York, NY

Washington, DC


» To assess the pandemic's broader impacts, Collateral Analytics created a home price index (HPI) that analyzed the median sold prices of single-family homes across 22 markets, beginning in January 2020, and showing changes through June 1.

» Despite drops in April and May, home prices have since performed well and begun to improve in most analyzed markets.

» Each of the markets analyzed has now seen positive growth YTD in their median price per square foot

» The largest increases are seen in Dallas and Seattle, where the median price per square foot is up more than 13% YTD after pullbacks in May

» The shallowest increases are seen in Washington, D.C. where prices are up 1% YTD, and New York City at +1.8%

With interest rates falling further in July, daily home price data bears watching closely in coming months

MEDIAN SINGLE FAMILY PRICE PER LIVING AREA – BY CBSA





MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 19

Jun-20 Monthly Change

YTD Change

Yearly Change

Delinquencies 7.59% -2.25% 135.87% 103.55%Foreclosure 0.36% -4.21% -21.95% -27.08%

Foreclosure Starts 5,900 15.69% -86.21% -85.29%Seriously Delinquent

(90+) or in Foreclosure 3.89% 148.24% 210.18% 184.60%

New Originations (data as of May-20) 1147K 8.6% 51.8% 65.5%

Jun-20 May-20 Apr-20 Mar-20 Feb-20 Jan-20 Dec-19 Nov-19 Oct-19 Sep-19 Aug-19 Jul-19 Jun-19Delinquencies 7.59% 7.76% 6.45% 3.39% 3.28% 3.22% 3.40% 3.53% 3.39% 3.53% 3.45% 3.46% 3.73%

Foreclosure 0.36% 0.38% 0.40% 0.42% 0.45% 0.46% 0.46% 0.47% 0.48% 0.48% 0.48% 0.49% 0.50%Foreclosure Starts 5,900 5,100 7,400 27,600 32,300 42,800 39,500 33,500 43,900 39,400 36,200 39,200 40,100

Seriously Delinquent (90+) or in Foreclosure 3.89% 1.57% 1.28% 1.18% 1.22% 1.25% 1.27% 1.30% 1.31% 1.32% 1.33% 1.34% 1.37%

New Originations 1147K 1056K 922K 702K 652K 756K 739K 865K 805K 799K 758K 670K

3.73

%

3.46

%

3.45

%

3.53

%

3.39

%

3.53

%

3.40

%

3.22

%

3.28

%

3.39

% 6.45

%

7.76

%

7.59

%

Jun-1

9Ju

l-19

Aug-19

Sep-19

Oct-19

Nov-19

Dec-19

Jan-2

0

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

Jun-2

0

TOTAL DELINQUENCIES

670K

758K

799K

805K

865K

739K

756K

652K

702K 92

2K

1056

K

1147

K

Jun-1

9Ju

l-19

Aug-19

Sep-19

Oct-19

Nov-19

Dec-19

Jan-2

0

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

NEW ORIGINATIONS

JUNE 2020 DATA SUMMARY

JUNE 2020 APPENDIX





MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 20

Month TOTAL ACTIVE COUNT 30 DAYS 60 DAYS 90+ DAYS FC Total

Non-Current FC StartsAverage Days

Delinquent for 90+

Average Days Delinquent for

FC

Ratio of 90+ to FC

1/31/05 47,706,128 1,197,062 339,920 458,719 276,745 2,272,446 50,922 242 324 165.8%1/31/06 50,900,620 1,242,434 387,907 542,378 258,613 2,431,332 76,477 207 308 209.7%1/31/07 53,900,458 1,425,030 468,441 551,439 393,973 2,838,883 117,419 203 267 140.0%1/31/08 55,478,782 1,743,420 676,266 950,639 813,560 4,183,885 195,033 190 256 116.8%1/31/09 55,788,441 2,001,314 932,436 1,878,981 1,321,029 6,133,760 250,621 193 323 142.2%1/31/10 55,098,009 1,945,589 903,778 2,972,983 2,068,572 7,890,922 292,308 253 418 143.7%1/31/11 53,861,778 1,750,601 746,634 2,078,130 2,245,250 6,820,615 277,374 333 527 92.6%1/31/12 52,687,781 1,592,463 652,524 1,796,698 2,205,818 6,247,503 223,394 395 666 81.5%1/31/13 51,229,692 1,464,583 587,661 1,551,415 1,742,689 5,346,348 156,654 460 803 89.0%1/31/14 50,380,779 1,341,074 529,524 1,278,955 1,213,046 4,362,599 97,467 486 935 105.4%1/31/15 50,412,744 1,238,453 465,849 1,060,002 884,901 3,649,204 93,280 509 1,031 119.8%1/31/16 50,754,010 1,300,564 444,962 832,265 660,056 3,237,847 72,021 494 1,047 126.1%1/31/17 51,159,681 1,110,977 390,341 665,258 481,613 2,648,190 70,568 454 1,012 138.1%1/31/18 51,428,922 1,085,065 413,313 708,248 337,351 2,543,976 62,470 364 931 209.9%1/31/19 51,896,438 1,074,044 367,750 503,655 264,875 2,210,325 50,196 391 830 190.1%1/31/20 52,999,009 954,154 332,534 418,662 245,517 1,950,866 42,834 338 838 170.5%2/29/20 52,950,379 1,012,320 315,219 409,432 239,058 1,976,030 32,259 341 842 171.3%3/31/20 52,879,016 1,077,439 309,101 405,840 220,271 2,012,651 27,585 338 875 184.2%4/30/20 52,739,249 2,511,419 427,419 461,530 211,316 3,611,685 7,362 316 957 218.4%5/31/20 53,103,003 1,757,871 1,734,344 631,110 200,426 4,323,750 5,077 257 1,022 314.9%6/30/20 53,152,827 1,047,342 1,112,849 1,873,938 192,176 4,226,305 5,904 156 1,068 975.1%

LOAN COUNTS AND AVERAGE DAYS DELINQUENT

JUNE 2020 APPENDIX





MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 21

State Del % FC % NC % Year/Year Change in NC% State Del % FC % NC% Year/Year

Change in NC% State Del % FC % NC % Year/Year Change in NC%

National 7.6% 0.4% 8.0% 88.6% National 7.6% 0.4% 8.0% 88.6% National 7.6% 0.4% 8.0% 88.6%

MS 12.0% 0.4% 12.5% 15.6% OK* 7.6% 0.6% 8.3% 39.3% DC 6.1% 0.4% 6.4% 121.0%LA* 11.1% 0.6% 11.7% 45.1% SC* 7.9% 0.4% 8.3% 51.3% MO 6.2% 0.2% 6.4% 46.5%NY* 9.7% 1.2% 10.9% 103.0% ME* 6.9% 1.0% 7.9% 35.7% AZ 6.1% 0.1% 6.2% 113.7%NJ* 10.1% 0.5% 10.6% 125.6% DE* 7.3% 0.5% 7.9% 42.6% NH 5.9% 0.2% 6.1% 58.0%HI* 9.1% 1.2% 10.3% 164.1% AR 7.5% 0.4% 7.8% 25.9% KY* 5.6% 0.4% 6.0% 36.9%AK 10.0% 0.2% 10.3% 199.6% IN* 7.3% 0.6% 7.8% 28.9% WY 5.8% 0.2% 5.9% 78.6%FL* 9.6% 0.6% 10.2% 133.1% VT* 7.1% 0.7% 7.8% 66.5% WI* 5.6% 0.3% 5.9% 49.3%NV 9.7% 0.4% 10.1% 221.9% TN 7.4% 0.2% 7.6% 49.9% UT 5.5% 0.1% 5.6% 108.0%CT* 9.4% 0.7% 10.1% 91.4% NC 7.1% 0.2% 7.4% 59.2% MN 5.4% 0.1% 5.6% 102.3%GA 9.8% 0.2% 10.0% 80.7% NM* 6.7% 0.6% 7.3% 57.5% IA* 5.1% 0.4% 5.6% 33.2%TX 9.6% 0.2% 9.8% 91.1% KS* 6.9% 0.4% 7.3% 53.2% CO 5.4% 0.1% 5.5% 181.2%

MD* 9.2% 0.4% 9.7% 78.9% OH* 6.6% 0.5% 7.2% 42.5% ND* 5.0% 0.3% 5.3% 110.2%PA* 8.6% 0.5% 9.1% 60.5% VA 6.8% 0.2% 7.0% 86.9% OR 5.0% 0.2% 5.2% 146.9%AL 8.8% 0.2% 9.0% 25.9% MA 6.4% 0.3% 6.7% 64.1% SD* 4.8% 0.3% 5.1% 64.2%RI 8.0% 0.6% 8.6% 53.1% NE* 6.3% 0.2% 6.5% 54.7% MT 4.9% 0.2% 5.1% 86.3%WV 7.9% 0.4% 8.3% 20.8% MI 6.4% 0.1% 6.5% 58.7% WA 4.7% 0.2% 4.8% 128.1%IL* 7.7% 0.5% 8.3% 85.0% CA 6.4% 0.1% 6.5% 188.4% ID 4.3% 0.1% 4.4% 94.8%

*Indicates Judicial State

STATE-BY-STATE RANKINGS BY NON-CURRENT LOAN POPULATION

JUNE 2020 APPENDIX





MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 22

Mortgage Monitor Disclosures

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JUNE 2020 DISCLOSURE



http://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/BKI_MM-Disclosures.pdf

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MORTGAGE MONITOR

JUNE 2020 | 23

TOTAL ACTIVE COUNT: All active loans as of month-end including loans in any state of delinquency or foreclosure. Post-sale loans and loans in REO are excluded from the total active count.

DELINQUENCY STATUSES (30, 60, 90+, ETC):

All delinquency statuses are calculated using the MBA methodology based on the payment due date provided by the servicer. Loans in foreclosure are reported separately and are not included in the MBA days delinquent.

90-DAY DEFAULTS: Loans that were less than 90 days delinquent in the prior month and were 90 days delinquent, but not in foreclosure, in the current month.

FORECLOSURE INVENTORY: The servicer has referred the loan to an attorney for foreclosure. Loans remain in foreclosure inventory from referral to sale.

FORECLOSURE STARTS: Any active loan that was not in foreclosure in the prior month that moves into foreclosure inventory in the current month.

NON-CURRENT: Loans in any stage of delinquency or foreclosure.

FORECLOSURE SALE / NEW REO:

Any loan that was in foreclosure in the prior month that moves into post-sale status or is flagged as a foreclosure liquidation.

REO: The loan is in post-sale foreclosure status. Listing status is not a consideration, this includes all properties on and off the market.

DETERIORATION RATIO: The ratio of the percentage of loans deteriorating in delinquency status vs. those improving.

JUNE 2020 DEFINITIONS



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