Morphological Method

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BUSINESS FORECASTING

MORPHOLOGICAL

PRESENTED BY

KUMAR NILESH

AVANISH TIWARI

VIVEK YADAV

POOJA SENGAR

MOHITASH C NANGOTRA


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Morphological Analysis works through very

simple processes, using two common

principles of creativity: decomposition

and forced association The problem is broken

down into component variables and possible

values identified for each. The association

principle is then brought into play by bangingtogether multiple combinations of these

values.


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Morphological analysis is a method foridentifying and investigating the total set ofpossible relationships contained in any given,

multi-dimensional problem complex that canbe parameterized.

Morphological analysis is a proven ideationmethod that leads to "organized invention."The technique allows for two key elements:


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a systematic analysis of the current and future

structure of an industry area (or domain) as

well as key gaps in that structure.

a strong stimulus for the invention of new

alternatives that fill these gaps and meet any

imposed requirements.


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Assumption

The morphological analysis is actually a group ofmethods that share the same structure. This methodbreaks down a system, product or process into itsessential sub-concepts, each concept representing a

dimension in a multi-dimensional matrix. Thus, everyproduct is considered as a bundle of attributes. Newideas are found by searching the matrix for newcombination of attributes that do not yet exist. Itdoesnt provide any specific guidelines for combining

the parameters. It tends to provide a large number ofideas.


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Advantages

"It may help us to discover new relationships or

configurations, which may not be so evident, or

which we might have overlooked by other less

structured methods. It encourages the identification and investigation of

boundary conditions, i.e. the limits and extremes of

different contexts and factors.

It also has definite advantages for scientific

communication and notably for group work.


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It allows us to find possible solutions to complex

problems characterized by several parameters.

Richness of data it can provide a multitude of

combinations permutations not yet explored. Systematic analysis this technique allows for a

systematic analysis of future structure of an industry

and identification of key gaps.


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Drawback

"One apprehension that has been voiced againstmorphological analysis is that it is too structured and thatthis could inhibit free, creative thinking.

Morphological analysis may yield too many possibilities.

Human judgments are still needed to direct the outcome.There are no guidelines for making combinations.

Human error the development of morphological boxesrequires critical judgments. If the underlying thoughtprocesses are not insightful, the outcomes of this method will

be weak.


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WHAT ARE QUALITATIVE METHODS

These are methods which rely on

experts who try to quantify the level

of demand from the available

qualitative data.


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DIFFERENT QUALITATIVE METHODS

DELPHI METHOD

MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS SCENARIO METHODS

SALES FORCE COMPOSITE METHOD etc.


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Characteristics of these methods

It is used when little or no quantitative

information is available but sufficient

qualitative knowledge exists.

Subjective based on intuition.

Assumes that somebody knows the

answers and ask them.

Experience based.

Subjective : might result is bias.


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USEFUL FOR

Long range forecasting

e.g. where technological, political etc play a

significant role.

When data is limited or non existence

e.g. new product launch


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MORPOLOGICAL ANALYSIS


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MEANING OF THE TERM

The term morphology comes from classicalGreek (morph) and means the study of shape

or form.


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WHAT IS IT IN SIMPLE TERMS

IT IS A TOOL WHICH CAN HELP

CAN HELP GENERATE A VAST

NUMBER OF IDEAS


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FORMALY WE CAN SAY THAT

Morphological analysis is a non-quantified

modelling method for structuring and

analysing technological, organisational and

social problem complexes. It relies on therepresentation of a problem using a number

of parameters (or variables), which are

allowed to assume a number of conditions (orstates).


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FIELDS OF APPLICATION

The PROBLEM" in question can be

physical (e.g. an organism, an anatomy or an

ecology)

social (an organization or institution) or

mental (e.g. linguistic forms, concepts or

systems of ideas)


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BEST THING ABOUT IT

IT CAN BE USED IN LITERALY

EVERY PROBLEM WE FACE

AND FIND IT DIFFICULT TO

GET AN OPTIMAL SOLUTION


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WHERE IT CAME FROM

The first to use it was J.W. von Goethe(1749-1832),

It was introduced to denote the principle offormation and transformation of organic bodies

Swiss astronomer ERITZ ZWICKY in 1948 usedit in a more generalised form.

He used it in the field of ASTROPHYSICS andROCKET RESEARCH

From the late 1960s to the early 1990s, a limited formof MA was employed by a number of engineers,operational researchers and policy analysts.


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CONTEMPORARY USE

SWEDISH DEFENCE RESEARCH AGENCY IN

1995 USED IT FOR Force Requirement

ALONG WITH ADVANCED COMPUTER

SUPPORT ( CASPER - A SOFTWARE )

THIS STUDY EXTENTED THE USE OF THIS

METHODS FUNCTIONALITY AND AREAS OF

APPLICATON


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SINCE THEN

MORE THAN 100 PROJECTS HAVE BEENCARIED OUT USING COMPUTER AIDEDMORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

IT HAS BEEN USED IN STRUCTURING:- COMPLEX POLICY

PLANNING POLICY

SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT

ANALYSING ORGANISATIONAL

STRUCTURE etc.


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HOW TO USE IT PRACTICALLY

PROBLEMS AT HAND IS STUDIED

DIMENSIONS OF THE PROBLEMS ARELISTED

THEN WE GENERATE A LIST OF ATTRIBUTESUNDER EACH DIMENSIONS

THEN WE CONSTRUCT A

MULTIDIMENSIONAL MATRIX (morphologicalbox) WHOSE COMBINATIONS WILL CONTAINALL POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS


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COMBINATIONS OF ALL ATTRIBUTES

ACROSS THE DIMENSIONS ARE EXAMINED( EVEN IF THEY APPEAR UNUSUAL OR

IMPRACTICAL)

Evaluation of the outcome is done which isbased on feasibility and achievement of

desired goals

Then in-depth analysis of best possibilitiesconsidering available resources is done .


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MORPHOLOGICAL FIELD

In Morphological Field we put all the

conditions and there parameters in box in aorganised way


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CROSS CONSISTENCY MATRIX

In this we basically check the logical relationship

between different parameters


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CASE STUDY

DISASTER REDUCTION

STRATEGYDEVELOPMENT


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IN THIS CASE STUDY WE IDENTIFY AND

COMPARE RISK REDUCTION STRATEGY AND

PREPAREDNESS FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF

HAZARDS USING MORPHOLOGICAL

ANALYSIS


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FIRST THING WE DO IS THAT WE IDENTIFY

AND DEFINE MOST IMPORTANT PARAMETERS .

FOR OUR STUDY WE HAVE IDENTIFIED THE

FOLLOWINGS

HAZARDS

RISK REDUCTION STRATEGY

UNSAFE PHYSICAL CONDITIONS

ADEQUATE CAUTION MEASURES

ADEQUATE PREPAREDNESS MEASURES


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TAKING THESE PARAMETERS INTO

CONSIDERATION WE DEFINE VARIOUS

CONTIONS UNDER WHICH THESE

PARAMETERS CAN EXIST.

THESE CONDITIONS CAN BE WILD OR

ILLOGICAL . WE SIMPLY TAKE ALL THAT INTO

CONSIDERATION FOR THE TIME BEING

HAZARDS REDUCTION PHYSICAL CAUTION PREPAREDNESS


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HAZARDS REDUCTION

STRATEGY

PHYSICAL

CONDITIONS

CAUTION

MEASURES

PREPAREDNESS

MEASURES

EARTHQUAKE PREVENT

HAZARDITSELF

POPULATION

DENSITY

BUILDING STD.

FOR NEW

CONRTRUCTION

WARNING

SYSTEM

FLOODS REDUCE

SEVERITY OF

HAZARD

UNSAFE

LOCATION

RELEVENT

EDUCATION &

TRAINING

EVACUATION

SYSTEM

FIRE REDUCE

PHYSICAL

EXPOSURES

LACK

OF DISASTER

PLANNING

URBAN

RENOVATION

TROOPS

AVAILABILITY

TERRORISM REDUCE

CONSEQUENCES

RISK

TRANSFER


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y = These two conditions can/should co-

exist.

X = These two conditions cannot/should

not, co-exist.

EARTHQUAKE MORPHOLOGY


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EARTHQUAKE MORPHOLOGY

HAZARDS

RISK

REDUCTION

STRATEGY

UNSAFE

PHYSICAL

CONDITIONS

ADEQUATE

CAUTION

MEASURES

ADEQUATE

PREPAREDNESS

MEASURES

EARTHQUAKE PREVENT

HAZARD

ITSELF

POPULATION

DENSITY

BUILDING STD.

FOR NEW

CONRTRUCTION

WARNING

SYSTEM

FLOODS REDUCE

SEVERITY OF

HAZARD

UNSAFE

LOCATION

RELEVANT

EDUCATION &

TRAINING

EVACUATION

SYSTEM

FIRE REDUCE

PHYSICAL

EXPOSURES

LACK

OF DISASTER

PLANNING

URBAN

RENOVATION

TROOPS

AVAILABILITY

TERRORISM REDUCE

CONSEQUENCES

RISK

TRANSFER

POSSIBLE SOLUTION


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POSSIBLE SOLUTIONTOTAL NO. OF CONFIGURATIONS

1*2*3*3*3= 54

Earthquake/reduce consequences/population

density/building std. for new construction /evacuation system


density/building std. for new construction /warning systemEarthquake/reduce consequences/population

density/building std. for new construction /troops availability


density/ relevant education and training /troops availability


density/ relevant education and training /warning system.

FLOOD MORPHOLOGY


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FLOOD MORPHOLOGY

HAZARDS

RISK

REDUCTION

STRATEGY

UNSAFE

PHYSICAL

CONDITIONS

ADEQUATE

CAUTION

MEASURES

ADEQUATE

PREPAREDNESS

MEASURES

EARTHQUAKE PREVENT

HAZARD

ITSELF

POPULATION

DENSITY

BUILDING STD.

FOR NEW

CONRTRUCTION

WARNING

SYSTEM

FLOODS REDUCESEVERITY OF

HAZARD

UNSAFELOCATION

RELEVENTEDUCATION &

TRAINING

EVACUATIONSYSTEM

FIRE REDUCE

PHYSICAL

EXPOSURES

LACK

OF DISASTER

PLANNING

URBAN

RENOVATION

TROOPS

AVAILABILITY

TERRORISM REDUCE

CONSEQUENCES

RISK

TRANSFER

POSSIBLE SOLUTION


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POSSIBLE SOLUTION

TOTAL NO. OF CONFIGURATIONS

1*2*2*2*3= 24

Floods/reduce consequences/unsafe location/ relevanteducation and training /warning system.

Floods/reduce consequences/unsafe location/ relevant

education and training /evacuation system.

Floods/reduce consequences/unsafe location/ relevanteducation and training /troops availability.

Floods/risk transfer/unsafe location/ relevant educationand training /troops availability.

Floods/risk transfer/unsafe location/ relevant education

and training /troops warning system.

FIRE MORPHOLOGY


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FIRE MORPHOLOGYHAZARDS

RISK

REDUCTION

STRATEGY

UNSAFE

PHYSICAL

CONDITIONS

ADEQUATE

CAUTION

MEASURES

ADEQUATE

PREPAREDNESS

MEASURES

EARTHQUAKE PREVENTHAZARD

ITSELF

POPULATIONDENSITY

BUILDING STD.FOR NEW

CONRTRUCTION

WARNINGSYSTEM

FLOODS REDUCE

SEVERITY OF

HAZARD

UNSAFE

LOCATION

RELEVENT

EDUCATION &

TRAINING

EVACUATION

SYSTEM

FIRE REDUCE

PHYSICAL

EXPOSURES

LACK

OF DISASTER

PLANNING

URBAN

RENOVATION

TROOPS

AVAILABILITY

TERRORISM REDUCE

CONSEQUENCES

RISK

TRANSFER

POSSIBLE SOLUTION


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POSSIBLE SOLUTION

NO. OF CONFIGURATION POSSIBLE

= 1*3*2*2*1= 12

FIRE/PREVENT HAZARD ITSELF/UNSAFE LOCATION/ RELEVENT

EDUCATION AND TRAINING/EVACUATION SYSTEM

FIRE/PREVENT HAZARD ITSELF/UNSAFE LOCATION/ BUILDINGSTD. FOR NEW CONTRUCTION/EVACUATION SYSTEM

FIRE/PREVENT HAZARD ITSELF/LACK OF DISASTER

PLANNING/ BUILDING STD. FOR NEW

CONTRUCTION/EVACUATION SYSTEM

FIRE/PREVENT HAZARD ITSELF/LACK OF DISASTER

PLANNING/RELEVENT EDUCATION AND

TRAINING/EVACUATION SYSTEM


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TERRORISM MORPHOLOGY

HAZARDS

RISK

REDUCTION

STRATEGY

UNSAFE

PHYSICAL

CONDITIONS

ADEQUATE

CAUTION

MEASURES

ADEQUATE

PREPAREDNESS

MEASURES

EARTHQUAKE PREVENT

HAZARD

ITSELF

POPULATION

DENSITY

BUILDING STD.

FOR NEW

CONRTRUCTION

WARNING

SYSTEM

FLOODS REDUCESEVERITY OF

HAZARD

UNSAFELOCATION

RELEVENTEDUCATION &

TRAINING

EVACUATIONSYSTEM

FIRE REDUCE

PHYSICALEXPOSURES

LACK

OF DISASTERPLANNING

URBAN

RENOVATION

TROOPS

AVAILABILITY

TERRORISM REDUCE

CONSEQUENCES

RISK


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POSSIBLE CONFIGURATION

1*1*1*1*1 = 1

TERRORISM/PREVENT HAZARD

ITSELF/UNSAFE LOCATION/ RELEVENT

EDUCATION AND TRAINING/TROOPSAVAILABILITY


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FINAL RESULT

TOTAL NO. OF CONFIGURATIONS = 540

TOTAL No. OF RELEVENT CONFIGURATIONS

=54 + 24 + 12 + 1 = 91

TOTAL No. OF IRRELEVENT CONFIGURATIONS

= 540 - 91 = 449


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POSSIBLE USE OF THIS STUDY

DEVELOPMENT OF NEW RESIDENCIAL AREAS

DEVELOPMENT OF NEW INDUSTRIAL AREAS

IMPLEMENTATION OF GOVT. POLICIES IN A

PARTICULAR GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS

ETC.


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CASE STUDY

1. Objective:- Improving existing models of the

car.

2. Analyze cars and list some of their

parameters.

Improving elements

Optional equipments

Internal processes

Temporary properties


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CONTD

3. Generate the variations for each parameter.

Which Improving elements can be found?

Which optional equipment can be offered to

customers?

Which are the different kinds of internal

processes in a car?

Which temporary properties can make a car

special in its early phases of life?

4 h ll h ibl l i


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4. Research all the possible solutions

to the problem.

5 T diff bi i


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5. Try different combinations

(randomly):


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Morphological Analysis

Random Combination: odour,

airconditioning, operator controlled ,new car

smell

Result: Fragrance Control System for cars

Advantages: With a touch of button, drivers

can choose jasmine ,mint or perfume scents

all blowing through air-conditioning system.


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Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths

Richness of data

Systematic Analysis

Weaknesses

An overabundance of possibilities Human error

M th d l i l A h(t b t


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Methodological Approach(to combat

overabundance of possibilities)

Identification of economic, technical, andstrategic criteria to assess and select the best

solutions.

Identification of crucial components and theirclassification by criteria of weighted differences;and

Introduction of constraints of exclusion or

preference. This approach has been integrated into a micro-

software package (MOPPHOL).


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The Future Group

The Futures Group (TFG) has developed a

computer analysis program that facilitates the

process and organizes the output in priority.

TFG used a general permutation program,customized for food care, to analyze food storage

and food preparation technologies in priority.

Two permutation programs were run: a foodstorage program,and a food preparation

program.


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Contd..

These programs permuted all possible

combinations of elements from the three

subsystems to form a large set of potential

products.

For each subsystem element, two numbers

were entered to describe how well each

element met the two criteria:1. Breakthrough potential; and

2. Relationship to client company.

Morphological Method

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