More Bandwidth, Please - IEEE Communications Society
Transcript of More Bandwidth, Please - IEEE Communications Society
More Bandwidth, Please
IEEE ComSoc – Atlanta Chapter
October 24, 2017
Outline
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• The Internet - The Early Days
• Exponentially Growing Bandwidth Demand
• Cable Operators move from Video to Data
• Past Evolution of Cable Architecture
• Possible Future Cable Architectures
Connecting to the Net – The Early Years
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1989 – 100,000 Hosts on Internet
Nielsen’s Internet Connection Speeds
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300 bps
9.6 Kbps
128 Kbps
12 Mbps
300 Mbps
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
Meg
a Bi
ts P
er S
econ
d
Nielsen's Law vs. Max Offered Internet Connection SpeedsLogarithmic Scale, Mbps
The Era of Dial-Up Modems
The Era of Cable Modems
The Era of Wideband
Cable Modems andIP Video
The past 25 years show a constant bandwidth increase
of ~1.5x every year
Nielsen’s Curve
Disruptive Event in 2013:“1 Gbps Service”
6 years ahead of projection
Nielsen’s Law:
Broadband speeds
increase 50% per year.
Jakub Nielsen 1998
Mike’s Household Example of the Bandwidth Growth
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$60.00
TELCO
¥ CPI based upon Buerau of Labor Statisics Data
Keeping The Cost Down while Meeting the Bandwidth Demand CAGR is Critical to Keeping Customers Happy and Success in the Business
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
1997 2016
Spee
d (k
bps)
Cooper's Internet Speed
$25.00
$90 $90
$35.00
$-
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
1997 actual 1997 after adjusting forInflation to 2016
2016 actual
Mon
thly
Ser
vice
Cos
t
Service Cost Comparison
ISP
TELCO
51.5% CAGRConsistent
with Nielsen
2016 & 1997 Cost are the Same
after Adjusting for Inflation ¥
Possible Changes Looming?Bandwidth Growth in Recent Years
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Downstream
Upstream
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
95%
Pea
k
North America Peak Residential Demand
0
5
10
15
20
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Dow
n /
Up
Ratio
Data Use Asymmetry – North American Peak
Categories of Services today (with peak hour %)
Streaming Media 62%Downloads 10%Web browsing 6%Encrypted 6%Peer-to-Peer 2%Messaging and Collaboration 2%Gaming 2%All others 9%
Traffic Consumption
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Bottom 70% of Users
15% of Users
Top 15% of Users
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% o
f Tot
al D
ata
Cons
umpt
ion
Downstream
Bottom 70% of Users
15% of Users
Top 15% of Users
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% o
f Tot
al D
ata
Cons
umpt
ion
Upstream
The Traditional Cable TV Architecture
System MTC /STC locationsMaster MTC Backbone
transportIndividual node serving areas
Customer premise
The Access Network
History of the Access Network
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Bandwidth basics
With D3.0, there is head room for growth in downstream up to 32 QAMs, but we are constrained for growth in upstream
The total downstream and upstream bandwidth is shared across all subscribers in a Service Group.
2 4 9 52 58 2 32
D3
.0
Other Data + Voice Reserved Available Digital Video Control D3.0
5 MHz 1 GHz42 MHz
DownstreamUp
6.4 MHz30 Mbps
6.0 MHz42.88 Mbps
1D
(*) Example assumes All-Digital in the market
Downstream Bandwidth
Total Bandwidth offered by
DOCSIS Spectrum
Total bandwidth is shared across the
Service GroupAvg. bandwidth
per Sub.Total SG Bandwidth
Size of SG=
Upstream Bandwidth
Single Quadrature Amplitude Modulated (QAM) upstream channel is 6.4 MHz wide
with a raw capacity of 30 Mbps
Single Quadrature Amplitude Modulated (QAM) downstream channel is 6.0 MHz wide with a raw capacity of 38.8 Mbps
Band
wid
th p
er S
ubQ
AM A
ssig
nmen
t
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Growth driver
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CAGR 49%
CAGR 42%
CAGR 34%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Downstream Peak Utilization (Mbps)
49% Projection Moderate Growth Low Growth
3 Years 5 Years
51 Mbps
31 Mbps
18 Mbps
7 Mbps
7 Mbps
6 Mbps
3 Mbps
3 Mbps
3 Mbps
• Simplified TE formula– C >= (Nsub*Tavg)+(K*Tmax_max)– C is the required bandwidth for a service group– Nsub is the total subs in the service group– Tavg is the average bandwidth consumed – K is QoE constant 0 <= K <= infinity– Tmax_max is the highest speed offered
Year Nsub Tavg K Tmax_max C
2016 235 1 Mbps 1.2 150 Mbps 415 Mbps
2021 128 7 Mbps 1.2 1 Gbps 2 Gbps
2026 64 51 Mbps 1.2 5 Gbps 9 Gbps
• The typical head-end with will have issues related to footprint scale as we deploy fiber-deep architectures
• Many ways to address challenges
Bandwidth management
We continue to leverage carrier additions & nodes splits to manage bandwidth & will require additional levers to meet future demand
We manage bandwidth per service group by carefully managing the capacity and reach on the network.Influencing Factors Technology EnablersBandwidth per Sub
Total Available bandwidth
Number of Subs. Sharing BW
Capacity
Subscribers in SG
1
2
Tier Mix
Speed Tiers
Concurrency
Homes Passed
Tier Penetration
Carrier Additions
IP Video
DOCSIS 3.13.1
32D
Spectrum Expansion, Mid/High Split
Node Splits
Fiber Deep (N+1, N+0)
+
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Technology Timing Description Bandwidth(DS / US Mbps) Dependencies / Prerequisites
D2.0, 1D 1 - 40 / 30 -
D3.0, 32D 2 Channel Bonding 1,200 / 150 Free additional downstream spectrum
D3.1, Single OFDM 3 OFDM 2,500 / 300 CCAP infrastructure, D3.1 CPE migration
MPEG2 -> MPEG4 4 Enhanced encoding 3,300 / 300 Install new encoders and CPE
Full IP 5 IP based delivery 8,000 / 1,000Migration to All IP video, Video CPE replacement,
Mid split to support additional downstream capacity
Mid/High Split, 1.2-1.8 GHz,
Full Duplex 3.16 Symmetrical
speeds 10,000 / 10,000 Fiber Deep Passive Coax (N+0), Distributed Access Architecture, Upgrade all actives, upgrade CPEs
Fiber to the Tap?Extend Spectrum? 7 Fiber-like speeds 30,000 / 30,000
Allows complete spectrum per home, potential for 100 Gbps, Uses current drop, supports legacy
equipment
3.1
32D
IP
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DOCSIS Evolution
DOCSIS Full Duplex Technology
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• Supports Multi-Gigabit Symmetric Services• Non-disruptive Technology for Customers
– Compatible with Legacy in-home Devices– Doesn’t Require burying fiber to the home– Doesn’t Require rewiring in the home
• Simple Migration of Existing HFC Network to Fiber deeper with Node 0
96 MHz
192 MHz
288 MHz
384 MHz
576 MHz
or
or
or
108 300 492 684 108 300 492 684
-Impulse Response of Echo channel
Coupler
XMIT
RCV
Future of the Access network
Current network architecture averages N+5, driving fiber deeper improves Network Capacity and Performance
To metro distribution
CMTS Fiber NodeTap
Amplifier
Tap
Tap
Tap
Customer
Households Passed (HHP) – Number of homes that fall in the serving area of a single fiber nodeService Group – Number of customers sharing DS and US bandwidth
Households Passed
+
Fiber
Coax
Fiber
Coax
Coax
Not a customer
Serv
ice
Gro
up
Fibe
r Dee
per TapN
+5 HHP 512
TapN+1 HHP 128
TapN+0 HHP 64
Fiber Fiber
Fiber
FiberFiber
Fiber
Fiber terminates at the node
Node plus 5 Amplifiers
Node plus an Amplifier
Node with no Amplifier(passive network)
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