Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month...

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Monthly Economic Update: March 2016

Transcript of Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month...

Page 1: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

Monthly Economic Update: March 2016

Page 2: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

U.S. Equity Returns

INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 YearRussell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25Russell 1000 TR USD 6.97 1.17 0.50 11.52 11.35Russell 1000 Growth TR USD 6.74 0.74 2.52 13.61 12.38S&P 500 TR USD 6.78 1.35 1.78 11.82 11.58S&P 500 Low Quality TR USD 10.11 -0.03 -5.90 10.99 10.05S&P 500 High Quality TR USD 6.14 6.30 7.06 14.49 14.34

Russell 2000 Value TR USD 8.29 1.70 -7.72 5.73 6.67Russell 2000 TR USD 7.98 -1.52 -9.76 6.84 7.20Russell 2000 Growth TR USD 7.66 -4.68 -11.84 7.91 7.70

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Source: Morningstar DirectReturns as of 03/31/2016

Domestic equity markets recovered enough through March to pull year to date numbers into positive territory for large companies and small value companies. Small core and growth companies remained in negative territory on a year to date basis. Despite weaker year to date performance, large growth remains ahead of core and large value on a one year basis, owing to stronger relative performancethrough 2015.

Following a weak year and underperformance for much of the last five years, small value companies provided relatively strong returns.

Page 3: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

International Equity Returns

INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 YearMSCI EAFE Value NR USD 6.60 -3.97 -12.82 0.59 0.82MSCI EAFE NR USD 6.51 -3.01 -8.27 2.23 2.29MSCI EAFE Growth NR USD 6.42 -2.07 -3.70 3.80 3.70MSCI AC Europe NR USD 6.59 -2.01 -8.29 2.04 1.43MSCI Japan NR USD 4.73 -6.52 -7.06 3.84 4.03MSCI United Kingdom NR USD 4.84 -2.34 -8.85 0.19 2.21

MSCI Portugal NR USD 14.40 3.24 -2.92 -10.53 -12.15MSCI Ireland NR USD 4.57 -4.15 7.78 12.71 12.21MSCI Italy NR USD 7.80 -11.66 -15.41 2.95 -5.65MSCI Greece NR USD 23.90 -12.22 -51.96 -35.37 -36.40MSCI Spain NR USD 7.98 -4.09 -18.63 2.37 -4.23

MSCI EM NR USD 13.23 5.71 -12.03 -4.50 -4.13MSCI Brazil NR USD 30.52 28.48 -11.75 -18.16 -16.15MSCI Russia NR USD 14.68 15.75 1.69 -12.30 -12.48MSCI China NR USD 11.90 -4.80 -18.84 0.94 -0.90MSCI India NR USD 13.08 -2.50 -13.15 3.82 -1.88

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Returns as of 03/31/2016 Source: Morningstar Direct

International stocks similarly bounced from a bottom near mid-February, although the strength has not been as pronounced as it has been in the U.S. and year to date numbers remain largely negative. European financials remain beaten up as the business model ofbanks generally falls apart when reserves have to be deposited at negative interest rates. Emerging Markets were a bright spot globally, delivering some of the best returns in risk assets for the month and quarter. EM has a long way to go to make up for the last five years.

Page 4: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

Fixed Income Returns

INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 YearBarclays US Aggregate 1-3 Yr TR USD 0.36 0.97 1.05 0.97 1.19Barclays US Agg Bond TR USD 0.92 3.03 1.96 2.50 3.78Barclays Global Aggregate TR USD 2.70 5.90 4.57 0.87 1.81Citi WGBI USD 2.66 7.09 5.92 0.49 1.16Barclays US Corporate High Yield TR USD 4.44 3.35 -3.69 1.84 4.93Barclays US High Yield Loans TR USD 3.14 1.79 -1.33 1.86 3.27

Barclays Municipal 1-3 Yr TR USD -0.18 0.48 0.96 0.88 1.15Barclays Municipal Interm 5-10 Yr TR -0.07 1.55 3.73 3.18 4.80Barclays Municipal TR USD 0.32 1.67 3.98 3.63 5.59Barclays HY Muni TR USD 1.05 2.74 3.45 3.33 7.81

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Returns as of 03/31/2016 Source: Morningstar Direct

Interest rates followed the pattern of risk assets, declining through early February while investors sought the safety of treasuries. The 10-year Treasury bottomed at 1.66% on February 11, the same date the S&P 500 bottomed. Since then, the rate closed in on 2% before falling back to 1.77% at quarter end. With rates broadly declining through the quarter, the Barclays Aggregate provided positive returns for the month and quarter.

Spread sectors provided positive returns as the environment turned from risk off to risk on and spreads narrowed (see next slide). The lowest credit qualities generally saw the biggest gains as spreads narrowed more on a relative basis versus higher credit qualities. As a result, high yield corporates posted the best performance within fixed income.

Municipals were slightly mixed through March, but were broadly positive for the quarter.

Page 5: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

Corporate Spreads vs. U.S. Treasuries – Monthly Change

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Source: FactSet as of 3/31/2016

Average Life1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years

FinancialsAAA -- -- -- -- --AA -10.250 -15.800 -20.370 -5.060 -28.330A -17.030 -20.400 -23.110 -19.180 -17.800BBB -16.170 -18.900 -25.060 -20.540 -18.960BB 3.760 -11.330 -33.950 -59.950 -59.950B -346.180 186.790 -121.200 -91.250 -91.250IndustrialsAAA -5.520 -24.600 -8.380 6.090 -9.150AA -12.710 -13.920 -23.410 -32.240 -11.300A -11.470 -21.630 -26.330 -23.920 -13.580BBB -16.190 -56.130 -34.290 -37.140 -54.270BB 6.480 -53.440 4.780 -49.920 -39.680B -98.710 -45.830 -130.450 -54.820 -54.820UtilitiesAAA -- -- -- -- --AA -1.360 -8.450 -22.100 -19.930 -19.930A -7.870 -6.410 -8.470 -8.640 -17.960BBB 1.520 -16.760 -32.910 0.500 0.500BB -20.760 -58.380 -46.370 -38.870 -38.870B -1099.730 -1099.730 -7.420 -135.590 -135.590

Note: -- indicates spread not available

Chart reflects change in corporate spreads vs. U.S. Treasuries from end of February to end of March.

Credit spreads were mixed through the month, with some credits seeing wider spreads and some seeing narrower spreads.

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Real Asset Returns

INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 YearDJ Gbl Select REIT TR USD 9.61 6.02 4.59 9.17 10.70DJ US Select REIT TR USD 10.43 5.12 4.88 11.09 11.99Bloomberg Commodity TR USD 3.82 0.42 -19.56 -16.87 -14.15Alerian MLP TR USD 8.32 -4.17 -31.83 -10.31 -0.55

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Returns as of 02/29/2016 Source: Morningstar Direct

Real assets provided positive returns through March. Real estate provided some of the strongest returns amongst real asset categories, followed closely by MLPs. Unfortunately, prior losses were to much to overcome for MLPs, and the sector closed in negative territory for the quarter.

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GDP Growth

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The final estimate for fourth quarter GDP was revised up once again, this time from 1% to 1.4%. With that final revision, it appears the U.S. grew at 2.4% through 2015. Current projections suggest the next several years will continue along the mid-2% growth rate. While that falls below the average pace of expansion in the U.S., it remains notably ahead of other developed countries including Japan, the U.K., and the Eurozone.

Through Q4 2015, based on final estimate of Q4 GDP at 1.4%

Source: FactSet

Page 8: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

Contribution to GDP Growth

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The upward revision to GDP in the final fourth quarter estimate was primarily related to an upward revision in the contribution from consumer spending, as well as a reduction to the detraction provided by net exports. For growth to accelerate above the mid-2% level, the contribution from consumer spending will have to increase, and business spending will once again have to pick up. Much of the business spending from 2009 through 2014 was associated with the fracking renaissance which is unlikely to contribute the same amount in the future. Source: FactSet

Through Q4 2015, based on final estimate of Q4 GDP at 1.4%

Page 9: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices

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The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing index surprised to the upside and climbed back into expansionary territory at 51.8. The non-manufacturing index also surprised to the upside, strengthening to 54.5. In combination, the two measures suggest growth was relatively strong through the latter parts of the first quarter.

Through March 2015

Source: FactSet

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'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

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4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

5.00

Monthly Change in Non-Farm Employment U.S. National Unemployment Rate

Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate

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The March jobs report built on the February rebound by adding 215,000 jobs. was much stronger than consensus expectations, coming in at 242,000 new jobs. Revisions to January and February were minor. The unemployment rate climbed slightly to 5.0% as more discouraged workers returned to the labor force. This continues to be consistent with a tightening labor market, and a historical outcome of such a mix has been labor inflation. Said another way, jobs pay more because there are fewer employees available to fill the jobs as the unemployment rate declines. While there have been some green shoots of labor inflation, it has not yet becomewidespread. The Fed is watching labor inflation closely as they evaluate the pace of interest rate normalization.

Through March 2015

Source: FactSet

Page 11: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

New Unemployment Filings

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New unemployment filings continues to oscillate between 250,000 and 300,000 for the last several months. Recent reports are not significant as none have represented an outlier and all have been consistent with an improving labor market. There was a slight uptick in late March following historically low measures in early March, but at this point there is no indication of a breakout to the upside and deterioration in labor markets. Overall, the continuing low level of claims is consistent with tightening labor.

Source: FactSet

Through March 25, 2016

Page 12: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) Report

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The latest available government JOLTS report (which tracks the number of jobs available in the economy) shows the number of available positions remains near its all-time high. The level of positions available should be a positive leading indicator for continued hiring.

Through February 2016

Source: FactSet

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Capacity Utilization

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Capacity utilization is an indirect leading indicator of hiring. In theory, there is a limit to how much a company can produce with existing equipment and employees. Once that limit is reached, companies have to hire additional employees or purchase equipment. In the expansion of 2003-2007, hiring was strongest when capacity utilization reached the lower 80% range. Capacity utilization has remained frustratingly low.

Through February 2016

Source: FactSet

Page 14: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

Industrial Production

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Industrial Production has been declining recently, with the annual change falling into negative territory. The January reading surprised to the upside and changed the direction of the trend, but industrial production moved back to a decline in February. With the Manufacturing ISM index reversing to positive territory in March, it is likely that industrial production also rebounded.

Source: FactSet

Through February 2016

Page 15: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

Conference Board Survey of Consumer Confidence

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Consumer confidence has been range-bound for much of the last year. With equity markets bouncing in mid-February, labor markets continuing to improve and the cheap price of energy continuing, consumer confidence is likely to rebound at some point in the next few months.

Source: FactSet through February 2016

Through March 2016

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Small Business Confidence Indices

Small business optimism following consumer confidence to be lower in February. As mentioned previously, business spending will need to pick up in order for growth to accelerate above the moderate mid-2% level. Small business confidence will have to pick up in order for business owners to feel comfortable committing capital to growth.

Small Business Confidence through February 2016

Source: FactSet

Page 17: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

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Existing and New Home Sales

Despite volatility in capital markets, U.S. housing is doing just fine. Strong housing can continue to put a floor under consumer confidence.

Source: FactSet

Data through February 2016

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S&P 500 vs. S&P 500 EPS

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The S&P was volatile through the first quarter, declining from New Year’s through February 11th. By quarter end, year to date losses had reversed to slight positive gains for the S&P. The volatility in the level of the S&P has been directly correlated to a decline in earnings. That decline has been primarily related to energy losses, though most sectors have seen weaker growth than earlier estimates.

Source: FactSet

Trailing EPS is blend of actual 2015 earnings and estimated earnings for Q4 2015 with 499 of 504 companies having reported.

As of April 5, 2016

Page 19: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

S&P 500 vs. S&P 500 EPS

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Earnings estimates have continued to decline for 2016, with the current consensus showing weak growth of 2.2%, with losses once again concentrated in the energy sector. Notably, there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel as earnings growth is expected to accelerate through the latter half of 2016 and into 2017. Current estimates project a recovery of 183% in the earnings of energy companies. Of course, that likely has a rosier commodity outlook at its base, something which may not come to pass.

Source: FactSet

Trailing EPS is blend of actual 2015 earnings and estimated earnings for Q4 2015 with 499 of 504 companies having reported.

As of April 5, 2016

Page 20: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '151

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4/4/20161.78

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield

10-Year Treasury Yield

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Source: FactSet

The 10-year Treasury rate bottomed (along with risk assets and crude oil) on February 11th, climbing back to approximately 1.99% before reversing lower. For the quarter, the 10-year Treasury rate declined from 2.3% to 1.77%.

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Fed Funds Rate

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The federal funds target rate was stuck in a range of 0-0.25% from the end of 2009 through the end of 2016, an unprecedented period of easy money policy. At the December 2015 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed finally made the first tightening moveby increasing the federal funds rates from a range of 0-0.25%, to a range of 0.25-0.50%. Following this lift-off, capital markets globally have been volatile. While the Fed doesn’t specifically look at capital markets volatility, it is a consideration if that volatility increases uncertainty and manifests as slower hiring or more deflationary pressures. At their March meeting, the Fed statement changed guidance to reflect less aggressive normalization. Where prior guidance suggested the potential for 4 raises through 2016, most recent guidance suggests 2 raises.

Data through March 2016 FOMC policy meeting

Source: FactSet

Page 22: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

Oil Supply and Price

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Equity markets have been highly correlated to the price of oil. It should not be a surprise then that the price of oil hit its recent low on February 11, as did the S&P 500 and the 10-year treasury rate. The price has subsequently recovered to nearly $40 for brent crude (international crude). U.S. supply has continued to contract, reducing the global oversupply. The lack of capital investment in energy and high rates of depletion should see the U.S. supply contraction accelerating. A significant caveat is the uncertain efficiency of frackers firing up their drillbits – if the price of oil rises marginally, how quickly can frackers respond and being to pump incremental supply?

Oil Production through March 25, 2016WTI and Brent Price as of April 1, 2016

Source: FactSet

Page 23: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

Global Risks

Economic• Fed Policy Error – The Fed finally tightened for the first time since 2006 at their December 2015 meeting. At the

March meeting, the statement indicated even more gradual rate increases than previously projected. On a standalone basis, the U.S. economy is arguably beyond the point where rate increases are warranted. The labor market has improved and continues to strengthen, and inflation ex-energy and food has started to slowly increase above 2%. However, in a nod to a world economy which has become much more globally interdependent, the Fed has somehow become the de-facto global central bank with policy decisions seemingly stretching beyond their historical dual mandate (employment and price stability in the U.S.) to incorporate the impact on foreign economies. The longer they maintain low interest rates, the more likely that pricing anomalies will develop which could be difficult to unwind.

• Negative Interest Rates Policy Error – Pull out your college economics textbooks and flip to the chapter on negative interest rates. Can’t find it? What previously was an economic impossibility has become today’s experimental monetary policy. From an academic perspective, interest rates were supposed to have zero as a finite lower bound, and the lowest interest rate globally was supposed to reflect the highest credit rating. Today, much of the developed world have negative policy rates intended to spur investment. In theory, the incentive created by the decision to pay for security versus to lend at a profit should work. In practice, it has never been tried, and importantly, unwinding negative interest rate policy has never had to be completed. Unintended consequences are uncertain, which raises the risk that such a regime may eventually be considered a policy error.

• Brexit – In June, the Britain will vote to determine if it will stay a member of the European Union. While various politicians argue for and against, such a move would create short term uncertainty in markets. The current probability of a vote supporting withdrawal is limited, but could change in the build up to the June vote.

• China – For the moment, investors seem to have taken some focus off China as the country has not fallen off a cliff. Consensus forecast continues to call for GDP growth of 6.5% in 2016. However, as the leading contributor to global growth, while the focus is temporarily off China it could quickly return and there likely will be multiple rounds of shocks associated with China.

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Global Risks

Geopolitical – In general, the same geopolitical issues have dominated for the last few months. • Oil Pressures – The price of oil has recovered some since the February 11 low, but remains lower

than a year ago. This has clearly impacted earnings through energy sector losses as energy earnings fell 61% from 2014. Through early 2015, most analysts and strategists predicted a recovery in the price of oil to between $60 and $70/barrel, but estimates have declined as low prices (and an oversupply) have persisted. The good news continues to be lower energy costs which should continue to boost the U.S. consumer. The bad news is that there likely will continue to be fallout in the energy sector as levered companies and those with weak balance sheets are pushed to bankruptcy. If the Saudis intended to harm U.S. frackers, they seem to be succeeding, but that battle is not without other casualties as Russia, Venezuala and OPEC members who are dependent on oil revenues struggle through this low commodity price cycle.

• U.S. Election Year – The GOP field has narrowed and is down to three candidates with Donald Trump maintaining his lead. With a loss in Wisconsin, the odds have increased that the Republican candidate will be determined via a contested convention as none of the three candidates may have the necessary delegate count to secure the nomination prior to the convention. On the Democratic side, Clinton remains in the lead, but Sanders has surprised many with some recent wins. Beyond business policies, the election will have significant ramifications for the character of the Supreme Court following the death of Justice Scalia and considering the age of some members of the SCOTUS (and resulting probability that the next president may have an opportunity to make multiple appointments).

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Page 25: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

Disclosures

Domestic equities: The value of the fund’s domestic and foreign investment will vary from day-to-day in response to many factors. Stock values fluctuate in response to the activities of individual companies, and general market and economic conditions. The prices of small and medium sized company stocks are generally more volatile than large company stocks. They often involve higher risks because smaller companies may lack the management expertise, financial resources, product diversification and competitive strengths to endure adverse economic conditions. Investing in foreign securities presents certain risks that may not be present in domestic securities. For example, investments in foreign and emerging markets present special risks, including currency fluctuation, the potential for diplomatic and potential instability, regulatory and liquidity risks, foreign taxation and differences in auditing and other financial standards. Securities in emerging markets are volatile and can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments.Fixed income securities are subject to availability and market fluctuation. These securities may be worth less than the original cost upon redemption. Certain high-yield/high-risk bonds carry particular market risks and may experience greater volatility in market value than investment-grade corporate bonds. Government bonds and Treasury bill are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. Interest from certain municipal bonds may be subject to state and/or local taxes and in some instances, the alternative minimum tax. The fund’s yield, share price, and total return change daily and are based on changes in interest rates, market conditions, other economic and political news, and on the quality and maturity of its investments. In general, bond prices rise when interest rates fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities. You may have a gain or loss when you sell your sharesHigh yield bonds, also known as junk bonds, are subject to greater risk of loss of principal and interest, including default risk, than higher-rated bonds. Investors should not place undue reliance on yield as a factor to be considered in selecting a high yield investment. These securities are rated below investment grade. Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) is a security that sells like a stock on the major exchanges and invests in real estate directly, either through properties or mortgages. REITs receive special tax considerations and typically offer investors high yields, as well as a highly liquid method of investing in real estate. Individuals can invest in REITs either by purchasing their shares directly on an open exchange or by investing in a mutual fund that specializes in public real estate.P/E (Price-to-Earnings Ratio) is a valuation ratio of a company’s current share price compare to its per-share earnings. It is also known as the “price multiple” or “earnings multiple.”Beta measures the risk potential of a stock or an investment portfolio expressed as a ratio of the stock's or portfolio's volatility to the volatility of the market as a whole. Standard deviation is an indicator of the portfolio’s total return volatility. The larger the portfolio’s standard deviation, the greater the portfolio’s volatility.Spread sectors include all non-Treasury fixed income investments. These investments typically have an interest rate that is different from the prevailing rate on Treasury securities. The difference in interest rates is known as the spread. Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of bond prices to interest rate changes. Investments are subject to market risks including the potential loss of principal invested.An investment cannot be made directly into an index .This report is not an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned.

The views and opinions presented in this update are those of Jaco Jordaan and not of HD Vest Financial Services® or its subsidiaries.

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Page 26: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

Disclosures (cont.) and Index Definitions

Asset allocation and diversification do not assure or guarantee better performance and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. Your individual allocation may be different than the HDVAS sample strategic model due to your unique individual circumstances. ETF Performance information sourced directly from Vanguard and iShares sponsors.Fund and Index Performance sourced from Morningstar - © 2015 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar not its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Returns represent past performance, are not a guarantee of future performance. Morningstar Performance Data - © 2015 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results

Russell Investment Group is a Washington, USA, corporation which operates through subsidiaries worldwide, including Russell Investments, and is a subsidiary of the Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company.The Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of the large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 Index companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values.The Russell 1000 Index measures the performance of the large-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. It is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index and includes approximately 1000 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 1000 represents approximately 92% of the U.S. market.The Russell 1000 Growth Index measures the performance of the large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 Index companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher expected growth values.The Russell 2000 Value Index measures the performance of small-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Value Index measures the performance of small-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 2000 Index companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.The Russell 2000 Growth Index measures the performance of the small-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 2000 Index companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.Neither MSCI nor any other party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the MSCI data makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such data (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such data. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the data have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. No further distribution or dissemination of the MSCI data is permitted without MSCI’s express written consent.

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Page 27: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

Index Definitions (cont.)

Neither MSCI nor any other party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the MSCI data recommends, endorses, approves or otherwise expresses any opinion regarding any issuer, securities, financial products or instruments or trading strategies and none of the data is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. The MSCI EAFE Index is an unmanaged market capitalization-weighted index of equity securities of companies domiciled in various countries. The Index is designed to represent the performance of developed stock markets outside the United States and Canada and excludes certain market segments unavailable to U.S. based investors. USD indicates performance calculated assuming foreign holdings values are converted from currency of domicile to US Dollar. LCL indicates performance calculated assuming foreign holdings values are not converted to US Dollar. The MSCI EAFE Value Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that monitors the performance of value stocks from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East.The MSCI EAFE Growth Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that monitors the performance of growth stocks from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East.The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. USD indicates performance calculated assuming foreign holdings values are converted from currency of domicile to US Dollar. LCL indicates performance calculated assuming foreign holdings values are not converted to US Dollar. The MSCI Japan measures the performance of Japanese equities. The MSCI All Country Europe measures the performance of equities domiciled in developed and emerging European countries. Barclay’s Capital U.S. Treasury Index includes public obligations of the U.S. Treasury with a remaining maturity of one year or more.The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond index measures the performance of investment grade bonds in the U.S. fixed income universe. It includes U.S Treasury issues, agency issues, corporate bond issues and mortgage-backed issues. It is unmanaged, includes reinvestment of dividends, does not reflect the impact of transaction, manager or performance fees and is unavailable for investment. The Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index measures the performance of investment grade fixed rate debt globally. The major components are the U.S. Aggregate, the Pan-European Aggregate, and the Asian-Pacific Aggregate. Additionally, the index contains various other investment grade fixed rate instruments not already included in the sub-components. The Barclays U.S. 1-3 Year Aggregate is a subset of the Barclays U.S. Aggregate index, representing securities with 1 to 3 years remaining until maturity. The Barclays U.S. Credit Index comprises the U.S. Corporate Index and a non-corporate component that includes foreign agencies, sovereigns, supranationals and local authorities.The Barclays Treasury Bond Index is a capitalization weighted index measuring the performance of U.S. Treasury bonds. The Barclays U.S. High Yield Loan index measures the performance of loans rated below investment grade in the U.S.The Barclays Municipal index measures the performance of tax exempt bonds in the U.S.The Barclays Municipal Intermediate 5-10 Year index measures the performance of investment grade municipal securities with 5 to 10 years remaining until maturity. The Barclays High Yield Municipal index measures the performance of below investment grade municipal securities with at least 1 year remaining until maturity. The Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index tracks the performance of domestic non-investment grade corporate bonds.

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Page 28: Monthly Economic Update: March 2016 · Update: March 2016. U.S. Equity Returns INDEX March 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Russell 1000 Value TR USD 7.20 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 Russell

Index Definitions (cont.)

The Citi World Government Bond Index (WGBI) measures the performance of 23 government bonds markets including Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the U.S. The Bloomberg Commodity index is comprised of future contracts on physical commodities which trade here in the U.S. and certain foreign markets. It measures the performance of investment in a broad basket of commodity futures contracts. The index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities. No related group of commodities (e.g., energy, precious metals, livestock and grains) may constitute more than 33% of the index as of the annual re-weightings of the components. No single commodity may constitute less than 2% of the index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price weighted index of 30 U.S blue-chip companies. The DJIA covers all industries with the exception of transportation and utilities. The Dow Jones Select REIT index represents equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) and REIT-like securities traded in the U.S. The Dow Jones Global Select REIT index represents equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) and REIT like securities traded globally. The FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index is designed to track the performance of listed real estate companies and real estate investment trusts (REITs) worldwide. The Standard and Poor’s 500 is a capitalization weighted index of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. It covers approximately 75% of the total capitalization of U.S. equities.The NASDAQ Index is a market capitalization weighted index of common equities listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.The NASDAQ 100 Index is composed of the 100 largest and most actively traded securities listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange, excluding those securities in the financial sector. The Case Shiller Composite 20 City Home Price Index measures price changes in residential sales within the 20 largest metropolitan areas in the United States.National Association of Realtors Home Affordability Index measures whether a family earning the median income as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau could qualify for a mortgage on a property at the median price and at the prevailing interest rate, assuming 20% down payment.

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