Monthly Economic News and Views at Lagos Business School ... · Monthly Economic News and Views at...

Monthly Economic News and Views

at

Lagos Business School

Executive Breakfast Meeting

May 5, 2010 Presented by B.J. Rewane

Financial Derivatives Company Limited

Outline

•! !"#$%&'#()$*+(,-'#.*$*/(0#1&%"-(2344('-5(61."-5(

•! !"#$&.(785'91(

•! 0&"-":$&(!1;<";:'-&1(

–! =#">'#(0&"-":$&(?$@A#$@A9*(

–! B":1*%&(0&"-":$&(?$@A#$@A9*(

•! 6C*$-1**(,&%D$9.()1D$1E(

•! F9"&+(G';+19(

•! H1'5$-@(0&"-":$&(I-5$&'9";*(

•! JC9#""+(<";(G'.(

2(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

The King is dead, Long live the King

•! K';L'L5C'(8'**1*("-(E$9A('(#1@'&.("<(51&1-&.('-5($-91@;$9.(

•! M;1'%-@('-("88";9C-$9.(<";(<C;9A1;(8"E1;(&"-*"#$5'%"-("<(8"E1;(>.(=""5#C&+(

•! I9('#*"(51#$-1'91*(9A1(*C&&1**$"-(*9;C@@#1($-9"(9A1((

–! NA1(;1:'$-51;("<(9A1(91;:($O1O(,8;$#(2344(

–! NA1(>'P#1(<";(9A1(8;1*$51-&.($-(2344(

•! =""5#C&+(E'*(A"#5$-@('##('&1*('*(8"**$>#1(+$-@('-5(+$-@:'+1;($-(9A1(;'&1(<";(2344(

•! Q"E(A1(A'*(9"(*A';1(8"E1;(E$9A('(-1E(RO!O(EA"(&"C#5(&":8#1:1-9(";(C-51;:$-1(A$*('C9A";$9.(

S(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

The King is dead, Long live the King

•! NA1(-1E(RO(!O($*(#$+1#.(9"(>1('(Q";9A1;-T(UC#'-$V(GC*#$:(

•! W$##(>1(8"*$%"-$-@('*('(8;1*$51-%'#(&'-5$5'91((

•! =""5#C&+($*(:"*9(#$+1#.(9"(*AC-(9A1(91:89'%"-(9"(;C-(

-1X9(.1';((

•! I-(9A$*(*&1-';$"T(A1(E$##(>1('>#1(9"(51#$D1;("-(A$*(S(8"$-9(8;"@;'::1(

–! Q$@1;(B1#9'(*9'>$#$9.(

–! 0#1&9";'#(;1<";:('-5(M;15$>#1(1#1&%"-*(

–! )1*9";$-@(*'-$9.(9"('(&A'"%&(8"E1;(*C88#.(*$9C'%"-(Y(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

The Calculus of Power

•! ,*(=""5#C&+('P1:89*(9"($-&;1'*1(A$*(@;$8T(*":1(

#1D1;*(';1(8;"D$-@(1#C*$D1(

•! ,(#1'51;*('C9A";$9.('-5(*C;D$D'#($-(Q$@1;$'($*('(<C-&%"-("<(9A1('@@;1@'91(*&";1(

•! NA1(1ZC'%"-("<(&"-*"#$5'%"-('-5(;191-%"-("<(8"E1;(*A"E*(

[(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

The Calculus of Power

\(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Consolidation to Politicking

(Risks Escalate)

](!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Struggle for Power Intensifies

!""#$%&'()"*+,-+*(./0123#1*,4(

^! 5"0610(718%,9(!":10*"0(";(<+91$2+(2,+,1((

^! <1*1=,1#(;0"6(,-1(3681+&-61*,(";(,-1(!":10*"0((

^! >3&1(/0123#1*,((,"(/0123#1*,(?+0@(+#%+((

^! <1&+61(A&B*C(/0123#1*,(3*(51D0%+09(EFGF((

^! H+2(*1:10(D11*(+,(,-1(,"8(";(+*(1$1&B"*(B&'1,(

!1*10+$(ID0+-36(<+D+*C3#+(.0,#4(

^! 50"6(J3C10(K,+,1L(3*(M3##$1(<1$,(

^!M3$3,+09(0%$10(;0"6(GNOPQGNNR(

^! A**%$$1#(,-1(GNNR(1$1&B"*((

^! /3"*110(";(1&"*"63&(01;"06(+*#(2,0%&,%0+$(+#S%2,61*,(

^! I*&01#3D$9(T1+$,-9(+*#(&-+0326+B&U(6"2,(8"$3B&+$$9(3*V%1*B+$(J3C103+*(

^! 712810+,1(,"(01-+D3$3,+,1(-32(D+W101#(36+C1(+*#(018%,+B"*(+X10(+**%$61*,(

NIGERIAN KEY PLAYERS

_(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'


!1*10+$(Y$%21C%*(YD+2+*S"(.0,#4(

^! Q"E(9A1(%$B6+,1('3*C6+'10(

^! 50"6(YC%*(2,+,1(3*(,-1(K"%,-T12,(

^!M3$3,+09(0%$10(;0"6(GNZZ(,"(GNZN(

^! 716"&0+B&(/0123#1*,(;0"6(GNNN(,"(EFFZ(

^! H1(32(,-1(&-+306+*(D"+0#(";(,0%2,112(;"0(/7/(

^! U'$#15('P1:89(9"(*1;D1('(9A$;5(91;:T(5':'@15((A$*(;18C9'%"-($;;18';'>#.(

AB'%(AD%D+'+0(./0123#1*B+$(A2830+*,4(

^!50"6(A#+6+T+(2,+,1(3*(J"0,-Q[+2,(

^!\+2(>3&1Q/0123#1*,(,"(YD+2+*S"(D1,T11*(GNNNQEFFZ(

^!<0"'1(0+*'2(T3,-(YD+2+*S"(":10(,-1(,-30#(,106(2+C+(

^!]1,%0*1#(,"(,-1(/7/(01&1*,$9(

^!K,0"*C(&"663,61*,(,"(01;"06(

^!K%^101#(6+S"0(8"$3B&+$(21,(D+&'2(

^!<1&"63*C(8"$3B&+$$9(3001$1:+*,(3*(01&1*,(B612(

^!<1$31:1#(,"(-+:1(1_-+%2,1#(-32(T+0(&-12,(


`(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'


I2+(?%C%#+(.!":10*"0(";(<+%&-3(2,+,14(

^!<"0*(3*(M+3#%C%03L(J"0,-Q\12,(

^!̀ %001*,(!":10*"0(";(<+%&-3(2,+,1(

^!5"0610(63*32,10(";(,0+*28"0,(+*#(+:3+B"*(

^!U";:1;(G'-'@$-@(B$;1&9";("<(9E"(>'-+*(

^!F"-L$-LH'E(9"(K';L'L5C'(

^!FE$9&A15(8"#$%&'#(8';%1*(<;":(!B!(9"(,Q!!(V(>'&+('@'$-(

^!61#$1D15(9"(>1(;C9A#1**#.(':>$%"C*T(8;'@:'%&(('-5(1a&$1-9(

!1*10+$(A$39%(!%2+%(.0,#4(.JKA4(

^! <"0*(3*(a+6;+0+(2,+,1(3*(J"0,-Q[+2,(

^! ,b1;(.1';*($-(9A1(5';+(A'*(>1&":1(A$@A#.(D$*$>#1(;1&1-9#.(

^! H+2(D11*(-1+#(";(:+03"%2((3*,1$$3C1*&1(+C1*&312(;"0(R(#1&+#12(

^!\3#1(3*V%1*&1(3*(D",-(&3:3$3+*(+*#(63$3,+09(&30&$12(

^! A(&$"21(;031*#(+*#(+$$9(,"(I<<(


43(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'


^!7+%C-,10(";(H32(]"9+$(H3C-*122L(b+,1(`-31;(501#103&'(AD391(AC+6+(

^!A*(A0&-3,1&,(

^!5302,(;16+$1([_1&%B:1(7301&,"0(+,(K-1$$(J3C103+(

^!5"0610(M3*32,10(;"0(c0+*28"0,+B"*U(M3*12(+*#(K,11$(71:1$"861*,(

^![_81&,1#(,"(;+&1(1^1&B:1*122(&-+$$1*C12(

731d+*3(A$$32"*QM+#%1'1(

!"#"$%&'()*(+&%'),&-.(

^!A($+T910(;0"6(e+#%*+(2,+,1(

^!5"0610(718%,9(M+*+C3*C(7301&,"0(";(JbJ!(

^!A362(+,(&+$63*C(,1*23"*(T3,-(IY`2(":10(,-1(/I<(+*#(",-10("3$Q01$+,1#(322%12(

M+$$+*(K-1-%(b+#+*(

/')-0(!12(33+4(

^!A(,1&-*"&0+,(T3,-(6"01(,-+*(RP(91+02(1_81031*&1((

^!A(2,0"*C(&0%2+#10(;0"(,-1(81,0"$1%6(01;"062(

^!K11*(,"(8$+9(+(&0%&3+$(0"$1(3*(,-1(*1_,("3$($3&1*23*C(0"%*#2(

[66+*%1$([CD"C+-(

50&6"7,(89:"$&'(%)(%;&(

+'&$"9&#%()#(+&%'),&-.(!7<&'$(

NIGERIAN KEY PLAYERS: The oil Troika

44(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

42(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Theory Vs. Reality c-1"09(>2f(]1+$3,9(3*(J3C103+*(/"$3B&2(

c-1"09g(716"&0+&9(]1+$3,9g([,-*"&0+&9(

Gf! `"*2B,%B"*(

Rf! ]%$1(";(b+T(

Pf! /+0B12(

Gf! b+&'2(8"8%$+0($1C3B6+&9(

(((((((`"261B&(&-+*C12(32(T"0'Q3*Q80"C0122(

(((((((K81&,01(";(+(63$3,+09(&"%8(-+%*,(#16"&0+B&(

80"&122(

Ef! h*#10Q012"%0&1#(S%#3&3+09(

(((((((`"00%8B"*(

((((((((K-+03+(

Rf! M1+*3*C$122(+22"&3+B"*2(

((((((([$1&B"*(03CC3*C(1*,10803212(

!! +,-'7,(1&.)6'76=(>(?0&#(@7,,)%2(?#&(.7#2(?#&(:)%&(

!! 5%7@","%=(>(A)#"#B2(C&9&'7,(4;7'76%&'2(D7'B7"#"#B(@=(/)9*7%;&'$(4S(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Election 2011: Proxy War Between

Generals and Governors

•! !;1*$51-%'#(1#1&%"-*(9"(A"#5($-(c4(2344(

•! !;"&1**(-"9(9A1("C9&":1($*(&;$%&'#(

–! H"E1;(9"#1;'-&1(<";(;$@@$-@(>"9A(5":1*%&('-5(

$-91;-'%"-'#(

–! =;1'91;(9;'-*8';1-&.('-5(@"D1;-'-&1($-(8C>#$&(*8'&1(

•! I-(233Sd]("C9&":1('-5(-"9(8;"&1**(E'*(&;$%&'#(

•! !B!(&"-D1-%"-('(:'e";(:$#1*9"-1(

–! F9'91(@"D1;-";*(A'D1(S3f("<(9A1(*C81;(51#1@'91*(

•! Y()1%;15(=1-1;'#*($-D"#D15($-(;'&1(

4Y(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'



•! I-&C:>1-9(8"E1;(E$##(8#'.('(;"#1(g(:"-1.('-5(

$-*%9C%"-(

–! h"-$-@(;C#1(E$##(8"*1('(<";:$5'>#1("88"*$%"-(9"(

$-&C:>1-9(8"E1;((

•! G'e";(I**C1*/(

–! =1"8"#$%&'#(h"-1(

–! )1#$@$"-(

–! N;'&+()1&";5(

–! M";;C8%"-(

–!W1*91;-(81;&18%"-(

–! )1@$:1(;1#'915(&";8";'91*(

4[(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

4\(

ELECTORAL BATTLE GROUNDS—Goodluck- Babangida- Atiku-Buhari- Yuguda

Goodluck Babangida Atiku Buhari Yuguda

Northwest ?? ?? ??

North Central ?? ??

Northeast ?? ?? ??

Middle Belt ?? ??

Southwest ?? ?? ?? ??

South-South ?? ?? ?? ??

Southeast ?? ?? ?? ??



•!(UC;9A1;('-'#.*$*($*(-11515(>1<";1($-<1;1-&1*(&'-(>1(5;'E-($-(9A1(D';$"C*(1#1&9";'#(>'P#1(@;"C-5*(

!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Risk Factors For Investors in 2011 [>[Jc( IM/A`c(

2344(0#1&%"-*/(!;"&1**(:";1($:8";9'-9(

9A'-(JC9&":1((

•!=1-1;'##.(C-*9'>#1('-5(C-8;15$&9'>#1(>C*$-1**(1-D$;"-:1-9(•!F%i1(;1<";:(8"#$&.(8;"&1**1*(

•!,>*%-1-&1(<;":("$#(&"-9;'&9(C-%#('b1;(9A1(1#1&%"-(

•!F81&9;1("<(:$#$9';.(&"C8((:'.(>1&":1(

:";1(;1'#(

09A-$&d;1#$@$"C*(&"-i$&9((

•!Q";9A((j?$@A(#1D1#k(•!G$55#1(61#9(j?$@A(#1D1#k(

•!H'@"*(j#"E(#1D1#k(

G15$C:(5$;1&9($:8'&9(

I-*C;@1-&1($-(9A1(Q$@1;(B1#9'( G'e";(5$;1&9($:8'&9(

•!H"**("<(#$<1(•!B1&;1'*15("$#(8;"5C&%"-((•!l$5-'88$-@("<(1X8'9;$'91*(

M";;C8%"-((

•!6;$>1*(•!F9'91(#""%-@(

I-&;1'*15(9;'-*'&%"-(&"*9(

M;1'915('(91-*1('9:"*8A1;1(<";(*"&$'#('-5(*1&9';$'-(D$"#1-&1(

4](!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Outline

•! !"#$%&'#()$*+(,-'#.*$*/(0#1&%"-(2344('-5(61."-5(

•! !"#$&.(785'91(

•! 0&"-":$&(!1;<";:'-&1(

–! =#">'#(0&"-":$&(?$@A#$@A9*(

–! B":1*%&(0&"-":$&(?$@A#$@A9*(

•! 6C*$-1**(,&%D$9.()1D$1E(

•! F9"&+(G';+19('-5(M":81%9";(,-'#.*$*(

•! H1'5$-@(0&"-":$&(I-5$&'9";*(

•! JC9#""+(<";(G'.(

4_(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Policy Issues

•! 6'-+$-@(–! ,GM(

–! 6'-+$-@(;1*9;C&9C;$-@(

•! !19;"#1C:(–! !I6(–! H"&'#(M"-91-9(–! Q$@1;(B1#9'('-5(,:-1*9.(

–! MA$-1*1(I-&C;*$"-(–! F'#1("<(J$#(6#"&+*(

•! N1#1&":*(–! QC:>1;(!";9'>$#$9.(

–! FIG(;1@$*9;'%"-(

–! !;$&$-@(jM'88$-@("<(=FG(&'##(9';$mk(

–! ,88"$-9:1-9("<(9A1(A1'5("<(9A1(QMM(4`(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

•! 6'-+$-@(;1<";:(<'&1*(8C*A>'&+(<;":(D';$"C*($-91;1*9(@;"C8*T($-&#C5$-@(8"#$%&'#(@;"C8*(

•! JKA(4'1$5)#2-'/#'26)'7$"&8*)'/7'*)7/*5'

''''''''''''''4'.$&&-'"2'$'26*)$2'2/'#$,/#$&'-)%8*"29'

•! Jb`(4':$*#-'/7'-2*";)'$%,/#'2/'<*/2)-2'26)'"5<$%2'/7'

26)'*)7/*5'

•! )1-'$**'-&1(@;"C8('-5(FA';1A"#51;*('**"&$'%"-((( ((((4'.*)3"2'.*8#%6'''

''''''''''''''''4''=$&8)')*/-"/#''

•! F9'>$#$9.(;1ZC$;15('9(9A$*(%:1(

•! M"-*1-*C*(>19E11-(*9'+1A"#51;*('-5('#$@-:1-9("<($-91;1*9*(

Policy Issues – Banking Reform

23(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

MA)Y](IKKh[K(

•! N':$-@($-i'%"-(

•! G'-'@$-@(9A1(C->C-5#$-@("<(C-$D1;*'#(>'-+$-@(

•! M"C-91;&.&#$&'#(;1:15.(9"(&;15$9(&;C-&A(

•! M":8#1:1-%-@(";(&"-9;'5$&%-@(n*&'#(8"#$&.(

•! G'-'@$-@(1X91;-'#(;1*1;D1*(

•! 0-*C;$-@('(*9;"-@(Q'$;'("-(9A1(>'&+("<((#"E($-91;1*9(;'91*(

•! G'-'@$-@(9A1(*'#1("<(9A1(;1*&C15(>'-+*(

Policy Issues – Banking Reform

24(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

The Unbundling Of Universal Banking

•! NA1(M6Q(A'*('--"C-&15('(8#'--15(9;'-*$%"-(>'&+(9"(

9A1(1;'("<(*1@;1@'915(>'-+$-@(

•! NA1(8;"8"*15(C->C-5#$-@("<(C-$D1;*'#(>'-+$-@(;'$*1*(

*1D1;'#($**C1*((

–! I*(9A$*('(<";:("<($51"#"@$&'#(>'&+*#$5$-@(";('(8;"@;1**$D1(

:"D1o(

–! I*(9A1($-91@;'915(>'-+$-@(:"51#(;1*8"-*$>#1(<";(9A1(

&C;;1-9(&;$*$*o(

–! ,;1(;$*+*(>1P1;(:'-'@15(EA1-(*1@;1@'915(";(

'@@;1@'915o(

22(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

–! ?"E(#$'>#1(E1;1(";(';1(9A1(&C;;1-9(;1@C#'9";*(9"(&A';@1*(

"<(&"-9;$>C9";.(-1@#$@1-&1o(

–! B"(E1(-115(9"(;'5$&'##.(&A'-@1(9A1(&C;;1-9(;1@C#'9";.(

<;':1E";+(9"(:$-$:$p1(;$*+*o(

–! B"1*(Q$@1;$'(-115(;1@C#'9";.(&"-D1;@1-&1(9"($51-%<.(

1';#.(E';-$-@(*$@-'#*('-5($-91;D1-1(1X815$%"C*#.o(

The Unbundling Of Universal Banking

2S(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Factors Driving the Change

•! =#">'#(9;1-5*($-(9A1(8"#$&.('-5(;1@C#'9";.(&"::C-$9.(

•! NA1(A$@A(8;$&1("<($-91;D1-%"-(EA1-(9A1;1(';1(

8;"<"C-5(*.*91:$&(;$*+*(

•! NA1(&"-9'@$"-(1m1&9("<(:1#9(5"E-*('-5(9A1(

'P1-5'-9(:";'#(A'p';5(

•! NA1('*&1-*$"-(9"(8"E1;("<(:";1(#$>1;'##.(:$-515(

51:"&;'9*(9"(9A1(WA$91(?"C*1O(

2Y(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

2[(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Factors Driving the Change

•! ,(*C>9#1('&&189'-&1(>.(9A1(8;"8"-1-9*("<(n-'-&$'#(

<;115":(9A'9("81-(:';+19*(5"(-"9(-1&1**';$#.((*1#<(

;1@C#'91(1m1&%D1#.(

•! F11(,#'-(=;11-*8'-*(>6)'?@)'/7'>8*A8&)#%)0'

?3+)#28*)-'"#'$'B)C':/*&3(

•! NA1(*$:C#9'-1"C*(&;.*9'##$p'%"-("<(;$*+*($-(5$m1;1-9(

:';+19*(@'D1($9(1#1D'915('P1-%"-(

2\(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Reponse to Driving Forces

•! B":1*%&'%"-("<('&%D$%1*('*('@'$-*9(8;$";($-91;-'%"-'#$p'%"-(

•! ,(A'#9(9"(9A1($-91@;'%"-("<(5$m1;1-9(n-'-&$'#(>C*$-1**(

•! =;1'91;(5$D1;*$n&'%"-("<('&%D$%1*(

•! G";1(-$&A1(:';+19('&%D$%1*(

•! ,5"8%-@("<(;'5$&'##.(&A'-@15('-5(-1E(&";8";'91(*9;'91@$1*(

•! G$-$:$p'%"-("<(;$*+('-5(&"-9'@$"-(

•! NA1(ZC1*%"-(9A1;1<";1($*(–! N"(EA'9(1X91-9(5"1*(";(5$5(C-$D1;*'#(>'-+$-@($-&;1'*1(;$*+o(

2](!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Reponses to Driving Forces

•! WA'9(*.*91:(";(n-'-&$'#(';;'-@1:1-9($*(*C$9'>#1(<";(

Q$@1;$'('9(9A$*(*9'@1($-($9*(1&"-":$&(51D1#"8:1-9o(

•! WA'9(*$@-'#(5"1*('(;1D1;*'#("<(8"#$&.(*1-5($-('(

&"C-9;.(EA1;1($-D1*9";*(';1(*+18%&'#('>"C9(8"#$&.(

:'+$-@(*$-&1;$9.o(

•! I*(7O(6O('(&"-*9;'$-9(9"(n-'-&$'#($-91;:15$'%"-(";(

1&"-":$&(@;"E9Ao(

2_(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

The New Model

•! ,##"E*(<";(#$&1-*$-@("<(*81&$'#$p15($-*%9C%"-*(9"(

81;<";:(5$m1;1-9(<C-&%"-*(

•! 0-&"C;'@1*(9A1($-&";8";'%"-("<(6'-+(?"#5$-@(

M":8'-$1*(

•! )1@C#'9";(*11+$-@(9"(8;1D1-9(:155#$-@(>.(6?Mq*($-(

9A1('m'$;*("<(9A1(>'-+$-@(*C>*$5$';$1*(

•! W$##(#$&1-*1(1X$*%-@(*C>*$5$';$1*("<(9A1(>'-+*(

•! I:8"*1*(9A1(&"51("<(&";8";'91(@"D1;-'-&1(*1D1;1#.((

•! )1*9;C&9C;$-@(9A1(8"E1;*("<(*A';1A"#51;*('-5(

5$;1&9";*(

2`(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

The New Model

•! F":1(<1'9C;1*("<(9A1(;1#1'*15(M6Q(@C$51#$-1(';1/(

–! Q433(>$##$"-T(Q2[(>$##$"-T(Q4[(6$##$"-(:$-$L:C:(&'8$9'#(

;1ZC$;1:1-9(<";($-91;-'%"-'#T(-'%"-'#('-5(;1@$"-'#(

>'-+*(;1*81&%D1#.((

–! 7-$<";:(&'8$9'#('51ZC'&.(;1ZC$;1:1-9('-5(;1@C#'9";.(

#1-5$-@(#$:$9(<";($-91;-'%"-'#T(-'%"-'#('-5(;1@$"-'#(

>'-+*((

–!G$-$:C:(ZC'#$<.$-@(&'8$9'#(9"(;$*+(E1$@A915('**19*(;'%"(

"<(43f((

S3(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

The New Model

–! Q"9(:";1(9A'-(23f("<(FA';1(?"#51;*(UC-5(F$-@#1(">#$@";(

#$:$9((

–! )1@$"-'#(>'-+*(&'-("-#.("81;'91($-('(:$-$L:C:("<([('-5(

'(:'X$:C:("<(43(&"-%@C"C*(*9'91*((

–! 7-#$+1($-91;-'%"-'#('-5(-'%"-'#(>'-+*T(;1@$"-'#(>'-+*(

&'--"9('&9('*(*1P#1:1-9(>'-+*((

S4(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Strategic Implications

•! 0X81&915(9"(:$-$:$p1($-*$51;(#1-5$-@('-5(;1#'915(

8';9.(9;'-*'&%"-*(

•! 0#$:$-'91(8"**$>#1(&"-i$&9*("<($-91;1*9(

•! ,##"E(<";(9;'-*8';1-&.('-5('(A$@A1;(#1D1#("<(

&";8";'91(@"D1;-'-&1(

•! H1'5(9"(:";1(";51;#.(*C&&1**$"-('-5(&"-%-@1-&.(

8#'--$-@(

•! I:8"**$>#1(9"(1-<";&1(:$-$:C:(:155#$-@(&"D1-'-9*((

S2(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Strategic Implications

•! ,55*('-"9A1;(51&$*$"-(:'+$-@(#'.1;(E$9A(-1@'%D1(

&"*9('-5(8;"5C&%D$9.($:8#$&'%"-*(

•! M"C#5(51D1#"8($-9"('(5.*<C-&%"-'#(@"D1;-'-&1('-5(

$-*%9C%"-(*9;C&9C;1(

•! !"**$>$#$9.("<(81;D1;*1(&":81-*'%"-(*9;C&9C;1(

SS(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

BUDGET 2010


SY(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Budget 2010: Spending Starts

•! NA1(QYO\49;(jrS4>-k(*81-5$-@(>$##(E'*(*$@-15($-9"(

#'E(>.(9A1('&%-@(8;1*$51-9(

•! I9(;18;1*1-9*('(@""5('-5(-1&1**';.(5$D1;*$"-(<";('(

&"C-9;.(">*1**15(E$9A(8"#$%&'#($-n@A%-@T(1#1&9";'#(

:'-"1CD;$-@('-5(*1&9';$'-(+$##$-@*(

•! 6'*$&('**C:8%"-*('-5(1*%:'91*("<(9A1(>C5@19(';1(

C-&A'-@15((

•! NA1(;$*+*('**"&$'915(E$9A(9A1(>C5@19(;1:'$-(

8;"<"C-5(

S[(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Summary of the Budget Risks

•! I-i'%"-(;$*+(

•! B":1*%&(>";;"E$-@(:'.($-&;1'*1(>1."-5(>C5@19(

1*%:'91*(

•! F'#1("<(6#"&*(;1:'$-(C-&1;9'$-(E$9A(!I6(

C-;1*"#D15(

•! U$*&'#(;1*8"-*$>$#$9.(&A'##1-@1*((

–! JC9@"$-@(@"D1;-:1-9*(';1(8;"-1(9"(8;"i$@'&.((

–! ,@@;1**$D1(1X1&C%"-("<(9A1(>C5@19(&"C#5(>1('(*"C;&1(

"<(#1'+'@1*(

S\(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

SOVEREIGN WEALTH

FUND

S](!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'


•! G$-$*91;(,@'-@'('--"C-&15(9A1($-91-%"-(9"(

1*9'>#$*A('(FWU(

•! ?1(A"81*(9"(*C>*%9C91(9A1(0M,(E$9A(9A1(FWU(

•! 0M,(E'*('-($5#1(<C-5(:'$-#.(C-$-D1*915(

•! NA1(:"5'#$%1*(';1(9"(>1(';%&C#'915($-(9A1(-1X9(S(

:"-9A*(

•! 6'*$&(ZC1*%"-*('*(9"(A"E(9A1(0M,(&'-(*1;D1('*('-(

$-D1*9:1-9(<C-5(;1:'$-(C-'-*E1;15(

Sovereign Wealth Fund: Better Late

Than Never

S_(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

S`(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

•! NA1(0M,($*(9A1(-'$;'(9;'-*#'%"-("<(9A1(5$m1;1-&1(

>19E11-(:';+19("$#(8;$&1('-5(9A1(>C5@19(>1-&A:';+(

•! I9($*('-('**19(9A'9($*('-($-91@;'#(8';9("<(9A1(0X91;-'#(

)1*1;D1*(

•! I<(9A1(FWU($*(9"("81;'91(#$+1("9A1;(811;(<C-5*($9(E$##(

>1(1X91;-'##.(<"&C*15(

•! I9(E$##($-D1*9(:'$-#.($-($-91;-'%"-'#(:';+19*(


Than Never

Y3(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

•! NA1(>1-1n&$';$1*("<(9A1(0M,(5"(-"9(A'D1(9A1($-D1*9:1-9(A";$p"-($51'#(<";('(:'-'@15(8";s"#$"(

•! NA1(*9'91(@"D1;-";*(5"(-"9(A'D1(9A1(8'%1-&1(-";(9A1(

91:81;':1-9(<";('(>C.('-5(A"#5(*9;'91@.(

•! ,#$@-$-@(9A1($-91;1*9*("<(9A1(!B!(:'&A$-1(E$9A(9A1(

$-D1*9:1-9(8A$#"*"8A.("<(9A1(FWU($*('(9'##(";51;(

•! N"9'#(@#">'#(FWU($*(rST_\]O]>-((

–! J$#('-5(='*(;1#'915(FWU($*(r2T22[>-(

–! (J9A1;*(*"C;&1*(1ZC'#(r4T[S2O]>-(


Than Never

Y4(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund by Assets as at March 2010

`"%*,09( 5%*#(J+61( A221,2((

i<*(

I*&18B"*( Y03C3*( K\5(,"(

5"01_(

]1210:1(

]+B"(

bQM((

I*#1_(

7,0L,>C(

BA'>$(

,>C(BA'>$(I-DO(

,C9A";$9.(

ijEZ( 4`]\( J$#( 4SO`( S(

Q";E'.(( ="D9(!1-*$"-(UC-5(g(

=#">'#(

ikZk( 4``3( J$#( _O_( 43(

F'C5$(

,;'>$'(

F,G,(U";1$@-(

?"#5$-@*(

ikRE( -d'( J$#( 4O4( 2(

MA$-'( F,U0(I-D1*9:1-9(M"O( iRkZfG( -d'( Q"-L

M"::"5$9.(

3O2( 2(

MA$-'( MA$-'(I-DO(M";O( iEOOfO( 233]( Q"-L

M"::"5$9.(

3O4( \(

F$-@'8";1( ="D9("<(F$-@'8";1(I-DO(

M";O(

iEkZfP( 4`_4( Q"-L

M"::"5$9.(

4OY( \(

Source: SWF Institute L-M Index means Linaburg-Maduell Transparency Index ( the higher the index the greater the transparency)

Y2(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'


Than Never

Source: SWF Institute

YS(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Outline

•! !"#$%&'#()$*+(,-'#.*$*/(0#1&%"-(2344('-5(61."-5(

•! !"#$&.(785'91(

•! 0&"-":$&(!1;<";:'-&1(

–! =#">'#(0&"-":$&(?$@A#$@A9*(

–! B":1*%&(0&"-":$&(?$@A#$@A9*(

•! 6C*$-1**(,&%D$9.()1D$1E(

•! F9"&+(G';+19(

•! H1'5$-@(0&"-":$&(I-5$&'9";*(

•! JC9#""+(<";(G'.(

YY(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

GLOBAL ECONOMIC

HIGHLIGHTS

Y[(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'


Global Economic Highlights

•! =#">'#(;1&"D1;.(-"E(<'$;#.(*9'>#1(

•! !'&1('-5(5189A("<(9A1(1X8'-*$"-($*(:$X15('-5($*(

D';$15('&;"**(-'%"-*('-5(;1@$"-*(

•! NA1(:"51("<(n-'-&$-@('-5(9A1(8;$&1(9'@($*('#*"(

*9';+#.(5$m1;1-9(>.(&"C-9;.(

•! NA1(>$@(&A'##1-@1($-(9A1('5D'-&15(1&"-":$1*($*(A"E(

9"(1-*C;1(9A'9(9A1(n-'-&$'#(*.*91:*(';1(*9;1-@9A1-15(

9"(E$9A*9'-5(<C9C;1(*A"&+*(

Y\(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Real GDP Growth of Selected Countries (%) EFFN( EFGFl( EFGGl(

hfKf( QEfk( RfG( Efj(

hfef( QkfN( GfR( EfP(

]%223+( QZfN( kfF( RfR(

`-3*+( OfZ( GFfF( NfN(

K3*C+8"01( QEfF( PfZ( PfR(

>31,*+6( PfR( jfF( jfP(

<0+d3$( QFfE( PfP( kfG(

[C98,( kfZ( PfF( PfP(

K"%,-(A;03&+( QGfO( Efj( Rfj(

J3C103+( Pfj( ZfF( ZfR(Source: IMF’s WEO, 2010

Note * are IMF forecast figures


Y](!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

•! NA1;1(';1(*":1(*$:$#';$%1*('-5(*$@-$n&'-9(

5$m1;1-&1*(>19E11-(9A1('88;"'&A1*(>1$-@('5"8915(

$-(;18"*$%"-$-@(9A1(6'-+$-@(*.*91:*(

•! FF,(A'*(-"9(>11-($::C-1(<;":(9A1(@#">'#(5"E-9C;-(

>C9(E'*(:";1(;1*$#$1-9(9A'-("9A1;(;1@$"-*(

•! NA1(*#"E5"E-(";(;1&1**$"-(E'*(D1;.(*A";9(&":8';15(

9"(8;1D$"C*(&.&#$&'#(5"E-9C;-*(";(518;1**$"-*(

•! FF,($*(-"E(1*%:'915(9"(@;"E(>.(YO][f($-(2343(

&":8';15(9"(2f($-(233`(


Y_(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

•! 2344($*(1D1-(#""+$-@(>;$@A91;(E$9A(IGU(1*%:'91*(

-"E(>1$-@(8C9('9([O][f(

•! I-(FF,("$#(1X8";91;*('-5(:$55#1($-&":1(&"C-9;$1*(

<';15(:C&A(E";*1(9A'-("9A1;*(

•! NA1*1(#"E($-&":1(&"C-9;$1*(9A'9(E1;1(#1**($-91@;'915(

'-5(#1'*9(1X8"*15(9"(9A1(D"#'%#1(&"::"5$9.(:';+19*((

E1;1(*8';15(9A1(5$*'*9;"C*(&"-*1ZC1-&1*(


Y`(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC

HIGHLIGHTS

[3(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'


Domestic Economic Highlights

•! Q$@1;$'-( =B!( @;"E9A( $*( *A"E$-@( *$@-*( "<( ;1*$#$1-&1('-5(*C*9'$-15(@;"E9A(

–! )1'#(=B!(@;1E(>.(\O]f($-(c4(2343T(C8(<;":(YO[f($-(c4(

233`(

•! NA1;1( *11:*( 9"( >1( '( 5$*&"--1&9( >19E11-( 5'9'( '-5(

9A1(#1D1#("<(1&"-":$&('&%D$9.(1*81&$'##.(e">*(

•! NA1( C-;'D1#$-@( "<( 9A1( >'-+$-@( *1&9";( 8;">#1:( '-5(

9A1(8;"&.&#$&'#( 9A1;'8.(A1#815( *%i1('-.(A"81("<( '-(

1';#.(;1&"D1;.(

–! '#*"(#15(9"('(AC@1(&;15$9(&;C-&A(

[4(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230' [2(

•! G'-C<'&9C;$-@(;1:'$-*(A':81;15(>.(8"E1;T(

$-<;'*9;C&9C;1T(5$*9;$>C%"-('-5(#"@$*%&*(&A'##1-@1*(

•! NA1(-'%"-'#(@;$5($*(-"E(>1#$1D15(9"(>1(@1-1;'%-@(

S233GW(

•! ?";%&C#9C;1('-5(&'*A(&;"8(8;"5C&%"-(E$##(&"-%-C1(

9"(5;$D1(*:'##L*&'#1('-5(&"::1;&$'#(<';:$-@O((

•! ,b1;('(&"-9;'&%"-($-(233`T(6'-+$-@(*1&9";(E$##(

E$9-1**(*9;"-@(@;"E9A($-(2343O(


[S(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

•! I-&;1'*15(n-'-&$'#($-91;:15$'%"-(5;$D1-(>.(

&":81%%"-($-(cY(E$##(8;"81#(=B!(@;"E9A($-(c4(2344(

•! U$*&'#(B":$-'-&1('-5(E$51;(;$*+*("<(M"-*C:1;('-5(

!;"5C&1;(!;$&1(I-i'%"-(

•! J$#(*1&9";(C-&1;9'$-%1*T('(E1'+1-$-@(n*&'#(8"*$%"-(

'-5(>'-+$-@(*1&9";(&"-&1;-*(8"*1(*C>*9'-%'#(

5":1*%&(;$*+*(

•! !"#$%&'#(51D1#"8:1-9*(E$##(*A'81(9A1(8"#$&.('@1-5'(

%##(,8;$#(2343(


[Y(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

•! F9;"-@(-"-L"$#(@;"E9A(E$##(5;$D1(9A1(1&"-":.($-(2343(

•! !"#$%&'#(1D1-9*('-5(9A1(*9;C@@#1(<";(8"E1;(E$##(

5":$-'91(9A1(Q$@1;$'-(:';+19($-(2343d2344(

•! NA1(1&"-":$&(;1<";:('@1-5'($*(-"E("-(A"#5('*('##(

*81-5$-@('-5(;1*"C;&1*(';1(9';@1915('9(1X9;'&%-@(

8"#$%&'#(&'8$9'#(<;":(9A1(1#1&9";'#(

•! ,(81'&1(5$D$51-5('-5(&'*A(8'.:1-9*(9"(9A1(:$#$9'-9*(

*A"C#5('**C;1('(91:8";';.(A'#9(9"(D$"#1-&1('-5(

5$*;C8%"-(9"("$#(8;"5C&%"-O(


[[(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Outline

•! !"#$%&'#()$*+(,-'#.*$*/(0#1&%"-(2344('-5(61."-5(

•! !"#$&.(785'91(

•! 0&"-":$&(!1;<";:'-&1(

–! =#">'#(0&"-":$&(?$@A#$@A9*(

–! B":1*%&(0&"-":$&(?$@A#$@A9*(

•! 6C*$-1**(,&%D$9.()1D$1E(

•! F9"&+(G';+19(

•! H1'5$-@(0&"-":$&(I-5$&'9";*(

•! JC9#""+(<";(G'.(

[\(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Business Activity Review

•! NA1;1(E'*('(5"E-E';5(9;1-5($-(>C*$-1**('&%D$9.($-(,8;$#(

•! NA1(:"-9A#.(*9'9C9";.('##"&'%"-(5$*>C;*1:1-9*('9(

Q2_YO[`>-($*(S4O\f(#"E1;(9A'-(QY4\OS>-($-(G';&A(

–! NA1(5$m1;1-%'#(E'*(1X&1**(&;C51('C@:1-9'%"-(9"(

G';&A('##"&'%"-((

•! U";1X(51:'-5(51&#$-15(>.(3O\Yf($-(,8;$#(9"(r2O3\_>-T(<;":(r2O3_4>-($-(G';&A(

•! FA$8*('E'$%-@(>1;9A('9(,8'8'('-5(N$-&'-(8";9*(51&#$-15(<;":(`\(9"(_]($-(,8;$#(

[](!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

•! R'#C1("<(&A1ZC1*(&#1';15(5;"8815(>.(4\OY`[f($-(9A1(

G"-9A(C-51;(;1D$1E(<;":(Q4TS\[>-($-(9A1(

8;1&15$-@(:"-9A(

•! 6'+1;(?C@A1*q("$#(;$@(&"C-9(E'*(5"E-(9"(44($-(G';&A(

<;":(42($-(U1>;C';.((

Source: Baker Hughes, 2010

B1&( t'-( U1>( G';(

4 5

4

6

4 4

8

5

Y3$(03C(&"%*,L(EFGF(

Onshore Offshore

Business Activity Review

[_(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

AVIATION


AVIATION

•! I-5C*9;.(*E1#91;$-@(C-51;(&;15$9";('-5(>'-+$-@(

8;1**C;1(

•! NA1(5":1*%&('D$'%"-($-5C*9;.(n-'##.(*C&&C:>15(9"(

>'-+$-@(8;1**C;1*(

•! M;15$9";($-5C&15(&'8$9'#(;1*9;C&9C;$-@('-5(

;1";@'-$p'%"-("<("E-1;*A$8(*E189(9A1(#1-5$-@(

&;15$9";(

•! R$;@$-(Q$@1;$'(,$;E'.*('--"C-&15('-('&ZC$*$%"-(>.(

QIMJQ(@;"C8($-('(*E$b(9'+1"D1;(9;'-*'&%"-(

\3(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

AVIATION

•! I,#:"*9(*$:C#9'-1"C*(E$9A(9A1(QIMJQ(9'+1"D1;(E'*(

9A1('--"C-&1:1-9(9A'9(,1;"(E'*(*11+$-@(&;15$9";(

8;"91&%"-(E$9A(9A1('**$*9'-&1("<(U=Q(

•! NA1(R$;@$-(Q$@1;$'(,$;E'.*('&ZC$*$%"-(E'*(@;11915(>.(

9A1(:';+19(E$9A(*C;8;$*1('-5(&"-*91;-'%"-(

•! NA1;1(A'D1(>11-(*1;$"C*(&"-&1;-*('>"C9(

:'$-91-'-&1T(*'<19.('-5(ZC'#$9.(*9'-5';5*(

•! NA1(&';;$1;(A'*('**C;15(9A1(8C>#$&(9A'9($9(E$##(>1(

:'$-9'$-$-@($9*(:'$-91-'-&1(&"-9;'&9(E$9A(HCbA'-*'(

91&A-$ZC1*(

\4(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

•! I9(8;"8"*1*(9"(1X8'-5($9*(i119(<;":(Y(9"(43('$;&;'b(

>1<";1(1-5(2343O(

•! ,--"C-&15(8#'-*(9"(@"(>'&+($-9"(9A1(A$@A#.(

&":81%%D1('-5(&C9L9A;"'9(#"-@LA'C#(:';+19((

•! U1';*("<(>;'-5('5C#91;'%"-(5C1(9"(;18C9'%"-($**C1*(

'-5(-'%D$9.(

•! I-D1*9";('-5(&"-*C:1;(&"-&1;-*(*91:(:";1(<;":(9A1(

;18C9'%"-('-5(81;&18%"-(;$*+*("<(9A1("E-1;*A$8(

&A'-@1(

AVIATION

\2(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

•! QIMJQ('$;E'.*($-('-(1';#$1;('&ZC$*$%"-(>.(9A1(@;"C8(

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AVIATION

\S(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

•! NA1;1(';1(<1';*("<(81;*"-'#$9.('-5(&C#9C;'#(:$*:'9&A(

>19E11-(9A1(-1E("E-1;*('-5(9A1(1X81&915(n-1**1(

"<(9A1($-5C*9;.(

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•! NA1($-91-*$9.("<(;$D'#;.(A'*($-&;1'*15('b1;('(81;$"5("<(

&'--$>'#$*%&(&":81%%"-("-(1D1;.(;"C91('-5(*1&9";(

AVIATION

\Y(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

\[(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

•! ,;$+($*(9'+$-@('5D'-9'@1("<(9A1(9;'D'$#*("<($9*(

&":81%9";*($-(1-9;1-&A$-@($9*1#<($-(9A1(:';+19O(

•! ,;$+($*('#*"(-"9($::C-1(9"(9A1(8;">#1:*(1*81&$'##.($9*(

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•! ,-.(%@A91-$-@(>.(9A1(;1@C#'9";*("-(8'*9L5C1(

8'.:1-9*(&"C#5(*ZC11p1(9A1(&';;$1;O(

•! U=Q(E$##(-115(9"(<'*9(9;'&+(9A1(>'$#("C9(<C-5(<";(

'D$'%"-(9"(8;1D1-9('-.(<'##($-(*'<19.T(*1&C;$9.('-5(

:'$-91-'-&1(*9'-5';5*(

AVIATION

\\(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

•! I-5C*9;.(9""(*9;'91@$&(9"(>1('##"E15(9"(5;$b(

•! NA1(-'%"-(-115*(9"(A'D1(*'<1('-5(;1#$'>#1(&';;$1;*($-(

9A1(5":1*%&(*8'&1O(

•! 7-$915(,$;#$-1*('-5(M"-%-1-9'#(,$;#$-1*(A'D1('@;115(

9"(:1;@1($-('(*A';1(*E'8(D'#C15('9(:";1(9A'-(rS>-(

9"(&;1'91(9A1(E";#5*(#';@1*9(&';;$1;(

•! I9(E$##(*C;8'**(B1#9'('$;#$-1*($-(*$p1('-5(8"*$%"-($9(9"(

&":8191($-(9A1(8;1:$C:(:';+19O(

AVIATION

\](!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

•! I9(E$##(i.(9"(S]3(51*%-'%"-*T(43(AC>*($-([`(&"C-9;$1*(

'-5(E$##(A'D1($9*(A1'5ZC';91;($-(9A1(W$-5.(M$9.("<(

MA$&'@"(

•! NA1(-1E(&';;$1;(E$##(;19'$-(9A1(7-$915(-':1(>C9(C*1(

9A1(M"-%-1-9'#(,$;#$-1(#"@"(

•! ,>"C9(r4>-(9"(r4O2>-(*.-1;@$p15('--C'#(;1D1-C1($*(

1X81&915(

•! 7-$915(,$;#$-1*($*(*&A15C#15(9"(&"::1-&1('(

W'*A$-@9"-LH'@"*d,&&;'((*1;D$&1(9A$*(*C::1;O(

AVIATION

\_(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

•! NA1(&":>$-15(1-%9.(C*$-@(9A1(&#"C9("<(9A1(*9';(

'##$'-&1(E$##(>1('(8"91-9(&":81%9";(9"(B1#9'(,$;#$-1*(

$-(Q$@1;$'O(

•! B1#9'(&C;;1-9#.(5":$-'91*(9A1(Q$@1;$'L7OF(9;'a&(E$9A(

,;$+('((5$*9'-9(*1&"-5O(

•! B1#9'($*(;18";%-@(`3f(#"'5(<'&9";("-(9A1(H'@"*(

,9#'-9'(;"C91($-(G'.O(

AVIATION

\`(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

•! B1#9'($*(9"(&"::1-&1(S(i$@A9*('(E11+(5$;1&9(<;":(

,>Ce'(9"(Q1E(K";+q*(l1--15.(,$;8";9(C*$-@(6"1$-@(

]\]O(

•! NA$*($*('(>1P1;(8;"5C&9('-5(*C81;$";(1ZC$8:1-9(9"(

9A1(&C;;1-9(][]O(

•! 6d,(9;'a&(*Cm1;15(<;":(9A1(>'&+(9"(>'&+(1m1&9*("<(

9A1(&'>$-(&;1E(*9;$+1('-5(9A1(D"#&'-$&('*A(*'@'O(

AVIATION

]3(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

•! NA1(@""5(-1E*($*(9A'9(9A1(:1;@1;("<(I>1;$'('-5(6d,(

E$##(*9;1-@9A1-(9A1(@;$8("<(9A1("-1LE";#5('##$'-&1($-(

9A1(Q$@1;$'-(:';+19O(

•! I>1;$'(A'*(S(i$@A9*('(E11+(9"(G'5;$5('-5(6d,(A'*(

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•! ,$;(ID";$1($*(&"::1-&$-@($9*(,>$5e'-LH'@"*LB"C'#'(

9A;11(<;1ZC1-&.(81;(E11+(*1;D$&1($-(tC-1O(

•! NA1(,>$5e'-(51*%-'%"-(($*(1X9;1:1#.($:8";9'-9(9"(

Q$@1;$'-(8'**1-@1;*O(

AVIATION

]4(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

REAL ESTATE

]2(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'


Real Estate •! !;"81;9.(D'#C1*(A'D1(

%@A91-15($-(9A1(#'*9(ZC';91;(

•! F'#1*(D'#C1(A'D1(5;"8815(>.((–! 43O]f(<";(519'&A15(

A"C*1*($-(ROI(>19E11-(U1>O('-5(,8;$#(

•! &":8';15(9"(9A1(23f(5;"8(*11-(<;":($9*(81'+($-(233_(9"(U1>;C';.("<(2343(

–! 2[f(<";(#CXC;.(i'9*($-(ROI(

–! 4\O]f(<";(519'&A15(A"C*1*($-(H1++$(!A'*1(4(

•! M":8';15(9"(23f(>19E11-($9*(81'+(j233_k('-5(U1>;C';.(2343(

Detached House

Neighborhood Peak Feb 2010

April 2010

% ! Peak/Feb 2010(

% ! April/Feb

Ikoyi (N’mn) 1,000 300 300 70% -

V.I (N’mn) 350 280 250 -20% -10.7%

V.I- Luxury Flat ($’000)

80 60 -25%

Lekki (N’mn) 150 120 100 -20% -16.7%

Oniru (N’mn) 80

GRA (N’mn) 260 200 200 -23% -

GRA- Luxury Flat (N’mn)

55 45 45 -18% -

]S(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Detached House Neighborhood Peak Feb

2010

April

2010

% ! Peak/

Feb 2010

% ! April/

Feb

Ikoyi (N’mn) 15 10 10 -33% -

V.I (N’mn) 10 8 8 -20% -

Lekki (N’mn) 7 5 3.5-5 -28.5% -

Oniru (N’mn) 3.5

GRA (N’mn) 5 4 4 -20% -

GRA- Luxury Flat (N’mn)

4 3 3 -25% -

Office Space Neighborhood Peak Feb

2010

April

2010

% !

Peak/Feb

2010

% !

April/Feb

Ikoyi ($’000, per sqm)

150 70

V.I ($’000, per sqm)

80 40 40 -50% -

Ligali ($’000, per sqm)

70 30 - -57%

Allen ($’000, per sqm)

20 -

•! This could suggest a preference for rented apartment due to the harsh economic conditions and credit squeeze in the financial sector

Real Estate

]Y(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Outline

•! !"#$%&'#()$*+(,-'#.*$*/(0#1&%"-(2344('-5(61."-5(

•! !"#$&.(785'91(

•! 0&"-":$&(!1;<";:'-&1(

–! =#">'#(0&"-":$&(?$@A#$@A9*(

–! B":1*%&(0&"-":$&(?$@A#$@A9*(

•! 6C*$-1**(,&%D$9.()1D$1E(

•! F9"&+(G';+19(

•! H1'5$-@(0&"-":$&(I-5$&'9";*(

•! JC9#""+(<";(G'.(

][(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Stock Market

•! NA1(:"-9A("<(,8;$#(:19(E$9A(:$X15(81;<";:'-&1('*(

9A1(QF0(*9;C@@#15(9"(:'$-9'$-($9*(@'$-*($-(2343(

–!G';+19(*1-%:1-9*(:$;;";15(1';-$-@*('--"C-&1:1-9*((

–! !;"n9(9'+$-@('&%D$%1*(&"-9;$>C915(9"(9A1(5"E-E';5(

8;1**C;1(

•! W$9-1**15($-&;1'*15(D"#'%#$9.('-5(9;'5$-@('&%D$9.(

#1D1#*(;1:'$-15(A$@A(

–! ,D1;'@1(D'#C1(9;'515(E'*(Q[O_>-($-(,8;$#T(&":8';15(9"(

QY>-($-(G';&A('-5(Q2OS>-($-(t'-C';.(

–! FA"E*($-&;1'*$-@($-91;1*9($-(9A1(*9"&+(:';+19(

]\(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

•! NA1(,FI('-5(:';+19(&'8(@'$-15(4O`f($-(,8;$#T(>;$-@$-@(

9A1(KNB('88;1&$'%"-(9"(2\O`f(('-5(2_O2fT(;1*81&%D1#.(

–! M":8';15(9"('(S2f(#"**($-(9A1(*':1(81;$"5($-(233`(

17,000.00

19,000.00

21,000.00

23,000.00

25,000.00

27,000.00

29,000.00

4,500.00

5,000.00

5,500.00

6,000.00

6,500.00

7,000.00

1/5/

2014

1/12

/20

14

1/19

/20

14

1/26

/20

14

2/2/

2014

2/9/

2014

2/16

/20

14

2/23

/20

14

3/2/

2014

3/9/

2014

3/16

/20

14

3/23

/20

14

3/30

/20

14

4/6/

2014

4/13

/20

14

4/20

/20

14

4/27

/20

14

ASI-MARKET CAP CHART

Year to date

Market Capitalisation NSE All-Share Index

ASI advanced by 22% in 6 weeks between March

1st and April 19

Stock Market

]](!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

•! NA1(518;1**15($-91;1*9(;'91(1-D$;"-:1-9(*8C;;15(

$-&;1'*15('&%D$9.($-(9A1(1ZC$9.(:';+19(

–! ,D1;'@1(518"*$9(;'91*("<(Sf('9(9A1(1-5("<(,8;$#(

•! NA1(*8'91("<(1';-$-@*('--"C-&1:1-9*(:$;;";15(9A1(

:';+19(:"D1:1-9(

•! F9;"-@(81;<";:'-&1(<;":(8#'.1;*($-(9A1(UGM=('-5(

&"-*9;C&%"-(*1&9";(

•! 6'-+*q(c4(2343(1';-$-@*('--"C-&1:1-9*(

–! FC@@1*9(:";1(1a&$1-9('**19(C%#$p'%"-('*(#"'-(";$@$-'%"-(

*#"E15(5;':'%&'##.(

–! N'+$-@('5D'-9'@1("<(5$*&"--1&9(>19E11-(#1-5$-@('-5(518"*$9(;'91*(

Stock Market

]_(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

]`(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Earnings Announcements: Mixed but Broadly Positive

_3(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Earnings Announcements

•! c4(2343(;1*C#9*(*1u-@('(8"*$%D1(9"-1(<";(2343 ((

_4(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Key Sectors Driving Performance

<01T10312( <%3$#3*C(

M+,103+$2(

`"*2,0%&B"*( 5""#L(

<1:10+C12(

m(c"D+&&"(

/1,0"$1%6(

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,88;1&$'%"-(

24O[Yf( 2ÒY]f( S4OY_f( Y[O__f( 2Ò`]f(

,D@(I-5C*9;.(

!0()'%"(

4]O]`( 4ÒY( 4Ò2_( 24O``( 43O\`(

•! ,88;1&$'%"-(A'*(>11-(#';@1#.(&"-&1-9;'915($-(9A1(UGM=T(

6C$#5$-@(G'91;$'#*('-5(M"-*9;C&%"-(*1&9";*((

•! !19;"#1C:(G';+1%-@(*1&9";(*8C;;15("-(>.(1X81&915(!I6(

#'E(

•! H"&'#(8#'.1;*(*%##(*9;C@@#1(C-51;(9A1(E1$@A9("<(-"-L81;<";:$-@(#"'-*(

•! ,D@(!0(;'%"("<(9"8(Y3(:"*9(&'8$9'#$p15(*9"&+*/(23O4S(_2(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Performance of Some Stocks

•! F":1(*A';1(8;$&1*(A'D1(>11-(8;"8815(>.(9A1(A1;5(1m1&9((

–! 1O@O(M"*9'$-(A'*(@'$-15(\_f(*$-&1(G';(4*9(51*8$91('(`3f(51&#$-1($-($9*(q3`(?K(!,N(

–! !"**$>$#$9.("<(*A';1(8;$&1(:'-$8C#'%"-(

_S(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Opportunities for PFAs

A&,%+$( A$$"T+D$1(b363,2( >+03+*&1(

B":1*%&(0ZC$%1*( 43O\Yf( 2[f( 4YOS\f(

U=Q(F1&C;$%1*( Y_O[Sf( Q,(

F9'91(="D9(F1&C;$%1*( SO[Sf( S3f( 2\OY]f(

M";8";'91(B1>9( 4O4`f( S3f( 2_O_4f(

B":1*%&(G"-1.(G';+19(

I-*9;C:1-9*(

SYO2Sf( S[f( 3O]]f(

J81-dM#"*1L0-5(UC-5*( 3OY4f( [f( YO[`f(

M'*A(V(J9A1;(,**19*( 4OY]f(

F"C;&1/(Q'%"-'#(!1-*$"-(M"::$**$"-(

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_Y(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Outlook

•! 0X81&9(9A1(*9"&+(:';+19(9"(:'$-9'$-($9*(8"*$%D1(9;1-5(

–! 0&"-":$&(1X8'-*$"-(E$##(>""*9(:';+19(81;<";:'-&1(

–! B;$D1-(>.($-&;1'*15(*81-5$-@(<;":(2343(>C5@19((

•! !;"#"-@15(*9"&+(:';+19('88;1&$'%"-(E$##(*8C;('(

;1"81-$-@("<(9A1(&'8$9'#(:';+19*(

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•! I-&;1'*15('&%D$9.($-(9A1(>'-+$-@(*1&9";(

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–! I:8#1:1-9'%"-("<(9A1(,GM(>$##(

_[(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Outline

•! !"#$%&'#()$*+(,-'#.*$*/(0#1&%"-(2344('-5(61."-5(

•! !"#$&.(785'91(

•! 0&"-":$&(!1;<";:'-&1(

–! =#">'#(0&"-":$&(?$@A#$@A9*(

–! B":1*%&(0&"-":$&(?$@A#$@A9*(

•! 6C*$-1**(,&%D$9.()1D$1E(

•! F9"&+(G';+19(

•! H1'5$-@(0&"-":$&(I-5$&'9";*(

•! JC9#""+(<";(G'.(

_\(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Leading Economic Indicators Indicators Feb. March Apr. %! (Mar/Apr)

Oil Markets

"!Prices (Monthly average, $pb)

75.32 81.28 85.46 5.14

"!Production (mbpd) 1.956 1.986 NA NA

Money Markets

"!OBB (%) 2.2 1.31 1.10 (0.21)

"!Overnight (%) 2.17 1.5 1.20 (0.3)

"!MPR (%) 6.0 6.0 6.0 -

"!Average T-Bill (%) 2.99 1.49 1.29 (13.4)

Inflation

"!CPI 12.3 11.8 NA NA

Exchange rate (end period)

"!Official (N/$) 148.6/1 148.51/1 148.61/1 (0.07)

"!Interbank (N/$) 150.52/1 150.4/1 150.18/1 0.14

"!Parallel (N/$) N152/1 152/1 153/1 (0.67)

5)-'6&E(D,)).@&'B(2(F5G2(?+H42(4D32(!)#&%(!7'I&%2(C14(( _](!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Y3$(803&1(m(80"#%&B"*(>2(n%",+(

F"C;&1/(GG,(

Source: Reuters, Bloomberg Source: OPEC

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Source: NBS Source: FMF

Source: CBN source: CBN

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0X91;-'#()1*1;D1*(jrv>-k(

_`(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Inflation…threat is real

•! I-i'%"-($-(G';&A(51&#$-15(:';@$-'##.(9"(44O_f((

•! U""5(8;$&1*(51&#$-15(K"K(9"(4SO[f($-(c4(2343(

•! I-i'%"-(9A;1'9(E$##(>1(#';@1#.('*('(;1*C#9("<(9A1(1X8'-*$"-';.(2343(>C5@19(*$@-15($-9"(#'E('-5(8;1L

1#1&%"-(*81-5$-@O(

`3(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

`4(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Money Market…NIBOR falls due

to credit freeze

•! ?$@A(#1D1#("<(#$ZC$5$9.(5C1(9"(M6Q*('C5$9(1X1;&$*1('-5(ZC'-%9'%D1(1'*$-@(

•! U1##($-(:';&A(9"(A$*9";$&(#"E(

•! M;15$9(1X91-*$"-(>.(>'-+*($-(c4(E'*(#$:$915((

`2(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Focus on Forex/External Reserves

•! N"9'#(51:'-5(<";(<";1X(($-(,8;$#(E'*(r2O3\_>-T(3O\Yf(

#1**(9A'-(G';&A(#1D1#*("<(r2O3_4>-(

•! B1:'-5(81;(9;'5$-@(5'.('9(9A1("a&$'#(:';+19(*"';15(

>.(Y4O`f($-(,8;$#(9"(r2`[OY[:$##$"-(

•! ,D1;'@1(51:'-5('9(9A1(#'*9(E11+("<('C&%"-(E'*(

rS]_O]_:$##$"-(

–! S\f(A$@A1;(9A'-(9A1(A$@A1*9(81'+($-(G';&A(

•! M6Q(E'*("-#.('>#1(9"(:119(_[f("<(51:'-5(<";(,8;$#(

&":8';15(9"(433f($-(G';&A(`S(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Focus on Forex/External Reserves

•! NA1(*A";s'##(E'*(:19(>.(5"##';(*'#1*(>.(

GC#%-'%"-'#*('-5(QQ!M((

•! NA1(Q'$;'('*(518;1&$'915(>.(3O3]f('-5(3O\]f('9(>"9A(9A1("a&$'#('-5(8';'##1#(:';+19*(;1*81&%D1#.(

•! 0X91;-'#(;1*1;D1*(A'D1(*A;C-+(3O`\f(>.(,8;$#(2_(9"(&#"*1('9(rY3O2`>-(<;":(rY3O\_>-("-(G';&A(S4(

•! NA1(<'##($-(;1*1;D1*(E'*('*('(;1*C#9("<(9A1($-&;1'*15(8;1**C;1($-(9A1(#'*9(9E"(E11+*("<(9A1(:"-9A(

–! )1*1;D1*($-&;1'*15(>.(4O\f($-(9A1(n;*9(9E"(E11+*(

`Y(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Forex Outlook

•! I-&;1'*15(8;1**C;1(*11-($-(9A1(8';'##1#(:';+19*("D1;(

9A1(#'*9(9E"(E11+*("<(,8;$#($*(1X81&915(9"(&"-%-C1(

•! )$*$-@("$#(8;$&1*(E$##(A1#8(@$D1(n##$8(9"(9A1(1X91;-'#(;1*1;D1*(

•! NA$*(E$##(>1(*C88";915(>.($-&;1'*15(*'#1("<(U";1X(>.("$#(:'e";*(

•! Q'$;'($*(1X81&915(9"(;1:'$-(*9'>#1('9(>19E11-(

Q4Y_O[dr4LQ4Y`dr4($-(9A1("a&$'#(:';+19(

`[(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Outlook for Indicators

•! J$#(8;$&1(9"(9;'51($-(r_[Lr_`8>(;'-@1($-(G'.(

•! I-&;1'*1($-($-i'%"-';.(8;1**C;1(5C1(9"(1X8'-*$"-';.(

n*&'#(8"#$&.(

•! G';+19($*(1X81&915(9"(;1:'$-(#$ZC$5(

•! G';@$-'#(C8*E$-@($-(;'91*($*(1X81&915((

`\(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Outline

•! !"#$%&'#()$*+(,-'#.*$*/(0#1&%"-(2344('-5(61."-5(

•! !"#$&.(785'91(

•! 0&"-":$&(!1;<";:'-&1(

–! =#">'#(0&"-":$&(?$@A#$@A9*(

–! B":1*%&(0&"-":$&(?$@A#$@A9*(

•! 6C*$-1**(,&%D$9.()1D$1E(

•! F9"&+(G';+19('-5(M":81%9";(,-'#.*$*(

•! H1'5$-@(0&"-":$&(I-5$&'9";*(

•! JC9#""+(<";(G'.(

`](!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Outlook for May

#!I-91;1*9(;'91*(9"(>"P":("C9(

#!I-&;1'*1($-($-i'%"-';.(8;1**C;1(5C1(9"(1X8'-*$"-';.(n*&'#(8"#$&.(

#!Q'$;'(9"(&":1(C-51;(8;1**C;1(

–! I-D1*9";*(*A";9(9A1(&C;;1-&.(<";($-91;1*9(;'91(.$1#5(8$&+(C8(

–! F1'*"-'#(8;1**C;1*((

#!M"*9(1a&$1-&$1*('-5(;$*+(:'-'@1:1-9(;1:'$-(+1.(*C&&1**(<'&9";*(

#!,GM(>$##(9"(>1(*$@-15($-(9"(H'E(

#!U$-'#$p$-@(9A1(F'#1("<(9A1(;1*&C15(6'-+*((

`_(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

M";8";'91(?C:"C;(

•! I9($*(>1P1;(9"(#$D1(;$&A(9A'-(9"(5$1(;$&A(

( ( ( ( ( ( (L(D$58)&'E/6#-/#'

•! !1;<1&%"-("<(:1'-*('-5(&"-<C*$"-("<(@"'#*(*11:($-(

:.("8$-$"-T(9"(&A';'&91;$p1("C;('@1(

( ( ( ( ( ( (g(?&A)*2'F"#-2)"#'

•! )1'#(#1'51;*(';1(";5$-';.(81"8#1(E$9A(1X9;'";5$-';.(5191;:$-'%"-(

( ( ( ( ( ( (L((E/6#'G$*#)*'

``(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230' 433(

M";8";'91(?C:"C;(

•! Q"9A$-@($*(:";1(5'-@1;"C*(9A'-(*$-&1;1($@-";'-&1(V(

&"-*&$1-%"C*(*9C8$5$9.(

( ( ( ( ( ( (L(H$*,#'1826)*'I"#@'

•! ?1(EA"(E$*A1*(9"(>1(;$&A($-('(5'.(E$##(>1(A'-@15($-('(.1';(

( ( ( ( ( ( (g(1)/*#$3/'3$'="#%"'

434(!"#$#%"$&'()*"+$,+)-'./0'1230'

Thank you for Reading


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