Montague Consult Global Recruitment Survey Q3 2012

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Montague ConsultGlobal Recruitment Survey

Q3 2012


Introduction

The Montague Consult Global Recruitment Survey is collated from a number of sources including the Manpower Global Employment Outlook Survey and the Antal International Global Snapshot Survey.

All information held within this document is designed to share an overview of activity within the Recruitment and Employment Industry on a global platform. To date, there has been a short fall in obtaining such information and as such Montague Consult aims to provide this statistical analysis in order to furnish those working within the Recruitment Industry, employers and HR can access the information easily.


International Comparison - Americas

Nearly 30,000 employers from 10 countries in North, Central and South America were interviewed to measure hiring activity in Quarter 3 2012. The hiring pace is expected to remain positive in each country through the next three months, and Net Employment Outlooks improve or remain stable in five of the 10 countries quarter-over-quarter. In a comparison with Quarter 3 2011, Outlooks improve or remain stable in six of the 10 countries. Opportunities for job seekers are expected to be strongest in Brazil, Panama and Peru, and weakest in Argentina and the United States, although the U.S. Outlook is the strongest reported since Quarter 3 2008. Bullish hiring expectations in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate industry sector are contributing to Brazil’s bright Outlook; government measures here to cut interest rates and encourage consumer spending and growth are evidently beginning to have an impact. Despite reporting the strongest forecast in the Americas, the Outlook from Brazilian employers—as well as those in Argentina—is notably more cautious than three months ago and is the weakest forecast since Quarter 1 2010. Meanwhile, the upbeat Outlook reported in the United States is led by demand in the Leisure & Hospitality and Professional & Business Services sectors. Although the U.S. Outlook continues a steady pattern of improvement, the results have not translated to meaningful job creation, yet there are definite signs that there are a growing number of opportunities for job seekers with the right skill sets. Optimism among Peruvian employers improves moderately in a year-over-year comparison, and employers anticipate an active hiring pace in most of the country’s industry sectors and regions; opportunities for job seekers are expected to be strongest in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, and hiring plans in the Manufacturing and Transportation & Utilities sectors are the strongest in approximately four years. And as they have in seven of the eight previous quarters, Canadian employers in the Mining sector continue to report the strongest hiring plans in the country, although government reports indicate that demand for skilled workers is expected to outstrip the supply and compel employers to look beyond their own borders to locate suitable talent.


International Comparison – Americas Cont.

ArgentinaIn a similar fashion to the majority of the Americas, Argentina’s hiring activity has fallen this quarter from 65% to 44%. The next few months offer more positive prospects for Argentina’s job seekers though, as recruitment levels will start to recover again and hiring rates will go back up to 50%. There is currently a higher degree of turnover than expected within the Argentinean job market, as the percentage of businesses shedding staff has increased to a high of 43%. The Argentinean employment market will settle over the coming quarter, however, and the upward trend in job cuts over the past six months will end.

BrazilThe past six months have seen Brazil’s recruitment levels steadily fall below the halfway mark. At present, 42% of Brazilian businesses are recruiting at a managerial and professional level. Fortunately, the coming quarter should see this negative trend finish and hiring rates will start increasing again to 48%. On the other side of the employment market, the number of Brazilian companies letting staff go, or looking to do so over the next three months, has increased once more from 26% to 33%. It should be noted, however, that this figure is still one of the lowest of any of the countries surveyed across the Americas.

CanadaDespite a decrease in the percentage of companies taking on new recruits this March, Canada currently boasts the highest employment figures of the Americas - 53%. This is expected to remain the case as the year progresses, with Canadian recruitment rates increasing to 55%. Following December’s dip in firing activity, job losses have once again returned to 37%, but this is most likely due to the Canadian job market rightsizing after a jump in employment last quarter.


International Comparison – Americas Cont.

ChileIn this quarter’s snapshot, Chile’s job market is once again characteristic of the Americas in general. Hiring levels have fallen from 60% to 42%, while job losses have gone up slightly to 39%. On a brighter note, however, the following few months should offer a better outlook for those seeking work in Chile. This quarter’s Snapshot predicts a respectable increase of 11% in hiring activity and a lack of movement around job loss figures for Chile. All these signs indicate that Chile’s job market is set to grow in the next three months.

Mexico At 36%, there has been a quite significant drop in the level of Mexican companies taking on new staff this quarter. This dip will only be brief however, with hiring rates increasing once more over the coming three months. The percentage of companies reducing their staff headcount has risen slightly at the beginning of 2012. At 31%, though, Mexico currently holds the lowest rates for job cuts of any of the American countries surveyed. The following quarter is expected to result in firing activity rising modestly to 37%, but whether this occurs in reality is yet to be seen.

United States of AmericaHiring rates in the United States of America have remained relatively constant this quarter - falling just 3% to 48%. Job losses within the employment market have varied slightly more during this time, with 32% of companies letting staff go- 6% up on December’s figures. Overall, however, the job market in the United States of America has been the most stable of any of its neighbouring countries over the last three months. This stability is set to continue into the near future with recruitment rates fluctuating by just 1% and firing level varying by a modest 3%. Winners & Losers


International Comparison – Asia Pacific

Manpower Group interviewed more than 16,000 employers across Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore and Taiwan to measure anticipated hiring activity in the July-September time frame. Positive hiring plans are reported throughout the region with employers in India, Taiwan and Singapore anticipating the strongest hiring intentions. With the exception of Australia, hiring expectations improve or remain stable from three months ago in each of the region’s labour markets. However, in a year-over-year comparison, Net Employment Outlooks weaken in five of eight countries and territories; the most notable decline in hiring sentiment is reported by employers in Australia where job prospects weaken across all industry sectors. Opportunities for job seekers are again expected to be strongest in India where the Outlook now matches the most optimistic forecast reported by the country’s employers. Notably, India’s employers have now reported the most optimistic hiring plans among all of the countries and territories surveyed for three consecutive quarters. Additionally, Net Employment Outlooks in three industry sectors match or exceed the strongest forecasts on record. Hiring in the Services sector continues to be strong. Rapid job growth is also expected in the Retail sector, due partly to the relaxed legislation regarding single-brand retail; growth in the sector is causing structural talent shortages that the Retailers Association of India hopes to remedy by training five million people over the next five years.


International Comparison – Asia Pacific Cont.

Demand in the Services sector is also fuelling optimism in Taiwan as employers in the thriving Tourism segment struggle to find the right talent. Meanwhile, the strong third-quarter forecasts in mainland China’s Chonqing, Wuhan and Suzhou regions reflect how companies are moving operations inland to the Central & West region from the country’s coastal hubs as a means of offsetting labour arbitrage. Elsewhere in the region, Japan’s Outlook has climbed steadily for three years and is now the strongest since the third quarter of 2008. The effects of the rebuilding effort following last year’s tsunami and a boost in consumer spending is manifesting itself in steady improvements to Japan’s Construction and Retail sectors. Confidence among the country’s employers is also boosting hiring intentions in the Manufacturing sector to the strongest level in more than four years.

AustraliaAustralia’s recruitment activity has fallen by 18% this quarter to 55% - a value better reflecting that predicted back in the Snapshot of July 2011. This figure is set to level out over the coming three months, however, with 54% of Australian companies looking to take on staff in the near future. On the other side of the employment market, job cuts in Australia have increased for the start of 2012 from 31% to 41%. The good news, though, is that for this next quarter the percentage of companies looking to shed employees should take a downward turn and fall to 38%.



ChinaIn line with the country’s BRICS status, the percentage of Chinese companies hiring at a managerial / professional level has increased this quarter. Current hiring rates stand at 72% and will remain in the seventies over the next few months. The number of Chinese businesses downsizing staff numbers has also increased for this quarter’s report - rising from 17% to 24%. This indicates a growing degree of turnover within the Chinese job market for the immediate future - though Chinese firing rates will still be lower than most in the region.

IndiaAfter an impressive year of recruitment activity, Indian hiring levels have fallen to 55% for the start of 2012. This brief lull will not continue, however, with the level of Indian businesses taking on new staff rising again to 57% next quarter. The percentage of companies letting staff go currently stands at 24% - 3% higher than in December but still lower than some in the region. Predictions have been made in this quarter’s Snapshot that over the next few months job cuts will rise to 38%, but whether this relatively large jump actually occurs is yet to be seen.

JapanThe Japanese employment market has taken a bit of a hit this quarter - understandable given the recent natural disasters impacting this country. The percentage of Japanese companies hiring new staff at present has fallen from an impressive 75% to 56%, in a similar fashion to a number of other countries in the region. On a brighter note, hiring activity will start to recover over the next few months - rising to 58%. Job cut rates have grown this quarter to 36%, with a further 8% increase expected in the coming months. This is, however, reasonable considering the consequences of the recent earthquake and tsunami.



MalaysiaAfter a modest, yet notable rise in recruitment activity for December, Malaysian hiring rates have returned to the mid-forties, last seen in the March 2011 Snapshot. The number of companies taking on new managerial and professional staff currently stands at 44% - 11% down on December’s total. Firing rates have also seen quite a considerable rise during this time, from just 11% to 32%. Over the following three months however, things should be steadier for the Malaysian job market with hiring and firing rates varying just 2% and 1% respectively.

New ZealandManagerial and professional staff looking for employment in New Zealand will not have seen the predicted 11% rise in recruitment made in December’s Snapshot. Hiring activity has remained relatively stable, though, with a slight decrease of 3% to 53%. The following few months should see the promised growth in recruitment rates, with the number of companies taking on new staff rising to 61%. On the other side of the employment market, the percentage of New Zealand’s companies reducing staff headcount has gone up over the past few months to 36% - much like its neighbour Australia. Whether the further 8% increase in job losses predicted in this quarter’s Snapshot actually happens, though, is yet to be confirmed.

PhilippinesAt the start of 2012, the Philippines continue to boast the world’s highest levels of recruitment. This quarter, a remarkable 97% of companies are hiring at a managerial / professional level - a figure well above any other country surveyed. The firing rates for the Philippines are also the most appealing across the globe, with just 5% of businesses currently shedding employees and 4% looking to do so in the near future. As this year progresses, the job market in the Philippines should continue to remain exceptionally stable.



Singapore Hiring rates in Singapore have fallen slightly since December from 44% to 39%. Recruitment activity for this country, however, remains higher than it was in either March or July last year - 35% and 29% respectively. The percentage of companies letting staff go has risen quite notably from 12% to 23% this quarter. The good news is that the coming quarter should see these job loss rates start to lower again, indicating a rightsizing of the job market in Singapore.

South KoreaAt 56%, the hiring rates in South Korea are slightly higher than many countries in the region. This figure is set to drop modestly over the next few months, but half of the South Korean businesses surveyed will continue to recruit at a managerial and professional level during this time. The present situation looks good for South Korean’s job market in terms of firing rates, with 19% of companies currently shedding staff - one of the lowest in the Far East. As the year progresses, job losses are predicted to rise by 10%, but the situation for South Korea will remain better than for some of its neighbours.

TaiwanTaiwan currently boasts the second highest recruitment rates for the Asia Pacific region. In this March’s Snapshot, 68% of companies are taking on new recruits and 62% still expecting to do so over the next few months. The percentage of Taiwan’s businesses cutting managerial / professional positions has been recorded at 34% this quarter comparatively higher than some of the surrounding countries. The level of turnover in Taiwan’s job market has been predicted to jump quite substantially to 48% new quarter.



VietnamThe Vietnamese employment market has been more active for the start of 2012. Both hiring and firing rates have increased over the last few months, indicating a lot more turnover in this country’s job market. The number of Vietnamese companies currently hiring new staff has gone up by 3% to 53%, while the rate of job cuts has risen quite substantially from just 10% to 35%. The situation will improve modestly over the coming quarter, however, with hiring rates continuing to increase to 59% while firing activity remains steady.


International Comparison – EMEA Approximately 19,500 employers across 23 countries in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region were interviewed to gauge anticipated hiring activity for Quarter 3 2012. The short-term hiring forecast across the EMEA region is relatively stable or improved from the second quarter in 20 of the 23 countries. However, Net Employment Outlooks weaken in 17 countries in a year-over-year comparison. The region’s hiring plans are strongest in Turkey, Israel, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia and Norway, and are weakest in Greece. The buoyant forecast in Turkey is partially due to optimism in the Public & Social sector as employers respond to the Labour Ministry’s approval of funding for 34,000 new positions in government combined with an aggressive recruitment initiative for Education. Meanwhile, optimism is notably weaker in Germany as many large companies plan downsizings in the months ahead; Net Employment Outlooks fall in all but one industry sector year-over-year. Similarly, hiring plans in the Netherlands remain subdued as employers there report their first negative forecast since the second quarter of 2010. Meanwhile, employer sentiment in the Manufacturing sector has now declined for four consecutive quarters and hiring plans are at their weakest since the Dutch survey began in 2003. Employer hiring sentiment in the UK remains tepid as the country unexpectedly slipped into its second official recession in four years following a larger than anticipated slump in financial services, oil and gas extraction and construction. Still, opportunities do exist for those with in-demand skill sets. This is especially true for top-level engineers; employers in nearly half of the UK’s engineering firms currently experience difficulty in their attempts to find suitable senior-level engineers, and more than a third complain that less-experienced recruits often fail to meet their requirements. Despite one of the lowest unemployment rates on the European continent, the labour market in Switzerland remains stagnant. There are encouraging signs that investments in the Construction sector may increase, triggered by low interest rates. However, these developments have yet to spark a corresponding uptick in hiring as the Construction sector Outlook sinks to its weakest level since the Swiss survey began.


International Comparison – EMEA Cont.

Europe’s debt crisis continues to place a drag on regional hiring intentions—all seven countries reporting negative third-quarter hiring intentions are in the region.

AustriaAs December’s Snapshot predicted, Austrian hiring levels have remained above 40% this quarter. The number of companies currently recruiting new staff stands at 43% and is set to remain quite stable over the next few months. Austrian firing levels have also increased this quarter; rising from 19% to 35%. This however, is most likely a result of the significant recruitment boom within Austrian companies seen in the latter half of 2011.

BelgiumRecruitment of managerial and professional staff in Belgium has fallen quite substantially this quarter from 60% to 46%. This is set to level out over the coming months, however, and remain at 43%. Belgium’s firing levels have been more stable during the first quarter of 2012 and currently stand at 28%. This figure is expected to rise very modestly to 32% but still remain lower than the high of 37% seen this time last year.

DenmarkThose seeking managerial positions in Denmark this quarter have not seen the expected boom of employment, as predicted by December’s Snapshot. Hiring levels have remained relatively consistent though, falling just 2% from 53% to 51%. Over the following few months, the percentage of companies recruiting is expected to fall a little further to 47%. This figure, however, is greater than hiring levels currently present within some of Denmark’s neighbouring countries. On the other hand, firing levels have also dropped slightly this quarter to 35%, indicating more of those already in employment are keeping their jobs.



FinlandAs predicted, hiring levels in Finland have fallen this quarter, while the number of businesses looking to shed staff has risen. This has happened to a greater extent than expected; particularly in terms of the percentage of companies recruiting new staff. According to this quarter’s Snapshot, hiring rates in Finland now stand at 49% rather than the predicted 57%. The next quarter is looking more positive, however, with hiring levels remaining relatively consistent at 45% and Finland’s firing levels dropping from 39% to 31%.

FranceThe number of French companies looking to recruit at a managerial and professional level has dropped quite significantly in the early months of 2012. At present, 36% of businesses in France are hiring new staff. Over the next few months, things are expected to take a turn for the better, however. Hiring levels are predicted to be 39% next quarter, indicating a modest yet noteworthy rise and an increase in stability within the French job market. Firing levels for the present quarter and those predicted for the next have remained somewhat more stable, with 30% of French businesses currently letting staff go and 32% looking to do so in the near future.

GermanyDespite the present unrest concerning the Euro in Western Europe, Germany’s job market has once again remained stable this quarter. Recruitment figures have not fallen to 25% as predicted in December’s Snapshot, but remain at 32%. The percentage of German companies letting staff go this quarter also stands at a consistently low rate of 8% and just 7% of businesses are currently looking to shed staff at a managerial / professional position over the next three months.



GreeceFollowing a somewhat surprisingly high degree of recruitment last quarter, given Greece’s current economic instability, hiring levels in Greece have fallen in the start of 2012. At present, 42% of Greek businesses are taking on new staff at a managerial and professional level; 18% less than in December. The percentage of companies letting people go has also risen from 38% to 45%, perhaps quite understandably. The good news, however, for Greece is that over the next three months hiring levels are once again set to take a positive turn, with 47% of Greek corporations looking to recruit new staff.

IrelandSimilar to much of Western Europe, the percentage of Irish companies undergoing recruitment has fallen this quarter. 43% of businesses are currently hiring at a managerial / professional level, while 42% will be looking to do so over the next quarter. Firing rates have remained more stable though, rising just 3% over the last three months. This is particularly pleasing given that Ireland had one of the highest levels of recruitment in the last Snapshot, indicating many of the managerial staff hired in Q4 2011 are keeping their jobs.

ItalyDespite much fluctuation for some of its neighbouring countries, Italy’s employment market has stayed relatively steady this quarter. Hiring levels have dropped slightly from 42% to 39% and the number of Italian companies letting staff go has risen a little to 15%. It should be noted however, that this current level of job loss is one of the lowest in Western Europe and is predicted to remain so for the coming quarter. This infers a good amount of job stability for those already working in Italy.



LuxembourgAfter a significant boom in hiring activity at the end of 2012, the percentage of companies in Luxembourg currently taking on new staff has gone back down to 50%. This is expected to decrease slightly over the next three months to 48% but remain more or less stable. Firing levels in Luxembourg have also decreased quite dramatically this quarter, from 41% to 23%, and are set to remain in the twenties for the coming months. This indicates more employees hired in the boom are keeping their jobs.

MaltaHiring levels have dropped quite substantially in Malta this quarter to 53%. This, however, does follow an impressive 82% of businesses hiring staff in the months leading up to December - the highest for Western Europe. Understandably, the number of companies shedding staff has also risen rather significantly from 27% to 58% during this time. Firing levels, however, are set to take a downward turn during the coming quarter, falling from 58% to 53%.

NetherlandsThings are looking positive for the Netherlands’ job market this quarter. Hiring levels have steadied at 40% and are set to rise to 50% over the next few months - 1% higher than July last year. Though only a 1% decrease in job loss was predicted, the number of companies letting staff go has also fallen considerably this quarter from 38% to just 20%. This value is expected to go down further to 19% over the next three months, signalling a fair amount of growth for the Dutch employment market.



NorwayFollowing quite significant activity within the Norwegian job market last quarter, hiring levels have fallen for the start of 2012. At present, 48% of companies are employing managerial / professional staff and 45% are expecting to do so over the next few months. Job loss activity has also decreased, though not quite as much as predicted. The percentage of Norwegian businesses currently cutting staff has fallen from 35% to 29%. The next quarter is set to see a slight increase in this figure but Norwegian jobs will still remain more stable than six months ago.

Portugal After a somewhat inconsistent year, hiring rates in Portugal have settled around those seen this time last year. At present, 35% of companies are recruiting new staff and 37% are looking to do so over the coming quarter. Job losses have also increased from 23% to 36% in the first part of 2012, indicating a higher level of turnover in the Portuguese employment market. This does follow a significant drop in the number of companies letting staff go, however, and resembles more the activity seen in March last year when Portugal’s employment activity was more steady.

SpainRecruitment rates in Spain have recovered slightly this quarter to 29%, after falling by 8% in December. On the other side, the percentage of companies shedding employees has also increased from 18% to 26% over the last few months. This is understandable, however, given the sudden dip in job cuts in last quarter’s Snapshot and is equivalent to those present before the slump. Firing levels are set to remain stable for the near future, inferring an increase in stability for the Spanish employment market over the coming months.



SwedenSimilar to many of the other higher flyers seen last quarter within Western Europe, hiring levels in Sweden have gone down quite dramatically over the last three months. The percentage of Swedish companies taking on new staff has fallen from 68% to 46%. This is expected to improve, however, over the coming quarter and rise to a respectable 50%. The rate of job cuts will remain more stable during this period, varying just 2% from 28% to 30%. This is reassuring, despite a fall in recruitment activity, as it indicates that those hired during the boom are retaining their positions.

SwitzerlandFollowing an unexpected rise in employment last quarter, the percentage of businesses in Switzerland taking on new staff has fallen to 31% during the start of 2012. This is set to decrease to 23% over the few coming months. On a positive note, however, job loss rates are at a consistently low level for Western Europe - standing at just 12%. This lack of turnover in Switzerland’s employment market is expected to continue for the next quarter, offering a high degree of job security for those employed by Swiss companies.

United KingdomThe level of recruitment activity in the United Kingdom has remained more stable this quarter, after taking a quite significant dip in the lead up to December. Currently, 45% of companies in the United Kingdom are recruiting at a managerial and professional level and the same will be looking to do so over the next few months. The number of businesses shedding staff this quarter has increased slightly from 24% to 28%. This figure, however, is still lower than that seen six months ago. As the year progresses, the United Kingdom can look forward to a notably stable employment market, despite the current unrest other countries in the European Union may be experiencing with the Euro.



BulgariaThe start of 2012 has seen a new high in terms of hiring activity for Bulgarian businesses. Recruitment of managerial / professional staff has increased by an impressive 14% from 48% to 62% this quarter, indicating a positive outlook for those seeking employment in this country. On the other side, the percentage of Bulgarian companies currently letting staff go has also increased to 37%, but to a lesser extent than that seen for recruitment. Though 37% indicates a relatively high staff turnover at present; this figure is predicted to remain stable over the next few months, putting an end to the upward trend in Bulgarian job losses over the past six months.

CroatiaCurrent hiring activity in Croatia has taken a positive turn this quarter, rising from 38% to 43%. Over the next few months, the percentage of Croatian companies recruiting is expected to diminish slightly but will remain above 40%. In terms of job cuts, the number of companies shedding staff in Croatia has risen quite dramatically over the last three months from just 13% to 27%, indicating a high level of turnover within the Croatian job market. The coming quarter should see this unexpected increase in activity end, however, with firing levels dropping down again to 19%.

Czech RepublicAfter a sudden boom in employment registered in last quarter’s Snapshot, hiring levels in the Czech Republic have returned to 47% over the last three months. The percentage of companies letting staff go has also risen during this time from 23% to 28%, though to a far less extent than recruitment levels have dropped. This represents a positive outlook for those in employment, as businesses in the Czech Republic have clearly retained much of the workforce hired during December’s boom. Job cuts are set to fall again over the next quarter to 25%, offering further stability for employees within the Czech Republic.



HungaryThere is good news for Hungary in this quarter’s Snapshot, as hiring levels have remained consistent at 38% - despite being predicted to fall considerably to just 27%. The number of companies looking to recruit at a managerial / professional level is set to decrease slightly over the coming three months but only by a further 2%. On the other side, the percentage of Hungarian businesses shedding employees has also fallen slightly from 29% to 26%, indicating more staff with managerial positions are keeping their jobs.

PolandDespite once again being predicted to fall, recruitment rates in Poland have remained consistent at a respectable 58% this quarter. This Snapshot suggests that this will drop to 52% over the next three months, but only time will tell if this is case. Firing levels in Poland have also stayed attractively low during the first quarter of 2012. At present, just 16% of Polish companies are downsizing their workforce and only 15% are planning to do so over the next three months.

RomaniaThe percentage of Romanian businesses currently hiring new staff has fallen this quarter from 57% to 49%. This is set to stabilise over the coming three months, however, changing by just 1% to 48%. The level of job cuts has also stayed relatively consistent for March’s Snapshot. At present the number of Romanian companies shedding managerial / professional staff stands at 27% - only 1% up on December’s figures. Next quarter, job loss figures will also increase by 1%, indicating the Romanian employment market is remarkably steady at this time.



RussiaThe level of hiring activity in Russia has fallen this quarter from 67% to 58%. Despite this, Russia still boasts higher employment rates than any of those present across Europe at this time. The percentage of companies looking to take on new managerial and professional staff over the next few months is also expected to remain in the fifties – decreasing by just 2% to 56%. On the other side, the level of Russian jobs being cut continues to drop in this quarter’s snapshot to 31%. The number of businesses looking to shed staff in the near future is set to continue in this downward trend, representing an on-going, positive outlook for those in Russian employment.

TurkeyAfter a six month boom of hiring activity in Turkey, recruitment levels have finally fallen again, as was predicted in December’s Snapshot. Somewhat surprisingly, though, this has been to a greater degree than expected, with the number of Turkish companies taking on new staff dropping from 74% to just 41%. Turkish job cut rates stand at 31% at present, increasing 3% over the last few months. Fortunately, however, this indicates that despite Turkish companies’ lack of expansion this quarter, most of the staff that was employed during the recruitment boom has remained secure in their jobs.

IsraelIn this quarter’s Snapshot, Israel’s employment market continues to be noticeably active, despite December’s edition predicting hiring levels were set to fall to 44%. Instead, the percentage of companies in Israel undergoing recruitment has remained in the fifties. This is set to drop below the half - way mark in the coming quarter- though whether this actually happens is yet to be seen. Israel’s firing rates have also grown over the last three months to 43%, but to a lesser extent than hiring has dropped. This indicates more managerial / professional employees are retaining their jobs.



BahrainBahrain’s recruitment levels have stayed fairly steady over the last few months. The percentage of companies hiring staff lies at 53% at present - 1% more than in December’s Snapshot. This modest, yet positive trend for employment has been predicted to continue for the coming quarter, with 55% of Bahrain’s companies looking to hire at a managerial level over the next three months. In terms of job loss rates in Bahrain this quarter, the number of businesses shedding staff, or looking to do so soon, has increased quite markedly as expected - from 35% to 47%. This should level out as the year progresses, however, and remain at a high but steady 47%.

KuwaitAt 60%, the percentage of companies hiring at a managerial / professional level in Kuwait has risen by 7% this quarter - 1% more than predicted three months ago. On the other side, the level of job losses has also increased during this time by 3% to 32% and is set to remain the same for the coming quarter. Since this rise in firing activity stands below that for recruitment, however, it seems Kuwait’s job market has expanded in 2012. The number of companies hiring new staff within the next few months is expected to decrease to 49%, but whether this occurs is yet to be confirmed.

OmanDespite December’s prediction that Oman’s recruitment activity would fall this quarter, the percentage of companies hiring at a managerial / professional level has increased by 4% to 74% - one of the highest for the region. Job losses have also plummeted in this time from 26% to just 12%, indicating a high degree of employment stability for those working in Oman. Over the next few months, the number of businesses looking to shed managerial staff is expected to grow somewhat to 17%, but this will still leave Oman with the lowest rates for job loss in the region.



QatarThis March, Qatar again boasts the highest rates of employment for the region and the second highest in the world. The number of companies recruiting new staff has remained at 77% over the last six months, in line with the country’s ‘2030 Vision.’ Hiring levels are expected to fall over the coming quarter but remain at a respectable 65%. Firing rates have been less stable since December - rising from just 14% to 22%. This trend is set to continue for the near future, but to a lesser extent with job cuts reaching 25%.

Saudi ArabiaFollowing a significant recruitment boom, hiring activity in Saudi Arabia has dropped quite considerably this quarter from 73% to 57%. Things are expected to take a turn for the better over the coming few months, however, with the percentage of companies hiring rising again to a respectable 64%. On the other side of the job market, firing activity has increased as expected from a record low of 10% to 19%. Given the current drop in recruitment activity in Saudi Arabia though, this modest increase indicates many of the staff hired in the boom is retaining their positions and the Saudi Arabian job market is rightsizing.

United Arab EmiratesHiring activity in the United Arab Emirates has fallen by 13% this quarter. Yet at 49%, this figure still remains higher than this time last year. The employment market is also set to recover over the coming months, with recruitment rates growing to 54%. In terms of job loss rates, the percentage of businesses in the United Arab Emirates downsizing staff numbers has stayed at one of the lowest for the region-just 14%. The coming few months will see firing activity remain at this consistently low value, signalling a good degree of job stability for this country.



AlgeriaThe percentage of Algerian companies hiring managerial and professional staff is quite low in relation to its fellow African countries. At present, Algerian recruitment rates stand at 45% and are expected to lower modestly to 40% over the next three months. At 49%, the level of job cuts is also relatively high within the Algerian job market compared to some of the surrounding areas. Things are set to improve for the coming quarter, however, with the number of Algerian businesses looking to shed employees taking a downward turn towards 43%.

AngolaWith hiring rates currently standing at 49%, Angola’s job market is not as active as some of the neighbouring countries. Over the next few months, this figure will fall slightly but remain above 40%. On the other side of Angola’s employment market, there is a relatively high degree of turnover occurring at present. 41% of companies are looking to cut managerial / professional positions this quarter and 46% are predicting they will do so over the next three months. Whether this occurs in practice, however, is yet to be confirmed.

EgyptIn spite of the on-going political unrest, the Egyptian job market is faring relatively well. The percentage of companies hiring at a managerial and professional level has fallen from December’s high of 64% to 55% this quarter. However, the rate of job cuts has also dropped to a greater extent from 34% to 23%, indicating more employees are keeping their jobs. The next few months should bring continued stability for the Egyptian employment market as well with both hiring and firing levels varying by just 1% - a notable achievement given the current political instability of this country.



GhanaHiring activity in Ghana has increased by 9% for this quarter’s Snapshot to 55%. This value is set to remain steady for the next few months, after a year of somewhat dramatic fluctuations. The percentage of Ghana’s businesses shedding staff at the start of 2012 has risen to a higher degree than expected - from 23% to 41%, indicating a high level of turnover within Ghana’s job market. Over the coming quarter job cuts have been predicted to increase further, but to a more modest extent than for this March’s Snapshot.

NigeriaAfter the significant recruitment boom in Nigeria back in December, the percentage of companies hiring new staff has fallen quite substantially from 73% to 44%. The next quarter should see Nigeria’s job market recover well, however, with 56% of businesses expecting to recruit during the next three months - one of the highest rates for Africa. As predicted, job losses in Nigeria have gone up from 27% to 32% over this quarter and are expected to reach 40% in the near future. Nevertheless, recruitment does remain the more active field, indicating more Nigerian employees are keeping their jobs after the boom.

South AfricaThough the level of South African companies recruiting new staff has reduced by 15% this quarter to 53%, firing rates for this country are the lowest for Africa - at 19%. The following three months are expected to bring more good news with both hiring rates increasing to 59% and firing rates falling in parallel to a modest 15%. This indicates the South African employment market is set to grow as the year progresses.


UK Sector ComparisonIntroductionIt has been argued and considered as to how the UK’s Industry Sectors perform in terms of Recruiting Patterns. Montague Consult has therefore put together a study research to learn this information. The information provided in this document has been gained through studying the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey and Antal International Global Snapshot.

The figures are representative samples of 2,102 employers across the UK. We have collated the information to include the following Industry Sectors:• Agriculture• Community & Social• Construction• Finance & Business Services• Hotels & Retails• Manufacturing• Mining• Transport & Communications• Utilities

We have managed to analyse and utilise information from Quarter 4 2006 through to Quarter 3 2012. The information provided also includes seasonal variations. Collectively, this will hopefully provide a useful piece of information which demonstrates the fluctuating pattern in recruitment requirements throughout the UK’s industry sectors.


UK Sector Comparison Cont.Data AnalysisThe data have shown that of the Industry Sectors identified and between the periods of Q4 2006through to and including Q3 2012, the Utilities Sector was an overwhelming top performer in termsof consistent hiring patterns throughout the period with an average score of 10%. However, theHotels & Retail Sector also performed well throughout this period and coming in at a close secondposition to the Utilities Sector with an average score of 9%.

Some distance behind the Utilities Sector and Hotels & Retail Sector is the Mining Sector, which Ihave to admit did provide something of a surprise to me with an average score of 7% coming aheadof the Manufacturing sector which managed to achieve an average score of 4%. The ManufacturingSector did hold its own with a considerable gap between them and the Community & Social Sectorwhich achieved an average score of 3%; also managing to outperform the Transport &Communication Sector, although only just. The Transport & Communication Sector managed toachieve an average score of 2%.

The Agriculture Sector which with all factors considered still has maintained a high performancelevel, scoring and average of 1%. The Finance & Business Service Sector has been hit hard over thisperiod only managing an average score of 0% and coming in almost last place. Last positionhowever, has been reserved for the Construction Sector which although has been hit the hardest ofall the Industry Sectors, with all economic factors considered, has still managed to do perform ratherwell with an average score of -2%.


UK Sector Comparison Cont.Agriculture Community

& Social Construction Hotels & Retail

Finance & Business Services

Manufacturing Mining Transport & Communication Utilities

Q4 2006 1% 7% 2% 23% 5% 10% 21% 16% 17%

Q1 2007 3% 9% 13% 27% 3% 7% 18% 13% 21%

Q2 2007 8% 8% 14% 19% 13% 14% 15% 13% 17%

Q3 2007 7% 9% 8% 21% 16% 14% 31% 5% 26%

Q4 2007 0% 11% 9% 23% 6% 10% 15% 14% 2%

Q1 2008 0% 11% -5% 11% 1% 12% -2% 10% 17%

Q2 2008 1% 9% 1% 7% 5% 8% 23% 0% 12%

Q3 2008 9% 7% 8% 12% 4% 7% 9% 3% 4%

Q4 2008 -2% 2% 10% 0% -3% 3% -4% 3% 9%

Q1 2009 3% 3% -23% -4% -8% -6% 3% -7% 8%

Q2 2009 7% 0% -16% -7% -7% -7% -5% -4% 4%

Q3 2009 1% 1% -6% -4% -7% -5% -1% -5% 9%

Q4 2009 -2% 2% -3% 4% -5% -4% -9% -9% 4%


UK Sector Comparison Cont.Agriculture Community

& Social Construction Hotels & Retail



Q1 2010 -3% -1% -13% 8% -4% -4% 1% -9% 6%

Q2 2010 1% 0% -1% 5% -2% 2% 0% -7% 4%

Q3 2010 4% -1% -2% 6% 1% 4% 2% 0% 8%

Q4 2010 -4% -3% -6% 12% -1% 5% 6% 1% 7%

Q1 2011 -8% 0% -8% 9% -8% -1% 2% 5% 7%

Q2 2011 -2% -5% 3% 15% -5% -1% 6% 2% 5%

Q3 2011 4% 0% -7% 9% 3% 10% 10% 6% 5%

Q4 2011 2% 5% -8% 7% -3% 5% 3% 7% 11%

Q1 2012 -2% -1% -3% -1% -4% 2% 9% -6% 14%

Q2 2012 7% 3% -8% 5% 1% 1% 8% 5% 13%

Q3 2012 -2% -4% -10% 13% 1% 7% 5% 2% 16%


UK Sector Comparison Cont.

Q4 2006

Q4 2007

Q4 2008

Q4 2009

Q4 2010

Q4 2011

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Agriculture Community & SocialConstruction Hotels & RetailFinance & Business Services

Manufacturing

Mining Transport & Communica-tion

Utilities


UK Sector Comparison 2007

Agriculture Community & Social Construction Hotels &

RetailFinance & Business Services


Q1 20073% 9% 13% 27% 3% 7% 18% 13% 21%

Q2 20078% 8% 14% 19% 13% 14% 15% 13% 17%

Q3 20077% 9% 8% 21% 16% 14% 31% 5% 26%

Q4 20070% 11% 9% 23% 6% 10% 15% 14% 2%


UK Sector Comparison 2007 Cont.

Agricu

lture

Community &

Socia

l

Constructi

on

Hotels &

Retail

Finan

ce & Busin

ess Se

rvices

Manufac

turing

Mining

Transp

ort & Communica

tion

Utilities

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2007






Q1 20080% 11% -5% 11% 1% 12% -2% 10% 17%

Q2 20081% 9% 1% 7% 5% 8% 23% 0% 12%

Q3 20089% 7% 8% 12% 4% 7% 9% 3% 4%

Q4 2008-2% 2% 10% 0% -3% 3% -4% 3% 9%



Agricu

lture

Community &

Socia

l

Constructi

on

Hotels &

Retail

Finan

ce & Busin

ess Se

rvices

Manufac

turing

Mining

Transp

ort & Communica

tion

Utilities

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2008






Q1 20093% 3% -23% -4% -8% -6% 3% -7% 8%

Q2 20097% 0% -16% -7% -7% -7% -5% -4% 4%

Q3 20091% 1% -6% -4% -7% -5% -1% -5% 9%

Q4 2009-2% 2% -3% 4% -5% -4% -9% -9% 4%



Agricu

lture

Community &

Socia

l

Constructi

on

Hotels &

Retail

Finan

ce & Busin

ess Se

rvices

Manufac

turing

Mining

Transp

ort & Communica

tion

Utilities

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2009






Q1 2010-3% -1% -13% 8% -4% -4% 1% -9% 6%

Q2 20101% 0% -1% 5% -2% 2% 0% -7% 4%

Q3 20104% -1% -2% 6% 1% 4% 2% 0% 8%

Q4 2010-4% -3% -6% 12% -1% 5% 6% 1% 7%



Agricu

lture

Community &

Socia

l

Constructi

on

Hotels &

Retail

Finan

ce & Busin

ess Se

rvices

Manufac

turing

Mining

Transp

ort & Communica

tion

Utilities

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2010



Agriculture

Community & Social

Construction

Hotels & Retail


Manufacturing

Mining

Transport & Communication

Utilities

Q1 2011 -0.08 0 -0.08 0.09 -0.08 -0.01 0.02 0.05 0.07

Q2 2011 -0.02 -0.05 0.03 0.15 -0.05 -0.01 0.06 0.02 0.05

Q3 2011 0.04 0 -0.07 0.09 0.03 0.1 0.1 0.06 0.05

Q4 2011 0.02 0.05 -0.08 0.07 -0.03 0.05 0.03 0.07 0.11



Agricu

lture

Community &

Socia

l

Constructi

on

Hotels &

Retail

Finan

ce & Busin

ess Se

rvices

Manufac

turing

Mining

Transp

ort & Communica

tion

Utilities

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2011


ConclusionThe information and data gained certainly shows that even through some very tenuous times full of economic hardship and uncertainties, the Global Recruitment Market has actually remained quite buoyant demonstrated by a 3% increase in global turnover year on year. I think we can all also agree that some Countries have provided some pleasant surprises in their productivity levels throughout these turbulent times. Despite grave economic performances, the Recruitment Industry remains one of the largest and consistent contributors to the GDP of their host Country. With results from the various Industry Sectors showing between 10% at best and -2% on the other end of the scale, and including the number of Industry Sectors included, I think we can agree that there is fact no one single Industry Sector which out performs others. There is however a fluctuating pattern between them all, perhaps with an exception of Construction which has performed quite badly over this period. However, caution must be adopted as all figures demonstrated within this document are covering a very difficult economic period, one which has not been encountered since the fifties.

Montague Consult will of course continue to monitor this information and make it publically available on a quarterly basis. Feel free to contact Montague Consult or visit us at

www.montagueconsult.co.uk

http://www.montagueconsult.co.uk/

Montague Consult Global Recruitment Survey Q3 2012

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Transcript of Montague Consult Global Recruitment Survey Q3 2012