monsanto 09-16-08b

16
1 TERRY CREWS CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER BANK OF AMERICA 38th Annual Investment Conference Sept. 16, 2008

description

 

Transcript of monsanto 09-16-08b

  • 1. TERRY CREWS CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER BANK OF AMERICA 38th Annual Investment ConferenceSept. 16, 20081

2. Forward-Looking StatementsCertain statements contained in this presentation are quot;forward-looking statements,quot; such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts. These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company's actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: continued competition in seeds, traits and agricultural chemicals; the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to intellectual property protection, regulatory compliance and the speed with which approvals are received, and public acceptance of biotechnology products; the success of the company's research and development activities; the outcomes of major lawsuits; developments related to foreign currencies and economies; successful operation of recent acquisitions; fluctuations in commodity prices; compliance with regulations affecting our manufacturing; the accuracy of the company's estimates related to distribution inventory levels; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs and to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the effect of weather conditions, natural disasters and accidents on the agriculture business or the company's facilities; and other risks and factors detailed in the company's most recent reports on forms 10-Q and 10-K. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward- looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this presentation. The company disclaims any current intention or obligation to update any forward-looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results.Trademarks Trademarks owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries are italicized in this presentation. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. 2008 Monsanto Company2 3. OVERVIEWMonsantos Growth Opportunity Lies at the Intersection of Demand, Innovation and ExecutionMonsantos Simple Philosophy on Opportunity: More demand requires more YIELD More yield requires more INNOVATION More innovation delivers more GROWTH3 4. OVERVIEW Wrap-Up to Exceptional 2008 Demonstrates Strength in Core Business and Outlook on Continued Growth Through 2012 2012 GROSS PROFIT TARGETRELATIVE TO 2007 BASELINEGROSS PROFIT OUTLOOK BY SEGMENT>2x Total Gross Profit 2007-2012FBUSINESS DETAILRoundup and OtherAll Other Agricultural Productivity $10,000 Glyphosate-Based ~$1.8BRoundup and Other Glyphosate-based Herbicides HerbicidesSeeds & Genomics$8,000 All Other Ag Productivity Roughly flatat $350M$6,000>2x Seeds & Genomics$4,0002.5xCorn Seeds & TraitsGROWTH COMES FROM~2xSoybean Seeds &SEEDS &$2,000 TRAITS Traits~2x Cotton Seeds & Traits $020072008F 2012F >2x 20072008F 2012FVegetable Seeds2008 Seeds & Genomics to be ~$3.8B,up from prior $3.7B guidance 4 5. OVERVIEW Gross Profit Growth Comes From Two-Step Strategy: Establish Seed Footprint, Then Layer on Biotech TraitsBREEDING BIOTECHTRAIT 3R&DTRAIT 2 SEED ENGINETRAIT 1 SEED Establish Seed Footprint Add Biotech Traits Seed provides a core gross-profit Higher margins than seed withcontribution minimal incremental cost of goods STRATEGIC VALUE Seed footprint speeds penetration Opportunity to stack multiple traitsrate of biotech traits per acre Access to global germplasm Proven, commercial-driven R&Dpools combined with most program backed by industrys DIFFERENTIATORS advanced breeding technology largest seed-and-trait R&D spendcreates seed that outperforms Collaborator of choicecompetitors New trait introductions MEASURES OF SUCCESS Seed share growth Trait upgrade and trait platform opportunityCorn: U.S., Argentina, Brazil,Europe, Central AmericaCorn: U.S., Argentina, BrazilSoybeans: U.S. KEY CROPS & GEOGRAPHIES Soybeans: U.S., BrazilCotton: U.S., IndiaCotton: U.S., India, AustraliaVegetables: Global 5 6. CORN SEEDS & TRAITSCorn Gross Profit to Expand 25-30% in 2009, ReflectingContinuing Momentum in Seed Share and Trait PenetrationCORN SEEDS AND TRAITS:KEY FINANCIAL METRICS AND DRIVERS 2005-2008F CORNFINANCIAL OUTLOOK $3,500 64%Gross Profit as Percent of Sales For 2009, Corn Seeds &>$3.5B $3,000 62% Traits gross profit is forecast to be up 25-30% $2,500 60% Absolute gross profit is $1,000s increased by growing seed $2,000 58% >$2.1Bshare, increasing trait$1,721 $1,500 56% penetration and increasing prices $1,000 54%$1,019 Margin increases by$825$50052%increasing mix toward traits 2009 DRIVERS$050%2005200620072008F Increasing triple-stack penetration in U.S. combinedNet Sales Gross ProfitGross Profit as Percent of Sales with stronger trait pricing Launch of new traits in Argentina and Brazil 6 7. CORN SEEDS & TRAITS U.S. DEKALB Share Consistently Ahead of Expectations; Growth Trend Continues in 2009 DEKALB U.S. CORN SHARE EVOLUTION: CORN2001-2009F FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Three years of growth since 28%2005 have outpaced averageGROW 26%target each year2%+>25% 24% 2009: Trend continues withearly commitment for 23% 22%accelerated growth in 20%DEKALB and ASI2009 DRIVERS 19%TARGET 18% 2+U.S. DEKALB Share 16% 2005 PROJECTED 16% +1 AVERAGE GROWTH U.S. ASI Share 14% TREND14% TRAIT TARGETS 13% 12%U.S. Triple-Stack10%12% 34-35M Penetration 10%2001 20022003 2004 200520062007 2008F 2009F1.4 1.5 1.71.92.2>2.4~2.5 DEKALB Trait Penetration Trend: 2003-2009FAverage Number of Traits Per Acre in DEKALB Seed11. Trait intensity reflects the average number of traits per acre with at least one trait 7 8. CORN SEEDS & TRAITSLarger Seed Footprints in South America Enable Larger Launches and Faster Ramp Up Than CompetitionLATIN AMERICAN CORN LATIN AMERICA NORTH OUTLOOK:CURRENT5-YEAR OUTLOOK#1 position in all key SEED & TRAIT TRENDS THROUGH 2012 SEED SHARE: countries 7-8M MEXICOHYBRID ACRES:In approval stage BIOTECH STATUS: HONDURAS GUATEMALA Integration of Cristiani; Expand seed footprint forFY2009 PRIORITIES: EL SALVADOR pending trait introductionsCOLOMBIA BRAZILCURRENT5-YEAR OUTLOOK40% (#1 position) SEED SHARE: BRAZILPERU27MHYBRID ACRES: 1st commercial trait inBIOTECH FY2009STATUS: Targeted share gain: 1-2 points FY2009 PRIORITIES: 1-2M acre launch of YieldGard Corn Borer ARGENTINAARGENTINA CURRENT 5-YEAR OUTLOOK 45% (#1 position) SEED SHARE:10M HYBRID ACRES: Commercial planting BIOTECH STATUS: Targeted share gain: 1-2 pointsFY2009 PRIORITIES: 1-2M acre launch of YieldGard Corn Borer with Roundup Ready Corn 2 stack8 9. SOYBEAN SEEDS & TRAITS Soybean Seeds and Traits Poised for Renaissance Driven ByRoundup Ready 2 Yield OpportunitySOYBEAN SEEDS AND TRAITS: KEY FINANCIAL METRICS AND DRIVERS 2005-2008FSOYBEANSFINANCIAL OUTLOOK $1,200 70%Gross Profit as Percent of Sales>$1.1B For 2009, Soybean Seeds &60% Traits gross profit is forecast $1,000 to be up ~5%50%$800 Performance more subject to $1,000s40%planted acres because of >$700M$667$600 significant trait penetration$613 $58830% In 2009, lower acres and$400 higher production cost for20% seed still prominent$20010% Beyond 2009, Roundup Ready 2 Yield creates new margin$00% opportunity as acres expand20052006 20072008F 2009 DRIVERSNet Sales Gross Profit Gross Profit as Percent of Sales Focus on 1-2M acre controlled commercial release of Roundup Ready 2 Yield 9 10. SOYBEAN SEEDS & TRAITSRoundup Ready 2 Yield Soybeans Is One Of the Most- Anticipated Launches Because of Step-Change In YieldROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD SOYBEANS:SECOND-GENERATION WEED CONTROL OPPORTUNITYU.S. SOYBEANS Near-Isoline Comparisons: Roundup Ready 2 Yield vs. Roundup Ready 2007 U.S. AVERAGE41.6 bu YIELD PER ACRE: % Yield Increase over Roundup Ready 12% ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD TARGETED YIELD 7-11%11% 10%IMPROVEMENT: 9%9% 8% VALUE PROPOSITION7%7% 6%YIELD 3-5 bu/acIMPROVEMENT ON AVERAGE YIELDS: 4% INCREMENTALYIELD VALUE TO$35-$65/acre FARMER (VERSUSROUNDUP READY): 2% PRICING SEAMLESS PRICE 0% $69-$72 FOR ROUNDUP4 YEAR READY 2 YIELD2004 20052006 2007SEED (PER ACRE)1: AVERAGE SEAMLESS PRICE FOR FIRST- Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybeans yield 7 to 11 percent GENERATION $49-$52 higher than Roundup Ready soybeans based on 73ROUNDUP READYSEED (PER ACRE)1: Monsanto field trials from 2004-20071. Reflects seamless pricing to farmer, including trait value, germplasm value and value provided by seed treatment10 11. COTTON SEEDS & TRAITSContinued Application of New Technology Critical to Increasingly Global Opportunity in CottonGLOBAL COTTON SEED AND TRAITS GROSS PROFITCOTTON INDEX=2007 FINANCIAL OUTLOOK 2012F 2007 With Delta & Pine Landacquisition, lower-marginseed is greater portion ofproduct mix softeningmargins Corn and soybeans havedisplaced cotton in Deltapinebrands core U.S. geographies ~2X 2009 DRIVERS Re-establish U.S. shareOVER 2007 INDEXgrowth, promote second-genU.S Cotton Seeds & TraitsGross Profitpenetration in U.S. and IndiaInternational Cotton Seeds& Traits Gross Profit11 12. VEGETABLE SEEDSVegetable Core Platforms Are Established, Focusing on Execution and Growth To Become $1B Business by 2012$1,200VEGETABLES >$1B $1,000 FINANCIAL OUTLOOK >$1B $1,000s$800 By 2012, Vegetable business$600>$650M>$650Mroughly equates to todayssoybean business currently$400Monsantos second-largest$200seed-and-trait segment Sales growth continues in$0 NETGROSSNETGROSSmid-single digits; MarginSALES PROFITSALES PROFITgrows through pricing, newVegetable Platform: Soybean Platform:products and increase of2012F2008Fprotected-culture businessRANK ORDER GROSS PROFITWhen acquired in 2005, GENERATORS: 2012F2009 DRIVERSSeminis annual gross- Corn Seeds & Traits Focus on operation andprofit contribution wasexecution of 3-channel Soybean Seeds & Traitsamong lowest in Seeds &approach: Seminis open-field,Genomics; Vegetable Seeds DeRuiter protected-culture,By 2012, Vegetable Seedsand ISG regional brands Cotton Seeds & Traits will be third-largest seed-and-trait platform All Other Seeds & Traits12 13. R&D PLATFORM R&D Engine Is Poised to Launch Average of One Game-Changing Technology Every Other Year Through Mid-Decade R&D PIPELINE: ADVANCED GAME-CHANGING TECHNOLOGIES 2008 2009 20102011 2012 TO MID-DECADE Roundup Drought- Nitrogen- SmartStaxReady 2 Yield Tolerant CornUtilizationSoybeansFamily1Corn Family1 Second-gen soybean All-in-one corn trait Value likely in improved Targets ways to use trait platform platformyield under stress and nitrogen more efficientlypotential for water Just received China On track for 2010 launchreplacement import approval on Submitted for track for 2009 release regulatory review andrefuge reduction SUPERIOR, NE - FIELD TRIALS 2007FARM PROGRESS SHOW 2007WITH GENE CONTROL HYBRID FARM PROGRESS SHOW 2007(94 BU/AC)(76 BU/AC) 1. Part of the Monsanto-BASF Yield and Stress R&D Collaboration13 14. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCEOn Track in 2008, Growth Drivers Continue to Set Stage for Growth Through 2012GROSS PROFIT OUTLOOK BY SEGMENT 2007-2012F $10,000 TOTAL GROSS All Other Agricultural ProductivityPROFIT GROWS Roundup and Other Glyphosate-based Herbicides TO >2X $8,000 2007 BASELINE Seeds & Genomics $6,000$4,0002008 SEEDS & GENOMICS $2,000EXPECTED TO GENERATE $3.8B $0 20072008F2009F2010F 2011F 2012F U.S. Corn Intl Corn Cotton Vegetables R&D Pipeline Soybeans Expand seed Establish and Prepare for Accelerate U.S. Reinvigorate Largest-ever footprintexpand seedcommercial traits and marginsR&D fieldfootprintlaunch ofbreedingeffort Drive trait DeRuiter Roundup penetration Drive trait Drive intl traits integration Ready 2 Yieldpenetration SmartStaxAccelerated traitRoundup ReadyGlobalized$1B Vegetable Game-ChangingPlatform platform2 Yield Platform Cotton Platform PlatformLaunches 15. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCEStrong Cash Position Allows Monsanto To Return Value To Shareowners and Extend Its Competitive LeadUSES OF CASH PERCENT OF CASH USED BY CATEGORY: 2008FCash Generation 13% Strong business performance and cash generation allows Monsanto to40%invest to extend its competitive lead15%CASH PRIORITIES Bolster direct returns to shareowners Support commercial growth through capital spending Invest in future growth through R&D 32% Expand the core through strategic acquisitions Acquisitions and Technology CollaborationsCapital Spending Dividends Share Repurchase 15 16. SUMMARYMonsantos Growth Opportunity Lies at the Intersection of Demand, Innovation and ExecutionMonsantos Simple Philosophy on Opportunity: More demand requires more YIELD More yield requires more INNOVATION More innovation delivers more GROWTH16