"MONITORING SHORT-RUN CHANINPURCHASING BEHAVIOUR'

by

Darius SABAVALA*and

Vikas TIBREWALA**

N° 91/20/MKT

* New York University, Stern Schools of Business, 90 Trinity Place, New York, New York 100006,U.S.A..

* * Assistant Professor of Marketing, INSEAD, Boulevard de Constance, Fontainebleau 77305 Cedex,France.

Printed at INSEAD,Fontainebleau, France.

MONITORING SHORT-RUN CHANGES IN PURCHASING BEHAVIOR

Darius J. SabavalaNew York University

Stern Schools of Business90 Trinity Place

New York, New York 10006USA.

Vikas TibrewalaINSEAD

Boulevard de Constance77305 Fontainebleau Cedex

FRANCE.

March 1991

The authors thank Avijit Ghosh, Donald G. Morrison and Ambar G. Rao for their helpulcomments, and Tod Johnson of NPD Inc. for providing the data.

MONITORING SHORT-RUN CHANGES IN PURCHASING BEHAVIOR

ABSTRACT

On-going monitoring of customer purchases requires the estimation of baselines, deviations from

which can yield information about the effects of marketing activities. These baselines can be used

over time in a control-chart-like fashion to identify significant deviations which may then be

related to the level of different marketing activities, like promotions. We apply this procedure to

purchase data for two categories, using the negative binomial model as a baseline estimator, to

identify deviations and assess the response in purchase frequency and purchase quantity to

promotions at the product and brand levels.

O1 2 3 4 5

Figure 1: Illustrative Example of Sales Tracking. promotion effort over time (top panel) andproportional deviations from baseline for non-buyers, light buyers and heavy buyers (bottompanel).

Chance in %Deal over lime

1 2 3 4 5

Non-buyer response over lime

2 3 541

Liohl . buyef response over lime

2 3 c51

Heavy-buyer response over time

0

4110

00

MONITORING SHORT-RUN CHANGES IN PURCHASING BEHAVIOR

Estimates of baseline sales are essential for assessing response to marketing efforts. The

baseline estimates reflect the expected sales levels in the absence of changes from the normal level

of marketing activities. Baseline estimates derived from a model using consumer panel data permit

the use of a control-chart-like procedure to identify deviations which require further examination.

In this paper we use the well-known negative binomial model for ongoing monitoring of product

and brand level purchases over consecutive, short time periods for buyers grouped by previous

purchase levels. Any deviations which occur are then related to changes in levels of marketing

activities, like promotions, to form an exploratory response model.

To illustrate, consider a product which engages in some promotional activity over time, as

shown in Figure 1 (top panel). We seek to develop baseline estimates to which actual purchases

can then be compared. In the lower panel of Figure 1, we show proportional deviations of the

actual from the baseline (ratio of actual/baseline), separately for non-buyers, light buyers, and

heavy buyers. In each period, the baseline estimate is formed using the previous period's behavior,

and therefore the baseline may vary over time. It appears that the promotional activity of periods 3

and 4, and to a lesser extent period 5, had little or no effect on non-buyers and light buyers. Heavy

buyers responded to the activity in period 3, but the increased level did not persist over periods 4

and 5.

As electronic data gathering yields more consumer level data more rapidly than in the past,

ongoing monitoring of purchasing activity is increasingly important (Schmitz, Abraham and Little

1990). On the other hand, the complexity of the environment and the correspondingly complex

traditional models of sales response are (arguably) more difficult to develop and apply for ongoing

monitoring. An alternative approach is to use a simple model that can capture essential aspects of

short-run purchasing activities.

We use the negative binomial distribution (NBD) model, which is known to be robust,

simple to estimate and easy to use. In addition, the NBD explicitly captures consumer

heterogeneity, a substantial feature of most markets. As Morrison and Schmittlein (1988, page

145) write, "NBD forecasts for future purchasing patterns are often very accurate. Even though

there are no marketing variables in the NBD model, NBD benchmarks can be used very effectively

to evaluate certain marketing activities." In this paper, we follow their suggestion and take it

further in exploring the nature of response. It should be noted that the NBD model, over the many

years since its application to purchasing behavior by Ehrenberg (1959), has not become a natural

part of the marketing manager's analytical tool kit. Morrison and Schmittlein (1988, page 156)

note that "... very few marketing practitioners appear to he using Period 2 conditional expectations

to analyze sales fluctuations." Sabavala (1988), in a brief comment on Morrison and Schmittlein

(1988), suggests reasons why the NBD is infrequently used. In this paper, we explicitly confront

some of these -- how to define the baseline period, persistent tracking, and the creative use of

known and emerging data analysis techniques.

2

Further, most published studies ( e.g. Morrison and Schmittlein 1981, Chatfield and

Goodhardt 1973, Schmittlein, Bemmaor and Morrison 1985) have concentrated on the

development of the properties of the NBD model, with the empirical analysis being used to

illustrate and test the model. The extensive NBD research of Ehrenberg and his colleagues reported

in Ehrenberg (1988) is an important exception, but he restricts his analysis to model predictions

over two time periods and not as an on-going process of monitoring marketing activities. Driven

by the goals of ongoing monitoring and short-run response assessment, we make repeated use of

the NBD over several periods. A 'good' benchmark should yield deviations that are small in the

absence of unusual marketing activities. Larger deviations may be related to marketing efforts that

are effective in altering purchasing behavior. Our objective is to identify these deviations and

relate them to marketing activities.

In our empirical analysis, the primary marketing activity for which data are available is

promotion. A number of recent articles in the marketing literature and the press have addressed the

growing importance of promotions in the marketing mix (e.g. Blattberg and Neslin 1989, Konrad

1990). Abraham and Lodish (1987) and Blattberg and Neslin (1989) stress that analysis of the

market response to these activities is crucially dependent upon establishing an accurate baseline_

The literature also indicates the importance of identifying the source of the incremental business.

The illustrative example above shows how the source of response to the promotion may be

attributed to buyers segmented by their previous purchasing levels. In the context of promotion

analysis, we need to consider brand and product category response, as well as response in purchase

volume.

The initial results we report here show that the NBD model indeed has potential as an

effective benchmark against which to evaluate changes in purchase behavior caused by marketing

activities, and should be used as such by marketing practitioners. The model predictions arc very

accurate in most situations where we observe 'normal', even considerable, levels of marketing

activity. Clearly, marketing efforts which arc unusually effective will then result in more

3

substantial deviations. In our empirical analysis we find little systematic response in consumer

purchasing frequency or quantity to promotions, either at the category level or at the brand level.

Further, the simplicity of the NBD approach to baseline estimation enables a constant short-run

updating that is an effective way to monitor sales and flag deviations that need further analysis.

In the next section we describe the model used to estimate the baseline, the design of our

analysis, and the data used in the study. The following section provides the results of our analysis

at the category level for two products, and at the brand level for the leading brand in one category.

We conclude with a discussion of our findings and directions for further research.

ANALYSIS OVERVIEW

Problem Setting

The basic problem we address is to estimate a baseline for period (t+1) purchases

conditional upon period t purchases for t=1,2,..,T. The choice of a short time period with which to

estimate the baseline is intended to minimize the effects of trends, seasonality and non-stationarity

in the consumers' underlying purchase rates. We examine the number of purchase occasions, X,

and the total purchase quantity, W, since short-run effects of marketing activities may be reflected

in either.

The idea of conditional trend analysis is to predict [Xt+1 1Xt=xt] using the conditional

expectation, [Xt+i iXt=xt], based on some model of purchasing behavior. Discrepancies between

the predicted conditional expectations and the actual outcomes are then attributed to changes in

conditions between periods (t+1) and t. The conditions that we are particularly interested in are the

levels of marketing effort in periods t and t+1, say M t and M I4.1 respectively. We measure response

proportional to the baseline, and thereby identify the relation between {[X 1+1 IXt=x1]

[Xt+11 X 1 =xt]} and {Mt+i /Mi }, for t=1,2,..,T, and for xt=0,1,..,max(Xt). We are similarly interested

in the corresponding responses in purchase quantity, W, since the performance measures of a brand

depend directly upon sales volume.

4

Model

The NBD model, first used in marketing applications by Ehrenberg (1959), assumes that

individual purchase frequencies follow a Poisson distribution with rate X, and that the

heterogeneity in these rates is captured by a gamma distribution with shape parameter r and scale

parameter a. The NBD model corresponding to these assumptions is:

PNBD(X=xlr,a) (r(r+x)/r(r)x!) (1/(a+1)) x (a/(a+1))r

The mean of the NBD is r/a, and the variance is (r/a + r/a2). For a recent review of the NBD

model and some of its properties, see Morrison and Schmittlein (1988). If we assume stationarity in

the X's over time, then, as shown by Goodhardt and Ehrenberg (1967), the NBD can be used to

make conditional predictions. In particular, if Xt is distributed NBD with parameters r and a. then

(Xt+ilXt=xt) is distributed NBD with parameters r+x t and a+1. As a result, the conditional

expectation of (Xt+1 1Xt=xt) is simply (r+xt)/(a+1).

To make conditional predictions of the quantity purchased in period H-1,

[Wt+il

NBD and that the average quantity per purchase in period t+1 is the same as that in period t. Thus,A

the predicted quantity is {[Xt.0. 1Xt=xt]*wt/xt }. For those who made x t=0 purchases, we used the

overall average quantity per purchase. The purchase quantity depends both on the size and the

number of units. Some empirical support for persistence in the size bought across different

occasions may be inferred from the strong size loyalty effects observed in Guadagni and Little

(1983). Further, we believe that the assumption of constant purchase quantity and, implicitly, the

assumption of an average consumption rate is reasonable for estimating a baseline.

Data and Analysis Design

The data come from a consumer diary panel run by NPD Inc. consisting of 3003

households' purchases of two product categories, cereals and facial tissues, over one year.

Wt=wt,Xt=xt], we assume that an individual's expected number of purchases in period t+1 is

5

500 10 20 30 40

en

0

0o;0

FIGURE 2: Variations Over Time in the Average Number of Purchases (solid line), and theProportion of "On-Deal" Purchase Occasions (dotted line).

CEREALS

FACIAL TISSUES

Weeks Weeks

Households which had made no purchases within the category for the entire year were dropped,

leaving 2901 households for cereals and 2673 households for facial tissues. Our main motivation

for dropping these households is that an observation period of 1 year increases our ability to

identify the non-stochastic never-buyers who might otherwise cause a "spike-at-zero" in the NBD

predictions (Morrison 1969, 1989). W is measured in ounces for cereals, and in number of sheets

for facial tissues, being the appropriate units of sales volume in these categories.

We performed the analyses at the category level for both cereals and facial tissues and at

the brand level for the leading cereal brand. A major decision to be made for conditional trend

analysis is the time unit defining the estimation and prediction periods. The time period needs to be

short enough so as to retain stationarity in the purchase rates and have stability in the market

environment, and yet long enough to preserve the independence between successive purchase

occasions. We chose time units of four weeks for the cereals and facial tissues product categories

and eight weeks for the cereals brand. The resulting purchase levels for the cereals and facial

tissues categories arc shown in Figure 2.

In these categories, promotion is a major marketing activity. Figure 2 also shows hew the

6

proportion of purchase occasions made on deal varies over time for each category. The values

range from .15 to .22 for cereals, and from .33 to .41 for facial tissues. Thus, a substantial

proportion of purchases (and, though not shown, of quantity) are made on deal in each of the

periods. In addition to the high overall level of dealing activity, the variation over time is also

substantial. Px (and Pw), defined as the proportion of purchases (and quantity) made on deal,

serve as our measures of marketing activity influencing purchases. These measures reflect the

degree to which customers actually availed of the promotions rather than the promotions which

were offered to the market. The latter information was not available in our database. However, we

would like to note that the response to promotions offered could be no stronger than that to

promotions availed of.

A key part of our analysis is the way in which we estimate the baseline over time. Each

period's baseline is based on the previous period. Therefore, for a 4 week time unit, the results

consist of twelve pairs of periods - weeks 5-8 based on weeks 1-4, weeks 9-12 based on weeks 5-8,

, weeks 49-52 based on weeks 45-48. Let us denote the base period as I, and the subsequent

period as II. Then, we estimate {E[XELIXI]} for each group of customers with Xi=xi, where

xi=0,1 ,2,... with the last class being open-ended.

ANALYSIS RESULTS

Total category analysis

In Figure 3, the NBD-baselines for the number of purchase occasions (X) are plotted

against the actual outcomes for each prediction opportunity (defined above), separately for groups

of customers classified by the number of purchase occasions in period I. Each cluster of points

represents a group. The mean absolute percentage deviation over all points for the cereals category

(Figure 3A) is 5.8%. The corresponding statistic for the facial tissues category (Figure 3B) is

8.1%. The groups with a greater number of purchases in period I are also more variable about the

benchmark. It is worth noting that the actual X II values are quite different from the actual X1

7

FIGURE 3: Comparison of the NBD benchmarks for purchase occasions. Overall, benchmarks areclose to actual, with some more variability for heavier buyers. Plotted characters denote xi.

CEREALS

FACIAL TISSUES

Actual Purchase Occasions Actual .Purchase Occasions

0 2 4 6 8 10 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

0

0

(0

(N

0

0r>

0

O

O0

values. This suggests that a naive model E[X111X1)=xi would not predict very well. The mean

absolute percentage deviations for such a naive model are 24.9% and 80.2% for the cereals and

facial tissues categories respectively. Similar results are obtained for the purchase quantity, as

shown by Figures 4A and 4B, which correspond to Figures 3A and 3B respectively. However,

there is a slight tendency towards under-prediction for the groups making the greatest number of

purchases in period I. In summary, as noted by Morrison and Schmittlein (1988) and Ehrenberg

(1988), the NBD baseline estimates are quite close to actual values, although some deviations are

present.

To assess whether substantial deviations can be explained by promotion activities, the

response measure (X/i/E[XHIX/]) is plotted against the marketing stimulus measure (Px/i/Px1)

inFigure 5. Essentially, proportional deviations from benchmarks are being related to

corresponding proportional changes in marketing activities.

The scatterplots are quite noisy, and visual examination could be misleading. To explore

the response we superpose a robust, locally-weighted regression line on the points, following

8

950 0

0 200 600 1000 1400 0 20 40 60 BO

00

000

00CD

00

O

0CO

0

0

O

FIGURE 5: Proportional deviation of actual purchase occasions from benchmark againstproportional changes in-promotion activity. Plotted characters denote x 1. Lines are robust locally

weighted smooths excluding one group at a time.

(Pd.2/Pd.1) % Deal Purchase Occasions (Pd.2/Pd.1) % Deal Purchase Occasions

CEREALS0In

Uc>

O0)tf)(0-CC.)

00)

t5

ro0

0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6

FACIAL TISSUES

0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6

0U)

(080)

U)ari0

a.

00I...0

7.5

FIGURE 4: Comparison of the NBD benchmarks for purchase quantity. Benchmarks are close toactual, with some under-prediction for heavier buyers. Plotted characters denote xi.

CEREALS

FACIAL TISSUES

Actual Purchase Quantity Actual Purchase Quantity

Cleveland (1979). The purpose of the smoothing, which is essentially a nonparametric regression,

is to detect the nature of the underlying response function, and possibly some nonlincaritics. The

purpose of using a robust procedure is to guard against the undue influence of outliers. In addition,

9

1 2

2

3413 14

4

3 Zt 2

-3 4

3

31 2 1

41 1 2

443

21

we would like to explore the differences, if any, between different customers grouped by xi.

Therefore, the lines that are drawn in Figure 5 are locally weighted smooth curves obtained by

dropping one group (based on x i) at a time.

There do not appear to be major differences among the groups. Further, the curve is

approximately linear, with different slopes above and below the (1,1) point. The smoothed

patterns for cereals are arguably flat. In the case of facial tissues, the response is more sharply

kinked, being flat for promotion decreases and then rising steeply. For these data, based on the

exploratory analysis, we conclude that a reasonable response model would be piecewise linear,

with a common response for all buyers. We proceeded to fit such a model, and the results are seen

in Figure 6. For cereals, neither slope is significantly different from zero, suggesting the absence

of response to changes in promotion. For facial tissues, the slope below (1,1) is not different from

zero. The only significant slope is the right-hand linear segment, with a value of 0.37 (t=2.04).

Increases in promotion activity from one period to the next do have a positive effect on sales, but

FIGURE 6: Proportional deviation of actual purchase occasions from benchmark againstproportional changes in promotion activity. Plotted characters denote x i. Lines are least-squaresfits.

0,

CEREALS

0.4 0.6 OA 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6

FACIAL TISSUES

0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6

(Pd.2/Pd.1) % Deal Purchase Occasions (Pd.2/Pd.1) % Deal Purchase Occasions

1 0

CEREALS FACIAL TISSUES

N

0)to

a_ 0

O

a)

'15a)n_

ro

0

0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6

FIGURE 7: Proportional deviation of actual purchase quantity from benchmark against proportionalchanges in promotion activity. Plotted characters denote x1. Lines are least-squares fits.

the decreases in promotion activity that have been observed do not result in sales decreases. One

possible explanation is that other marketing efforts which are not part of our data set might be

increased in the period following a promotion. In summary, the deviations from the NBD baseline

appear to be related to the promotion ratio for facial tissues for increases, but are essentially

unrelated for cereals.

A similar analysis procedure was followed for the purchase quantity. The results are shown

in Figure 7. The pattern for cereals closely resembles that for the purchase occasions. The pattern

for facial tissues bears some resemblance to the corresponding pattern for purchase occasions, but

the relation is weaker. The slope for increases in promotional activities is 0.19, but is not

significantly different from zero.

(Pd.2/Pd.1) % Deal Purchase Quantity (Pd.2/Pd.1) % Deal Purchase Quantity

Brand

In order to assess the effects of promotion at the brand level we conducted a similar

11

C

0

00to

00

00

OO

00

O

0

FIGURE 8: Comparison of the NBD benchmarks for purchase occasions and purchase quantity forthe leading cereal brand. Overall, benchmarks are close to actual, with some more variability forheavier buyers. Plotted characters denote xi.

PURCHASE OCCASIONS

PURCHASE QUANTITY

0

2

3

4

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Actual Purchase Occasions

Actual Purchase Quantity

analysis for the leading cereals brand. Figure 8 shows that, as for the total category, the NBD

baseline for the purchase occasions (Figure 8A) and purchase quantity (Figure 8B) is quite close to

the actual values. Some under-prediction is indicated for the heaviest purchasing group. The mean

absolute percentage deviation is 12.0% for purchase occasions, and 13.5% for purchase quantity.

These levels suggest that deviations do exist, and we may seek to relate these to changes in the

brand's promotion level.

Deviations for the number of purchases occasions and the purchase quantity arc plotted against the

corresponding promotion ratios in Figure 9 (A and B). The promotion ratios for the brand range

from 0.3 to 1.8, which is greater than for the total product category. The exploratory analysis of

these data indicated that there was little difference between the different groups of consumers, and

that the relation was pieccwise linear above and below (1,1). The fitted linear response model is

superposed on the plot in Figure 9. None of the slopes arc significantly different from zero.

although it does appear that decreases in promotional activity may have caused some decrease in

sales. While it is possible that the effects of directly competitive brands could he quite severe and

12

O

CO.O

0

FIGURE 9: Proportional deviation of actual purchase occasions and actual purchase quantity frombenchmark against proportional changes in promotion activity for the leading cereal brand.Changes in promotion levels have little influence on brand sales. Plotted characters denote x1.

Lines are least-squares fits.

PURCHASE OCCASIONS

PURCHASE QUANTITY

0.0 0.5

1.0 1.5

2.0

0.0 0.5

1.0 1.5

2.0

(Pd.2/Pd.1) % Deal Purchase Occasions (Pd.2/Pd.1) % Deal Purchase Quantity

vitiate our approach, it is less likely that this competitive activity would have been consistently

correlated over the 6 eight-week observations.

Analysis of Non-buyers

The response analysis has not incorporated non-buyers in period I since the specific

promotion measure that we use is not defined when X1=0. A separate analysis done on these data

indicate that the deviations are very small, and surprisingly, the proportion of on-deal purchases for

non-buyers is relatively stable even though the overall promotion levels vary (as seen in Figure 2).

This suggests that although promotional purchasing does occur, non-buyers have not responded

substantially to the promotional changes that have occurred during the period of our analysis in

these two categories.

13

DISCUSSION & DIRECTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

In this paper we report on the value of using the negative binomial model to estimate

baseline purchasing levels for measuring short-run changes that might result from marketing

activities like promotions. In particular, we use a control-chart-like procedure (with an ongoing

baseline estimate) to identify deviations, and then subject the deviations to a response analysis to

uncover the effect of changes in marketing activities.

The major finding for the data we analyze is that promotions do not appear to influence

purchasing behavior as we measure it. The single exception occurs in the case of the facial tissues

category. It is important to realize that our measure of promotion activity is the period-to-period

proportional change, and therefore in the case of some ongoing promotions cannot really answer

the question of what would happen if all promotions were removed. One possible explanation may

simply be that the NBD model is remarkably adept at capturing essential short-run dynamics and

naturally exploiting the effects of consumer heterogeneity. For this reason, it must be considered a

good candidate for continuous monitoring of the market. On the other hand, our results may be

weakened by the quality of our data (for example, we did not have data on the promotional

offerings by type of promotion) and the exclusion of other influential variables. Perhaps the

surprising results are worthy of further probing.

While the analysis reported here provides a useful starting point, a number of important

issues remain to be addressed. Our particular examples use diary panel data and only one measure

of marketing activity. With the increased availability of "single-source" data, we should be able to

study a variety of product classes and incorporate other relevant marketing activities such as store

features, price cuts and so on. These data will also allow us to study the non-buyers in greater

detail. Further, single-source data should enable us to study in depth the cross-effects of different

brand activities and more detailed product level activities.

A technical issue that we arc continuing to explore is the choice of time unit. In our

i4

analysis for this paper, we used a fixed base period to form a baseline estimate for the following

period of the same length. Clearly other possibilities exist, and in particular, emphasizing our

control-chart idea, we are evaluating the use of smoothing techniques to capture the effects of

longer base periods. Finally, we would like to extend our approach to situations where the NBD

assumptions may not hold, leading to alternative baseline estimation models.

15

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16

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Sjur Didrik FLAM "Semi-competitive Cournot equilibrium inand Georges ZACCOUR multistage oligopolies", April 1988.

88/27

Murugapps KRISHNAN "Entry game with resalable capacity",Lars-Hendrik ROLLER April 1988.

Sumantra GHOSHAL andC. A. BARTLETT

Naresh K. MALHOTRA,Christian PINSON andArun K. LAIN

"The multinational corporation as a network:perspectives from interorganizationaltheory", May 1988.

"Consumer cognitive complexity and thedimensionality of multidimensional scalingconfigurations", May 1988.

88/28

88/29

88/30

Catherine C. ECKEL

"The financial fallout from Chernobyl: riskand Theo VERMAELEN perceptions and regulatory response, May

1988.

88/31 Sumantra GHOSHAL and

"Creation, adoption, and diffusion ofChristopher BARTLEIT

innovations by subsidiaries of multinationalcorporations", June 1988.

88/32

ICasra FERDOWS and

"International manufacturing: positioningDavid SACKRIDER plants for success", June 1988.

88/33

Mihkel M. TOMBAK "The importance of flexibility inmanufacturing", June 1988.

88/34 Mihkel M. TOMBAK "Flexibility: an important dimension inmanufacturing", June 1988.

88/35 Mihkel M. TOMBAK "A strategic analysis of investment in flexiblemanufacturing systems", July 1988.

88/36 Vikas TIBREWALA and "A Predictive Test of the 1•11111 Model thatBruce BUCHANAN Controls for Non-stalMnarity", June 1988.

88/37 Murugappa KRISHNAN "Regulating Price-Liability Competition ToLars-Hendrik ROLLER Improve Welfare", July 1988.

88/38 Manfred KETS DE VRIES "The Motivating Role of Envy : A ForgottenFactor is Management", April 88.

88/39 Manfred KETS DE VRIES "The Leader as Minor : ClinicalReflections", July 1988.

88/40 Josef LAKONISHOK and "Anomalous price behavior aroundTheo VERMAELEN repurchase tender offers", August 1988.

88/41 Charles WYPLOSZ "Assymell7 in the EMS: intentional orsystemic?", August 1988.

88/42 Paul EVANS "Organizational development in thetransnational enterprise", June 1988.

88/43 B. SINCLAIR-DESGAGNE "Group decision support systems implementRayed= rationality", September 1988.

88/44 Essam MAHMOUD and "The state of the art sod future directionsSpyros MAICRIDAIUS in combining forecasts", September 1988.

88/45 Robert KORAJCZYK "An empirical investigation of internationaland Claude VIALLET asset pricing", November 1986, revised

August 1988.

88/46 Yves DOZ and "From intent to outcome: • processAmy SHUEN framework for partnerships", August 1988.

88/47 Alain BULTEZ,Els GUSBRECHTS,

"Asymmetric cannibalism between substituteitems listed by retailers", September 1988.

88/23 Sjur Didrik FLAM "Eimilibres de Nash-Cournot dam le march*and Georges ZACCOUR europden du gar: un c gs oh les solutions en

boucle ouverte et en feedback coincident",Mars 1988.

88/58 B. SINCLAIR-DESGAGNEand Mihkel M. TOMBAK

"Reflections on 'Wait unemployment' inEurope, II", April 1988 revised September1988.

"Information 'symmetry and equity issues",September 1988.

"Mann* expert systems: from inceptionthrough updating", October 1987.

"Technology, work, and the organization:the impact of expert systems", July 1988.

"Cognition and organizational analysis:who's minding the store?", September 1988.

"Whatever happened to the philosopher-king: the leader's addiction to power,September 1988.

"Strategic choice of flexible productiontechnologies and welfare implications",October 1988

"Method of moments tests of contingentclaims asset pricing models", October 1988.

"Size-sorted portfolios and the violation ofthe random walk hypothesis: Additionalempirical evidence and implication for testsof asset pricing models", June 1988.

"Data transferability: estimating the responseeffect of future events based on historicalanalogy", October 1988.

"Assessing economic inequality", November1988.

88/59 Martin KILDUFF

88/60 Michael BURDA

88/61 Lars-Hendrik ROLLER

88/62 Cynthia VAN HULLE,Theo VERMAELEN andPaul DE WOUTERS

88/63 Fernando NASCIMENTOand Wilfried R.VANHONACKER

88/64 Kasra FERDOWS

88/65 Arnaud DE MEYERand Kasra FERDOWS

88/66 Nathalie DIERKENS

88/67 Paul S. ADLER and

Kasra FERDOWS

1989

89/01 Joyce K. BYRER andTawfik JELASSI

89/02 Louis A. LE BLANCand Tawfik JELASS1

"The interpersonal structure of decisionmaking: a social comparison approach toorganizational choke", November 1988.

"Is mismatch really the problem? Someestimates of the Chelwood Gate H modelwith US data", September 1988.

"Modelling cost structure: the Bell Systemrevisited", November 1988.

"Regulation, taxes and the market forcorporate control in Belgium", September1988.

"Strategic pricing of differentiated consumerdurables io a dynamic duopoly: a numericalanalysis", October 1988.

"Charting strategic roles for internationalfactories", December 1988.

"Quality up, technology down", October 1988

"A discussion of exact measures ofinformation ossymeny: the example of Myersand Moftuf model or the importance of theasset structure of the firm", December 1988.

"The chief technology officer", December1988.

"The impact of language theories on DSSdialog", January 1989.

"DSS software selection: a multiple criteriadecision methodology", January 1989.

Philippe NAERT andPiet VANDEN ABEELE

88/48 Michael BURDA

88/49

Nathalie DIERKENS

88/50

Rob WEITZ andArnoud DE MEYER

88/51

Rob WEffZ

88/52

Susan SCHNEIDER andReinhard ANGELMAR

88/53

Manfred }curs DE VRIES

88/54

Lars-Hendrik ROLLERand Mihkel M. TOMBAK

88/55

Peter BOSSAERTSand Pierre HILLION

88/56

Pierre HILLION

88/57

Wilfried VANHONACKERand Lydia PRICE

89/03 Beth H. JONES andTawfik JELASSI

89/04

Kasra FERDOWS andArnoud DE MEYER

89/0S

Martin KILDUFF andReinhard ANGELMAR

89/06

Mihkel M. TOMBAK andB. SINCLAIR-DESGAGNE

89/07

Damien J. NEVEN

89/08

Arnoud DE MEYER andHellmut SCHG7TE

89/09

Damien NEVEN,Carmen MATUTES andMarcel CORSTJENS

89/10 Nathalie DIERKENS,Bruno GERARD andPierre HILLION

89/11

Manfred KETS DE VRIESand Alain NOEL

89/12 Wilfried VANHONACKER

"Negotiation support: the effects of computerintervention and conflict level on bargainingoutcome", January 1989.

"Lasting improvement in manufacturingperformance: In search of • new theory",January 1989.

"Shared history or shared culture? Theeffects of time, culture, and performance oninstitutionalization in simulatedorganizations", January 1989.

"Coordinating manufacturing and businessstrategies: 1", February 1989.

"Structural adjustment in European retailbanking. Some view from industrialorganisation", January 1989.

"Trends in the development of technologyand their effects on the production structurein the European Community", January 1989.

"Brand proliferation and entry deterrence",February 1989.

"A market based approach to the valuationof the assets ia place and the growthopportunities of the firm", December 1988.

"Understanding the leader-strategy interface:application of the strategic relationshipinterview method", February 1989.

"Estimating dynamic response models whenthe data are subject to different temporalaggregation", January 1989.

89/13 Manfred KETS DE VRIES

89/14

Reinhard ANGELMAR

89/15

Reinhard ANGELMAR

89/16

Wilfried VANHONACKER,Donald LEHMANN andFareena SULTAN

89/17

Gilles AMADO,Claude FAUCHEUX andAndrea LAURENT

89/18

Srinivasan BALAK-RISHNAN andMitchell KOZA

89/19

Wilfried VANHONACKER,Donald LEHMANN andFattens SULTAN

89/20

Wilfried VANHONACKERand Russell Arum.

89/21 Arnoud de MEYER and

Kasra FERDOWS

89/22

Manfred KETS DE VRIESand Sydney PERZOW

89/23

Robert KORAJCZYK andClaude vIALLET

89/24

Martin KILDUFF andMitchel ABOLAFIA

"The impostor syndrome: a disquietingphenomenon in organizational life", February1989.

"Product innovation: a tool for competitiveadvantage", March 1989.

"Evaluating a firm's product innovationperformance", March 1989.

"Combining related and sparse data in linearregression models", February 1989.

"Changement organisationnel et real&culturelles: contrast.' franco-amdricains",March 1989.

"Information asymmetry, market failure andjoint-ventures: theory and evidence",March 1989.

"Combining related mad sparse data in linearregression models", Revised March 1989.

"A rational madam behavior model ofchoice", Revised March 1989.

"Influeace of ntaoufacteriset improvementprogrammes on performance", April 1989.

"What is the role of character inpsychoanalysis?" April 1989.

"Equity risk premix sad the pricbm offoreign eschew risk" April 1989.

"The social destruction of reality:Organisational conflict as social drama"zApril 1989.

89/25 Roger BETANCOURT andDavid GAUTSCHI

89/26

Charles BEAN,Edmond MALINVAUD,Peter BERNHOLZ,Francesco GIAVAllIand Charles WYPLOSZ

89/27

David KRACKHARDT andMartin KILDUFF

89/28

Martin KILDUFF

89/29 Robert GOGEL andlean-Claude LARRECHE

89/30 Lars-Hendrik ROLLERand Mihkel M. TOMBAK

89/31 Michael C. BURDA andStefan GERLACH

89/32 Peter HAUG andTawfik JELASSI

89/33 Bernard SINCLAIR-DESGAGNE

89/34

Sumantra GHOSHAL andNittin NOHRIA

89/35 Jean DERMINE andPierre HILLION

"Two essential characteristics of retailmarkets and their economic consequences"March 1989.

"Macroeconomic policies for 1992: thetransition and after", April 1989.

"Friendship patterns and culturalattributions: the control of organizationaldiversity", April 1989.

"The interpersonal structure of decisionmaking: a social comparison approach toorganizational choice", Revised April 1989.

"The battlefield for 1992: product strengthand geographic coverage", May 1989.

"Competition and Investment in FlexibleTechnologies", May 1989.

"Intertempond prices and the US tradebalance in durable goods", July 1989.

"Application and evaluation of a multi-criteria decision support system for thedynamic selection of U.S. manufacturinglocations', May 1989.

"Design flexibility in monopsonisticindustries", May 1989.

"Requisite variety versus shared values:managing corporate-division relationships inthe M-Form organisation", May 1989.

"Deposit rate ceifings and the market valueof banks: The case of France 1971-1981",May 1980.

89/36 Martin KILDUFF

89/37 Manfred KETS DE VRIES

89/38

Manfred KETS DE VRIES

89/39

Robert KORAJCZYK andClaude WALLET

89/40

Balaji CHAKRAVARTHY

89/41 B. SINCLAIR-DESGAGNEand Nathalie DIERKENS

89/42

Robert ANSON andTawflk JELASSI

89/43

Michael BURDA

89/44 Balaji CHAKRAVARTHY

and Peter LORANGE

89/45

Rob WEITZ andArnoud DE MEYER

89/46

Marcel CORSTIENS,Carmen MATUTES andDamien NEVEN

89/47

Manfred KEI'S DE VRIESand Christine MEAD

89/48 Damien NEVEN andLars-Hendrik ROLLER

"A dispositions' approach to social networks:the case of organizational choice", May 1989.

"The organisational fool: balancing aleader's hubris", May 1989.

"The CEO blues", June 1989.

"An empirical investigation of internationalasset pricing", (Revised June 1989).

"Management systems for innovation andproductivity", June 1989.

"The strategic supply of precisions", June1989.

"A development framework for computer-supported conflict resolution", July 1989.

"A note on firing coats nod severance benefitsin equilibrium unempbymeat", June 1989.

"Strategic adaptation in multi-businessfirms", June 1989.

"Managing expert eyebolts: • framework andcase study", June 1989.

"Entry Encouragement", July 1989.

"The global dimension in leadership andorganization: issues and controversies", April1989.

"Europese integration and trade flows",August 1989.

89/49 Jean DERMINE "Home country control and mutualrecognition", July 1989. 89/62 Arnoud DE MEYER

(TM)89/50 Jean DERMINE "The specialization of financial institutions,

the EEC model", August 1989. 89/63 Enver YUCESAN and(TM) Lee SCHRUBEN

89/51 Spyros MAKRIDAKIS "Sliding simulation: a new approach to timeseries forecasting", July 1989. 89/64 Enver YUCESAN and

(1M) Lee SCHRUBEN89/52 Atwood DE MEYER "Shortening development cycle times: a

manufacturer's perspective", August 1989. 89/65 Soumitra DUTTA and

89/53 Spyros MAKRIDAKIS "Why combining works?", July 1989.(TM,AC, FIN)

Piero BONISSONE

89/54 S. BALAIGUSHNAN "Organisation costs and a theory of joint 89/66 B. SINCLAIR-DESGAGNEand Mitchell KOZA ventures"; September 1989. (TM,EP)

89/55 H. SCHUTTE "Euro-Japanese cooperation in information 89/67 Peter BOSSAERTS andtechnology", September 1989. (FIN) Pierre HILLION

89/56 Wilfried VANHONACKERand Lydia PRICE

"On the practical usefulness of meta-analysisresults", September 1989.

89/57 Taekwon KIM,Lars-Hendrik ROLLERand Mihkel TOMBAK

"Market growth and the diffusion ofmultiproduct technologies", September 1989. 90/01

TM/EP/ACB. SINCLAIR-DESGAGNE

89/58 Lens-Hendrik ROLLER "Strategic aspects of flexible production 90/02 Michael BURDA(EP,TM) and Mihkel TOMBAK technologies", October 1989. EP

89/59(OR)

Manfred KETS DE VRIES,Daphnis ZEVADI,Alain NOEL and

"Locus of control and entrepreneurship: •three-country comparative study", October1989.

90/03TM

Arnoud DE MEYER

Mihkel TOMBAK

89/60 Enver YUCESAN and "gtoulation graphs for design and analysis of 90/04 Gabriel HAWAWINI and(TM) Lee SCHRUBEN discrete event simulation models", October FIN/EP Eric RAJENDRA

1989.

89/61 Susan SCHNEIDER and "Interpreting and responding to strategic 90/05 Gabriel HAWAWINI and(All) Arnoud DE MEYER issues: The impact of national culture". FIN/EP Bertrand JACQUILLAT

October 1989.

"Technology strategy and international R&Doperations", October 1989.

"Equivalence of simulations: A graphapproach", November 1989.

"Complexity of simulation models: A graphtheoretic approach", November 1989.

"MARS: A mergers and acquisitionsreasoning system", November 1989.

"On the regulation of procurement bids",November 1989.

"Market microstructure effects ofgovernment interventioa in the foreignexchange market", December 1989.

"Unavoidable Mechanisms", January 1990.

"Mosopolstic Competition, Costs ofAdjustment, sod the Behaviour of EuropeanManaletorieR Employment", January 1990.

"Management of Communication inInternational Research and Development",January 1990.

"The Transformation of the EuropeanFinancial Services Industry: FromFragmentation to Integration", January 1990.

"Europe se Equity Markets: Toward 1992and Beyond", January 1990.

90/06 Gabriel HAWAWINI and "Integration of European Equity Markets:FIN/EP Eric RAJENDRA Implications of Structural Change for Key

Market Participants to and Beyond 1992",January 1990.

90/17FIN

Nathalie DIERKENS "Information Asymmetry and Equity Issues",Revised January 1990.

90/18 Wilfried VANHONACKER "Managerial Decision Rules and the90/07 Gabriel HAWAWINI "Stock Market Anomalies and the Pricing of MKT Estimation of Dynamic Sales ResponseFIN/EP Equity on the Tokyo Stock Exchange",

January 1990.Models", Revised January 1990.

90/19 Beth JONES and "The Effect of Computer Intervention and90/08TM/EP

Tawfik JELASSI andB. SINCLAIR-DESGAGNE

"Modelling with MCDSS: What aboutEthics?", January 1990.

TM Tawfik JELASSI Task Structure on Bargaining Outcome",February 1990.

90/09 Alberto GIOVANNINI "Capital Controls and International Trade 90/20 Tawfik JELASSI, "An Introduction to Group Decision andEP/FIN and Jae WON PARK Finance", January 1990. TM Gregory KERSTEN and Negotiation Support", February 1990.

Stanley ZIONTS90/10 Joyce BRYER and "The Impact of Language Theories on DSS

TM Tawfi k JELASSI Dialog", January 1990. 90/21 Roy SMITH and "Reconfiguration of the Global SecuritiesFIN Ingo WALTER Industry in the 1990's", February 1990.

90/11 Enver YUCESAN "An Overview of Frequency DomainTM Methodology for Simulation Sensitivity

Analysis", January 1990.90/22FIN

Ingo WALTER "European Flitancial Integration and Itslogs:aim for the United States", February1990.

90/12 Michael BURDA "Structural Change, Unemployment BenefitsEP and High Unemployment: A U.S.-European 90/23 Damien NEVEN "EEC Integration towards 1992: Some

Comparison", January 1990. EP/SM Distributional Aspects", Revised December1989

90/13 Soumitra DUTTA and "Approximate Reasoning about TemporalTM Shashi SHE/CHAR Constraints in Real Time Planning and 90/24 Lars Tyge NIELSEN "Positive Prices i CAPM", January 1990.

Search", January 1990. FIN/EP

90/14TM

Albert ANGEHRN andHens-Jakob LOTHI

"Visual Interactive Modelling and IntelligentDSS: Putting Theory Into Practice", January

90/25FIN/EP

Lars Tyge NIELSEN "Existent of Equilibrium in CAPM",January 1990.

1990.90/26 Charles KADUSHIN and "Why networking Double Binds and

90/15TM

Amoud DE MEYER,Dirk DESCHOOLMEESTER,Rudy MOENAERT and

"The Internal Technological Renewal of •Business Unit with • Mature Technology",January 1990.

OB/BP Michael BRIMM the Limitations of Shadow Networks",February 1990.

Jan BARBE 90/27 Abbas FOROUGHI and "NSS Solutions to Major NegotiationTM Tawfik JELASSI Stumbling Blocks", February 1990.

90/16 Richard LEVICH and "Trot-Driven Regulatory Drag: EuropeanFIN Ingo WALTER Financial Centers in the 1990's", January 90/28 Amend DE MEYER "The Manufacturing Contribution to

1990. TM Innovation", February 1990.

90/40 Manfred KETS DE VRIES "Leaders oa the Couch: The case of Roberto90/29 Nathalie DIERKENS "A Discussion of Correct Measures of OR Calvi", April 1990.FIN/AC Information Asymmetry", January 1990.

90/30 Lars Tyge NIELSEN "The Expected Utility of Portfolios of90/41FIN/EP

Gabriel HAWAWINI,Itrhak SWARY and

"Capital Market Reaction to theAnnouncement of Interstate Ranking

FIN/EP Assets", March 1990. lk HWAN LANG Legislation", March 1990.

90/31 David GAUTSCHI and "What Determines U.S. Retail Margins?", 90/42 Joel STECKEL and "Cross-Validating Regression Models inMKT/EP Roger BETANCOURT Febenry 1990. MKT Wilfried VANHONACKER Marketing Research", (Revised April 1990).

90/32 Srinivasan BALAK- "Information Asymmetry, Adverse Selection 90/43 Robert KORAJCZYK and "Equity Risk Protein and the Pricing ofSM RISHNAN and

Mitchell KOZAand Joint-Ventures: Theory and Evidence",Revised, January 1990.

FIN Claude VIALLET Foreign Exchange Risk", May 1990.

90/33 Caren SIEHL, "The Role of Rites of Integration in Service 90/44 Gilles AMADO, "Organisational Change and CulturalOR David BOWEN and Delivery", March 1990. OB Claude FAUCHEUX and Realities: Franco-American Contrasts", April

Christine PEARSON Andre LAURENT 1990.

90/45 Soumitra DUTTA and "Integrating Case Based and Rule Based90/34FIN/EP

Jean DERMINE "The Gains: from European BankingIntegration, a Call for • Pro-Active

TM Piero BONISSONE Reasoning: The Possibilistic Connection",May 1990.

Competition Policy", April 1990.90/46 Spyros MAKRIDAIUS "Exponential Smorafike: The Effect of

90/35 Jae Won PARK "Changing Uncertainty and the Time- TM and Michele HIBON Initial Values and Loss Fonctions on Post-EP Varying Risk Prussia in the Term Structure

of Nominal Interest Rates", December 1988,Revised March 1990. 90/47 Lydia PRICE and

Sample Forecasting Accuracy".

"Improper Sampling • NaturalMKT Wilfried VANHONAC10ER Experimeats: Limitation on the Use of

90/36 Arnaud DE MEYER "An Empirical Investigation of Meta-Analysis Results • BayesianTM Manufacturing Strategies in European Updating", Revised May 1990.

Industry", April 1990.90/48 Jae WON PARK "The Information in the Term Structure of

90/37TM/OB/SM

William CATS-BARN. "Executive Information Systems: Developingan Approach to Open the Possibles", April

EP Interest Rates: Out.of-Sample ForecastingPerformance", June 1990.

1990.90/49 Soumitra DUITA "Approximate Reasoning by Analogy to

90/38 Wilfried VANHONACICER "Managerial Decision Behaviour and the TM Answer Null Queries", June 1990.MKT Estimation of Dynamic Sales Response

Models", (Revised February 1990). 90/50 Daniel COHEN and "Price and Trade Effects of Exchange RatesEP Charles WYPLOSZ Fluctuations and the Design of Policy

90/39TM

Louis LE BLANC andTawfik JELASSI

"An Evaluation and Selection Methodologyfor Expert System Shells", May 1990.

Coordination", April 1990.

90/51 Michael BURDA and "Gross Labour Market Flows in Europe: 90/63 Sumantra GHOSHAL and "Organising Competitor Analysis Systems",EP Charles WYPLOSZ Some Stylized Facts", lune 1990. SM Eleanor WESTNEY August 1990

90/52 Lan Tyge NIELSEN "The Utility of Infinite Menus", lune 1990. 90/64 Sumantra GHOSHAL "Internal Differentiation and CorporateFIN SM Performance: Case of the Multinational

Corporation", August 199090/53 Michael Biwds "The Consequences of German EconomicEP and Monetary Union", June 1990. 90/65 Charles WYPLOSZ "A Note on the Real Exchange Rate Effect of

EP German Unification", August 199090/54 Damien NEVEN and "European Financial Regulation: A

EP Cohn MEYER Framework for Policy Analysis", (Revised 90/66 Soumitra DUTTA and "Computer Support for Strategic and TacticalMay 1990). TM/SE/FIN Piero BONISSONE Pluming in Mergers and Acquisitions",

September 199090/55 Michael BURDA and "Intertemporal Prices and the US Trade

EP

90/56

Stefan GERLACH

Damien NEVEN and

Balance", (Revised July 1990).

"The Structure and Determinants of East-West

90/67

TM/SE/FIN

Soumitra DUTTA and

Piero BONISSONE"Integrating Prior Cases and Expert Knowledge In

a Mergers and Acquisitions Reasoning System",September 1990

EP Lars-Hendrik ROLLER Trade: A Preliminary Analysis of the

Manufacturing Sector", July 1990 90/68 Soumitra DUTTA "A Framework and Methodology for Enhancing the

TM/SE Business Impact of Artificial Intelligence

90/57 Lan Tyge NIELSEN Common Knowledge of a Multivariate Aggregate Applications", September 1990

FIN/EP/ Statistic", July 1990

TM 90/69 Soumitra DUTTA "A Model for Temporal Reasoning in MedicalTM Expert Systems", September 1990

90/58 Lars Tyge NIELSEN "Common Knowledge of Price and Expected CostFIN/EP/TM in an Oligopolistic Market", August 1990 90/70

TM

Albert ANGEHRN "'Triple C': A Visual Interactive MCDSS",September 1990

90/59 Ian DERMINE and "Economies of Scale andFIN Lars-Hendrik ROLLER Scope in the French Mutual Funds (SICAV) 90/71 Philip PARKER and "Competitive Effects in Diffusion Models: An

Industry", August 1990 MKT Hubert GATIGNON Empirical Analysis", September 1990

90/60 Pen IZ and "An Interactive Group Decision Aid for 90/72 Enver YUCESAN "Analysis of Markov Chains Using SimulationTM Tawfik JELASSI Maltiobjective Problems: An Empirical TM Graph Models", October 1990

Assessment", September 1990

90/61 Pankaj CHANDRA and "Models for the Estimation of Manufacturing

90/73

TM

Armond DE MEYER and

Kura FERDOWS

"Removing the Barriers in Manufacturing",

October 1990

TM Mihkel TOMBAK Flexibility", August 1990

90/62 Damien NEVEN and "Public Policy Towards TV Broadcasting in the 90/74 Sumantra GHOSHAL and "Requisite Complexity: On/An Headquarters-

EP Menno VAN DUK Netherlands", August 1990 SM Nitin NOHRIA Subsidiary Relations in MNCs", October 1990

90/75MKT

Roger BETANCOURT andDavid GAUTSCHI

"The Outputs of Retail Activities: Concepts,

Measurement and Evidence". October 199090/87

FIN/EPLars Tyge NIELSEN "Existence of Equilibrium in CAI'M: Further

Results", December 1990

90/76 Wilfried VANHONACKER *Managerial Decision Behaviour and the Estimation 90/88 Susan C. SCHNEIDER and "Cognition in Organisational Analysis: Who'sMKT of Dynamic Sales Response Modal",

Revised October 1990OB/MKT Reinhard ANGEL-MAR Minding the Store?" Revised, December 1990

90/89 Manfred F.R. KETS DE VRIES "The CEO 1Vbo Couldn't Talc Straight and Other90/71 Wilfncd VANHONACKER "Testing the Koyck Scheme of Sales Response to OB Tales from the Board Roos,' December 1990MKT Advertising: An Aggregation-Independent

Aelocorrelation Test", October 1990 90/90 Philip PARKER "Price Elasticity Dynamics over the AdoptionMKT Lifecyck: An Empirical Study,' December 1990

90/78 Michael BURDA and "Exchange Rate Dynamics and CurrencyEl' Stefan GERLACH Unification: The Ostmark - DM Rate",

October 1990

90/79 Anil GABA 'Inferences with in Unknown Noise Level in •

TM Bernoulli Process", October 1990

90/80 Anil GABA and "Using Survey Data in Inferences about PurchaseTM Robert WINKLER Behaviour", October 1990 1991

90/81 Tawfik JELASSI "Du Pr!sent au Futnr: DiIan et Orientations desTM Systkoes Interne6fs d'Aide k Ia Dkision,"

October 199091/01TM/).NI

Luk VAN WASSENHOVE,Leonard FORTUIN and

"Operational Remelted' Can Do More for Managers

Than They Thinkt,•

Paul VAN BEEK January 199190/82 Charles WYPLOSZ "Monetary Union and Fiscal Policy Discipline,"EP November 1990 91/02

TM/SatLuk VAN WASSENHOVE,Leonard FORTUIN and

"Operational Research and Environment,'

January 1991

90/83 Nathalie DIERKENS and "Information Asymmetry and Corporate Paul VAN REEKF1N/TM Bernard SINCLAIR-DESGAGNE Communication: Results of a Pilot Study",

November 1990 91/03 Pekka HIETALA and "An Implicit Dividend Increase in Rights Issues:

FIN Timo LOYTTYNIEM1 Theory and Evidence," January 199190/84 Philip M. PARKER "The Effect of Advertising on Price and Quality:MKT The Optometric Industry Revisited,' 91/04 Lars Tyge NIELSEN "Two-Fond Separation, Factor Structure and

December 1990 FIN Robustness," January 1991

90/8S Avijit GHOSH and "Optimal Tinting and Location in Competitive 91/05 Susan SCHNEIDER "Managing Boundaries in Organisations,"MKT Vika, TIBREWALA Markets," November 1990 011 January 1991

90/86 Olivier CADOT and 'Prudence and Success in Politics," November 1990 91/06 Manfred KETS DE VRIES, "Understanding the Leader-Strategy Interface:EP/TM Bernard SINCLAIR-DESGAGNE 011 Danny MILLER and Application of the Strategic Relationship Interview

Alain NOEL Method," January 1990 (89/11, revised April 1990)

91/07 Olivier CADOT "Lending to Insolvent Countries: A Paradoxical

EP Story," January 1991 91/19 Vikas TIBREWALA and "An Aggregate Test of Purchase Regularity",MKT Bruce BUCHANAN March 1991

91/08 Charles WYPLOSZ "Post-Reform East and West: Capital

EP Accumulation and the Labour Mobility

Constraint," January 1991

91/09 Spyros MAKRIDAKIS "What can we Learn from Failure?", February 1991

TM

91/10 Lee Van WASSENHOVE and

TM C. N. POTTS

"Integrating Scheduling with Hatching and

Lot-Sizing: A Review of Algorithms and

Complexity", February 1991

91/11 Luc VAN WASSENHOVE et al. "Multi-Item Lotsizing in Capacitated Multi-Stage

TM Serial Systems", February 1991

91/12 Albert ANGEHRN "Interpretative Computer Intelligence: A Link

TM between Users, Models and Methods in DSS",

February 1991

91/13 Michael BURDA "Labor and Product Markets in Czechoslovakia and

EP the Ex-GDR: A Twin Study", February 1991

91/14 Roger BETANCOURT and "The Output of Retail Activities: French

MKT David GAUTSCHI Evidence", February 1991

91/15 Manfred F.R. KETS DE VRIES "Exploding the Myth about Rational Organisations

OB and Executives", March 1991

91/16 Amoud DE MEYER and

TM Kasra FERDOWS et.al.

91/17 Dirk CATTRYSSE,

TM Roelof KWIC

Marc SALOMON and

Luk VAN WASSENHOVE

"Factories of the Future: Executive Summary of

the 1990 International Manufacturing Futures

Survey", March 1991

"Heuristics for the Discrete Lotsizing and

Scheduling Problem with Setup Times", March 1991

91/18 C.N. POTTS and "Approximation Algorithms for Scheduling a Single

TM Luk VAN WASSENHOVE Machine to Minimize Total Late Work",

March 1991