Monitoring and analyzing food and agricultural policies ... · Monitoring and analyzing food and...
Transcript of Monitoring and analyzing food and agricultural policies ... · Monitoring and analyzing food and...
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Monitoring and analyzing food and agricultural policies:
scope, focus and early results
Jean Balié, MAFAP, FAO
TCI Investment Days 2012 Rome, 17-18 December 2012
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Outline
1. Introduction. What is MAFAP?
2. Scope and focus
3. Example of results for one country
4. Examples of cross country comparison
5. Conclusions
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What is MAFAP?
Monitoring and Analyzing Food and Agricultural Policies
• Analyses policy impacts on food & agriculture with comparable
indicators across commodities, countries and over time
– Price analysis
– Expenditure and aid
– Policy coherence
• Builds capacities of national partners for institutionalization
• Targets policy makers & development partners to promote
evidence-based policy dialogue
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Which indicators and what kind of
analysis?
1. Market price support (NRPs/NRAs and
MDGs)
2. Public expenditure level and composition
3. Policy coherence
4. Country and sector performances
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Where does MAFAP focus?
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What commodities and expenditures does MAFAP analyze? Commodity list Burkina Mali Kenya Tanzania Uganda Ethiopia Ghana Malawi Mozamb. Nigeria Total
1 Maize S S S S S S S S S S 10
2 Rice S S S S S S S S 8
3 Cassava S v S S S S S 7
4 Sorghum-Millet S S S S S S S 7
5 Cotton fiber S S S S S S S 7
6 Beans - Cowpeas S S S S S S 6
7 Livestock S S S v S v 6
8 Cow milk S S S v S 5
9 Sugar cane S S S S S 5
10 Groundnuts S S v S 4
11 Coffee S S S S 4
12 Palm, Cotton, Sesame oil S v S S 4
13 Wheat S S S 3
14 Tea S S S 3
15 Tobacco S S 2
16 Cocoa S S 2
17 Sesame S 1
18 Arabic gum S 1
19 Yam S 1
20 Fish S 1
21 Oignon S 1
22 Teff S 1
Total 11 8 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 89
Selected technical notes are already available on the web www.fao.org/mafap
S S S S S S S Expenditures
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What are the MAFAP products ?
• Data base • Triennial multi-country report • Country reports • Technical notes • Policy monitoring system • Support to evidence-based policy
dialogue and decision making
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Example of results for one country: Rice analysis in Mali, 2005-2010
Market price support
• Expenditure and aid
• Policy coherence
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Rice production and marketing in Mali
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Rice production and trade
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Policy decisions and measures
• Input subsidies
• Tax exemptions on imports
• Price ceilings
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Are there incentives to rice production ? Surging world food prices
yet more disincentives ! Policies effective to
absorb the price rise
(180,000)
(160,000)
(140,000)
(120,000)
(100,000)
(80,000)
(60,000)
(40,000)
(20,000)
-
20,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Écart de prix observé au point de compétition Écart de prix ajusté au point de compétition
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Payments to producers - input
subsidies
35%
Payments to producers - income
support
1%
Payments to consumers
1%Payments to processors
2%
Payments to traders
0%
Agricultural research
3%
Technical assistance
3%Training
10%
Extension1%
Inspection (veterinary/plant)
7%
Infrastructure21%
Storage/public stockholding
5%
Marketing10%
Other1%
Seeds, ag equipment,
fertilizers. Impact of RI
Yet Ag.research very high return
on ag prod / poverty reduction
Roads and
irrigation.
Mainly for
rice-
promotion
projects
Source : MAFAP, FAO
Expenditure composition
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Rural education10%
Rural health12%
Rural infrastructure -
roads
39%
Rural infrastructure -
water and
sanitation2%
Rural infrastructure -
energy
1%
Rural infrastructure -
other
0%
Other36%
Lowering
access costs
(transport)
Source : MAFAP, FAO
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rice63%
fish20%
cattle9% cotton
4%shea 1%
milk1%
poultry1%
wood1%
wheat0%
shallot0%
sesame0%
jatropha0%
Source : MAFAP, FAO
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GVT
OBJECTIVES
Policy
Coherence MAFAP
FINDINGS GVT
POLICIES
Coherent
?
Linked
?
Related
?
Net exporter of rice
Boosting production
Improving producers’
revenue
Food security
Tax exoneration on
imports : 08-09
Price ceilings: 08-09
Input subsidies :
08-ongoing…
Incentives or
disincentives and
for whom ?
Public expenditures:
going to rice ?
Irrigation
infrastructures ?
Input subsidies ?
MAFAP analysis of policy coherence:
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Main messages
• Objective (Mali as a net exporter) not supported by effects of
measures
• Implicit objective to support consumers outweigh support
to producers (lowest prices in West Africa)
• Unfavorable environment for investments by farmers
• Exchange rate misalignment increases competitiveness of
imports
• MAFAP does not capture all forms of incentives as shown
by sustained production growth
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Mali, Ghana, Burkina Faso and Tanzania, 2005-2010
MAFAP allows for cross countries and cross sectors comparisons
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Commodity level analysis: Rice example MALI
TANZANIA GHANA
BURKINA FASO
-50.00%
0.00%
50.00%
100.00%
150.00%
200.00%
250.00%
300.00%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Observed nominal rate of protection at farm gate Adjusted nominal rate of protection at farm gate
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Observed nominal rate of protection at farm gate Adjusted nominal rate of protection at farm gate
-50.00%
-40.00%
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Observed nominal rate of protection at farm gate Adjusted nominal rate of protection at farm gate
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Dis
ince
nti
ve
s
I
nce
nti
ve
s
Observed NRP at farm gate Adjusted NRP at farm gate
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Commodity group level: Imports MALI (Rice, Milk)
-20%
30%
80%
130%
180%
230%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
EDM (MDG)
AVERAGE OBSERVED NRP FOR IMPORTED PRODUCTS
AVERAGE ADJUSTED NRP FOR IMPORTED PRODUCTS
TANZANIA (Sugar, Wheat, Rice, Milk)
Rice 80% of
indicator Inclusion of Milk
GHANA (Palm oil, Maize, Rice)
BURKINA FASO (Rice, cottonseed oil)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
EDM (MDG)
AVERAGE OBSERVED NRP FOR IMPORTED PRODUCTS
AVERAGE ADJUSTED NRP FOR IMPORTED PRODUCTS
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
EDM (MDG)
AVERAGE OBSERVED NRP FOR IMPORTED PRODUCTS
AVERAGE ADJUSTED NRP FOR IMPORTED PRODUCTS
-45%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
EDM
NRP OBSERVÉ MOYEN POUR LES PRODUITS IMPORTÉS
NRP AJUSTÉ MOYEN POUR LES PRODUITS IMPORTÉS
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-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
EDMAVERAGEOBSERVEDNRPFORTHEAGRICULTURALSECTORAVERAGEADJUSTEDNRPFORTHEAGRICULTURALSECTOR
MALI (8 commodities)
Agricultural sector level
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Disin
cent
ives
I
ncen
tives
EDM (MDG)
AVERAGE OBSERVED NRP FOR THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
AVERAGE ADJUSTED NRP FOR THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
TANZANIA (8 commodities)
BURKINA FASO (11 commodities)
GHANA (8 commodities)
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
EDM (MDG)
AVERAGE OBSERVED NRP FOR THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
AVERAGE ADJUSTED NRP FOR THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
EDM (MDG)
AVERAGE OBSERVED NRP FOR THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
AVERAGE ADJUSTED NRP FOR THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
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Public expenditure level
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11p
support to agriculture - budget allocations(% of total)
support to agriculture - actual spending(% of total)
Maputo declaration target
%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
depenses en faveur de l'agriculture - budget approuvé (% du total)
Dépenses en faveur de l'agriculture - dépenses effectives (% du total)
(% of total)
Objectf déclaration de Maputo
%
MALI
TANZANIA
BURKINA FASO
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
agriculture - budget allocation (% of total)
agriculture - actual spending (%of total)
Maputo declaration target
%
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Public expenditure composition MALI BURKINA FASO
TANZANIA
Payments to producers - input
subsidies
35%
Payments to producers - income
support
1%
Payments to consumers
1%Payments to processors
2%
Payments to traders
0%
Agricultural research
3%
Technical assistance
3%Training
10%
Extension1%
Inspection (veterinary/plant)
7%
Infrastructure21%
Storage/public stockholding
5%
Marketing10%
Other1%
Paiements aux producteurs -
subventions aux
intrants38%
Paiements aux producteurs -
autres
1%
Paiements aux consommateurs
10%Paiements aux
fournisseurs d'intrants
0%
Paiements aux transformateurs
1%
Recherche agricole6%
Assistance technique
1%
Formation15%
Vulgarisation3%
Inspection 1%
Infrastructure20%
Stockage0%
Commercialisation3%
Autres1%
Payments to producers - input
subsidies
39%
Payments to producers - other
1%
Pyments to processors
1%
Agricultural research
14%
Training24%
Extension7%
Inspection (veterinary/plant)
1%
Infrastructure1%
Storage2%
Marketing3%
Other7%
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Conclusions
• MAFAP a tool for evidence based policy making
• Useful to compare countries & commodities
(Quantitative indicators)
• Useful to identify investment gaps/ priorities
• Policy impacts
• Data intensive (quality + availability)