Moneysukh weekly market outlook report 22/3/2010

8/9/2019 Moneysukh weekly market outlook report 22/3/2010

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report For Private circulation Only For Our Clients Only

Mansukh Securities and Finance LtdOffice: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: [email protected]: www.moneysukh.com

SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 / NSE: INB23078143PMS Regn No. INP00000238

Sensex 17578 2.39%

Nifty 5263 2.45%

Gold(US$/oz) 1107.3 0.53%

Re/US$ 45.43 -0.02%

Dow 10,742 1.10%

Nasdaq 2,374 0.25%

FX Res (US$ Bn) 279.71 0.46%

Upto 19.03.10 FII DII

Total Mar 10 10,810 4,396

Total 2010 1,621 9,171S o urce : bs eindia.co m

Sectors Close %

Auto 7,629 0.75

Bankex 10,432 0.88

CD 4,193 1.20

CG 13,978 1.41

FMCG 2,808 0.45

Healthcare 5,198 2.72

IT 5,513 8.95

Metal 17,901 3.65

Oil & Gas 10,172 3.51

PSU 9,131 0.65

Realty 3,341 -1.39

Weekly Sector Movement

DATA MATRIX FOR THE WEEK

15th Mar 10 - 19th Mar 10

Net FII /DI I Equity Activity (Rs Cr)

Weekly Markets

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W EEK GON E BY

Encouraging Q4 March 2010 advance tax figures of top Indian firms, indicating good Q4 March 2

results, has boosted the bourses this week. The market has also witnessed a strong post-Budget r

driven by sustained buying by foreign funds since the presentation of the Union Budget 2010-2011 o

February 2010.FII inflow in March 2010 totaled Rs 14,021.70 crore, while the inflow in the calendar y

2010 totaled Rs 14,737.90 crore (till 17 March 2010). The sudden spurt in investment has been the m

driver for the recent rise in stock market. The BSE Sensex rose 411.61 points or 2.40% to 17,578.23 in

week ended Friday, 19 March 2010. The S&P CNX Nifty rose 125.8 points or 2.44% to 5262.80. The Mid-Cap index rose 63.22 points or 0.94% to 6,764.07. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 62.08 points or 0.

to 8,494.58. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (

rose 6.71%. The rally was triggered by expectations of good Q4 March 2010 results. As per the mar

buzz, RIL's Q4 advance tax surged to Rs 770 crore in Q4 March 2010 from Rs Rs 365 crore a year ago

stocks rose on positive economic data in the US, the biggest market for Indian IT firms. India's larg

software services exporter by sales Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) rose 2.94%. India's second lar

software services exporter by sales Infosys rose 3.84%. The stock hit a record high of Rs 2792.15

Thursday, 18 March 2010. Infosys' fourth quarter advance tax payment doubled.

Weekly Market Outlook - 20.03.2010

SNAPSHOT

The key benchmarks attained two month closing highs after moving in a tight range throughthe day. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) surged in late rally. IT and realty stocks fBut, PSU banks, auto and consumer durables stocks rose. Some side counters surged. The BSEshare Sensex rose 58.97 points or 0.34%, up close to 80 points from the day's low and off close topoints from the day's high. The market was volatile. The market edged higher in early trade

soon trimmed gains. The market surged again in morning trade, with the 50-unit S&P CNX Nhitting its highest level in two months. The market once gains trimmed gains. The marregained strength after hitting a fresh intraday low in morning trade. The market erased almthe entire intraday gains in mid-morning trade. It recovered later. The market slipped into the in afternoon trade. Stocks regained positive zone after hitting fresh intraday lows in afternotrade. The market pared gains after hitting a two-month high in late trade.

Volume & Volatility Index (NIFTY- March 2010)

0

50

100

150

200

8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 15-Mar 16-Mar 17-Mar 18-Mar 19-Mar

Volume (Rs Billion) Volatility %


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TREND LINE CONJECTURE:-

We have projected a horizontal line from the top of 5310-5320. We believe it should be a crucial level to watch as we expect it may be a crucial ressurrent rally. Trend line drawn from the highs of 6357 and 5310 currently shattered at this point of time however we may watch out for anotheronsecutive sessions for any bullish confirmation. We believe market should consolidate around these levels in upcoming sessions thouossibility of mild profit booking shouldnt be rule out. However any sustainable breakout above these levels could generate another 10-15% ret

n near term where traders are advised to book marginal profits for their long positions.

Moreover trend line drawn from the lows of 25398 and 4675 seems to be a vital support at this juncture. Also 200 DMA providing next leveupport to this trend line though we might see some sort of consolidation near 5100 in upcoming sessions.

ELLIOT WAVE CONJECTURE:-

Remember we have already determined 'X2' wave of this diametric formation shaped in benchmark indices with nearby target at around 1685revious sessions. Now with above the target levels, 'X2' wave continued to show strength however advance decline ratio displays laconviction around these levels. As we have assumed that we may be into 'C' wave of the A-B-C pattern from 177ince last Friday(26 Feb10), the Index has been forming 'HIGHER TOP' formation, which continues the optimistic preconceived notion. As in

A-B-C move, entire move from the lows of 15651 treated as a c leg, conceivably waiting 'Oct high of 17493 to be near term top decisively.Duth th

he nuts hell the perfidious w ave m arked as corrective 'B' w ave, 86% up-m ove originated 8047 (6 March'09) to 14931 (19 May '09) adageth

nflow s of only Rs.25000 crs. Since 19 May , the FII inflow s encompass explode by further Rs.62000 crs, in response to w hich, market m oved ba

6%.

st

eneath this bullish unusual composition, a Complex insider wave has been shaping from March lows in 2009. Within this, the 1 move ende7493 as a Diametric formation, and 2nd corrective move now seems to shaping from last week lows as domestic indices manages to past 17493he last day of 2009 though index unable to sustain these levels on closing basis.. Under this alternative, the 2nd counteractive move if i t possi

mostly a diagonal move, which can triggered the Sensex ahead of 17500. If it's a Diametric, the size of the 2nd corrective would be aboutst

months with a value target of 61.8% of the 1 corrective move mentioned earlier. This would gauge to19700 on Sensex (preferably in June-S010). Well let's wait and watch if Sensex remain constraint between 15330-17500 or goes in for a decisive surge above 17800 to reap new high010.




INDEX - TECHNICAL STAN D POIN T

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Weekly Market Outlook

INDEX Value Chg

NIFTYMar Fut 5270 2.4%

Apr Fut 5272 2.5%

Mar OI 22058050 -12.3%

Apr OI 6926100 224.0%

BANK NIFTY

Mar Fut 9272 1.0%

Apr Fut 9273 1.2%

Mar OI 1138800 6.3%

Apr OI 107750 297.6%

CNX IT

Mar Fut 6156 3.2%

Mar OI 44200 51.4%

Index Composition

Date 19.03.10


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MOVING AVERAGES AND THE CANDLE STICK PATTERN:

The short term moving average is an indicator of the trend in the near future. The value for the short term moving average (20 DMA) is at 5058 medium term moving average (50 DMA) is at 5018. Presently, the Nifty trading above its all the tree moving averages (20,50,200) which convtill a positive signal in near term.



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N i ft y F u t Ch a r t

B A N K N I F T Y F UT

RETRACEMENT AND GAP CONJECTURE:-

As marked on the chart above, on 24Aug 09, Sensex formed a gap up of 122 points ( market as GG)which might be an exhaustive one, having upand lower values of 15,362 and 15,240 respectively. As per Japanese candle stick theory, any gap is an incitement for bulls/bears to get t

positions in order to fill such gaps. As this gap was created on last to last August, the Sensex has already consumed more than 60 trading sessiand the gap has not filled yet. Unless this gap is filled, the Sensex will continue to move in upward trajectory in near term.

RETRACEMENT COUNTER RETRACEMENT

HIGHS LOWS POINTS DAYS LOWS HIGHS POINTS DAYS

15600 13320 2280 21 13320 16002 2682 14

16002 14684 1318 11 14684 15958 1274 7

15958 15357 601 5 15357 16435 1078 3

Analyzing above table we scrutinize that there is continuous faster retracement taking place in the Sensex, which is an optimistic signal. There three downward moves.

The move from 15,600 to 13,220 took 21 days and it got retraced in 14 days.

The move from 16,002 to 14,684 took 11 days and it almost got retraced in 7 days.The move from 15,958 to 15,357 took 5 days and it got fully retraced in just 3 days.

IBONACCI RETRACEMENT:-Entire move from the highs of 17712 to 15651 exactly took 13 trading sessions while its retracement move also took 13 trading sessions to its 8evel at around 17060. On technical grounds we might see some consolidation in upcoming sessions though possibilty of mild profit bookhouldnt be rule out. Above these levels next resistence zone would be between 17520-17800-18190. Moreover such pull backs usually countey small corrections. Hence we expect 16500 should act as a major support zone on lower side.



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OSCILLATORS:



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N i ft y F u t Ch a r t

B A N K N I F T Y F UT

OSCILLATORS CURRENT AVERAGE

MACD (E9,E24,S9) 79.13 55.23

RSI (14,E9) 73.74 68.29

STOCHASTICS %K= 89.67 %D= 85.69

INAL VERDICT:

Remember we have said that breakout above the Neckline of the suspected H&S formation has been proving elusive for the time being. Thiseen mainly due to lack of conviction shown by reduction in volumes. Also after clocking the highest-ever volume on the second day after electesults, we have seen volumes consistently lying in downward arena. Moreover Union Budget 2010-11 is having thrust on Infrastructure, boosnvestors community a lot. We believe in medium to long term domestic indices seems to be highly promising for 40% to 60% return at current levhough global sentiments still a cause of concern. In the short term markets seems to be typically range bound to 4650-5370 with cautiouptimistic approach. Hence any correction in near term should be used a decent opportunity to go long.

However at its highest levels of 5230 and above 17500 on Sensex, P/E ratio has reached to 22+, which is the maximum figure under normircumstances. Only foams can push it higher towards 27-28. Such fizz happened during 2000 and 2008, which were 8 year cyclical tops. Moreourrent move by FED by increasing Discount rate may be an alarm for FII's. Hence clients are advised to trade accordingly with extremely cautiiew. On the positive side if we totally rely on the current rally and consider 2008 a retracement year, we might see key benchmark indices to cr

ts previous highs of 2008 very soon. With such scenario we may witnessed a long term consolidation (similar in 1992-2003) however srobability looks sluggish at this point of time.




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Technicals

SCRIP ABIRLANUVO CMP 879.4

Recommendation BUY Buy Price Near 870-880

Trend BULLISH Stop Loss Below 850

MACD Buy mode First Target 910

ROC Buy mode Second Target 925

RSI Buy mode Time Frame Week

50 Days SMA 871

200 Days SMA 892.38

SCRIP GRASIM IND CMP 2914

Recommendation BUY Buy Price Near 2850-2900

Trend BULLISH Stop Loss Below 2750

MACD Buy mode First Target 3050

ROC Buy mode Second Target 3150

RSI Buy mode Time Frame Week

50 Days SMA 2731

200 Days SMA 2545

SCRIP GODREJ IND CMP 147.7

Recommendation SELL Buy Price Near 148-150

Trend BEARISH Stop Loss Above 155

MACD SELL mode First Target 143

ROC SELL mode Second Target 140

RSI SELL mode Time Frame Week

50 Days SMA 155

200 Days SMA 167

This stock is looking bullish as it is making higher top and higher bottomformation after getting support at 780-790 level .Currently this stock has brokenstiff resistance level around 860-870 and tends to move in upward trajectory withnearby targets at Rs 925.Currenty this stock is trading above the moving averages(20 DSMA and 50 DSMA) and the technical indicators RSI and MACD showsbullish momentum in near term. Hence we recomend BUY strategy in this stock.

This stock shows strength as it is continued bullish trend after getting support at2050-2100 levels for previous weeks sessions. Currently stock has showntremendous support around 2850-2900 level and trading above all the threemoving averages 20 DSMA, 50 DSMA and 200 DSMA with all the dailyindicators i.e. MACD and RSI seems to be in bullish shape. Hence werecommend 'BUY' strategy in this stock for the price target of 3050-3150 in nearterm.

This stock is undoubtedly in a prolong downtrend and facing alot of resistance inthe range of 215-220. If the market will correct on profit booking concern the stockwill easily meet its target. Currently, this stocks price is below both the movingaverage 50 DEMA & 100 DEMA. All the Daily indicators ROC, RSI and MACDare looking bearish.



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3rd 2nd 1st 1st 2nd 3rd

ACC 861 913 945 977.85 997 1017 1069 + ive

B H E L 2308 2344 2358 2372.8 2394 2416 2452 Neutral

Bharti Airtel 282 295 304 311.85 317 321 334 + ive

DLF 298 306 309 312.7 318 322 330 Neutral

Grasim Inds 2837 2876 2895 2913.95 2933 2953 2991 + ive

H D F C 2617 2659 2676 2693.05 2718 2743 2785 + ive

HDFC Bank 1755 1784 1801 1818.2 1830 1842 1871 + ive

Hero Honda Motor 1864 1911 1940 1968.4 1987 2005 2052 + ive

Hind. Unilever 217 222 225 228.55 231 233 238 Neutral

Hindalco Inds. 169 172 174 175.5 178 180 183 Neutral

ICICI Bank 925 941 948 954.85 964 973 989 Neutral

Infosys Tech. 2721 2748 2762 2775.1 2789 2803 2831 + ive

IT C 253 257 259 260.45 263 265 269 Neutral

JP Associates 149 151 152 153.4 155 156 158 + ive

Larsen & Toubro 1578 1598 1610 1620.7 1630 1639 1660 + ive

M & M 1031 1054 1064 1073.3 1087 1100 1123 Neutral

Maruti S uzuki 1400 1414 1421 1429 1435 1442 1456 Neutral

NTPC 198 200 202 202.75 204 204 206 NeutralO N G C 1017 1036 1046 1056.05 1066 1076 1096 - ive

Rel. Comm. 160 163 165 167.65 169 170 174 + ive

Reliance Inds. 1035 1060 1075 1089.8 1100 1110 1135 + ive

Reliance Infra. 984 1003 1014 1024.15 1032 1041 1059 + ive

St Bk of India 1995 2025 2042 2058.5 2071 2083 2112 + ive

Sterlite Inds. 793 810 818 825.15 834 844 860 Neutral

Sun Pharma. 1640 1665 1681 1696.2 1706 1715 1740 Neutral

Tata Motors 762 772 778 783.7 788 793 803 Neutral

Tata Power Co. 1304 1331 1344 1357.05 1371 1385 1412 Neutral

Tata Steel 626 634 639 643.65 647 650 658 + ive

TCS 787 805 813 820.2 831 842 860 Neutral

Wipro 707 718 722 725.95 733 739 750 Neutral

SUPPORT CLOSE PRICE

19.03.10

RESISTANCE

SENSEX 30-TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK ENDED 26th March 2010

INCLINATIOSCRIP



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3rd 2nd 1st 1st 2nd 3rd

Allahabad Bank 139 141 142 142.8 144 145 147 6379

Andhra Bank 96 99 100 100.5 102 103 106 4874

Ashok Leyland 51 53 53 54.05 55 55 56 7190

Aurobindo Pharma 909 925 932 938.4 948 957 973 5229

CESC 372 386 391 396.35 405 413 427 4952

Cummins India 454 476 488 499.2 509 520 541 9884

Divi's Lab. 608 621 626 630.85 639 647 660 8264

Educomp Sol. 746 758 763 767.95 774 781 792 7292

GVK Power Infra. 40 42 42 42.75 44 44 46 6751

IDBI Bank 115 116 117 118.05 119 120 122 8557

Indian Bank 166 168 169 170.05 171 172 174 7308

Indian Hotels 98 101 102 103.35 105 107 110 7477

JSW Steel 1210 1226 1234 1242.5 1251 1260 1277 23241

Lanco I nfratech 50 52 52 53 54 55 56 12761

Lupin 1573 1593 1601 1609.7 1621 1633 1653 14315

MphasiS 645 658 663 667.6 675 683 695 14000

Oracle Fin.Serv. 2227 2277 2299 2320.3 2348 2377 2426 19453

Petronet LNG 74 76 77 77.75 79 80 83 5831

Piramal Health 390 402 407 411.95 419 426 438 8610

Punj Lloyd 167 171 172 173.9 176 178 181 5774

Rel.Nat.Resour. 62 63 63 63.65 64 65 66 10395

S C I 152 156 157 158.85 161 163 166 6727

Tata Chemicals 300 304 306 308.05 311 314 318 7494

Tata Tea 925 938 945 951.05 958 964 977 5881

Tech Mahindra 884 896 902 907 915 922 935 11094

Titan Inds. 1761 1794 1809 1823.9 1842 1861 1894 8096

UltraTech Cem. 1066 1091 1106 1121.6 1131 1141 1165 13963

United Phosp. 151 154 155 156.1 157 159 161 6861

Voltas 164 168 170 172.95 175 176 180 5723

Welsp.Guj.Stahl 262 271 277 283.05 287 290 300 5775

SUPPORT CLOSE PRICE

19.03.10

RESISTANCE

NSE MIDCAP 30-TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK ENDED 26th March 201

Market Ca

(Rs Crore)SCRIP



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This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you.Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd (hereinafter referred as MSFL) is not soliciting any action based on it. This report is not for public distributionand has been furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any person in any form.The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. MSFL or any of its affiliatesor employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the informationcontained in this report. MSFL or any of its affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind,regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particularpurpose, and non-infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations.MSFL and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. Thisinformation is subject to change without any prior notice. MSFL reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as maybe required from time to time. Nevertheless, MSFL is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendations to its clients, andwould be happy to provide information in response to specific client queries.

Mansukh Securities and Finance LtdOffice: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: [email protected] b it kh


Total No . o f Cal l s Targe t Achi eved Pro f i t Booked Pos it i onal/Ho ld Ex i t/Stop Loss Success Rat

53 9 26 8 10 77.78%

EQUITY CALLS PERFORMANCE FOR WEEK ENDED 12th M ar 2010

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Research Desk Phone: 011-30211872/ 73 Email: [email protected]

NAME DESIGNATION E-MAIL

Varun Gupta Head - Research [email protected]

Pashupati Nath Jha Research Analyst [email protected]

Ajay Lakra Research Analyst [email protected]

Vikram Singh Research Analyst [email protected]


Moneysukh weekly market outlook report 22/3/2010

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