Money Navigator January 2016

7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 1/361st J anuary-2016 to 31st January-2016 www.jhaveritrade.co

F o r P r i v a t e C i r c u l a t i o n O n l y

Issue ThemePg. 1-2

C Y 2 0 1 6

S toc k P ic ker’ s

Mar ke t

Company AnalysisPg. 10-13

Value BuPg. 17-19

V ALU E B U Y

Inspite of better macros in India, investors should get ready for a roller coaster ride in CY2016, after a year consolidation in CY2015, mainly due to external global uncertainties including China and volatile crude oil priceHowever, we believe that if investors play smartly, they can build portfolio for future. Investor should also focus oquality IPOs in CY2016.

CY2 16

CY2016Stock Picker’s Market

Stock Picker ’s Marke

CY :- Calendar Ye


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From The MD’s Desk

CY2015 was a remarkable year for global and domestic market as market has seen many unpredictable/unsual trends and

eventswhichhadnotoccurredearlier.

It will bevery interestingto knowthe major events inCY2016 and the trendsof the market. The key events tohappen in India

willbe:

• Budgetin FebruaryCy2016

• Any positivedevelopment inGST Bill and other important reforms toberolled out

• The preparationAssemblyElection inUP2017

• Positive monetraypolicydevelopment

• SouthWest Monsoon

Globally, alleyeswillbe focused on :

• The Fed rate hike in CY2016 (as the Fed has said that the decision to hike the rate will be largely on economic data

dependent. The economic and employment data which will be released from January to March will be very important to

judge the next rate hike by Fed in Cy2016)• Development inEurozoneand the bondbuying program byECB

• PeoplesBank ofChina and its policydecision for China

Any rate hike by Fed in the H1CY16 will have negative effects on emerging market currencies and capital market. Any

appreciationof USD will make India a less attractive investment destination.

However, as faras emerging economiesareconcerned, India remains thefavoriteeconomy amongst FIIs. Webelieve that it

will be very important for Indian market to have reasonable fund allocation by FIIs in CY2016. Surprisingly, the

unprecedented andpleasant eventsprompted DIIS andRetailersto invest four timesmore than their counterpartsFIIs inCY

2015.

It is expected that to remain attractive at global level : 1) The commodity and oil prices should remain at reasonable level

during CY2016. This will ensure low inflation and comfortable Current Account situation. 2) The growth in world economy

should improve to ensure rise in export from India 3) Corporate Earnings should start to improve from here on. 4) Mega

investmentsmade byGovernment in Infrastructure / Railway projects in last oneyear will start yielding results from here on.

Considering the above domestic factors and the global events, we should remain cautiously optimistic for the market. We

believe that theinvestment mantrawill be stock-picker’s market forCY2016.

The investment guru Peter Lynch once said that “ I f you spent thirteen minutes a year on economics, you wasted

ten minutes. We can never know what is going on. So we are bet ter off investing our energy into researching

individual stocks” . Peter Lynch had managed Fideli ty’s Equity Fund for thirteen years and generated returns of

2639% over the period.

Technically, any decisive rise above 7950-7970 range will take the market beyond 8000-8200. Any fall below 7850 – 7790

will have negative impacton themarket.

Kamlesh Jhaveri ( MD )

Jhaveri Securities Ltd.

CY 2016 : A Challenging Year for Global Market




I s s u e T h e m e

C Y 2 0 1 6


Mar ke t CY2016 - Stock Picker’s Market

1

US Fed rate hike and Indian market

Winter Session of parliament : A repeat of Monsoon session

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points taking the first step away from its near-zero interestrate policy and signaling a “gradual” pace of rate hikes to come in CY16 on account of improvement in the labor market

and other macro economic factors but inflation is yet to return to target level of 2%. This is the first hike in nine years

and sends positive signal about the revival in the world’s largest economy, which would have a corresponding positive

impact on the rest of the world.

Historically, the impact of rate hikes in the US on Emerging Market equities has been mixed and ultimately dependent

on the circumstances at the time.

Although, the past two tightening cycles led to net capital inflows into EMs. While the rate hike does not directly impact

equity fundamentals in India, the implications for equity markets flow through the sentiment and foreign portfolio flowschannel. In this regard India as a significant member of emerging market equities basket will react on the basis of

perceptions for overall Ems.

All in all, Lok Sabha passed 13 Bills while Rajya Sabha passed just 9 Bills in the 20-day winter session, but none of

these were large-ticket Bills. The Bills which were passed included Negotiable Instruments Bill, The Scheduled Castes

and Scheduled Tribes Amendment Bill and The Juvenile Justice (Care and Protection of Children) Bill.

If Lalit Modi controversy and Vyapam scam washed out the Monsoon Session, the Winter Session was washed with

allegations and counter-allegations on issues ranging from ‘intolerance debate’ to ‘National Herald' allegations andothers. Parliament’s winter session is a big disappointment and largely a repeat of Monsoon Session in the context of

passage of critical reforms Bills such as GST Bill, which the country desperately needs to progress.

Clearly, the time is running out for new government to make major reforms happen in the economy. The promised

reforms agenda of BJP government is yet to take place in a major way. Beyond FDI liberalization in a few sectors and

some minor incremental reforms, Modi hasn’t managed to introduce any big-ticket reforms yet.

* Source : Live Mint, U3&6 is special measurement of employment in US

CPI Inflation

CPI Core

Indicators

3.80%

2.30%

2008 Latest date as of

0%

2%

Nov

Nov

Unemployment Rate

Official U-3

U6

7.40%

10.80%

5%

9.90%

Nov

Nov

Select US Macroeconomic Indicators

Indicators 2008 Latest date as of

Median Income ($)

Capacity Utilization

Industrial Production

Credit Card Debt ($ Bn)

Total Consumer Credit ($ Bn)

55,313.00

84%

-10.80%

1004

2650

53,657.00

77%

-1.20%

910

3423

2014

Nov

Nov

Q2 2015

Q2 2015




C Y 2 0 1 6


Mar ke t

2

CY2016 - Stock Picker’s Market

Support from DIIs on weak FII inflows

CY2016wi ll be a year for stock specific market

Conclusion

With inflows in Mutual Funds scheme, DIIs have invested` 69277.5 Cr. in equity, which was approximately over 3 folds

higher than ` 23842.7 Cr. invested in the previous year. The fall in equity market in recent even sharper if buying from

domestic investors’ ,who infused freshcash flowing in from retail investors,did notcome.

Reasons like subdued earnings growth, weak currency, monsoon woes, rise in crude oil prices, slow reform process, tax

concerns (MAT) and better performance of other emerging markets are responsible behind foreign out flows. Foreign

investors have registered their lowest net buying in Indian equities market in last four years. In 2015, year-to-date, the FIIs

have beennet buyers in equities to the tune of ` 36395.71 Cr. which is 58% lower than the year earlier when they had been

net buyers inequities to the tuneof ̀ 86668.59Cr. ( $14392.19 million) in2014( See Macro EconomicUpdateonpage21. )

However, India is betterplaced than most of itspeers because its external balances have significantly improved since mid-

2013. India is less dependent than several of its peers on commodity exports. Only a small part of India’s sovereign debt isheld by foreigners or is denominated in foreign currency. India’s favorable economic growth outlook makes India relatively

attractive forforeign investorssooneror later.

As far as the current domestic economic situation is concerned , the economy is suffering from serious cyclical and structural

issues. There is an enormous amount of surplus manufacturing capacity, close to 30% according to RBI. Many

infrastructure projects remain stalled. Corporate earnings have stagnated for two years and investors are getting tired of

waiting for faster growth in earnings per share. Exports have also shrunk, month by month. Public sector banks are in

collective trouble, with a vast amountof stickydebt on their balance sheets.

On political front also, some disillusionment with the government/ruling party and not much confidence in their ability toacceleratethepace ofgrowth.

Adecent Budget, a good monsoon, an improvement in consumption demand and an upstick in global growthcould all help to

turn things around. However, sentiment is now a great deal worse than a year before and sentiment is unlikely to fully

recover ina hurry.

The new year brings fresh hope. US seems poised to lead a global economic recovery. Government finances are strong

enough to push critical infrastructure projects. Hopefully, the economy will see productivity gains that can improve the

competitivenessof exporters.

We believe that CY2015 remained a year of consolidation for Indian equity market (Nifty performed -5% on YTD basis and

–13% from its life time high ), after solid performance in CY2014, as global uncertainty along with weak corporate earnings

weigh on the market. Globally, Fed rate hike is long term positive for global markets.As far as market is concerned, there is

no near term trigger for the market except Q3 results (which expect to remain better on weak base ) and hype of budget

expectation. In CY2016, we wish the hope meets with the reality and the corporate earnings fulfill the expectations of the

investorswhohave built position well in advance on expectationof economic revival.Technically, Niftyhasstrongsupport of

7800-7880 and resistanceof 7980-8010.




S e c t o r U p d a t e

Indian Plastic Sector

Overview

Plastic Industry has direct correlation with GDPgrowth

Low per capitaconsumption provideenough growth opportunity

The most commonly used polymers (commonly referred to as plastics) are high-density polyethylene (HDPE), low-densitypolyethylene (LDPE), linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE), polypropylene (PP), poly vinyl chloride (PVC) and

polystyrene(PS).

The plastic industry is one of the biggest contributors to India’s GDP and is among the fastest-growing sectors in India.

Plastic consumption has grown primarily due to the progressive substitution of traditional materials with plastic variants,

expansionof themiddle-classandtheemergenceofnumerousnewapplications.

The Indian plastic industry is highly fragmented with more than 25,000 processors among whom less than 100 large

processors account fora cumulative 30%shareof theindustry.

Organizedplayershave outpaced fledging ones through constant innovationand niche product launches. The entirechain

in the plastics industry can be classified into manufacturingof polymers and is called upstream and conversion of polymers

into plastic articlesand isknownasdownstream.

The growth of India’s polymer market enjoys a high correlation with the country’s GDP growth. In the last five years, the

growth in country’s per capita plastics consumption outpaced the GDP growth, making India among the world’s fastest

growing polymer market. The industry has expanded at around 8% CAGR over the last five years to reach about 8.5 million

Tonnesperannum(MTPA) in 2013 from sixMTPAin 2008.

On the basis of value added, the share of India’s plastic products industry is about 0.5% of India’s GDP. Typically, in an

emerging market, demand growth for plastics is 2 to 2.5 times the GDP growth. In India, the growth at times was lower than

theGDPgrowth till 2008.Thisgot correctedfacilitated by investment-inducing policies.

According to the Central Institute of Plastics Engineering and Technology, the Indian plastics industry is yet to realize its full

potential. The low level of per capita plastics consumption in India is indicative of the massive growth potential of the

industry.

Comparedwithper capitaconsumption of plastics in the USat 109 kgand China at 45kg, India at 9.7 kg isstill in the nascent

stage. US consumption has reached saturation level, while China’s higher levels of consumption are primarily due to

exports of various plastics-basedproducts.Indiahastheadvantageofhighpopulation andis expected tomaintain high

3

Outlook: Positive

Kg / Person 109 65 45 9.7 32

Per Capita Plastic Products Consumption

Country USA Europe China India Brazil




Indian Plastic Industry : Innovative products, Government Spending on infrastructure and

realty development will drive thegrowth

Increased investment in infrastructure and affordable housing, urbanization and increased consumption of packaged and

white goods will boost demand. Sustained lower oil prices will also improve the cost competitiveness of Asian polymer

producers and delays in incremental Chinese capacity, too, may support the margins. Positive domestic growth trend as

witnessed in the last quarter is likely tocontinueacrossall majorend-use sectors.Polymer demand growth in India was upa

robust12% in H1of FY2016. Sustained loweroilpricesto improve thecost competitivenessofAsianpolymerproducers.


4

Source: Company, JSL Research

Plastic Products(By Processes)

Extrusion Injection

MoldingBlow

Molding

Drums,Bottles,

Containers

Moulded,Luggage,

Bottle Caps,Toys

Uses: Pipes,Coated Paper,

Films &Sheets

68%(Domestic

Consumption)

27%(Domestic

Consumption)

5%(Domestic

Consumption)

economic growth. This should propel India’s plastics

consumption to new levels in the coming years. Despite thestrong growth over the last few decades, the domestic market

remains under-penetrated compared with other Asian

developing countries. Current polymer capacities are mostly

under-utilized, with an operating efficiency varying from 66%-

86%, except for PVC, whose production matches with capacity.

Indian plastic processing industry to attract investments

accumulating toUS$10billionover thenext five years

According to industry body Plastics Processors of India, theprocessing sector is expected to grow by 13% in 2016 and is

likely to attract investments accumulating to US$10 billion over

the next five years. Estimates suggest that the Indian plastics

industry will need close to two to three million people by 2020 to

manage thegrowing volumes.

According to the Ministry of State for Chemicals and Fertilizers, the Indian plastics processing industry is expected to grow

by more than 50% to reach ` 1,37,000 Cr. by 2017-18 (from about Rs. 90000 Cr. at the end of FY 2014).This growth will be

propelled by a growth in end-user industries, greater penetration of plastics in various existing applications and an ever

growing rangeof applications.

The Indian plastic industry has set a 20-20-20 vision. It is expected that plastic processing in India might reach the 20 MTPA

by2020 from thecurrent 8.5MTPA.

% 10 12 45 29 1 4

Sector ViseConsumption of PVC

SeweragePlumbing Irrigation Water Supply Others Flexibles






5

Lower RM Prices, high margin

1)Supreme Industries Ltd

2)Nilkamal Ltd.

The weakness inpolymerprices isexpected toextendwellover2016asglobal demandstays weakand this will improve the

profit margins of plastic good makers.Prices of olefins, a group of hydrocarbon compounds, that are building blocks for

many petrochemicals,were lower inOctober 2015.

Ethylene prices fell 35.7% over the yearbut rose15.5% over the month in October 2015 toUS$ 907 per tonne. HDPEprices

were down 23.5% over the year but rose 1.4% over the month to US$ 1189 per tonne. LDPE prices decreased 21.6% over

the yearbut rose1.4%over the month toUS$ 1202per tonne.

The weakness in polymer prices is expected to extend well over 2016 as global demand stays weak. This will improve the

profitmargins of plastic good makerssuch as Supreme Industries, Finolex Industries andNilkamal.The trend is positive for

companieswhichsell branded plasticproductsdirectly toconsumers.

Key Risks : Restrictions on plastic packaging will adversely affect thegrowthof several industries such as FMCG and food

processing

Preferred Stocks

Supreme Industries (SI) is a plastic product manufacturerandthelargest plastic processor in India,processing over 0.28mn

MT annually. Company has four business vertical i.e. Plastic Piping (52%), Packaging Products (21%), Industrial Products

(19%)andConsumerProducts(8%).SIhas22manufacturing plantssituatedacrossIndia.

Company enjoys a significant market share across its business verticals; Plastic Piping (9.48%), Industrial Products (15%)

and Consumer Products (13%). Supreme Industries is the market leader in the Packaging Products segments like XLPE

(50%), EPE Foam (36%), Cap Cell (30%) andAir Bubble Film (18%). SI’ssalesand PAT have grown at a CAGR 17.8% and

29.2%respectively between FY08-15.

NILK is a market leader in the Material Handling segment, backed by its ability to directly reach a very diverse set of

industrialcustomersthrough 400+ self-employed salespeopleoperating from 50+regional sales officesacrossIndia.

The Moulded Furniture segment of the company enjoys a ~39% market share in its category. NILK has 26 small format

stores along with a strong network of 40+ depots and 1000+ channel partners on a pan India basis, thus enabling it to serve

the remotest rural markets. Its retail store chain “@home”, operates 18 stores across 13 cities covering a retail space of

over3.15 lakhsq. ft.

Supreme Inds.

CompanyName

Nilkamal Ltd

FV (`) CMP

(`) P/E (x) P/BV(x) D/E Ratio (x) ROCE (%) RONW (%) EBITDA (%) CFO (` in Cr)

2

10

668

1260

27.48

66.18

7.01

3.58

0.38

0.53

33.91

12.67

27.71

10.13

14.19

7.98

600.82

150.16

Inputs from Capital Market Magazine , JSL Research , FY15 Figures, CMP @ 23/12/2015




Overview : Size and Structure

Structureof the healthcaredelivery industry

The healthcare delivery industry in India consists of a range of medical practitioners, beginning with grassroots levelphysicians practicing traditional or indigenousforms of medicine (such as Ayurveda), independent practitioners with clinics

of varying sizes andcapabilities,andhospitals that aremulti-disciplinary or specialty focused. Theavailability of specialized

healthcareservices is largelydemographydriven.

CRISIL estimates the size of the Indian healthcare delivery industry at 3,400 million treatments in volume terms and ` 3.8

trillion in valueterms in the year 2014-15. The healthcaredelivery industry in India is estimated to have grown at a CAGR of

approximately 14-15%in value termsover thelast five years.

CRISILexpects the healthcaredeliverymarket togrow at a CAGRof 12.00% and reach ` 6.8 trillion by theyear 2019-2020,

drivenbypopulation growth, rising incomelevels, andincrease in lifestyle-relateddiseases,amongst other factors.

Hospitals can be broadly classified on the basis of the services offered, complexity of ailments treated, and the ownership

model

Revenueand cost structure of HospitalsRevenue Part

Theprimary revenue streams forhospitalsare the IPD andOPD. IPD accounts forapproximately 81.00%of thehealthcare

delivery industry, or ̀ 3.1trillion, in2014-15,while OPD accounts forthe remaining19.00%, or ` 0.7 trillion.While surgeries account for a large portion of revenues for most hospitals, the share of different verticals in total revenues

differs across hospitals, depending on pricing strategies and the emphasis on different specialties. In certain hospitals,

facilities likediagnosticcenters andpharmaciesareoutsourced.

Cost PartInaddition to theoperatingexpenditure that hospitals incur, a keycost factorin a hospital is theinitial capital outlayrequired,

Indian Health Care Delivery Industry

6

Outlook: Positive

Complexity of AilmentTypes of Services Ownership

Primary Care

Secondary Care

General Hospital

Speciality Hospital

Tertiary Care

Quaternary Care

Primary Care

Secondary Care

Tertiary Care

Government-owned & managed

Privately/ Trust - owned & managed

Trust-owned but managed by a

private party

Owned by a private player and

managed by another private player

Hospitals





7


particularly for land andbuilding development andequipment. Thecapital cost to build a hospital is typically ` 7-8million per

bed.While costs for secondary-care hospitals are lower, high technology and equipment costs keep total capital costs for super

specialty tertiarycare hospitalsat thehigherend. The useof importedequipmentcanfurther driveupequipmentcosts.

Potential to increasebed capacities

India's overall bed density is approximately 7 per 10,000 population below the global median of 27 beds as well as that of

otherdeveloping nations such asBrazil, Malaysia,Vietnam,and Indonesia.

According to WHO's Global Healthcare Expenditure Database, India's total expenditure on healthcare was 4.00% of the

GDP in 2013. The per capita government expenditure on healthcare (at international dollar rate adjusted for PPP) in 2013

was USD 69 in India compared to USD 4,307 in the US, USD 2,766 in the UK, USD 701 in Brazil, and USD 514 in Malaysia.

Lower per capita spend on healthcare in India can also be partially attributed to the relatively low contribution from the

government.

India'spopulation is expected togrow toover 1.42 billionby 2026, from approximately 1.21 billion in 2011. At 7 beds per 10,000 persons, the number of beds in India significantly lags the global median of 27 beds, indicating a

shortfall of nearly2.5millionbeds compared to thecurrent globalmedian.The growthopportunity for thehealthcare delivery

market in India, therefore, is immense

Key Growth Drivers

Government spending on healthcare continues to remain low, allowing private sector to

increasepresence

Increasing population as well as life expectancy to requiregreater health coverage

Rising income levels to makequality healthcareservices more affordable

Hospital Beds

( Per 10,000 Population)

Sector ViseConsumption of PVC Russia China UK USA Brazil Thailand Indonesia India

97 38 29 29 23 21 9 7

Total Healthcare Expendi ture as % of GDP

USA Brazil UK Russia Vietnam China Thailand Malaysia India

3.104.004.605.606.006.50

9.109.70

17.10




Even though healthcare is considered as non-discretionary expense, affordability of quality healthcare facilities remains a

majorconstraint withan estimated 59.00%of households in India having an annual incomeof less than `0.2 million in 2013-14. Growth in household income, and consequently, disposable incomes, is critical to the overall demand growth of the

healthcaredelivery industry in India.

According to CRISIL research the immense opportunity in the industry can be understand from the fact that the share of

households falling in the income bracket of ̀ 0.2-0.5 millionp.a. is expected to increase to 37.50% in 2017-18 from 28.00%

in 2013-14.

Lifestyle-related, NCD exhibit a tendency to increase in tandem with rising income levels. With households earningsexpected to increase, the share of NCDs as a major cause of deaths in India is expected to rise. Consequently, demand for

healthcare services associated with liferelated diseases, such cardiac ailments, oncology anddiabetes, is also expected to

increase.

Fortis Healthcare

Focuson improvingitsprofitabilityboth in thehospitalsandthediagnosticssegments.

Trendofdouble-digitgrowthin average revenue peroperatingbedhasstarted.

Improvedmargin on diagnosticsegment.

Apol lo Hospi tals

Endof current investment cycle leads toa recovery in margins andreturnoncapital employed.

Added 1,300 beds over the past two years and it is planning to add 895 beds by the end of FY16E.

25%annualgrowthin operatingprofitover FY15-18E leads tomarginexpansionof 100bpsto15.20%.

Demand for Non Communicable Diseases (NCD) related healthcare services to increase over

thenext fiveyears

Preferred Stocks


8

Outlook: Positive

Year

Communicable Diseases

Cardiovascular Diseases

Cancer

Other Non Communicable Diseases

Others

2008 2015P 2030P

32

9

28

19

12

25

11

31

21

12

14

15

35

24

12

Year 2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E

Company Net Sales ( ` in Cr.) EBITDA ( ` in Cr.) Net Profit ( ` in Cr.)

App oll o Hospit als 5178 6321 7552 784 869 1050 339 395 491

YoY Growth (%) 18.10 22.10 19.50 13.10 6.40 20.90 7.30 16.50 24.10

Fortis Health Care 4041 4607 5399 226 300 467 -118 122 238

YoY Growth (%) 13.6 14 17.2 5.8 32.6 55.4 Loss Loss to

Profit 95.4

Source : NHL RHP, JSL Research

Causes of Death in India (%)



Invest small, Dream Big

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Garware - Wall Ropes Ltd.

www.jhaveritrade.com10

“Buy” CMP : ` 425 TGT : ` 550Company Basics

BSE ID

NSE Symbol

Group

EQUITY (` in Cr.)

MKT.CAP(` in Cr.)

509557

GARWALLROP

B

21.88

866.53

Financial Basics

FV ( )

EPS ( ) (TTM)

P/E (x) (TTM)

P/BV (x) (TTM)

BETA

RONW (%)

`

`

10.00

19.17

20.66

2.80

1.0730

14.72

Investment Rationale

Share Holding Pattern

Holder's Name

Foreign

Institutions

Promoters

Govt. Holding

Public & Others

Non PromoterCorp. Hold.

% Holding

1.912.26

50.59

0.00

39.11

6.14

ROI : 30%

Valuations

GARWALLROP is trading at `425.We recommend “Buy” with targetpr ice of `550, valuing stock20xFY18E EPS of `27.47.The stockcurrentlytrades at 22.27xof FY16E,18.56x of FY17E and 15.47x of FY18E.

Investment Horizon : 12 to 15 Months

Company Overview

Indian Technical Textile Industry

Strong products portfolio with wide rangeof end users

Garware-WallRopes Ltd. (GWRL), is oneof India's leading players inTechnicalTextiles

with customers and end-users across the world. The company provides application-

focused solutions for various sectors including Deep Sea Fishing, Aquaculture,

Shipping,Agriculture,Sports, Infrastructure, Defence andTransportation.

The company has three integrated manufacturing facilities in Pune, Wai and Silvassa,

where a range of products are produced such as 1) Ropes 2) Nets and Aquaculture

Cages for capturing and breeding fish 3) Nets for Sports such as Tennis and Soccer 4)Insect and Shade Nets for high-value Agriculture 5) Coated Fabrics for Covers, Tarps,

Tents 6) products and solutions for water management, waste management and

erosion-control applications.

Technical Textile sector is one of the most innovative branch of the industry in the world

ranking as one of the five high tech sectors with the greatest potential for

development. The success of technical textiles is primarily due to the creativity,

innovationandversatility in fibers, yarnsandwoven/knitted/non wovenfabrics

Technical textiles are textile materials and products used for their technical

performance and functional properties. Technical textiles are an important part of the

textile industryanditspotential isstill largely untapped in India.

With the increase in disposable income, the consumption of technical textiles is

expected to increase.

Based on past trends of growth and estimated end user segment growth, the Working

Group on Technical Textiles for 12th Five Year Plan (FYP) projected the market size to

reach `

1,58,540 Cr. by 2016-17 at a year-on-year growth rate of 20% during the 12thFiveYearPlan.

GWPL is the largest domestic player in Technical Textile industry that provides

application focus solutions to various traditionalsectors like Fisheries,Aquaculture and

also cater to newandrisingsectors like Sports, Defence andTransportation with its



11

Garware - Wall Ropes Ltd.


wide range of product portfolios. End-usersof Company'sproducts include Fishermen, Shipping Companies, OilDrillers,

Agriculturists, Packers, Transporters, Construction companies, Municipalities, Government Organizations, Clubs,Universities and Manufacturing Plants. The company also provide various product and solution for Water management,

Waste management, erosion control applications.Apart from being a leadingplayer in the domestic market, GWPL has a

dominant shareofmarkets inNorthAmerica, andpartsof EuropeandandAustralia forseveral products.

Apart from the traditional sectors, GWPLhas started focus on innovative business areas like Agriculture, Coated Fabrics (

toprotect goodsduringtransportation)and Defence.

As the growth in defence technical textiles is immense as India imports >20% of its requirement from different countries

such as Israel, Russia and the US. The market size of technical textiles in Indian defence is estimated at is more than~1,300 Cr. GWRLhas developed a strong association withAerial Delivery Research & Development Establishment. The

partnership has seen successful completion of several projects like Flexible Helimats (landing & take-off of helicopter at

oddplaceslikedesert ), tocover radarat sensitive location andspecial type of balloons.

Apart from general product portfolio in Agriculture products, GWRL has developed products like Insect Repellant Nets

through advance extrusion and coating techniques for protection of crops from different insects and also developed

Staking Cord forsupport of high fruit bearing plants from falling off to thegroundbyweightof thefruits.

To counter the slowdown in traditional business, GWRL has developed new business lines in Aquaculture with vastproduct portfolio specially in Cages and Nest that best suits the industry requirement. According to management, GWRL

innovative solutionslaunched in theAquaculturearebecomingslowlyandsteadilysuccessful.

According to Industry estimates, the market for Geo-textiles is projected to reach $8,632.83 Million by 2019, growing with a

CAGR of 10.59% between 2014 and 2019. Asia is the fastest growing market for Geo-textiles with China and India

cumulatively accounting for more than 85% of the total Asian market. Asia-Pacific is projected to gain the major market

size byvalue by2019.

GWRL provides some of the unique solution in Geo Textile for Infrastructure sector. Despite the persistent slowdown in

the domestic infrastructure sector, Company has increased its business in Geo Textile specially in erosion control and

Most of the Raw Material (like High Density Polyethylene ,Polypropylene, Nylon PolyesterYarn) consumed by the GWRL

is crude based derivatives which constitutes ~50% of total expenditure. RM cost as % of sales remains in the range of

45%-47% in last five years.Fallingcrudeoilprice (Brentcrudetouched lowest levelsince 2004) leads toadded

GWRL focuses on new business areas

Growth in Aquacultureindustry and Infrastructure development will benefit to GWRL

landfill lining.

Falling crude oil prices and currency devaluation work well for GWRL

C o m p a n y A n a l y s i s



Garware-Wall Ropes Ltd.


advantage for GWRL in the form of margin expansion. RM cost as % of Sales fell from 47% in 6MFY15 to 43% in 6M Fy16

leads to EBITDAmargin expansion of 137bps to 11.80% in H2FY16 (v/s 10.43% in H2FY15). Rupee depreciation help s tomaintain top line better due to exports revenue contributes ~49% of top line as company has increased its focus on USA,

Canada and Europe.

GWRL ’s top line grew from `498 Cr. in FY11 to ̀782 Cr. in FY15, CAGR of 12% (absolute growth +57% ) largely on better

performance of itssyntheticcordage segment (mainly includes its Ropes,Twines and Nettings business ), better capacity

utilization and improved itsperformance through innovative productsandexploration of newbusiness segments. In last five

years, company has made its efforts for addition of new customers across the globe to compensate for contraction in

traditionalmarkets. Exports revenue alsogrewfrom ` 338 Cr. inFY14 to ` 385 Cr. inFY15, upby13%YoY.

High cash flow from operations( mainlyon account of higherprofitability and improved working capital efficiencies) leads to

consistent debt payment there by improving ROCE ( grew from 14.40% to 20.06% YoY ) and RONW ( grew from 9.85% to

14.72%YoY). DWRL’s total debt ( Short + long term ) has reduced from ` 71.33 Cr. in FY14 to ` 39.72 Cr. in FY15. Interest

cost has also reduced from `12.83 Cr. in FY14 to ` 10.25 in FY15 there by improves interest coverage ratio to 6.89% in

FY15.(v/s4.04%inFY14)

FinancialAnalysis

Top linegrew 12% CAGR from FY11 to FY 15

Constant debt payment improved return ratios

ROCE RONW Debt / Equity

25.00%

20.00%

15.00%

10.00%

5.00%

0.00%

FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

0.199.85%9.54%9.90%10.82%

12.18% 12.05% 12.31% 0.34

14.14%

0.490.53

0.45

14.72%

20.06%

Source : Company, JSL Research



13

Garware-Wall Ropes Ltd.


C o m p a n y A n a l y s i s

Financial Performance

FY 12

0.56

1.4

1.73

4.71

3.88

1.47

2.9311.13

4.13

12.3

9.59

94

39

FY 13

0.48

1.43

1.79

4.92

4.16

1.55

3.3110.65

4.1

12.32

9.55

88

39

FY 14

0.34

1.4

2

5.54

4.87

1.88

4.059.63

3.89

14.16

9.87

76

37

Debt-Equity Ratio (x)

Current Ratio (x)

Fixed Assets Ratio (x)

Inventory Ratio (x)

Debtors Ratio (x)

Total Asset Turnover Ratio (x)

Interest Cover RatioPBIDTM (%)

APATM (%)

ROCE (%)

RONW (%)

Debtors Velocity (Days)

Creditors Velocity (Days)

FY 15

0.19

1.33

2.17

5.96

4.85

2.23

6.910.57

5.48

20.05

14.72

84

34

Consolidated Key Financials

FY 12

23.71

250.34

395.1

140.33

336.28

205.94

383.9

177.96

573.06

580.82

578.27

3.34

584.65

487

3.46

64.63

48.02

48.61

32

24.0124.02

FY 13

23.71

267.1

382.27

110.43

338.56

205.99

387.4

181.41

563.68

603.05

599.37

5.82

596.18

475.47

48.29

64.21

49.73

47.89

33.41

24.7224.69

FY 14

21.97

275.41

351.59

71.33

350.95

169.57

418.05

248.48

600.07

688.79

684.56

4.1

678.51

546.3

59.01

66.35

53.52

51.96

39.13

26.7626.75

Equity Paid Up

Networth

Capital Employed

Total Debt

Gross Block (Excl. Reval. Res.)

Net Working Capital ( Incl. Def. Tax)

Current Assets ( Incl. Def. Tax)

Current Liabilities and Provisions ( Incl. Def. Tax)

Total Assets/Liabilities (excl Reval & W.off)

Gross Sales

Net Sales

Other Income

Value Of Output

Cost of Production

Selling Cost

PBIDT

PBDT

PBIT

PBT

PAT after Minority Interest & P/L Associate Company Adjusted PAT

FY 15

21.88

310.6

354.19

39.72

374.16

155.07

501.55

346.47

700.66

786.6

782.23

3.82

789.41

609.83

84.45

83.15

72.9

70.76

60.51

43.1243.26

Consolidated Key Financials

( ` in Cr )



Fundamental Stock Update


Hindustan Unilever Ltd. CMP: 856 Target : 922 “Accumulate”

Financial Basics

FV (`)

EPS (`)

Book Value (`)

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

52 Week High (`)

52 Week Low (`)

Equity ( ` in Cr.)

MKT.CAP( ` in Cr.)

1.00

14.05

18.58

60.61

45.83

981

744.5

216.39

184275.23

Share Holding Pattern (%)

Foreign

Institutions

Non Prom.

Promoters

Public & Others

14.29

4.81

1.19

67.21

12.5

New Developments

To strengthen the presence in the Hair Oil segment, HUL has signed anagreement with Mosons Group to acquire hair-care brand “Indulekha” for Rs 330crore and further deferred payments based on performance. The deal includestrademarks “Indulekha “and “Vayodha” intellectual property, design and knowhow. HUL wil l also pay "deferred consideration” of 10% on thedomestic turnover of the brands each year for five years starting FY18. Theacquisitionmayalso help HULboost itspresence in theAyurvedicspace.

Delayed commencement of winter will have a bearing on performance of itsPersonal Care portfolio. Nonetheless, the management remains confident of long-term consumption opportunity and continues to see premiumization invarious product categories—e.g., Surf Excel is now the largest brand forHUVR inDetergents.

HUL to acquire“ Indulekha” for ̀ 330Cr.,

Latearrival of winter season may impact Q3FY16 performance

Valuation :

Currently, HINDUNLVR is trading at `856. We recommend “Accumulate” withtarget price of ̀ 922, valuing stock 45x FY17E EPS of ̀ 20.50. The stock currentlytradesat45.30xofFY16E and 41.80 x ofFY17E.

Welspun Syntex Ltd. CMP: 151 Target : 223 “ Buy”

Financial Basics

FV (`)

EPS (`)

Book Value (`)

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

52 Week High (`)

52 Week Low (`)

Equity ( ` in Cr.)

MKT.CAP( ` in Cr.)

10

11.37

37.3

13.76

4.2

158.6

91.5

39.24

614.11Share Holding Pattern (%)

Foreign

Institutions

Non Prom.

Promoters

Public & Others

0.66

1.1

5

70.1

23.16

New Developments

Welspun Group to hive off yarn-spinning business for next generation

Valuation

Welspun Group, is carving out the yarn-spinning business, Welspun Syntex,which will bemanaged bycofounderRajeshMandawewala's elder sonAbhishek.

Mandawewala, group managing director, is in the process of purchasing partner and chairman BK Goenka's stake in Welspun Syntex. This step is part of efforts toensure separation of ownership and management while simultaneously planninga smoothsuccession of thebusiness to thenext generation.

Initially, It was assumed that sons would join fathers' business but that isn't thecase anymore with globalization of businesses and better corporate governancemechanisms

Currently, WELSYNTEX is trading at `151. We recommend “Buy” with targetprice of `223, valuing stock 13xFY17E EPS of `17.18.The stock currently tradesat 10.06xof FY16Eand8.38xof FY17E.



15



S t o c k U p d a t e

Dewan Housing Finance Ltd. CMP : 235 Target : 368 “Buy”

Financial Basics

FV (`)

EPS (`)

Book Value (`)

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

52 Week High (`)

52 Week Low (`)

Equity ( ` in Cr.)

MKT.CAP( ` in Cr.)

10

23.15

158.89

9.98

1.45

284.6

180.5

291.77

6738.36


Foreign

Institutions

Non Prom.

Promoters

Public & Others

35.80

1.77

13.87

34.90

13.66

New Developments

Various NBFCs have started to focus on SMEs to tap the high quality borrowersbecause as bank lending declined. All NBFCs are remain optimistic about thefunding scenario. According to a recent Crisil report, loan against propertysegment for SMEs is expected togrow by Rs5 lakh crore by 2018-19 and NBFCsare expected tocontributenearlyhalfof this.

According to Management , DHFL is fairly optimistic of clocking 18-19% growth inits loan book. Thehousing finance major is also hopeful of maintaining thegrowth

rate in the next two years as it goes about strengthening its existing branchnetwork and improving the IT systems to reach further into Tier- 2 and Tier-3markets. DHFL will remain on the low- and middle-income segments and arefocused andwill bea retail focused player.

Focus started on SMEs to tap thehigh quality borrowers

Fairly optimistic for FY16E to achieve 18-19%loan book growth

Valuation

Currently, DHFLis trading at `235. Werecommend“Buy”with targetprice of ̀ 368,valuing stock 1.80xFY17E book value of ̀ 204.The stock currently trades at 1.31xofFY16E and1.15xof FY17E.

Bharat Forge Ltd. CMP : 893 Target : 1150 “ Buy”

Financial Basics

FV (`)

EPS (`)

Book Value (`)

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

52 Week High (`)

52 Week Low (`)

Equity ( ` in Cr.)

MKT.CAP( ` in Cr.)

2

29.88

147.94

28.6

5.78

1363

773.05

46.56


Foreign

Institutions

Non Prom.

Promoters

Public & Others

18.45

13.87

7.7

46.74

13.24

New Developments

Bharat Forgeto supply engineparts to Rolls-Royce

Near headwinds continue,long term future bright

Valuation

Bharat Forge signed a long-term agreement with Rolls-Royce for supply of aeroengine parts. The agreement includes supply of critical and high integrity forgedand machined components for a range of aero engines, including the flagshipTrent engine. According to Management, it is strategic intent to play asignificant role in global aerospace supply chain with forged and machinedproducts.

Bharat Forge organized a meeting with analysts to discuss the company’sbusiness plans. The compnay has made to scale-up various segments of itsbusiness and develop new products to double its standalone revenues over the

next five years. FY2016 is likely to be a weak year for the company, led byslowdown in the US truck market and oil & gas industry (~40% of standalonerevenues) but new products/verticals will likely result in 16% CAGR (compoundannualgrowth rate) in revenues in theFY2016-18period.

Currently, BHARATFORG is trading at `893. We recommend “Buy” with targetprice of `1150, valuing stock 25.05xFY17E EPS of `45.9.The stock currentlytradesat25.01xof FY16Eand19.46xofFY17E.





Havells India Ltd. CMP : 301 Target : 346 “Buy”

Financial Basics

FV (`)

EPS (`)

Book Value (`)

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

52 Week High (`)

52 Week Low (`)

Equity ( ` in Cr.)

MKT.CAP( ` in Cr.)

1.00

5.58

29.11

54.50

10.44

315

235

62.46

18987


Foreign

Institutions

Non Prom.

Promoters

Public & Others

26.13

3.56

1.80

61.63

6.87

New Developments

Havells Indiato sell 80% stakein Sylvaniafor 148 Mn.Euro

Havells India has decided to sell 80 stake in Havells Sylvania Malta BV owned byits subsidiary Havells Holdings (HHL) and Havells Exim to Chinese companyFeilo. Feilo which has business of manufacturing and distributing lightingequipment, is the first listed company in China. Havells India will continue to hold20 percent stake in Sylvania. Stake sell in Sylvania fetch for Rs 1,070 crore thatwill be used for expansion of company's portfolio through organic & inorganicroute.

Havells has invested over Rs980crore in Sylvania in 8 years.Company'sbalancesheet will strengthen post Sylvania divestment. Standalone business continuestobeona strong footing andthere isnochangetostandalonebusinessguidance.

Havells India will start manufacturing small domestic appliances from January2016. The company will make appliances like mixer grinder, juicer mixer grinder,electric iron andinductioncook top.

Valuation

Currently, HAVELLS is trading at `301. We recommend “Buy” with target price of `346, valuingstock 31xFY17E EPS of ̀ 11. The stock currently trades at 33.82x of FY16Eand27.36xofFY17E.

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. CMP : 4638 Target : 5200 “ Buy”

Financial Basics

FV (`)

EPS (`)

Book Value (`)

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

52 Week High (`)

52 Week Low (`)

Equity ( ` in Cr.)

MKT.CAP( ` in Cr.)

5

105.49

805.03

43.98

5.76

4790

3299.75

151.04


Foreign

Institutions

Non Prom.

Promoters

Public & Others

22.2

14.44

4.49

56.21

2.67

New Developments

Maruti Suzuki India's minority shareholders vote on Gujarat plant, positivefor Maruti Suzuki India

Expected to double its current manufacturing facility by 2020

Valuation

Initially, the Gujarat plant was proposed tobe owned by Maruti Suzuki but the planwas changed later with its Japanese parent Suzuki Motor Corporationannouncing in January last year that it would invest$488 millionto build theplant.

The Gujarat plant is envisaged to have an installed capacity of 7.5 lakh unitsannually. MSI's two units at Gurgaon and Manesar have a total productioncapacityof 1.5millionunitsannually.

To double its infrastructure and sell 30 lakh units of cars a year, country's largestcarmaker, MarutiSuzuki India and itsdealers areplanning to make an investmentof 30,000 crore. The carmaker has claimed that it is looking forward to sell 20 lakhunits by year 2020, which means that it will be at least 8 to 10 years before Marutireaches its 30 lakh units per yearmark.

Currently, MARUTI is trading at `4638. We recommend “Buy” with target price of `5200, valuing stock 22.46xFY17E EPS of `231.5.The stock currently trades at26.01xof FY16Eand20.03xof FY17E.



17

Fundamental Stocks


V ALU E B U Y

V a l u e t o B u y

Auto Ancil lar ies

Suprajit Engg.

Automobi le

Banks

Capital Goods

Cement

Finance

Infrastructure

145 171 111 10% 19% 15% 1 1742 7.23 0.6528.81

Ashok Leyland

M & M

Maruti Suzuki

88

1218

4619

100

1442

4790

43

1092

3251

1%

4%

6%

36%

-1%

22%

92%

-1%

40%

1

5

5

25072

75652

139543

7.19

2.93

5.74

0.51

0.99

0.54

34.96

26.41

43.79

ICICI Bank

Bank of Baroda

City Union Bank

DCB Bank

Havells India

TD Power Sys.

Inox Wind

Carborundum Uni.

Thermax

J K Cements

UltraTech Cem.

Dewan Hsg. Fin.

Repco Home Fin

PTC India Fin

Larsen & Toubro

Adani Ports

Ashoka Bui ldcon

252

160

91

76

301

280

352

183

906

641

2848

216

635

38

1281

252

193

393

229

106

151

316

479

494

200

1318

756

3398

285

785

73

1894

375

221

243

137

85

75

235

247

315

150

827

545

2419

181

560

37

1265

239

123

-8%

-12%

-1%

-40%

19%

-7%

-6%

10%

-2%

3%

-3%

-2%

0%

-7%

-17%

-25%

18%

-17%

13%

-9%

-41%

11%

-1%

-15%

13%

-2%

11%

4%

10%

7%

-9%

-24%

-20%

21%

-24%

-21%

3%

-27%

19%

-30%

NA

8%

-6%

6%

15%

6%

5%

-35%

-14%

-8%

48%

2

2

1

10

1

10

10

1

2

10

10

10

10

10

2

2

5

146490

36820

5470

2157

18797

931

7806

3437

10789

4485

78149

6309

3972

2116

119279

52116

3613

1.73

0.84

2.03

1.4

10.34

1.88

5.61

3.16

5.03

2.77

4.1

1.36

4.89

1.47

2.92

4.84

1.95

12.46

9.77

13.25

11.4

53.93

45.99

21.79

27.78

54.58

36.38

37.66

9.34

29.46

6.16

28.03

21.01

39.48

1.98

1.93

1.2

0

1

0.94

0

0.68

0.77

0.62

0.32

1.28

0.24

2.66

1.27

0.44

0.67

Company Current

Reco

CMP( ` )52 Week

High (`) Low (`) 3M

Absolu te Return (%)

6M 12M

FaceValue

MarketCap

P/E Dividend Yield

%

P/BV

(`) (` in Cr) (x) (x)

Hold

Hold

Hold

Hold

Buy

Hold

Hold

Hold

Hold

Buy

Buy

Buy

Hold

Hold

Hold

Buy

Hold

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy



Logistics

Pharmaceuticals

Textiles

Miscellaneous

Gateway Dis tr.

Al lcargo Logis tics

VRL Logistics

Torrent Pharma.

Sun Pharma. Inds.

Granules India

Garware-Wall Rop

SRF

Welspun Syntex

Ambika Cotton

Nitin Spinners

T.V. Today Netw.

CARE

Century Ply.

Hitech Plast

Interglobe Aviation

Radico Khaitan

Bharat Forge

Omkar Spl.Chem.

Sadbhav Engg.

Eveready Inds.

Inox Leisure

Prabhat Dairy

Infinite Comp

Liberty Shoes

Torrent Power

Kitex Garments

Ahluwalia Cont r.

J Kumar Infra

H P C L

311

347

407

1406

784

151

391

1187

137

808

67

292

1244

173

199

1193

110

841

210

324

284

236

142

217

198

173

681

266

359

829

459

396

479

1718

1201

164

407

1499

152

1149

108

310

1806

262

210

1234

131

1363

241

385

375

276

169

323

313

200

1074

297

449

991

301

256

261

965

704

71

153

830

92

477

25

165

1094

137

81

849

79

773

129

241

155

139

100

122

183

137

468

188

191

535

-5%

18%

3%

-4%

-12%

31%

35%

6%

23%

2%

17%

28%

9%

9%

110%

NA

31%

-11%

28%

13%

2%

5%

NA

23%

2%

10%

-9%

15%

-4%

7%

-15%

8%

39%

12%

-7%

92%

97%

15%

197%

-10%

27%

68%

-15%

-7%

133%

NA

37%

-23%

35%

16%

-6%

39%

NA

36%

-8%

22%

-26%

38%

21%

18%

-3%

19%

NA

35%

-6%

110%

138%

41%

285%

60%

152%

48%

-15%

17%

83%

NA

30%

-6%

40%

31%

62%

42%

NA

39%

-6%

12%

34%

26%

72%

50%

10

2

10

5

1

1

10

10

10

10

10

5

10

1

10

10

2

2

10

1

5

10

10

10

10

10

1

2

10

10

3386

4378

3715

23785

188707

3162

855

6815

537

475

308

1740

3606

3846

302

42980

1470

19569

432

5553

2062

2273

1387

840

337

8305

3236

1784

2715

28059

3.67

2.29

7.85

9.55

7.37

6.79

2.75

3.01

3.67

1.58

1.84

3.87

10.05

9.92

2.6

25.29

1.79

5.68

2.56

3.61

3.3

3.21

2.17

1.06

2.31

1.27

12.26

5.3

2.27

2.06

21.79

15.92

34.83

18.69

42.78

30.39

20.37

19.74

12.04

9.89

6.85

21.96

48.09

27.61

28.41

33.18

20.16

28.13

14.34

36.62

42.46

40.49

66.38

7.54

19.83

12.49

30

27.85

27.06

21.47

2.25

0.58

0.92

0.8

0.38

0.32

0.77

0.84

0.07

1.73

1.49

0.51

6.35

1.16

0.45

0

0.72

0.89

0.72

0.22

0

0

0.03

0

0.76

0.85

0.18

0

0.47

2.96

Company CurrentReco

CMP( ` )52 Week

High (`) Low (`) 3M

Abs olu te Return (%)

6M 12M

FaceValue

MarketCap

P/E Dividend Yield%

P/BV

(`) (` in Cr) (x) (x)

Hold

Hold

Buy

Buy

Hold

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Hold

Hold

Buy

Hold

Buy

Hold

Buy

Hold

Buy

Hold

Buy

Buy

Hold

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Hold

Hold

CMP as on 16/12/2015

Fundamental Stocks


V ALU E B U Y



Scheme Name

NAV

(Div)

NAV

(growth)

1 Year

(%) Since Inc

Ax is Focused 25 Fund

BSL MNC Fund

BSL Manufacturin g Equity Fund

DSP BR Focus 25 Fund

Franklin India Prima Plus

Birla sun life 95 fund

DSP BR balanced fu nd

Franklin India balance fundICICI Prudential Balance Advantage fu nd

L&T India Prudence fund

DSP BR Micro Cap Fund

Franklin India Smaller Co Fund

ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund

Kotak Emerging Equity Fund

Mirae Asset Emerging B luechip Fund

BSL Tax Relief'96 Fund

Religare Invesco Tax plan

Ax is long term equ it y fund

IDFC tax advantage

Franklin Indi a Taxshield

Franklin India Dynamic PE Ratio Fund

ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan

Principal Smart Equity Fund

Religare Invesco Dynamic Equ ity Fund

IDFC Dynamic Equit y Fund

HDFC Monthly Income Plan LTP

FT India MIP

IDFC Monthly Income Plan

Reliance Monthl y Income Plan

ICICI Pru MIP-25

Top Equity Diversified Funds

Top Balanced Funds

Mid Cap Funds

Conservative Funds

MIP Funds

Launch

Date

3 Year

(%)

5 Year

(%)

29-Jun-12

27-Dec-99

3-Feb-15

10-Jun-10

29-Sep-94

10-Feb-95

27-May-99

10-Dec-9930-Dec-06

7-Feb-11

14-Jun-07

13-Jan-06

16-Aug-04

30-Mar-07

9-Jul-10

10-Mar-08

29-Dec-06

29-Dec-09

26-Dec-08

10-Apr-99

31-Oct-03

31-Oct-02

16-Dec-10

04-Oct-07

10-Oct-14

26-Dec-03

28-Sep-00

25-Feb-10

12-Jan-04

30-Mar-04

15.46

145.37

9.71

15.06

35.69

136.30

24.01

21.2415.29

17.48

26.07

25.17

31.65

20.09

24.01

133.50

19.53

21.94

15.21

42.62

37.23

20.01

15.00

18.39

10.36

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

17.13

582.33

9.71

16.78

428.85

553.40

108.08

89.1325.89

19.59

42.94

39.24

111.68

25.91

31.02

21.30

34.56

29.99

37.82

411.09

61.89

178.05

16.57

21.36

10.46

35.28

44.20

17.01

34.13

31.28

3.88

21.25

NA

4.46

6.04

3.86

6.33

6.166.94

10.49

22.39

11.92

6.88

10.42

15.49

10.48

6.11

7.30

8.28

5.58

5.33

-1.68

3.50

5.48

1.43

4.38

6.56

7.19

6.63

7.01

14.67

30.79

NA

15.20

19.87

17.11

14.59

17.9914.63

19.92

34.80

32.92

25.12

24.03

31.41

21.83

21.35

26.40

19.44

20.01

10.81

15.58

13.11

16.07

NA

10.46

11.18

10.03

10.70

11.29

NA

22.57

NA

8.97

13.65

11.80

9.93

12.3413.16

NA

21.02

21.28

17.47

15.75

23.13

12.20

13.65

18.80

12.72

13.71

9.09

10.21

10.61

10.15

NA

9.06

9.91

9.80

9.56

10.01

NA

22.57

NA

8.97

13.65

11.80

9.93

12.3413.16

NA

21.02

21.28

17.47

15.75

23.13

12.20

13.65

18.80

12.72

13.71

9.09

10.21

10.61

10.15

NA

9.06

9.91

9.80

9.56

10.01

Top Saving Funds

NAV as on 21/12/2015

19

JSL Top Mutual Fund Picks


M u t u a l F u n d P i c k s




Selected Macro Economic Indicators

Total Foreign Exchange Reserves (US $ Billion.)

4-Sep 11-Sep 18-Sep 25-Sep 2-Oct 9-Oct 16-Oct 23-Oct 30-Oct 6-Nov 13-Nov 20-Nov 27-Nov 4-Dec 11-Dec

354.00

353.00

352.00

351.00

350.00

349.00

348.00

347.00

346.00

349.00

351.38

352.02

349.97

350.80

353.06353.52

351.54

353.63

351.73

352.51 352.36

351.61352.09

352.50

50000

45000

40000

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 14 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15

43345

39470

42416

3472632152

28220

35704

32949 32690 33068

3579433676

32209

Import & Export (in US $ Million)

2 8 8 7 0

2 5 8 9 2

2 6 4 1 8

2 6 0 2 0

2 3 7 7 6

2 1 8 2 6

2 3 8 8 4

2 1 9 9 8

2 2 2 6 3

2 2 2 7 4

2 3 1 4 3

2 1 2 7 2

2 1 7 2 0

Index of Industrial Production (%)12

10

8

64

2

0

-2

-4 -2.65

5.2

3.572.83

4.81

2.48 3.01 2.514.24 4.34

6.26

3.84

9.81

Oct14 Nov14 Dec14 Jan15 Feb15 Mar15 Apr15 May15 Jun15 Jul15 Aug15 Sep15 Oct15



Consumer Price Index (%)8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

7.236.75

6.3

4.98

5.86

4.12

5.11 5.37 5.17

5.79 5.746.1

4.37 4.35

5.14

6.32

J u l 1 4

A u g 1 4

S e p 1 4

O c t 1 4

N o v 1 4

D e c 1 4

J a n 1 5

F e b 1 5

M a r 1 5

A p r 1 5

M a y 1 5

J u n 1 5

J u l 1 5

A u g 1 5

S e p 1 5

O c t 1 5

FII & DII ( ` in Billion)

M a c r o E c o n o m i c I n d i c a t o r s

21

Selected Macro Economic Indicators





JSL Classroom - Depositary Receipt

American Depositary Receipt (ADR) & Global Deposi try Receipt (GDR)

DifferencebetweenADRand GDR

What are theBenefits of ADRs to US investors?

What arethe Benefits for companies issuing ADRs?

Indian depositary receipt (IDR)

Who can participate?

How are IDRs taxed?

AnAmerican Depositary Receipt (ADR) is a certificate that represents shares of a foreign stock owned and issued by a U.S.bank. The foreign shares are usually held in custody overseas, but the certificates trade in the U.S. Through this system, a

largenumberof foreign-based companiesare actively tradedononeof thethreemajorU.S. equitymarkets.

Followingaresome of Indiancompanieswhich areavailable inADR.Tatamotor, Wipro, ICICIbank, Infosys, HDFC bank, Dr

Reddy labetc.

Global depository receipt (GDR) is compulsory for foreign company to access in any other country’s share market for

dealing in stock But American depository receipt (ADR) is compulsory for non –us companies to trade in stock market of

USA.

Many institutional investorsarerestricted from investing insecurities that donot tradeona U.S. exchange,so listed

ADRsrepresent a way to add international exposure to a portfolio.

Facilitateddiversification into foreign securities.

Allow easy comparison to securities of similar companies as well as access to price and trading information, if listed.

Enhancingcommunicationswithshareholders in theUnited States

Broadeningand diversifyinga company’sUS investorbase

Enhancingthecompany’simageandthat of itsproducts,servicesorsecurities in theUnitedStates.

An IDR is a depository receipt denominated in Indian rupees issued by a domestic depository in India and the underlying

equity shares are secured with a custodian. IDRs will be issued to Indian residents in the same way as domestic shares are

issued. An Indian investor pays in Indian rupees for the IDR whereas a shareholder in the issuer's home country pays in

home currency. The price of the underlying share of the international firm at the foreign exchange and the exchange rate

would play a role indeterminingtheprice ofthe IDR on the domesticexchange.

StandardCharteredPlcis thefirst firm tocome outwith an IDRissue, offering its international sharesthrough IDRs.

Investors eligible to participate in an IDR issue are institutional investors, including FIIs but excluding insurance companies

andventure capital funds retail investorsandnon-Institutional Investors. NRIs canalso participate in theIssue.Commercial

banksmayparticipatesubject toapproval from theRBI.

IDRsare taxed differently fromequityshares. Ifan individual will sell an IDR within a yearofpurchase, the gainswillbe taxed

at income-tax rates.For exitsmade aftera year, thetax rate will be10%without indexation and20%with indexation.



23

JSL Classroom - Depositary Receipt


J S L C l a s s r o o m

RelativeStrength Index (RSI)

What is RSI (Relative Strength Index) ? A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine

overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. The relative strength index (RSI), one of the most popular technical

indicators, is computed on the basis of the speed and direction of a stock's price movement. This means that the RSI

indicatoronly measures thestock's internal strength (basedon itspast) andshouldnotbe confusedwith itsrelativestrength,

that iscomparedwith otherstocks, market indices, Sectoral indices etc.

How it is calculated?TheRSI is calculated using a two-step process. First, theaverage gains and lossesare identified fora specified time period.

For instance, if you want to calculate the 14-day RSI— you can consider any time period, but the 14-day RSI is the most

commonly used—suppose the stock went up onnine days and fell on five days. The absolute gains (stock's closingprice on

a given day — closing price on the previous day) on each of these nine days are added up and divided by 14 to get the

average gains. Similarly, the absolute losses on each of the five days are added up and divided by 14 to get the average

losses. Theratio between thesevalues(averagegains / average losses) isknownas relative strength (RS).

RS=AverageUpwardPriceMove /Average DownwardPriceMove

The ratio between these values (average gains / average losses) is known as relative strength (RS). To make sure that the

RSI alwaysmoves between 0 and100, theindicatoris normalized laterbyusing theformula givenbelow:

RSI=100-100/(1+RS)

How to read and concludeRSI ?

Overbought/oversold levels:

The RSI ranges from 0 to 100.An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, meaning that it

may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that

theasset maybe getting oversold andthereforelikely to becomeundervalued.Below mentionedgraph of NIFTYDaily chart

shows RSI overbought and oversold conditions (RSI value considered in relation to Pricewhich is Indicated by pink marker

at price).

Drawbacks :

The main problemfaced by the short-term traders who use indicators is that the stock may continue to move up despite theindicator hitting the overbought zone, or continue to go down even after the indicator hits the oversold zone. This is the

reason Wilder developed a new concept called 'failure swing' for the RSI. A 'bearish failure swing' occurs when

the RSI enters the overbought zone (goes above the 70 level) and comes below 70 again. In other words, a short

position can be taken only when the RSI cuts the 70 lines from the top. Similarly, a 'bullish failure swing' occurs when

theRSI entersthe oversold zone andcomesout.



JSL Ideal Portfolio ( Diversified Large Cap )


of Ideal Portfolio:

Stock Selection Methodology :

Key Risks :

Theobjective of this portfolio is to generate long term capital appreciationby investing

in concentrated portfolio of large cap and growth oriented mid cap companies. This will help to generate meaningful wealthfor InvestorsfromEquity Market.

Based on various fundamental parameters andvaluationcheck along with certain themes

likeCyclical, Bottom Up,Sector specific, PolicyInitiative/push,Evergreen.

Macroeconomic / political conditionandsystematic risk,corporateperformancerisk

Stock Sector Weights Price** CMP* Target Potential Upside

Large Cap

Maruti Suzuki

KEC International

Bharat Forge

Ultratech Cement

Diwan Housing Finance

Sun Pharma

Inox Wind

Torren Power

State Bank o f India

Axis Bank

Automobi le

Capital Goods

Casting and Forgins

Cement

Housing Finance

Pharma

Power

Power

PSU Banks

Public Bank

7%

5%

8%

7%

8%

7%

8%

8%

7%

7%

4550

136

868

2835

209

252

161

235

228

454

4635

153

902

2810

274

230

200

277

228

454

5200

180

1200

3400

287

368

205

368

325

620

14%

32%

38%

20%

37%

46%

27%

57%

43%

37%

Mid Cap

VRL Logistics

Torrent Pharma

Ashoka Buidcon

Ahluwal i Contracts

Everday Industries

Logistics

Pharma

Infrastructure

Infrastructure

Consumer Non-Durable

5%

8%

5%

5%

5%

381

1555

831

388

185

406

1460

811

363

174

457

1840

1041

488

234

20%

18%

25%

26%

26%

Comparative Portfolio Returns***

Particulars Return Since Inception Particulars Return Since Inception

Ideal Portfolio ReturnLarge Cap (64%)

Mid Cap (36%)

Value Buy (100%)

NiftySensex

CNX Mid Cap

CNX Small Cap

Notes : *CMP as on 28/12/2015., Price ** on Recommendation, ***This i s our f irst port folio recommendation. JSL research

provide Comparative Portfolio Returns in our January issue.

Ob ective

Investment Horizon : 9-12 Months

--

-

-

--

-

-



25

JSL Ideal Portfolio ( Small Cap )


Stock Selection Methodology :

Key Risks :

The aim is to generate long term capital appreciation from a portfolio that is not part of the leading stocks by

market capitalization. The aim is to include and invests in companies that have immense growth potential as they areoperatingona smallerbase.

Based on various valuation parameters and finding out early stage companies

based onsoundbusinessmodel andavailableat cheapvaluation

Small-cap stocks are not tracked closely by market/ equity analysts and that is why the real value of good

small-cap stocks can remain undiscovered for long. This makes investing in them risky. The risk associated with large cap

funds also associated with small cap( see last page).Small companiesarerelatively weak in termsof governance, dividend

policies andprofessionalismof theboard.Thismakes them risky.

Ob ective

Stock Sector Weights CMP* Target Potential Upside

Welspun Syntex

Good Year

KPR Mills

KRBL

Garwale Wall Ropes

Smartlink Network

MPS

MT Educare

Shaily Engineering Plastics

Amb ika Cotton Mil ls Ltd.

Textile

Tyre

Textile

Food Processing

Textile

IT- Hardware

Printing

Education

Capital Goods

Textile

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

155

564

865

225

425

101

808

186

635

934

223

868

1120

360

550

156

1150

220

890

1149

44%

54%

29%

60%

29%

54%

42%

18%

40%

23%

Diversified Equity Portfolio Allocation

Power

Pharma

Banks

Infrastructure

Casting and Forgins

Housing Finance

Automobi le

Cement

Capital Goods

Consumer Non-Durable

Logistics

16%

15%

14%

10%

8%

8%

7%

7%

5%

5%

5%

Small Cap Portfolio Allocation

Textile

Computer - Hardware

Education

Food Processing

Pharmaceuticals

Printing and Stationery

Retail

Tyre

40%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

Notes : *CMP as on 28/12/2015., Price ** onRecommendation, Price need to change

Investment Horizon : 18 - 24 Months

I d e a l P o r t f o l i o



Monthly Technical Picks - Equity


BHARTI INFRATEL LTD IRB INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPERS

We have detected a Symmetrical Continuation Triangle chart patternformed on Bharti Infratel Ltd.The price has broken upward out of aconsolidation period, suggesting a continuation of theprior uptrend.ASymmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bullish) shows two convergingtrendlines as prices reach lower highs and higher lows. Then wellbefore the triangle reaches its apex, the price breaks out above theupper trendline with a noticeable increase in volume, confirming thepattern asa continuation of theprioruptrend.

ADANI PORT

We has detected a "Descending Continuation Triangle" chart pattern

formed on Canara Bank.The increasingly lower highs and constantlows within this pattern tell us that sellers are more aggressive thanbuyers, confirmed by a break down through a support level to signal acontinuation of the prior downtrend. The pattern typically formsbecause a demand for shares is available at a certain price,represented by the lower flat line propping the price up. But when thesupply depletes, the shares quickly break down below the bottomboundary lineand movelower.

We has detected that Average Directional moving index has started

rising in Adani Ports weekly charts. The stock had earlier fallen fromlevels of 372 to 239 Rs and had now bounced backto 268 Rs which is23.8% retracement level of earlier fall and also coincides with 100days EMA will act as strong resistance. We recommend to sell thestock at these levels as this bearish pattern indicates that the stockpricemay fall in thecoming weeks.

We have detected bullish chart pattern formed on IRB InfrastructureDevelopers Ltd. The price has broken upward out of a consolidationperiod, suggesting a continuation of the prior uptrend. The patternbegins during a downtrend as prices create higher highs and lower lows in a broadening pattern. Then the trading range graduallynarrows after the highs peak and the lows start trending upward.When the price breaks upward out of the rectangle boundary lines, itmarksthe resumption of theprioruptrend.

BUY BTWN 400-410 TGT 435 - 440 SL 385

SELL BTWN 220-225 TGT 200-195 SL 235SELL BTWN 240-245 TARGET 228-225 SL 255

BUY BTWN 250-254 Target 290-295 SL 230

CANARA BANK



27

Monthly Technical Outlook - Index


M o n

t h l y T e c h n i c a l O u t l o o k

Nifty

The index opened at 7958, made a high of 7979, made a low of 7551 and closed the month at 7946. Nifty is currently inMedium term downtrend. Nifty is taking support at long term trend line on monthly charts from previous few months. The

current level of trend line support zone is at 7750-7800 on monthly basis and nifty has managed to close above that in

December month also. But Directional moving index had given negative crossover and momentum indicators like RSI at

53.65 in declining phase is indicating that more downside levels can come in coming months if nifty breaks the trend line

support and momentumof sell will riseafter break of previous lowof nifty at 7550. Monthlysupport cluster of Nifty is at 7200-

6700. Bullswillhaveupper handonly ifNifty crosses and manages toclose above 8350onweeklybasis.

Bank Nifty

The index opened at 17456, made a high of 17496, made a low of 16188 and closed the month at 16922. BankNifty iscurrently in Medium term downtrend. It is witnessing retracement of previous bull rally from 8366 to 20907. The Monthly

Fibonacci Retracement comes at 16100-14600 where Banknifty is likely to take supports. Banknifty has managed to close

above 16100 levels from previous four months. But Momentum indicators like RSI at 54.22 in declining phase is indicating

that more downside levels can come in coming months as lower top lower bottom pattern is witnessed in weekly charts.

Momentumof sell will rise afterbreakof previous lowofBankniftyat15762.



Monthly Technical Outlook - Commodity


Bullion

Energy

Bullion prices dropped as the combination of a firm dollar and weak oil prices left the metal on track for its third consecutiveannual loss. Largely influenced by U.S. monetary policy and dollar flows, the price of bullion dropped in 2015 as someinvestors sold the precious metal to buy assets that pay a yield, such as equities. Following the U.S. Federal Reserve's firstinterest rate rise in nearly a decade earlier this month and indications the central bank would resort to gradual increases in2016, the outlook for gold does not look bullish. Other fundamentals were not supportive either. A report showed that thenumber of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. rose to the highest level since mid-July last week. TheU.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits increased by 20,000 last week to287,000. Manufacturing activity in the Chicago-area contracted at the fastest pace since July 2009 in December,dampening optimism over the U.S. economic outlook, industry data showed. Market research group KingsburyInternational said its Chicagopurchasing managers’ index tumbled by 5.8 points to42.9 this month from a reading of 48.7 inNovember.Assetsof SPDR Gold Trust, the topgold-backed exchange-tradedfund, were near a seven-year lowwhile shortpositions on COMEX gold contracts were close to a record high. Regional premiums for gold in India were higher becausethe New Year holidays were restricting imports. Buoyed by sharp fall in gold prices globally, India is likely to see a jump of 11per cent in imports of the metal to 1,000 tonnes, says a trade body. According to the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade

Federation, the world’s second-biggest gold consumer imported around 900 tonnes in 2014. According to the federation,India has already imported 850 tonnes of gold from January to September 2015 as against 650 tonnes in the first ninemonthsof last year. The U.S.Mintsolda recordamountofAmerican Eagle silver bullioncoins and saw sales of its goldcoinsrise by 53 percent this year, it said, as weak metal prices unleashed a fresh wave of buying by investors and collectors.Volumes remained light as many investors already closed books at the end of the year, reducing liquidity in the market.Silver imports are likely to set a new record due to rapid change in consumer preferences from imitation jewellery andartifactsmadeof alternativematerials to silver.

Recommendation:

SELL GOLD @25600 SL 25900 TGT 24900.SELL SILVER@ 34100 SL 34800 TGT 32800

Crude oil dropped byaround two percent and also ended the year lower after a racetopumpby MiddleEastcrude producersand U.S. shale oil drillers created an unprecedented global glut that may take through 2016 to clear. Prices also seen underpressure after another year that showed the helplessness of SaudiArabia and others in the once-powerful Organization ofthe Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to support oil prices. The U.S. shale industry, meanwhile, surprised the worldagain with its ability to survive rock-bottom crude prices, churning out more supply than thought, even as the sell-off in oilslashed by two-thirds the numberofdrilling rigs in the country froma yearago.The UnitedStatesalso tooka historicmove inrepealing a 40-year ban on U.S. crude exports to countries outside Canada, acknowledging the industry's growth. Thedownturn has caused pain across the energy supply chain, including shippers, private oil drillers and oil-dependentcountries from Venezuela and Russia to the Middle East. Global crude production is expected to exceeds demand byanywhere between half a million and 2 million barrels every day. Natural gas prices rose over 14% as updated weather forecasting modelspredicted that chillywinterconditionsacross theU.S. Midwest andNortheastarenotexpected to last formore than a week. Prices also seen supported after data showed U.S. natural gas supplies in storage fell more thanexpected lastweek. TheU.S. Energy InformationAdministration said in itsweekly report that natural gasstorage in theU.S.in the week ended December 25 fell by 58 billion cubic feet, broadly in line with expectations for a decline of 57 billion. That

comparedwitha drawdownof 32billioncubicfeetin the prior week, 26 billioncubic feet in the sameweek last year, while thefive-year average change for the week is a drawdown of 98 billion cubic feet. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.756trillion cubic feet, 14.2% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 12.0% above the five-year average for this time of year. Prices seen supported the whole week as updated weather forecasting models predicted that chilly winter conditionsacross the U.S.Midwest and Northeast are not expected to last for more thana week. Despite recentgains,pricesof the fuelarestill dropped nearly20%in 2015,as weak demandandhealthy stockpilesweighed.

Recommendation:

SELL CRUDE OIL @2550SL 2650TGT 2300. SELL NAT.GAS @160 SL 168 TGT 142




M u t u a l F u n d

ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund

ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund (Tax Saving) has been one of the top performing Equity Linked Savings

Schemes (ELSS) over the last 15years. If you had investedRs5,000 monthly in ICICIPrudential Long Term Equity Fund(Tax Saving) over the last 15 years, you would have saved up to Rs 270,000 in taxes over this period (assuming you are in

30% tax bracket) and on top of this accumulated a corpus of close to Rs60 lacs. Noother tax saving investment would have

giventhiskindof returns in thisperiod. The performance ofthisfundis a testimony of the wealthcreationpower ofELSS.

ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund (Tax Saving) has been a top ELSS performer even over the last three to five years.

Thisfund launched inAugust1999, hasa fantastic track recordof generating alphassince its inception. Seethechart below,

for the comparison of annualized returns over one, three, five and ten year periods, of the fund, the ELSS Category and the

benchmarkNifty500index (NAVsasonDec142015).

Even in terms of annual returns the fund’s performance has been outstanding, making this fund one of the most long term

consistent performers in the ELSS category. The chart below shows the annual returns of the ICICI Prudential Long Term

EquityFund (TaxSaving) andtheELSS categoryover thelast 10years.

1% 1%

-5%

19%16%

11%13%

10%

6%

14%12%

10%

1year 3 years 5 years 10 years

ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund ELSS Funds Category Nifty 500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD

ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund ELSS Funds Category

29




Fund Overview of ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund

Portfolio Construction of ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund

The ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund is suitable for investors looking for tax planning investment options under Section 80C with the expectation of long term capital appreciation. However, since this is essentially a diversified equity

fund, it is subject to market risk and volatility as compared to other tax saving instruments like PPF, NSC etc. However,

equities as anasset class generatesuperior returns over thelong term andservesas aneffectivehedge against inflation.As

such, the fund is suitable for investors planning for long term financial objectives like retirement planning, children’s

education, marriage etc.The fundhas anAUMbase of overRs2,840 crores, withan expense ratio of 2.41%. GeorgeHeber

Joseph is the manager of this fund. Prior to George, Chintan Haria was the fund manager from 2011. Before Chintan, this

fund wasmanaged by ICICIPrudential CIOShankaran Naren.

The fund has a large cap bias. The investment style is growth focused. 65% of the fund’s assets are invested in large cap

companies. However, relative of the average portfolios of ELSS as a fund category, the fund has a higher allocation to small

and midcap companies. From a sector perspective, the portfolio has a bias for cyclical sectors like Banking and Finance,

Automobiles and Auto Ancillaries, Mining and Minerals, Capital Goods etc, but it also has substantial allocations to sectors

like IT and Pharmaceuticals. This portfolio construction enables the fund manager to get good returns across different

market conditions. In terms of company concentration, the portfolio is very well diversified with its top 5 holdings, HCL

Technologies, HDFC Bank, Cipla, Thomas Cook, and Power Grid accounting for only 34% of the total portfolio value. The

top10stocksaccount foraround 55%of theportfolioholdings.

Sector composition of ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund

24%35%

4%

14% 12%

11%

BFSI

Auto & Auto Ancilliaries

IT

Pharma

Mining & Minerals

Others

66%

9.4%

8.2%

6%

5.4%

5%

HCL Technologies Ltd

HDFC Bank Ltd

Cipla Ltd

Thomas Cook India


30




M u t u a l F u n d


Other Performance Measures

Comparison of ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund with Peer Set

Conclusion

From a risk perspective, the volatility of the ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund, measured in annualized standarddeviation overa three to fiveyearperiod is in linewith that of the ELSScategory. However, ona riskadjusted returnbasis, as

measured by Sharpe Ratio the fund has outperformed the ELSS category. Over the last three years the Sharpe Ratio of the

fund is 0.87 versus 0.73 for the category. Over the last 5 year period the Sharpe Ratio of the fund is 0.4 versus 0.25 for the

category.

Comparison of annualized trailing returns of ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund, with its ELSS peers across different

time-scales shows why this fund is considered a top performer. While many of its peers have performed very strongly over

theyears, theperformanceof ICICIPrudential Long TermEquity Fund haseithermatched their performance oreven beaten

them.

By virtue of its outstanding long term track record of wealth creation, ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund (Tax Saving)

has established itself as one the top Equity Linked Saving Schemes (ELSS) funds. Investors planning for tax saving

investments can consider buying the scheme through the systematic investment plan (SIP) or lump sum route with a long

time horizon. Investors should also ensure that the investment objectives of the fund are aligned with their individual risk

profilesandtime horizons.

ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund Tata Long Term Equity Fund

Franklin India Tax Shield Birla Sun Life Tax Relief

HDFC Tax Saver

19% 19% 19%

21%

15%

13% 13%14%

12%

9%

14%13%

15%14%

13%

3 years 5 years 10 years

31



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French Flash Services PMISpanish Unemployment RateGerman Flash Manufacturing PMIGerman Flash Services PMIFlash Manufacturing PMIFlash Services PMIFinal CPI y/yMinimum Bid RateECB Press ConferencePhilly Fed Manufacturing IndexUnemployment Claims

Existing Home SalesCB Leading Index m/m

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HPI m/mS&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/yCB Consumer ConfidenceRichmond Manufacturing Index

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Federal Funds RateGerman Prelim CPI m/mGerman Unemployment ChangeCore Durable Goods Orders m/mUnemployment ClaimsDurable Goods Orders m/mPending Home Sales m/m

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Money Navigator January 2016

Documents

Transcript of Money Navigator January 2016