Monetary Policy Update September 2011
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Transcript of Monetary Policy Update September 2011
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Monetary PolicyUpdate
September 2011
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Repo-rate increases postponed
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Turbulence in the financial markets
Stock market index, 3 January 2006 = 100 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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Sweden (OMXS)
Euro area (Euro Stoxx)
USA (S&P 500)
Emerging markets (MSCI)
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Major problems with public finances
Public debt as percentage of GDP Source: IMF WEO April 2011
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USA
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Portugal
Spain
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Declining confidence abroad
Purchasing managers’ index, manufacturing industry, seasonally-adjusted data
Source: Markit Economics
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Euro area
USA
The World
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Global growth holding up
GDP, annual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank
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Euro area
USA
The World
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Cautious Swedish households and companies
Confidence indicators for households and the total business sector, net figures, seasonally-adjusted data
Source: NIER
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Households
Business sector
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Slower Swedish growth in the short term
GDP, quarterly percentage change as an annual rate, seasonally-adjusted dataSources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Mean 2000 Q1 – 2011 Q2
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Slow improvement in the labour market
Unemployment, percentage of labour force, seasonally-adjusted dataSources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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September
July
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Wage increases compatible with the inflation target
Nominal wages, annual percentage change Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Mean 1998 -2011 Q1
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Low inflationary pressures
Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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CPICPIFCPIF excluding energy
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Lower repo-rate path
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly mean values Source: The Riksbank
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July
September
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A forecast not a promise
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly mean values Source: The Riksbank
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90%75%50%OutcomeForecast
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Repo-rate increases postponed