Monetary Policy Update December 2011
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Monetary Policy Update December 2011
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Monetary Policy Update December 2011. Swedish economy is slowing down and inflationary pressures are low. Still considerable unease on the financial markets. Government bonds with approximately 10 years to maturity, percentage points. Source: Reuters EcoWin. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Monetary Policy Update December 2011
Monetary PolicyUpdate
December 2011
Swedish economy is slowing down
and inflationary pressures are low
Still considerable unease on the financial markets
Government bonds with approximately 10 years to maturity, percentage points
Source: Reuters EcoWin
0
1
2
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4
5
6
7
8
0
1
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4
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7
8
08 09 10 11
Spain
Italy
France
Germany
Sweden
High indebtedness – still a long way to go
0
40
80
120
160
200
0
40
80
120
160
200
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
USA
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Public debt as a percentage of GDP Source: IMF WEO September 2011
Weak development in the euro area
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
USA
Euro area
GDP, quarterly percentage change as annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
Sweden burdened by weak development in the euro area
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
USAEuro areaSweden
GDP, quarterly percentage change as annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Clear fall-off in Swedish export orders
-60
-40
-20
0
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40
60
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Export orders, net total Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Cautious households and companies
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Households
Business sector
Confidence indicators for households and entire business sector, net figures, seasonally-adjusted data
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Weaker labour market
4
6
8
10
4
6
8
10
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
October
December
Unemployment, percentage of labour force, seasonally-adjusted dataSources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Low inflationary pressures
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CPIF
CPI
Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
A low repo rate stabilises inflation around the target
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1
2
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7
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07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
October
December
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly mean values Source: The Riksbank
A forecast not a promise
-1
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-1
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07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
90%75%50%OutcomeForecast
Unease about public finances subsides
quicker than expected
Problems in the euro area increase
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly mean values Source: The Riksbank
Swedish economy is slowing down
and inflationary pressures are low
Average interest rate for new contracts for companies and households
Per cent Sources: Ecowin and the Riksbank
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2
3
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6
7
0
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2
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4
5
6
7
07 08 09 10 11
Weighted average interest rate forhouseholds and companiesRepo rate
Difference between weighted averageinterest rate and the repo rate
