Monetary Policy Report

July 2012

Unease in Europe casts a shadow over the Swedish economy

Unease on financial markets

Government bonds with 10 years left to maturity, per cent

Source: Reuters EcoWin

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

08 09 10 11 12

Spain

Italy

France

Germany

Large differences in growth in Europe

GDP growth, annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Germany, Statistics Norway, Istat, National Institute of Statistics, Italy and INE – National

Statistics Institute, Spain

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

07 08 09 10 11 12

Spain

Italy

Norway

Germany

Limited contagion effects on rest of world

GDP, annual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, IMF and the

Riksbank

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

The world

USA

Euro area

Continued growth in Sweden despite Europe’s problems

GDP, quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

April

July

Confidence among households and companies has dampened slightly

Index, mean = 100, standard deviation = 10 Source: National Institute of Economic Research

70

80

90

100

110

120

70

80

90

100

110

120

07 08 09 10 11 12

The Economic Tendency Indicator

Mean

+/- one standard deviation

Labour market better than expected

Unemployment, percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the

Riksbank

5

6

7

8

9

5

6

7

8

9

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

April

July

Increased cost pressures

Wages according to the short-term wage statistics, definitive and forecast of definitive outcome, annual percentage change

Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Short-term wages, definitiveShort-term wages, forecast of definitive outcomeMean 1998 - Q1 2011

Low but rising inflation

Note. Annual percentage change. CPIF is CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

CPIF

CPI

Repo rate remains low

Repo rate, per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

April

July

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

90%75%50%OutcomeForecast

A forecast, not a promise

Repo rate, per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

Confidence among households and

companies returns faster than expected

Problems in the euro area worsen

Unease in Europe casts a shadow over the Swedish economy