Monetary Policy Report July 2012. Figure 1.1. GDP in different regions Annual percentage change...
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Transcript of Monetary Policy Report July 2012. Figure 1.1. GDP in different regions Annual percentage change...
Monetary Policy Report
July 2012
Figure 1.1. GDP in different regionsAnnual percentage change
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
TCW
The world
USA
Euro area
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank
Note. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.
Figure 1.2. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
06 08 10 12 14
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. There is also uncertainty for the outcomes for GDP, as the figures in the National Accounts are revised several years after the preliminary publication.
Figure 1.3. CPIF with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
06 08 10 12 14
90%75%50%OutcomeForecast
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Figure 1.4. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
06 08 10 12 14
90%75%50%OutcomeForecast
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors.
Figure 1.5. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages
Source: The RiksbankNote. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the ability of risk-adjusted market rates to forecast the future repo rate for the period 1999 up to the point when the Riksbank started to publish forecasts for the repo rate during 2007. The uncertainty bands do not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate.
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
06 08 10 12 14
90%75%50%OutcomeForecast
Figure 1.6. Government bond rates with 10 years left to maturityPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
05 07 09 11
Spain
Italy
France
Germany
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 1.7. Unit labour costIndex, 1999 = 100
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
99 01 03 05 07 09 11
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Italy
Ireland
Germany
Source: OECD
Figure 1.8. GDP in Sweden, the euro area and the USAQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
06 08 10 12 14
USA
Euro area
Sweden
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
Figure 1.9. Inflation in the euro area and the USAAnnual percentage change
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Eurostat
Note: This refers to HICP for the euro area and CPI for the United States.
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
06 08 10 12 14
USA
Euro area
Figure 1.10. Unemployment in the euro area and the USAPer cent of the labour force
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
USA
Euro area
Sources: National Sources and the Riksbank
Figure 1.11. Housing investments in the USABillion USD
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
300
400
500
600
700
800
300
400
500
600
700
800
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Figure 1.12. World GDP and the world market for Swedish exportsAnnual percentage change
Sources: IMF and the RiksbankNote. The export market aims to measure import demand in the countries to which Sweden exports. This is calculated by aggregating the imports of the 15 countries receiving the most Swedish exports.
-7.5
-6.0
-4.5
-3.0
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Swedish export market (left scale)
World GDP (right scale)
Figure 1.13. TCW-weighted nominal exchange rate Index, 18 November 1992 = 100
110
120
130
140
150
160
110
120
130
140
150
160
06 08 10 12 14
April
July
Source: The RiksbankNote. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.
Figure 1.14. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
06 08 10 12 14
April
July
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.15. Swedish exports and the world market for Swedish exports Annual percentage change
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
06 08 10 12 14
Swedish export market
Swedish exports
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
Note. The export market aims to measure import demand in the countries to which Sweden exports. This is calculated by aggregating the imports of the 15 countries receiving the most Swedish exports.
Figure 1.16. Gross fixed capital formation and GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
06 08 10 12 14
GDP
Gross fixed capital formation
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.17. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio Annual percentage change and per cent of disposable income
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Consumption (left scale)
Disposable income (left scale)
Saving ratio (right scale)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Saving ratio including saving in collective insurance schemes.
Figure 1.18. Households’ wealth and debtPer cent of disposable income
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
86 91 96 01 06 11 16
Households' wealth (excluding collective insurancesaving)
Debt
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
Note. There is no regular publication of official data on household total wealth. The series refers to the Riksbank’s estimate of households’ financial assets and property assets. Q1 2012 is largely outcomes, while with effect from Q2 2012 the data is based on the Riksbank's assessments.
Figure 1.19. Number of hours worked and employedMillions and thousands, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
4,300
4,400
4,500
4,600
4,700
4,800
1,700
1,750
1,800
1,850
1,900
1,950
06 08 10 12 14
Number of hours worked (left scale)
Number of employed (right scale)
Figure 1.20. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
06 08 10 12 14
April
July
Figure 1.21. RU indicatorStandard deviation
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Source: The Riksbank Note. The RU indicator is normalised so that the mean value is 0 and the standard deviation is 1.
Figure 1.22. GDP-gap and the labour market gapPer cent
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
06 08 10 12 14
Hours gap
Employment gap
GDP gap
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
Note. GDP gap refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a production function. The hours gap refers to the deviation in the number of hours worked from the Riksbank’s assumed trend for the numbers of hours worked.
Figure 1.23. Wages according to the National Accounts and to the short-term wage statisticsAnnual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Short-term wages, definitive
Short-term wages, preliminary
National accounts
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The short-term wage statistics for the last 12 months are preliminary and are usually revised upwards. The dashed yellow line in the figure show the Riksbank’s assessment of the final outcome according to the statistics.
Figure 1.24. Cost pressures in the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Productivity
Labour cost per hour
Unit labour cost
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.25. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 08 10 12 14
CPIF excluding energy
CPIF
CPI
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Figure 1.26. CPIFAnnual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
06 08 10 12 14
April
July
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Figure 1.27. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 08 10 12 14
April
July
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 1.28. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
06 08 10 12 14
April
July
Source: The RiksbankNote. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period.
Figure 2.1. GDP in the euro areaQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
06 08 10 12 14
Confidence returns more quickly
Deeper debt crisis in Europe
Main scenario
Figure 2.2. GDP abroadTCW-weighed, quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Note. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
06 08 10 12 14
Confidence returns more quickly
Deeper debt crisis in Europe
Main scenario
Figure 2.3. Inflation abroadTCW-weighted, annual percentage change, quarterly averages
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Note. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-1
0
1
2
3
4
06 08 10 12 14
Confidence returns more quickly
Deeper debt crisis in Europe
Main scenario
Figure 2.4. Policy rate abroadTCW-weighted, per cent, quarterly averages
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Note. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 08 10 12 14
Confidence returns more quickly
Deeper debt crisis in Europe
Main scenario
Figure 2.5. TCW-weighted nominal exchange rateIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100, quarterly averages
Source: The RiksbankNote. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.
110
120
130
140
150
110
120
130
140
150
06 08 10 12 14
Deeper debt crisis in Europe and more expansionarymonetary policyDeeper debt crisis in Europe
Main scenario
Figure 2.6. ExportQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
06 08 10 12 14
Deeper debt crisis in Europe and moreexpansionary monetary policyDeeper debt crisis in Europe
Main scenario
Figure 2.7. Gross fixed capital formationQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
06 08 10 12 14
Deeper debt crisis in Europe and moreexpansionary monetary policy
Deeper debt crisis in Europe
Main scenario
Figure 2.8. Household consumptionQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
06 08 10 12 14
Deeper debt crisis in Europe and moreexpansionary monetary policy
Deeper debt crisis in Europe
Main scenario
Figure 2.9. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
06 08 10 12 14
Deeper debt crisis in Europe and moreexpansionary monetary policy
Deeper debt crisis in Europe
Main scenario
Figure 2.10. Hours gapPer cent
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
06 08 10 12 14
Deeper debt crisis in Europe and moreexpansionary monetary policy
Deeper debt crisis in Europe
Main scenario
Figure 2.11. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
06 08 10 12 14
Deeper debt crisis in Europe and more expansionary monetarypolicyDeeper debt crisis in Europe
Main scenario
Figure 2.12. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
Source: The Riksbank
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 08 10 12 14
Deeper debt crisis in Europe and more expansionary monetarypolicy
Deeper debt crisis in Europe
Main scenario
Figure 2.13. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
06 08 10 12 14
Confidence returns more quickly andmonetary policy is less expansionary
Confidence returns more quickly
Main scenario
Figure 2.14. Hours gapPer cent
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
06 08 10 12 14
Confidence returns more quickly and monetarypolicy is less expansionaryConfidence returns more quickly
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.15. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
06 08 10 12 14
Confidence returns more quickly and monetary policyis less expansionary
Confidence returns more quickly
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Figure 2.16. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 08 10 12 14
Confidence returns more quickly and monetarypolicy is less expansionary
Confidence returns more quickly
Main scenario
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.17. Alternative repo-rate pathsPer cent, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 08 10 12 14
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.18. Hours gapPer cent
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
06 08 10 12 14
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
Figure 2.19. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
06 08 10 12 14
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.20. CPIAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 08 10 12 14
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.21. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
06 08 10 12 14
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Figure 3.1. Government bond rates with 10 years left to maturityPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
05 07 09 11
United Kingdom
USA
Germany
Sweden
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 3.2. Government bond rates with 10 years left to maturityPer cent
Source: Reuters EcoWin
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
05 07 09 11
Spain
Italy
Figure 3.3. Stock market movementsIndex, 3 January 2006 = 100
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
05 07 09 11
Emerging markets (MSCI)USA (S&P 500)Euro area (EuroStoxx)Sweden (OMXS)
Sources: Morgan Stanley Capital International, Reuters EcoWin, Standard & Poor's and STOXX
Limited
Figure 3.4. Stock market volatilityPer cent
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
05 07 09 11
USA (VIX)
Euro area (EuroStoxx)
Sweden (OMX30)
Sources: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Reuters EcoWin and STOXX
Limited
Note. Implicit volatility is estimated on the basis of index-linked option prices.
Figure 3.5. Policy rate expectations measured in terms of market prices in the euro area and the USPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
06 08 10 12 14
FED, fed funds rate
ECB, refi rate
US, forward rates, 27 June 2012
Euro area, forward rates, 27 June 2012
US, forward rates, 12 April 2012
Euro area, forward rates 12 April 2012
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the
Riksbank
Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate, which is not always equivalent to the official policy rate.
Figure 3.6. Repo rate expectations in Sweden measured as market prices and survey, money market playersPer cent
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, TNS SIFO Prospera and the Riksbank
Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate.
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 08 10 12 14
Repo rate
Forward rate 12 April 2012
Forward rate 27 June 2012
Survey, Prospera average, 30 May2012
Figure 3.7. Interest rates in SwedenPer cent
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
Note. Referes to average of three-month listed mortgage rates from banks and mortgage institutions, the three month interbank rate and the monthly average for three month mortgage rates for new loans according to financial market statistics. Listed mortgage rates are the rates published by Nordea, SBAB, SEB, Swedbank Hypotek and Stadshypotek, for example in the daily press.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
05 07 09 11
Mortgages, averages
Interbank rate
Repo rate
Mortgages, interest rate according tofinancial market statistics
Figure 3.8. Bank lending to companies and householdsAnnual percentage change
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Companies
Households
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.9. Housing prices Index, 2008 = 100
Sources: Statistics Sweden and Valueguard
Note. The data from Valueguard is on a monthly rate and the data from Statistics Sweden is on a quarterly rate. Statistics Sweden's real estate price index is based on land registration data, while Valueguard's index is based on purchasing contracts. Purchasing contracts are normally registered about two months before land registration, which means that SCB's statistics lag behind the statistics from Valueguard.
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
05 07 09 11
Tenant-owned apartment prices(Valueguard)
Real estate price index (Valueguard)
House prices (Statistics Sweden)
Figure 3.10. TCW- and KIX-weighted nominal exchange ratesIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
05 07 09 11
KIX index
TCW index
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank
Note. TCW and KIX refer to different aggregates of currencies on the basis of trading patterns. KIX weights are updated regularly and cover a larger group of countries.
Figure 3.11. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
United Kingdom
USA
Euro area
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and Office for National
Statistics
Figure 3.12. Industrial productionIndex, January 2006 = 100
85
90
95
100
105
110
85
90
95
100
105
110
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
OECD
USA
Euro area
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Figure 3.13. Purchasing managers' index, manufacturing sectorIndex
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
BRIC
USA
Euro area
Source: Markit EconomicsNote. Values above 50 indicate growth.
Figure 3.14. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and Office for National Statistics
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
United Kingdom
USA
Euro area
Figure 3.15. GDP in Denmark and NorwayQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
05 07 09 11
Norway, mainland
Denmark
Sources: Statistics Denmark and Statistics Norway
Figure 3.16. GDP in the BRIC countriesAnnual percentage change
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
05 07 09 11
China
India
Russia
Brazil
Sources: Central Statistical Organisation, India, Federal State Statistics Service, Russia, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística and National Bureau of
Statistics of China
Note. The BRIC countries consist of Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Figure 3.17. World Import VolumeIndex, 2000 = 100, seasonally-adjusted data
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Emerging economies
Advanced economies
World
Figure 3.18. Consumer prices Annual percentage change
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
United Kingdom
USA
Euro area
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and Office for National
Statistics
Note. This refers to HICP for the euro area and CPI for the United States and the United Kingdom.
Figure 3.19. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.20. Production, export of goods and the retail sectorIndex, 2007 = 100
70
80
90
100
110
120
70
80
90
100
110
120
05 07 09 11
Retail sales
Export of goods
Services production
Industrial production
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.21. The Economic Tendency IndicatorIndex, mean = 100, standard deviation = 10
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
70
80
90
100
110
120
70
80
90
100
110
120
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
The Economic Tendency Indicator
Mean
+/- one standard deviation
Figure 3.22. New export ordersNet figures and annual percentage change
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Orders, Statistics Sweden (annual percentage change)
Orders, NIER (net figures)
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics
Sweden
Figure 3.23. Confidence indicators for householdsNet figures
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Micro index (personal finances)
Macro index (Sweden's economy)
Household confidence indicator
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 3.24. Employment, labour force and unemploymentThousands and per cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Three-month moving averages.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
4,000
4,200
4,400
4,600
4,800
5,000
5,200
05 07 09 11
Labour force (left scale)
Employed (left scale)
Unemployment (right scale)
Figure 3.25. New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy noticesThousands, seasonally-adjusted data
0
4
8
12
16
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Unfilled vacancies (left scale)
New vacancies (left scale)
Redundancy notices (right scale)
Sources: Employment Service and the Riksbank
Figure 3.26. Hiring plans and number of employed in the business sectorNet figures and annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: National Institute of Economics research and Statistics Sweden
Note. The net figures are defined as the difference between the proportion of firms reporting a wish to increase the number of employees and the proportion of firms reporting a wish to reduce numbers. Employment plans are on a monthly basis, number of employed is on a quarterly basis.
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Hiring plans according to NIER (left scale)
Number of employed according to National Accounts (rights scale)
Figure 3.27. Proportion of companies reporting a shortage of labourPer cent, seasonally-adjusted data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Private sector industries
Retail trade
Construction sector
Manufacturing industry
Source: National Insitute of Economic Research
Figure 3.28. WagesAnnual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Business sector
Public sector
Sources: National Mediation Office and the
Riksbank
Note. Preliminary outcomes in the past 12 months, usually revised upwards.
Figure 3.29. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
CPIF excluding energy
CPIF
CPI
Source: Statistics SwedenNote. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed interest rate.
Figure 3.30. Expectations of inflation one year aheadPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Companies
Households
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Note. Company figures are quarterly, while households are monthly.
Figure 3.31. All respondents' expectations of inflation one, two and five years aheadPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
5 years
2 years
1 year
Source: TNS SIFO Prospera
Figure A1. Support programme measuresBillion EUR
Sources: European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and European Financial Stability
Mechanism (EFSM)
Note. Lending capacity in the ESM is attained through payments of capital made up to the end of 2014. The remaining lending capacity in the EFSF and the EFSM is only intended for use while waiting for the ESM to attain full capacity. This means that the total outstanding lending capacity will not exceed EUR 500 billion.
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
100
200
300
400
500
EFSF EFSM ESM
Outstanding lending capacity
Commitments to Portugal
Commitments to Ireland
Commitments to Greece
Figure A2. Government bond rates in various countries (difference compared to Germany)Percentage points
Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
08 09 10 11 12
Spain
Italy
Figure A3. Government bond rates in various countries (difference compared to Germany)Percentage points
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
08 09 10 11 12
Portugal
Ireland
Greece
Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
Figure A4. Relationship between different labour market variables
Average working hours
Hours worked
Population
In the labour force
Outside thelabour force
Unemployed Employed
Figure A5. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, aged 15-74
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Outcome
Mean 1999-2011
Mean 1999-2006
Mean 1980-1991
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure A6. Model estimates of unemployment trendsPer cent of labour force, aged 15-74
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
UC trend cycle
UC gap
SVAR
Unemployment
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
Note. SVAR is a structural VAR model. UC stands for unobserved component, which is a statistical method for estimating unobserved trends.
Figure A7. Proportion of companies reporting a shortage of labour, total for the business sectorPer cent, seasonally-adjusted data
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure A8. Vacancy ratePercentage of labour force
Source: Statistics Sweden
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
01 03 05 07 09 11
Figure A9. Average recruitment time in the business sectorNumber of months, seasonally-adjusted data
Source: Statistics Sweden
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
01 03 05 07 09 11
Figure A10. Wages in the whole economy according to short-term wage statistics Annual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11
Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank
Figure A11. Labour force participationPer cent of the population, aged 16-64
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Outcome
Mean 1999-2011
Mean 1999-2006
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure A12. Number of sick outside of the labour forceThousands, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data
320
350
380
410
440
470
500
320
350
380
410
440
470
500
05 07 09 11
Actual data
Trend
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure A13. Unemployment Per cent of the labour force, aged 15-74
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
04 06 08 10
Vulnerable groups
Non-vulnerable groups
Total
Sources: Employment Service and Statistics Sweden
Figure A14. Beveridge curvePer cent of the labour force
Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Years mark the first quarter of the respective year.
2001
2002
2003
2004 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
5.50 6.50 7.50 8.50 9.50
Vac
ancy
rat
e
Unemployment
Figure A15. GDP growth in Sweden and the euro areaAnnual percentage change
Source: OECD
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Euro area
Sweden
Figure A16. Unemployment in Sweden and the euro areaPer cent of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Euro area
Sweden
Source: OECD
Figure A17. HICP in Sweden, the euro area, Switzerland and NorwayAnnual percentage change
-2
0
2
4
6
-2
0
2
4
6
05 07 09 11
Norway
Switzerland
Euro area
Sweden
Sources: Eurostat and Statistics Sweden
Note. HICP refers to the Harmonised Index for Consumer Prices.
Figure A18. Exchange rate SwedenSEK/EUR
Source: Reuters EcoWin
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
05 07 09 11
Figure A19. Exchange rate for Sweden, Switzerland and NorwayAnnual percentage change
-20
-10
0
10
20
-20
-10
0
10
20
05 07 09 11
NOK/EUR
CHF/EUR
SEK/EUR
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure A20. Foods in HICP and commodity prices on the world market for foodAnnual percentage change
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
05 07 09 11
World market price (left scale)
Euro area (right scale)
Sweden (right scale)
Sources: Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and The Economist
Note. World market price for food refers to The Economist’s Commodity Price Index for food.
Figure A21. Goods in HICP for Sweden and the euro areaAnnual percentage change
Sources: Eurostat and Statistics Sweden
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
05 07 09 11
Euro area
Sweden
Figure A22. Services in HICP for Sweden and the euro areaAnnual percentage change
Sources: Eurostat and Statistics Sweden
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
05 07 09 11
Euro area
Sweden
Figure A23. HICP for Sweden and the euro areaAnnual percentage change
Sources: Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 08 10 12 14
Euro area
Sweden
Tables
Table 1. Repo rate forecastPer cent, quarterly average values
Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Repo rate 1.5 1.5 (1.5) 1.4 (1.5) 1.6 (1.8) 2.4 (2.6) 3.1
Source: The Riksbank
Table 2. InflationAnnual percentage change, annual average
2011 2012 2013 2014
CPI 3.0 (3.0) 1.1 (1.2) 1.7 (1.9) 2.8 (2.9)
CPIF 1.4 (1.4) 1.0 (1.1) 1.7 (1.7) 2.1 (2.0)
CPIF excl. energy 1.0 (1.0) 1.2 (1.0) 1.7 (1.6) 2.0 (2.0)
HICP 1.4 (1.4) 1.0 (1.1) 1.7 (1.7) 2.1 (2.0)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The rate of change in the CPI is based on revised index figures, which may differ from the established index figures. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. HICP is an EU harmonised index of consumer prices.
2011 2012 2013 2014 Repo rate 1.8 (1.8) 1.5 (1.5) 1.6 (1.7) 2.3 (2.5) 10-year rate 2.7 (2.6) 1.6 (2.1) 2.5 (3.1) 3.5 (3.9) Exchange rate. TCW-index. 1992-11-18=100 122.3 (122.3) 122.6 (120.3) 118.6 (117.8) 118.2 (118.2) General government net lending* 0.1 (0.1) 0.1 (-0.1) 0.2 (0.2) 1.0 (0.9)
Table 3. Summary of financial forecastsPer cent, unless otherwise stated, annual average
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
* Per cent of GDP
Table 4. International conditionsAnnual percentage change
Note. The figures in parentheses indicate the global purchasing-power adjusted GDP-weights, according to the IMF.The Swedish export market index is calculated as a weighted average of the imports of the 15 countries which are the largest recipients of Swedish exports. They receive approximately 70 per cent of Swedish exports. The weight assigned to a country is its share of Swedish exports of goods.
Sources: Eurostat. IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank
GDP 2011 2012 2013 2014
Euro area (0.14) 1.5 (1.5) -0.4 (-0.3) 0.4 (1.1) 1.9 (2.3)
USA (0.20) 1.7 (1.7) 2.2 (2.3) 2.4 (2.4) 3.2 (3.2) Japan (0.06) -0.7 (-0.7) 2.7 (1.8) 1.6 (1.6) 1.0 (0.9)
OECD (0.55) 1.9 (1.8) 1.5 (1.6) 1.9 (2.1) 2.6 (2.7)
TCW-weighted (0.47) 1.3 (1.3) 0.4 (0.5) 1.1 (1.5) 2.1 (2.3)
World (1.00) 3.9 (3.8) 3.5 (3.5) 3.7 (4.0) 4.2 (4.3)
CPI 2011 2012 2013 2014 Euro area (HICP) 2.7 (2.7) 2.4 (2.3) 1.6 (1.7) 1.7 (1.6) USA 3.2 (3.2) 2.0 (2.0) 1.8 (1.8) 1.9 (1.9) Japan -0.3 (0.0) 0.1 (0.0) 0.1 (0.0) 0.3 (0.0)
TCW-weighted 2.6 (2.6) 2.1 (2.1) 1.6 (1.7) 1.7 (1.6)
2011 2012 2013 2014 Policy rates in the rest of the world. TCW-weighted, per cent
0.8 (0.8) 0.4 (0.4) 0.4 (0.4) 0.7 (0.8)
Crude oil price, USD/barrel Brent 111 (111) 105 (121) 95 (115) 93 (107) Swedish export market 3.9 (3.7) 1.4 (1.9) 3.5 (4.3) 6.3 (6.3)
2011 2012 2013 2014 Private consumption 2.0 (2.1) 1.5 (1.0) 1.6 (1.8) 2.5 (2.5) Public consumption 1.8 (1.8) 0.5 (0.5) 0.9 (0.7) 0.7 (0.5) Gross fixed capital formation 6.2 (5.8) 4.7 (0.7) 1.5 (3.5) 5.5 (5.6) Inventory investment* 0.6 (0.7) -1.2 (-0.7) 0.2 (-0.2) 0.1 (0.0) Exports 6.9 (6.8) -0.3 (0.5) 3.4 (4.9) 6.5 (6.7) Imports 6.3 (6.1) -0.5 (-0.2) 3.4 (4.7) 6.7 (6.8) GDP 3.9 (3.9) 0.6 (0.4) 1.7 (1.9) 2.8 (2.8) GDP, calendar-adjusted 4.0 (4.0) 0.9 (0.8) 1.7 (1.9) 2.9 (2.9) Final figure for domestic demand* 2.6 (2.6) 1.7 (0.7) 1.3 (1.7) 2.4 (2.4) Net exports* 0.7 (0.7) 0.1 (0.4) 0.2 (0.5) 0.3 (0.4) Current account (NA), per cent of GDP 7.0 (7.2) 6.6 (7.4) 6.6 (7.6) 6.5 (7.6)
Table 5. GDP by expenditureAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. The figures show actual growth rates that have not been calendar-adjusted, unless otherwise stated. NA is the National Accounts.
Table 6. Production and employmentAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Potential hours refer to the long-term sustainable level for the number of hours worked.
* Per cent of the labour force
2011 2012 2013 2014 Population, aged 16-64 0.3 (0.3) 0.1 (0.1) 0.2 (0.0) 0.2 (0.0) Potential hours worked 0.8 (0.8) 0.6 (0.4) 0.5 (0.3) 0.4 (0.3) GDP, calendar-adjusted 4.0 (4.0) 0.9 (0.8) 1.7 (1.9) 2.9 (2.9) Number of hours worked, calendar-adjusted 2.2 (2.3) 0.5 (0.2) 0.1 (0.1) 0.9 (0.8) Employed, aged 15-74 2.1 (2.1) 0.3 (-0.1) 0.4 (0.5) 1.1 (0.9) Labour force, aged 15-74 1.2 (1.2) 0.4 (0.1) 0.5 (0.4) 0.3 (0.1) Unemployment, aged 15-74 * 7.5 (7.5) 7.6 (7.7) 7.7 (7.7) 7.0 (6.9)
2011 2012 2013 2014 Hourly wage, NMO 2.6 (2.7) 3.1 (3.3) 3.2 (3.2) 3.5 (3.4) Hourly wage, NA 3.4 (3.3) 3.3 (3.5) 3.5 (3.4) 3.8 (3.7) Employer’s contribution* -0.2 (-0.3) 0.2 (0.3) 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) Hourly labour cost, NA 3.1 (3.1) 3.5 (3.8) 3.5 (3.4) 3.8 (3.7)
Productivity 1.7 (1.7) 0.4 (0.6) 1.7 (1.8) 1.9 (2.1)
Unit labour cost 1.4 (1.4) 3.1 (3.2) 1.8 (1.6) 1.8 (1.5)
Table 7. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. NMO is the National Mediation Office’s short-term wage statistics and NA is the National Accounts. Labour cost per hour is defined as the sum of actual wages. collective charges and wage taxes divided by the seasonally adjusted total number of hours worked. Unit labour cost is defined as labour cost divided by seasonally adjusted value added at constant prices.
* Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points.
2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP abroad 1.3 (1.3) 0.1 (0.4) -0.6 (1.1) 0.8 (2.1) Inflation abroad 2.6 (2.6) 2.0 (2.1) 1.3 (1.6) 1.1 (1.7) Interest rate abroad, per cent 0.8 (0.8) 0.3 (0.4) 0.1 (0.4) 0.1 (0.7) CPIF 1.4 (1.4) 1.1 (1.0) 2.1 (1.7) 1.5 (2.1) GDP 4.0 (4.0) 0.5 (0.9) -1.2 (1.7) 1.3 (2.9) Repo rate, per cent 1.8 (1.8) 1.5 (1.5) 1.3 (1.6) 1.0 (2.3) Unemployment, aged 15-74* 7.5 (7.5) 7.6 (7.6) 7.9 (7.7) 7.9 (7.0) TCW-weighted exchange rate, 18 Nov. 1992 = 100 122.3 (122.3) 124.3 (122.6) 120.8 (118.6) 118.2 (118.2)
Table 8. Alternative scenario: deeper debt crisis in EuropeAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario, TCW-weighted foreign variables. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
* Per cent of the labour force
Table 9. Alternative scenario: deeper debt crisis in Europe and more expansionary monetary policyAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
2011 2012 2013 2014 CPIF 1.4 (1.4) 1.2 (1.0) 2.5 (1.7) 2.1 (2.1) GDP 4.0 (4.0) 0.6 (0.9) -0.5 (1.7) 1.8 (2.9) Repo rate, per cent 1.8 (1.8) 1.2 (1.5) 0.5 (1.6) 0.5 (2.3) Unemployment, aged 15-74* 7.5 (7.5) 7.6 (7.6) 7.5 (7.7) 7.2 (7.0)
Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
* Per cent of the labour force
Table 10. Alternative scenario: confidence returns soonerAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario. TCW-weighted foreign variables. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
* Per cent of the labour force
2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP abroad 1.3 (1.3) 0.5 (0.4) 1.5 (1.1) 2.6 (2.1) Inflation abroad 2.6 (2.6) 2.1 (2.1) 1.9 (1.6) 1.9 (1.7) Interest rate abroad, per cent 0.8 (0.8) 0.4 (0.4) 0.6 (0.4) 1.2 (0.7) CPIF 1.4 (1.4) 1.0 (1.0) 1.7 (1.7) 2.4 (2.1) GDP 4.0 (4.0) 1.1 (0.9) 2.8 (1.7) 3.4 (2.9) Repo rate, per cent 1.8 (1.8) 1.6 (1.5) 2.1 (1.6) 3.1 (2.3) Unemployment, aged 15-74* 7.5 (7.5) 7.6 (7.6) 7.3 (7.7) 6.3 (7.0) TCW-weighted exchange rate, 18 Nov. 1992 = 100 122.3 (122.3) 122.3 (122.6) 117.7 (118.6) 118.0 (118.2)
Table 11. Alternative scenario: confidence returns sooner and monetary policy is less expansionaryAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
2011 2012 2013 2014 CPIF 1.4 (1.4) 1.0 (1.0) 1.7 (1.7) 2.2 (2.1) GDP 4.0 (4.0) 1.1 (0.9) 2.7 (1.7) 3.1 (2.9) Repo rate, per cent 1.8 (1.8) 1.6 (1.5) 2.3 (1.6) 3.5 (2.3) Unemployment, aged 15-74* 7.5 (7.5) 7.6 (7.6) 7.4 (7.7) 6.5 (7.0)
Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
* Per cent of the labour force
Table 12. Alternative scenario: higher repo rateAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
2011 2012 2013 2014 Repo rate, per cent 1.8 (1.8) 1.6 (1.5) 1.7 (1.6) 2.3 (2.3) CPIF 1.4 (1.4) 1.0 (1.0) 1.5 (1.7) 2.0 (2.1) CPI 3.0 (3.0) 1.2 (1.1) 1.6 (1.7) 2.6 (2.8) Hours gap, per cent -0.4 (-0.4) -0.5 (-0.4) -1.0 (-0.9) -0.5 (-0.3) Unemployment, aged 15-74* 7.5 (7.5) 7.6 (7.6) 7.8 (7.7) 7.1 (7.0) GDP gap, per cent -0.2 (-0.2) -0.9 (-0.9) -1.2 (-1.0) -0.5 (-0.2)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
* Per cent of the labour force
Table 13. Alternative scenario: lower repo rateAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
2011 2012 2013 2014 Repo rate, per cent 1.8 (1.8) 1.4 (1.5) 1.4 (1.6) 2.3 (2.3) CPIF 1.4 (1.4) 1.0 (1.0) 1.8 (1.7) 2.2 (2.1) CPI 3.0 (3.0) 1.0 (1.1) 1.8 (1.7) 3.1 (2.8) Hours gap, per cent -0.4 (-0.4) -0.4 (-0.4) -0.7 (-0.9) -0.2 (-0.3) Unemployment, aged 15-74* 7.5 (7.5) 7.6 (7.6) 7.5 (7.7) 6.8 (7.0) GDP gap, per cent -0.2 (-0.2) -0.8 (-0.9) -0.8 (-1.0) 0.0 (-0.2)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
* Per cent of the labour force
Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.