Monash Sustainability Institute The impact of climate change on Australians at risk of social...

Monash Sustainability Institute

The impact of climate change on Australians at risk of social

exclusion

Janet Stanley

Monash Sustainability Institute2

Overview

1. The meaning of social exclusion

2. The problem of climate change

3. The link between social exclusion and climate change

4. How socially excluded people will be impacted by climate change in Australia

5. Solutions


1. The meaning of Social Exclusion

Who is at risk of SE?Aged, children, low income,

unemployed, rurally isolated, new migrants/refugees, Indigenous people, those with a disability, poor health, single parent families

Meaning of SE:• Concept from SEU in UK

• Multiple inter-related factors

• Barriers to inclusion in society‘I used to nick cars because there’s nothing else to do. You’re just walking around at two in the morning and there’s a car and why not? It’s better than just walking around’


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Family size

Lack of community services

Government policy

Physical ill-health

Ethnic background

Migration/resettlement process issue

Disability

Homelessness

Low education attainment

Housing problems

Family violence

Personal/family isolation

Family relationship problem/s

Substance abuse

Unemployment

Mental health issues

Sole parent family

Low incomeC

au

se

% of survey respondents

Multiple dis-advantages form SE


Social Exclusion

A no. of ways it is ‘officially’ measured, commonly:

• Income – dominant• Employment status• Social interaction &/or

access to basic services, &/or participation

• Civic engagement

London School of Economics

A complicated concept:– Circular – Usually not an absolute

measure – measured over time

– No benchmarks or thresholds established

– Defined to mean what people want it to mean

– However it is useful: highlights an important group of issues


2. Climate Change

High tide - Iama IslandHigh tide - Iama Island


Climate Change


Global emissions are growing at the worst-case end of IPCC predictions

10

Source: Garnaut Draft Report, 2008

Actual

IPCC worst case


The evidence for warming of the climate system is unequivocal

• Surface temperatures increasing• Ocean heating• Atmospheric water vapour content

increasing• Ice sheets losing mass & glaciers

melting• More intense and longer droughts• Frequency of heavy precipitation

events increasing• Extreme temperatures increasing• Tropical cyclone intensity

increasing

HighHigh tide - Iama Islandtide - Iama Island


There will be an introduction of government measures to reduce cc

• ETS – put a price on carbon emissions

• Encouragement of voluntary behaviour change – such as energy efficiencies

• Remove perverse incentive such as rate decoupling for electricity and water

• Regulation – such as vehicle emissions, energy efficiency standards for housing

• Infra-structure – such as better urban planning and provision of public transport


3. The link between social exclusion and climate change - Key points:

1. Climate change and associated impacts will disproportionately impact on low income households.

2. Policy responses aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions will have a social cost

3. There is a risk that new groups of disadvantaged Australians will be created

4. Climate change provides opportunities in relation to:

– Employment opportunities for low skilled and unemployed people

– Reduction of energy costs in the longer term– Community involvement, social inclusion,

independence and engagement


Climate change itself will disproportionately impact on low income households

• Health impacts – heatwaves, the changed distribution of water-borne diseases, food-borne diseases, exposure to solar radiation (skin cancer) and respiratory diseases

• Housing and public spaces –access to public open space for sport and recreation, protection of houses from extreme events, vulnerability of homeless or experiencing severe housing stress

• Impacts on rural Australia – economic viability of some rural industries and the communities that are built around them, which raises the possibility of forced internal migration

• Indigenous Australians – particularly those in remote communities in northern Australia. Loss of business opportunities

• Refugees seeking humanitarian access – especially from our Pacific neighbours, rising sea levels and increased storms. The land areas affected, although relatively small, are home to millions of people, who will become displaced.

• Increase costs of basic necessities – food, energy, water• Employment changes


Policy response will disproportionately impact on disadvantaged people: Impact of a price on carbon

Householdtype

Per annumcost@

$25 & $50

Annual carbon consumption

(tonnes)

Carbon cost % of expenditure

(utility adjusted and

household equivalised)

$A25 $A50

Poor $558 $1,115 22.3 2.3 4.6

High income $1,445 $2891 57.8 0.4 0.7

Impact of a $25 & $50/t CO2(e) carbon price on Aust/n household types


Climate change and climate change policy may increase the severity of SE lead to higher levels of SE in Australia

Poor households lack the capacity to respond to cc:

– They have little discretionary spending

– They lack the financial resources needed to invest in energy efficiency or upgrade energy-using appliances at home

– They lack access to information on behavioural changes that can help them reduce their use of energy

– Low price elasticity of necessities

This is an argument for equity, not one against action on CC


Increase in people at risk of social exclusion

Poverty line

13.7% Australians

4.7% Aust/nsadded

Carbon tax of $50/tonne

Need $80/tonne by 2020 to keep temperature below 2 degree rise


Principles for policy around carbon reduction

• Responsibility – creators of carbon pollution should pay

• Capacity – those with the greatest capacity should pay the most

• Vulnerability – those most vulnerable need assistance on the grounds of equity and efficiency


Examples of problems/solutions Examples of problems/solutions (a) Low income renters in the private rental market

• Many low income people are in the private rental market

• Structural energy efficiencies: insulation, hot water services, heating, draft excluding the house etc

• Responsibility of landlord to improve energy efficiencies of housing structure? Risk of rent rises

• Possible solutions: – Mandate energy efficiency standards for all rental

housing at point of rental tenant change– Longer tenant agreements

• Need to change body corporate rules


Examples of problems/solutions b) Transport We need to get people out of cars to reduce carbon

Cars

Buses

Trucks

Aviation

RailShipping

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Emis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO 2-

eq)

Light Commercial vehicles

88% road transport


We need to get people out of cars to reduce carbon Forced car ownership – Graham Currie

Transport poverty is where a household is forced to consume more in travel costs than it can reasonably afford

20,800 households in Melbourne who earn less than $500 a week own two or more cars.

– ‘Hidden inequity’ - forced car ownership

Average weekly running costs for a new medium size car - $210 per week

A carbon tax will result in car ownership for many moving from ‘forced’ to ‘impossible’


Average annual use of CO2 (tonnes) by poor households in Melbourne LGAs 2006

@ $35/tonne

$1164 to @1220 extra per annum for red LGAs


Average annual use of CO2 per Victorian LGA for poor households 2006

Average carbon use

Poor households

33 .5 to 37 .3 (14)

32 .1 to 33 .5 (15)

30 .7 to 32 .1 (17)

29 .8 to 30 .7 (2)

28.0 to 29 .8 (1)

not applicable

@ $35/tonne, extra cost of $1173 to $1306 annually for red LGAs


• The highest priority should be to ensure the availability of a decent base (minimum) public transport service

– Service coverage, frequency and span of hours (MSL); – Also, reliability, connectivity, service information

• This suggests a minimum service level for buses of:– Minimum hourly frequency, seven days – Weekdays 6am to 9pm (start of last bus)– Saturday 7am to 9pm– Sunday 8am to 9pm– Friday nights & Saturday nights possibly later

• The Victorian Government is implementing this MSL to target social exclusion (“social transit” initiative)

Solution: Bus minimum service


Beyond service levels: Up-grading of infrastructure around the bus system becomes vital to further patronage growth: footpaths, bus stops, lighting, customer service, safety

Christchurch (NZ) Bus Terminal


Examples of problems/solutions (c) Programs to assist people

• Energy and WaterTask Force

• The project assists low income Victorians in the following ways:

– Lowering energy bills (12% reduction per household)– Improving the comfort and quality of their homes – Improving water efficiency – Reducing waste – Providing job training opportunities

• Over 3000 homes have been retrofitted since 2003• 70% of Interim Labour Market’s participants transition into the

open labour market


Role of welfare sector?

• Knowledge and experience to assist those at risk of SE to fairly adjust to cc and take up the opportunities

• In 2020 may be $7 billion annually raised from ETS• Garnaut – 50% to households on principles of

equity• Opportunity for welfare to receive payments to

assist vulnerable households (?)• More natural emergencies• Psychological stress• Opportunity (necessity) for building communities

and networks


Possible scenario for a carbon-constrained Australia

• A low income household set up with solar panels on the roof and a water collection system

• The excess energy and water is sold back to the energy grid and water distribution system

• The household has almost zero energy and water costs and a new source of revenue!

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