“Developing a model of crimes’ perceptions of people

in the United Kingdom”

Mohammad Shan-A-KhudaLeeds Metropolitan University

4th Annual Information Studies Postgraduate Symposium

Manchester Metropolitan University Date: 05th May, 2011

Outline of presentation

Purposes of project undertaken Categories of research aspects Gaps in previous research Sources of data Data analysis A simple statistical model A simple mathematical model

Purposes

To design appropriate Data collection and analysis techniques for peoples’ perception of crimes

Devise a model (mix of qualitative and quantitative) to establish the relationships among the factors of perception of crimes such as age, neighbourhood, crime categories in order to explore the gap between perception and reality; relationship between perception and fear of crimes

The 6Ps of research

ProductsPurpose Presentatio

nProcess

Participants

Paradigm

J. Oates, B. (2006) Researching Information Systems and Computing. London, SAGE Publications Ltd

Gaps in previous research

Figure 1.1 A simple spray can image from Water’s model Figure 1.2 Comparison with real crime(green)

with real perceptions (purple)Waters, T. (September, 2002) A Java Public Participation Gis Using a Spray Can Tool for an Investigation on the Perception of Crime in Leeds. Leeds, Department of Geograhpy. University of Leeds.

Shan-a-Khuda, M. (September 2005) A Qualitative and Quantitative Model of Crime and Crime Perceptions. Leeds, School of Computing. University of Leeds.

loss of information through the computational process

Unconvincing tackling of the issues of continuation of research on perception of crimes in the changing aspects of social circumstances

Data collection and Analysis Nature of data

British Crime Survey, April, 2007-March, 2008

Mix of qualitative and quantitative

Experience of crime within 12 months prior to interview

42 Police Force Areas (PFA) of England and Wales

Adults 16 over (focus on Representative individual) in Private House Holds

Sample size: 46, 983 including both victim and non victim

Unaffected by the changes in levels of reporting to the police, and police recording practices

Steps in data analysis Determining the contributing variables of

perception of crimes

Evidencing the relationships among the variables through proper quantitative

and qualitative analysis such as statistical modelling, data triangulation.

Devise a mathematical model Confirming the results of mathematical model

through a qualitative model

Variable Name Description Type

serial Serial number (6 Digits) Numeric and Scale

age Age of the respondent 1 in the household Numeric and Scale

burgreg How likely it will be burgled in the next year

1= “Very likely” 2= “Fairly likely” 3= “Fairly unlikely” 4= “Very unlikely”8= “Refused” 9 = “Don’t know”

Numeric and Scale

sprob How likely is it people in neighbourhood participate in an organization to help solve a community problem

1= “Very likely” 2= “Likely” 3= “Unlikely” 4= “Very unlikely”

Numeric and Scale

educint Do you have any qualifications

1= “Yes” 2= “No”8= “Refused” 9= “Don’t know”

Numeric and Scale

educat2Highest Qualification

1 = “Higher Degree, etc.” 2= “First Degree, etc.” 3= “Diplomas, etc. “ 4= “A/ AS level, etc.”

5= “Trade Apprenticeships” 6= “O-level / GCSE Grades A-C” 7= “O- level / GCSE Grades D-G” 8= Others qualifications(Including overseas)

98= “Refused” 99= “Don’t know”

Numeric and Scale

     

Graph showing relationship between neighbourhood cohesion and likelihood of burgled in the next year

Graph showing relationship between an individual’s highest qualification and likelihood of burgled in the next year

A Generalized Linear Model

Outline of proposed mathematical model

Dependent and Independent variables There are two different aspects:

i. “locality reference” and

ii. “perceived crime rate” “locality reference” will be measured through two different independent variables:

a. ‘home’: It covers the aspects of perception of crimes where people see the evidence of crime activities around the place where he or she lives in.

b. ‘remote’: It covers peoples’ perceptions about outside of their home. This sort of perception is formed through the reading newspapers, chatting with other people, watching films,etc.

Parameters estimation

Outline of proposed mathematical model (Parameters continued)

The second dependent variable “rate of perceived crime” will be measured through four different qualitative measurements:

a. “perceived vehicle crime rate”b. “perceived antisocial behaviour occurrences”c. “perceived occurrences of burglary”d. “perceived occurrences of drug and gang crime”

Some of the independent variables are the index asking the respondents what area code they are living in, how long they are living for, how they think the extent “people driving the above the speed limit”, “teenagers hanging around on the streets”, “people using or dealing drugs”, “Homes being broken into and property stolen” and “How many times they have felt fearful”.

Demographic variables

The demographic variables are age, gender, ethnicity and area code.

Outline of proposed mathematical model

i. x = X: {x1,x2,x3,x4}

where X=demographic variable and x1= Age; x2 = Gender; x3 =Ethnicity and x4 = area code ...............................................( i ) ii.

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