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    McKinsey onFinance

    High techs coming consolidation 1

    Economic pressures to restructure high tech will eventually become

    irresistible. More acquisitions loom.

    When efficient capital and operations go hand in hand 7

    Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, Nokias head of mobile phones and a formerCFO, discusses strategic organization, performance measurement, athe value of financial transparency.

    All P/Es are not created equal 12

    High price-to-earnings ratios are about more than just growth.Understanding the ingredients that go into a strong multiple can helexecutives make the most of this strategic tool.

    Putting value back in value-based management 16

    Value-based management programs focus too much on measuremenand too little on the management activities that create shareholder v

    Perspectives on

    Corporate Finance

    and Strategy

    Number 11, Spring

    2004

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    McKinsey & Company is an international management-consulting firm serving corporate and government

    institutions from 85 offices in 47 countries.

    Editorial Board: Richard Dobbs, Marc Goedhart, Keiko Honda, Bill Javetski, Timothy Koller,

    Robert McNish, Dennis Swinford

    Editorial Contact: [email protected]

    Editor: Dennis Swinford

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    Copyright 2004 McKinsey & Company. All rights reserved.Cover images, left to right: Paul Schulenburg/Stock Illustration Source/Images.com, Corbis, Bonnie Rieser/

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    No part of this publication may be copied or redistributed in any form without the prior written consent of

    McKinsey & Company.

    McKinsey on Finance is a quarterly publication written by experts and practitioners in McKinsey & Companys

    Corporate Finance & Strategy Practice. It offers readers insights into value-creating strategies and the translation of

    those strategies into stock market performance. This and archive issues of McKinsey on Finance are available online

    at http://www.corporatefinance.mckinsey.com

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    For some time, the rules of economics

    appeared not to apply to the high-

    technology sector. Growth slowed, profits

    shrank, and investors eagerly awaited the

    billions of dollars in value likely to flow

    from mergers, acquisitions, downsizings,

    and liquidations. All signs pointed to an

    imminent restructuring, yet until recently

    little occurred.

    Today consolidation pressures are mountingfast, and some segments have already

    succumbed. Where operating systems for

    PCs, midrange computers, and mainframes

    were once numerous, now only a few

    remain. Ditto for database software. Niche

    players in segments such as vertical-specific

    applications may remain fragmented, thanks

    in part to the unique nature of the value

    propositions they offer.

    To develop a sense of how imminent

    consolidation really is, and to pinpoint the

    segments within and outside high tech that

    might encounter challenges or opportunities

    in the trend, we investigated the extent to

    which the economic forces driving

    consolidation were at play in 21 of the

    sectors leading industries. The indicator

    we looked at included each industrys

    fragmentation levels, maturity (as measu

    by growth rates), and profitability. We al

    considered incentives for consolidation, s

    as the need for scale to justify larger cap

    expenditures and the importance of scop

    to meet the customers changing needs.1

    Where and how

    We found strong signs of impending

    restructuring in 11 of the industries we

    analyzed (Exhibit 1). These hot spots

    account for more than two-thirds of the

    sectors revenuesa fact that speaks

    volumes about its ripeness for consolidati

    In IT services, for example, professional a

    outsourcing services seem to be poised fo

    an across-the-board restructuring. Softw

    is vulnerable in particular areas, such as

    enterprise applications, network and syst

    management and security, middleware, an

    software for application servers. In

    hardware, the targets are PCs and notebo

    computers, networking gear, and storage

    systems; in semiconductors, they are logic

    memory, and semiconductor equipment. research also found many small and mids

    companies that are barely profitable, if at

    all, with cost structures more appropriate

    larger businesses (Exhibit 2).

    As economic forces take effect, compani

    will jockey for increased scale or scope o

    for some combination of both (Exhibit 3

    As in any sector, scale-driven mergers,

    which aim to streamline fixed costs overgreater volumes and to satisfy the deman

    for bigger and more stable suppliers, wil

    mostly take place between companies

    competing in the same industry. Custom

    needs will also influence mergers that are

    undertaken to achieve advantages of scop

    Indeed, deals of this nature have already

    High techs coming

    consolidation

    Economic pressures to restructure high tech

    will eventually become irresistible. More

    acquisitions loom.

    High techs coming consolidation

    Bertil E. Chappuis,

    Kevin A. Frick, and

    Paul J. Roche

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    taken place: in response to financialpressures and to the clamor of capital

    markets, companies that manufacture

    technology products have been acquiring

    service firms. We expect such mergers to

    proliferate as companies expand their

    breadth of product or service offerings to

    position themselves as preferred suppliers

    for big customers, to chase new profit

    streams, and to hunt for cross-selling and

    multichannel synergies.

    The semiconductor-equipment industry, for

    one, is likely to see both scale and scope

    come into play as companies prepare to

    serve fewer and bigger semiconductor

    manufacturers, only some of which will be

    able to finance next-generation research and

    fabrication plants. Consolidation hasalready taken place in certain pockets, such

    as deposition, diffusion, and lithography,

    but the industry as a whole remains

    fragmented; only a handful of companies,

    including Applied Materials and Tokyo

    Electron, have significant positions in more

    than one or two areas. The need to

    consolidate will therefore inspire scale deal

    in the few areas that are still fragmented

    (automation, assembly, and packaging),while demand for complete process-module

    solutions means that scope deals are likely

    across industries. Vendors will thus capture

    sales and marketing synergies by selling to

    the same customer base. Moreover, an

    integrated solution across related areas

    (such as deposition and etching) can shorte

    2 | McKinsey on Finance | Spring 2004

    1Metrics examined include market growth rate, 200207 (industry maturity); HerfindahlHirschman Index (fragmentation levels); number of top 10companies with negative earnings before interest and taxes in 2002 (industry profitability); qualitative assessment of scale, scope, changes in customerbuying behavior (incentives for consolidation).

    Source: McKinsey analysis

    e x h i b i t 1

    Ripe for restructuring

    Key IT industries and segments,1 2002, % of revenues

    Ripe for restructuring

    Network/systemsmanagement, security

    Middleware,application server

    Enterprise applications

    Operating systems

    Vertical applications

    Database

    Desktop applications

    Storage

    Software ($146 billion)

    PCs/notebooks

    Networking

    Servers

    Smart handhelds

    Printers

    Storage

    Hardware ($299 billion)

    IT services ($243 billion)

    Professional andoutsourcing services

    17

    35

    28

    20

    Semiconductor equipment

    Logic

    Microcomponents

    Memory

    Analog

    Discrete

    Semiconductors ($174 billion)

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    development cycles and ramp-up times. The

    enterprise software market will restructure

    along similar lines.

    Restructuring could also be triggered by

    companies that exit an industry altogether.

    This is likely to happen in the PC business if

    some incumbents decide that the benefits of

    merging are questionable in light of theindustrys deteriorating economics. Finally,

    where mergers and acquisitions dont make

    sense, companies might forge alliances or

    transform themselves without resorting to

    alliances or M&A.

    Shape IT or leave IT

    The economic rationale for consolidation

    might be similar in all sectors of the

    economy, but restructuring unfolds in waysspecific to each of them. In the same vein,

    our perspective on how to respond to

    high-tech consolidation begins at a general

    level (Exhibit 4), then tackles specifics.

    Well examine the two classic roles

    market leader and challengerbefore

    discussing the advantages for M&A of

    the long view and the need to prepare fo

    more hostile deals.

    Leaders and challengers

    When industries consolidate, market lead

    and challengers can make acquisitions

    within their industries to create economi

    of scale or across industries to gain

    economies of scope. To know what to doand when, companies need to develop a

    perspective on restructuring trends and t

    way these affect their particular industry

    envision the likely endgame, they should

    consider shifts in customer behavior and

    factors required for success. And as they

    make their moves, they must evaluate ho

    competitors will probably respond.

    Market leaders. In restructuring sectors,market leaders aim to protect their posit

    from challengers while seizing opportuni

    to extend their dominance; they therefor

    make acquisitions to head off those

    challengers and to increase their scale. In

    the high-tech sector as a whole, market

    leaders should defend the customer base

    High techs coming consolidation

    e x h i b i t 2

    Unsustainable

    Average EBIT1 margin of public IT companies by revenues,2 2002, %

    1Earnings before interest and taxes.2Includes 2,121 companies worldwide in software (913), hardware (562), IT services (266), semiconductors (380).

    Source: Bloomberg; Thomson Financial; McKinsey analysis

    $5 billion

    320

    1

    2

    2

    12

    11

    29

    SoftwareRevenues

    167

    1

    1

    2

    4

    3

    5

    Hardware

    29

    3

    4

    5

    6

    6

    6

    IT Services

    59

    Semiconductors

    1

    9

    1

    2

    4

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    4 | McKinsey on Finance | Spring 2004

    e x h i b i t 3

    Scale, scope, or skedaddle

    1 Selling, general, and administrative.

    Source: McKinsey analysis

    Restructuring activity Drivers Examples

    Scale: peer consolidation Improved fixed-cost structures (SG&A,1 R&D,depreciation)

    Customer preference for bigger suppliers

    Network, platform effects

    Logic

    Memory

    Network/systems management, security Storage hardware

    Scope: strategic cross-segment moves

    Customer preference for broader-reaching suppliers

    Channel, cross-selling synergies

    Technological synergies (such as those betweennetworking and storage)

    Value migration from hardware to software, services

    Maturing core businesses; capital market pressuresfor growth

    Database: middleware, application server

    Hardware: IT services

    Exit Desire to limit losses, free up capital

    Refocusing resources on other businesses

    Logic

    PCs/notebooks

    Networking hardware: storagehardware, software

    Semiconductor equipment

    tightening their control of the value chain

    and customer relationships or by creating

    scale advantages in R&D and sales. Oracle,

    for instance, is pursuing a broader footprint

    and new growth in its play for PeopleSoft.

    Scale offers efficiencies in large fixed costs

    essential in industries requiring massive

    up-front capital investment (like memorychips) or expensive R&D (like software). It

    also extends control over the value chain.

    Customers gain confidence in the vendors

    ability to provide long-term support services

    and are more likely to choose it as a

    preferred supplier. HPs merger with

    Compaq, for example, gave HP enhanced

    control over its value chain, cost synergies,

    and access to additional customers, to which

    it could now sell more comprehensivesolutions. These factors should help HP

    compete with IBM and Dell.

    Scope acquisitions can broaden the

    footprint of a leader and increase the

    dependence of its customers. Cisco Systems

    growth strategy in the 1990s was based on

    scope acquisitions, and the company swiftly

    used its distribution capabilities to stake ou

    strong positions in access solutions and

    security. Microsofts purchase of Great

    Plains Software and Navision extended its

    reach into enterprise applications. EMCs

    acquisition of Legato Systems presaged a

    move away from the slower-growth and

    rapidly commoditizing storage-disk-subsystem market and into the system-

    management-software marketa core

    control point of an enterprise IT

    infrastructure. The companys decision to

    buy Documentum shows a similar move

    into content management.

    For companies in some segments,

    such as IT services, scope deals offer

    an opportunity to become the primeintegrator for customers needs; IBMs

    acquisition of the consulting arm of

    PricewaterhouseCoopers is a recent

    example. A few words of warning should

    be sounded, however: if the acquisition has

    a different revenue model (as in the case of

    a hardware company acquiring a software

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    e x h i b i t 4

    The big picture

    Type of company Scale

    Market leaders Grow bigger;buy or blockchallengers

    Exit

    Challengers Merge withpeers

    Scope

    Cross-sell toboost customerdependence

    Buy adjacentbusinesses

    Small companies Carve out

    sustainable niche

    Maximize

    sale value

    Strategy

    Source: McKinsey analysis

    one), the buyer must avoid compromising

    the targets underlying business model.

    Challengers. Typically, a challenger in a

    restructuring industry confronts industry

    leaders by rolling up smaller companies

    to achieve scale or by merging with another

    challenger, thereby driving radical cost-

    structure changes through operational

    integration and redesigned business

    processes. PeopleSofts acquisition of

    J. D. Edwards in enterprise applications

    provides a good example of a challenger

    buying a peer to reduce operating costs.

    The combined company can use its largerscale to become a preferred supplier to

    key customers.

    Alternatively, a challenger can attempt to

    extend its scope by acquiring players in

    adjacent industries and combining the

    offerings into solutions, with the eventual

    aim of changing the basis of competition.

    BEA Systems, for example, started with a

    transaction-processing product and then, byacquiring companies such as WebLogic,

    gained leadership in the application server

    and middleware market, where we expect

    further consolidation. Second-tier storage

    and networking vendors could also benefit

    from teaming up in this way, as might

    companies in middleware and network

    management. In semiconductors, several

    companies could combine to form a larg

    chip maker focused on consumer

    electronics. (Beyond high tech, banks suc

    as Morgan Stanley and UBS Warburg hav

    used scope combinations to reposition

    themselves as financial-services providers

    Such deals challenge the acquirer to crea

    compelling value proposition and to buil

    sales force that can communicate it

    forcefully enough to displace incumbents

    If confronting the market leader directly

    too risky, companies can pair up to carv

    out a defendable niche. IT service provid

    could take this approach in health care, s

    if they found themselves unable to comp

    more broadly. Aspiring niche players mu

    assess whether they can create sustainabl

    entry barriers based on proprietary

    technology, innovation, industry knowled

    or locked-up customer ties.

    Selling out. Finally, the best way to recou

    value is sometimes to sell part or all of a

    company. In this case, it is often wise to

    move sooner rather than later to get thehighest value for shares and to position t

    company in the most attractive light, wh

    may mean shedding noncore assets. Such

    moves sometimes unlock resources that c

    be reinvested to make a company stronge

    in more strategic segments.

    The long view

    Market reactions to merger announceme

    tend to favor the target; fewer than halfhigh-tech acquirers see their shares rise a

    disclosing their plans. No wonder boards

    and executives are wary of acquisitions.

    the most successful high-tech companies

    those averaging more than 39 percent

    annual growth in returns to shareholders

    from 1989 to 2001were serious deal

    High techs coming consolidation

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    makers, undertaking almost twice as many

    acquisitions as their competitors.2 History

    also shows that companies with active

    M&A agendas tend to outperform their

    peers during and after industry downturns.3

    Companies that avoid acquisitions often run

    out of steam, whereas enterprising acquirers

    renew and refocus themselves.

    Companies should be cognizant of, but not

    overly concerned with, investors short-term

    reactions. Instead, they need to ensure that

    the long-term returns from their acquisition

    plans maximize shareholder value. Take

    Intel, which in recent years has acquired

    several suppliers of communications chips.

    Not all of the deals have been applauded as

    successful by observers (for example, the

    acquisition of Level One Communications),

    but together they helped Intel establish a

    new communications growth platform on

    which the company has built a multibillion-

    dollar business.

    High valuations can sometimes make

    alliances more enticing than M&A,

    especially if synergies wouldnt justify a fullacquisition. Dells recent alliances with

    EMC and Lexmark are examples of how

    these arrangements can be used as a low-

    risk step to broaden a companys scope into

    new segments.

    More hostile deals

    Most technology mergers have been small,

    friendly affairs financed by the acquirers

    stock, but we expect that picture to change.Oracles attempt to acquire PeopleSoft is an

    early example of what could become the

    new reality in high-tech restructuring.

    Executives and boards should thus prepare

    for hostile takeovers, cash deals, and the

    greater involvement of private equity

    firmsall common in other sectors.

    Furthermore, as companies reach for scale

    and scope, they will attempt larger deals.

    While a hostile takeover is rarely the

    preferred approach, these deals are likely to

    become more common, especially when the

    targets management has strong incentives

    to resist an acquisition that has real

    economic logic. For acquirers with deep

    pockets, cash offers may be more attractive

    in hostile situations, when cash can give

    shareholders a low-risk way to take money

    out of their investments.

    The scale and extent of the coming shifts in

    the high-tech sector promise to unlock

    tremendous value for companies that

    survive the consolidation. However quickly

    change comes, those that act wisely can

    position themselves as the shapers of high

    techs next era.

    The authors wish to acknowledge the contributions of

    Jukka Alanen and Jean-Francois Van Kerckhove,

    consultants in McKinseys Silicon Valley office.

    Bertil Chappuis ([email protected])

    andPaul Roche ([email protected])are

    principals in McKinseys Silicon Valley office, where

    Kevin Frick([email protected])is an

    associate principal. Copyright 2004 McKinsey &

    Company. All rights reserved.

    1 To measure the strength of each driver, we used qualitativ

    and quantitative metrics such as the Herfindahl-Hirschma

    Index (a common metric established by the US

    Department of Justice and the US Federal Trade

    Commission) to assess the current degree of

    fragmentation.

    2 Kevin A. Frick and Alberto Torres, Learning from high-tec

    deals, The McKinsey Quarterly, 2002 Number 1,

    pp. 11223.

    3 Richard F. Dobbs, Tomas Karakolev, and Francis Malige,

    Learning to love recessions, The McKinsey Quarterly,

    2002 special edition: Risk and resilience, pp. 69.

    MoF

    6 | McKinsey on Finance | Spring 2004

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    When efficient capital

    and operations go hand

    in hand

    Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, Nokias head of mobile

    phones and a former CFO, discusses strategic

    organization, performance measurement, and

    the value of financial transparency.

    When efficient capital and operations go hand in hand

    Nokias transformation from a Finnish

    conglomerate with its roots in pulp and

    paper to the worlds leading mobile-phone

    supplier has earned it a reputation as a

    model of innovation, brand building, and

    operational efficiency. Even during the

    severe downturn in the telecommunications

    industry the company maintained strong

    margins on its sales of mobile phones.

    Today Nokia runs 16 manufacturing

    facilities in 9 countries, conducts R&D in11 countries, and has more than 51,000

    employees around the world

    Nokia is reorganizing itself yet again as it

    anticipates increased demand for high-tech

    phones and other mobility products.

    A base of four business groupsmobile

    phones, networks, multimedia, and

    enterprise solutionswill exploit scale

    advantages across common functions suchas finance, marketing, and operations to

    provide maximum flexibility for business

    units. The goal: to go after every market

    in this industry and take share.

    So says Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, who in

    January of this year was named head of the

    mobile-phones group after serving as ch

    financial officer from 1992 to 1996 and

    1999 to 2003. A lawyer by training,

    Kallasvuo, 50, sees his move from finan

    to the leadership of the business group

    responsible for most of Nokias profits a

    perfectly natural. In an interview condu

    at Nokia headquarters outside Helsinki,

    Kallasvuo spoke to Fredrik Lind and

    Risto Perttunen of McKinsey about Nok

    strategy, communicating with markets, a

    the CFOs mind-set when operational an

    capital efficiencies go hand in hand.

    McKinsey on Finance: What long-term

    trends in the handset business do you see,

    and how are they affecting Nokias strate

    Kallasvuo: The biggest long-term trend i

    our customers increasing mobility and, a

    result, their demands for ever more

    sophisticated handsets. In one sense, its

    kind of convergence of businesses into a

    new business domain defined by mobility

    The result is that well continue to see a

    very simplistic entry-level phone, with no

    bells and whistles, on one hand, and on other hand well see a multipurpose devi

    that has all sorts of capabilities, like mob

    gaming or mobile imaging. This is what

    need to tackle at Nokia, and hence the

    reorganization to align our structure to

    different segments of this market.

    MoF: How do you think about measurin

    performance?

    Kallasvuo: The thinking over the years

    has definitely changed. Weve learned to

    understand that for us, traditional measu

    of performance like working capital, for

    example, are financial matters, yes, but

    more important theyre indicators of how

    a company is performing operationally.

    Fredrik Lind and

    Risto Perttunen

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    8 | McKinsey on Finance | Spring 2004

    When I look at working capital, I really

    see it first as a reflection of efficiency and

    then as a reflection of where our capital is

    invested, which is the reverse of the usual

    way of thinking.

    MoF: So how do you track the companys

    performance over time?

    Kallasvuo: A more capital-intensive

    business would probably look much more

    closely at its returns on investment, but

    ROI just is not as useful a measure for a

    company that makes its money by investing

    in people, in research and development, andin brand marketing. Measures of efficiency

    are much more helpfuloperational

    efficiencies, production efficiencies, and yes,

    financial efficienciesand they really all go

    hand in hand. Production efficiencies and

    capital efficiencies are very relevant for

    every finance person at Nokia.

    And if there were just one single thing to

    do to improve performance, it would have

    been done already. Improvement is usually

    not about making a quantum leap; its

    about taking small steps, improving a little

    bit every day. Nor is this about pushing

    responsibility off to individual departments

    and saying, You look at working capital,

    or, You look at inventory. These are the

    responsibility of everyone at Nokia becaus

    efficiency is the core of the business

    and then working capital becomes a

    reflection of how efficient we are, and

    thats why its such an important indicator

    that remains very high on our agenda even

    if financially its not critically relevant at

    the moment.

    MoF: Can the corporate team and the CFO

    team contribute to and lead the different

    divisions and businesses on the working

    capital dimension?

    Kallasvuo: No; this is exactly the point.

    Efficiency is so intricately entwined in the

    system that everyone has a stake in it,

    everyone is helping out. So if you were tostart some big push for working capital at

    Nokia, with a big headline saying, Now w

    are going to emphasize working capital, or

    announce that suddenly financial concerns

    will drive everything, no one would

    understand what youre talking about.

    Everyone understands that working capital i

    everyones jobby taking those little steps

    to get logistics working even better. This is

    one of our key competitive areas.

    MoF: Are there any particular structures

    or processes at Nokia to make this

    cooperation work?

    Kallasvuo: In the end, it really comes down

    to a companys business infrastructure and

    Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo

    Vital statistics Born July 13, 1953, in Lavia, in western Finland

    Education Holds a Master of Laws degree from the University of Helsinki

    Career highlights Nokia, Inc. (1980 to present)

    Assistant vice president of the legal department (1987) Assistant vice president of finance (1988) Senior vice president of finance (1990) Executive vice president and chief financial officer (1992 to 1996) Corporate executive vice president, Nokia Americas (1997 to1998) Chief financial officer (1999 to 2003) Executive vice president and general manager of mobile phones at

    Nokia (2004present)

    Fast facts Served as chair and board member of Helsinki Stock Exchange from

    1991 to 1996 Serves on the boards of:

    Sampo, a Finnish full-service financial group Nextrom Holding, a Swiss machine manufacturer F-Secure, a Finnish company specializing in data security solutions

    In spare time, enjoys golf, tennis, and reading about political history

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    how it operates in general. As we have

    grown from a small, flexible player to such

    a large company, weve put considerable

    effort into combining flexibility and

    economies of scale, which has an impact on

    how we operate. The emphasis has been on

    doing everything we can to take advantage

    of economies of scale where we can and

    where it makes sense, but not to centralize

    anything that is business specific. Weve

    drawn that line very carefully. If something

    is business specific, it gets maximum

    flexibility, empowerment, decentralization.

    If its not business specific, then lets take

    the economies of scale. The result has been

    an increasing platformization, if you will, of

    the business infrastructure. And here the

    business infrastructure means other than IT,

    so its a wider concept.

    MoF: What have been the special challenges

    of communicating the results of a very fast-

    growing company to financial markets?

    Kallasvuo: Communicating results is easy.

    Giving estimates is more of a challenge,

    because in this type of fast-moving businessno one can really know what will happen

    over three monthsno one. No system in

    this world can make that prediction in a

    way that is certain. The best you can do is

    communicate your best understanding to

    the market at the time, which is actually

    pretty simple.

    At Nokia, we have been simply communi-

    cating our best possible understanding tothe market. We have not been playing

    games. I was personally criticized by some

    investors for not playing gamesfor not

    giving an estimate and then exceeding it by

    one penny, which so many companies were

    doing. Now, of course, everyone feels this

    way. Whatever numbers come out of the

    system, in accordance with your account

    principles, those are your results.

    MoF: What is your view of the emergen

    of companies over the past year or so th

    are minimizing their financial transparen

    to the markets?

    Kallasvuo: Of course, I cant speak on

    behalf of other companies, but I feel tha

    our investor base wants quarterly guidan

    Its very much a matter of providing the

    markets with the information they want,

    rather than telling them what we think t

    should want. This isnt brain surgery. If t

    markets want information, you give them

    information.

    The question has to be, how can we bett

    understand what our investors want? Th

    mind-set really needs to be that we must

    listen and communicate in terms of what

    expected. This is very relevant coming fr

    a small market and growing into one of

    most traded shares in the world. We com

    from a context where we really didnt ha

    the benefit of the doubt when it came toour existence and our ability to deliver o

    the long-term. It really was an imperativ

    listen to what investors expectedif we

    not have that mind-set, we never would

    have become one of the most widely held

    shares in the United States.

    MoF: What is the optimal way to distribu

    value back to the shareholdersfor exam

    through share buybacks or dividends?

    Kallasvuo: I dont think there is a big

    difference between dividends and buybac

    In the end its a pragmatic choice, very

    much driven by tax questions and the

    shareholder base. Otherwise theyre both

    pretty equal from the financial perspecti

    When efficient capital and operations go hand in hand

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    10 | McKinsey on Finance | Spring 2004

    MoF: How important is it for a company to

    be listed in the United States?

    Kallasvuo: Its really not possible to

    become a major name among US investors

    if youre not represented in the US market

    in a major way. Being listed supports the

    business, and the business supports the

    listingwhich Nokias experience in the

    1990s illustrates very well. Indeed, I

    would claim that without its listing in

    New York, Nokia would not have become

    the market leader in the United States.

    Furthermore, if it had not become a

    market leader in the United States, the

    share story would have been a lot less well-

    known. When we first issued our IPO in

    the United States, it wasnt really that we

    needed US capital but rather that the listing

    would support the business, which is how

    it worked out. The result was a positive

    spiral, if there is such a thing, each one

    supporting the other.

    MoF: And how has that transformation

    changed your relationship with shareholders

    on both sides of the Atlantic?

    Kallasvuo: Sometime in 1995 or 1996,

    we became the first company in the world

    with a major market cap that had the

    majority of its market capitalization coming

    from outside its home country, as domestic

    Finnish share dipped below 50 percent.

    That happened very suddenly and

    continued at a rapid pace. Other

    companies have since found themselves insimilar positions, but not to the same

    extent. So we basically said to ourselves,

    Now we have to see ourselves as a

    US company and we have to do things in

    the same way a US company would,

    because thats what a majority of our

    investors will expect.

    That became a real priority. For example,

    instead of having our US investor relations

    (IR) staff report to an IR executive in

    Helsinki, we located the IR head office for

    the entire company in the United Statesan

    then of course allocated a lot of resources

    and everything to make it work. Even the

    Helsinki-based IR office reported for many

    years to the US office. When it came to

    communications, we said to ourselves, we

    need to communicate like a US company.

    Even today, if some capital-markets-related

    legislation or other comes out of the United

    States that isnt necessarily applicable to

    non-US companies, we comply anyway, eve

    if the legislation does not, strictly speaking

    apply. There is no other way for us.

    Other companies have chosen exactly the

    other way: to be domestic first and

    foremost, abiding primarily by their own

    governments practices and legislation and

    domestic shareholders. Which one is wrong

    or right I cant say.

    MoF: And how comfortable are you with

    Nokias current level of transparency?

    Kallasvuo: I can say that every time we hav

    had a discussion internally about whether

    we should go into this more transparent

    reporting, and every time we have made a

    decision to report instead of holding back,

    the decision to report has been the right

    decision, eventually. Its what I feel. Not

    once have I looked back and thought, Why

    did we have to tell this? But here again,I would suggest that theories aside, in our

    case its been a necessity. You are foreign.

    You are an ADR.1 You dont have the optio

    of not listening to what the market wants.

    MoF: Is there any risk, as Nokia begins

    reporting separately for multimedia

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    handsets and enterprise solutions? What if

    one unit doesnt achieve very good results?

    Kallasvuo: No, definitely not. As I said,

    every time weve increased our transparency

    it was the right decision, so it must be the

    right decision here too. And you have to also

    remember that external pressure is good for

    you. It makes you run even harder. The

    people running those operations have even

    more reason to perform if external pressure

    is there also. Thats been our experience.

    MoF: Has the CFO been a part of the

    strategic decision-making process in Nokia,

    and do you see that role being strengthened

    in the future?

    Kallasvuo: I dont really think there is one

    and only one role for a CFO. Of course, the

    role of a CFO has to be aligned with the way

    the company operates, and it also depends

    very much on the size of the company. But it

    really cant be the same in every company, in

    every business situation, and in every type of

    business a company is in.

    At Nokia, being CFO has meant being

    very much a part of the management

    team, looking at matters from a financial

    perspective but really not taking the role

    of a finance guy who primarily becomes

    the voice of that department. Instead of

    defining the role in one way and taking

    that into the management team, the CFO

    at Nokia has a responsibility for the same

    decisions as everyone else on themanagement team. Yes, of course, you

    might look at those decisions from a

    certain perspective, but that doesnt have

    to mean that you always take the same

    sort of role. You have to be more versatile

    than that, which makes the role a very

    strategic one.

    MoF: In many companies, the role of th

    CFO has been expanding on the traditio

    role in two directions: the first is a more

    strategic-architect or strategic-planning t

    of role, even to the point of having M&

    or strategy divisions; the second is movin

    toward a more involved operations role,

    enhancing some business-controlling

    activities or leading corporate-pricing or

    working-capital programs. What are you

    thoughts on the evolution of the CFO ro

    in general?

    Kallasvuo: If you assume a traditional so

    of controller role as the starting point, th

    yes, those are the two natural directions

    the role to evolve. But because it varies

    depending on how the company operates

    its also possible that both of those roles

    might even be combined. The latter role

    the more involved operations roleis

    particularly apt for the CFO of a major

    business unit, which is very much an

    operational role in an operational unit.

    The former, more strategic role is more a

    for a corporate, head-office CFO who

    operates, supervises, and oversees severabusiness units. And both are quite releva

    at Nokia, too, because of how we opera

    and how the roles of the business units o

    even business groups have been defined.

    And I would also claim that the role of t

    CFO must be aligned to the approach of

    the CEO. Without alignment, success is

    difficult.

    Fredrik Lind([email protected])is a

    principal in McKinseys Stockholm office, and

    Risto Perttunen ([email protected]

    is a director in the Helsinki office. Copyright 200

    McKinsey & Company. All rights reserved.

    1American depository receipt

    MoF

    When efficient capital and operations go hand in hand

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    e x h i b i t 1

    Companies can have identical P/E multiplesfor dramatically different reasons

    1Assuming 10% cost of equity, no debt, and 10 years excessive growthfollowed by 5% growth at historic levels of returns on invested capital.

    Source: McKinsey analysis

    ExpectedROIC

    Expectedgrowth

    Implied P/Emultiple1

    Growth, Inc 14% 13% 17

    Returns, Inc 35% 5% 17

    All P/Es are not

    created equal

    High price-to-earnings ratios are about more

    than growth. Understanding the ingredients that

    go into a strong multiple can help executives

    make the most of this strategic tool.

    When it comes to price-to-earnings ratios,

    most executives understand that a high

    multiple enhances a companys strategic

    freedom. Among other benefits, strong

    multiples can provide more muscle to

    pursue acquisitions or cut the cost of

    raising equity capital. Unfortunately, in

    their efforts to increase their P/E, many

    executives reflexively try to crank up

    growth. Too many fail to appreciate the

    important role that returns on capitalplay in channeling growth into a high or

    low multiple.

    Simply put, growth rates and multiples dont

    move in lockstep. For instance, the retailer

    Williams-Sonoma has a P/E multiple of

    about 21, based on earnings growth over

    15 percent in the past three to five years

    and low returns on capital.1 By contrast,

    Coca-Cola has a slightly stronger P/E at 24,despite its lower growth rate.2 Cokes

    secret? Returns on capital over 45 percent

    relative to a 9 percent weighted average cost

    of capital.

    Its common sense: growth requires

    investment, and if the investment doesnt

    yield an adequate return over the cost of

    capital, it wont create shareholder value.

    That means no boost to share price and no

    increase in the P/E multiple. Executives wh

    do not pay attention to both growth and

    returns on capital run the risk of achieving

    their growth objectives but leaving behind

    the benefits of a higher P/E and, more

    important, not creating value for

    shareholders. They may also discover that

    they have confused their portfolio and

    investment strategies by treating some high

    P/E businesses as attractive growth

    platforms when they are actually high-

    returning mature businesses with few

    growth prospects.3 Better understanding of

    the way growth and returns on capital

    combine to shape each businesss multiple

    can produce both better growth and better

    investment decisions.

    Doing the math on multiples

    The relationship between P/E multiples and

    growth is basic arithmetic:4 high multiples

    can result from high returns on capital in

    average or low-growth businesses just as

    easily as they can result from high growth.But beware: any amount of growth at low

    returns on capital will not lead to a high

    P/E, because such growth does not create

    shareholder value.

    12 | McKinsey on Finance | Spring 2004

    Nidhi Chadda,

    Robert S. McNish,

    and Werner Rehm

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    To illustrate, consider two companies with

    identical P/E multiples of 17 but with

    different mechanisms for creating value.

    (Exhibit 1). Growth, Inc., is expected to

    grow at an average annual rate of

    13 percent over the next ten years, while

    generating a 14 percent return on invested

    capital (ROIC) which is modestly higher

    than its 10 percent cost of capital. To

    sustain that level of growth, it must

    reinvest 93 cents from each dollar of

    income (Exhibit 2). The relatively highreinvestment rate means that Growth, Inc.,

    turns only a small amount of earnings

    growth into free cash flow growth. Many

    companies fit this growth profile, including

    some that need to reinvest more than

    100 percent of their earnings to support

    their growth rate. In contrast,

    Returns, Inc., is expected to grow at only

    5 percent per year, a rate similar to long-

    term nominal GDP growth in the UnitedStates.5 Unlike Growth, Inc., however,

    Returns, Inc., invests its capital extremely

    efficiently. With a return on capital of 35

    percent, it needs to reinvest only 14 cents

    of each dollar to sustain its growth. As its

    earnings grow, Returns, Inc., methodically

    turns them into free cash flow.

    Because Growth, Inc., and Returns, Inc.,

    take very different routes to the same

    P/E multiple, it would make sense for a

    savvy executive to pursue different grow

    and investment strategies to increase eac

    businesss P/E. Obviously, the rare compa

    that can combine high growth with high

    returns on capital should enjoy extremely

    high multiples.

    The hard part: Disaggregating

    multiples

    Not many executives and analysts work

    discern how much of a companys curren

    value can be attributed to expected grow

    or to returns on capital. Those who try

    often fail. To see why, consider one wide

    used model to break down multiples as i

    might be applied to a large consumer go

    manufacturer and a fast-growing retailer

    with similar P/E ratios (Exhibit 3).

    The first step is to estimate the value of

    current earnings in perpetuity, assuming

    growth.6 The model then attributes the

    remaining value to growth. The

    interpretation from this simple two-partapproach would be that the market assum

    that the consumer goods manufacturer

    would have better growth prospects than

    the retailer.

    But this reading misleads because it doesn

    take into account returns on capital.

    Discount retailers fight it out primarily on

    price, which translates into lower margin

    and relatively low returns on capitalsimto Growth, Inc. In contrast, consumer go

    companies compete in an environment wh

    brand equity can generate higher margins

    and returns on capital, making them mor

    like Returns, Inc. In fact, the simple two-

    model is wrong. The discount retailer is

    actually expected to grow faster and to

    All P/Es are not created equal

    e x h i b i t 2

    Sustaining high growth requires considerablymore reinvestment than sustaining high returns

    1Assuming 10% cost of equity, no debt, and 10 years excessive growthfollowed by 5% growth at historic levels of return on invested capital.

    Source: McKinsey analysis

    Growth, Inc1 Returns, Inc1

    Operating profit less taxes

    Year 1 Year 2 Year 1

    Reinvestment rate93%

    Reinvestment rate14%

    Year 2

    100 113 100 105

    93 105 14 15

    7 8 86 90

    Reinvestment

    Free cash flow

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    e x h i b i t 3

    Traditional assessments of enterprise value can lead to a misinterpretation of where valuecomes from

    1Return on invested capital.2From 2004 to 2018.

    Source: Compustat; Zacks; McKinsey analysis

    100% = operating enterprise value

    Traditional decomposition

    Consumer goods manufacturer, P/E: 20

    Fast-growing retailer, P/E: 20

    52%48%

    50%50%

    ROIC1-growth decompositionROIC: 38%Implied growth: 5.1%

    ROIC: 12%Implied growth: 9.5%2

    21%

    2%

    29%

    50%

    50%

    48%

    Value from currentperformancewith no growth

    ROIC premiumValue from currentearnings in perpetuity

    Value from futureearnings

    Value ofexpected growth

    14 | McKinsey on Finance | Spring 2004

    create more value from growth than the

    consumer goods company, whose high

    valuation would be primarily based on high

    returns on capital.

    An executive relying on the faulty analysis

    produced by such a simple model might flirt

    with trouble. The CEO of the consumer-

    goods company

    might increase

    investment or

    discount prices todrive growth,

    potentially

    destroying

    shareholder value

    in the long run. By

    digging a little

    deeper and

    appreciating the

    role of returns on

    capital, the CEO would more likely focus onprotecting high returns and market share.

    Accounting for the ROIC premium

    How can we avoid these misinterpretations

    and still keep the analysis relatively simple?

    In our experience, the best way to

    understand the respective roles of returns

    on capital and growth in shaping a

    companys P/E is to expand the simple

    two-part model and draw out a P/E

    premium for high returns on invested

    capital. This approach effectively

    disaggregates value into three easily

    understood parts:

    Current performance. Current performance

    is still estimated in the usual manner, as the

    value of current after-tax operating earning

    in perpetuity, assuming no growth.Intuitively, this is the value of simply

    maintaining the investments the company

    has already made.

    Return premium. This is the value a

    company delivers by earning superior

    returns on its growth capital. In order to

    assess how a companys return on

    growth capital influences its P/E multiple,

    we recommend discounting a companyscash flows as if they grew in perpetuity at

    some normalized rate, such as nominal

    GDP growth.7 Through repeated analyses,

    we have found that the result is a good

    proxy for the premium a company enjoys

    in the capital markets because of its high

    returns on future growth capital. In our

    The best way to understand

    the respective roles of returns

    on capital and growth in

    shaping a companys P/E is

    to expand the simple two-

    part model to draw out a

    premium for high returns

    on invested capital.

  • 8/14/2019 MoF Issue 11

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    example, the consumer goods manufacturer

    would enjoy a large return premium,

    consistent with its high historical returns

    on capital.

    Value from growth. This value represents

    how much a company delivers by growing

    over and above nominal GDP growth. It can

    be calculated as that portion of the

    companys current market value that is not

    captured in current performance or the

    return premium.8 While more sophisticated

    and time-consuming analyses are sometimes

    appropriate, in our experience executives

    can learn a lot about their P/E multiple with

    this simple three-

    part model.

    How might an

    executive change

    his or her insights

    about the consumer

    goods company and

    the discount retailer

    using this three-part

    model? The consumer goods company

    would be seen to enjoy a large premium forits return on capital. In the consumer goods

    sector, preserving that return premium must

    be paramount, but anything the company

    can do to increase its organic growth rate

    while preserving its return premium would

    translate directly into shareholder value and

    the possibility of a very high multiple.

    In contrast, the CEO of the discount retailer

    would face a tiny premium for return oncapital, since his or her company derives

    most of its value from the rapid growth

    prospects. Anything this company could do

    to increase its ROIC, possibly even reining

    in its growth rate, would add value. By

    applying the model to calibrate the trade-off

    between growth and return, the CEO could

    even determine that a top management

    priority is to redirect some attention from

    growth to operations improvement.

    High P/E multiples can serve as a powerfstrategic tool. Executives who understan

    the complex chemistry of growth, return

    and P/E multiples will be better position

    to make strategic and operating decision

    that increase shareholder value.

    Nidhi Chadda ([email protected])

    and Werner Rehm ([email protected]

    are consultants in McKinseys New York office.

    Rob McNish ([email protected])is aprincipal in the Washington, DC, office.

    Copyright 2004, McKinsey & Company.

    All rights reserved.

    1Adjusted for operating leases, Williams-Sonomas ROI

    has historically averaged about 10 percent, the same

    cost of capital.

    2 Coke reports earnings around 3 percent over the past

    seven years.

    3 Likewise, stock market investors can make the same

    mistake by thinking they are investing in high P/E grostocks when in fact some of these stocks are high-

    returning value investments.

    4 For instance, assuming perpetuity growth for a compa

    without any financial leverage, P/E = (1 growth/retur

    capital)/(cost of capital growth).

    5 Real GDP growth over the past 40 years in the United

    States was 3.5 percent.

    6At no growth, we assume that depreciation is equal to

    capital expenditure, and therefore net operating profits

    adjusted taxes (NOPLAT) is equal to free cash flow for

    business that does not grow. In effect, the first contrib

    is calculated as NOPLAT divided by the companys co

    capital.

    7 This can be achieved without an explicit discounted c

    flow model by using, for example, the value driver form

    derived by Tom Copeland, Tim Koller, and Jack Murrin

    Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of

    Companies, third edition, New York: John Wiley & Son

    2000.

    8 For a company that grows more slowly than GDP, this

    value will be negative.

    MoF

    All P/Es are not created equal

    While more sophisticated

    analyses are sometimes

    appropriate, executives can

    learn a lot about their P/E

    multiple with this simple

    three-part model.

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    Putting value back

    in value-based

    management

    Value-based management programs focus

    too much on measurement and too little on

    the management activities that create

    shareholder value.

    Value-based management (VBM) burst

    onto the scene a decade ago with a

    revolutionary promise: a company that

    traded in traditional management

    approaches in favor of VBM could align its

    aspirations, mind-set, and management

    processes with everyday decisions that truly

    add shareholder value. Name the initiative

    investing in a new project, say, or spinning

    off a subsidiary, or implementing new

    customer-service guidelinesandmanagement could not only pinpoint better

    projects but also better understand the value

    they would create for shareholders. Indeed,

    well-implemented VBM programs typically

    deliver a 5 to 15 percent increase in

    bottom-line results.

    Sadly, even as VBM has evolved, most

    programs are notable more for their

    implementation shortfalls than for theirsuccesses. In our ongoing work and

    discussions with executives, we have begun

    to identify a few common pitfalls that have

    repeatedly plagued underperforming

    VBM programs going back years as well as

    some newer wrinkles that stanch the benefits

    that VBM can deliver. Weve also developed

    16 | McKinsey on Finance | Spring 2004

    Richard J. Benson-

    Armer, Richard F.

    Dobbs, and

    Paul Todd

    an anecdotal view of how the most

    successful practitioners push the principles

    of VBM to achieve its real promise for

    shareholders.

    Simply put, ailing VBM programs typically

    settle for merely measuring value creation i

    business initiatives, while successful

    approaches push to link t ightly the

    measurement to how the business can be

    improved. For example, some companies

    mechanically measure historical

    performance but then fail to apply what

    theyve learned to the strategies from which

    value should flow. Most also neglect to

    account for future growth and

    sustainability. Others make this important

    link but then set targets in ways that fail to

    mobilize the troops needed to make VBM

    pay off. Still others go to great lengths to

    implement VBM programs but then relegat

    them to the finance department, where they

    languish without the commitment of senior

    level management.

    Troubled VBM programs do not necessarily

    manifest all these symptoms at once. In ourexperience, however, the vast majority

    suffer from at least one. Moreover, the best

    practitioners have learned to overcome them

    and can provide guidance about how to

    push VBM to better fulfill its potential.

    Missing the link between

    measurement and value

    The original breakthrough of value-based

    management was to draw attention to thefailure of traditional accounting measures,

    such as net income and earnings per share,

    to account for the cost of capital.

    Traditional managers focused far more

    intently on improving cost and gross

    margin and paid little if any attention to

    the capital invested in the business. As a

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    Putting value back in value-based management

    result, it was common to find projects in

    which much of the capital deployed in

    businesses was wasted.

    As managers focused on value creation and

    the true economic cost of capital deployed

    in the business, VBM proponents

    introduced metrics to measure a businesss

    or programs value, including return oninvested capital (ROIC), economic profit,

    cash flow return on investment (CFROI), or

    economic value added (EVA).1 The

    advantages of different measures vary

    (Exhibit 1), but they all attempt to

    recognize the cost of capital in the

    benchmarks managers use to gauge the

    value their decisions create.

    Yet many companies fall into the trap offocusing their measurement too much on

    historical returns, which are easily

    quantified, and too little on more forward-

    looking contributors to value: growth and

    sustainability. For instance, one consumer

    goods company (Exhibit 2) was able to

    demonstrate strong economic returns for

    five years as measured by economic prof

    But because the company delivered its

    growth by increasing prices, it ultimately

    damaged its customer franchise and cou

    not sustain its growth rate.

    Companies that apply VBM at a more

    advanced level move beyond measuremen

    help the management team focus on thelevers that can be used to improve the

    business. The best programs use value tre

    to identify underlying drivers of operatin

    value. These have long been at the core of

    VBM theory, but we find that they are sti

    conspicuously missing in many applicatio

    Savvy VBM practitioners use these trees

    identify areas of improvement, pushing d

    into a businesss operating performance comparing it with others to create clear

    benchmarks. These benchmarks can also

    pegged to the performance of peers outs

    the company, or to the performance of

    similar internal businesses. One particula

    informative and credible internal benchm

    comes from analyzing the historical

    e x h i b i t 1

    Metrics designed to measure value have strengthsand weaknesses

    1 EBITDA = earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization; ROS = return on sales; EPS = earnings per share; ROE = return on equity; ROCreturn on capital employed; ROIC = return on invested capital; ROA = return on assets; EVA = economic value added; DCF = discounted cash flow; IRinternal rate of return; CFROI = cash flow return on investment

    Source: McKinsey analysis

    Traditional P&L and balance sheet approaches

    Revenues EBITDA1

    Net income

    Book value ROS1

    EPS1 (diluted or not)

    Relevance for management declining, but stillwidely used by companies for communication toinvestors (e.g., EPS)

    Economic cost of the capital invested ignored

    Growth, long-term performance, and sustainabilitynot taken into account

    Value creation: historical metrics

    Return ratiosROE1ROCE,1 ROIC1

    ROA1 Economic profit or EVA1

    Widely used concepts orientatedtowards taking into account theeconomic cost of the capital in thebusiness

    Growth, long-term performance, andsustainability not taken into account

    Value: forward-looking metrics

    DCF1-value Discounted EVA1

    IRR1

    CFROI1

    Required for active management ofcompanys value

    Explicit consideration of growth andlong-term impact of decisions

    High correlation to market value ofcompany

    Much harder to measure accuratelyand so can be gamed

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    18 | McKinsey on Finance | Spring 2004

    performance of the same business over time.

    For example, one processing companys

    analysis found that daily performance alone

    varied so widely that the management team

    didnt need to look for outside benchmarks.

    Instead, they could improve the overall

    performance of the company enough just by

    focusing their efforts on the levers that led

    to the most severe underperformance on

    bad days.

    The error in focusing on targets

    rather than how they are setA second common VBM pitfall stems from

    the way executives set performance targets

    and hand them down to the individuals

    responsible for meeting them. These targets

    may seem perfectly reasonable to the

    managers who set them, but they often

    appear arbitrary and unrealistic and convey

    little sense of ownership to the teams that

    receive them. In our experience, only when

    those assigned to meet the targets alsoactively help in setting them is a company

    likely to generate the understanding and

    commitment needed to deliver outstanding

    performance (Exhibit 3). Indeed, we find

    the process of setting targets to be the

    single biggest factor in delivering superior

    VBM performance.

    Consider the experience of one global

    consumer goods company. When the

    corporate technical manager ordered that al

    the companys bottling lines should achieve

    75 percent operating efficiency, regardless o

    their current level, some plant operators

    rebelled. Operators at one US plant,

    concluding that at 53 percent their plant wa

    running as well as it had ever run, worked

    only to maintain performance at historical

    levels. Yet after the plant launched an

    inclusive process to permit the operators to

    set their own performance goals, they raised

    performance levels above the 75 percent

    target over a period of only 14 months.

    The most effective VBM programs fine-tun

    this dynamic even more. As they set targets

    some build in a challenge from peers

    running similar businesses. This approach

    helps to stretch targets, to highlight

    accountability in view of peers, and to

    create the sense of commitment and

    purpose that comes from collaborating on

    tough issues. Because colleagues running

    similar businesses will be familiar with all

    the opportunities for improvement, theywill be much more effective than line

    managers at providing such challenges.

    Companies that have excelled at VBM

    programs arrange them not only on overall

    profitability but also on capital expenditure

    growth, pricing, and costsas well as

    performance during the year. Others create

    formal processes that encourage mutual

    support among colleagues to improve the

    performance of the business. At one ofCanadas largest privately held companies,

    for example, stronger performers are

    explicitly assigned to help their colleagues

    who are not performing as well.

    Or consider how one chemical company

    designed a more effective way to review

    e x h i b i t 2

    Financial measures alone are inadequate

    Economic profit went up, to a point . . .Year 1 = 100

    . . . but proved unsustainable, as marketshare steadily declined, %

    Source: McKinsey analysis

    160

    120

    200

    Year Year

    80

    40

    01 3 5 72 4 6

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    1 3 5 72 4 6

    Profit growth dueto price increases

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    performance. A year after introducing a

    VBM approach to make reported data

    more transparent, the company had yet to

    see the improvements it expected. Worse,

    nearly everyone in the organization

    recognized that official discussions about

    performance were something of a sham.

    Some managers misrepresented reportsof their actual performance in order to

    create the appearance of meeting targets;

    others built enough slack into future

    performance targets to make sure they

    would easily be met.

    The companys response: change the review

    process. What had been a one-on-one

    review involving the division head and unit

    leader became a broader discussion betweenthe division head and all unit leaders

    together. And rather than simply reviewing

    the data, the meeting focused on the most

    important lessons from the previous

    reporting period, as well as the greatest

    risks and opportunities expected to appear

    in the coming reporting period. Emphasis at

    the meeting shifted away from individua

    successes and failures to a combination o

    shared lessons and problem solving on

    future risks and opportunities.

    Next the company introduced a series of

    peer meetings among unit leaders withou

    the division heads present. These meetinaimed to review plans and identify risks

    opportunities in order to set priorities fo

    allocating capital and resources. In the fi

    year of operating under the new process

    capital outlays dropped 25 percent and

    underlying profits, adjusted for the usual

    modulations of the business cycle, rose b

    10 percent.

    Not ingraining VBM in day-to-dbusiness processes

    Setting targets and committing to meet th

    is one thing. Its another to make sure tha

    performance targets are acted upon. This

    process happens by making certain that

    specific individuals are accountable and

    responsible for making decisions and by

    Putting value back in value-based management

    e x h i b i t 3

    Involve managers early in KPI1 definition process to ensure acceptance and accountability

    Success factor This Not this

    Guided self-discovery Managers discover the key value drivers and KPIs forthemselves

    The process, rigor, and insights will be shared between

    units

    External team (or a staff team) doesthe analysis and develops value driversand KPIs

    Strong senior management leadership Management actions and messages emphasize valuecreation and value-based shaping of the management

    agenda

    Senior managers, publicly or privately,communicate or act in ways that do notreflect the value drivers and KPIs

    Inclusive and open communication Relevant staff is involved both in analysis and rollout,

    with a clear understanding of the ultimate objective

    Staff is told what the new value driversand KPIs are

    Fact-based debate and challenge Discussions and decisions are based on facts Discussions and decisions are based onpersonal preferences and past actions

    Link to real deliverables KPI framework leads to clear assignment of

    accountabilities for targets and actions

    KPI work is done separately from thebudget and targeting processes

    1 Key performance indicator.

    Source: McKinsey analysis

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    20 | McKinsey on Finance | Spring 2004

    guaranteeing a link between performance

    and an individuals evaluation process.

    One energy company, for example,

    implemented a VBM program that seemed

    to have all the right parts. But management

    then failed to carry it over from a discrete

    program in the finance department to

    engage the

    entire company.

    This result was

    despite the fact

    that the

    companys

    finance team

    developed a

    first-rate

    scorecard covering financial performance,

    operating drivers, organizational health,

    and customer service. Nearly a year later,

    there was no discernible impact. Beyond

    top-level conversations, few of the

    companys managers used the scorecard

    some didnt even know what it was. They

    had had no involvement in the programs

    development, little understanding of why

    the new scorecard was necessary, and noincentive to use it. The few that did use it

    found that targets regularly were missed.

    Some companies overcome this pitfall by

    using a formal performance contract to

    explicitly link the key performance

    indicatorssuch as sales, profit margin,

    return on investment, and customer

    satisfactionwith roles such as sales

    manager, business unit manager, financemanager, and call-center manager

    respectively. This link forces an explicit

    conversation to take place about whether

    roles and decision rights are correctly lined

    up. Other companies link their people-

    evaluation system to hitting targets, with

    explicit rules about dismissals for

    individuals who fail to meet their targets

    more than once. By tying performance

    evaluation and compensation to individual

    objectives, performance can also be aligned

    with the objectives of the VBM program.

    A rule of thumb: until a VBM program is

    an integral part of how a company

    manages, it will always be simply

    something else to do and will inevitably

    fail as employees continue to perform as

    they always have. Finance department inpu

    is essential, for example, but delegating

    VBM to the finance department as a

    discrete, isolated program is a surefire way

    to snuff its potential.

    Too few VBM programs have fulfilled their

    early promise. But recognizing common

    patterns in programs that have gone awry i

    a first step in moving VBM closer to its goa

    to help line managers deliver better

    performance for shareholders.

    Richard Benson-Armer (Richard_Benson-

    [email protected])is a principal in McKinseys

    Toronto office.Richard Dobbs (Richard_Dobbs

    @McKinsey.com)is a principal in the London office,

    wherePaul Todd([email protected]) is an

    associate principal. Copyright 2004 McKinsey &

    Company. All rights reserved.

    The authors wish to acknowledge the valuable

    contributions of Joe Hughes, Tim Koller, and

    Carlos Murrieta to the development of this article.

    1 EVA is a registered trade mark of Stern, Stewart & Co.,

    New York, and is synonymous with the more generic term

    economic profit.

    2 Tom Copeland, Tim Koller, and Jack Murrin, Valuation:

    Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies, third

    edition, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2000.

    MoF

    Until a VBM program is an

    integral part of how a company

    manages, it will always be

    simply something else to do

    and will inevitably fail.

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    AMSTERDAANTWER

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    Copyright 2004 McKinsey & Company