MODULE 6 - International Organization for Migration
Transcript of MODULE 6 - International Organization for Migration
MODULE 6
Strengthening administrative data sources: towards harmonization and standardization of migration data
Jason Schachter, Chief, Net International Migration, US Census Bureau Jason Gagnon, Lead Economist on migration and skills, OECD Development Centre
Nougbodohoue Samson Bel-Aube, Statistician, STATAFRIC African Union (AU)
PART 1
Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census Bureau to Measure International Migration
Jason Schachter
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Administrative data• Data collected by Federal agencies for some administrative purpose
• Often not collected with the purpose of measuring international migration
• Advantages• Timely• Complete coverage (as long as included in the system)• Low cost• Often includes a number of characteristics (but often limited)• Can be linked if personal identifiers are available
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Data Integration• The process of combining two or more data sources to produce
statistical outputs• Macro: The combination of data based on aggregates (statistics) of individual-
level records. • Micro: the integration of data based on record linkage or statistical matching
of individual-level records using key identifying variables. • Difference between Micro- and Macro-integration
• Micro-data integration creates new combined data sets, which can produce statistics• Macro-data integration creates new statistics (estimates) from outputs from multiple
data sets• Often used when micro-data integration is not possible
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Why data integration is needed to improve measurement of migration statistics: Macro• Multiple data sources yield different results
• Due to inherent challenges measuring international migration (different concepts, universes, coverage, etc.)
• Data source availability• Micro-data integration is not possible• Lack of specific information (e.g. stock data available, but not flows; lack of geographic detail, lack of timely
information, etc.)• Specific migrant groups missing in regular data sources (e.g. coverage of irregular migrants, refugees, circular
and temporary migrants, etc.)• Missing characteristics of migrants in a particular data source (e.g. demographic characteristics, legal status,
etc.)
• Respond to recent migration events which regular data measurement lags or cannot measure adequately
• Natural disasters/pandemics• Humanitarian crises (e.g. war/mass refugee movements)• Sudden drastic policy changes
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Why data integration is needed to improve measurement of migration statistics: Micro
• Combined data sets provides richer information about migrant populations, including data without migrant identifiers
• Different administrative sources• Surveys to administrative sources• Census to survey or administrative sources• New data sources (such as big data) combined with traditional data sources
• Compilation of data sets for policy analysis or estimation, including longitudinal analysis• Migrant integration indicators • Economic impact of migration• Change of legal or economics status over time
• Synchronizing/harmonizing variables, terminology and timeframes across different sources, particularly helpful for administrative data collected by different registries.
• Reduced costs for data collection/processing• Reduced response burden• Improved quality of data 8
Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Macro-Data Integration Methods• Additive methods (data compilation)
• Use different data sources to produce different sub-components of international migration estimates
• Combination of different estimates to produce a single estimate (data triangulation)• Adjust migration estimates from one data source using estimates from one or more other data sources
• Combination of different data sources (borrowing strength from one source to improve another source)• Applications
• Improve conceptual coherence (e.g. flight data is very timely but conceptually weak)• Add information to an existing source• Improve the balance between accuracy and timeliness• Improve small areas and geographies estimates
• Examples: Combine different data sources, with differing levels of accuracy• To produce migration estimates at different levels of geography (e.g. survey data for national totals/administrative data for sub-national)• To produce migration estimates by various characteristics of the population (e.g. Bayesian methods to provide estimates for areas/characteristics with scarce
observations)
• Examples: Information from one data set used to inform another data set• Combining migration flow data gathered by other countries to estimate international migration flows• Characteristics missing from one data set are imputed via the identification of similar individuals on another data set (e.g. trained logistic regression models to
identify the probability that an individual has a certain characteristic, such as refugee or legal status) 9
Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Micro-data integration methods• Record linkage of Administrative data
• PIN/SSN (especially countries with population registers)• Family identifiers (names)• Combination of multiple personal identifiers, aka deterministic linking• Probabilistic linking of administrative sources
• Countries without PIN/SSN• Statistical matching with survey and census data• Parametric and nonparametric approaches• Integration of multiple survey databases• Integration of survey and census data• Integration of administrative data with census data
• Data quality assurance
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
US Census Bureau: Net International Migration (NIM) Estimates
• Produce annual estimates of international migration flows to and from the United States
• Geographic Levels: Nation, state, and county• Characteristics: Age, Sex, race/Hispanic origin
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
NIM Components
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Foreign-born immigration
Foreign-born emigration
Net Puerto Rico migration
Net Native-born
migration
Net International
Migration
Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
U.S. Census Bureau SurveysAmerican Community Survey
(ACS)
• Implemented in 2005, estimates released annually
• Large sample allows for studying small levels of geography
• Relevant questions: country of birth, U.S. citizenship status, year of naturalization, year of entry, residence one year ago, race, ethnicity, language spoken at home
Current Population Survey (CPS)
• Primary data source for U.S. labor force statistics
• Began in 1940’s so allows for time series analyses
• Contains most foreign bornitems in ACS plus parental place of birth & reason for moving
Survey of Income Participation (SIPP)
• Longitudinal survey; each panel is about four years long
• Relevant questions: whether born in U.S., citizenship status
• Topical module contains information on immigration status upon entry to the U.S., whether and when status changed to permanent resident, country of previous home
Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Flow Estimates from Administrative Data• Migration flows can be estimated via visas issued, landing cards, legal resident status changes,
population registration, etc. • Administrative data are not well integrated into the U.S. statistical system, particularly for
international migration
• U.S. administrative data collected by many different agencies• Department of Homeland Security Office (DHS), State Department, Department of Justice, etc.
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
U.S. Administrative Data Sources on International Migration
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Internal Revenue Service
Federal Tax Exemptions•Movement•Subnational
totals
Individual Tax ID Number (ITIN)•Movement•Implied non-
citizenship•Implied Year of
Entry
Social Security Administration
Numident•Age•Sex•Country of Birth•Implied Year of
Entry
Citizenship and Immigration
Services
Lawful Permanent Resident (LPR)•Class of Admission
•Country of Birth/Cit
•Demographic Characteristics
•Year of Status Change
Affirmative Asylee
Statistics
Customs and Border
Protection
Arrival and Departure
Information System (ADIS)
Immigration and Customs Enforcement
Student and Exchange
Visitor Information
System (SEVIS)
Bureau of Transportation
Statistics
Airline Passenger Data•Entries•Exits
Land Border Crossing Data•Entries Only
Department of State
Visa Statistics•Year Visa Issued•Country•Visa Class
Worldwide Refugee
Admissions Processing
System (WRAPS)
Department of Justice
Defensive Asylee
Statistics
In use
Needs processing
Not acquired
Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Challenges for U.S. Data System• Decentralized Federal statistical system
• Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Homeland Security, State Department, Department of Justice, etc.
• Difficult-to-count migrant groups• Sample size limitations• Non-response• Legal status not collected on most census data
• Refugees• Irregular migrants
• Measurement of emigration• Not collected
• Foreign born• Residual method
• Native born• International data sources
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Challenges for improving international migration estimates at the US Census Bureau
• The American Community Survey (ACS) is our primary data source• Annual survey of about 2 million households
• Sample size limitations for characteristics, particularly at the subnational (county) level
• Pool multiple years of data (impacts recency of estimates)
• Increased concern about non-response• Legal status not collected
• Refugees, Irregular migrants, etc.
• Data quality• Ex: Year of Entry: heaping, first or most recent move, etc.
• Recent events impacting migration (e.g. Hurricane Maria and Puerto Rico, COVID-19, drastic policy changes, etc.)
• Timeliness of data17
Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Macro-data integration example: Adjustments for the impact of COVID-19 on Net International Migration Estimates
• Needed to measure the impact of an event that was not covered by current data• Prior experience integrating flight data and household survey data to adjust US to Puerto Rico
migration in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria
• Investigated a wide array of alternative data sources to measure the impact of COVID-19 on international migration to/from the United States
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
US Migration Policy Changes Resulting from the COVID-19 Pandemic (March 2020-Onwards)
• Border closures• Closure of US land borders with Mexico and Canada, except for commerce and essential travel (initially implemented March 21,
extended in July)• Flight restrictions from China (February) and European Union (March), for example
• 98% reduction in international flight traffic in April
• Visa restrictions• Visa issuing offices closed outside the United States, greatly reducing number of approved visas (March 20, 2020)
• Executive Orders• Ban travel of non-residents from certain countries• “Pausing” legal immigration (issuance of green cards, family based visas) (April 22, 2020, extended to the end of year)
• Expanded to include most forms of legal migration, especially employment-based (H1B)
• Other• US citizens/legal residents living abroad encouraged to return for fear of border closures (March 2020)
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Measurement• The Population Estimates Program uses American Community Survey (ACS) data on residence one year
ago to produce net international migration (NIM) estimates (July 1st, 2020)• The Vintage 2020 estimates will use 2019 ACS data, which would not measure the impact of COVID-19
• Two tasks to measure impact of COVID-19 on NIM• Develop method to make adjustment to NIM
• Run normal production to develop NIM estimates, and then:A. Do nothingB. Set total monthly NIM to 1/2 for March, "0" for April-June using basic assumption of zero net migration gain/lossC. Adjust total NIM based on other data sourcesD. Adjust individual NIM sub-components based on other data sourcesE. Combination of B-D
• Utilize more up-to-date data sources (March-June 2020)• Limited availability at time of production (September 2020)• Special tabulations from different agencies
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Adjustment Methods/Data Sources• Total NIM
• Flight data adjustment based on past historical relationship of net passenger movement and NIM (unsuccessful)
• Foreign-Born Immigration• Visas issued abroad; I-94 arrival data
• Immigration decreased significantly
• Foreign-Born Emigration• Canadian flight data and Mexican border data
• Emigration decreased significantly
• Net Native Migration• Administrative data on permanent and temporary migrants to Canada from the US• US flight data
• Suggest there was not a net loss (large return in March, some net outflow from April-June)
• Puerto Rico• Flight data to/from Puerto Rico and mainland US (March-June “observed” vs “expected”)
• Reduced net outmigration from Puerto Rico 21
Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
NIM Estimates and Net Air Passenger Traffic from/to the United States: 2010-2018
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2010-2018 Population Estimates; U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics 2010-2018..
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Net Canada Air Travel Net Mexico Air Travel Net Total Air Travel Census NIM Estimate
Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
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Data Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics Form 41, T100 (International) Segment All Carriers; US Census Bureau, Population Division, V2019 Population Estimates
Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Flight Data: Inbound and Outbound Passengers
In 2020, inbound and outbound passenger totals fall well below 2019 levels:
• Higher-than-expected net inflow for Feb and Mar (previous slide), but both inbound and outbound passengers declined for those months
• Outbound passengers declining faster than inbound passengers
Data Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics Form 41, T100 (International) Segment All Carriers
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inbo
und
and
Out
boun
d Ai
r Pas
seng
ers (
x 1,
000)
Month of Travel
2019 Inbound 2019 Outbound 2020 Inbound 2020 Outbound
Inbound and outbound passengers for Apr 2020 fell to 2% of Apr 2019 levels
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Visas Issued Overseas and Foreign-Born Immigration
• Bureau of Consular Affairs began reporting monthly numbers in March 2017
• Seasonal patterns consistent before March 2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Visa
s Iss
ued
(x 1
,000
)
Month of Issuance
2017 2018 2019 2020
Visa issuance in June 2020 fell to 12% of June 2019 levels
Data Source: Department of State, Bureau of Consular Affairs Visa Statistics
Visa issuance in Mar 2020 was 62% of Mar 2019 levels
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Adjust Foreign-Born Emigration: Country Data
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Land
Bor
der T
rave
lers
(x 1
,000
)
Month Surveyed in Mexico
Travelers to Mexico by Land
2019 Entry to Mexico 2020 Entry to Mexico
Travelers in Apr 2020 fell to 41% of Apr 2019 levels
Data Source: Mexican Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), Border Traveler Survey (EVF); Statistics Canada, Border Enumeration from Primary Information Kiosks
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inbo
und
Air P
asse
nger
s (x
1,00
0)
Month of Entry into Canada
Canadian Citizens Returning to Canada from US by Air2018 Entry to Canada 2019 Entry to Canada2020 Entry to Canada
Jun 2020 fell to 9% of the average of Jun 2018 and Jun 2019 levels
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Adjust Net US-Born Migration: Country Data
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perm
anen
t Im
mig
rant
s
Permanent Immigration to Canada by Country of Birth
2019 US Born 2019 Other Foreign Born
2020 US Born 2020 Other Foreign Born
Data Source: Statistics Canada; Immigration, Refugees & Citizenship Canada (IRCC)
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Net
Tem
pora
ry M
igra
nts
Net Temporary Migration to Canada (US Born Only)
2018 2019 2020
More US-born temporary migrants were leaving Canada than entering
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Net
Pas
seng
ers
Calendar Year
Puerto Rico Net Airline Passenger Flow Data: 2016, 2019-2020
2016 2019Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Airline Passenger Data
Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
NIM Adjustment Scenarios• Data were limited for making adjustments
• Special tabulations from US Bureau of Transportation Statistics, US Office of Immigration Statistics, Statistics Canada
• Tried multiple methods/scenarios• Flight data could not be used to adjust total NIM
• General assumptions• Very likely that migration declined in March 2020 and remained low during the last quarter (April-June) of
“Estimates Year” 2020 (near net “0”)• Averaged estimates derived from eight different 2020 NIM series based on varying assumptions
applied to March-June 2020.• First four scenarios assume “0” net migration for total NIM, or part of NIM, while last four adjust individual
subcomponents of NIM• “0” net for April-June• ½ NIM for March• 10% monthly levels for sub-components (April-June)• Different estimates for Puerto Rico (based on ratio of observed-to-expected net passenger flights)• Adjustment for net native return in March
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Results/Questions• Range of 87,000 between high and low estimates (8 series)• Changing adjustment factors (.05 or .15) for scenarios had little impact on
NIM estimates (+/- 5,000)• COVID-19 adjustments decreased EY2020 NIM by 24%
• Essentially the same as setting NIM to “0” for 3 months• Net native migration a big mystery
• Return of US Citizens in March, potential departures in April-June?• We will potentially find out the answers once more data become available in
coming months/years (OIS/2020 and 2021 ACS/Puerto Rico Community Survey, Internal Revenue Service tax returns, etc.)
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Micro-data integration example: Integrated Database on International Migration (IDIM)• Difficulty obtaining detailed information from the Department of Homeland Security on
international migration• US Census Bureau has standing agreements with the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and Social
Security Administration (SSA) to receive data for use in our estimates, but have not been used to the measure international migration
• Developing an integrated data base which links these administrative sources, as well as with the American Community Survey (ACS). Uses SSA data as “spine”
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Data Linking across data sets• The Census Numerical Identification File (NUMIDENT) is a dataset of unduplicated SSA records,
containing one record for every person ever issued a Social Security Number (SSN)
• Process to match persons across Census surveys and Federal data• Person Identification Validation System (PVS) • Probabilistic matching to match person data from an incoming file to a reference file (derived from
the NUMIDENT)• Name• Date of birth• Address
• Each matched person record is assigned a Protected Identification Key (PIK)• Unique identifier for each individual• Ensures confidentiality• Person linkage key
• PIKs link individual records between datasets • IRS, NUMIDENT, Census, and ACS linked to create IDIM
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
IDIM Administrative Data linked to Census
NUMIDENT IRS Census 2010
• Age • Sex • Country of Birth
• Geography • Race• Hispanic origin
*Race and Hispanic origin are imputed for the foreign born who entered after 2010.
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
IDIM Country of Birth Information
• “Country of Birth” (COB) collected from SSA (included on NUMIDENT)• Two steps to edit and clean COB:
1. Maximize record count for each country by combining records• Ex: Vietnam (VM), North Vietnam (VN), and South Vietnam (VS) recoded to Vietnam
(VM)2. Correct erroneous country codes
• Ex: Records coded to China (CH), that list city of birth as Santiago, recoded to Chile (CI)
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Application: NIM subnational distribution
• Current methodology distributes most NIM components based on recent foreign-born stock population (5-year ACS file)
• Lacks recency and accuracy of characteristics at the county-level
• Possibilities • IDIM to estimate national characteristics and subnational totals and characteristics
(completely replace ACS distributions)• IDIM to estimate totals and characteristics of counties below a certain population
threshold, while continue to use ACS for larger counties and all states (combine IDIM and ACS)
• Keep current methodology, but model county age distribution (or other characteristics) based on IDIM results
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Additional Research Applications• Foreign-Born Emigration: Take advantage of longitudinal nature of IRS tax return records, to track
foreign born who drop out of file, either temporarily or permanently (estimate rates/probabilities)
• Net Native migration• IRS tax filing addresses outside the United States (either at T1 or T2), with a consecutive year filing
address within the United States (measures both in- and out-flows)
• “Undocumented” migrants• Theoretically, ACS includes all migrants in sample, both authorized and unauthorized.
• Examine characteristics of ACS survey respondents not present in administrative data sources• Individual Tax Identification Records
• Tax IDs given to those not eligible for Social Security Numbers, many of whom are unauthorized migrants
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
IDIM Questions• Evaluation of IDIM foreign-born coverage
• Missing recent/irregular migrants?• How does IDIM compare to sample-based estimates?• Adjust IDIM to account for “new arrivals”?
• Do we still have to use a IDIM proxy universe (stocks) or can we estimate flows directly?
• Evaluation of ITIN tax data (tax IDs given to those ineligible for Social Security numbers)• Can we include them on the IDIM (currently on NUMIDENT)? • How much would this improve coverage?
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
Considerations when using administrative data to estimate international migration
• Data Accessibility• Data sharing mechanisms need to be in place (no guarantee data will be delivered)• Communication between agencies critical
• Data linking procedures• Deterministic or probabilistic• Longitudinal analysis
• Data protection
• Data quality issues• Data cleaning necessary• Emigration still problematic
• Data comparability: Operational/Definitional• Coverage (under and over)• Time period (Calendar vs Fiscal year)• How migrants are defined across data sources
• Counting events vs people• Duration of stay, usual residence, actual vs intended stay, temporary vs. permanent
• Status is fluid
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Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
The Future• Data Integration will become an important feature of international migration statistics
• Draw upon the strengths of each data source, mitigating their weaknesses
• Data privacy concerns will make micro-data integration much more difficult in the future• US Census Bureau will continue to pursue these avenues of research, including greater
incorporation of administrative data, as household survey-based estimates become less tenable (data privacy adjustments, increased non-response, especially by foreign-born respondents)
• Non-traditional data sources will likely need to be incorporated as well
39
Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 1: Integration of Administrative and Household Survey data at the US Census
Bureau to Measure International Migration_Jason Schachter
PART 2
Pitfalls in using administrative dataJason GAGNON
Statistical realityGeneral concept of
migration
Statistical concept and recommendation
Actual reflection in data
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Current statistical reference:
United Nations 1998 Recommendations on Statistics on International Migration
A long-term migrant is a person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months)
1953: Focused on impact of long-term settlement
1976: Focused on long-term settlement, but made statistics complicated
Since 2018: the United Nations Statistical Commission requested the UN Expert Group on Migration Statistics (created: 2017) to initiate a revision
Definition
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Current statistical reference:
United Nations 1998 Recommendations on Statistics on International Migration
A long-term migrant is a person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months)
1953: Focused on impact of long-term settlement
1976: Focused on long-term settlement, but made statistics complicated
Since 2018: the United Nations Statistical Commission requested the UN Expert Group on Migration Statistics (created: 2017) to initiate a revision
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Definition
Three parts to the definition:
1. Whether individual moved from one country to another country by crossing an international border
2. Where individual has changed her/his usual residence
3. How long the individual has been living in the current usual residence (duration)
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Breaking down the standard definition
Three parts to the definition:
1. Whether individual moved from one country to another country by crossing an international border
2. Where individual has changed her/his usual residence
3. How long the individual has been living in the current usual residence (duration)
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Breaking down the standard definition
Breaking down the standard definition
Three parts to the definition:
1. Whether individual moved from one country to another country by crossing an international border
2. Where individual has changed her/his usual residence
3. How long the individual has been living in the current usual residence (duration)
Usual residence: the country in which he or she normally spends the daily periods of rest.
Temporary travel abroad for purposes of recreation, holiday, visits to friends and relatives, business, medical treatment or religious pilgrimage does not change a person’s residence.
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Breaking down the standard definitionThree parts to the definition:
1. Whether individual moved from one country to another country by crossing an international border
2. Where individual has changed her/his usual residence
3. How long the individual has been living in the current usual residence (duration)
3 months 12 months
Long-term international migrant
Short-term international migrantVisitor
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Statistical interpretations of the 1998 statistical recommendation
Born in the current country Not born in the current country
Not national
of the current country
National of the
current country
Not an international migrant
International migrant
International migrant
Not an international migrant
sometimes…
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Major harmonised global sources
• OECD: based on census data in OECD countries
• WB: since 2007, first attempt at a global bilateral matrix
• United Nations, bilateral matrix
Focus on WB bilateral matrix
• Uses the foreign-born definition due to greater number of countries report data by place of birth
• definition less vulnerable to differences in naturalisation policies across countries
• it more readily accords to the actual movement of migrants, “which is the economist’s principal interest”
• At 2005 census round: the dataset contained information on source countries of foreign-born migrants for 96 destination countries and source countries of migrants counted by foreign nationality in 105 destination countries
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Consequences of the standard definition use
• IOM Chief at IFMS:
• We need to collect data reflecting what might be needed to plan for future migration scenarios, rather than just collecting data for the sake of it
• What policy realm are we trying to inform?
• Understanding overall human mobility flows
• Migrant integration experience
• Determinants of migration
• Impact of policy
• African migration realities
• Informality, circularity, fluid
• Border economies
• Forced displacement
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Data harmonisation
The case of Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire
How many Burkinabe are there in Côte d’Ivoire?
• According to CIV authorities: 3.5 million
• According to the UN: 1.4 million
How many emigrants from Burkina Faso?
• According to BFA authorities: 60k in 2006
• According to the UN: 1.2 million in CIV alone (in 2005)
3.5 million
1.4 million
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Consequences of the standard definition use
Consequences of the standard definition use
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Policy questions vs. definitional statistics• Reason for migration?
• Forced displacement• UNHCR (official status), legal protection• Forced displacement [>80% in African countries]
• From whose point of view?• Based on status?• Based on pre-departure intentions (ie. Gallup)• Based on household surveys?
• Integration experience?• Access to services? Impact of policies?• Diaspora engagement?
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Reasons for migrating – status vs. individual responses
Reasons for migrating – status vs. individual responses
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Reasons for migrating – status vs. individual responses
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Government employment
agenciesVocational
trainingPublic
employment programmes
Agricultural subsidiesTraining
programmesInsurance-
based programmes
In-kind distribution
programmes
Cash-based programmes
Government subsidies / Tax
exemptionsAccess to bank
accountsFinancial training
programmes
Formal labour contractsMedical
insurance / Pensions
Access to health facilities
HHS flexibility: Integrating policy into migration surveys
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Beyond standard flows and stocks• Remittances
• Informal vs. formal channels• Costs (remittances within Africa are 4-5x more expensive from outside)
• Demographic trends• Implications for future flows, channels
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Some publications on migration and development2006
2007 2011
20172010 2014
2016 2018
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 2: Pitfalls in administration_Jason Gagnon
Thank you
Jason GAGNON
OECD Development Centre
twitter: _jasongagnon
PART 3
Administrative data sourcesNougbodohoue Samson Bel-Aube & Brian Okengo
Made possible with funding from the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community, Germany, represented by the Federal O�ce for Migration and Refugees (BAMF).
• Immigration Office• Ministry of Labour• Directorate of Work Permits• Social Security Agencies• Population registers• Border control statistics
Main sources of administrative data on migration
Part 3: Administrative data sources_ Nougbodohoue Samson Bel-Aube & Brian OkengoModule 6: Strengthening administrative data sources
Made possible with funding from the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community, Germany, represented by the Federal O�ce for Migration and Refugees (BAMF).
• More in-depth information can be collected through administrative sources
• No single source of information can tell us everything our users want to know, or fully reflect the complexity of our changing population
• Can provide highly detailed and accurate data on the individuals
• Can be linked alongside surveys, to improve the way we measure population stocks and flows
Why strengthen data on migrants through Administrative Sources?
Part 3: Administrative data sources_ Nougbodohoue Samson Bel-Aube & Brian OkengoModule 6: Strengthening administrative data sources
Made possible with funding from the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community, Germany, represented by the Federal O�ce for Migration and Refugees (BAMF).
• Different administrative sources can help in understanding better migrations aspects and reveals some of the different travel patterns made by migrants, such as circular patterns of movement
• Allows statistics to be produced more frequently
• Increase the timeliness of statistical outputs by allowing access to more up to date information concerning certain variables
Why strengthen data on migrants through Administrative Sources?
Part 3: Administrative data sources_ Nougbodohoue Samson Bel-Aube & Brian OkengoModule 6: Strengthening administrative data sources
Made possible with funding from the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community, Germany, represented by the Federal O�ce for Migration and Refugees (BAMF).
• Set up legal framework to access to the administrative data on migration. The legal framework should be in line with the African Charter on Statistics;
• Create a statistics unit/department in the Ministry of Immigration, Ministry of labour, Immigration Office, Social Security Agency
• Policy frameworks
• Organizational frameworks
• Technical frameworks - mechanisms of data transfer
Political Commitments
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 3: Administrative data sources_ Nougbodohoue Samson Bel-Aube & Brian Okengo
Made possible with funding from the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community, Germany, represented by the Federal O�ce for Migration and Refugees (BAMF).
• Set up/strengthen national coordination committees
• The Committee should comprise by all the main actors involved in data collection on Migration statistics
• The committee should approve the main tools for recording and collection of data on migration
• The committee should approve all the administrative data sources on migration statistics
Technical Commitments
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 3: Administrative data sources_ Nougbodohoue Samson Bel-Aube & Brian Okengo
Made possible with funding from the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community, Germany, represented by the Federal O�ce for Migration and Refugees (BAMF).
• Harmonization of concepts, definitions and methodologies for collecting migration data
• Elaborate Manual on concepts and definitions on migration
• Development of new insights of international migration trends by sector, education, occupation etc.
• Develop a comprehensive methodology for capturing reliable administrative data from various sources
• Develop data-driven rules and build an integrated system for measuring population and migration
Technical Commitments
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 3: Administrative data sources_ Nougbodohoue Samson Bel-Aube & Brian Okengo
Made possible with funding from the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community, Germany, represented by the Federal O�ce for Migration and Refugees (BAMF).
Thank you
Module 6: Strengthening administrative data sourcesPart 3: Administrative data sources_ Nougbodohoue Samson Bel-Aube & Brian Okengo