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Modern aspects of classical Modern aspects of classical branching processesbranching processes
Vladimir VatutinVladimir Vatutin(Steklov Mathematical Institute, (Steklov Mathematical Institute,
Moscow)Moscow)
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RURK DYNASTY (8??-1598)RURK DYNASTY (8??-1598)
Viking RURK
...
Ivan IV (The Terrible)
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Ivan the Terrible is killing his Ivan the Terrible is killing his son (Painter - Il’ya Repin)son (Painter - Il’ya Repin)
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RURK DYNASTY (8??-1598)RURK DYNASTY (8??-1598)
Viking RURK
...
Ivan IV (The Terrible)
Fedor died in 1598
Ivan (killed by his father in 1581)
Dmitrii (died in 1591 of an epileptic fit)
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ROMANOV DYNASTY (1613-ROMANOV DYNASTY (1613-1917)1917)
Mikhail Romanov
....
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ROMANOV DYNASTY (1613-ROMANOV DYNASTY (1613-1917)1917)
Peter I
Mikhail Romanov
....
Catherine The Great
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ROMANOV DYNASTY (1613-1917)
Peter I
Alexandr II
Mikhail Romanov
....
Catherine The Great
Nikolay II
Alexandr III
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A PART OF QUEEN VICTORIA A PART OF QUEEN VICTORIA DYNASTYDYNASTY
Queen Victoria
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A PART OF QUEEN VICTORIA DYNASTY
Queen Victoria
PrincessAlice
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A PART OF QUEEN VICTORIA A PART OF QUEEN VICTORIA DYNASTYDYNASTY
Queen Victoria
PrincessAlice
PrincessAlix
Ludvig IVGrand Duke
Of HesseAnd by Rhine
.........
Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh
Queen Elizabeth II
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ROMANOV-GOTTORP DYNASTY (1613-1917)
Peter I
Alexandr II
Mikhail Romanov
....
Catherine The Great
Alexei
Nikolay II
Alexandr III
Queen Victoria
(haemophilia)
PrincessAlice
PrincessAlix
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ROMANOV-GOTTORP DYNASTY (1613-1917)
Peter I
Alexandr II
Mikhail Romanov
....
Catherine The Great
Alexei
Nikolay II
Alexandr III
Queen Victoria
(haemophilia)
PrincessAlice
PrincessAlix
Rasputin
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T. R. Malthus T. R. Malthus : An Essay on the Principle of : An Essay on the Principle of Population as it Affects the Future of Population as it Affects the Future of
Society, 1798)Society, 1798)
379379 out of out of 487487 bourgeois families in bourgeois families in the city Berne extinct between the city Berne extinct between 1583 1583 and and 17831783
The proportion of extinct families is The proportion of extinct families is 379/487379/487, that is more than , that is more than 0.750.75 (!) in (!) in approximately approximately 66 generations generations
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Galton-Watson processGalton-Watson process
0
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Galton-Watson processGalton-Watson process
0
1
1
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Galton-Watson processGalton-Watson process
0
1
1
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2
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Galton-Watson processGalton-Watson process
0
1
1
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3
2
2
3
3
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Galton-Watson processGalton-Watson process
0
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2
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Growth and ExtinctionGrowth and Extinction
AA= the average number of children per individual= the average number of children per individual
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Growth and Extinction Growth and Extinction
AA= the average number of children per individual = the average number of children per individual
A<1A<1 – – subsubcritical process – always critical process – always diesdies
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Growth and ExtinctionGrowth and Extinction
AA= the average number of children per individual = the average number of children per individual
A<1A<1 – – subsubcritical process – always critical process – always diesdies
A=1A=1 – critical process -- always – critical process -- always diesdies
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Growth and ExtinctionGrowth and Extinction
AA= the average number of children per individual = the average number of children per individual
A<1A<1 – – subsubcritical process – always critical process – always diesdies
A=1A=1 – critical process -- always – critical process -- always diesdies
A>1A>1 – – supersupercritical process – survives with a positive critical process – survives with a positive probabilityprobability
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North Atlanitic Right WhaleNorth Atlanitic Right Whale
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ExtinctionExtinction of North Atlantic of North Atlantic WhalesWhales
• `The average number of female children `The average number of female children = A= A• The current size of the female population approx. The current size of the female population approx. 150150• (Data for A from Caswell H., Fujimagara, M., Brault S.,1999)(Data for A from Caswell H., Fujimagara, M., Brault S.,1999)
395796n<Extinction with probability >0.99 in n years
177 357n>Survival with probability >0.99 for at least n years
0.9760.988A<1 (!!!)
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The average size of the North The average size of the North Atlantic Right Whales Atlantic Right Whales populationpopulation• Current size approximately Current size approximately
150150 female individuals female individuals
• Upper graph: Upper graph: A=0.988A=0.988
• Lower graph: Lower graph: A=0.976A=0.976
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