Models of Famine, Early Warning Models of Famine, Early Warning

Systems and Policy ResponsesSystems and Policy Responses

Stephen DevereuxStephen Devereux

Institute of Development Studies (UK)Institute of Development Studies (UK)

Summer School on “Food Security and

Famine Prevention in Developing Countries”

Civita Castellana, Italy ~ 13 July 2006

Why do famines happen?Why do famines happen?

Climatic Theories

Demographic Theories

Sen’s ‘Entitlement Approach’

‘Complex Emergencies’

Famine early warning and responseFamine early warning and response

What is ‘famine’?What is ‘famine’?

New directions in famine thinkingNew directions in famine thinking

““A famine is a food shortage leading A famine is a food shortage leading to widespread death by starvation.”to widespread death by starvation.”

But ~ famines have occurred:But ~ famines have occurred:

with no food shortage with no food shortage [[Bangladesh 1974Bangladesh 1974];];

where death was caused by disease, not where death was caused by disease, not

starvation starvation [[Sudan 1984Sudan 1984];];

with no “excess mortality” with no “excess mortality” [[Sahel 1972-74Sahel 1972-74].].

WHAT IS FAMINE?WHAT IS FAMINE?

““famine is a socio-economic process which causes famine is a socio-economic process which causes

the accelerated destitution of the most vulnerable, the accelerated destitution of the most vulnerable,

marginal and least powerful groups in a community, marginal and least powerful groups in a community,

to a point where they can no longer, as a group, to a point where they can no longer, as a group,

maintain a sustainable livelihood.”maintain a sustainable livelihood.”

~ Peter Walker (1989)~ Peter Walker (1989)

A good “outsider” definition:

Triggers Processes

CLIMATOLOGY

Drought

Floods

Desertification

Global warming

DEMOGRAPHY / NUTRITION

Epidemics Malthusianism

ECONOMICS

Market failure

Entitlement failure

Poverty

Infrastructure

POLITICS

War

Response failure

Colonialism

Govt. policy

WHY DO FAMINES HAPPEN?WHY DO FAMINES HAPPEN?

Climate TheoriesClimate Theories

Theories: • “Famine belts”• “Drought causes famine”• “Climate change”.

Negative impacts:

• Crop production• Assets (e.g. livestock)• Food prices• Community assistance.

Critique: • Partial explanation• “Inability to cope” is the problem• Vulnerability needs to be addressed.

Demographic TheoriesDemographic Theories

(1) Population increases indefinitely, but land is strictly limited;

(2) The demand for food will eventually exceed potential food production;

(3) Famine acts as a “natural check” on population growth.

Critique:

Malthus:

(1) Malthus failed to foresee: the agricultural revolution; the transport revolution; the industrial revolution; the demographic transition.

(2) Famine is not a “Malthusian leveller”.

Demographic Impact of China's 1958-62 FamineDemographic Impact of China's 1958-62 Famine

550

650

750

850

950

1050

Year

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illio

ns)

Entitlement ApproachEntitlement Approach

Four categories of entitlement:Four categories of entitlement:

Entitlement category In other words…

Production-based what you grow

Trade-based what you buy

Own-labour-based what you earn

Transfer-based what you are given

““Entitlement failure”Entitlement failure”

Subsis-Subsis-tencetence

Labour

Trade Labour

ProductionTrade

Production

Pre-Pre-DroughtDrought

DroughtDrought

““Entitlement failure”Entitlement failure”

Subsis-Subsis-tencetence

Labour Transfers

Trade Labour

ProductionTrade

Production

Pre-Pre-DroughtDrought

DroughtDrought

Strengths:Strengths:

Sen’s critique:Sen’s critique:

More critiques:More critiques:

Demand-side emphasis

Disaggregates food availability

Analysis of “boom famines”.

“Fuzzy” entitlements

Legal rights only

“Choosing to starve”?

Legalistic terminology

Apolitical and ahistorical

Dependency entitlements?

Famine mortality.

Complex EmergenciesComplex Emergencies

• War disrupts food production

• Food stores are destroyed or appropriated

• Trade and aid flows are disrupted

• Local economies are undermined

• Community coping strategies are undermined

• Government services are interrupted

• Refugees are created.

Famine as a Famine as a sequencesequence of of “entitlement “entitlement failures”failures”

PRODUCTION PRODUCTION

ENTITLEMENTSENTITLEMENTS

Drought / El Niño / ConflictDrought / El Niño / Conflict

Population (Malthusianism)Population (Malthusianism)

MARKET‑BASED MARKET‑BASED

ENTITLEMENTSENTITLEMENTS

Market failure/ collapseMarket failure/ collapse

Exchange entitlement failureExchange entitlement failure

TRANSFER TRANSFER

ENTITLEMENTSENTITLEMENTS

Informal safety nets failureInformal safety nets failure

Food aid failureFood aid failure

“ “Anti-famine “social contracts” Anti-famine “social contracts” [India][India]

Accountability and the “right to food”Accountability and the “right to food”

Donor – Government relations Donor – Government relations [Malawi][Malawi]

““Pre-modern” and “Post-modern” famine Pre-modern” and “Post-modern” famine [Iraq][Iraq]

“ “New Variant Famine” New Variant Famine” [HIV/AIDS].[HIV/AIDS].

NEW DIRECTIONS IN FAMINE THINKINGNEW DIRECTIONS IN FAMINE THINKING

Democracy and famine Democracy and famine preventionprevention

INDIAINDIA AFRICAAFRICA

Limited civil conflictLimited civil conflict Conflict and insecurityConflict and insecurity

Free pressFree press Constrained pressConstrained press

Vigorous civil societyVigorous civil society Weak civil societyWeak civil society

Low donor dependenceLow donor dependence High donor dependenceHigh donor dependence

““Anti-famine contract”Anti-famine contract” No anti-famine contractNo anti-famine contract

No More FaminesNo More Famines Persistent FaminesPersistent Famines

Established democracyEstablished democracy Emerging democraciesEmerging democracies

FAMINE EARLY WARNINGFAMINE EARLY WARNING

Famine Intensity ScaleFamine Intensity Scale:: 1 = Food insecurity1 = Food insecurity 2 = Food crisis2 = Food crisis 3 = Famine3 = Famine 4 = Severe famine4 = Severe famine 5 = Extreme famine5 = Extreme famine

Early Warning IndicatorsEarly Warning Indicators:: Food AvailabilityFood Availability = Harvests; food stocks = Harvests; food stocks Access to FoodAccess to Food = Market prices; Dietary Diversity = Market prices; Dietary Diversity Outcome Indicators = Malnutrition; CMR = Malnutrition; CMR Social IndicatorsSocial Indicators = Coping Strategies Index. = Coping Strategies Index.

Application of “famine scales” in SomaliaApplication of “famine scales” in Somalia

Building accountability from above:Building accountability from above: First levelFirst level: National Government: National Government

National

government

Affected population

Building accountability from above:Building accountability from above: Second levelSecond level: Government + : Government + DonorsDonors

World Food Programme

National

government

Affected population

Seco

nd

levelF

irst level

Main

path

way to

accou

ntab

ility

Building accountability from above:Building accountability from above: Alternate routeAlternate route: “Food Security : “Food Security Ombudsperson”Ombudsperson”

World Food Programme

National

government

Affected population

Food security ombudsperson

Seco

nd

levelF

irst level

Altern

ative path

way to

accou

ntab

ility

Main

path

way to

accou

ntab

ility

Building accountability from above:Building accountability from above: Alternate routeAlternate route: Ombudsperson + “Right : Ombudsperson + “Right to Food”to Food”

World Food Programme

UN Secretariat:

“Right to Food”

National

government

UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)

Affected population

Food security ombudsperson

Seco

nd

levelF

irst level

Altern

ative path

way to

accou

ntab

ility

Main

path

way to

accou

ntab

ility

CONCLUSION: THE “NEW CONCLUSION: THE “NEW FAMINES”FAMINES”

Past famines were understood as “acts of God” Past famines were understood as “acts of God” (natural disasters, natural population growth);(natural disasters, natural population growth);

Most contemporary famines are “acts of man” Most contemporary famines are “acts of man” (they are caused by human (they are caused by human actionaction or or inactioninaction););

Even when production and market failures occur, Even when production and market failures occur, famines are not inevitable until famines are not inevitable until transferstransfers also fail; also fail;

““New famines” are more New famines” are more politicalpolitical because they because they are almost always are almost always predictablepredictable and and preventablepreventable..