Modello di emissioni inquinanti atmosferici da incendi boschivi

Mihaela Mircea, Gaia RighiniNational Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable

Economic Development (ENEA), via Martiri di Monte Sole 4, 40129, Bologna, Italy

Sandro FinardiARIANET Srl, Via Gilino, 9, 20128, Milan, Italy

Plenaria Bologna, 24 marzo 2011

Sviluppo MINNI

Wild land fires

Despite several good examples that show the impact of domestic and extra EU wild-land fires on air quality and that highlight how this contribution can determine an exceedance of the daily average concentration of 50 µg/m3 for the PM101, no exhaustive method for the identification and the quantification of the impact of wild-land fires episodes have been developed and communicated to the Commission in the framework of the annual report on air quality assessment. (Guidance on natural contributions, Brussels, 15.02.2011)

Modello di emissioni da incendi – stima della quantità di inquinanti emessa dai fuocchi

AreaCEFLEF=Emiss speciespecie

Emiss - emissioni (kg)

EF – fattore di emissione per specie (kg/kg)

FL – massa di biomassa per area (kg/m2)

CE – efficienza di combustione

Area - area bruciata (m2)

Specie emesse:

Gas: CO,CH4,NH3,NMHC,NOx,SO2,CO2

Aerosol:PM2.5,PM10

Approccio “bottom-up”

1 URFA

2 INCO

3 AIRP

4 OART

5 ARAB

6 RICE

7 CROP

8 PAST

9 HAGR

10 BROA

11 CONI

12 MIXF

13 GRAS

14 SHRU

15 SAND

16 BARE

17 SPAR

18 ICEF

19 INWE

20 COWE

21 WATE

22 INWA

FARM

URFA

INCO

AIRP

OART

ARAB

RICE

CROP

PAST

HAGR

BROA

CONI

MIXF

GRAS

SHRU

SAND

BARE

SPAR

ICEF

INWE

COWE

WATE

INWA

1artificial surfaces

2agricultural surface

3 forest

4 grass

5 mixed

7 other

6 water

FARM

3VEG

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

agric forest grass mixed

emis

sions(

ktones

)

VEG

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

ARAB RICE CROP PAST HAGR BROA CONI MIXF GRAS SHRU SPAR

emis

sions(

ktones

)

EFFIS: area bruciata e emissioni in funzione del numero di classi di vegetazioneLuglio 2005

3VEG

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

agric forest grass mixed

burn

t ar

ea (ha)

Domain

Italy

Total burnt area in domain: 243889 haTotal burnt area in Italy: 76666 ha

VEG

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

ARAB RICE CROP PAST HAGR BROA CONI MIXF GRAS SHRU SPAR

burn

t ar

ea (ha)

Domain

Italy

Total burnt area in domain: 253752 haTotal burnt area in Italy: 79463 ha

EFFIS: emissioni di varie specie in funzione del numero di classi di vegetazioneLuglio 2005

3VEG

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

e_PM10 e_PM25 e_NOx e_NH3 e_SO2 e_NMHCS e_CH4

emis

sions(

ktones

)

Domain

Italy

3VEG

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

emis

sions(

ktones

)

Domain

Italy

Total emissions in domain: 7894 ktonesTotal emissions in Italy: 1979 ktones

VEG

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

e_PM10 e_PM25 e_NOx e_NH3 e_SO2 e_NMHCS e_CH4

emis

sions(

ktones

)

Domain

Italy

EFFIS-year

VEG

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

emis

sions(

ktones

)Domain

Italy

EFFIS-year

Total emissions in domain: 8360 ktonesTotal emissions in Italy: 2037 ktones

MODIS: area bruciata e emissioni in funzione del numero di classi di vegetazioneLuglio 2005

3VEG

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

agric forest grass mixed

burn

t ar

ea (ha)

Total burnt area in domain: 385668 ha

VEG

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

ARAB RICE CROP PAST HAGRBROA CONI MIXF GRAS SHRU SPAR

burn

t ar

ea (ha)

Total burnt area in domain: 457256 ha

3VEG

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

agric forest grass mixed

emis

sions(

ktones

)

Total emissions in domain:8216 ktones

VEG

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

ARAB RICE CROP PAST HAGR BROA CONI MIXF GRAS SHRU SPAR

emis

sions(

ktones

)

Total emissions in domain: 10520 ktones

EFFIS: emissioni di varie specie in funzione del numero di classi di vegetazioneLuglio 2005

3VEG

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

e_PM10 e_PM25 e_NOx e_NH3 e_SO2 e_NMHCS e_CH4

emis

sions(

ktones

)

3VEG

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

emis

sions(

ktones

)

Total emissions in domain:8216 ktones

VEG

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

e_PM10 e_PM25 e_NOx e_NH3 e_SO2 e_NMHCS e_CH4

emis

sions(

ktones

)

MODIS

EFFIS-year

VEG

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

emis

sions(

ktones

)MODIS

EFFIS-year

Total emissions in domain: 10520 ktones

Confronto le emissioni derivati da MODIS e EFFIS

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

e_CO2

e_CO

e_PM

10

e_PM

25

e_NOx

e_NH3

e_SO2

e_NM

HCS

e_CH4

(VEG-V

EG3)

/VEG3

EFFIS

MODIS

FAS-FMI (Sofiev et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 6833–6847, 2009)

“…admixture of gaseous species is emitted in addition to PM: 94% of CO, 1.3% of HCHO, 2.9% of NOx as NO2 ,1.4% of NH3 , and 0.4% of SO2 (mass fractions as species). The gaseous emission flux is assumed to be 7.9 times larger than the particulate mass flux. These fractions are assumed to be valid for all European land use types.”

“We assumed that inside the fire plumes, the AOD was entirely determined by the biomass-burning products. It is partly supported by S07 analysis, as they found that more than 80% of PM2.5 during a specific episode in May 2006 was originated from fires. We therefore attributed all systematic discrepancy between the observed and calculated column AOD to errors in the emission rates, and corrected the emission factors accordingly.The resulting emission coefficients for the European domain are the following: 0.035 kg tPM MJ−1 forest, 0.018 kg tPM MJ−1 for grassland.”

“For simple fire-detection purposes, the fire-classified pixel is attributed with the 4-μm brightness temperature T4 (this channel is the most-representative and least affected by other factors that are not connected with fires). The method is also known as hot-spot counting and the pixel temperature is further referred to in this study as the TA-value.”“As TA, the FRP data are included into the level 2 Fire Products (MOD14 for Terra and MYD14 for Aqua satellites) and are available with a comparatively short delay (usually within 1–2 days), which makes it possible to utilise them”

Confronto ENEA-MODIS con FAS-FMI

CO

CH

4*1

0

NH

3*1

0

NM

HC

*10

NO

X*1

0

PM

10

PM

2.5

SO

2*10

0.0E+00

2.0E+08

4.0E+08

6.0E+08

8.0E+08

1.0E+09

1.2E+09

1.4E+09

1.6E+09

3.6E+08

1.4E+08

3.9E+07

1.8E+08 1.6E+08

4.2E+07 3.5E+07 2.3E+07

4.6E+09

6.9E+086.4E+08

1.4E+09

6.3E+08

4.6E+08

2.0E+08

ENEA/MODIS-BAPFMI/FAS

ENEA-MODIS: Differences in emissions (kg) from wildfires due to B, CE and ei for July 2007.

Emissions(kg) co ch4 nh3 nmhc nox pm10 pm25 so2 co2

Max7.82E

+083.25E

+079.29E

+065.02E

+074.11E

+071.01E+

088.38E+0

74.97E+0

6 1.46E+10

Orig3.58E

+081.41E

+073.90E

+061.83E

+071.56E

+074.18E+

073.54E+0

72.31E+0

6 6.83E+09

max/orig 2.18 2.30 2.38 2.74 2.63 2.42 2.37 2.15 2.14

Conclusioni preliminari

• La descrizione della vegetazione con più classi aumenta le emissioni

• I valori dei FL, CE e EF per le 3 classi di vegetazione non sono derivati da quelli per la vegetazione descritta con più classi

• Le emissioni di EFFIS e MODIS sono diverse perché le area bruciate sono diverse: per esempio EFFIS esclude molti fuochi in area agricole.

• EFFIS mostra che le emissioni degli incendi all’estero sono più grandi di quelli sull’Italia.

• La variazione massima delle emissioni dovuta ai parametri che caratterizzano i fuochi è circa un fattore 3 – stime finale in corso…

• Tra FAS e ENEA c’è una differenza di un fattore 10: approcci completamente diversi

Problemi nelle stime delle emissioni dai fuochi in Italia

Quale sorgente usare per identificare i VERI fuochi: EFFIS o MODIS?

Quali valori usare per FL,CE e EF? C’è la possibilità di aver valori rappresentative per l’area mediterranea?

Come fare la “calibrazione” del modello che stima le emissioni dei fuochi?

Come stimare l’altezza dei fuochi e il ciclo giornaliero?

In Italia, il trasporto delle sabbie sahariane e il contributo antropico alto all’aerosol esclude nella maggior parte dei casi

l’utilizzo dei dati satellitari per rispondere alle ultime tre domande

Open wild-fires: guidance on natural sources (15 febbraio 2011)

The average of the PM10 concentrations registered in the 15 days before and in the 15 days after the episode in the reference time series is used as the background concentration. The difference between the concentrations measured during the episode and the above mentioned 30 days (episode days excluded) should be considered as contribution of the wild-land fires episodes. In case that the duration of the event is significant compared to 30 days, a more elaborate scheme may be necessary to adequately estimate the concentration levels without the wild land fire contribution.

Compile data of a simultaneous time series for the regional background modelling, regional background station) relevant to the assessed site or area. The reference series that is not obtained through direct measurement has to be thoroughly validated and fit for purpose.

The burning (naturally or man-made) of non-managed and managed forests and other vegetation, excluding agricultural burning of stubble etc.

Wild-land fires are usually of anthropogenic origin, and may be prevented or controlled with appropriate actions to a significant extent. Member States should therefore effectively address this contribution in view of the possibility of subtraction only if the emissions are transported from regions outside the Member State (see Section 3.2.4) and when provisions of Directive 2008/50/EC related to the transboundary pollution have been applied. If the fire has extended from another Member State any deductions of the common contribution need to be accompanied with the description of measures taken at the short term to eliminate the fire and reduce the exposure of the population.