Modelling the effects of drug dose in hierarchical network ...€¦ · (e.g., Low, Medium, and High...

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Modelling the effects of drug dose in hierarchical network meta-analysis models to account for variability in treatment classifications Areti Angeliki Veroniki, MSc, PhD Prepared for: 2016 CADTH Symposium April 12, 2016 C. Del Giovane, D. Jackson, S. E. Straus, S. Thomas, E. Blondal, K. Thavorn, A. C. Tricco Knowledge Translation Program, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada E-mail: [email protected]

Transcript of Modelling the effects of drug dose in hierarchical network ...€¦ · (e.g., Low, Medium, and High...

  • Modelling the effects of drug

    dose in hierarchical network

    meta-analysis models to account

    for variability in treatment

    classifications Areti Angeliki Veroniki, MSc, PhD

    Prepared for: 2016 CADTH Symposium

    April 12, 2016

    C. Del Giovane, D. Jackson, S. E. Straus, S. Thomas, E. Blondal, K. Thavorn, A. C. Tricco

    Knowledge Translation Program,

    Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute,

    St. Michael's Hospital,

    Toronto, Canada

    E-mail: [email protected]

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    I have no actual or potential conflict of interest in relation to this presentation

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    of the presentation

    • To present approaches to model the effects of drug dosages in hierarchical network meta-analysis (NMA)

    • How can we model dose-effects in NMA while accounting for the drug-dose relationship?

    • To present hierarchical NMA models accounting for effects of: 1) treatment, 2) strength (e.g., low, medium, high) of dose, and 3) specific dose

    • How do initial decisions on the network structure impact heterogeneity and inconsistency?

    • To illustrate examples of the available approaches

    • Does the effect size vary across different dose levels?

    • Is there a pattern in dose-effects?

    3

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Network Meta-analysis (NMA)

    NMA has become increasingly popular over the last two decades with ~500 publications

    Temporal distribution of publications (n=494)

    *2015 sample is not complete

    0.2%

    0.2%

    0.4%

    0.2%

    0.2%

    0.4%

    1.0%

    2.8%

    6.3%

    6.7%

    11.7%

    12.5%

    18.3%

    23.8%

    10.5%

    0 25 50 75 100 125

    1997

    1999

    2000

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    2014

    2015*

    2.4%

    2.4%

    • In many conditions there are multiple

    treatments that could be considered

    • When policy makers are considering

    what interventions to cover through

    health plans or what safety labels to

    put on medications, they need

    evidence from an NMA because this

    method uses all available RCTs for a

    specific clinical topic

    • Clinicians and patients need to know

    the safest and most effective

    treatment dose for a particular

    situation

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Combining placebo-controlled trials to learn about toothpaste vs. rinse may yield erroneous results!

    Salanti et al JCE 2009

    Common Dilemma in NMA…

    Lumping or splitting nodes?

    Typical approach: Choice between ‘lumping’ and ‘splitting’ methods

    Splitting:

    Allows comparison between different treatment doses

    ⊠ Ignores the relationship between doses that belong to the same intervention ⊠ May lead to a relatively small number of studies across comparisons resulting in

    considerable uncertainty around the overall treatment effects

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Common Dilemma in NMA…

    How do NMA authors deal with treatment doses?

    219 (44%) of 494 NMAs published up to April 14, 2015 included different treatment doses in the network

    Only 11 NMAs accounted

    properly for the treatment-dose

    relationship!

    Guidelines on modeling different dose-effects in NMA are imperative

    Lumping:

    Increases the amount of evidence across comparisons and hence precision in treatment effects

    ⊠ Ignores the different doses included in each intervention ⊠ Cannot model studies that compare the same treatment at different doses

    • Researchers have to select a specific dose for the underlying treatment

    • If no other treatment is compared in the particular study, the study has to be excluded.

    5%

    0

    20

    4

    0

    60

    8

    0

    Fre

    qu

    en

    cy

    NR Lump (L) Split (S) Recomm. Most Prevalent

    Model

    3%

    51%

    34%

    0.5% 0.5%

    S&L

    6%

    100

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Variance components added to each new level

    A B

    RCTs comparing 2 treatment

    dosages

    within-study variance

    Meta-analysis

    𝜇𝐴𝐵

    between-study variance Usually we assume common between-study variance across dose comparisons

    Network Meta-analysis

    Categorizing doses into groups (e.g., Low, Medium, and High doses)

    between-dose-category variance within treatment*

    *here the between dose variance is within dose-category (and not treatment)

    between-dose variance within treatment

    within dose category if doses are categorized

    into groups

    Categorizing doses into groups of treatments

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Modelling dose-effects in NMA

    Decision-makers are often interested in a treatment’s effectiveness at lower and higher doses

    Hierarchical models can be used to address dose-effects in NMA and to facilitate the identification of the most effective treatment and optimal dose

    B

    A

    E

    D C

    The potential dependence of treatment-effects of drug dose is an important issue for effectiveness and safety and is challenging in NMA because comparisons between interventions may vary in doses

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Modelling dose-effects in NMA Independent dose-effects

    Random dose-effects within treatments

    Fixed dose-effects

    Random dose-effects within different dose categories

    Del Giovane et al Stat Med 2013

    Dose-effects are related and exchangeable*

    All dose-effects are unrelated

    All dose-effects are assumed equal within the same treatment

    Dose-effects are related and exchangeable accounting for the dose-category they belong to

    a) within-study and b) between-study variance across doses

    a) within-study and b) between-study variance within dose level

    a) within-study, b) between-study within dose level, and c) between-dose variance within-treatment level

    a) within-study, b) between-study within dose level, c) between-dose within-dose-category level, and d) between-dose-category variance within-treatment level

    * Within the treatment they belong to

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Illustrative Examples

    1. Serotonin 5-hydroxytryptamine 3 (5HT3) receptor antagonists to treat patients undergoing surgery

    2. Anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) drugs to treat patients with wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD)

    * All analyses have been performed in a Bayesian framework using OpenBUGS

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Illustrative Example 1

    Aim

    To estimate the relative safety of

    5HT3 receptor antagonists at

    different dosages

    Serotonin 5-hydroxytryptamine 3 (5HT3) receptor antagonists to treat patients undergoing surgery

    • 5-HT3 receptor antagonists are commonly used to decrease nausea and

    vomiting for surgery patients

    • Evidence shows that these agents may be harmful, but it is unclear whether there

    are certain doses that increase the risk of arrhythmia

    • Clinicians and patients are interested in the safest treatment dose

    • We used data from a published systematic review and NMA

    Treatment Dose (mg) Placebo Ondansetron 1mg, 2mg, 3mg, 4mg, 8mg, 16mg, 24mg Granisetron 0.1mg, 1mg, 3mg Dolasetron 12.5mg, 25mg, 50mg, 100mg, 200mg Tropisetron 0.5mg, 2mg, 5mg Ramosetron 0.3mg, 0.9mg

    Tricco et al BMC Medicine 2015

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Illustrative Example 1

    • Patients of any age undergoing any type of surgery who were given a 5-HT3

    receptor antagonist for nausea and/or vomiting

    • Databases searched: MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of

    Controlled Trials; protocol registries and conference proceedings – up to January

    2013

    • One dichotomous outcome was considered to assess safety: arrhythmia –

    We will also assess efficacy using the vomiting outcome

    • 29 RCTs were eligible after the screening process

    • Exclusion:

    Compared a combination of treatments against a single treatment (1 study).

    Did not report the treatment dosages used (1 study).

    • In total, 27 studies were included in the analysis

    5HT3 receptor antagonists to treat patients undergoing surgery

    Tricco et al BMC Medicine 2015

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    5-HT3 receptor antagonists for surgery

    Tricco et al BMC Medicine 2015

    Arrhythmia : 27 studies, 8871 patients, 6 treatments, 21 doses

    Circles from outside in refer to: 1st: Fixed Effects model 2nd: Random Effects (with dose consistency) 3rd: Random Effects (no dose consistency) 4th: Independent Effects

    1 : Placebo 2 : Ondansetron-Fixed 3 : Ondansetron-1mg 4 : Ondansetron-2mg 5 : Ondansetron-3mg 6 : Ondansetron-4mg 7 : Ondansetron-8mg 8 : Ondansetron-16mg 9 : Ondansetron-24mg 10 : Granisetron-Fixed 11 : Granisetron-0.1mg 12 : Granisetron-1mg 13 : Granisetron-3mg

    14 : Dolasetron-Fixed 15 : Dolasetron-12.5mg 16 : Dolasetron-25mg 17 : Dolasetron-50mg 18 : Dolasetron-100mg 19 : Dolasetron-200mg 20 : Tropisteron-Fixed 21 : Tropisteron-0.5mg 22 : Tropisteron-2mg 23 : Tropisteron-5mg 24 : Ramosetron-Fixed 25 : Ramosetron-0.3mg 26 : Ramosetron-0.9mg

    safest

    Least safe

    Veroniki et al JCE 2016

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    5-HT3 receptor antagonists for surgery

    1 .0225 1 44.5

    OR (95% CrI) Common comparator: Placebo

    Dolasetron

    0.75 (0.52, 1.08)

    0.76 (0.51, 1.11)

    0.79 (0.47, 1.31)

    0.74 (0.54, 1.03)

    0.76 (0.40, 1.44)

    0.76 (0.50, 1.11)

    0.79 (0.46, 1.31)

    0.76 (0.53, 1.09)

    0.76 (0.53, 1.09)

    0.75 (0.51, 1.10)

    0.61 (0.32, 1.11)

    0.73 (0.50, 1.05)

    0.76 (0.50, 1.10)

    0.53 (0.24, 1.10)

    0.73 (0.48, 1.05)

    0.75 (0.51, 1.11)

    Fixed

    12.5mg

    25mg

    50mg

    100mg

    200mg

    Placebo better Active better

    0.88 (0.35, 2.23)

    0.84 (0.35, 2.33)

    1.21 (0.36, 4.34) 0.84 (0.34, 2.28)

    0.84 (0.35, 2.33) 0.62 (0.14, 2.48) 0.81 (0.33, 2.19) 0.88 (0.35, 2.23)

    0.88 (0.34, 2.24) 0.76 (0.18, 2.80) 0.82 (0.33, 2.22)

    Fixed

    0.1mg

    1mg

    3mg

    Granisetron

    1 .0225 1 44.5

    OR (95% CrI) Common comparator: Placebo

    Ondansetron

    Placebo better Active better

    0.91 (0.62, 1.30) 0.77 (0.42, 1.33) 0.89 (0.64, 1.20)

    1.01 (0.46, 2.00)

    0.90 (0.69, 1.18) 1.11 (0.54, 2.30) 0.92 (0.66, 1.30) 0.91 (0.62, 1.30) 1.37 (0.44, 4.51) 0.91 (0.65, 1.32) 0.91 (0.62, 1.30) 0.72 (0.19, 2.72) 0.90 (0.62, 1.27)

    0.77 (0.42, 1.33)

    0.91 (0.62, 1.30)

    0.91 (0.65, 1.28) 0.91 (0.62, 1.30) 0.95 (0.50, 1.75) 0.90 (0.65, 1.24) 0.91 (0.62, 1.30) 0.65 (0.18, 2.29) 0.90 (0.62, 1.26) 0.91 (0.62, 1.30)

    Fixed

    1mg

    2mg

    3mg

    4mg

    8mg

    16mg

    24mg

    Ramosetron

    1.20 (0.70, 2.11) 1.27 (0.53, 2.95) 1.20 (0.67, 2.18) 1.24 (0.67, 2.38) 1.16 (0.48, 2.78) 1.19 (0.66, 2.16) 1.24 (0.66, 2.40)

    Fixed 0.3mg

    0.9mg

    Tropisetron

    0.85 (0.43, 1.76)

    0.83 (0.33, 2.06) 0.85 (0.43, 1.63)

    0.86 (0.44, 1.67) 0.75 (0.02, 7.20) 0.86 (0.42, 1.73) 0.85 (0.43, 1.76) 0.86 (0.25, 2.59) 0.86 (0.43, 1.67) 0.85 (0.43, 1.75)

    Fixed

    0.5mg

    2mg

    5mg

    Fixed Effects

    Random Effects (with dose consistency)

    Independent Effects

    Random Effects (no dose consistency)

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    5-HT3 receptor antagonists for surgery

    FE model RE model with no dose consistency

    RE model with dose consistency

    Independent dose-effects with no dose consistency

    𝜏2 (95% CrI)

    0.01 (0.00, 0.10)

    0.01 (0.00, 0.10)

    0.01 (0.00, 0.12)

    0.04 (0.00, 0.47)

    𝜎2 (95% CrI)

    0.01 (0.00, 0.08)

    0.00 (0.00, 0.07)

    DIC 109.44 110.86 111.02 133.68

    D 90.29 90.42 89.91 97.77

    pD 19.15 20.44 21.11 35.91

    Data points

    82 82 82 82

    The design by treatment interaction model suggested consistency on both treatment (χ2=2.46, P-value= 0.7829, τ2=0.00) and dose (χ2=14.35, P-value=0.6423, τ2=0.00) levels

    5HT3 surgery – Arrhythmia

    Spiegelhalter et al J R Stat Soc Ser B Stat Methodol 2002

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Illustrative Example 2

    Aim

    To estimate the relative efficacy of anti-VEGF agents at different dosages

    Anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) drugs to treat patients with wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD)

    • Anti-VEGF drugs are injected into the eye where they inhibit the

    abnormal angiogenesis that underlies many retinal conditions

    associated with vision loss

    • It is unclear whether these agents have equivalent efficacy, and specifically whether

    there are certain doses that patients would benefit from when comparing these

    different drugs CADTH Therapeutic Review 2015

    Treatment Abbreviation Dose (mg) Placebo PLAC Ranibizumab RANI 0.3mg, 0.5mg, 2mg,

    Bevacizumab BEVA 1.25mg, 2.5mg Aflibercept AFLI 0.5mg, 2mg, 4mg Triamcinolone acetonide TRIAM 4mg

    Photodynamic therapy with verteporfin PDT Standard fluence, reduced fluence

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Illustrative Example 2

    Anti-VEGF drugs to treat patients with wet AMD

    CADTH Therapeutic Review 2015

    • Adults (≥ 18 years) with wet AMD

    • Databases searched: MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled

    Trials; Grey literature (trial protocols) – up to October 2015

    • Two dichotomous outcomes were considered: vision gain & vision loss

    • 35 RCTs were eligible after the screening process

    • Exclusion:

    compared the same treatment at the same dose (8 studies).

    did not report vision gain outcome (3 studies) or vision loss outcome (3

    studies).

    • In total, 24 studies were included in the analysis for both outcomes

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Anti-vascular endothelial growth factor

    Vision gain: 24 studies, 9444 patients, 5 treatments, 11 doses

    Vision loss: 24 studies, 8311 patients, 6 treatments, 12 doses

    RANI – 0.5 mg

    RANI – 0.3 mg

    RANI – 2 mg BEVA – 1.25 mg

    BEVA – 2.5 mg

    AFLI – 0.5 mg

    AFLI – 2 mg

    AFLI – 4 mg

    PLAC PDT - standard

    PDT - reduced

    RANI

    BEVA

    AFLI

    PLAC

    PDT

    RANI

    BEVA AFLI

    PLAC

    PDT TRIAM

    RANI – 0.5 mg

    RANI – 0.3 mg

    RANI – 2 mg BEVA – 1.25 mg

    BEVA – 2.5 mg

    AFLI – 0.5 mg

    AFLI – 2 mg

    AFLI – 4 mg

    PLAC PDT- standard

    PDT - reduced

    TRIAM – 4 mg

    Treatment Level

    Dose Level

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Anti-vascular endothelial growth factor Vision gain: 24 studies, 9444 patients, 5 treatments, 11 doses

    Treatment Level

    Fixed Effects

    Independent Effects

    Random Effects (no dose consistency)

    Random Effects (with dose consistency)

    Dose Level

    RANI vs PLAC

    BEVA vs PLAC

    AFLI vs PLAC

    PDT vs PLAC

    8.46 (5.04,14.09)

    8.45 (4.93,14.13)

    7.93 (4.57,13.47)

    7.72 (4.54,12.76)

    6.80 (3.63,12.26)

    6.70 (3.48,12.31)

    6.66 (3.24,13.08)

    6.33 (2.88,13.03)

    7.74 (3.65,15.58)

    7.65 (3.43,15.87)

    7.87 (3.74,15.25)

    5.38 (2.22,11.85)

    3.09 (1.42,7.59)

    3.15 (1.35,8.05)

    3.13 (1.32,8.19)

    3.54 (1.23,11.00)

    OR (95%CrI) Treatment Comparison

    2.2 1 10 20

    Odds Ratio

    Active better Placebo better

    RANI-0.3mg vs PLAC

    RANI-0.5mg vs PLAC

    RANI-2mg vs PLAC

    BEVA-1.25mg vs PLAC

    BEVA-2.5mg vs PLAC

    AFLI-0.5mg vs PLAC

    AFLI-2mg vs PLAC

    AFLI-4mg vs PLAC

    PDT-reduced vs PLAC

    PDT-standard vs PLAC

    8.44 (4.08,17.76) 7.50 (4.69,12.03) 7.18 (4.41,11.64) 8.47 (4.07,17.64) 8.50 (5.20,13.52) 8.76 (5.27,14.17) 8.42 (4.05,17.55) 7.79 (4.35,13.49) 7.30 (3.14,16.09) 6.70 (2.89,14.62) 6.87 (3.71,11.84) 7.07 (3.74,12.41) 6.69 (2.83,14.75) 6.50 (3.03,13.03) 5.62 (1.80,16.49) 7.65 (3.00,18.79) 7.82 (4.01,14.30) 7.77 (3.76,14.98) 7.67 (2.97,18.82) 8.61 (4.39,15.93) 9.20 (4.50,17.78) 7.63 (2.98,18.47) 7.35 (2.82,14.94) 2.22 (0.33,11.29)

    3.13 (1.19,9.26) 3.19 (1.28,8.72)

    4.20 (0.74,25.26) 3.14 (1.20,9.16) 3.07 (1.39,7.12) 2.99 (1.35,7.28)

    OR (95%CrI) Treatment Comparison

    .3 1 9 27

    Active better

    Placebo better

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Anti-vascular endothelial growth factor - SUCRA

    Vision gain: 24 studies, 9444 patients, 5 treatments, 11 doses

    Treatment Level

    PD

    T

    Treatment hierarchy according to the SUrface under the Cumulative RAnking curve

    Salanti JCE 2009; Veroniki et al JCE 2016

    Dose Level

    Circles from outside in refer to: 1st: Fixed Effects model 2nd: Random Effects (no dose consistency) 3rd: Random Effects (with dose consistency) 4th: Independent Effects

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Anti-VEGF - Vision Gain

    FE model RE model with no dose consistency

    RE model with dose consistency

    Independent dose-effects with no dose consistency

    𝜏2 (95% CrI)

    0.09 (0.02, 0.29)

    0.04 (0.00, 0.23)

    0.06 (0.00, 0.24)

    0.07 (0.00, 0.29)

    𝜎2 (95% CrI)

    0.05 (0.00, 0.23)

    0.02 (0.00, 0.33)

    DIC 99.64 99.03 99.18 102.43

    D 59.1 57.58 58.86 59.06

    pD 40.54 41.45 40.32 43.37

    Data points

    55 55 55 55

    The design by treatment interaction model suggested consistency on the dose level: (χ2=1.94, P-value=0.585, τ2=0.08) – Consistency cannot be assessed on the treatment level

    Spiegelhalter et al J R Stat Soc Ser B Stat Methodol 2002

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Anti-vascular endothelial growth factor Vision loss: 24 studies, 8311 patients, 6 treatments, 12 doses

    Treatment Level

    Fixed Effects

    Independent Effects

    Random Effects (no dose consistency)

    Random Effects (with dose consistency)

    Dose Level

    RANI vs PLAC

    BEVA vs PLAC

    AFLI vs PLAC

    PDT vs PLAC

    TRIAM vs PLAC

    0.11 (0.08,0.16) 0.11 (0.07,0.17) 0.12 (0.07,0.25) 0.15 (0.09,0.25) 0.10 (0.06,0.17) 0.10 (0.06,0.18) 0.11 (0.05,0.30) 0.15 (0.06,0.33) 0.10 (0.05,0.18) 0.10 (0.05,0.20) 0.09 (0.04,0.20) 0.06 (0.02,0.18) 0.45 (0.33,0.60) 0.44 (0.30,0.63) 0.92 (0.28,2.76) 0.90 (0.40,2.01) 0.91 (0.42,2.03) 0.91 (0.38,2.21) 0.40 (0.16,0.71) 0.29 (0.16,0.49)

    OR (95%CrI) Treatment Comparison

    0 .1 1 .8 3

    Odds Ratio

    Placebo better

    Active better

    RANI-0.3mg vs PLAC

    RANI-0.5mg vs PLAC

    RANI-2mg vs PLAC

    BEVA-1.25mg vs PLAC

    BEVA-2.5mg vs PLAC

    AFLI-0.5mg vs PLAC

    AFLI-2mg vs PLAC

    AFLI-4mg vs PLAC

    PDT-reduced vs PLAC

    PDT-standard vs PLAC

    TRIAM-4mg vs PLAC

    0.11 (0.07,0.20) 0.11 (0.07,0.16) 0.10 (0.07,0.16) 0.11 (0.07,0.20) 0.11 (0.07,0.16) 0.11 (0.07,0.17) 0.11 (0.06,0.20) 0.14 (0.08,0.40) 0.30 (0.10,0.96) 0.10 (0.05,0.20) 0.10 (0.06,0.17) 0.10 (0.06,0.18) 0.10 (0.05,0.20) 0.12 (0.06,0.38) 0.21 (0.06,0.80) 0.10 (0.04,0.22) 0.09 (0.05,0.18) 0.09 (0.05,0.19) 0.10 (0.04,0.22) 0.10 (0.05,0.19) 0.10 (0.05,0.20) 0.10 (0.04,0.22) 0.08 (0.02,0.21) 0.02 (0.00,0.33) 0.91 (0.36,2.35) 0.33 (0.12,0.59) 0.18 (0.06,0.45) 0.91 (0.36,2.37) 0.46 (0.34,0.62) 0.47 (0.35,0.64) 0.44 (0.26,0.73) 0.92 (0.41,2.00) 0.90 (0.40,2.01)

    OR (95%CrI) Treatment Comparison

    1 .3 2.5

    Odds Ratio

    Placebo better Active better

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Anti-vascular endothelial growth factor - SUCRA

    Vision loss: 24 studies, 8311 patients, 6 treatments, 12 doses

    Treatment Level

    Treatment hierarchy according to the SUrface under the Cumulative RAnking curve

    Salanti JCE 2009; Veroniki et al JCE 2016

    Dose Level

    Circles from outside in refer to: 1st: Fixed Effects model 2nd: Random Effects (no dose consistency) 3rd: Random Effects (with dose consistency) 4th: Independent Effects

    BEVA

    PDT

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Anti-VEGF - Vision loss

    FE model RE model with no dose consistency

    RE model with dose consistency

    Independent dose-effects with no dose consistency

    𝜏2 (95% CrI)

    0.02 (0.00, 0.16)

    0.02 (0.00, 0.17)

    0.02 (0.00, 0.16)

    0.02 (0.00, 0.17)

    𝜎2 (95% CrI)

    0.01 (0.00, 0.17)

    0.08 (0.00, 0.93)

    DIC 97.57 98.70 96.93 98.44

    D 61.32 60.13 58.04 56.85

    pD 36.25 38.57 38.9 41.59

    Data points

    54 54 54 54

    The design by treatment interaction model suggested consistency on the dose level: (χ2=1.17, P-value=0.761, τ2=0.00) – Consistency cannot be assessed on the treatment level

    Spiegelhalter et al J R Stat Soc Ser B Stat Methodol 2002

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Summary…

    Modelling dose-effects in NMA and accounting for the intervention-dose relationship:

    • Adds to borrow strength in estimating dose-effects within treatment classes • Overcomes problems with sparse data in the treatment networks • Can incorporate studies that compare the same treatment at different doses • Allows the identification of not only the best treatment in a network, but

    also the most effective dose • Increases power compared to carrying out several independent subgroup

    analyses, lumping or extreme splitting approaches • May provide additional insight on heterogeneity, inconsistency, intervention

    ranking, and hence decision-making

    Why is it important to model dose-effects in NMA?

    Different approaches used to classify treatments or model dose-effects in a network may result in important variations in interpretations drawn from NMA

    But….

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Summary…

    The available approaches cannot model studies that compare combinations of treatments in a single node (e.g., A+B vs. C+D)

    Dose-effect models do not always explain inconsistency. Inconsistency may still be evident due to an imbalance in the distribution of effect modifiers across comparisons NMA models require consistency in at least one (e.g., treatment) level.

    Consistency should be evaluated at each level it is assumed

    An IPD-NMA is the optimal approach to explore these factors. Hence, it

    is imperative to advance NMA models addressing dose-effects using IPD, improving interpretability of NMA results

    But….

    Studies are needed to establish and advance IPD-NMA

    addressing dose-effects to make results more useful for decision-making

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Future Work Develop dose-response NMA models allowing to impose structural

    relationships between the basic parameters Use reduced forms of standard NMA models where all doses and treatments are

    conceptualized as separate treatments (accounting for between study within dose level variance)

    Potentially introduce fractional polynomials in these models

    Develop hierarchical models that relax the consistency assumption in dose and

    treatment levels Use higher dimension design specific inconsistency parameters than the standard

    NMA models, so that all studies receive appropriate inconsistency parameters related to their treatment-doses

    Extend all models including the between-dose-category level (e.g., low,

    recommended, high category of doses) We are currently working on the statistical code for the random dose-effects within

    different dose categories model

    Extend dose-response NMA models including IPD.

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    1. Del Giovane C, Vacchi L, Mavridis D, Filippini G, Salanti G. Network meta-analysis models to account for variability in treatment definitions: application to dose effects. Statistics in Medicine 2013; 32:25–39

    2. Donegan S, Williamson P, D'Alessandro U, et al. Assessing the consistency assumption by exploring treatment by covariate interactions in mixed treatment comparison meta-analysis: individual patient-level covariates versus aggregate trial-level covariates. Statistics in medicine 2012;31(29):3840-57.

    3. Nikolakopoulou A, Chaimani A, Veroniki AA, Vasiliadis HS, Schmid CH, Salanti G. PLoS One. 2014 22;9(1):e86754. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0086754.

    4. Owen RK, Tincello DG, Keith RA. Network meta-analysis: development of a three-level hierarchical modeling approach incorporating dose-related constraints. Value Health 2015 18(1):116-26. doi: 10.1016/ j.jval.2014.10.006.

    5. Salanti G, Marinho V, Higgins JP. A case study of multiple-treatments meta-analysis demonstrates that covariates should be considered. J Clin Epidemiol. 2009;62(8):857-64

    6. Spiegelhalter DJ BN, Carlin BP, Van Der Linde A. Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit. J R Stat Soc Ser B Stat Methodol 2002;64(64):57

    7. Tricco AC, Soobiah C, Blondal E, Veroniki AA, Khan PA, Vafaei A, et al. Comparative safety of serotonin (5-HT3) receptor antagonists in patients undergoing surgery: A systematic review and network meta-analysis, BMC Medicine. 2015; 13:136

    8. Thomas S, Lillie E, Adams J, et al. Anti–vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) agents for the treatment of retinal conditions. CADTH Therapeutic Review, 2015

    9. Veroniki AA, Mavridis D, Higgins JP, Salanti G. Statistical evaluation of inconsistency in a loop of evidence: a simulation study informed by empirical evidence. BMC Medical Research Methodology 2014; 14:106

    10. Veroniki AA, Straus SE, Fyraridis A, Tricco AC. The rank-heat plot is a novel way to present the results from a network meta-analysis including multiple outcomes. J. Clin. Epidemiol. 2016; pii: S0895-4356(16)00153-0

    11. Warren FC,AbramsKR,SuttonAJ.Hierarchical Bayesian networkmeta-analysis models to address sparsity of events and differing treatment classifications with regard to adverse outcomes. Stat Med 2014;33:2449–66.

    12. White IR, Barret JK, Jackson D, Higgins JPT. Consistency and inconsistency in multiple treatments meta-analysis: model estimation using multivariate meta-regression. Research Synthesis Methods 2012;3(2):111-25.

    References…

  • Knowledge Translation, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Special thanks to:

    • My supervisor and mentors:

    Dr. Sharon Straus, Dr. Andrea Tricco

    • Co-authors:

    Dr. Cinzia Del Giovane, Dr. Daniel Jackson, Ms. Sonia Thomas, Mr. Erik Blondal, Dr. Kednapa Thavorn

    • CIHR Banting Postdoctoral Fellowship Program

    E-mail: [email protected]